Canes Country Exit Analysis: Niclas Wallin
by Cory Lavalette on Jun 4, 2009 2:02 PM EDT
45 comments
Veteran defenseman Niclas Wallin in the longest-tenured Hurricane. Drafted in the fourth round of the 2000 Entry Draft, the 34-year-old just finished his eighth season in Carolina. He has been part of one Stanley Cup champion team, another Eastern Conference championship squad and was on board for this year's trip to the NHL's final four.
But while Wallin put up his typical annual numbers (10 points, 64 games, 42 PIMs), many believe his effectiveness has diminished the past few seasons.
The Good: As stated above, Wallin consistently puts up the same statistics. Since his second full year in the NHL (2002-03), the Swedish blueliner has scored either 10 (four times) or eight (twice) points. He's always played between 16 and 18 minutes a night, had 40-70 penalty minutes, and — outside of the 77 games he played in 2002-03 — played between 50 and 67 games each season. He can still be a serviceable penalty killer and physical presence, has lots of experience, is good in the room and has been a clutch player. With Wallin, everyone knows what they're getting.
The Bad: Part of what you're getting is a player who has been a minus player most seasons. Twice he has been on the right side of the plus/minus ledger, but just barely (plus-1 in 2001-02, plus-2 in 2005-06), and he has neared minus-20 two times. He seems to have slowed a step in recent years and sometimes struggles with faster players in the post-lockout NHL. Despite his defense-first game, he blocks few shots (81, sixth on the team) and he takes too many minor penalties (more than 20 every year since the lockout) for a guy playing third-pairing minutes.
The Stats: Wallin's favorite math equation? 2+8=10. This season was the third time the rearguard has finished with those offensive numbers.
- 2 goals — the third straight year Wallin has scored two goals and the fifth time in his career.
- 8 assists — matches his career high, done two other times (2002-03, 2006-07).
- 10 points — also a tie for his career best, the fourth time he's hit double digits.
- Minus-1 — when his plus/minus is near even, the Canes do well. He was plus-1 in 2001-02 (lost in Cup finals) and plus-2 in 2005-06 (won Stanley Cup). He was minus-2 in 2006-07, but Carolina missed the playoffs.
- 0 major penalties — despite his physical style, Wallin has not taken a major penalty since the lockout. Oleg Tverdovsky, David Tanabe and Casey Borer have combined for four.
The Money: Wallin earned $1.725 million this season, the third year of a four-year contract that paid him that much annually. It includes a no-trade clause. GM Jim Rutherford has tried to trade Wallin in the past but was denied by the defenseman. With just one year remaining on his deal, Wallin may be more attractive to other teams — and more open to going elsewhere — if Rutherford explores moving him. Also, do not rule out a buyout if the Carolina front office thinks one of their young blueliners is ready for duty.
Want more? Check out our other Exit Analysis article: Rod Brind'Amour • Ryan Bayda
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"...do not rule out a buyout if the Carolina front office thinks one of their young blueliners is ready for duty."
And their comments about Rodney and others would seem to indicate they do. But I’d guess Kaberle would obviously be a buyout consideration before Wallin. Costs more, offers less.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
Buyout possible
Think that JR could buyout Wallin, but as stated above Kaberle is more likely to receive buyout. Seems like I remember that Wallin didn’t want to move from east coast, yet his family is still in Sweden. Can’t see why Wallin would agree to a trade. I say buyout Kaberle and bring Wallin back for depth. Could JR make a run at a free agent D-man? There are a ton of second tier players available, how bout Bouchemen from Anaheim, it will be hard for them to resign him with all they have invested in the back end. I wonder if JR has had his eye on someone that he makes a run at, if he could unload all of Kaberle’s salary it wouldn’t surprise me if he makes a move. I love our young players, but who is ready to play 70 games and be the defensive presence we need?
I don’t think the team is going to sign any free agents, honestly. Also, they could buy both guys out … esp. if they keep Babchuk.
by Cory Lavalette on Jun 4, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Sort of...
