Carolina Players on the Market: Who Goes and How Much Are They Worth?
by Bob Wage on Jan 20, 2010 7:00 AM EST
84 comments
The Carolina Hurricanes are currently riding a three game losing streak and are still sitting in last place in the East. The club's recent performances have only helped to confirm what most fans already believed, that the Canes will probably be playing golf early this April.
The good news is that the likely early elimination of the club actually puts Jim Rutherford in a position of strength. The Hurricanes have several desirable players who will be sought after by various Stanley Cup hopefuls out there. Who might go and how much could the Canes get in return? Let's take a quick look.
It's reasonable to assume that any player on the roster who is an unrestricted free agent next year, will be on the top of the "to trade" list. Rutherford can probably re-sign anyone he wants to bring back here in the offseason, so there is no reason to keep anyone on this list with trade value in Carolina until the very end of a fruitless year.
The players who meet this criteria are: Ray Whitney, Matt Cullen, Joe Corvo, Aaron Ward, Scott Walker, Stephane Yelle, and Niclas Wallin.
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Nic Wallin has a no trade clause and has used it before to nix a trade. It's unlikely he will be dealt.
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Stephane Yelle has little to no value on the open market. He is a low wage player who was not picked up for free on waivers earlier in the year. He could be put on waivers again though.
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Scott Walker has been battling injuries much of the season. He is recovering from shoulder surgery now and it is fairly unlikely that he will be looked upon as a commodity before the trade deadline. But stranger things have happened. If he is healthy, some team might take a flyer on him for a middle to late round draft pick.
Comparables:
2009: Daniel Carcillo from Phoenix to Philadelphia for Scottie Upshall and second round pick.
2008: Chris Simon from New York Islanders to Minnesota for sixth round pick.
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While Aaron Ward has had a tough year, he has vast playoff experience, is the type of player who can thrive in the "anything goes" setting of the playoffs, and has three championship rings to his credit. A change of scenery could help to turn his game around, but he might be tough to move because of his salary. (2.5 million)
Look for a creative deal regarding the defenseman, similar to the acquisition of Jussi Jokinen last year. Instead of picking up Jokinen for free on the waiver wire and absorbing all of his salary, the Canes sent some salary back to Tampa to soften the blow, (Josef Melichar and Wade Brookbank), and threw in a draft pick to boot. Ward could end up bringing in a draft pick or developing prospect, if the Canes bring back some salary on their end as well.
Comparable:
2008: Hal Gill from Toronto to Pittsburgh for second rounder and fifth rounder.
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Joe Corvo is another player recovering from surgery, although he has been skating and should be ready to go before the trade deadline. But will teams deduct from his value because of his injury? He's solid on defense, will help out any powerplay, and can play a ton of minutes if needed. Several teams should be interested if he proves he can play before the deadline and the return should be the equivalent of a second or third rounder.
Comparables:
2008: Brad Stuart from Los Angeles to Detroit for second rounder and fourth rounder.
2008: Marc-Andre Bergeron from New York Islanders to Anaheim for third rounder.
2009: Steve Eminger from Tampa Bay to Anaheim for Noah Welch and third rounder.
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Teams have already been inquiring about Matt Cullen and he would be a great addition for any roster. He brings a lot of successful playoff experience with him as well as a championship. The center is a good team guy and plays an all around game. Cullen should bring back a second rounder and maybe a decent prospect on top of that.
Comparables:
2009: Nik Antropov from Toronto to New York Rangers for second round pick and conditional pick.
2009: Dominic Moore from Toronto to Buffalo for second round pick.
2009: Ales Kotalik from Buffalo to Edmonton for second round pick.
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Ray Whitney could be the prize of all of this year's trade deadline acquisitions. He is Carolina's leading scorer and most consistent performer. Also a Stanley Cup Champion, he can be a leader on the ice and in the dressing room. Several teams will be chomping at the bit to add "The Wizard" to their lineup, but will he waive his no-trade clause? One would have to think that if the deal was right, he would. Why?
