Canes Country Clash - Southeast Division, 2009-10
by Bob Wage on Sep 28, 2009 7:01 AM EDT
79 comments
Last year, Cory and I made predictions as to how we felt each division would end up. Our selections for the Southeast were very similar except that I predicted that the Canes would return as division champs, Cory stuck with favored Washington. We all know how that turned out..
It's time to honor the tradition again this year, starting out with the Southeast.
Should I go against the grain again this year and diss the defending division champs? We will see. First, here is Cory's take:
1. Washington
2. Carolina
3. Florida
4. Tampa Bay
5. Atlanta
The Washington Capitals are at a pivotal moment in their history. Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, Mike Green and Niklas Backstrom are centerpieces any franchise would gladly take. Youngsters Simeon Varlamov and Karl Alzner are also poised to burst on the scene. But with Semin due for restricted free agency following this season and chinks already showing in the Caps' forward lines, this might be their best chance to make a run at the Cup. Problem is, there are huge question marks down the middle — the place most teams look to build from. After Backstrom, the center position is average at best. Brendan Morrison will be asked to center the second line, a role that he hasn't been capable of for a few seasons. David Steckel or Boyd Gordon don't have the skill to dethrone him.
That being said, the addition of veteran Mike Knuble is a great one. He'll provide a presence in front of the net and has been very durable throughout his career. Varlamov will battle Jose Theodore for the top job in goal. Varlamov proved up to the task in the postseason last year, but taking on the rigors of a full NHL season is tough on any young netminder. Green leads the defense, with Tom Poti providing veteran experience and Alzner poised to become a rugged, defense-first blueliner.
Still, Ovechkin & Co. will have enough firepower to keep them atop the Southeast.
The Hurricanes went deeper than the Caps in last year's playoffs, and they've stabilized the bottom half of their lineup with hard-to-play-against additions Aaron Ward, Andrew Albert, Stephane Yelle and Tom Kostopoulos. The big question mark is on the blueline, where Anton Babchuk and Dennis Seidenberg — who both added some offense from the back end — are gone. Not only will there likely be a drop in point production from the blueline, but the power play is up in the air without enough viable d-men who can run the point. Matt Cullen will slide back with the man advantage to fill one hole on the top unit, but the second spot on the second PP team is up in the air. Don't be surprised if prospect Bryan Rodney gets a look there if the team struggles to find a solution.
The Canes are banking on their revamped defense to limit chances against emerging star goalie Cam Ward. If the new additions can help Ward, then the Hurricanes can rely on their forwards for enough scoring to help them win games. Eric Staal, Ray Whitney and Tuomo Ruutu should lead the way, with the team hoping Erik Cole and Rod Brind'Amour can regain their scoring touch, and Jussis Jokinen, Cullen, Chad LaRose and Sergei Samsonov adding several layers of secondary scoring.
The Florida Panthers lost their identity when they dealt defenseman Jay Bouwmeester before he was set to enter the unrestricted free agency market. That might not be a bad thing, seeing that identity hasn't led to any playoff appearances. Mostly, the Panthers need Nathan Horton to become a dominant power forward. David Booth and Stephen Weiss have found ways to be productive, but Horton has been a disappointment year after year, whether because of injuries or inconsistent play.
The defense is solid, especially with the addition of Seidenberg right before the start of the preseason. Keith Ballard is a cornerstone blueliner that makes life hell for opposing forwards, while Bryan McCabe is a threat offensively whenever he's on the attack. Tomas Vokoun and Scott Clemmensen are a solid tandem in net, but the team will need to see more out of Horton and their other forwards if they are to sneak into the playoffs.
If the Lightning can show some patience with their roster, they could be better than expected this season. They have the ability to push the Panthers for third and perhaps even make a run at a return to the playoffs. It all starts on defense. Last year's group was constantly in a state of flux, but the addition of Mattias Ohlund and drafting of Victor Hedman make the Bolts' D immediately better. If Mike Smith can stay healthy in net, keeping goals out of the net shouldn't be a big problem.
There's talent on offense, too, led by Vincent Lecavalier and Steven Stamkos. The addition of winger Alex Tanguay adds more scoring punch on the outside to go with power forward Ryan Malone and slippery Martin St. Louis. The third and fourth lines will be nothing to call home about, but there's enough talent in the top six to keep Tampa Bay in games.
In Atlanta, things could get ugly — then worse if Ilya Kovalchuk decides to leave town following this year. Throughout the lineup, there are bright spots surrounded by not-so-bright ones. Bryan Little and Kovalchuk are top-flight forwards, while newcomer Nik Antropov brings size and the ability to take over a game, even if it came way too expensively (an average of more than $4 million a year for the next four seasons). But the rest of the group are either too old or too average to inspire excitement.
The defense has the potential to be good if prospects Zach Bogosian and Boris Valabik can play beyond their years, while acquisition Pavel Kubina is a solid addition.
There's plenty of talent in net, but none of it proven. Kari Lehtonen needs to prove he was worth being the second overall pick in 2002, while Ondrej Pavelec is lurking in the minors looking to become the new No. 1. Backup Johan Hedberg is always reliable, but not capable of being an everyday starter. All these holes mean one thing: another high draft pick for the Thrashers.
