Playoff Picture Murky for Six Clubs
by Bob Wage on Mar 16, 2009 4:17 PM EDT
6 comments
The Carolina Hurricanes are fighting for their playoff lives, but they are not alone. Realistically, at least six teams in the Eastern Conference are in the same boat as the Canes and their postseason hopes all ride on what transpires during these final four weeks of the regular season.
Let's call these six teams the "contenders". As of Monday, March 16th, a total of six points separate the contenders, from the 5th place Penguins and their 82 points, to the 10th place Sabres, who have 76.
- 5th Pittsburgh -82 points, 11 games remaining
- 6th Montreal - 80 points, 13 games remaining
- 7th Rangers - 80 points, 12 games remaining
- 8th Carolina - 79 points, 11 games remaining
- 9th Florida - 78 points, 13 games remaining
- 10th Buffalo, 76 points, 13 games remaining
Now let's examine each team's remaining schedule a little bit closer to see if we can determine who might have an edge.
For comparison sake, I have categorized teams into three basic groups, the contenders, (teams fighting for a spot), the pretenders, (teams out of it), and of course the top-enders, (teams who are in). While each game is of vital importance to the contenders because every single point is valuable, the highest emphasis must be put on the games against the other contenders. Those games are worth the equivalent of four points each because not only does the winner earn two points, but they keep their adversary from earning two as well. It should also be considered that those games are the toughest to play because there is equal desperation on both sides.
Is it harder to play against the top-enders, rather than the pretenders? The teams who have already pretty much locked up a playoff spot are not playing with as much on the line as the contenders are, but they are still good teams and are tough to beat. The pretenders have nothing to lose and play with zero pressure. Sometimes they are tough to beat as well, even though they should be beaten.
All in all, it's difficult to say who would have the toughest schedule based upon these groupings, but we will take a look at it anyway.
First let's look at the Hurricanes and see what they need to do, then we will review the other teams.
Carolina - 11 games remaining.
The Canes have a favorable schedule in that eight of those games are at home.
Four games are against teams who are already in the playoffs. (Devils 3, and Caps)
Four games are against other contenders, which are certainly the most important games of any the team will play. (Sabres, Pens, Rangers, and Panthers)
Three games are against pretenders, (Sens and Islanders 2)
Analysis: The games against the other contenders are vital. If they can win those games and split the others, (8 points plus 7 for a total of 94), that would be enough to get the job done. Can they sweep the other contenders?
Pittsburgh - 11 games remaining
The Pens have a favorable schedule in that 7 of of their last 11 games are going to be at home.
They have four more all important games against other contenders, (Canes, Habs, Panthers, and Rangers).
Four games are against pretenders, (Thrashers, Kings, Lightning, Islanders).
Only three games are against top-enders, (Flames, Flyers, Devils).
Analysis: The Penguins are probably in the best shape of the six teams in the battle.
Montreal - 13 games remaining
The Habs have eight games remaining at home and five away.
Four of those games are against contenders, (Pens, Rangers 2, Sabres).
Only two of their games are against top-enders, (Boston, Chicago)
They have seven games remaining with pretenders, (Leafs 2, Sens 2, Islanders, Thrashers, Lightning).
Analysis: At first glance, they would seem to have the easiest schedule based upon the strength of their opposition, but the Leafs and Sens will not be "gimme's". Is a contender better off to play against teams with nothing to lose, or teams who have already locked it up? This will be interesting to watch.
New York Rangers, 12 games remaining
The Rangers finish with six games at home and six away.
They have five tough games against other contenders, (Canes, Pens, Habs 2, Sabres)
Four games are against top-enders, (Flyers 2, Bruins, Devils)
Only three games are against pretenders, (Wild, Thrashers, Sens)
Analysis: These games seem to be tougher because they have the opposite schedule of the Habs, very few games against pretenders. Although once again, we will have to see how this ends up because at this point it's hard to determine which games are more difficult to play. Although logic would dictate that a team would rather play the Thrashers versus the Bruins.
Florida Panthers, 13 games remaining
The Panthers have eight homes games and five away.