He is on the open market next year. Will he be worth more money after a successful playoff run, or after languishing for the rest of the year on a last place team? Also, if he plans to sign with the Canes next year, he would be doing the organization a huge solid and would only be away from home for a couple of months. Rutherford might make it worth his while later on to "take one for the team" now.
Whitney could very well bring back the return of a first rounder and possibly even more if teams start a bidding war for his services at the last minute.
Comparables:
2009: Bill Guerin from New York Islanders to Pittsburgh for conditional pick.
2007: Keith Tkachuk from St. Louis to Atlanta for Glen Metropolit, a first rounder, second rounder, and third rounder.
2009: Olli Jokinen and third round pick from Phoenix Florida to Calgary for Matthew Lombardi, Brandon Prust, and first round pick.
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Keep in mind the Canes could also trade players who have longer term contracts, but those are more difficult trades to make. More about those possibilities later.
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They need to throw a few others in the mix too, like Cole, and Samsonov. This teams needs a total makeover in the worst way. Sad, but so true.
by 3yrsnoplayoffs? on Jan 20, 2010 7:48 AM EST reply actions
Trading Players as Play-Off Rentals
I think Whitney could command at minimum a first round pick; if not a first round pick and a prospect. Cullen deserves a first round pick, but I am guessing he would be traded for a second round pick. Perhaps I am overly optismistic, but I think once LaRose shows he has returned to form, he might well command a second round pick or a prospect; but surely a playoff team could use his skills and would be willing to part with a third round pick. Aaron Ward should be traded to any team that would have him, for any pick or prospect. Samsonov is a player who perhaps could command a third round pick. Cole is quite interesting to consider. Given his history of injuries, it might well be difficult to obtain a second round pick and a prospect for him. At some point, the return on the trade for Cole is so low that it is not worth making. I would not trade Cole unless I received a power forward prospect in return. The Hurricanes already are under-sized and are not as team fast as they need to be. Trading size and speed for the hope of finding outside the farm system a large, fast forward is risky business.
Joe Corvo should command a second round pick and a prospect. He has playoff experience and can play big minutes if needed — assuming he is fully recovered from his injuries. Walker is unlikely to command more than a third round pick; but even so the trade should be made.
Yelle and Wallin have zero trade value for the reasons discussed in the article above.
Jim Rutherford finds himself being in the catbird seat. He has players other playoff teams really can use. He already has an impressive array of prospects in Albany that can step up to the NHL. Due to the atrocious year, as long as the team stays the crash course to bottom, Rutherford will be able to get at worst a top #2 or #3 pick — and can obtain a cornerstone player for 2010-2011 and beyond. IF he can get a first round pick for Whitney, he will be able to obtain at minimum one cornerstone player and a potential immediate impact player — say a Kabanov or Tellegin or McFarland to go with Hall or Seguin.
Jim Rutherford can use the phletora of picks to invest in longer term, but high upper end return prospects — such as freighttrain size power forwards comparable to Zach Budish but who may require a little more seasoning in the AHL than some other players. Rutherford might also be able to pry away from prospects from teams — perhaps a Peter Mueller from Phoenix, or Patrik Berglund from St. Louis.
There are really not that many gaps to fill and the news of the demise of the Hurricanes, I think, is premature and an over-reaction. The core of the team that made the Eastern Conference Finals is intact and is young. If Rutherford is able to seize the moment, and I am totally convinced he will, the Hurricanes can lay the foundation for an exciting, top six team. As Tom Petty sings, “Waiting is the hardest part.”
I for one am ready to see the train pull out of the station and for the trading season to begin in earnest — even though it means I have to totally revamp all the various iterations of lines I had drafted earlier.
I think Whitney could fetch a 1st rounder from a team that is thinking Cup. I think if he is traded to a bubble playoff team, then it is more likely that he would go for a 2nd or 3rd and a mid-level prospect. I think Cullen probably brings in a 2nd or 3rd or a prospect. Corvo would probably command a 2nd, if he shows signs of being healthy and effective. The rest of the guys, I just don’t know what another team would offer.
Whatever the case may be, the Canes need at least a few “ready” prospects. Injuries happen and draft picks from last year and this upcoming season will probably not be ready immediately.