But really more like retaining than signing. Semantics.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jun 4, 2009 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions
They seemed to think Carson or Rodney could be.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jun 4, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions
An average defenseman...
…who seems to stay mired in mediocrity, even when he is pushed to strive for more. I don’t think he’ll accept a trade – he would make a good “spare part” for when the young D of next season needs a rest or gets injured. An expensive spare part, but he only has 1 year left & all that experience. A Kaberle buyout would be better.
This team still needs (going back to my rants from last offseason) a big physical defenseman to protect the young ’uns, to clear the front of the net for Cam, to offset the offensive D of Pitkanen & Corvo, to take some of the burden of fighting from Gleason, and to provide some entertainment with some big hits & physical play.
I think it’s laughable that the team wants to get “better defensively” but they also want to make room for their “younger defensive players….”
That seems like taking a step back seeing as how it is a known fact that it takes d-men longer to develop…..
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Jun 4, 2009 3:01 PM EDT reply actions
Umm...
Age and talent do not have a direct correlation.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jun 4, 2009 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m just saying that I take steady experience over inexperienced most of the time
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Jun 5, 2009 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions
I think the stats tell us how he is going to play every year and his stats are consistant in that regard so I think we received this year what we should expect out of him. Just because we want a better player or want him to be better doesn’t mean he automatically should get a bad grade because he doesn’t do what we want. I also think he brings a lot of experience off the ice that you won’t find in a younger upcoming d-man and that knowledge is just as valuable as his on ice performance. And do you remember at the beginning of the year someone started a campaign to write him in as an All-Star canidate?
I gave him a C+
C for doing just about what we expect of him. The plus is for blessing Tim Gleason’ stick before Game 2 against the Devils.
If grading on expectations...
…as was stated in an earlier exit analysis, he should get an A. We got exactly what we expected from him. He will never be the best D-man on the team, but he will be sturdy, rugged, and a great prescence both on the ice and in the locker room. I gave him a B.
Satan is just a coping mechanism for monotheists.
Where would you be teaching, Chapel Hill?
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jun 4, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
For me, it’s a combo of expectations realized and salary. You may live up to expectations and be an A b/c you’re an elite player playing elite hockey (Malkin this year?). Otherwise, IMO you need to exceed expectations to earn an A. Wallin did about what’s expected of him, so a B. The fact that he made a good amount of money almost led me to a C.
by Cory Lavalette on Jun 4, 2009 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions
That was my point.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jun 4, 2009 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Wallin has been steady over the years. He’s had his rough spots, but you know what to expect from him. He’s not going to give you any offense, nor will he be a punishing hitter. He’s a decent stay-at-home defenseman. He’s also the most senior defenseman on the team (I’m not counting Kaberle since he was relegated to the press box all season). That experience is what he’s really got going for him. If one or two of the Canes kids are ready to take a spot on the roster, it’ll be good to at least keep Wallin around as a 7th defenseman so he can share his experience. In his exit interview, he struck me as a guy who really knows his hockey, even if he’s not the most skilled player. That alone is worth something. But if he doesn’t like his role as a 7th defenseman, he might be more willing to accept a trade. I give him a B.
Question on the +/-?
Since the Canes under the guidance Maurice have only justed switcehd their system to be more defensively focused, how does Wallin’s +/- compare to other defensive d-men ( Gleason, Seidenburg)? Would Pits/Corvo/Babs have an advantage in that stat since they are out on the PP and racking up some points on their own? Am I right that Wallin has played most of his career under Laviolette who isn’t exactly the defensive stalwart found elsewhere in the league.
Under the Lavi system, wouldn’t Wallin’s performance look worse because of the lack of defensive support from the forward lines?
I think Wallin’s presence in the locker room (and he was so different from Corvo – as in more positive and confident and articulate- when they were together at the exit interviews last week) will be of value as they bring up the younger D-boys who might well need a veteran on the ice who has a lot of experience, even if he lacks the energy and skill that seems to be the main complaints I’m seeing above?
