A Change Is Gonna Come: Uncovering Early Season Frauds
by Cory Lavalette on Oct 22, 2009 12:00 PM EDT
64 comments
We've reached right around the 1/10th pole of the NHL season, and as always there are several surprises around the NHL. The Colorado Avalanche, expected to be one of the worst — if not the worst — teams in the league, are off to a 6-1-1 start. Rangers rookie defenseman Michael Del Zotto has helped power the Blueshirts to the top of standings. And people are talking about Phoenix for reasons other than their "situation."
While many of these revelations may turn out to be the real thing, there are several that have big, flashing lights all around them. So without further ado, let's a take a team-by-team look around the league and say farewell to the players and trends that are sure to fizzle out in the coming weeks. (All statistics are through Tuesday's games)
Anaheim: Here's some good news for the Ducks: Bobby Ryan will shake out of his sophomore slump that has him with just one goal and one assist through the season's first seven games.
Atlanta: The fallacy in Blueland? Winning. The Thrashers are off to a 4-1-1 start, but only Ilya Kovalchuk (seven) and Rich Peverley (four) have scored more than once. Plus, the longer it takes for Kovalchuk to sign an extension, the worse the tension.
Boston: The injuries are mounting, but I certainly don't expect the B's — and defending Vezina Trophy winner Tim Thomas — to continue giving up 3.29 goals per game. Thomas' numbers — 2-3, 3.20 goal-against average, .896 save percentage — will improve, and so will the Bruins' win total.
Buffalo: Rookie Tyler Myers looks like the real deal on the Sabres blueline, but don't expect the lanky d-man to continue his point parade (1-3-4 in six games), especially since he has no points on the power play despite getting more than three minutes of ice time a night with the man advantage.
Calgary: Rene Bourque (4-7-11 in nine games) will stop will stop putting points up like Ray Bourque. The Flames winger is averaging 1.22 points per game — compared to just a hair more than half a point per game over his career.
Carolina: This has been hashed over again and again here at Canes Country, but Eric Staal will get things turned around. Want proof? His shooting percentage (7.7 percent this year vs. 11.5 for his career) is way down, as are his shots per game (3.71 this year vs. 4.54 last year). He's due.
Chicago: Say goodbye to Cristobal Huet's reign as an NHL No. 1. Last year he lost the top job to Nikolai Khabibulin, and this time around it looks like Antti Niemi is poised to snatch it away. The early season numbers for Huet are not good — 2-2-1, 3.25 goals-against average, .844 save percentage — while Niemi (3-0, 1.73, .912) has looked spectacular.
Colorado: I could find a million things that will go downhill eventually for the Avs, but I can guarantee they won't continue to convert on the power play at a league-high 30.3 percent, especially when they were tied for 25th last year (15.7) with Ryan Smyth and Joe Sakic in the lineup at least part of the time.
Columbus: Like Colorado, you can't expect to continue having extreme special team success (an absurd 96.6 percent penalty kill) for the whole season. But more importantly, I expect the wins to stop flowing with underrated Jan Hejda out of action for more than a month. In the team's first five games, he was a plus-8 and a workhorse for Ken Hitchcock.
Dallas: I fully expect the Stars to be firmly in the playoffs by Christmas. There's just too much to like in Big D not to think this team will be a contender: from a healthy Brendan Morrow; to young emerging stars James Neal and Jamie Benn; to a young defense that doesn't seem to be missing Sergei Zubov.
Detroit: An easy one: Pavel Datsyuk won't be goalless forever, injury or no injury.
Edmonton: New coach Pat Quinn has the Oilers buying in to his system, but you can't expect the Copper & Blue to continue to score 3.62 goals a game when they're averaging just 24 shots on goal.
Florida: It's not looking good in Florida, but expect David Booth (1-0-1, minus-5) and Cory Stillman (0-1-1) to get rolling.
Los Angeles: I'm officially putting an end to the "Jack Johnson, NHL superstar" parade. Johnson is severely outclassed by teammate Drew Doughty, but he's also — simply — not playing well. He's managed a goal, two assists and a team-worst minus-5 for an improved Kings team, is logging 2:24 of penalty kill time for a horrendous PK unit (68.4 percent so far), and has been on the ice for just seven goals for vs. 14 goals against.
Minnesota: Chuck Kobasew is already en route, but the biggest change coming to the Wild is more roster overhaul. Minnesota is getting just .33 goals per one goal scored by opponents during five-on-five play, and Brent Burns, James Sheppard, Owen Nolan and P-M Bouchard are all either underachieving or hurt.
Montreal: Carey "Jesus" Price is more likely to be dragged through the streets of Montreal than be anointed the Habs' savior at this point. His numbers are terrible (2-4, 3.36 goals-against average, .886 save percentage) and Jaroslav Halak is emerging as the real deal (2-1-1, 2.27, .907). Try "Scary" Price instead.