On a side note – if LaRose plays like he did against Tampa. The Canes might consider keeping him or at least hold onto him and drive up his trade value.
JR’s vision of 5 or 6 core players and a lot of youth for next year implies that most if not all the UFAs will be dealt. The longer he waits, the better return he’ll get as the playoff picture starts to shake out and teams get a better handle on what pieces they think they need for a Cup run.
The Canes have 20 games left in the season after the trade deadline. That sounds like a good tryout period for the Rats and any players/prospects that come back in trades. Although this year’s entry draft is considered soft outside the top 10, I don’t think there’s any chance the Canes end up outside that number even if they go on a crazy run and forgo a top 3 pick.
One thing to consider; say 4 Rats make the Canes roster next season. The minor league team will need some restocking. I think JR would be smart to trade for prospects and picks. That will help with both next year’s Rat pack and give the Canes a bit of salary relief this year.
I would like to see Whitney and Cullen rented out and then re-signed for 1 or 2-year deals. We all love the Wizard, and I think Cullen still has some game and would be a good example for the youngsters. I would try to re-sign Corvo as well; a top4 blueline of Joni, Timmo, Corvo, and Carson could be solid next year.
It’s gonna be an interesting 6 weeks — effectively 4 weeks with the Olympic roster freeze. Let’s hope the Pimp Hand can regain some of his touch.
Bidding Wars for Whitney
It occurred to me that playoff teams not only might want Whitney for themselves; but also might want to avoid having another playoff contender obtain Whitney, thereby substantially strengthening an opponent. Whitney has the ability to make excellent scorers get the puck; and he knows how to win in big games. I think we will see a silent bidding war take place for the rental of Whitney — like the bidding war for Doug Weight in 2005-2006.
I really vacillate over Corvo and whether he will traded as a rental or traded outright with the idea Corvo will hit the open market. At minimum, I think Corvo will be traded as a rental. From a defensive talent standpoint, I agree with Gillimus that Pitkanen, Gleason, Corvo, and Carson make a very solid top four. Alberts has a role and fits well at Carolina.
Very interesting times here in Caniac Land.
Deja Vu
I seem to remember that we had a very similar conversation in a completely different context (after Cory’s article) last September. It’s interesting that it’s all about trading players for picks. I would rather have prospects (picks from 08 and 09) actually. Since by many accounts this is not a deep draft, seems like we might be better served with taking some 19-yr olds with a little more certainty of what you’re getting.
Does this happen often? Can we get first rounder from 08 or 09 that showed great potential in the WJC but already belongs to another franchise? Maybe one who’s tearing ’em up in the AHL like Tlusty?
GM and soothsayer of the Unofficial Hurricanes' fishtank.
Up this week: Introducing Sutter-fish.
Normally a team will not trade a promising prospect for a three month rental player, but there are exceptions to every rule. You’ll notice that most of the comps listed above contain draft picks.
Notable exception, when Atlanta traded Braydon Coburn to Philadelphia for Alexei Zhitnik. Atlanta regrets that deal.
Also, Chicago has a plethora of good prospects and salary cap problems. Another scenario could be that they send a high valued prospect back to the Canes (Cam Barker?) in return for Cullen and maybe the Canes send them back a draft pick.
There is no end to the possibilities, but usually draft picks are involved.
GM of CanesCountry.com
my only concern about any of this is if a rental like cullen or whitney gets sent to a cup contender who looks like they may repeat their run the next year (yeah, what must that be like?) they may get an offer they can’t refuse and stay there, killing our plans to bring them back here. at least with whitney, cullen i think doesn’t care one way or the other, seeing how he bolted for the NY cash first time around.
if we get any more fourth-line forwards in any trades i’m gonna puke. either package whit and cull for a substantive d-man or get picks we can use on defense.
My first impression from your list is that losing Corvo for what you suggest is too risky for the hole it would leave in our future roster.
Also kinda sad to see Walker lumped in with Carcillo and Simon. Scottie was so much more than that. Not saying you’re wrong trade-wise, just kinda sad people-wise.