_____
Bob's take:
1. Carolina
2. Washington
3. Atlanta
4. Tampa Bay
5. Florida
If Cory and I agreed on everything, this would be a pretty boring column, wouldn't it?
It's time to put on my homer cap once again and stick with my gut feeling, that the Caps are going to take a step back this year. As I mentioned in this highly controversial article I posted a couple of weeks back, I do not feel that each of the Washington superstars will be able to duplicate or surpass last year's lofty scoring results. The team will not be able to win as many games because quite frankly, they do not have the quality defense or goaltending needed to win games without that consistent high scoring.
While Knuble is a great pickup, how much better can the powerplay be than the 25% achieved last season which was good for second place in the league? Morrison is no Sergei Fedorov and Alzner has some maturing to do before he can single-handedly save the defense. While Mike Green is a scoring dynamo, is he going to be counted on for shut-down defense? Viktor Kozlov was under-rated and the team will miss him more than they think.
Can they still win the division? Of course they can, but it will not be the cakewalk that it was last season. Each of the other teams in the division have improved. How much better are the Caps now than they were last year?
The Hurricanes beat the Capitals head to head last season and they have addressed some of their weaknesses by getting bigger and more physical. Several players had injury issues they were dealing with and scored well below their lifetime scoring averages. Rod Brind`Amour, Erik Cole, Jussi Jokinen, and Scott Walker should all have rebound years. Cam Ward is the most consistent goalie in the division. The defense is bigger, nastier, and should be stingier than they were last year.
This season the club has more quality depth to fill in when needed than it has ever had before. I give the nod to the Canes.
I chose Atlanta to come in third because I think they can continue what was working for them at the end of last year when they finished on a winning tear. This team is kind of like the opposite of Florida, which has a ton of defense, but no offense. If they can sign Manny Legace to play backup goalie and Kari Lehtonen can give them any kind of consistency, this team could be dangerous. Pavel Kubina is going to knock in points from the blueline and Bryan Little should continue to improve as forward. Young defenseman Zach Bogosian is a horse and Ron "Hollywood" Hainsey is coming into his own.
Did I forget to mention that Ilya Kovalchuk is in a contract year? Be careful because this team could surprise people.
Tampa Bay has a ton of talent on the squad this year, but something important is missing: Leadership. They don't have it on the ice, behind the bench, or upstairs in the main office. While Vincent Lecavalier is an unquestionable talent, is he the best leader in the division, or even on the team? Is Rick Tocchet Jack Adams material? I don't see it. Then you have the owners squabbling over control at the top and this franchise looks like it might implode. It's hard to be successful on the ice when there is internal strife and this franchise is ripe with it.
They still have enough talent to keep out of last place though.
Florida has a very solid goalie, a ton of quality defensemen, but just one line of offense. Shut them down, and what have you got? A lot of 2-1, and 3-2 losses. Stillman, Booth, Horton, and Weiss are good, but not good enough to carry the offensive load needed to win consistently in this league, or this division. And speaking of ownership trouble, things are not exactly all rosy in Sunrise right now.
What do you think? Leave your comments and rate your teams in the poll below.
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Southeast
I haven’t followed the other teams games during preseason, so my choice was strictly a homer pick. I think the Canes should have tore up Atlanta Friday, that game shouldn’t have been close at all.
First off, I enjoy your analysis of the Southeast, and analyses in general, even if I don’t always agree with them. :) First time commenting, though.
Second, I picked Washington. A bit of a homer pick, but based on a few things that I saw in Washington’s pre-season that render bits of this analysis incorrect.
Defense and PK:
- It doesn’t look as though Karl Alzner will be in the opening night lineup. There are seven incumbent returning D-men: Mike Green, Jeff Schultz, Brian Pothier, Tom Poti, Milan Jurcina, John Erskine, and Shaone Morrisonn. Green continues to be more solid with every game he plays, and Jeff Schultz and Brian Pothier show noticeable improvement based on summer training and being fully healthy. You’ll probably see Pothier on the second-line power play, and he led the Dmen in points in the pre-season. Add to that that Alzner has been outplayed by Tyler Sloan, whose cap hit is half of Alzner’s, and either the team will carry seven D and send them both down, or they will carry eight and send Alzner down.
- Washington relies on team defense, because of the run-and-gun style that they play. Fleischmann and Fehr are likely to start the season on IR, and Brashear’s spot in the lineup is still open. All but one of the Hershey guys who have stood out in the pre-season are defensively responsible, and the one most likely to make the team outright is Quintin Laing, who is a hell of a checker and a PK’er. Washington’s PK is pretty deep right now and Laing should give it a good-sized boost.
Offense and PP:
- I don’t think you’ll actually see a drop-off in the PP. Fedorov is replaced by Mike Knuble, who provides a reliable and hard-to-move net presence that was not a part of the PP last year. He’s very, very good at picking up the change around the net and potting it past the goalie, and has several pre-season points to show for that. What’s more, he’s getting guys like Brooks Laich to go to the net more consistently, so Cam Ward is likely to see more Capital rear end than he did last year. Remember that that 25% was after a slow start to the PP in October that averaged about 15%. Yeah.
- Morrison and Semin are showing a lot of chemistry, and it looks as if Brooks Laich is going to end up on that left side for now (no guarantees, but that seems likely). BMo has had a solid preseason skating with either Semin or Knuble, and he’s got everything to play for this year. I wouldn’t count him out so easily.
