"Bin" there, Done that: Uncharacteristic penalties trip up Carolina
by Carolyn Christians on Oct 11, 2009 6:51 PM EDT
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Print"I don't know what it is, if the referees don't like our new coach or what, but we've been the least-penalized team the last couple years," Eric Staal said after the loss in Tampa Bay Saturday night. "We've got to find a way and make sure we stay out of that box."
Five games into the season, the fans, the players and the coaches of the Carolina Hurricanes have got to be wondering "what's up with that?" as the most glaring difference from previous years can be found under the column heading "Penalties". Typically among the most disciplined teams in the NHL for PIM/game in previous years, the Hurricanes have plunged to the bottom of the pile after another 7 minors in last night's game in Tampa Bay, with a total of 122 penalty minutes assessed this season. Only the Pittsburgh Penguins have more (at 123 minutes - another anomaly I'll let the guys at Pensburgh sort out). With so much data to sample, I sorted out the numbers for your consideration.
First off, breaking out the major penalties and misconducts related to fighting, the numbers show that in those first 2 games against the Flyers and Bruins, the Hurricanes were facing teams with a reputation for rough play - and it comes as no surprise to see the minutes reflect exactly that style. I think we'd all agree with Coach Paul Maurice in praising Andrew Alberts, Jay Harrison and Tom Kostopoulos for their willingness to take the Bruins on last weekend (even though their choice in sparring partners was, in hindsight, somewhat ambitious).
But look what is leftover in Minor Penalties, those nagging 2 minutes in the box that set up the 5 on 4 advantage for the Hurricanes' opponents and puts the Penalty Kill Units to the test - over and over and over again.
|
Game (opponent) |
TOTAL CAR PIM |
Majors and misconducts (minutes) |
Minors (minutes) |
|
PHI |
29 |
15 |
14 |
|
BOS |
44 |
20 |
24 |
|
TBL |
21 |
5 |
16 |
|
FLA |
14 |
0 |
14 |
|
TBL |
14 |
0 |
14 |
|
TOTALS |
122 |
40 |
82 |
Can you believe the most-disciplined team in the 2008-09 season (when Carolina averaged less than 10 minutes/game) now finds itself at the rock-bottom of the league, drawing 41 calls for 2-minute minor penalties? (the stats at NHL.com say 39 - but even they missed a couple when you compile the game sheets). The next worst teams are the Flyers and Penguins, each with "only" 33 minors in their first five games. That puts the Canes 25% ahead of the tied-for-28th worst teams. It's gonna be awhile before they climb out of this basement.
Following the jump is a breakdown of "the minors" - what, how, who and why we should care.
Not all "Minors" are created equal
In the online edition of the Falls Church (Virginia) News-Press last week, writer Mike Hume, analyzing a similar problem with the Washington Capitols, made this observation:
Not all penalties are created equal.... A co-worker of mine used to work in the NHL some years ago and the team had his staff differentiate between aggression penalties (such as roughing and cross checking) and positioning penalties (holding, hooking, tripping, interference, etc.). The thinking was that aggression penalties weren't all bad, as you often get a side benefit of intimidation in addition to any physical pain you inflict upon your opponent. If you board your opponent, sure, you go to the sin bin, but that player is going to think twice about going into the corners again. Positioning penalties on the other hand tell you when your team is getting out-skated and your players need to clutch and grab at other players to prevent prime offensive opportunities. There's no benefit on these penalties, as they just illustrate that your opponent is out-classing you and you have to break the rules to even the odds.
So how does this theory apply to the Canes after 5 penalty-filled outings? Here's what I found when I further differentiated between all those minor penalties.
|
Game (opponent) |
Minor penalties called |
||
|
Minors |
Aggression |
Positional |
|
|
PHI |
7 |
2 |
5 |
|
BOS |
12 |
4 |
8 |
|
TBL |
8 |
1 |
7 |
|
FLA |
7 |
1 |
6 |
|
TBL |
7 |
0 |
7 |
|
TOTALS |
41 |
8 |
33 |
Only eight of the 41 (< 20%) of the minor penalties are for aggression (the so-called "good kind": cross-checking and roughing). The balance are all those whistles for tripping, hooking, interference, ugly positional penalties that, if the premise is correct, truly reflect a team struggling to contain its opponent.