Nashville: The Predators may not ever be good this year, but I know they won't continue to have their special teams operate at an abysmal 70.9 percent combined (66.7 percent PK, 4.2 percent PP).
New Jersey: You can have Milan Lucic — I'll take David Clarkson any day of the week. Right here we're putting an end to the idea of Clarkson as a fighter. No one does more with 14 minutes a night than this Devil.
New York Islanders: Easy pickings here. Forward Matt Moulson has benefitted from playing with phenom John Tavares. Don't expect him to continue his point-per-game (4-3-7 in six games) pace.
New York Rangers: Marian Gaborik has played in every game. You know that won't continue.
Ottawa: In shipping out Dany Heatley, the Sens may have restored their team chemistry. But I can promise you Jarkko Ruutu (2-3-5) will not have outscored younger brother Tuomo (1-3-4) by season's end.
Philadelphia: Matt Carle is perhaps the least revered member of the Broad Street Bullies blueline, and you can bet he won't continue to pile up stats (1-7-8, plus-5) like he has through six games.
Phoenix: Dave Tippett's defense-first style will help the Desert Dogs when games this year, but even Patrick Roy can't put up numbers like Ilya Bryzgalov (5-1, 1.14 goals-against average, .953 save percentage) has for an extended period of time.
Pittsburgh: The Pens will finally feel the Cup hangover thanks to the injury to Sergei Gonchar. Pittsburgh was 18-4-4 in the regular season with Gonchar in the lineup last year — and just 27-24-5 without him.
San Jose: Who is Jason Demers? Who knows? But we do know he's won't keep putting up seven assists every nine games.
St. Louis: The Blues look like an average team right now, and that might not change. What will change is David Perron's seven-game pointless streak to start the season.
Tampa Bay: My lock of the article: Todd Fedoruk (one) will not score more goals than Vincent Lecavalier (zilcho) this season.
Toronto: The MakeBelieves will continue to be bad, but a mid-level NCAA team could do better than the 1-to-3 ratio in even-strength goals scored vs. goals against Toronto has so far.
Vancouver: Roberto Luongo is a notoriously slow starter. So his poor play out of the gate (3-5, 3.22 goals-against average, .879 save percentage) should be followed by his usual spectacular rest of the way.
Washington: I'm going to be bold on this final one: Say goodbye to Chris Clark's captaincy. Before the year is out, AO will be wearing the C.
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This from "ESPN-faux": Soon to drop to #32 in the Power Rankings
The team once known as the HARTFORD WHALERS, long live the whale!
Now we’ll find out for sure if those ungrateful fair weather fans from Carolina will follow a team that loses just as we so faithfully did for all of those years.
I expect to see that real soon.
A conservative is someone who wants to get rid of all illegal immigrants,
Just as soon as those guys finish mowing his yard and building the shed
maybe we should change our focus till things turn around....
How’s about Friday night we do a live game thread for the Albany game, since we can apparently watch it free online?
Then anyone who feels like watching the Canes (starting at 9pm) can leave the party while the rest of us dream of our once and future glory?
Or try to keep 2 conversations going at once for the truly ADD.
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by hockeymomof2 on Oct 22, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Sounds good to me,
unfortunately, I’ll be busy with company until about 9:00pm
But carrying on multiple conversations should be no biggy with this crowd seeing how many of us have all those voice talking to us inside our head already.
A conservative is someone who wants to get rid of all illegal immigrants,
Just as soon as those guys finish mowing his yard and building the shed
Even better… why don’t we call a few guys from Albany up and put a few veterans on Waivers… Something… ANYTHING to send a message to these guys that they need to wake up!!!
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Oct 22, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Staal is a key to Carolina…. But also notably missing are: Tuomo Ruutu, Chad LaRose, Serge Samsonov, Stephane Yelle, Tim Gleason, Joe Corvo, Joe Corvo, Joe Corvo, Aaron Ward, Joe Corvo…. oh… and Did I mention Chad LaRose or Tuomo Ruutu yet?
Also Rod Brind’Amour could be lumped in with our guys who are missing…. but I’ll cut the old guy some slack….
Bottom line is that we have a whole team of guys who (so far) have been just coasting through games…
I’m thinking we need to trade someone for the purpose of “sending a message…”
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Oct 22, 2009 12:32 PM EDT reply actions
I don’t know how Gleason and Ruutu get lumped into any kind of “here’s the problem” conversation. I think Rod is playing pretty well, too, actually. He’s on a 40-ish point pace and has looked good in his own end … what else do you need from your third-line center?
by Cory Lavalette on Oct 22, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I lumped them in because I haven’t seen Gleason since Opening night… and Ruutu had one shining moment in a shootout last week and took every game since then off…
If our team is going to win consistently…. every guy needs to show up for every game… it can’t just be Cam Ward and a couple other guys here and there….