- Eric Fehr, when he returns, will be one to watch. He posts 5-on-5 +/—ON/60 comparable to Alex Ovechkin with limited ice time and lesser quality of teammate. Once he stops having horrid luck with injuries, he’s got the potential to be a dangerous force out there.
- The offense chased Henrik Lundqvist out of the crease yesterday before slacking off. ’Nuff said.
Goaltending:
- Looks like Varly won that battle – Neuvirth’s probably going to go to Hershey, but we all knew that anyway. It’s okay, he’s just turned 21. There’s no rush and still a boatload of promise there. No question Varly’s got some developing to do, but the offense is potent enough that they don’t need goaltending to steal games most nights. Varly could have brought a book and a lawn chair to the net with him for the first two frames against Chicago and it wouldn’t have mattered.
- Theodore won 32 games last year, don’t forget.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
I said Alzner was poised to burst on the scene. Just b/c he’s not on the roster to start the year doesn’t mean he won’t be a key cog in the Caps’ success. They could call him up three games in, if needed. Bobby Ryan wasn’t recalled by Anaheim — b/c of cap issues — until mid-November last year. Steve Mason didn’t get called up until early November. That’s two-thirds of the Calder finalists from last year.
by Cory Lavalette on Sep 28, 2009 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Alzner’s not the bursting type. He’s quiet, effective, the very opposite of Mike Green. He’s more likely to quietly work his way through the line-up. Karl just turned 21, and while he’s a supremely talented guy, he still needs a little more seasoning before he’s an elite NHL D-man.
IMO, an effective defensive player is as fun to watch as a dynamic offensive one. I get as much joy watching Tim Gleason as I do Joni Pitkanen. I wouldn’t call Varlamov an elite goalie yet, but he definitely burst on the scene last year.*
by Cory Lavalette on Sep 28, 2009 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions
After watching him, I don’t think he’ll “burst on the scene” at all this year. He’s plain not ready.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
This is funny, if I recall correctly, there were quite a few Caps fans posting about how Alzner will be one of the players to mend some of their defensive issues this year after Bob’s article about the Caps ‘ripe for a fall’. Nows hes not ready, how quickly the tides turn. Whether the Caps win the division or not doesnt matter, they will not win the cup being a one-sided offensive team, balance is the key and they dont have it.
Alzner in his first stint was excellent. In his second he was okay. He’s still trying to figure out his game.
by red army line on Sep 29, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Theodore won 32 games last year, don’t forget.
I think it is more accurate to say Theodore “got the win” 32 times last year than to say he won 32 games last year.
These results are similar to a pitcher giving up 4 runs a game, but getting 6 in support to win 15 games in the bigs.
Varly looks to be the gamer of the two in net for the Caps, but he will discover how hard it is to play consistently every night as a young player. Luckily for him, he has the high powered offensive machine to carry him through this maturation period.
The 08-09 Caps had a tale of two seasons:
2008: Effort and 5-on-5 offense very good, goaltending shaky
2009: Effort weak, relied on PP, goaltending very good.
And there it is.
by red army line on Sep 28, 2009 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Bob, you can add in to your factoring that Semin isn’t the only RFA at the end of this season – Nicky Backstrom is too. The capologists are laying in supplies of Red Bull and adding-machine tape even as we speak blog.
IS PAЯTY NOW
Er, reading fail. Cory was the one talking about the RFAs. Comment first, think second, read third.
IS PAЯTY NOW
Yeah .. i wasn’t clear at all. I think they’ll re-sign Backstrom without thinking twice. He’s a much bigger priority than Semin, IMO.
by Cory Lavalette on Sep 28, 2009 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, he is. By the way, you wrote “Niklas Backstrom” (G, MIN) instead of “Nicklas Backstrom” (C, WAS).
by red army line on Sep 28, 2009 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Very true, but that doesn’t necessarily spell doom, either. Semin, Backstrom, and Varlamov all come up as RFA’s next offseason, but consider:
- Jose Theodore is likely gone. He was never intended as more than a bridge to the kiddie corps, and next year’s crease will (barring weird stuff happening) likely be Varlamov / Neuvirth.
- Nylander’s NMC expires. So long, and thanks for all the Swedish fish.
- There aren’t that many other guys to sign. Bourque and Laing come up, and I think Aucoin does, but they’re all small fry salary-wise. The only other major one that will need to be re-signed is David Steckel, who’s a top face-off guy and PK’er.
- Semin and Ovechkin are “like brothers” and Semin may take a hometown discount to stay in Washington. He’s much more comfortable around his countrymen.
"It is better to die on your feet than to live on your knees." - Delores Ibarruri
It's actually not a bad situation...
Currently, Semin has a Cap hit of $4.6M, and while that will go up, it won’t go up that much, probably to about $5.5M
Nick Backstrom has a Cap hit of $2.4M presently, and that will go up to about the same as Semin, so the Caps are looking at needing about $4M more in room. To make up for that:
Theodore’s hit of $4.5M goes away
Nylander’s $4.875M can be bought out for a $1M cap hit in 2010-11 and 2011-12 (or he can be moved in the last year of the deal)
Brian Pothier’s $2.5M hit goes away (He may resign, but considering his recent injuries, no one is going give him more than $2.5M.)