And his family is here in Raleigh (not Sweden) from how much I see of his 9-yr old son playing hockey with RYHA almost year-round.
I gave him a B+ (based on expectations and value). The plus for the same reason as LTD. Bless his heart! (or whatever body part it was that helped get that OT goal for Gleason)
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
Answers:
Wallin has been consistent, numbers-wise, regardless of coaching. 3.5 years under Mo, 4.5 under Lavi.
Also, goals scored on PP or allowed while SH do not effect +/-.
I’ve lost my attempt to do the post-Mo +/- numbers like five times, so I’m giving up, but if you look up the season splits (you can find them on Yahoo) from January on (or the ASG if you don’t want to do the adding), you’ll probably get a good idea of what everybody looked like in the new system.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jun 4, 2009 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Excellent suggestion
Okay – I didn’t realize Yahoo kept such stats. As you suggested, I used the All-Star game break as the old-system vs new-system breakpoint and came up with the following for our core 6 d-men. I believe there were 49 games before the ASG and 33 games after. I didn’t worry about noting how many games each player had individually before and after, though that would be relevant for figuring out scoring points. Seems like that cliche about good defense making good offense shows up pretty clearly. I don’t know if the improvement in +/- would look as dramatic for the whole team.
+/- points (G + A)
Player Pre-ASG Post- ASG Pre- ASG Post-ASG
Wallin -3 +2 9 1
Gleason -1 +4 8 4
Seidenburg -11 +2 17 13
Pitkanen -3 +14 21 12
Babchuk -6 +19 11 24
Corvo -2 +1 21 17
I can’t get the statistical columns to format correctly, so this is tough to read.
Here’s the link for Wallin’s stats – under the split stats tab, you find the allstar-break #’s at the very bottom of the table.
Corvo is the only one whose numbers didn’t improve across the board post-ASG.
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
Thanks hockey mom
for the info on Wallin’s family. I second guessed myself after writing my comments.
Think this is a good discussion on Wallin and how he fits in with the team.
Still think they need to bring in a top 4 guy to pair with Joni, do it via trade or FA.
Sign and trade of Babchuk could be possible.
This is off subject but the Islanders are still paying Yashin over two million per year for the next 4-5 years!
Makes me appreciate JR all the more
They all wanted that Cup
But Corvo wasn’t able to get past that personal disappointment when speaking with the press in the exit interviews, or even turn the focus forward, on what he planned to do to get a better result next year. Perhaps he’s the kinda guy (and I think he is) that blames himself when things don’t go well for the entire team. That’s not a bad thing in itself, but then he stews in those juices for too long. He just seemed lost and overwhelmed.
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by hockeymomof2 on Jun 5, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
I was more bothered by him having that sulk during an intermission.
by Cory Lavalette on Jun 5, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
I searched, but I couldn’t find it so do you know if it’s out there?
by hotchipsnsalsa on Jun 5, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t know … I can look. It was the second intermission of Game 3 or 4 … I think 3.
by Cory Lavalette on Jun 5, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
It was game 3. We were down 3-1 after 2 periods, so it didn’t really make sense why Corvo seemed so hopeless at that point (no scoring by either team in the 2nd period). Pens had scored 2 quick goals in the last couple mins of the 1st period to take the Caniacs out of it. Samsonov got a goal early in the 3rd, before it all fell apart.
We ended up losing 7-2, I think. (I remember the Pens empty net goal from the neutral zone faceoff ,where it looked like the puck may have gone into the net, right off a Canes stick with no help from the Pens.) It was a bad night all around – hard to imagine anything worse ever at the RBC.
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
It was pretty bad...
Looked down, voice was flat (dead.) He just spewed cliches about “sticking around and hoping something happens” while his expression implied he had checked out.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jun 5, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
“and he was so different from Corvo – as in more positive and confident and articulate- when they were together at the exit interviews last week”
I thought the same exact thing. Corvo looked like he really wanted to be somewhere else.
