Are the Washington Capitals Ripe for a Fall?
by Bob Wage on Sep 9, 2009 11:02 AM EDT
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PrintThe Washington Capitals have won the Southeast Division two years in a row. Most hockey prognosticators have picked them to repeat as champs again this coming season. The Caps have the best player in all of hockey and they happen to have a couple of other pretty good players on the team as well.
Will they repeat? Is the choice a "no-brainer" like most seem to feel it is?
Well this blogger says, maybe not.
Why might Washington be ripe for a fall? First of all, has any (non Cup winning team) in the history of the NHL had as much notoriety as these guys have had this offseason? Perhaps it's the media's fault, but it has been non-stop Caps news all summer long. It seems like they have gotten more attention than the Pens.
Some of the highlights:
Ovie's new tattoo, Ovie rides zamboni in NYC, Ovie featured at Russian restaurant in Manhattan, Ovie opens a clothing line in America, Ovie helping models play field hockey, Semin and Ovie partying in Russia, Ovie signs with Upper Deck, Caps to be featured on "The Real World", Green to be featured on "Cribs", Ovie enjoys sex before games, and Varlamov insults American women.
Head coach Bruce Boudreau has been working on a book.
Last but not least, defenseman Mike Green created a new website that screams, "I'm more arrogant than you!"
In the meantime, the Carolina Hurricanes have had a nice quiet summer of training. One must wonder, have the Caps had much of a chance to train at all? Perhaps they don't need to?
Another reason the Caps might not live up to expectations? Most of their top players had career years last season. Will they be able to repeat?
Mike Green had 31 goals in just 68 games while his previous high was 18.
Nicklas Backstrom had 22 goals and 66 assists while scoring 14 and 55 his debut season. But he only had 11 goals and 16 assists the year before that in Sweden.
Alexander Semin also had a career high 79 points in just 62 games.
Alex "The Great" Ovechkin came close to his career high of 112 points, (he had 110), but missed three games.
Is it reasonable to assume that all of these players will continue to achieve career best numbers?
Let's compare these favored Capitals to the Canes, a team everyone picks to finish behind Washington in the standings.
A couple of facts sometimes get lost in the shuffle when comparing these teams. One is that Carolina advanced further in the playoffs last postseason. Another is that the Canes won the head-to-head matchup last year with a 3-2-1 record. They earned seven points while the Caps earned six and outscored their rivals, 19-17.
There have been a few changes on both teams. Washington lost Sergei Fedorov and Viktor Kozlov and replaced them with Brendan Morrison and Mike Knuble. The Canes lost Anton Babchuk, Dennis Seidenberg, Patrick Eaves, and Ryan Bayda. Their new players are Andrew Alberts, Aaron Ward, Tom Kostopoulos, and Stephane Yelle.
Maybe the Capitals are not heads and shoulders above the Canes after all? Let's compare the teams, line to line and player to player. (glove tap to JP with help on this, although the lines will be mixed)
| Caps | Canes | |||
| 1 | Ovechkin | 110 | 77 | Whitney |
| Backstrom | 88 | 75 | Staal | |
| Semin | 79 | 42 | Cole | |
| 277 | 194 | |||
| 2 | Knuble | 47 | 31 | LaRose |
| Laich | 53 | 43 | Cullen | |
| Fleischmann | 37 | 54 | Ruutu | |
| 137 | 128 | |||
| 3 | Steckel | 19 | 48 | Samsonov |
| Morrison | 31 | 51 | Brind'Amour | |
| Fehr | 25 | 27 | Jokinen | |
| 75 | 126 | |||
| 4 | Clark | 6 | 22 | Kostopoulos |
| Gordon | 14 | 18 | Yelle | |
| Bradley | 11 | 15 | Walker | |
| 31 | 55 | |||
| 1 | Green | 73 | 35 | Corvo |
| Schultz | 12 | 12 | Gleason | |
| 85 | 47 | |||
| 2 | Poti | 13 | 33 | Pitkanen |
| Jurcina | 14 | 10 | Ward | |
| 27 | 43 | |||
| 3 | Alzner | 5 | 13 | Alberts |
| Pothier | 3 | 10 | Wallin | |
| 8 | 23 |
There is no doubt that the top line match up has to go to Washington, but what about after that? The second lines could be considered a toss up, but the third and fourth lines are "advantage Carolina." Other than Mike Green, does anyone on the Caps defense scare you?
There is no need to put up the goalie stats, the Canes also have the advantage in net. While Theodore has been assured of the starting job, (at least in camp), most Caps fans are expecting Varlamov to eventually take over. While the young Russian can stand on his head at times, he is inexperienced and unproven and can allow more than his fair share of softies, as evidenced by his performance in the playoffs last year. I believe Alex Semin was quoted as saying, "As long as he only allows one soft goal a game, we're okay".
One could say that from top to bottom, the Hurricanes have a better, overall team. The big question is, can they stop Ovechkin and that top line? When the Canes have been able to limit that line's scoring, they have been successful. But obviously, that is easier said than done.
Bottom line, perhaps Washington bloggers, fans, and the experts around the league should slow down and pause a moment before prematurely handing the division title over to the Caps. The Canes have improved, the Thrashers are better, and the Lightning also made some moves. But will the Capitals be better than they were last year? Time will tell.
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We’ll see how long it takes the Caps fans to sniff this one out and start the verbal sparring.
Satan is just a coping mechanism for monotheists.
Took us just under an hour
I found it via Puck Daddy at about 2pm. JP put up his own post about it a few minutes later.
Good times, good times.
IS PAЯTY NOW
Great piece, Harwood. As you point out, let me add some incongruent images to demonstrate what I (as a hockey mom) find telling:
- Can’t you see Timmy Gleason with his own wild-boy website? He’s so dedicated to cashing in on his new-found hottie image.
- Eric Staal with a line of super tight black and silver club-wear? And those before- and after-game extra-marital trysts have got all of Raleigh winking when we talk about his hat-tricks!
- Weren’t our Finnish threesome romping thru the late-night celebrity circuit with dozens of Babes of Helsinki? Jussi, Ruuts, and Pits drunk on stage with all the tinsel was not a pretty sight.
- Cam Ward dissing southern girls for not being hot enough? “Too much Sweet Tea and Barbeque” he said with disgust.
- Somehow Chad LaRose’s summer just didn’t have an MTV reality show? Doesn’t he know Roddy’s a has-been; he needs to be networking with the other hot boys of the league if he’s gonna get anywhere is this man’s NHL.
Shucks – maybe next year.
Different kind of priorities our boys have. If there are hockey gods, I think we’ll come out fine.
I’ll wait for this headline to get linked to the Caps and other SBN sites, and then see who comes over to comment.. (so please make sure you have your secondary-assist card at the ready.) I think with all the attention on the Caps/Pens series when we were handling big ol scary Boston at the same time (this after surpassing the invincible Marty B), very few were watching the Canes till we fizzled when we had to face the eventual cup winners. (especially if they were relying on Versus)
I predict 50% or more of the disputes will come from that painful Pens series alone, disregarding Feb, March, April and most of May. And paraphrasng the eloquent and circumspect blogger from Boston when he wrote about stand-out veteran Yelle, you never know just what might become on “one man’s trash”. (please refer to the list describing the Caps “Summer of 09”)
Of course, I’m troubled that now you’ve blown the Hurricanes’ stealth status, letting the cat out of the bag here. Maybe we should go back to talking about the Mighty Canes in Traverse City, and let the rest of the NHL believe they don’t have to worry about us for another 5 years. (wink wink)
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 9, 2009 1:21 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Worth a try? After all, with that lousy logo on the sweaters, how can anything respectable come our of Carolina??
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 9, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I am predicting this will be Carey Price 2:Electric Boogaloo.
More Faux hawks this time.
by Iggy Reilly on Sep 9, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It’s the lead on Puck Daddy today.
This ought to spice things up before Camp quite nicely. Put on your ponchos.
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 9, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
That first part was hysterical HM, well done. I frankly am glad that we fly under the radar when it comes to stuff like that; although Chad should have his own reality series.
Could they call it “Year in the life”?
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 9, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
To murder a phrase
They can call it whatever they want so long as they don’t call me late to air time!
The Prospects game is in the second (canes vs Atlanta) here’s the box score – i’m headed up to the post o the McBain interview.
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 9, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
The boys need to get going
I hate losing to anything associated with the Thrashers.
LMAO! (who’s Bubba?)
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 9, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Really?
Bob – you must be smoking crack…The Caps will win the division by 10-20points easily.
20 points?
So, if the Caps match last seasons 108 then the top team in the SE could only get 88.
I don’t doubt that Washington can, and likely will, win the SE. What I would say though is that Carolina is much better prepared and staffed for the playoffs.
The Caps might up their record to about 112-114. The Canes could also improve into the mid 90s. I don’t see a 20 point margin, but 10 points isn’t out of the question.
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 9, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Improve into the mid 90s???
We had 97 last year
False Hope
You like giving Hurricane fans false hopes don’t you???
Good write up but I have two things to add.
- The young guns are not at a plateau or going downhill. Citing Backstrom putting up excellent numbers in his first two years in the league only reinforces how good he is and how likely he is to keep getting better.
Will they all crush their numbers from last year? Probably not, but I expect all of the numbers to be in the same ballpark and I wouldn’t be too surprised if any of them put up better numbers. - I think the playoff argument works against you as well. The Canes played the same team the Caps played and got destroyed. Maybe the summer has put some fog on those games but the Canes didn’t even look to be in the same league as the Pens.
