For the Staal Lovers & Haters
by PackPride17 on Jan 24, 2010 4:05 PM EST
23 comments
Much as been said of Eric Staal this season; some say he’s not an elite player, some say he is, some say he is overpaid, and some say player X would be a better fit for this team. What I have tried to do is present a statistical analysis/comparison of Staal and other “top” players in the league. We all know stats don’t tell the whole story, but they are somewhat useful in comparing players. All of this information is based on games through Saturday, January 23rd. Please take a look and let me know what you think. (I will qualify my post by saying that I am one of those considered a “Staal lover.")
First, let’s take a look at the Canes themselves. I think we all can say that Staal is not having one of his better seasons. He started off extremely slow (maybe due to injury) and missed 12 games due to injury and personal reasons. Still though, he is tied for 1st on this team in points, tied for 2nd in goals, 2nd in assists, and 1st in PPG. That’s not bad, but this is the 2nd lowest scoring team in the league and the Canes also own the worst overall record. Here is a list of the Canes top statistical performers this season.
|
Players |
Games Played |
Points |
Goals |
Assists |
PPG |
|
Staal |
38 |
37 |
14 |
23 |
0.97 |
|
Whitney |
48 |
37 |
15 |
22 |
0.77 |
|
Jokinen |
49 |
34 |
14 |
20 |
0.69 |
|
Cullen |
50 |
30 |
9 |
21 |
0.60 |
|
Pitkanen |
41 |
26 |
2 |
24 |
0.63 |
|
Ruutu |
39 |
25 |
11 |
14 |
0.64 |
|
Sutter |
41 |
19 |
11 |
8 |
0.46 |
As mentioned above, the Canes are the 2nd lowest scoring team in the league and own the worst overall record. Overall, the Canes average 2.48 GPG. With Staal in the lineup, they average 2.55 GPG. Without him in the lineup, they average 2.25 GPG. Their overall record is 15-28-7, a 30% win percentage. With Staal in the lineup, they are 11-22-5, a 28.9% win percentage. Without Staal, they are 4-6-2, a 33.3% win percentage. But since Staal’s return from injury, they are 9-14-2, a 36% win percentage. So, they tend to score a few more goals with him in their lineup, but not many more. They also seem to win a little more without him and they win more with him since returning from injury. All in all, there is not much difference in goal production or winning with or without Staal in the lineup, the Canes just stink.
Last, lets take a look at the NHL. Staal is currently ranked 61st in the league in points, 68th in goals, 64th in assists, and 22nd in PPG. It should be noted that Staal has played the 2nd lowest number of games of any player in the top 100 in points (Daniel Sedin is the only one to play fewer). It should also be noted that Staal is on pace to have his lowest goal production and points production since his rookie year. He has been in the top 15 in goals in 3 of the last 4 seasons. To get a better analysis; the list below is the top 30 players in PPG production this season (minimum of 25 games played). Also included is % of TGS (team’s goals scored). This is based on the players contributions to the goals scored by his team in games he played (example: if Staal had 1 assist and the Canes scored 4 goals, he would have a 25% TGS). Another thing included is the player’s salary for this season. Cap hit is important, but actual salary should help determine if the player is living up to their contract (lowest salary is ranked 1st). The list is alphabetically.