Gravitas
I think we all saw Corvo’s crash and burn interview at the 2nd intermission of Game 3 of the Pens series (Is that blonde on VS named Chris Simmons – who is she?). Corvo seems to be emotionally pretty volatile, which can serve a purpose on the ice for energy and excitement, but hardly gains him the peer respect a more steady personality would offer. At this point, Wallin may be the only D-man left with seniority to take on that role. (or Glen Wesley would be even better – but I don’t know how much time he gets with the current players). I think Wallin stays.
(Not even going into how much loyalty is valued by the Canes/JR – Wallin’s been here a VERY LONG time – like back to Francis’ days and the first SC series under Mo vs Detroit. How many of you have been Canes’ fans that long? Not me (I was living in another state in 2002)
This photo of Corvo (who’ll be 32 in a couple weeks) featured by Puck Daddy during the playoffs isn’t helpful to my perception of Corvo as steadfast defensive corps leader:
I like Corvo – but his role is limited.
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
I was...
Sat front row for game 3. That was pretty damned cool at 14, Stevie Eyes’ face against the glass right in front of me in a Cup final.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jun 4, 2009 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions
FWIW, I think Gleason is the heart and soul of the D going forward. Since he was drafted he’s been pegged as a potential captain, and I think the accountability he shows and his non-stop effort never waver. He’s still young and learning the position, but as far as leadership is concerned I think he’ll be the horse back there.
by Cory Lavalette on Jun 5, 2009 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Gleason will get an A on his jersey
I completely agree about Gleason, Cory. His willingness to speak so openly with the press during the Pens series was exactly what we need in terms of Defensive leadership and responsibility. I see him upping his level next season now that he’s had this playoff run. And I don’t see Wallin getting renewed when his contract his up next year (or only short-term, reduced pay). This is a one-year conversation as the new guys are brought up from Albany. As you’ve pointed out, we’re not in the market for a big UFA from another franchise to take the helm at the Canes blueline.
I think this conversation about Wallin has expanded to include the whole D-corps because while no one sees Wallin as a Defensive Titan (hardly!) the way the younger guys have been awesome at their best moments, (Pitkanen, Gleason, even Seids), there have been problems with the consistency and mental mistakes (yielding game-changing turn-overs). They seem to panic or collapse when the chips are down, and that’s when you need Mr Steady.
I think Corvo is relevant in that he is the next “senior” in age to Wallin and so, looking at the big picture of team-building, we have to consider what everyone brings to the table. Corvo brings skill, speed, vision, commitment and energy, absolutely. Is he the guy to be the keel to keep the boat upright when the winds are howling – not from what I’ve seen.
Whenever Brindy gives up the C, and assuming Staal trades in his A for that C, I could easily see Gleason becoming the next Alternate.
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by hockeymomof2 on Jun 5, 2009 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions
So what if he had done more?
Did you get As for consistent mediocrity? I’d sure like to go wherever that can happen.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jun 5, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
you’re there … at Canes Country! I always provide consistent mediocrity. Luckily the others make it worth everyone’s while
by Cory Lavalette on Jun 5, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Boy – this is kind of fun. Who do we get to evaluate next? This definitely brings out a lot of good issues about the team, beyond how each indiviidual player gets graded.
For the D-men, I think Pitkanen and Gleason have got to be close to A, though Pits (at $4 mil) making nearly half again what any other D-man got paid (Gleason 2nd at $2.75 mil) and 230% of what Wallin earned ($1.725mil) makes that A grade a very lofty goal for the dollars spent on Joni. But perhaps I’m getting ahead of the flow here…..
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
salaries
Pitkanen made 3.5 mill this year and 4.0 mill next year, though the cap hit is 4 million. According to nhlnumbers.com Joni was tied for the 34th highest salary among D-men this year…next year he goes all the way up to 31st among D-men. A little perspective is sometimes useful.
Do you guys think there are 30-35 D-men in the league better than Joni?
Yours Truly Joni Pitkanen Apologist
Consistent
Wallin gives you the same thing year after year
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