The Caps took the Pens to game 7. The Pens won all the other games by 1 goal and two of those were in OT.
A different game 7 or some better luck of the Caps not putting the puck in their own net in OT and I could easily see the Caps in the SCF last year.
Comment first, think second, read third.
One more thing
I was looking at the line comparisons and so much could happen with this as far as point totals.
Fehr and Flash can finally have breakout years. Clark is healthy for the first time in 2 years. There is no way he’s only putting up 6 points this year. Morrison is healthy and should put up more points. Nylander could somehow be good again.
Also, you could make some simple line rearrangements just using your existing data for the Caps and then the whole thing looks completely different. Like so:
Comment first, think second, read third.
Thanks for saving me the trouble. Those lines were very off and seemingly construed to give the Canes an advantage.
Now I have no idea how many games players on the Canes missed, but it’s hard to make direct comparisons like this when it’s obvious Clark, Fehr, Green, Semin etc all missed major time.
Good points, although there are no guarantees the Caps could have beaten Boston. Goaltending is extremely important in the playoffs. no? Ward was reportedly injured against the Pens, but the Caps obviously fared better. No argument there. That’s one reason why the Canes got bigger in the offseason.
GM of CanesCountry.com
Well the Caps wouldn’t have had to play Boston but since you bring it up…
They played Boston extremely well all season . There is no reason to think they couldn’t have had a great match-up with them. I don’t have the data but I think the Bruins won 1 out of 4 against the Caps and it was in OT?
If we’re talking about injuries the Caps had their fair share too but those always seem silly to bring up. Mike Green playing with one arm hurt the Caps a lot against the Pens.
Goaltending is extremely important. As shown by Varly coming down from his super hot streak halfway through the Pens series. It wasn’t really talked about in your post so I didn’t bring it up. It’s the one big advantage I think the Canes actually have.
The Caps have 3 guys that could possibly be really awesome but the Canes have the best goalie in the division for right now.
Comment first, think second, read third.
I didn’t bring it up?
There is no need to put up the goalie stats, the Canes also have the advantage in net. While Theodore has been assured of the starting job, (at least in camp), most Caps fans are expecting Varlamov to eventually take over. While the young Russian can stand on his head at times, he is inexperienced and unproven and can allow more than his fair share of softies, as evidenced by his performance in the playoffs last year. I believe Alex Semin was quoted as saying, “As long as he only allows one soft goal a game, we’re okay”.
GM of CanesCountry.com
Yeah I read that.
I just meant talking about Cam Ward specifically. It is basically the best argument for the Canes having a shot at toppling the Caps and you glossed over it and instead focused on those really weird line combos.
Almost like saying, “There’s no reason to talk about offense. The Capitals have Ovechkin Backstrom Semin and Green.”
Comment first, think second, read third.
The goalie issue...
…isn’t really debatable yet. Ward has proven he is an elite goaltender in the NHL and probaby the best in the Southeast. He is the only starter that has a Stanley Cup ring (and he won the Playoff MVP to get it.) Until something on the ice changes the situation, Ward is better than anyone the Caps can put in the net.
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 9, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t know if I’m being misunderstood somehow since I’ve said this at least twice already but I’ll paste what I’ve already posted that sums it up in one sentence.
The Caps have 3 guys that could possibly be really awesome but the Canes have the best goalie in the division
Comment first, think second, read third.
The Caps were 3-0-1 against Boston last year… of course they were 3-0-1 against Pittsburgh during the regular season too…
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 9, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Ovie’s new tattoo, Ovie rides zamboni in NYC, Ovie featured at Russian restaurant in Manhattan, Ovie opens a clothing line in America, Ovie helping models play field hockey, Semin and Ovie partying in Russia, Ovie signs with Upper Deck, Caps to be featured on “The Real World”, Green to be featured on “Cribs”, Ovie enjoys sex before games, and Varlamov insults American women.
:: rubs eyes ::
I’ll admit I never expected to see any of this from any team that plays in the provincial hinterlands of Washington DC. We’ve always been the workmanlike Redskins and the trying-hard-but-not-getting-anywhere Bullets/Wizards, and the frat rat Duck Fuke crowd at Cole Field House.
This Moscow/Hollywood fusion is unheard of in DC.
It’s also a helluva lot of fun.
And I think they’ll play us a little hockey along the way. I can’t wait.
Regards,
IS PAЯTY NOW
I find it almost comical (no offense to the writer here) that these events are being understood as a major problem. The majority of them involve just one person and he gets publicity because he’s a high profile player who only visits his home country (who’s media is crazy for him) once a year.
On top of it, most of those events literally happened within the last month.
Ovechkin Stuff:
- Tattoo was early summer but got blown out of proportion only recently.
- Zamboni deal is part of his NHL2K10 cover and literally happens today, along with the rest of his promo tour of New York for the league, Versus, etc.
- Restaurant event never even happened (but was intended as part of that NYC tour)
- The clothing line launched over a year ago. The “models play field hockey” was just (yet another one day) promo for Reebok in Russia.
- Partying? You’re really going to criticize him for partying with Semin in Russia. Okay.
- Upper deck: < a month ago and that involves what? Taking a picture? Not even.
- Ovechkin on sex: Early August.
Other:
-“The Real World” was literally a one day event (as far as we know) that involved a guy skating around like an idiot during a practice. Happened yesterday.
-Green on Cribs. Happened last week. What’s the problem exactly? Is he going to lose his scoring touch because he let a few cameras in his house?
-Green’s site. He paid someone to make a site, and he posts a weekly blog. And? Again, only a couple weeks old.
-Varlamov found a girlfriend in August who he’s already no longer dating.
-Boudreau’s book: Someone can correct me on this, but wasn’t most of the effort for the book done prior to the summer? And it’s not as if he was sitting in front of a typewriter every night writing it himself.
Is it really Ovechkin’s fault that he’s virtually followed everywhere by media? Is it his fault he’s given every opportunity to promote some product? Spend a few hours with a company in front of cameras, earn cash.
Is it being suggested that no Canes player partied over the summer? No Canes player dated a woman and no Canes player got a tattoo? The media follows whoever can get them advertiser money and hits on their webpage. That’s Ovechkin and the Caps right now.
It’s been a busy August and September, but that’s to be expected with the season around the corner. Every player mentioned in this post has been working out, on their own in addition to olympic camps.
I don’t think he was trying to say that all of that attention was a bad thing (correct me if I’m wrong Bob). The way I read it was “the Caps are getting a lot of attention this offseason, even more than teams that went deeper into the playoffs; maybe the media has picked them as the favorite to win it all; the added pressure and attention may be a little tougher to handle than in past seasons.”
Maybe this will have no affect. shrugs My opinion is that it had an affect on Staal and Ward during the offseason of 2006. Obviously, I could be wrong. ;-)
GM of CanesCountry.com
Considering what happened to the Canes in 2006-07, there is a very real danger there.
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 9, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Ovechkin received a ton of publicity after winning the big 4 awards last year and it affected him by causing him to win only 3 of the big awards this year.
At least from my point of view, it’s not really a concern. It’s not as if Ovechkin just joined the league last year. He was busy last offseason too (though admittedly not to the same extent).
If there’s concern about anyone, it’s Green, but he showed up well for the Canadian camp and came several days before training camp for informal veteran workouts in great shape.
Varlamov found a girlfriend in August who he’s already no longer dating.
It should be pointed out that Varly was dating Dasha for a fair amount of time while he was in DC, then took her around Russia for some summer R&R, then promptly tossed her under the bus as soon as he realized he had to get busy and TRAIN. Very possbly within 24 hours of Boudreau announcing that JT would be his #1 goaltender.
Coincidence? I think not.
Coach B is a bit of a gamesman, it would seem.
PS New Caps goalie coach Arturs Irbe has a little shout out to the Caniacs today
IS PAЯTY NOW
Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think the real defining factors are:
1) When the Capitals play like crap, they win more than half their games
2) When the Canes play like crap, there may be 20 teams better
The Caps to my eye look like, at least on the top-6 forwards, more heavily laden with talent. That’s why they can take nights off and still win. The Canes, on the other hand, can’t take nights off or the team will suffer. The Canes should make the playoffs, but I think the margin at the end will be around Caps = Canes + 10 pts. (Personally I’m predicting 108-98).
In other words, it’s possibly, but highly unlikely (even if Ovechkin gets injured, I don’t think the Canes can win the division. But if two or more of the “Young Guns” go down, then…)
By the way, I think Semin would normally take shifts on line 2, Brendan Morrison as the #2 C, and Laich on wing.
by red army line on Sep 9, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Ten points seems in line
But without Ovechkin creating space and drawing match ups other guys will face tougher challenges. Not to mention without Ovie streaking down the ice the puck might spend a lot of time near Theodore or Varlamov and is that really a good thing?
Semin takes his spot. He, in case you haven’t noticed, is an amazing player and if it wasn’t for durability he’d be a lock top-5 winger in hockey (even now, he arguably is). Sure, the Caps suffer, but it’s not as if the Canes lose Eric Staal. It’s more like the Pens losing Crosby.
by red army line on Sep 9, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
your crazy...
If OV gets hurt for more then 2 weeks… the Caps are dead.