|
Players |
PPG |
Ranking |
%TGS |
Ranking |
Salary |
Ranking |
Avg Ranking |
|
Alfredsson |
0.95 |
25 |
33.9% |
19 |
7m |
20 |
21.3 |
|
Backstrom, N |
1.10 |
11 |
29.3% |
28 |
850k |
1 |
13.3 |
|
Connolly |
0.94 |
26 |
33.3% |
23 |
4.5m |
9 |
19.3 |
|
Crosby |
1.25 |
5 |
40.3% |
8 |
9m |
27 |
13.3 |
|
Eriksson, L |
0.96 |
23 |
33.8% |
20 |
1.7m |
5 |
16 |
|
Gaborik |
1.22 |
7 |
46.9% |
1 |
7.5m |
23 |
10.3 |
|
Getzlaf |
1.02 |
16 |
36.3% |
14 |
5.13m |
12 |
14 |
|
Green, M |
1.02 |
16 |
28.1% |
29 |
5m |
10 |
18.3 |
|
Heatley |
1.06 |
15 |
32.2% |
25 |
8m |
26 |
22 |
|
Kane |
1.10 |
11 |
34.5% |
18 |
875k |
3 |
10.7 |
|
Kopitar |
0.98 |
20 |
34.7% |
17 |
6m |
13 |
16.7 |
|
Kovalchuk |
1.24 |
6 |
42.1% |
5 |
7.5m |
23 |
11.3 |
|
Lecavalier |
0.98 |
20 |
38.5% |
12 |
10m |
30 |
20.7 |
|
Malkin |
1.11 |
10 |
33.6% |
22 |
9m |
27 |
19.7 |
|
Marleau |
1.08 |
13 |
32.8% |
24 |
6.3m |
17 |
18 |
|
Nash |
0.91 |
29 |
35.0% |
16 |
7m |
20 |
21.7 |
|
Ovechkin |
1.63 |
1 |
45.2% |
2 |
9m |
27 |
10 |
|
Parise |
1.02 |
16 |
38.6% |
10 |
3m |
7 |
11 |
|
Perry, C |
0.94 |
26 |
33.8% |
21 |
6.5m |
18 |
21.7 |
|
Plekanec |
0.96 |
23 |
36.0% |
15 |
2.75m |
6 |
14.7 |
|
Richards, B |
1.18 |
8 |
41.4% |
6 |
7.8m |
25 |
13 |
|
Sedin, D |
1.39 |
3 |
40.7% |
7 |
6.1m |
15 |
8.3 |
|
Sedin, H |
1.45 |
2 |
44.8% |
3 |
6.1m |
15 |
6.7 |
|
Semin |
1.17 |
9 |
29.7% |
27 |
5m |
10 |
15.3 |
|
St. Louis |
1.08 |
13 |
42.3% |
4 |
4m |
8 |
8.3 |
|
Staal, E |
0.97 |
22 |
38.1% |
13 |
6m |
13 |
16 |
|
Stamkos |
1.02 |
16 |
40.0% |
9 |
875k |
3 |
9.3 |
|
Stastny |
0.92 |
28 |
31.9% |
26 |
6.5m |
19 |
24.3 |
|
Thornton |
1.26 |
4 |
38.5% |
11 |
7.2m |
22 |
12.3 |
|
Toews |
0.91 |
29 |
27.5% |
30 |
850k |
1 |
20 |
I know this is a lot of information to digest. But basically, my analyses suggest that Staal is one of the top 25 players in the league this season (yes, even this season). It also suggests that the Sedins’, St. Louis, Stamkos, and Ovechkin are the best values of these 30 players. Who knows if this is anywhere close to being right, but I think it’s interesting.
Also consider that since Staal has come back from injury, he has 11 goals, 21 assists for 32 points in 25 games. That’s 1.28 PPG and would have him 4th in the league in that category. That would also take his average ranking to (10), which is the same as Ovechkin. In conclusion, I think Staal still needs to perform more consistently and show better effort from game to game, but I do believe that he is one of the top 20 players in the league and has the potential to be a top 10 player. You may determine that Staal is not worth what he making, just take a look and let me know what your opinion is.
0 recs |
23 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
Thanks for taking the time to lay this info out. I to think Staal is one of the 20 best players in the league, with a legitimate shot at top ten status.
The contracts of Backs, Toews will be up soon, and they will be looking for a major payday. I believe Stamkos has a couple years left on his entry-level deal, but he may also become one of the top ten players in this league.
"He has all the virtues I dislike, and none of the vices I admire." -Sir Winston Churchill
Wow and I thought I crunched some numbers today! Good stuff here Empty Net PackPride.
Let me see if I can get this phrased the way I want it: First off, I don’t consider myself a Staal hater (I don’t actually hate anyone on this team. Sean Avery-now him I hate). I consider myself a Staal criticizer and perhaps that comes out too strong sometimes. I’d also like to say for the record that I formed my opinion of Staal based on more than just this season.
