Mail Box Question- Does The Extra Attacker Truly Give an Advantage?
by Bob Wage on Nov 12, 2009 1:30 PM EST
15 comments
Canes Country Mail Box
We received an email a few days ago from Leslie asking why the Canes pull their goalie so often near the end of a game, leaving themselves vulnerable for an easy, empty net goal. She correctly pointed out that the club rarely scores on those opportunities, (actually they have yet to score a goal all year when pulling the goalie), yet when the opponent scores on the easy empty netter, it in affect ends the game.
I understand that having an extra forward on the ice can help the team to score, but doesn't the empty net allow the defense the better opportunity to score, thus negating any advantage the extra offensive player gives?
To answer Leslie's question, (and a couple of others that I have noticed in comments throughout the season), indeed pulling the goalie for an extra attacker does increase the attacking team's chances of scoring, much like a powerplay. Granted it is risky and the opposition is put in a much better position to score as well, but a team using this strategy is at a desperate point of the game when they need to score or they will lose anyway, so it seems worth the risk.
While most hockey fans are well aware of the intent and reasoning behind the tactic, most do not know what the success ratio is when employing the strategy. Gabe Desjardins, a statistician who runs SB Nation's Behind the Net, performed a study over the summer to see how often NHL teams actually score after pulling their goalies near the end of games.
Apparently, the league scoring average is about three times higher with the extra skater than if they did not pull the goalie, (from about 4% to 12%). So while the move does not pay off as well as a typical powerplay, it certainly does increase a team's chances to score enough to take the risk.
The opposition's chances of scoring go way up as well, as teams score almost at a 40 - 50% clip with an open net available. Still, most teams feel the risk is worth the potential reward.
Of course, it seems like the Hurricanes are pulling their goalie near the end of every game. The team is mired in a 13 game winless streak and has only won two games the entire season. They have employed the strategy more times than any other NHL team this season and unfortunately lead the league by allowing five empty net goals for their trouble.
One would think that eventually, the odds will catch up with them and they should score. Time will tell.
(Questions? send them to canescountry@gmail.com)
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It's like this:
You’re down by one with less than a minute or so to go.
Take the chance.
When all else fails, read the instruction manual.
Maybe any other or team or maybe another time. I think statisticly you have to stay 5-5. Our 5-4 PP sucks so bad, well, ‘nuff said. So my figurin’ is 5-5 is when the only limited success has occured (now pull a guy for two goalies…) on 5-5 hockey. I think the way this team is playing a 4-2 loss would of been better for the mental state of the team over the almost non existent chance of a 6-5 goal.
Last night the PK let us down, but it has done okay. 5-5 we are working with, for some reason an extra man is a debacle.
Learn from ones past.
I’d like to see the guys play up to the buzzer with a netminder in place and maybe at least close the goals against deficit. We have coughed up what 5-6 empty netters? How many PP goals? I dunno, i’m asking.
A
The Canes are like a box of expired chocolates......
Pretty sure the Canes have the worst 5v5 stats in the league in terms of goal differential. Not many bright spots for the stats really. If any.
by Iggy Reilly on Nov 12, 2009 3:51 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Look one coloumn to the right and notice how grand a PP we have sitting at 29th. My point is/was work on the 5-5 hockey and quit with the new, trick, non standard, anything but 5-5 hockey. They can’t do anything positive well, so work on the thing you should be best at.
It doesn’t really matter if you are burning on the 8th or 9th plane of hell. This losing streak feels like we are burning in hell. I’m of the opinion keep as simple and consistnt as possible. Pulling the goalie hasn’t worked even once, we have at least scored 5-5 goals.
BTW, that goals against is very telling in many ways. Empty netters, poor D and our net minders have not been stellar but better than air (albeit only by a little).
A
The Canes are like a box of expired chocolates......
I think that whenever we get a powerplay, Mo should instruct one of our players to immediately take a minor to make it 4 on 4. IIRC, our 4 on 4 stats are better than our 5 on 5 or PP stats by a decent margin. But even if I am wrong, the game would STILL be more exciting at 4 on 4 than with us on the powerplay dumping the puck in and having it sent immediately back to our own end. Besides, the numbers can’t be any WORSE at 4 on 4…
by East of Here on Nov 12, 2009 10:19 PM EST up reply actions
I’ve done a study of my own and determined that a team’s chance of scoring goals increases by 90-100% just by playing the Canes.
The sad fact is, our empty net has nearly as good a save percentage as our goaltenders.
by East of Here on Nov 12, 2009 10:16 PM EST up reply actions
I remember a game a couple years ago…the leafs were up 2-0 with about 2 min left. they pulled ward with maybe 1:45 left and scored. again they pulled ward and proceeded to tie it with under a min to play. in OT the canes won with maybe 15-30 sec left before a shootout. one of the best games I’ve ever been to. just thought id share.
by TylerA7707 on Nov 12, 2009 2:38 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Yes, i was there too. It was Toronto. Dec 18, 2007
It was also the game Tanabe mysteriously got hurt and never played again.
by drifterscape on Nov 12, 2009 6:19 PM EST up reply actions
Oh yeah, Toronto’s coach was some guy named Maurice.
by drifterscape on Nov 12, 2009 6:21 PM EST up reply actions
Tampa Bay tied a game with the goalie pulled last night in the last 10 seconds. Didn’t hang around to see who won in OT though.
So I'm guessing this would be "bottom"?
I was watching the end of that game (always hunt for close games around 9:15 or so on Center Ice).
It was actually a power play goal (Malone), so it was a 6-on-4 situation. Pretty dramatic as it occurred with 14+ seconds left on the clock (with bodies in front of the net, please note).
Tampa Bay won the resultant shootout with Lecavalier and Stamkos scoring the only two goals.
So…successful strategy.
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