Maybe that “taking games off” is what keeps them from ever going all the way?
by packpigskinfan25 on Sep 10, 2009 1:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Man, I wish teams around the league still felt the way you do. It made for some easy wins when Semin, Backstrom, Green and Laich (and Fedorov last year; Knuble this year) were able to score unimpeded while everyone focused on Ovechkin.
Sadly, the rest of the NHL has realized that there’s a very good team behind Ovechkin…
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Sep 10, 2009 6:24 AM EDT up reply actions
ummm…
your teams GA is one of the highest in the league.
maybe Semin, Backstrom, Green, Laich, and Fedorov DID get some extra points from teams focusing/game planning around AO.
How many of those 3-4 games did the Caps win without AO? I know one was against the Canes- and the Canes won… I think the Caps won the other two, but do not remember…
by packpigskinfan25 on Sep 10, 2009 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions
For what it’s worth, I think you guys might be a little lean in the middle after Cullen, subject to change if Rod comes back to form. Plus I can’t see how P-Mo keeps the pace he did when he came back last year.
Granted, I still think the Caps will win the division, though not handily and in a much tighter race through the whole year.
"The worst thing you can be is a liar...Okay fine, yes, the worst thing you can be is a Nazi, but THEN, number two is liar. Nazi 1, Liar 2."
A Caps Fan Rebuttal...
First of all, to me, the Hurricanes are going to be a playoff team, and I would say they are likely to win at least one round in the playoffs. That said I don’t think the poster’s argument for the Caps top players not getting better hold that much water and here’s why:
Of the players he mentioned having career years last year: Backstrom, Green and Semin, only Semin is 25 or older, and he will turn 26 in March of the coming season. Semin is in his prime right now, while Backstrom and Green haven’t really entered their prime yet, they could get better. Not to mention that Alex Ovechkin turns 24 next week… he’s just entering his prime years, scary as that sounds, and could put up better numbers.
On the defensive side, the six defensemen listed above are not likely to be the six defensement that play most of the games. Sure Green, Poti, Alzner, Pothier and Schultz will play a lot, but if Carlson keeps getting better, Jurcina, Erskine, etc. will be in the press box a lot. The poster also left out Shaone Morrisonn who is, as of this writing, still with the Caps.
The loss of Fedorov will be felt, but Brendan Morrison should be able to replace him adequately on the ice, and there is no doubt that Mike Knuble will be step up from Viktor Kozlov. Kozzie had great hands and good size, but for some reason didn’t like using his size and going to the net. Knuble lives to camp out at the top of the crease. He’ll be getting most of the right wing minutes with Ovechkin and Backstrom.
Morrison will be taking over Fedorov’s role as the second line center on the team, likely centering Alexander Semin and Brooks Laich. Whether the chemistry will work with them together remains to be seen (I think though that Laich and Morrison will play well together…)
As for the 3rd and 4th line, the Caps don’t look for a lot of scoring there, but Steckel and Gordon are two seriously good checking forwards.
Again, I don’t think the ’Canes are a bad team, on the contrary, I think they may be the 3rd, 4th or 5th best team in the conference and certainly a top 10 team in the NHL. The Caps and Penguins are definitely better in the East (Boston is debatable, but the Canes, I think are slightly better. Boston will have a better record with all those games against Toronto, Ottawa and Buffalo padding their record…)
We’ll see how it plays out, but it should be a great season for both teams… and who knows, maybe the Caps and Canes can get it on for the Eastern Championship….
Let's go Caps!
You’re welcome. :) Personally, I think the Caps/Canes rivalry is very underrated and should be pumped up more. What I like about the rivalry is that when I’ve been to Raleigh for games I’ve never thought rooting for the opposing team everyone in the arena has been courteous. I certainly hope the same is true for Canes’ fans in DC (I see a few every game, but not too many folks make the trip up I-95…)
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 9, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
In my childhood, pre Canes, I used to spend a lot of time in DC. Went to quite a few Caps games. Always had a good time.
I liked your point about Boston’s sorry division. Maybe this is the year the SE sheds the southleast moniker? I doubt it, even if ATL and TB do improve on the ice, the Canadian media will still love to crap on the SE.
Atlanta will be a little better (they couldn’t get much worse) and Tampa still has defense issues. Alas, the Panthers could be the worst team in the NHL this coming season (at least east of the Mississippi, Colorado is going to be awful too) so the “southleast” moniker might stick.
Until the division sends 3 or 4 teams to the playoffs (not gonna happen this year) the Canadian press will eye the division with disdain.
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 9, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Considering that both SE teams made it out of the first round, not to mention Florida’s near miss to get in, I’m not concerned about it.
Piss off, TSN!
"The worst thing you can be is a liar...Okay fine, yes, the worst thing you can be is a Nazi, but THEN, number two is liar. Nazi 1, Liar 2."
True...
…although Florida isn’t going to be a near miss this year.. they’re going to miss by a whole lot. The question is if Atlanta or Tampa have improved enough to make a run at the playoffs… I don’t think they have. Plus if Atlanta doesn’t get Kovalchuk signed by the deadline, they’ll have to deal him to get something for him…
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 9, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not yet willing to write off Tampa. They may surprise and end up very similar to Florida from last season. There is a lot of talent down there in Tampa. I’m not betting on Tampa sniffing the playoffs, but I won’t be surprised if it does happen.
Anything's Possible...
…but their goaltending situation is probably the worst in the division (including DC). Combine that with the fact that they’d be fighting with Montreal, the Rangers, Jersey, Buffalo, and Ottawa for a playoff spot (I’m thinking Boston, Pitt, Caps, Canes, and Flyers are all pretty much locks for the postseason).
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 10, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
True on I-95, and going to the game in Atlanta as a visiting fan, you’re more likely to see a win…
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 9, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions
DC traffic is aweful. Hate it. To get to an Atlanta game you don’t even have to go into the city. Marta stop in Gwennit and you’re on your way to Phillips.
DC’s Metro can take you to the arena as well (It’s built atop Gallery Place metro), but the traffic around DC is bad too. Most people in the DC are live in one suburb and work in another, as opposed to working in DC.
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 10, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
that’s what I had intended to imply. The far-reaching MARTA stops just make for an easier trip for out-of-towners than the Metro. So much so the convenience often makes me wish I was a Thrashers fan (but that’s about the only reason LoL).
I used to have a girlfriend at CU and I’d sometimes jump on the Metro at Alexandria. Even that was too close to DC to drive for my taste :-).
I think we actually lost just as many, if not MORE games against ATL last season…
by packpigskinfan25 on Sep 10, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not denying the Caps players are entering their prime
But can you really expect may of those players to have a significantly better season? Greene could play a few more games this season, Backstrom a few more points, but don’t you think the Caps are at about their ceiling? They’ll probably stay there for a while, that offense is extremely potent. But, how much better could the offense get?
The D is another question. There’s room for improvement there, but is it likely to come this season?
I don’t understand your point.
I don’t think it matters. The Caps don’t need the offense to get better for Semin, Ovi, Backstrom, and Green. When each player is basically tops in the league it’s not some horrible thing if they don’t keep setting record seasons.
And yes, the D will be better this season. There has been a coaching change at that position. Alzner is likely to be up, and everyone is young so it’s just another year of experience under the belt.
Comment first, think second, read third.
Mikes initial comments were in regard to the offensive players entering their prime and potentially putting up better numbers. I was responding to that. However, this thread put my response way down here since then.
Backstrom should put up better numbers, as he’s still young (and btw, in Sweden, defense is a huge part of being a center, the thing taught to players first. I bet there are other players who’ve had less-than-stellar numbers in the SEL to have great NHL careers). Semin will be if he is healthier. Green I don’t think will score as many goals, but he should get 20 and maybe hit 80 points (again, coming with health). Ovechkin should stay around 55 goals and maybe will bump up his assists with Knuble (theoretically) banging in all those rebounds.
So yes, the point totals can improve.
by red army line on Sep 9, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
How can you have all of those totals and have Ovechkin score 110 points? It’s more likely the offense as a whole does what it did last season. Not to say those guys couldn’t put up those numbers, just that realistically a team is going to have about 750 points a season and between Ovie (110), Greene (80), Semin (70), Backstrom (70), you’re talking about half of those points between four guys.
That’s how it is. All of them log big minutes, a lot of PP time, Backstrom and Ovechkin play together, the offense is top-3 in the NHL IMO, and frankly, I think given good effort the entire year (not coasting for 40 games again), they will flirt with 4 100 point players.
Reading carefully, I had several “maybe” phrases in there. But seriously, there isn’t a great argument against—or for—them all hitting 100 points.
by red army line on Sep 9, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Again, a typical team is going to score about 750 to 800 points. You just can’t get four players to 100 point campaigns, unless you’re the Edmonton Oilers of the 80’s.
If everything falls right for this Caps team, you really can. The PP clicked at 25.2% last season and was substantially better than that in stretches of the season. All of the guys on that list log a huge number of PP minutes; there’s really only one unit, but when it’s going to feature Ovechkin, Green, Semin, Backstrom and Knuble camping the crease, it’s going to be vicious.
Ovechkin is a 110 point player, Backstrom should flirt with 100, if Semin is healthy he’s an 100-105 point player and Green can hit 80. I don’t see 4 with 100, but three is in no way out of the question, but it requires a healthy Semin. That’s a big if. The Caps really are that top-heavy in production, or at least they were last season.
Again, a typical team is going to score about 750 to 800 points.
This is not your typical offense.
