Quick Hits - Tommi Kivisto Staying in Finland

For me, the question is: what is handily? The caps won the division by 11 points last year and weren’t really challenged by the Canes. I could see that happening again. I don’t think it will, but I think that is up to the Canes (more on this later). I don’t think that Mike Green will have another point per game season. I don’t think the Canes will struggle as much as they did last season. You put those two together and anything is different.

That said, the Canes went 3-2-1 against the caps last season and picked up 7 points in the season series compared to Washington’s 6. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect the Canes to do much better next season or the caps worse in the head to head. A 50/50 split seems about right to me. Neither team has done anything that will change that dramatically. So, if we take out 4 point swings in the head to head (i.e. reversing a game the Canes lost to a game the canes win), the Canes can only narrow the gap by A) beating more teams, or B) by the Caps losing more. Let’s look at B first.

What could lead to the Caps losing more games? I think the Caps are going to be hurt more by the Kozlov and Federov loss than others have suggested. I know Bob and Cory like Mike Knuble, but I think Federov and Kozlov, while streaky, were unknowns which made Washington that much more difficult to defend. Knuble is consistent, more so than Kozlov or Federov, but I think he won’t pull defenders away from Ovechkin the way Kozlov and Federov did thus resulting in less ice for Ovechkin and Semin, and to a lesser extent Green. I also think Brendan Morrison is done and the loss of Brashear will lead to additional hits to Ovechkin, Green, and Semin. In the end though, that might not matter. The caps probably still have enough talent to finish next season with 106 points, compared to last seasons 108. I’m assuming that the goaltending won’t be any worse than Theodore’s .900 sv% over his 57 games played.

That means to me that it’s really up to the Canes to increase their point total by winning more games. The Canes finished with 97 points last season. They took the final two games of the regular season off after securing a spot between 4 and 6, so we could be generous and say that would more likely have been 98 or 99. Even still, the Canes have to make up between 9 and 7 points next season to push the Caps. They likely won’t struggle as much from November to January, so there are a few points, but they likely won’t get as hot as they did late in the season, so let’s say that’s a wash. Cam gave up four points or so early in the season, so let’s claim those. That brings the Canes total up to about 101 – 103. To get to 106 the Canes have to win three more games next season then they did last season and Ward has to not mulligan any games. I think Ward will be better, but I think he will still have one or two lapses, which is not bad over the course of a season.

What does that mean? For me, I still think Washington wins the division. Injuries will play a role, but if they’re even, then I think Washington wins by 5 or 6 points. That said, I think the Canes team is built more for the playoffs then the Caps, so the Canes need to worry about getting in any way possible, which I think they should be able to do with the projection of 98 – 100 points.

P.S. sorry about the length, but camp is less than a week away and it’s time to start seriously discussing hockey!