Plus Ben Clymer’s Buyout goes off the books after this year (not that it was a lot, $367K)
There is space for both Semin and Backstrom to stick with the Caps…
(All numbers from http://www.nhlnumbers.com )
Let's go Caps!
IIRC, there are 12 guys that are UFA or RFA following this year. Some may go, but you still need guys to fill out the roster. They’re going to have to part with one of Backstrom and Semin, I think. Otherwise they risk being in a TB situation like Richards-St. Louis-Lecavalier. Also, the cap may go down next year.
by Cory Lavalette on Sep 28, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
The Caps don’t have to part with them both. The increase in the Cap hit for Semin and Backstrom would be made up by replacing Theodore’s salary with Neuvirth, and dropping Nylander.
I fully expect to lose a defenseman after this season (Pothier and Shaone Morrisonn are UFAs) as well. They’d be replaced with either Alzner or Carlson, both of whom make less than Pothier.
The only reason the Caps are close to the cap is Nylander. If they can get him off the books (which they can next year), that will free up a whole bunch of room.
Let's go Caps!
I think you’re missing the point that there are a lot of RFAs. You either have to pay them (more), or replace them. All those bottom-six players do add up on the payroll.
by Cory Lavalette on Sep 29, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I wrote on this a while ago. It’s feasible, but they’ll be very close to the cap.
by red army line on Sep 29, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree there are some RFA’s but the Caps know that approx. $10M of cap space will appear at the end of the season in one way or another.
Theodore got a 2 year deal knowing he was a care-taker that had to bridge the gap from Olie Kolzig to one of the young goaltenders. Varly and Neuvy are both NHL ready or nearly so. Combined they make less than Theo.
Michael Nylander is a 4.8M boat anchor cap hit that can be moved after 2009-10, as the no-movement clause in his contract lapses. No one will take him, but he can be put on waivers, bought out, or sent to Hershey.
Brian Pothier’s current cap hit is 2.5M, but coming off a major injury, it is unlikely that he will get that salary again. I suspect the Caps might try to bring him back for 2010 and beyond at a lower figure.
Brendan Morrison is a UFA after this year too. Ditto for his almost-namesake Shaone Morrisonn. ShaMo is almost certain to leave as he and George McPhee have had some really hairy salary negotiations.
All of those players free up about $11M of cap space, or 10M if Nylander is bought out. Considering the current Cap hit for Semin and Backstrom is about $7M, I have no doubt they can keep them both, keep the current RFAs at reasonable amounts (or in some cases, let them go…if Jurcina doesn’t step up and earn his 1.3M, he’s going to be gone right quick).
It will be tight, but it can be done…
Let's go Caps!
Yeah, and the depth on defense allows some guys to leave. The bonus cushion should, if at all, add a minimal hit next year.
by red army line on Sep 29, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
The Hurricanes went deeper than the Caps in last year’s playoffs
Yes, but on the other hand, the canes only got one more win, so not that impressive. Coupled with the fact the caps were able to take the same team to 7 games while the canes were swept, I think their playoffs were reasonably even.
"And next year it will be ours."
The statement was they went deeper. They did. And they did it by beating the Nos. 3 and 1 seeds on the road in Game 7s. The Caps folded up shop at home in a Game 7. Let’s not split hairs about my wording. The Canes went deeper …. they did. Just like anyone could say the Caps won the division last year.
by Cory Lavalette on Sep 28, 2009 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions
The canes were lucky to get out of the first round and as were the caps.
I’m not splitting hairs on wording, I’m contributing to a discussion :)
"And next year it will be ours."
The Canes have not accomplished anything without it being lucky. The Cup run in ‘06 was pure luck, not an ounce of skill. Last year, lucky again, didnt do a thing to deserve being in the ECF’s, all luck. They shouldnt have even made the playoffs last year, they got very lucky towards the second half to last quarter of the season. Did you even watch any of the first or second round games the Canes played last year or did you just catch the highlights of the last minute and a half of game 7 against NJ?
I did actually, But you can’t deny the amount of luck it took for that last minute and a half to play out the way it did.
"And next year it will be ours."
They had the puck in the NJ zone for about 2 minutes straight prior to scoring the tying goal. I dont call that luck after applying pressure for that extended peiod of time, it gets labled with a lucky tag because of how late in the game it was scored. The Staal goal was taking advantage of a team that was still trying to figure out how the Canes tied the game. Shame on them.
Speaking of luck
What I saw in the Cap/Rag game was luck that the Caps didn’t fold after 6 games.
Also for luck, the Ovechkin/Crosby match up was worth way too much $$$$$ for the NHL not to have go 7 games, even thought the Caps mailed it in the 7th game.
If money's the root of all evil then why do so many
churches brow beat their members for more?
Watch Hockey Much?
Luck = skill…….there’s alot of luck in hockey. But you can keep bashing the Canes which most fans usually do, it means we’re doing something right. Don’t be mad cause the Caps play in the playoffs like the Sharks.
Luck can often save a man if his courage holds
And people who work hard make their own luck.
If money's the root of all evil then why do so many
churches brow beat their members for more?
That chance plays a role in the outcome of hockey games (and seasons) is beyond dispute. As much as hard work, determination and skill? I doubt it, but you cannot discount luck as a factor.