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 9, 2009 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Fine then, find a team that isn’t the Oilers with 4 guys getting 100 points. Or better yet, find one since the lockout. It can’t be done. You’re overestimating the offensive prowess of the Caps over the entire season.
No, I don’t think so. The Caps team in 1997 did, by the way, IIRC. Green may prove to be the best offensive defenseman post lockout in the NHL, Ovechkin is a generational talent, Semin is a great-two way winger with all-world offensive upside, and Backstrom is centering one of those last two. Green is a stretch for sure, but all it takes is one great season. That being said don’t be surprised at 3 guys with 100 points.
by red army line on Sep 10, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Since 96-97 there have not been more then 7 guys in the league to hit 100 points in a season (happened in 05-06 and 06-07). Only 4 times have players on the same team reached 100 points in that stretch. Only once has a team come close to having 3 players reach 100, and that was Pittsburgh in 2000-2001. So, are you saying that the Caps will do something next year that no team has been able to do since 96-97?
Also, checking hockeydatabase.com, I found no Caps over 100 points in 95-96 or 96-97
Again, I’m not saying any of those 4 don’t have the potential for a 100 point season. What I am saying is that it is unreasonable, if not impossible, for all four to hit 100 points in the same season. A team in this era is only going to score so many goals. To score 300 goals in a season a team needs to average 3.6+ per game. For all four of those guys to hit 100 points the Caps would realistically need over 350 goals which is 4.26 per game. No team can do that in this league at this time.
Again, you are overestimating the offense.
Again, everyone has said we won’t have 4 100 point guys. Everyone says we can have 3 if Semin stays healthy. You’re arguing a straw man.
Pre-lockout numbers have little value based on the way the game has changed and the increase in scoring. I’m not sure where you got your 4.26 goals per game number but it doesn’t strike me as very reliable. It highly depends on whether the players in question are on the same line, play PP together, etc. If you did that analysis let me know, otherwise it looks like you pulled it from thin air.
A man must have a code.
350 goals/82 games = 4.26 goals per game. Not hard math there.
Who is this everyone who has said the Caps will have 3 100 point players? The Caps will have two, at most, at that will be a huge accomplishment in and of itself.
Seriously, go to hockeydb.com, do a little looking around. Start here:
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/top_league.php?lid=nhl1927&sid=1988&leaguenm=NHL
You’ll see that no team has had 4 players with 100 points, even the Oilers of the 80’s who scored more times than anyone else.
Knee High, Red Army, Killer Carlson, and myself have all said we don’t expect the Caps to have 4 100 point guys. We’ve all said that 3 is possible if Semin is healthy. Nobody is hammering this “Caps will have 4 100 point guys” argument that you are hung up on.
350 goals is a totally arbitrary number. I understand that math, but I don’t know why it has to settle on 350 goals for. If AO, Semin, Green, and Backstrom are regularly getting 3 points out of a goal on the PP then they will all rack up points quicker than the Caps rack up goals; conversely, if that group gets 1 point per goal then it will take a lot more goals.
Obviously the real number of points those guys get per goal will be somewhere between 1 and 3 but neither of us have anyway of knowing that, and the total number of goals the Caps need drastically changes based on that.
A man must have a code.
I think Semin could emerge as 90-100 point guy if he stays healthy (a big if…) Backstrom could also push 100 points, especially with Knuble in front of the net swatting in rebounds (Kozlov acted as if the net was radioactive and stayed away most of the time). I do think there is a bit of an upside for the Caps still on the front line.
Green, even if he plays more games this season will be hard pressed to get to 30 goals again. Then again, considering he plays almost the entire power play, it’s not out of the question that he gets 25 goals. The D could be better, and I think it will be somewhat better. Carlson and Alzner learned about pressure and playing tough in the Bears’ run to the Calder Cup championship. That will help them in this coming season.
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 9, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Can Ovechkin, Semin, Backstrom all have 100 point seasons in the same year? Can they do that and have Greene put up point a game numbers? I’m not denying the could (well, Backstrom maybe a little, but he’s young and I would not bet against him), I just don’t see how they will do that on the same team in the same year.
I think the offense could put up the same numbers as last year as a whole, but I don’t see them getting much better total numbers.
If the defense improves though, that could make the Caps very dangerous.
Yes, I believe it can happen. Likely? Not that much. Semin may not be able to reach 100 points given durability and ice time. Backstrom looks like he’ll get there at some point, but I don’t know when that’ll be. Green I can see improving his assist totals (Markov led the NHL last year in assists). And Ovechkin for next season is more or less a lock.
by red army line on Sep 9, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I certainly think Backstrom can get to 100 points very soon, especially since he spends a good deal of his time playing with Ovechkin. Add a solid, go to the net guy on their line (Knuble) that he and AO haven’t had before, and 100 points seems reasonable.
Semin would be a 100 point guy too, if he can stay healthy for 80 games or so… that’s proving to be a big “if”.
Green isn’t likely to ever hit 30 goals again (although he did it in 62 games…) but I suspect his assist total will go up. Again the presence of Knuble here will help, especially on the power play. The Caps power play last year was #2 in the league, but they relied on bombs at the end. This is ok with Green and AO at the points, and Backstrom, Semin and Kozlov feeding them. Now, change it around and put Knuble in front of the net instead of three perimeter forwards, and the dynamic will change, and could make the power play even more effective.
I suspect Green’s goals will go down, but his assists will go up with this change.
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 10, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Thing is, the Caps’ young guns don’t need to have significantly better seasons. The Canes need to catch up to the Caps (in the standings and the offense), not vice versa. So even if the Caps offense doesn’t improve at all (which I think is very unlikely), they still have the offensive advantage.
by Killer_Carlson on Sep 9, 2009 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Semin is ................. well, look at this...........
Of the players he mentioned having career years last year: Backstrom, Green and Semin, only Semin is 25 or older, and he will turn 26 in March of the coming season. Semin is in his prime right now, while Backstrom and Green haven’t really entered their prime yet, they could get better.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDRCpN4OMpM
I cannot imagine any situation where Cole, Staal, or Brind’Amour would ever do this ………… crap.
My God, this is hockey. This is why Canes fans don’t respect that team. This is one of your leaders.
Oh you got us good!!!! If only we could have a manly man like Scott Walker out there just sucker punching dudes in the face maybe we could win the division…
(Seriously, I hope this Semin link is posted more than 3 times in this thread. It’s so hysterical I just can’t get enough.)
A man must have a code.
Not that again...
…it still makes me laugh.
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 10, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
If you really knew Caps fans . . .
you’d know that we never think anything’s in the bag. Our history haunts us. That said, when you speak of career years, you’re talking about players in their early-to-mid 20s. Both Backstrom and Green are both trending up. Will Green have better numbers? Maybe, maybe not, but there’s a fair chance that, healthy, he becomes a more well-rounded defenseman. If healthy, Semin is a potential 45-50 goal player. Of course, as Caps fans, we don’t take potential for granted — nor do we assume perfect health for anyone.
While we aspire to a hoist of the Cup, very very few Caps fans have hoisted the 2009-10 Southeast Division Banner at the Phone Booth at this point. The Canes’ll be tough and I think Florida will challenge as well.
And I think it’s not another 12 easy points off of Tampa again
by red army line on Sep 9, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I don’t think the Capitals will beat their Point total from last year. If they do it will be because they step up their game against the Western Conference.
Comment first, think second, read third.
Admittedly that’s a lot of room for improvement. I don’t think CBJ and LAK sweep us again.
by red army line on Sep 9, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s only four games, and with the insane travel that an olympic year brings, anything can happen. Not to mention that every team loses a season series to a team they shouldn’t. You may do better against CBJ and LAK next year, but do you think you’ll take 7 of 8 points from the Bruins again?
The olympic angle is an interesting one too. The Caps have a lot of their A-listers playing for their respective countries. So having them tire themselves out for 3 weeks with nothing to show for it (nhl-wise, they might get a gold medal) can really affect how things go when teams are pushing for a playoff spot. For the ‘Canes, we have Staal, Ward (but I doubt he’ll be tiring himself out) and a couple of our Finns gone. Plus we have stronger scoring depth than the Caps. So what does everyone else think?
The Caps have a lot of their A-listers playing for their respective countries…. Plus we have stronger scoring depth than the Caps.
I’m sorry, I can’t let this contradiction slide by. The reason the Caps have more A-listers in the Olympics is that they have stronger scoring depth.
Remember the chart up above in the main post, where the Caps have 80 more points from their top 2 lines than the Canes? Yeah, those top line players are the kinds of guys who get Olympics invites.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Sep 9, 2009 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions
That was kinda my point. Those are the players who are going to have 3 extra weeks of playing. I was talking about a fatigue factor when the playoff push begins. When I said depth, I meant the ‘Canes have more balance throughout the 4 lines (see the numbers above). So I guess we’ll see how the Canes and Caps deal with the fatigue when they’re vying for playoff position. Right now I’d give the SE title to the Caps, but I think the points gap between the clubs will close a bit after to Olympics. It should make for some interesting hockey to see who comes away with the SE title.
I think we have different definitions of “scoring depth.” I think the second line is “scoring depth.” That’s why they call it “secondary scoring.”