I'm a big Canes fan, but...
I would hate to see Whitney not retiring as a Hurricane. :(
Ray Whitney for Carolina Hurricanes Captain 2010-2011 (after Rod Brind'Amour graciously retires ;-] )
+100
GM and soothsayer of the Unofficial Hurricanes' fishtank.
Up this week: Introducing Sutter-fish.
by hockeymomof2 on Jan 20, 2010 9:54 AM EST up reply actions
Whitney Retiring as a Hurricanes
I think there is about a 95% chance Whitney will retire as a Hurricane. I see him getting traded for the playoffs to a team such as Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Boston, San Jose, or even Washington. For Whitney’s sake it would be fantastic if he were on another Stanley Cup team; but for the Hurricanes, we would want whatever team that got him to lose in the first round of the playoffs.
People in the organization have been clear that they would like Whitney to stay a part of the Hurricanes organization in some capacity. Whitney, too, has been straight-forward about his hope that he could work something out to stay in the Hurricanes organization after his playing career is over. I think the fans overwhelmingly would like to see Whitney be a coach or in mangement. My prediction is that Whitney becomes a head coach of the Hurricanes someday.
I really hate talking about trades and hate the idea that our team is going to be sold for parts.
That being said, I agree with HM. I’d rather have an actual player (even if he’s only 19 years old) coming back for someone like Whitney or Cullen than a pick. Granted, the players coming the other way could be a bust in the same manner as a potential draft pick. But there is slightly less of a chance of that happening, at least in my mind. For someone like A.Ward I’m less picky I guess. I’d take almost whatever I could get for him.
No matter what happens, I think it’s going to be a tough few weeks for fans and players alike.
"This guy is as meat and potatoes as there is of a man."
Gleason for Emperor!
This time of year always makes me nervous. I hate losing players I get attached to, but that’s the sport. I’m fine with Ray leaving for the playoffs, but only if he promises to come back to us next season!! I really hope somebody sees playoff potential in AWard.
I think it would be funny if we traded all of our good guys and then started winning every game. Ok, maybe funny isn’t the right word.
as a fan
for me the 2010-11 season has started already, true us fans will have to deal with some ugly losses both on the ice and off, but we knew a month ago thisteam was going to be retooled for next year, lets watch and see what happens. The rats already proved they can play and if we can get on a run win a few and get some team chemistry, we could be a tough team to beat next year
Assuming Whitney waives his NTC and is dealt, whatever team lands him becomes my team in the post season.
THE QUEST FOR TAYLOR HALL...
by Caniac233 on Jan 20, 2010 10:27 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Agreed. Although it would be really hard to cheer for Pittsburgh and Washington.
"This guy is as meat and potatoes as there is of a man."
Gleason for Emperor!
Excellent input, guys.
My take on these comments is twofold.
First, while the Canes suck as a team, they have many good players. The rest of the league knows that and will come seeking our parts.
Second, contributors to this site use very good punctuation. For the most part.
Nice dangling participle…
THE QUEST FOR TAYLOR HALL...
by Caniac233 on Jan 20, 2010 10:34 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Eric Staal just named captain...
http://hurricanes.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=514280
Ray Whitney for Carolina Hurricanes Captain 2010-2011 (after Rod Brind'Amour graciously retires ;-] )
believe me he will texting me to rub it in momentarily
"That’s what happens when you suck" - Tim Gleason
Just a thread? Maybe there could be an actual fight. We could sell tickets and the proceeds could go to the Kids and Community Foundation. Hmmm….
"This guy is as meat and potatoes as there is of a man."
Gleason for Emperor!
Now that’s an idea, but let’s make it bigger… like a huge, tag team, cage match, fight off. Let all the disagreeing bloggers and commenters fight it out in person. Charge entrance and spectator fees.
Good way to work off all the pent up frustration and anger this season has caused.
I think I’ll email Doug Warf and see what he thinks.
Arg….I hate that for Brindy. I wish they would have waited till he retired. And on top of that, I personally think Gleason should have gotten it. And thats not even a bias point of view, just overall, he has more captain qualties. This will definitely be interesting to watch.
at least until the off-season, they couldn’t have waited?