They have five more games against other contenders, although two of them are in the West, (Stars, Blue Jackets, Canes, Sabres, Pens)
Four of the games are against pretenders, (Sens, Leafs, Thrashers 2)
Four games are against top-enders, (Caps 2, Flyers 2).
Analysis: Hard to tell here although four games against the Caps and Flyers will be no picnic. The Stars and Blue Jackets should be just as desperate as teams in the East, although the Stars are almost out of it.
Buffalo Sabres, 13 games remaining
The Sabres have seven away games and only six at home.
They play four games against contenders, (Canes, Habs, Panthers, Rangers)
Four of the games are against pretenders, (Sens, Thrashers, Leafs 2)
Five games are against top-enders, (Flyers, Caps, Devils, Wings, Bruins).
Analysis: It could be easily said that the Sabres have the toughest remaining schedule here. More of their games are on the road, plus they still have to play the Red Wings. The Leafs always play them tough and the Thrashers just beat them the other night.
Who do you think has the easiest schedule, and who has the toughest? Does it matter at this point of the season?
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Raising the questions-
Solid article B. Very good look at who has what remaining. Been wondering that very same thing myself lately. I’d like to share some of my thinking on this-
1) This Canes scenario feels uncomfortably familiar. Doesn’t It? With that thought, what’s up with the Canes schedule perennially? When this team’s down to the wire the schedule is not their friend. So I ask the question. With only 11 games left, is that an advantage or no? IMO-I don’t enjoy waiting to see what everyone else will do.
2) I agree with Kathy regarding the pretenders. The Isles and the Thrashers are playing pretty good lately.
3) In response to your article B, I think the Panthers then Rangers have the toughest road to go. Based on contender games mainly. The cats get Contenders from both conferences. Out of conference points are very nice to have. I think contender games are the most desperate and playoff like. On that sentiment, make the postseason or not the Contenders are already in the playoffs due to intensity.
Top enders will compete to win but not with the same intensity. Especially if they are locked in. They’ll play to stay healthy and set up a deep playoff run. Which won’t be easy if you have contender games remaining.
Pretenders are setting things up to see how next year will shape up. Pre and post draft. Best way to do that honestly is to play the spoiler. Again look at the Isles and Thrashers.
4) So who has it the easiest? My vote goes to the Habs and Pens.
Beyond all this. Come Wednesday the Canes will send their message as the remaining home games will be worth every penny you pay to see them.
Good point on how the Canes schedule is always messed up like this at the end of every season. The Canes could potentially loose a lot of ground between here and Wed. The only good thing is that they play only one back to back series, and it is a home and home one for us. They also have a day or two off between most of their games, so at least they will be more rested than the other team.
Lets see what happens.
Good article Bubba. The way I see it is that they have to win AT LEAST six of the eight home games. If they can do that, winning on the road will not be as important, although a win at Florida will be essential. My perfect scenario would be to win 7 out of the 8 at home and one on the road. That is a very tough road to hoe, but if they can do it, they will definitely be in, possibly as the #5 seed if they get lucky.
Win the home games.
It’s as simple as that. 8 games=16 pts=95 total pts=playoffs.
Still not a crook!
Start playoff beards early
Here’s another twist. We have one back to back left. This weekend the Islanders then Washington. Three times we get teams that played the night before. The Devils play tonite at home before coming here on Weds. They play in Chicago the night before we play them in Newark on the 28th. In April Buffalo plays in Toronto and clears customs the night before our game here.
As another sure sign I’ve over analysed the schedule I note we have a 4 day layoff after the one day road trip to NJ. A long rest before a home game always looks like a potential stinker to me.
Finally the season ends in NJ with the Devils, it would be nice to have a playoff spot locked up before then. I hope the Canes, except for Brindy, have put the razors away. Nothing put playoff games left.
As much as I hate them and him, another point to consider for the Sabres is Ryan Miller coming back. You can see how much he means to that team since he has been injured and he has the ability to win a game. Of course with all that being said, the Sabres have the most work to do since they are at the bottom of the list which means climbing over other teams which is difficult to do when you are not in the playoffs.
Either way it’s going to be a race to the finish and let’s hope the Canes have enough to get the job done. The top line has been a menace since getting Cole back and Ward has been playing his best hockey, just hope he’s not too tired.
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