The Canes are a solid team that ran into the eventual Stanley Cup Champs a series earlier than the Caps did. You could (rightfully) point out that the Caps laid an egg in Game 7 against the Pens, but you could equally point out that the Canes laid an egg during the entire ECF.
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 28, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
And I can make a solid point
that the NHL wanted a 7 game series between the Craps and the Pengwhines even if one team laid on the ice and died.
Look, want to say the Canes were only “lucky” or how the wet dream marquee of 7 games in the matchup between Alex “Launch before impact” Ovechkin and Cindy Crysbaby was not Betteman doing?
Go back to your blog.
I don’t post there and I don’t have to read your drivel.
If money's the root of all evil then why do so many
churches brow beat their members for more?
I’m sure that the NHL wanted a 7 game series between the Pens and Caps. More games between the two most recognizable players in the sport would only be construed as a good thing. But come on, they set it up? Really? The corollary to the kind of manipulation that you’re supposing is that the NHL wanted the Pens to sweep the Canes in the ECF so they could hurry up and get to Detroit/Pitt or Chicago/Pitt. Doesn’t paint a very pretty picture of your boys.
Look, want to say the Canes were only "lucky" or how the wet dream marquee of 7 games in the matchup between Alex "Launch before impact" Ovechkin and Cindy Crysbaby was not Betteman doing?
Where did I say that the Canes were only lucky? I only said that luck is a factor in hockey games. In fact, I specifically said that it was probably less of a factor than skill, determination and hardwork. Let me amend that so that it’s clearer; when teams are nearly evenly matched in skill, determination and work ethic, then luck is most likely to be the deciding factor. If one team is clearly superior to the other, luck isn’t going to decide anything because it isn’t going to be relevant. The games simply won’t be close enough for one bad bounce to decide them.
Go back to your blog.
I don’t post there and I don’t have to read your drivel.
I don’t have a blog. This topic happens to be here and I’m posting in it. I’m not going out of my way to offend anyone, nor am I using derogatory nicknames for players. You don’t have to read my posts, so don’t. That you don’t post where I most commonly do has no bearing whatever on that situation.
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 28, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Your blog is
whatever the Caps blog is on SBNation. Post your stuff therre.
If you’re going to come in on a Canes blog, puff up and say, “You guys were swept by a team we took 7 games”, you need not post anything.
Let’s look at it another way. Some teams didn’t match up as well as others. That is obvious.
Round 1: Caps vs NJD
Seeing how poorly the Caps did against the Rangers, it would have been most likely a blow out of the Caps by the Devils in 5, maybe 6 games. As to the “luck” the Canes had in Game 7 vs NJD, if you were to look at games 1 to 6, you’d see that the Devils and the Canes were very evenly matched. Both won and lost in blowouts and squeakers. That the Canes were down 3 to 2 with 2 minutes to go showed that the game of hockey is a marathon, not a sprint. The Canes’ strength lies in conditioning and playing 60 minutes, not 58 minutes and coasting because you’re exhausted.
Yeah, the #2 Caps barely beat the #7 Rangers. The Canes took on the #3 and #1 teams and took them to 7 games. They were exhausted. The Caps played so poorly in game 7 as to make it a defacto rest for the Whines.
So yeah, the Canes lost in 4 straight to the Whines. Please don’t tell me that in game 1 when the 200lb Cole hit that dainty, 250lb flower of a player Gill that he sent him perpendicularly in Fluery as to not just take away a goal, but give the Whines a PP as well.
If money's the root of all evil then why do so many
churches brow beat their members for more?
The Canes took on the #3 and #1 teams and took them to 7 games. They were exhausted. The Caps played so poorly in game 7 as to make it a defacto rest for the Whines.
The Penguins played the Flyers, who are the most physical team in the east, for 6 games and had to mount a heroic comeback in Game 6 to make sure that it didn’t go to a seventh. They played 6 brutal games against the Capitals, all of which were decided by 1 goal and 3 of which were decided in overtime. They played a back-to-back in that same Caps series. It’s not like they were a well rested team coming in, either.
Round 1: Caps vs NJD
Seeing how poorly the Caps did against the Rangers, it would have been most likely a blow out of the Caps by the Devils in 5, maybe 6 games. As to the "luck" the Canes had in Game 7 vs NJD, if you were to look at games 1 to 6, you’d see that the Devils and the Canes were very evenly matched. Both won and lost in blowouts and squeakers. That the Canes were down 3 to 2 with 2 minutes to go showed that the game of hockey is a marathon, not a sprint. The Canes’ strength lies in conditioning and playing 60 minutes, not 58 minutes and coasting because you’re exhausted.
I can play the probably game too! Let’s say that the Canes draw the Flyers in the first round – Given how tough the Flyers played the Pens, the Canes probably would have lost in 5, maybe 6. The Flyers play a gritty, tough game with a mean forecheck and a couple of scoring lines that you have to defend. Sound familiar? It should, that’s the way the Canes would have been described last season. The Flyers just do it better.
That argument sounds just as ridiculous — because it is. On paper, Boston should have curb-stomped everyone in the league on their way to a Cup. They came out of the regular season with the Vezina winner, the Norris winner, the second most goals for and the least goals against. They were dominant in 5v5 hockey. And yet, they were bounced in the 2nd round, by your Canes.
whatever the Caps blog is on SBNation. Post your stuff therre.