Let's name names
| Player | # of minors |
| Sergei Samsonov | 5 |
| Jay Harrison | 4 |
| Matt Cullen | 3 |
| Eric Staal | 3 |
| Rod Brind`Amour | 2 |
| Andrew Alberts | 2 |
| Jussi Jokinen | 2 |
| Joni Pitkanen | 2 |
| Stephane Yelle | 2 |
| Niclas Wallin | 2 |
Another five Hurricanes have just one call for a "positional" minor. This leaves only five Hurricanes who haven't yet "done that". Let's give props to:
Aaron Ward,Tuomo Ruutu, Tom Kostopoulos, Tim Conboy, Erik Cole.
It's worth noting that of those five, Conboy and Cole have significantly less ice time than the others. Also, Alberts and Harrison have been tremendous physical forces on the ice, racking up some monster hits at a pace Raleigh fans haven't seen since Tuomo Ruutu rode into town. And then there's the officiating which has been sharply criticized here at Canes Country in postgame conversations, particularly those questionable calls on the very smart and speedy veteran Sergei Samsonov, who finds himself at the top of this rogues' gallery above.
So, you say, this is a lot of numbers. What does it mean? Why does it matter?
Caniacs, it's hockey, right? It all boils down to putting the puck in the net. After 5 games, the Hurricanes have allowed 17 goals as shown here:
|
Game (opp) |
W or L |
Score (Canes first) |
PK% |
PP goals allowed |
ES goals allowed |
|
PHI |
L |
0-2 |
60% |
2 |
0 |
|
BOS |
L |
2-7 |
50% |
4 |
2 |
|
TBL |
W |
2-1 |
80% |
1 |
0 |
|
FLA |
W |
7-2 |
100% |
0 |
2 |
|
TBL |
L |
2-5 |
83% |
1 |
4 |
|
TOTALS |
|
14-17 |
75% |
8 |
9 |
Of those 17 goals, 8 of them, a whopping 47% came when the Canes were shorthanded. So while the PK % is not terrible and puts the Hurricanes squad at a respectable 19th in the NHL, one shy of half the goals allowed came while someone in a Canes sweater sat out, cooling their heels (or his knee, in the case of one big Finn), in the box.
So, I ask you:
-
What is your response to this new and unfamiliar phenomenon for our Hurricanes?
-
Is this something that will fix itself as the players gel in their roles and responsibilities?
-
Do you agree the Canes are feeling out-classed at times and are forced to break the rules to try and break up their opponents' play?
-
As easy as it is to blame the officiating, and it isn't without cause, I think we've all seen that the majority of the calls were reasonable.
-
Is it all on Mo, as Eric Staal kids in his comments at the top - is he forcing the players to be more aggressive? Or do you agree that those highly penalized players should be tagged as "lazy" or "outclassed" and should shoulder the blame for our troubles at this point in the season?
-
And, looking ahead to the Penguins this Wednesday and 76 more games after that, what do the Hurricanes need to do to stop the bleeding?
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HM you continue to impress me-excellent work
Maybe I missed it, but what does high-sticking count as? Based on Sammy’s minor count, I would assume it’s a positional penalty.
This is going to sound weird and I may get alot of flack for it, but I don’t have a problem with our aggression penalties which, thus far, were all two-sided IIRC. We got pushed around too much last season and I don’t see that trend continuing as much this year. The positional penalties are concerning because I do think alot of them stem from us being one step behind the opponent. However, some of this is on the refs; some of their calls (not just in our games, but other games as well) have just been bad whistles. That being said, we have to figure out a way to either get sneakier or get comfortable enough with our game and skill level so as to not put ourselves in a position to even be called for a penalty, no matter how whistle happy the refs are.
Appreciate your kind comments. More number crunching than anything. Certainly pertinent.
Yep – High-sticking is “positional” from what I’ve read. Rare is the player trying to aggressively move around and intimidate his opponent with a stick – and if it was perceived as intentional battering, instead of poor or irresponsible stick control, I would think both the officials and on-ice “enforcers” would respond accordingly.
And we all saw how that double-minor on Sammy vs Philly opening night was bogus, but here it (and all the fallout with the 2 PP goals and the loss that night) is in the stats. It is what it is.
Actually, I think I’m more concerned about the habits of the last 3 games than those first 2.
Last – Yes – I agree with you and the original source that aggression penalties (of which we have had 8 so far) are potentially “good” and may have some return-on -investment (time spent in box). It’s those other 33 PK’s we need to worry about.
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by Carolyn Christians on Oct 11, 2009 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s what I figured although I could see a case being made for high sticking being an aggression penalty especially if it’s done intentionally. But like you said, I would also expect a different response for an intentional versus an incidental high stick.