And as has been pointed out at length here, the “numbers above” for the Caps’ 3rd and 4th lines are a little misleading. They include (1) a 33-year old, former 30 goal scorer, who played 32 games last year and is now healthy; (2) a 34-year old who averaged 50+ points until suffering two years of injuries, and is now healthy; (3) a second year pro who scored 25 points while averaging 11:15 over 61 games and who is due too get maybe double that total ice time if he recovers from surgery this year; (4) a pair of players who showed more scoring touch in the playoffs than they had done in the regular season; and so on.
The Canes’ 3rd and 4th lines are older. Samsonov (31), Brind’Amour (39), Jokinen (26), Kostopulous (30), Yelle (35), Walker (36). And other than Walker, they pretty much all played full seasons last year.
I’ll take the “over” on the Caps’ 3rd and 4th line scoring versus the numbers listed above. I’ll take the “under” for the Canes, since they’re all past 30.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Sep 10, 2009 6:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Concerning the argument that the Caps best players have yet to reach their prime-
Again, to make a comparison with Staal. His career year so far was 2005-06. Did he max out and reach his prime at age 22? There are many factors and intangibles that go into a “career year” besides a player’s age.
GM of CanesCountry.com
Is better linemates one of them? Or better health? Or better offensive depth?
by red army line on Sep 9, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
The key to that is “so far.” I’d be willing to bet there are zero ‘Canes fans that think they’ve seen the best Staal has to offer, or that he’s reached the peak of his development. It’s no different for the Caps Young Guns. They aren’t just going to disappear.
A man must have a code.
You’d be wrong. The Staal haters will come out of the woodwork.
All joking aside, I agree with what you’re saying for the most part. Maybe a better way to phrase it is the young guns of the Caps have more room to falter than improve, at least in terms of points production. Obviously the players and the franchise have more important goals in mind than, well, goals.
Obviously a player with high points totals has more room to falter, but the question isn’t “who has more room to falter” it is “who is more likely to falter.” AO has been remarkably consistent in his 4 years so I see no reason he’ll falter. Backstrom has increased his point totals over the two years and has consistently developed his game and looked more comfortable playing NHL hockey. Semin puts his numbers up in about 75% of the season so a full season gives him a huge potential to increase his numbers. Green is the one who I think is most likely to see his numbers drop, but even he missed so much time he could see equal or possibly increased production. Even if he doesn’t score quite as much I think Green’s all around game will continue to develop and he’ll be a better player next year than he was last year. Media attention and personal flairs aside, there is simply no reason to think the Young Guns will fall off terribly.
A man must have a code.
Canes have more depth, better D and better goaltending. The Caps first line could be kept in check more than past years with the size the Canes have acquired this offseason.
Depth doesn’t matter if there’s no top end talent. Say there’s a team with 20 skaters with 10 or more goals. Only 200 goals. Between Ovechkin, Backstrom, Semin, and Green you’re getting two goals a game, meaning the rest of the team probably only needs to add another 1.5 to make it work. Also consider minutes.
The depth analysis, as previously stated, doesn’t take into account GP (don’t know how that affects the Canes though), nor that the Caps must’ve used 40 different skaters over the course of the season. For a while they had the most man-games lost to injury of any NHL squad.
by red army line on Sep 9, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Canes 4th Obviously Better Than Caps 4th?
That’s hard to say. If Clark’s healthy for an entire year, he (1) puts up more points and (2) camps out at the net, showing his Captain leadership. It’s also important to note that production from the 4th line isn’t just measured by points — also face-offs won, which of the 4th liners (like Boyd Gordon) have large special teams roles?
I’m not saying yr wrong Killswitch, but I don’t think it’s as immune to argument as you say.
Yelle and Kostopolous will both play on the PK. Yelle matches Clark in terms of cagey veteran with playoff experience. He’s not the captain, but he brings leadership. Yelle also gets the nod of faceoff wins. Walker brings physicality and toughness. He and Kostopolous both play extremely well against the boards. It’s close on the fourth line, but I think the ad here is for the Canes.
Bringing in Yelle will do wonders for the Canes’ PK. He’s a specialist and he works his butt off every shift. He was a great pick up for the Canes, and he will definitely help vs. the Caps in the 6 games they play the Caps.
The defense of the Canes and Caps are not much different in terms of overall talent, it’s jus that the Caps’ D has more extremes, in that they have a guy like Green and a guy like Jurcina skating regularly. The Canes don’t have anyone like Green, and they don’t have anyone as bad as Jurcina…
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 10, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
well said all around. The reason I like the Canes D more is because of the balance. The top 2 pairings have great balance between a player with offensive tendencies and a stay at home guy. The 3rd pairing isnt bad but may have some trouble outletting. I also think the players fit the team better with the Canes needing to rely on some goals from the D and at the same time needing to not get caught in odd-man rushes at the other end. Green is an awesome talent but the Caps dont need his scoring ability, defensive sound guys would suit their style of play better and thats what I think they are lacking.
I disagree that the Caps don’t need Green’s scoring ability. The guy runs the power play as well as anyone I’ve seen since Al MacInnis. Of course he doesn’t shoot as hard as MacInnis (Chara’s close…) Defensively Green is average or a little above it, but he’s never going to win any awards for his defense. Paul Coffey didn’t either, but he certainly was valuable to Edmonton, Pittsburgh and a few other teams ;-)
He does get caught occasionally, but he is pretty quick and some times he’ll get back in time. He also plays a lot with Backstrom, who has good defensive instincts and will move to the point Green abandons when he goes to the net as often as not.
Look at it this way, Green had 73 points last year, 38 on the power play, 34 at even strength and one short handed. He was in on 35 plus situation and finished +24 Despite the fact that most of his points were in non-plus situations, he was second on the team in +/-. Only Semin was better, by 1. His defensive game will improve with age (he’s the same age as Ovechkin), as seems to be the case with most young defensemen.
As for his website… well, that can only improve (oy!)
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 11, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
From what I’m hearing, Yelle’s biggest assets are his FO%, his resume which is chock-filled with play-off appearances, and his leadership skills. We’re thrilled to welcome him to Raleigh.
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 9, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions
You can't be serious...
If you were referring to a team that has hit it’s ceiling due to age (Red Wings, Leafs, etc) I would agree with you- however the one thing that goes for this team is that the majority of players are in their early twenties, and a huge stockpile of talent is waiting in Hershey.
Do I think the Caps will repeat… yes. Could they bust, sure…. anything is possible.
But there is something you did not mention in your article. This team is seething over losing to the Penguins in the playoffs… this motivation will be huge…
Box
This team is seething over losing to the Penguins in the playoffs… this motivation will be huge…
I’m sorry – but I’m pretty sure this refers to both the Caps and the Canes – and I’m not sure which one you meant.
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 9, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Caps and Pens are big rivals. Two young teams, rebuilding, hitting the jackpot during the lockout in the draft, returning to dominance as elite teams. And the Caps were the ones with home-ice and the 2-0 lead.
by red army line on Sep 9, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Again:
Two young teams, rebuilding, hitting the jackpot during the lockout in the draft, returning to dominance as elite teams.
Make that three. We got Staal and Ward. You got Ovie. They got Malkin and Crosby. Except we’re in a non-traditional market with a smaller population and no history to use as a springboard. So of course we’re easily overlooked because we don’t have any Moscow/New York celebrities.
Oh – but then only 2 of us have won the Cup since the lockout.
Oh – but then only 2 of us have been to the Eastern Conference finals, twice, since the lockout.
Maybe you were right about “two” after all.
(And we have the Eric vs Jordan rivalry to boot – which isn’t really nasty but certainly adds to the hype.)
If you want to read an ugly thread – check out the post-game 3 conversation here at CC when the RBC was inundated with Pen fans who came down for Memorial Day weekend.There’s no love lost between us and them.
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 9, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
you have a point…
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 9, 2009 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
There are a lot of weird people that like the Caps and the Pens.
Comment first, think second, read third.
Other than Gary Bettman?
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 9, 2009 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
a lot of weird people that like the Caps and the Pens
I forgot – you gotta add in the entire executive suite at Versus.
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 10, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
There are some… there are a couple in the section I sit in, who are there in red at 39 home games. At the two Penguin games, they’re there in black and gold…
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 11, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
This team is seething over losing to the Penguins in the playoffs… this motivation will be huge…
That’s true off both of these teams (and the Flyers to boot…) The Caps have much more history with the Penguins though, losing in 1991, 1992, 1995, 1996, 2000, 2001 and now 2009…
Remember 1994! ;-)
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 10, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
I think the jist of it is that it can be close, but not as likely as you make it out to be. I mean, we’re not talking about the Canes winning a close heated race, we’re talking about the Canes winning after the Caps just collapse Ottawa-style.
The difference was 10 points last season. Canes got 7 points in the head to head series while the Caps got 6. That’s not likely to change too drastically. That said, if the Canes flip 2 games, which could be done given the points they gave away early in the year before they started to struggle, and the Caps run in to any injuries it’s not that hard for it to come down to the final week of the season. I still think the Caps win the division, but I don’t think it will take a collapse for the Canes to be close/win the division.
The Caps had a TON of injuries last season to a lot of key players. If they only have an average amount of injuries this season they are still in better shape than last year. Both teams had injury issues and gave away points, so it’s not safe to assume that one team will have the advantage over the other in either of those categories this coming season.
by Killer_Carlson on Sep 10, 2009 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m not saying that one team will have fewer injuries than the other. What I am saying is that the Canes are going to put out a team all next season that was as good as it was at the end of last season. It’s not out of the realm of reality that doing so will add a few points to the 97 total the Canes put up last season. So you add four points to the 97 and you get 101. The caps had 108. That’s 7 points. In an Olympic year that one extra good week for the Canes and one extra bad week for the Caps. Again, I still think the Caps win, but I don’t think it will take a collapse for the Caps to lose the division to the Canes, just an extra roadblock or two.