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Oct 22, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
you couldn’t be more wrong. i actually laughed at my desk at work out loud reading this. So dumb, ruutu has brought it pretty consistently in comparison to the rest of the team. He’s not a superstar, don’t expect him to be but he plays good hard-nosed hockey. He’s one of the few players i certainly wouldn’t be pointing fingers at.
I might be dumb…. but if EVERYONE on the team does not start pulling their weight… they will be dead last.
And that is the truth.
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Oct 22, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Man you’re not dumb at all – It’s frustrating to watch this team right now, i think we can all agree with that…but I’m just saying ruutu is far from the biggest problem
Ruutu is not a huge problem at all… I was just naming people that I expect a little (or a lot) more from….
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Oct 22, 2009 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions
He hasn’t shown up, Jen… anyone who is not showing up 100% for every game is part of the problem…..
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Oct 22, 2009 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions
We’re watching different games, apparently.
by Cory Lavalette on Oct 22, 2009 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions
All I’m saying is that I expect more out of those guys that I named… The only guys on the team who are earning their money are Cam Ward, Jussi, and probably Ray Whitney….
we have to have the entire team….every guy….. giving 100% for 60 minutes every game…. or else we are screwed…
There really is not much to question about that…. so far 99% of our guys have only given about 80% effort… it is not good enough!
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Oct 22, 2009 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions
All I’m saying is, what more do you want out of Gleason? He’s been amazing … which I think we’ll all see tomorrow night without him.
by Cory Lavalette on Oct 22, 2009 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I want more out of everyone on the team!!! We are not winning… so EVERYONE needs to wake up and do more!!!
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Oct 23, 2009 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
But you didn’t say that. You said you “expect more out of those guys,” in which you included Gleason. I’m simply stating that I don’t believe Gleason’s effort or play to be one iota of the problem with the team’s overall play. You said the whole team is “coasting.”
Just not true from this vantage point.
by Cory Lavalette on Oct 23, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
And I didn’t lump Brind’Amour in w/ the rest of the guys because he is doing about what is expected of him… I think he is on pace to have a much better season…. But he still can’t win games by himself….
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Oct 22, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I am starting to be of the opinion that the biggest finger pointed should be behind the bench. I also think JR’s little short pre season experiment can be called a failure now as well.
As far as on ice, I really think this is a team with 0 chemistry. There isn’t enough hunger and willingness to suffer for it. Again, you may can blame the coach for that, or you can choose to blame the players. I mean certainly guys like Scott Walker are showing a hunger. Cam Ward has been the only thing going in some games. If we come out of this road trip with out a win, then heads such roll. You either turn it around now, or we start talking about draft picks.
I’m sure that it probably is too early to be flipping out and everything….
But since I have followed this team it has gone like this:
2000-2001 Barely made playoffs… got killed by New Jersey.
2001-2002 Won Southeast Division. Hell of a great playoff run. Loss to Detroit
2002-2003 Sucked a huge one. Missed playoffs
2003-2004 Sucked a huge one. Fired Coach. Missed playoffs
2004-2005 Lost Season to lockout… may have been a blessing
2005-2006 Amazing Season. Won Stanley Cup. Praise Jesus!
2006-2007 Sucked… but not as bad as it could have been. Missed Playoffs
2007-2008 Sucked… But again, not as bad as it could have been. Missed playoffs.
2008-2009 Start Slow. Fire coach. rehire old coach. Make a decent playoff run…
2009-2010 Off to a pretty bad start. Nobody on the team seems to care….
You can see that following this team has been somewhat like being in a dysfunctional relationship where there are all kinds of promises… but barely enough real good stuff to keep our fragile hopes up that it might actually turn into something worth while…….. It is getting old in a hurry!
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Oct 22, 2009 4:02 PM EDT reply actions
Guess y’all saw the latest from Colorado (via ice_chip)
Ward in net Vs Avs (no word if Leighton for Minny game)
Gleason out vs Avs, Harrison in
Gleason day to day after that.
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
I’d think every loss makes it less and less likely we see Leights anytime soon. As far as Timmy goes, day-to-day is better than 4-6 weeks.
which is crazy…. I know I sound like a broken record here… but:
Remember San Jose???
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Oct 22, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I do, but I also remember him falling apart in Philly. Until the rest of the team starts playing decently (which they were when he won in San Jose-not great but decently), I don’t know if putting Leights in would do any good. When Cam is one of the only ones trying on a nightly basis, it’s hard for the coach to sit him.