I sincerely hope that time is spent impressing upon the team that the clutching and grabbing has to stop, whatever the underlying cause may be (which I firmly believe is a combination of them getting frustrated when things don’t go their way and not having enough confidence in their game to dictate tempo). This will be a very dangerous trend if it’s allowed to continue.
spectacular post hockeymom
looking at your breakdown, 4 of the 6 highest offenders are forwards. The Canes focus on being bigger on defense doesn’t seem to be creating more penalties, it’s the guys with the puck that are getting whistled. Take away the conspiracy theories, and I think our top offensive lines are feeling a lot of pressure to produce goals and are getting chippy when they don’t. With the exception of the FLA game the Canes are scoring less than 2 goals per contest — and the forwards are feeling the pressure to get something done. I really think that when Pits comes back it will help the offense get a better flow. I just hope he’s not hurt worse than the team lets on.
Skating will fix the penalty problem. Its the same ailment this team seems to face every year, they need to skate hard game in and game out. I wouldnt call any of the losses as being outclassed or outskilled, just outworked.
FIrst off, it seems that two penalties per game are phantom penalties. Sergei’s four miutes for high sticking, when his stick is on the ice, Alberts or harrison for knocking the man with the puck down when he was skating with him, etc. But even if you take out ten penalties on blatantly bad calls, you still have 31 infractions.
I wonder how much of our current penalty problem comes from the fact that last year we were the least penalized team until we got to the playoffs? It seems like again and again when people were looking at how many times we had penalties called on us against Pittsburgh the lack of penalties during the regular season was brought up. Add that to the general opinion that Pittsburgh games are called differently, and it was a bit of egg onthe face of the NHL. Having us be highly penalized now is an easy way to make up for that. Another contributing factor could be the beginning of the new season, and maybe the NHL is calling little stuff we got away with last year a little tighter.
Last nights penalties I attribute to two things-the guys were not up for the game, looked lackadaisical most of the time, only played with heart after going down 2-1. Also, the lightning appeared to be helping the penalties along. One tripping call was obviously a dive, Brindy’s holding the stick looked like the result of the TB player, not brindy, one tripping call I could never even see a lightning player hit the ice.
And the interference calls made last night (on both teams) were based on a much tighter reading of the regulation than I have seen previously.
First off, awesome work, HM!
Second, the way the game was called for Canes games changed at the end of last season. There was a widely publicized article about how the Canes were the least penalized team and their opponents drew the most penalties. The Canes started to get called for the close ones and the other team had glaring penalties not called ever since, including through the playoffs. It seems that things are simply continuing when you look at some of the phantom calls they’ve had while the other team gets away with some crazy stuff. Yes, many of the penalties are deserved, but the bigger problem is when the other team gets away with exactly the same thing or worse right after the Canes are called for something. It seems pretty obvious that the refs are looking for things to call against the Canes above and beyond what is normal, right or wrong.
Still, no matter why the refs are calling more penalties against the Canes, they need to learn to adjust. Sitting back and crying foul that it is unfair will do nothing to win games (though, it seems to have worked for the Kitties whining about the Canes diving, not that it’s helped them much). Coming up with conspiracy theories of why it is happening won’t do any good, either. If the refs are going to call anything that even slightly looks like it might be a penalty, then they better be careful not to do that. Bottom line.
Overall the refs do seem to be calling more penalties than usual. Is it something that will fade as the season goes on, or is it something that will define this season? It will be very interesting to watch as the season unfolds, and regardless something that the Canes need to work on.
by Pirate Caniac on Oct 12, 2009 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions
well…. good, bad, or indifferent…. it has to change. If they know the refs are calling a game a certain way then they need to learn how to adjust. Even if the penalty kill was at 90% Having all these penalties really messes up the flow of the game.
I believe that as a 5-on-5 team the Hurricanes can keep up with anybody in the league. But there have been so many penalties that we haven’t been able to see the entire potential of the team. Killing the penalties puts a heavy load on the penalty killers and it eventually slows everyone down…. which (sometimes) causes more penalties….
You can only blame the officiating so much…. but either way… the team needs to adjust to the way the games are being called….
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Oct 11, 2009 8:15 PM EDT reply actions
Good work HM!!
I for one and extremely proud of Ruutu for not taking any of these “positional” minors that you speak of.
I still say the increase of the minors is a mixture of 1) lack of preseason games 2) the NHL calling an obtuse amount of calls early in the season to “set a tone” through out the league 3) the team is a a bit larger- and slower and finally 4) backlash from the league for spoiling their party during the playoffs last year!!!