About the Olympics: I can realistically see, at a max, 5 Caps Olympians: Backstrom, Ovechkin, Semin, Green, and Fleischmann. All young, so it shouldn’t make a big difference. If it does, it will because of illness or injury, not because the season got longer. They don’t have conditioning issues.
by red army line on Sep 10, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Scratch that, I meant 6. Add Varlamov. But here’s saying four, 19, 8, 28 and 52.
by red army line on Sep 10, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Jurcina should also be in the Olympics for Slovakia…
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 10, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
There’s something to point to with pride….Him, Chara and F Kaberle? All they need are some forwards and a goalie and they’re set. =D
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 10, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't forget...
…for Caps ace Peter Bondra is the Slovakian national team GM…
I don’t envy his task.
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 11, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
The Canes are going into camp with a definite #1 (Cam Ward), the Caps are going in with a definite #1 (Jose Theodore). That said, the team most likely to make a change in goal coming out of camp is certainly the Caps…
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 10, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
To bad that 2K Sports make crap games and capitals need to watch out this season !!
by Holty_Panthers_Fan on Sep 9, 2009 4:39 PM EDT reply actions
I look at it this way:
2008-2009
Caps: 272 GF, 242 GA, goal differential = 27
Canes: 239 GF, 226 GA, goal differential = 13
So the Canes have 14 points of goal differential to make up.
I figure Knuble for Fedorov is at least a wash, and so is Morrison for Kozlov (and Bourque or whoever for Brashear). Varlamov is a big upgrade over Brent Johnson, and could significantly drop that GA number. In other words, goaltending won’t be any worse since Theo is still with the Caps, and it could be much better. I could also see GA dropping because of young defensemen gaining experience, because of graduating prospects like Alzner or Carlson making a big impact, and/or and because of new assistant coach Bob Woods. So even if the young guns drop off a bit, it’s not obvious that the Caps will lose goal differential.
So how are the Canes going to gain those 14 goals of differential?
The Canes lost Anton Babchuk, Dennis Seidenberg, Patrick Eaves, and Ryan Bayda. Their new players are Andrew Alberts, Aaron Ward, Tom Kostopoulos, and Stephane Yelle.
The "lost" players combined for 32 goals and 90 points. The "new" players combined for 19 goals and 63 points. That’s a net loss of 13 goals and 27 points. Looks like some pretty significant losses to me.
Florida barely missed the playoffs at the end of the season. Atlanta and especially Tampa have both upgraded. Carolina may need to worry more about holding on to #2 than to overtaking the Caps for #1.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
I’m with you there. They’re quietly getting better. And they’ve got great goaltending.
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Sep 9, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
good question:
Starting point to make up those points:
Cole, Jokinen, Pitkanen, maybe even Brind’Amour
The first 2 were late arrivals last year and made huge contributions down the stretch.
Pitkanen will have a lot more oppotunity to do what he does so well, with A Ward at his side. Brind’Amour has the mindset to post some more points – we’ll find out if the body is willing soon enough.
And this will be the so-called “contract year” for Matt Cullen who fought injury most of the season. Can we say motivated?
I know there are a bunch of folks out there who can show we also win the close ones. So simply looking at goal differential may be a little simplistic.
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 9, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
To further echo that point, Brindy was 16-35-51 last season. He alone could make up half of that 13 goal/27 point loss. Cole in for a whole season over Williams mostly injured over 2/3 of a season could also make up a lot of that loss. Pitkanen was 7-26-33 last year playing with Seidenberg. Playing with Ward this year should allow him to roam a bit more. I’d expect 41 points (.5 points a game) out of Joni this season.
All of that is possible, but I wouldn’t count on all of it coming together at once. I can tell you stories about why (1) Chris Clark will be back to his 20 goal ways after two years of injuries, (2) Brendan Morrison will be back to his 20 goal, 40 assist ways after two years of injuries, (3) Tom Fleischmann’s upward trend from 10 goals in 07-08 to 19 last year will continue, (4) Eric Fehr will approach 20 goals after scoring just 12 last year (61 games, only 11 minutes or so a night last year), (5) Brian Pothier’s return and the promotion of young defensemen prospects will add 10 goals scored by the defense, (6) Dave Steckel will double his goal total by taking a lot of the minutes that went to waste-of-space Michael Nylander, (7) Chris Bourque (or anyone else) will take over Donald Brashear’s spot on the 4th line and contribute 5 goals, etc.
If we’re just counting on folks who were part of last year’s roster to do better things, then we can all play that game. Alex Semin played 62 games last year; Rod Brind’Amour played 80. Who do you want to bet increases his point total more?
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Sep 9, 2009 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Further to the heart of the matter, which set of players do you think has maxed out/plateaued: AO/Semin/Backstrom /Green or Brindy/Whitney/Cullen/Cole? It’s a pretty easy pick in my mind. If the Caps should be scared that the Young Gun production falls off then the ’Canes should be downright petrified at what they are relying on beyond Staal.
A man must have a code.
We're not talking about the same thing....
The comment was comparing the isolated 08-09 season stats . Whitney had a great year. The rest were let downs from previous production which can be explained by circumstances.
Our young guns are clearly not the 4 you mentioned (which surely you know)!. Maybe look at Staal, Ruutu, Jokinen, LaRose, Pitkanen, Gleason. And we’re mighty excited by the attention the young prospects are getting in Traverse City. Hopefully the Hershey Bears and the River Rats will get to know each other a little bit this year too?
Y’know, Paul Maurice was interviewed on the Hodge Stove series (when the Canes played Toronto in January). He made an interesting comment to what he was assuming a mainly Canadian audience. He was saying that in Raleigh the players were willing to commit to playing "as a team: which is the key to success in pro hockey. As a coach in Toronto, he said he clearly had loads more talent (hoping his Canes/Caniacs weren’t listening?), but he never was able to convince the Leafs’ players to buy into the system and “play as a team”. That was all the difference to the success on the ice. The Canes (and Caniacs) approach the game as a roster, not as headliners. Rutherford is praised for his mastery of that.
So while you guys love to tout your names, we love to watch our team, all 20 of them. Again, let’s look at the last couple years in the post season and see what works better. “Talent” or smart and disciplined team-work? I think it takes both. But I might give teamwork the edge.
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 9, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think I missed the point. I picked the guy I picked because that is who CAR relies on for scoring after Staal. Ruutuu is promising but not really there yet, IMO. I wasn’t comparing the young talent on the teams, I was comparing the core talent.
Seeing as the Canes didn’t make the playoffs for the last 2 years before 08-09 I’m not sure what you’re talking about. The Caps went through a painful rebuild and then made the playoffs two years in a row, getting better each year. If you are suggesting the Caps don’t play as a team, I suggest you watch more Caps hockey. The one real basis of comparison that these teams have in the last couple years is the Caps going to 7 with PIT and the ’Canes getting swept.
A man must have a code.
you missed my point or are intentionally twisting things.
I never said that they have maxed out, I said that it is hard to keep beating your career best year after year. Most players have good years and bad years, they are not like machines who do better and better and better every single year.
Brindy/Cullen/Cole got below their averages. It’s reasonable to assume they will match their production or do better. When all your major point producers go above their previous averages, it’s hard to assume that all four will do so again.
we will see.
GM of CanesCountry.com
But you also picked guys before their primes. Projecting numbers of young guys before their primes is not the same as projecting veterans. I think your point is much more valid in the context of veterans than it is for young guys. I don’t look at it as “did he have a career year” (after all, AO didn’t have a career year last year in goals or points). I look at it as whether or not the players are continuing to become better hockey players. With respect to the Young Guns I think it’s hard to conclude that they are not becoming better hockey players.
A man must have a code.
Let’s make that bet. I get to pick four current Caps players who played 40+ games last year, you pick four current Canes who played 40+ last year. We’ll see which group increases its total number of points more.
I pick Ovechkin (age 24), Backstrom (21), Semin (26) and Green (24). Who’ve you got?
Atta dinnin stick a who!
by Gould Old Days on Sep 9, 2009 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Cole, Brindy, Ruutu, Jokinen. All of those guys will go up.
Ovechkin and Greene are maxed out. You aren’t going to score significantly more then a point a game on defense in the league and it’s silly to think that it can be done. How much higher than 110 can Ovie go? Semin had injuries, so there’s some potential. Backstrom had 88 points last year, how much higher can he conceivably go on the same team with Ovie and Semin and Greene? You keep talking about upside, which is all well and good, but not every player on a team can score 50 goals in a season. Not every forward on a team can score 50 goals. A team is going to net no more than 300 goals in a season. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, you simply cannot have 4 guys score 100 points on the same team in this league. It is not possible.
It’s true that it is very unlikely that all four of those guys get 100 points. But it is reasonable to suggest that AO gets his usual 100+, Baxter gets 90+ (possibly pushing 100), and Semin and Green are both at 80+ points (and that is probably on the low end for Semin if he is healthy, but that is a significant if). And even that is an improvement over their point totals last year (where only AO had over 90 points and Semin and Green were below 80).