Maybe, just maybe, that’s EXACTLY what they need! They won’t have Cam to fall back and MAYBE they would actually start playing AND looking like a team???? not to mention all this crappy play is NOT helping Cams stats any?
Right now the glass is half-full of half-ass…. as a Mets fan… I can’t take this crap from my hockey team too….
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Oct 22, 2009 8:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Wow, Mets fan.....
I thought there was medication for that.
A conservative is someone who wants to get rid of all illegal immigrants,
Just as soon as those guys finish mowing his yard and building the shed
First the Mets and then the Canes. Your liver must be shot. I hope you’re not a Carolina Panthers fan…
Or a UNC Football fan
A conservative is someone who wants to get rid of all illegal immigrants,
Just as soon as those guys finish mowing his yard and building the shed
It would be interesting if the one of the only college football teams
in the area to make a Bowl game would be Duke.
I have no love or hatred for any college team (save I hate the fans during March Madness and hope all the teams fail) put the arrogance of some college fans here remind me of Yankee or Cowboys fans.
A conservative is someone who wants to get rid of all illegal immigrants,
Just as soon as those guys finish mowing his yard and building the shed
+1 The Mets better fire that sorry ass manager and bring back Bobby Valentine!
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Oct 23, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
I wish there were medication for it! I have been a Mets fan since childhood…. it is very much like being in an abusive relationship…. and for some reason I keep going back!!!
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Oct 23, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m not really concerned about Cam’s stats (I may catch a lot of flack for this, but frankly I don’t want him on the Olympic team, especially if we start turning it around and have a shot at the playoffs come February).
I’d like to say that you’re right and that not having Cam to bail them out would wake the team up. But unfortunately, I’m just not sure it would. It may for a game, but then when Cam came back in, I’m afraid they would revert right back to their previous ways.
I don’t know. Brodeur hasn’t looked spectacular and neither has Luongo so neither one of them are a lock as of yet. If the team pulled themselves together, Cam could have a shot. Again I’d rather he didn’t go and get beat up, but I wouldn’t rule out an invitation just yet.
lol… Ice_chip lost me when he was talking about the retired NBA jerseys in the rafters… even if it was a North Carolina NBA player….. still….
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Oct 22, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah – hockey is not his first love it seems.
IMHO, this was the most alarming tweet he’s made this afternoon:
Avs upset with shootout loss in Minn. Had two penalties for too many men on ice, one delay of game. Wild had 7 power plays, scored twice.</blockquote>
Hornet’s nest – Part V? When do we get to be the hornets? (or did we see it already: one-and-done against the Pens last week?)
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by hockeymomof2 on Oct 22, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
at this point I follow Chips tweets for their humorous value… I just laugh….
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Oct 22, 2009 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, come on, really? David Thompson wasn’t just another “North Carolina NBA player”. He’s a legend. He was Michael Jordan before Michael Jordan was Michael Jordan. He’s a hero around here, and his jersey’s in our (RBCC) rafters too.
I love my Canes as much as anyone, but I chose where I went to college partly because of David Thompson.
HELL YEAH!!
Tell ’em what the deal is!!!
by packpigskinfan25 on Oct 22, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions
If he is reporting on hockey then he needs to leave second-rate sports (such as the NBA) out of it….
College basketball barely passes…. the NBA is a complete joke…..
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Oct 22, 2009 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions
My direct reply to him was:
RT: @Ice_Chip #33 was Patric Roy. The NBA is not really a sport
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Oct 22, 2009 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions
we lost to the islanders…nuff said..somethings gotta change…this is what we get for letting MO plan out the season over the summer
by RU4RU on Oct 22, 2009 10:34 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I thought Mo had school work to do over the summer……
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Oct 23, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Myers
Though I agree that he may not average this many points all year (by the way it is 2-3-5, since he scored one in the 5-2 rout of the Panthers Wednesday night), I think he looks great this season, and the stats don’t tell the whole story. For a 19 year old, he does not look like a rookie at all. He does a great job of pinching and getting down low or crashing the net on the rush.
especially since he has no points on the power play despite getting more than three minutes of ice time a night with the man advantage
I don’t see this as a huge problem. I mean, yes, it is important to convert on man advantages, but I believe it is just as important to be able to score in 5-on-5 situations.
All that being said, I agree that he may not be a huge scorer…but that’s not what the Sabres were mainly concerned with. They needed a shakeup on D. Big time. I thought the addition of Montador would have been the big impact on the blue line, but it seems to be coming from an unlikely source in a rookie that is quickly becoming a fan favorite up in Western New York.
This concludes the rant of a Sabres fan. Enjoy the rest of the season :)
Agreed … I said that Myers looks like the real deal. I just wouldn’t want fans expecting him to have a 50-point season or something. He’s doing everything right, and right now the points are coming for him as well.
by Cory Lavalette on Oct 23, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
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