If you’re going to come in on a Canes blog, puff up and say, "You guys were swept by a team we took 7 games", you need not post anything.
It’s relevant. There’s a direct comparison between opponents in consecutive rounds of the playoffs. I have a dissenting opinion, convince me why your point of view is correct. The only reason I even brought that up is that someone else compared the Caps to the Sharks in terms of playoff performance, which isn’t really a fair comparison. The Sharks have been failing in the postseason, despite overwhelming talent and regular season success, since the lockout. Last year was the first one that the Caps had any kind of regular season success that would be in any way comparable to those SJS teams since the lockout and it’s been a long while before then. By the way, the discussion is here, so I’ll post here. Sorry if that ruffles your feathers.
Ask Caps fans if they think the reffing was even-up during the Pens series. I can point to a couple of bad calls that would have changed the series, maybe even result in a completely different outcome. Be that as it may, your team wasn’t the only one with perceived grievances with the zebras.
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 29, 2009 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions
You too miss the whole point:
The issue I had was with those who kept chirping, “Well we took the SC Champs 7 games while you guys were swept”, as it means nothing.
Could the Caps have survived the Devils playing as they did vs the Rangers?
Could the Caps have taken out the Bruins?
Could the Canes have taken out Philly?
We won’t know.
That is why the idiotic chirping of, “Well we took the Pens to 7 games you didn’t ergo the only reason the Canes got past the Devils and Bruins was luck as they showed vs the Pens they didn’t belong”, is pure crap.
If money's the root of all evil then why do so many
churches brow beat their members for more?
Quit with the strawman arguments. Seriously. Where did I ever say that the only reason they got past either team was luck? Your responses have been based on things that I didn’t say and empty invective.
That the Canes bowed out a round further than the Caps did is indisputable. That the Canes got swept by a team that the Caps took to 7 games is also indisputable.
Call it tired Devils, call it whatever you want, but scoring two goals in the last 1:58 of a Game 7 against Martin freakin’ Brodeur, a first ballot hall of fame lock, the all-time wins leader and the soon-to-be all-time shutout leader is, is a supremely unlikely event. Was it purely luck? Of course not. The Canes had to play their way into the position in the first place, against a pretty good NJD team.
That is why the idiotic chirping of, "Well we took the Pens to 7 games you didn’t ergo the only reason the Canes got past the Devils and Bruins was luck as they showed vs the Pens they didn’t belong", is pure crap.
The issue I had was with those who kept chirping, "Well we took the SC Champs 7 games while you guys were swept", as it means nothing.
It’s a direct comparison of two consecutive post-first-round series. Your complaint is that it’s not fair to dismiss the Canes based on one series, my complaint is that it’s not fair to dismiss the Caps based on one game. I’m pretty sure that I got the points and that I didn’t have to construct strawmen to do it.
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 30, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not so sure about that
The Canes deserved to be in the ECF.
They didn’t have the gas to continue the marathon so they lost.
The Caps didn’t play well for more than just one game. It was fortunate that 7 of those games was against the Rangers.
A conservative is someone who wants to get rid of all illegal immigrants,
Just as soon as those guys finish mowing his yard and building the shed
Did they play to potential? Nope. But Henrik Lundqvist also stood on his head. Game 2 should have been a blowout and so should have Game 4. Without a truly elite goalie, that series is over in 5.
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 30, 2009 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Let me provide you some contest as to the "supremely unlikely event" that happened...
Since 2002, the Hurricanes have faced the Devils three times in the playoffs (‘02, ’06, ’09.) In those three series, Brodeur is just 6-12 against us, including a 6-0 blowout in ’06 where he was actually pulled. (And on his birthday, no less…I was there.) Do you really think we’ve managed to get “lucky” two thirds of the time against a goalie you acknowledge is one of, if not the best of our time.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 1, 2009 2:19 AM EDT up reply actions
The Flyers "just do it better?"
Funny, I didn’t see them winning much last April and May.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 1, 2009 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions
1. Washington
2. Carolina
3. Tampa Bay (my surprise pick)
4. Florida
5. Atlanta
Both the first two will be extremely dangerous come postseason. Cam Ward is one of the most underrated goalies in the NHL and the Canes’ team chemistry is great. That being said the Caps offense I think will be too much for really any team to handle well consistently.
Cam Ward is actually pretty well recognized as a top goalie in the league. Cory linked this in the last month. Anytime you’re in the running for Hockey Canada’s Olympic goalie you’ve pretty much “arrived”.
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by hockeymomof2 on Sep 28, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
He’s still underrated, maybe not so much after the playoffs and offseason. But you know, I picked the Canes in 7 in both the first two rounds because he really impresses me. Top-5 goalie, come playoffs top-3 or top-2, even top-1 (him or Fleury).
by red army line on Sep 29, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the Caps win the division, but not by a runaway this year. We have a very legitimate shot at it. I agree with red army line ab out the Lightning. They could be one of the big turnaround stories in the league this season. If everything clicks they have the potential to be a scary team, and could even challenge for the division. Perhaps this could be the first year ever (I think) that the Southeast puts 3 teams in the playoffs?