"That’s what happens when you suck" - Tim Gleason
things can always get worse, believe me with the week I am having, i know
"That’s what happens when you suck" - Tim Gleason
Somewhat off topic, but all this talk of prospects has me wondering – what’s up with Mattias Lindstrom, our recent draft pick?
I’ve tried to find stats and they just don’t exist. My Swedish is a little rusty, but it doesn’t look like he’s played a game yet this year.
And a midseason captain change just might make things worse…
Member of Canes Country and the Cat Scratch Reader
Definitely the stake in the heart for him coming back next year. The timing of this is troubling to me at least. Not good to do this unless everyone consented to the idea.
Member of Canes Country and the Cat Scratch Reader
Rumor from the stands
Not that I’m one to make up crazy rumors, but a guy that sits in our section told us the rumor is Cole’s injury is most likely career ending. Reading between the lines from what Forslund has said, my guess is it’s his neck. Being close to someone that’s had 3 neck surgeries for broken/fused/scarred vertebrae these injuries have a weird way of flaring up. I hope for Cole’s sake it’s not career ending. We’ve heard he’s been skating at practices and ‘maybe close’, so I hope the rumor I heard is wrong.
Even if we get some young or proven guys back in a trade or high draft picks, I really have zero confidence that Paul Maurice will be able to develop them.
The fact is, he creates no chemistry at all on the team because of his constant line juggling, and that will never be good for new or young guys looking to make the Hurricanes a long term stay.
Also, while this still may have the “core” of the ECF team from last year, I point out to you that this team is in last place, and that “core” group of guys has done little to nothing to change that situation.
I look forward to JR getting some good things back in return for at least The Wizard and Cullen, and I hope Ray will come back for at least one more stint here. As for Cullen, not sure I’m sold on him coming back yet.
Until there is a coaching change here, which will not happen for another two years, I am sorry to say that we will be close to this same position next year. Maurice does not know how to develop talent: see Jiri Tlusty in Toronto when Maurice was coach.
Member of Canes Country and the Cat Scratch Reader
I agree, this team goes no where as long as Mo is coach.
by CanesFanFromLI on Jan 20, 2010 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
Olli Jokinen
Was traded from Phoenix to Calgary, not Florida.
I’d love for the Predators to take a look at Whitney.
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.
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Back on to the topic of the article
I think you’re prices are a bit low because the GMs believe this year to be a down year for the draft. I think teams will be more willing to move first round picks this year, similar to the 2007 deadline.
5 seconds left.
Do you believe in miracles?
YES!!
I don’t know about that. All the prospect and hockey web sites that I regularly visit have stated that this is an extremely strong first round, some say it could turn out to be the next 2002 draft which was one of the best first round draft classes in NHL history. The later rounds are not strong but the top 20-30 are very strong.
I don’t really know if you could compare Whitney to Olli Jokinen. Jokinen is a much bigger name in the NHL with a bigger reputation. I think Whitney is more comparable to Bill Guerin whom was traded for a 3rd round draft pick. Though I do think he will be one of the premier rentals and there will be multiple teams interested, I think JR will likely do what he does best and try to scratch out a diamond in the rough in an underperforming top-prospect. I think he might be able to get 1st rounder from someone like Pitt/Washington, however with out draft history (Such as taking Phillipe Paradis last year), I’d much rather take a prospect.
Great stuff Bob … a couple things worth adding:
• The Carcillo deal was a salary dump. The Flyers couldn’t afford Upshall.
• Jokinen didn’t have an expiring deal, like Whitney. I think the Canes acquisition of Recchi (second-rounder) is also a good comparable, tho Whitney is more a scorer and could demand more.
• The Brad Stuart comparison is great. Yes, diff. player from Corvo, but I’d say of comparable value. The one thing that may make him a real hot commodity is that he’s a right-handed shot on the power play.
Players on the block ?
This fan will just sit back, and watch what will happen when it happens and just hope for the best !
If you think you can't, you won't !
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