I am a Canes fan… therefore a conspiracy theorist!!! ;)
by packpigskinfan25 on Oct 11, 2009 8:27 PM EDT reply actions
First, HM, outstanding article! This subject has been bothering me so thanks for breaking it down. Definitely thought provoking.
Second, ^^ I agree with Mateo. You have to play the game the way it’s called. No excuses.
Third, I’m a big fan of Eric Staal but I really didn’t like his “refs must not like the coach” comment at all. The coach isn’t the one taking the penalties, Staaly!
Last but not least… Ruuty for the Lady Byng! hahahahahaha
Oh, I’ve totally jinxed it, he’ll be good for at least a hook AND a boarding call against the Pens. Maybe an interference too.
by Jamie Kellner on Oct 11, 2009 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Good news! charging and boarding are regarded as aggression penalties, serving a purpose, altho they might take Ruu out of the running for Lady Byng.
Interference and hooking are not so good.
My last thought, if there’s one thing Ruuty is not, it’s lackadaisical. Right up there with Rosey – whose only bad penatly was that ridiculous goalie interference in the first game vs TBL.
But then – repeating what others have pointed out, you can’t keep blaming the refs. (Pits and Cully each got 2 minutes for bad sportsmanship doing that.)
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by Carolyn Christians on Oct 11, 2009 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s the thing-if I were to pick who would be most likely to spend extended stays in the box, the last guy I would pick would be Sammy. It would be guys like Ruutu due solely to the way he goes about the game. Yet that’s not the case so I’m left trying to figure out that discrepancy as well.
I have to wonder what Pits said in order to get the extra 2 minutes. He must have used all 15 of his English words at once. Or maybe the refs are fluent in Finnish.
Or maybe the refs have a copy of this.
by Jamie Kellner on Oct 11, 2009 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions
LTD – which of those words should I use when I’m trying to get Ruutu’s attention for an autograph after practice?
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by Carolyn Christians on Oct 12, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I want to be there
when she flashes him.
I think my camera works.
;-D
A conservative is someone who wants to get rid of all illegal immigrants,
Just as soon as those guys finish mowing his yard and building the shed
Samsonov... the new Chris Pronger
I say send the refs down to the minors and let the NFL sign them off waivers if they want.
Remember when Mike Smith got Yelle in a headlock for what felt like 10 seconds, while the official stood there five feet away and watched. Why didn’t he put an end to that? I mean, Yelle could have easily gotten hurt. And the reaction after someone finally blew a whistle was like they were trying to give Smith the opportunity to let go, but when he didn’t, then they felt like they were obligated to penalize him… Carolina doesn’t get those benefits.
Also, John pointed out that Matt Cullen was hooked 3 times in the span of a couple seconds against TB last night… where were the whistles then?
Great job on the write-up, sorry to go off on a rant… but I too have been very frustrated with what I can only call unfair officiating.
The difference between them: Pronger is really two angry midgets in a uniform… and Sammy is just one.
Samsonov usually has one brilliant goal or assist for every time he stickhandles himself into a corner and turns over the puck or takes a stupid hooking penalty, so he more or less cancels himself out. So far this season his brilliant-to-boneheaded ratio has been out of whack. He’s already got 10 PIMs this season; he only had 28 in 81 games last season, and that was a career high! Hopefully this will even itself out.
Really good stats. I think it’s a little too early to draw any conclusions though. The Boston game was an anomaly ( I hope). And Sammy has a phantom double-minor and a ridiculous interference call against him. I ’d love to see this list every 10 games or so. Good Work.
So I have found one site that did some good number crunching of referees last season: http://gooseman-hockey.blogspot.com/2009/02/referee-data.html
On this blog there is information about the referee’s propensity for a home field advantage, when they tend tomake their calls, and other interesting data. Unfortunately it is all from last year.
I also found courtesy of Yahoo that not only are we in the top three for the most penalties, but we are also in the top three for having the most penalties called against our opponents.
Just to make clear, in the games I have watched, with the exception of the Philly power play goals, I don’t think the officials have determined the output of the game. Our lack of effort seems the more likely culprit for yesterday.
Repeted problems?
First of all, great post HM, very interesting stuff!!
Secondly, do i recall correctly that we had the exact same problems at the start of last year (perhaps not to this extent) in which we had a bad start to the season accompanied by a LOT of penalties? It then went down to Lavi to create some discipline to reduce the penalties which in turned reduced the GA which in turn reduced the losses etc etc… ?
Perhaps Mo just needs to replay whatever Lavi shouted at the players last year…
What's the ROI here?
If we’re gonna take stupid penalties, AT LEAST take some players out in the process. These candy-ass minors are crap.
Great job HM!