How much better is Brindy going to get at 39 years old? Cole is also in his 30s, he may be a little better, but what upside does he have? Ruutu just had a career year at 26, he might improve, but by how much? Jokinen had a good playoffs, but will he carry that over to the regular season (Fernando Pisani, anyone)?
The four Caps mention could all stay put with their point totals, and I still don’t see the Canes offense improving enough to catch them.
by Killer_Carlson on Sep 10, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
The question wasn’t which group would score more next year. The Caps group clearly will. The question was which group will have a larger net increase in point total. As you noted, there’s not a lot of room to go up on that Caps group. For Green and Backstrom to go up, Ovie almost has to go down. Semin had the injury issue, so there is room.
Jokinen and Cole were both playing in terrible situations for a great deal of last year, both of those have room to go up 15 to 20 points. Brindy is likely to go up 10, and I think Ruutu goes up 5 or 10. So, say 30 up combined from Cole and Jussi, 10 from Brindy and 5 from Ruutu gives a net increase of 45 points over last season. Can Semin, Ovie, Greene and Backstrom realistically look at improving a combined 45 points over last season? I don’t think that’s likely given how good they were last season. It’s not to say they can’t do what they did last season, just to say that realistically those four players combined can only increase so much next season.
I disagree that Ovechkin has to go down for the others to go up. Generally you’ll have two of them taking shifts together, sometimes, three, sometimes four (this is normal on the PP). There can be up to three points per goal. Ovechkin just went down by 9 over the past two seasons.
by red army line on Sep 10, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Just two years ago, Ottawa scored 300+, no? And PIT made the postseason with 116 points as a 5 seed?
by red army line on Sep 10, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
The year after the lockout two teams scored more than 300 goals, Ottawa with 314 and Detroit with 305. The next season only Buffalo broke 300 with 308. Since then no team has broken the 300 goal plateau. The game simply is not that wide open to score that many goals right now. Realistically, teams max out about 275 goals now if we throw out Detroit’s 295 last season, which is the only total higher than 275 in the last two years. Even 275 is difficult. So, if there are three points awarded for every goal, which is not the case, then 275 goals leads to 825 points. Again, it’s not realistic for four players to have half of the teams points.
As for Pitts season, they had 105 points as the fifth seed in 06-07 and scored 277 goals.
I’d agree with you on Brind’amour improving his numbers from 16-35-51 if he were still in his 20s, but he is clearly on the downside of his career and his numbers reflect that. He had a miserable first half (where he was probably still recovering from his injury that ended 2007-08 early) but he adjusted like quality players do and had a great second half.
If he repeats his 51 points, but cleans up his +/-, then he will have a successful season.
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 10, 2009 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Brindy also is probably the hardest training player in the NHL… so with a more healthy knee, I dont see how he wont bring in at least 10 more points…
His age and durability are major questions- but I dont think Brindy would be happy with a 51pt, 10+/ season, and Canes fans expect more out of him. EVEN at his age.
by packpigskinfan25 on Sep 10, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Don’t forget that with a tighter defensive game we may be able to cut the GA and create a wider margin without scoring another goal. Under Lavi (25 games), we had 74 GA or 2.96 GA per game. Under Mo (57 regular season games), we had 147 GA or roughly 2.58 GA per game. That actually adds up to 221 GA (I don’t know where you got 226…and our GF is listed at 236, not 239) which brings our margin to 15 which is a little closer to the Caps’ 27. If Mo continues to stress constant defensive awareness (and taking into account our more defensive minded blueline), I don’t see any reason why we couldn’t shave a few more GA off of our total.
Excellent point. Caps love to score, sacrificing their D. They do it well. But unless you have balance and strength at both ends (and a goalie everyone can count on), the whole team is fragile with a lop-sided strategy. That is what Mo showed us very well.
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 10, 2009 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Playoff success is different than regular season success. The Canes have playoff success. The Caps are realizing this now, now that they have gained valuable playoff experience. Staal and Co. gained experience when they won in 06. Will Carolina be better than Washington? On paper no. Realistically? probably not. But come playoffs its a toss up. I dont see the canes winning the division, but I have been wrong and it isnt out of the picture. Come playoffs though, you will see a totally new Capitals team with something to proove. I guarantee that. Great post, and i cant wait to come down to Raleigh to see my Caps play beat the Canes.
You've just earned yourself an invite to a tailgate
I can offer good company, ridiculous amounts of hockey talk, and cold beverages.
Tailgating...
…that’s one thing we don’t have here in DC with an arena in the middle of downtown. Lot of good restaurants though (I recommend Tony Chang’s Mongolian Barbecue… all you can eat, and cooked as you watch… great stuff.)
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 10, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
You won’t regret it. If you take the metro to the game, go out the “Chinatown” exit near the arch (you can’t miss the arch). Tony Chang’s is about 3/4 block up on the left from the metro, and has brass columns at the door. There are actually two restaurants in there, the BBQ is on the main floor and the seafood restaurant is one flight up (also good, BTW).
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 10, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Website...
Not a lot of info, but it has the address and phone number:
http://chinatowncenter.net/tonycheng/index.html
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 10, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
No Problem… :) Just make sure you let them do the seasoning based on what you select. You can do it yourself if you want, but they’re the experts.
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 11, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Would be a tremendous series if these teams ever met in the playoffs. I think many fans would have a tough time making it to the end.
GM of CanesCountry.com
Nah...
…they should play for the Eastern Championship.
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 10, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Wow – over 100 comments and most folks aren’t even home from work yet. Congratulations, Harwood!
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 9, 2009 5:47 PM EDT reply actions
Thanks – i’ll head there now (is it current or an old tape?)
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 9, 2009 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s a featured story in the top left rail (above all the links)
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 9, 2009 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Let's just wait and see
what happens between October and April.
Oh man...
… the Caps and Canes are going to have some great games this year.
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 10, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Why wait?
Bitter rivals – Good! Crazy quantitative analysis – Good! Smash mouth hockey – Good! Smack talking with fans form Canes and Caps – Good!
Why do we have to wait a month before the first puck of the season drops?
by Porglast on Sep 9, 2009 8:30 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
great post, fun comments
I don’t think anyone here would deny that the Caps are the favorite for the division. I also think that if the positions were reversed – Canes coming off 2 straight division titles, Caps coming off a surprising playoff run – you Washington types would be looking for a reason that your team would be better than expected this upcoming season. That being said, a Canescountry glove tap to the Caps posters for being sane and friendly. Look forward to having a beer and some barbecue pre-game with you and then kicking your ass.
by Gillimus on Sep 9, 2009 8:49 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Wowsa
At least there’s a “discussion” brewing! I think the Caps will definitely be tested more this year; I think it’ll be tough for the Canes to top them in the division, but crazier things have happened. The Canes will be better than they were last year unless injuries set in, and I think it’s up for debate whether the Caps have improved (not that they needed to do a whole lot).
I’m sure both fanbases can agree that the more competitive the SE is, the more pissed off Ross McKeon at Yahoo will be… and isn’t that really the main objective?
Other than winning the Cup, of course…
The Caps’ depth down the middle would worry me. They will miss Fedorov more than people realize. I really, really like Brendan Morrison — always have — but asking him to be a second line center at this stage is asking a bit much.
Brind’Amour got so much crap last year b/c of his plus/minus and shaky play, but Morrison — a one-time Ironman like Brindy — has not only been hit by injuries but mediocre play the past two seasons. Down the middle, the Canes are better (center and goal), and on the wings it’s all Caps. Despite Washington having Green, I think the D’s aren’t that far apart. Alzner needs to prove he’s ready for a big role. If he does, edge def. to the Caps.
Morrison has been looking quite good in informal practices, just fyi. Based on his comments, there’s no reason to think he won’t follow the typical post-ACL surgery recovery, which involves are truly awful first season back, and then the wonderful feeling of having a wonderful, functional, non-troublesome knee the following year. I think Morrison will be a valuable (and cheap!) addition.
Believe me, everyone in DC and the greater Capslandia is painfully aware of the huge loss Fedorov is, particularly those who us who frequent JP’s. But he can be replaced, and hopefully Morrison is that guy. Honestly, after watching Feds in Columbus, did anyoen expect him to have the turn-around he had in DC? Here’s hoping playing with the crazy Russians will ahve the same affect on Morrison.
Quick question. I can’t find the exact numbers for either team (only Mirtle’s projected numbers, which were calculated in mid-March), but how many man-games did the ’Canes lose last season? The Caps were right around 400, and while a good chunk of those (73, to be exact) belong to Brian Pothier, the Caps were absolutely decimated by injury and illness this past season. Some nights, we joked were were going to watch “Ovie and his Hershey Friends” play hockey. There were times where the D-man corps was 4 or 5 Hershey guys. We got in the habit of counting how many guys came out of the locker room after each period because they were dropping like flies during games (at one point, Brooks Laich was pressed into D service mid-game. Scary). And the Caps were beating legit teams with the Hershey call-ups.
Anyways, I don’t want to just come out and say “If the Caps manage actually stay semi-healthy this year, they’ll be pretty darn unstoppable” because I don’t know what the ‘Canes situation last season was. So I’d be curious to know, and continue the discussion from there.
Sure there are a lot of questions with the Caps, but we can raise at least as many about the Canes.
Is Brindy’s off year a fluke, or a sign of his career coming to an end?
Is the 37 year old Whitney going to keep up his production?
Is Cole ever going to show the consistency or playoff performance to match his reputation?
Is Cam Ward going to build on last year or still struggle with consistency?