Washington
Carolina
Tampa
Florida
Atlanta
Yea. i think the exciting thing could be 3 teams from the SE division making the playoffs. No doubt both the caps and ‘canes will make the post season – but the thought of the third should (but won’t) end the “southleast” slogan.
wash – just too good not to be
carolina – you can tell me the 3rd and 4th lines are solid, they are, but they aren’t the same caliber team as washington, period. great performance in the playoffs, but the caps are hungry this year to do what it takes.
tampa- hopefully a surpise pick, could see florida here though.
florida – i think florida has potential, could be fighting with tampa, or could runa way with 3rd spot here.
atl – ugh, would love to see kovy in a different sweater
Sure I'm biased, but...
…I do see the Caps winning the Southeast, although it won’t be a runaway. Heck it wasn’t a runaway last year, the Canes were always there, and they did win the season series, 7 points to 6.
The Caps should win the division because they addressed some needs that they had:
1) Going to the net. Viktor Kozlov is a nice player with good size, soft hands, and good talent. Unfortunately, he thought of the net the way most folks from the old USSR think of Chernobyl, and stayed away from it. Knuble has good size, good hands, good talent, goes to the net, and arrives at the net angry… definitely a step forward.
2) Brendan Morrison is definitely going to help line 2. He still has the skills to play the second line center (and yes, Gordon, Lang, and Steckel aren’t at that level). He needs only to keep feeding Semin pucks for the 12-15 minutes that Semin plays even strength each night (Semin is on both the PK and PP).
While many of the Caps had great years last year, it’s also important to remember that most of those players are either entering their prime years, or are in their prime years.
As for Salary Cap issues, the Caps do need to sign Semin and Backstrom for next year, but it’s not impossible. They’re going to lose some significant Cap hits after this season with Theodore and Pothier being done (although I can see them extending Pothier), Nylander’s no-movement clause going away. Additionally, the Caps already dropped some salary when they replaced Kozlov, Fedorov and Brashear with Knuble, Morrison and Laing (savings was about $4M.) I don’t think there’s a major issue there, and they should be able to keep both.
But that’s next year, we’re talking 2009-10. What I see is the Caps winning the Southeast and likely having the best record in the East. There are five very good teams in the East right now: Washington, Carolina, Boston, Pittsburgh and Philly. None of these teams are close to perfect, and all have some deficiencies in some areas. The good news for Carolina and Washington is that these two teams get to play extra games against Altanta, Tampa and Florida, while Boston has extra games against Buffalo and Montreal (better teams) and Pittsburgh and Philly have to play extra games against the Rangers and Devils.
The Caps should win due to their ability to outscore any team in the league. The goaltending doesn’t have to win games, just not lose them (see Theodore, Jose). The Caps should lead the league in goals for, and have the highest PP percentage in the league.
Carolina should finish second not only because Altanta, Florida and Tampa Bay are bad, but because they have solid forechecking, play good defense, and have an elite goaltender in Ward. Eventually Ward will get the recognition he deserves from the media. Heck all he did last year was beat the Martin Brodeur and Tim Thomas in the playoffs. He did ok against Pittsburgh, but no one seemed to score any goals for him…
After the top 2, it’s look out below. I’m thinking Tampa will be a little better, but they have a long way to go. Florida is in for a long season, they don’t have any real goal scoring other than a couple of players, and who knows how low they could go if something happens to Vokoun. Altanta… they’ve got a world class star in Kovalchuk, a stud young defenseman in Bogosian and a talented goaltender in Lehtonen, but they’re really not that good and unless Lehtonen can muster a save percentage of .925 or higher for the year, they’re going to be lottery material.
Let's go Caps!
Morrison, really?
The guy’s averaged a whopping 47 points his last three full seasons. Brind’Amour bettered that last year, and he played poorly.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 1, 2009 2:25 AM EDT up reply actions
I would much rather have everyone else pick the Washingtons, Philiadelphias, Bostons, Pittsburgs, etc. then to pick us to win anything. If you look at the history the ’Canes are much better being the underdog or in the spoiler role. When we are expected to win we pretty much fall flat on our face so I am picking Washington to win the division and I woud even go as far as saying we are going to come in last (as Cory often states IMO).
by hotchipsnsalsa on Sep 28, 2009 12:04 PM EDT reply actions
Thank you for this. I agree this is a much better viewpoint for the Canes’ faithful to take in September. Play on.
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by hockeymomof2 on Sep 28, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Heh, reading NHL boards (not team specific) you’d think the Caps are a bad one-man show with no hope of winning squat.
by red army line on Sep 29, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
What I love is all the comparison to last year and how things will be better this year for the Canes. I might not even disagree, but not its not like the Caps roster stayed static from previous regular season.
Signing of Knuble should not be underestimated. I’m expecting a 30 goal season from him a la Chris’ Clark’s a couple of years back when he played on Ovi’s line. Kozlov was good at possessing the puck but his finishing skills were less than satisfactory. That is not an issue with Knuble. I notice both Bob & Cory dismissed Morrison’s signing. He’s finally healthy this year and I suspect he’s going to surprise a lot of people who have written him off. Just like Knuble he’s not afraid to do the dirty work which is the one major element that was missing last season on our top 2 lines.
Also, Nik Backstrom has not topped off skill level wise yet. He has steadily improved and if he can get his F/O percentage up and continue play solid defense like he did the 2nd half and in the playoffs the Caps become even more intimidating. Caps have a number of young players similar to Backstrom that haven’t topped off potential wise yet.