Getting away from the amount of goals allowed on the PK, this is also a huge detriment to the flow of the game and the ice time certain players play. Brind’Amour, Staal, Corvo and Cullen (and even Gleason and AWard right now with Joni out) are playing all-situations roles right now. The energy they have to expend on PK certainly takes away from what they’re capable of at even strength and when the Canes have the man advantage.
The Canes are a team that, at their best, role line after line at opponents and wear them down. Having the game broken up by penalty kills really hurts them, plus forces Maurice to come out of those PK situations with mixed forward lines and D pairings, further hurting continuity.
Again, GREAT analysis HM!
by Cory Lavalette on Oct 12, 2009 11:36 AM EDT reply actions
Thanks Cory – certainly means a lot coming from you with your always insightful head for this kind of thinking.
I thought later that I didn’t even get into what kind of demand and pressure this puts on Penalty Killer #1: Cam Ward. I wonder hom many of the shots he’s taken (and saved) have come when the Canes were shorthanded?
All-in-all, a terrible waste of energy and focus. And when Sammi is at the top of the list, you gotta think something just isn’t right.
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by Carolyn Christians on Oct 12, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
After reading and listening to anti-Canes fans,
ie, those that hate the Canes in particular or hockey in the south in general, seem to think that the “diver” Canes are finally getting what they should be getting.
It seems that some feel the Canes never got called before and dived their way to getting the PPs over the last few years.
Honestly, I think Staal has a point.
A conservative is someone who wants to get rid of all illegal immigrants,
Just as soon as those guys finish mowing his yard and building the shed
A great follow-up
Chip Alexander had a chance to ask Mo about the penalty problem after practice today and put Maurice’s comments up on Canes Now.
Nice to get some back-up.
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by Carolyn Christians on Oct 12, 2009 1:14 PM EDT reply actions
Paul Branecky agrees with you too HM. Very similar stuff to Chip’s article but with some injury/illness updates. The Finns are dropping like flies apparently.
Wow, very impressive article, stats, and insight. And no pictures from GQ mag? What’s up with that? I also think once Joni returns things will change, however, he didn’t practice today so it might be a while, and I would hate to think that one player would have that much affect on our team.
1 player=a house of crads
I too think his return will help, but who’s the next to go down? What wil it do?
Not sure how old evryone is here, but here is a lesson in history:
The “Dream Team” may have worked in bouncing a round ball in hoop, but most other sports putting together the best has almost always failed. The best individuals do not comprise the best team. The basic All Star team got slaughtered by the Russians only to be beat by Herb Brooks young miracle workers.
One of my concerns was by bringing this group together, would they meld and if so when? I thought the shortened pre-season was assinine, one these guys are always getting hurt, so let’s weed a few out and maybe find the consistant lines. The return Joni will be helpful, but may hurt some chemistry being built right now.
Here’s what you have been waiting for. The kids should be up here now. Sutter and Boychuck. While the TOI in games will be less than what they get now in Albany it is like dog years in comparisson. While the “wisdom” of sending them down is arguable, I think we all agree they will be up here and probably next year.
Sort of why I have been very critical of Rod and his lack of numbers. While he is playing better than the last couple years he’s not what he was 4 yrs ago and at 39 never will be. I think the team has an interesting shot this year, but they needed to be hitting on all pistons early and the time is now running out. Where as the kids would be gaining the chemistry that will be lost next summer.
I watched Stamkos the other night and he’s a big league player now, no more uber pressure, not the new kid on the block, but an accepted member of his team and a contributer.
I like tial by fire. I think these old guys and some of the others are soft. I also think a couple are not playing thier hardest. The kids would cure alot of that right out the door. Yes they would make rookie mistakes, they are gonna next year. I’d rather see the effort they would be putting out and us losing than see what I am seeing.
Just wanted to kick the horse to see how dead he really was…
A
yup - no racey photos
in response to hotchips:
I’m trying to rehabilitate my professional journalistic credibiltiy. I’m on the wagon for now. (at least till Ruutu does a Canes Corner. Can you imagine the line running out the door at lunchtime that day? )
I’ll let you know if it’s worth it in a couple months.
Thanks for pointing it out – positive reinforcement is always appreciated. :)
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by Carolyn Christians on Oct 12, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I noticed alot of horizontal sticks in the Pens game
lots of potential for hooking/slashing along with the odd call or two. It seemed like it was always an offensive player trying to make something out of nothing even if there was a good solid defensive line waiting for the Pens player. Seemed like the offense misconstrued “get back and play defense” as “swat the guy with your stick if you are out of position”
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