Is Jokinen’s playoffs a sign that he is something more than a shootout beast?
Is Larose going to build off of his career year?
There are a lot of things that could go wrong for the Caps giving the Canes the advantage in the division, but there are also a lot of things that need to go right for the Canes.
by Killer_Carlson on Sep 10, 2009 12:28 AM EDT reply actions
Thanks everyone for the comments and discussion. Would be nice to see the entire Southeast Division do well next season.
GM of CanesCountry.com
GMBH, I rec’d this whole thread. It’s been fun storming the Canes Country Castle, even if JP wouldn’t let us send our enforcer over to take on your goon. He said Japers’ Rink was trying for top-to-bottom blog toughness. Me? I like to see the gloves drop from time to time but he’s the boss.
And BTW, JP’s link here asked if the Canes fans had reason for optimism. And the answer is of course! It’s a brand-new season. We all get to be optimistic.
Good luck and good hockey.
IS PAЯTY NOW
With all the talk of tailgating...
…maybe there should be a “Japer’s Rink” trip to Raleigh for a game, and a “Canes Country” trip up here. Alas no tailgating here, but like I said, some damn good Mongolian Barbecue…. (There are benefits to the arena being in Chinatown!)
Let's go Caps!
Yes, this needs to happen. Good times and good conversations all the way around. This definitely needs to happen.
Augh!
All six Caps/Canes games are weekdays…
Mon Nov. 30 @Car
Fri Dec 11 @DC
Mon Dec 28 @DC
Wed Mar 10 @DC
Thu Mar 18 @Car
Thu Mar 25 @Car
Those two March dates would make for great tailgating days, though… springtime in the Carolinas is usually nice… :)
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 10, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
wow...
the NHL really screwed us on that one!
I guess they figure its a guaranteed crowd bringer- so put it on the weekdays when attendance is usually lower.
by packpigskinfan25 on Sep 10, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Looked up the goals totals based on Zephyrs lines above…
Ovechkin 56 Whitney 24
Backstrom 22 Staal 40
Knuble 27 Cole 18
Tot: 105 82
Smith 34 Larose 19
Morrison 3 Cullen 22
Fehr 12 Ruutu 26
Tot: 49 67
Laich 23 Samsonov 16
Steckel 8 Brind’Amour 16
Flash 19 Jokinen 7
Tot: 50 39
Clark 1 Kostopolous 8
Gordo 5 Yelle 7
Brads 5 Walker 5
Tot: 11 20
Defense in =/-
Green 24 Corvo -7
Schultz 13 Gleason -2
Poti 3 Pitkanen 0
Jurcina 1 Ward 16
Alzuer -1 Alberts 6
Pothier 0 Wallin 1
To me this showed some interesting points-one our second line does outscore the Caps. More surprising was that our third line does not. I am not the only canes fan expecting better things from Brind’Amour this year….or else. Our fourth line is likely to be changed so often that players on that line lonly see forty or so games this year, if everyone stays healthy. Also, our best +/- rankings come from players that were on other teams last year. Hopefully our defense will be much improved.
Which of the caps players listed were out with injuries? I would assume clark and Steckel. Looking at last years’ ahl seasons the Bears waxed our Rats. For the Canes to get the division they will have to keep it close throughout the regular season until the olympic break. If Russia has a deep run, or Washington has more large injury losses I think the Canes could make yet another late season run, hopefully this time competing for the divisional title, not just a play off spot.
I would not be surprised to see both teams in the top four of the eastern conference. I think Pittsburgh has lost a bit of edge, and with the cup on their back teams will be gunning for them in a way that they weren’t last year. But at the same time, their games are played by a different set of rules. If the games had been called like our boston series it would have been much closer. I would be surprised if Beantown can repeat this year either, as the off season seems to be questionable for them, but if they own their division again they may be atop the standings with those soft points again.
Clark, Poti, and Pothier all missed a lot of time with injury, and Semin, Gordon and Green also missed 20, 19 and 14 games, respectively. Alzner also only played 30 games last year, but not because of injury.
Also, you have the wrong stats for Morrison on the 2nd line. Defenseman Shaone Morrisonn scored 3 goals last year, but Brendan Morrison is more likely to be the 2nd line center, and he had 16 goals last season. Makes the 2nd lines a bit closer.
by Killer_Carlson on Sep 10, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, and Fehr only played 61 games and Schultz 64. Last season was not a good year for injuries on the Caps.
by Killer_Carlson on Sep 10, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't really see the point...
…in comparing stats from last year. Off hand I don’t know about the Caps, but new linemates, new teams – too many factors to determine based on stats. You can tweek stats to tell any story you want. I’d rather base arguments on outlandish claims – more fun and impossible to argue against ;-)
Just sayin :-)
LOL – That’s the Canes Country way!
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 10, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Steven Colbert was interviewing Anderson Cooper a ways back, and Anderson said something to the effect of, “…and see the facts really point to…” and then Colbert cut him off to say, “I don’t like facts. Facts can change. My opinion…now, my opinion will never change.”
We’re stuck with facts at Japers’. JP keeps handing us clipboards with all these numbers on ’em…
IS PAЯTY NOW
hockey wonk?
Let's go Canes!
Hakkaa Paalle!
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 10, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Fact is both teams, as others have stated, should be top 5 in EC next season. Last season’s regular season point totals don’t too much for me given large amount of injuries for both teams, the coaching change in Carolina, and new players added to the mix. I actually expect both squads to improve their point totals slightly from last season.
Goaltending – Goaltending certainly right now favors the Canes. I’m a huge fan of Ward’s development. Even been caught defending him over on Japers Rink. His numbers have improved steadily. . Too many question marks for Caps right now.
Defensemen wise it’s about a toss up. Caps have a number of good youngsters as well as vets like Pothier and Poti. Plus the Caps have a ton of depth (like they do at many positions). Only problem is besides Green no one else is a stand out and Caps lack a lock down D-man. Canes are stronger from a defensive standpoint, but lack fire power and depth Caps have on blueline. Wallin is a guy I love to watch play (too bad he plays for the opposition).I looked at rosters again several times and I can’t pick a winner here. I say its a wash.
Offense – This goes to Caps. Ovi, Semin, Baks, Knuble, Flash, etc. plus blue line offense from healthy Poti, Green, and Pothier. Staal, Brindy, Whiteney and Ruutuu can’t make up enough ground in this category.
I think the Caps win SE again. The real question should be who goes further in the playoffs. As a Caps fan obviously I’m hoping its the Caps however Rutherford has done a good job constructing the Canes as a playoff style squad. Ward can keep them in every game. I give the Canes a slight edge in the playoffs. This is due to various question marks I have about Caps defense (both forwards & dmen) and goaltending. If Knuble, BMorrison, and Clark bring what I think they are going to and Varly gets technically sound then I reserve the right to happily flip flop come early April.
I have said from the beginning-
Caps still win the division… Canes get the 4th slot, with more points then the 3rd.
by packpigskinfan25 on Sep 10, 2009 6:27 PM EDT reply actions
So who is the ugly sister of the division winners? I have to imagine the Atlantic winner will have a lot of points so I assume you’re looking at the NE. That requires a pretty serious drop off from BOS. Is that what you’re thinking?
A man must have a code.
yep
Do you really think Tim Thomas is going to be as amazing as he was last year? He has never been a very good goalie… The Pens are also going to be better(regular season) then last year. They had an awful start to the year, and I just do not see that happening again.
But that is just my opinion…
by packpigskinfan25 on Sep 10, 2009 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions
so...
1 Pens(115)
2 Caps(106)
3 Bruins(100)
4 Canes(104)
I do not expect a lot out of the NorthEast… And I expect NJ to struggle.
by packpigskinfan25 on Sep 10, 2009 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I could easily see that order, however I doubt the Pens will get that many points. They are certainly capable, but Cup hangover + target on their backs will most likely prevent them getting above the 110 mark.
understandable
I wish I could save these predictions some how… there needs to be a “fantasy” rankings type program where you predict stuff at the start of the season, and the closest person wins!! =)
by packpigskinfan25 on Sep 11, 2009 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions
That is actually not a bad idea. Shocking to finds such intelligence from a Pack fan. :-)
by Carl Putnam on Sep 11, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
ha
I’ll let that slide till I have proof your a Tarhole…
If your a fan of any other team, I can respect that.
by packpigskinfan25 on Sep 12, 2009 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Definitely not a Tar Heel.
I was raised by a Pirate. Hence my disdain for State. Spent many a Fall Saturday in my youth watching games at Ficklen Stadium.
by Carl Putnam on Sep 16, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I can’t see the Pens getting that many points… they have two more games against Brodeur and Lundqvist than the other teams in the East. While they might win them, that’s not going to help their record any.
I’d put the Caps at about 109 or so with the top seed, only because the other 3 teams in the Southeast really aren’t as good. The division has only 2 playoff calibre teams, while there are 4 each in the Northeast (everyone but Toronto) and Atlantic (everyone but the Islanders).
My guess:
1) Caps 109
2) Pens 105
3) Bruins 102
4) Canes 100
5) Flyers 96
6) Rangers 94
7) Devils 93
8) Sabres 91
The Habs and Sens will fall just short, and just a step behind them should be Tampa. Atlanta will be better, Toronto will be ok, but look out below with Florida and the Islanders….
Let's go Caps!
by MikeL-Pivonka on Sep 11, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
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