I expect the defensemen to play much better this season under the tuteluge of new assistant Bob Woods. If preseason is any indication Jeff Schultz may be actually starting to use his frame to inflict damage onto others. In addition, we will have another puck moving D-man now that Pothier is back healthy for a whole season. Judging by how he looked when he came back last year and how he’s looked in the preseason I expect he’ll pile up a healthy number of points from the point this year.
If the Caps keep Quinton Lang on the roster all or most of the season I expect you will notice that their PK numbers measurably improve.
Caps lacked consistency all regular and post season in 08-09 and still won the division. Caps improve on PK and GAA, neither of which should be all that hard to do, and they’ll be SE champs again.
As for Cory’s take that the Panthers will finish in 3rd. I don’t see it. They have little in the way of goal scoring and lost their best d-man. They caught fire last year but as they showed late it wasn’t sustainable. They are a solid team for what they are. Vokoun is great, but he can’t do everything. I expect Tampa Bay barring severe injuries to finish in 3rd. FLA & ATL will battle for the rear. ATL may be better but they still lack too many pieces.
I like Brendan Morrison … but he’s done for. He was healthy last year (81 games) and went 16-15-31. I think many Caps fans are underestimating the loss of Fedorov. He was still a quietly effective player and leader. All that being said, I did pick them to win the division. I just don’t know that they’re better.
As for Florida … I know it’s a reach, but I kind of feel like Bouwmeester may be addition by subtraction. Everyone expected the guy to lead the way, but the truth is he’s just not a dominant player. He’s very good, definitely a No. 1 d-man… but he’s no Neidermayer or Lidstrom.
by Cory Lavalette on Sep 29, 2009 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Not sure where you got your info but he wasn’t fully healthy last year. He has admitted that he tried to come back too soon from injury hence the train wreck in Anaheim. He stated that only in last 20 games of the season did he finally feel back to normal. In addition, the guy scored 16 goals last season in significantly reduced minutes compared to what he would normally be expected to play.
We will miss Feds leadership, defense up the middle, and ability to play defense in a pinch. However, BMo brings 2 of those himself plus better offensive upside at this point in their respective careers. One thing I won’t miss is Feds bad penalties. I’m a huge fan of Fed’s career, but he couldn’t bring it every night anymore at the level Caps needed him to. At the end of this season barring obvious injuries that can’t be anticipated I expect Morrison’s signing will look like an absolute steal.
I don’t get how losing one of the top stay at home D-men in NHL on a team that relies on defense is addition by subtraction.
If you say so … he played 19 games with Dallas and was 6-3-9 (.47) in about 15.5 minutes a night. he played almost 14 a night in Anaheim and was 10-12-22 in 62 games (.35 ppg).
That’s a slight improvement, but not second-line center numbers. I’ve followed Morrison is entire career b/c my day job is at a publishing company and one of our papers is a Univ. of Michigan magazine (where Morrison went). He’s not half the guy he was when he centered Naslund and Bertuzzi. I like the guy, but he’s not suited for that role anymore.
by Cory Lavalette on Sep 30, 2009 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Not arguing his numbers last year were substandard. I gave reasons why he said that was the case and I believe him. I feel confident he’ll be up in the .65 to .7 ppg range this season, especially given who he’ll be on the ice with and that he’ll play around 18 minutes or so a game.
We should revist this topic halfway through the season.
And, as I noted above...
He hasn’t been a #2 (production-wise, anyway) for a while. He was right at the 50-point mark in his two most recent full healthy seasons prior to last year.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 1, 2009 2:29 AM EDT up reply actions
He had 51 and 56 points those 2 years you refer to. I think he’ll get 55 or so this. 55 points = .67 ppg which is right in line with what I stated above. I base this on him playing on 2nd PP unit and playing with Semin, Fleishmann (when he gets healthy), Knuble and possibly a little time with Ovi as BB likes to mix lines a fair amount.
And he was two years younger and healthier.
Guys don’t just bounce back at 34.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 2, 2009 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions
1. Caps
2. Canes
3. Bolts
4. Thrashers
5. Poor Panthers
I think the SE Division will be much closer and more competitive than years past. It will be fun to watch the teams battle throughout the year. I really think that the SE will get 3 teams in the playoffs this year. (I’ve been saying Tampa will sneek in the 8th spot since the draft.)
Canes – better defense, talent ready to come up when injuries/lethargy sets in.
Caps – Another season of a team watching Ovechkin earn everyone else’s paycheck.
Atlanta – Reverse home ice advantage-an oddly quiet arena causes opposing teams to have panic attacks.
Florida teams-panthers will look good at the end, Tampa will steal games from the division but lose to everyone outside of it.
As a preview of the Panthers...
…they dropped an exhibition to a middling team in the Finnish Elite League yesterday. Yeah, it was preseaon.
Their regular season opponent in Europe, Chicago, bombed the top team in the Swiss league 9-2…
Let's go Caps!
fwiw … big gap in the Swiss League and the Finnish one. But yeah … Florida should be beating SM-Liiga teams.
by Cory Lavalette on Sep 29, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Any NHL team...
…should beat any team in any Euro league with the exception of maybe the top KHL teams vs. an NHL bottom feeder (like Florida).
Let's go Caps!
Then I guess we expected Carolina to beat Washington in the poll? I didn’t.
by red army line on Sep 29, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
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