Just as a quick observation: what stood out for me was comparing Staal to Kovalchuk. (Kovalchuk has 1 year on Staal in terms of age and 2 seasons on him.) Both play on teams where the average natural talent level is far below theirs and are forced to shoulder much of the offensive production for their team. Kovalchuk’s numbers are better than Staal’s in almost every year they’ve both been in the league (with Kovalchuk playing fewer games in those years than Staal) despite Atlanta finishing behind Carolina in most of those years. Not trying to make a point here either way, just pointing out something I found interesting.
As far as being worth the money he gets paid (which increases as his contract goes on), I will have to see. I agree with you that Staal is a top 20 player as far as statistics go (and statistics don’t tell the whole story). But I also think he could be so much more than that if he played with consistency and had the same “take no prisoners” attitude in game #1 of the season as he seems to have in game 7 of a playoff round. That’s what I would like to see from him; not 5 point nights every night, but the same snarl and attitude.
"This guy is as meat and potatoes as there is of a man."
Gleason for Emperor!
Thanks, this was a little more time consuming than I originally thought.
In regards to Kovalchuk, I think he is the better player since both have been in the league. I don’t know if you read my post from this summer “Top 10 Players in the SE Division,” but I had OV #1, Kovalchuk #2, Staal #3, Vinny #4 and Backstrom #5 (I think). Who knows if Staal will become a better player than Ilya, but I agree right now it is Kovalchuk.
Last, I agree completely that Staal needs to be more consistent game in and game out – both in production and effort. If he can, I really think he could be a top 6 or 7 player in this league.
by PackPride17 on Jan 24, 2010 4:57 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Actually, the biggest thing to me is that Staal is producing pretty well for a “down” year. If you just take his numbers since coming back from injury, he is producing with the like of Crosby, Kovalchuk, and Thornton – which so many here complain about that he should.
by PackPride17 on Jan 24, 2010 5:09 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
+4,0000,00000,0000
I absolutely agree with what CG says. I am not a Staal hater, just not a convinced believer. He is powerful, dominant, a scorer and a defender. But all of those things are only done some times. 5 points a night would be great but not gonna happen. Hustle, “snarl” and attitude are something that is possible every night. I went to the game tonight ( Boston) spent alot of time observing Staal. There were times when he was without a doubt the best player out there, then just when I was starting to believe I watched shifts of what looked like amazing laziness, confusion and what almost looked like boredom. It is those shifts that I just do not understand. I hope that his switch to Captain is exactly the life giving injection he needs, and this team needs. So far I believe it is. I just want to add, Brandon Sutter IMHO is the future of the Carolina Hurricanes…lock this guy to a long term contract as soon as possible!
Obviously Kovalchuk’s a great goal scorer. But I ’d rather build a team with all-around guys not on your list like P.Datsyuk and J.Iginla (and, yes, E.Staal)
Guys like Kovalchuk are for winning Fantasy Leagues. Not the Stanley Cup.
I found the comparative salary list very interesting. Thanks for sharing.
Normally Datsyuk and Iginla would be on this list, but they are having down years, and I just took info from this season.
by PackPride17 on Jan 24, 2010 8:52 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Here’s a little more details of some players Staal is often compared with. These are their stats over their past 26 games.
Staal – 12g, 21a, 33p
Crosby – 20g, 19a, 39p
Malkin – 9g, 17a, 26p
Kovalchuk – 15g, 16a, 31p
Ovechkin – 17g, 28a, 45p
Parise – 8g, 13a, 21p
Lecavalier – 8g, 21a, 29p
Heatley – 12g, 14a, 26p
Getzlaf – 9g, 14a, 23p
by PackPride17 on Jan 24, 2010 11:04 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Gotta throw my two cents in here.
So, Staal is not a snarl kind of guy. He is natural way of being off the ice is calm and quiet. Inside he seems to have a burning desire to succeed. He is not a player that is consistently going to bang guys or make the critical hit. He is more cerebral than that. He is thinking the game to be in position to get those points. Sure sometimes someone will get under his skin and he gets pissed off and takes the body. This is his strength. Since he doesn’t slam his body around, he will last a long time in this league. He hits when it is called for. The guy can simply dominate a game from start to finish. When we see performances like that, it is because of what he is doing and because of the other team’s performance. If a team lets him skate, he is a devistating player. If they are all over him, he is less productive but the rest of the guys can get chances. No matter what, he is elite, he is tough, he is your Captain. He represents everything that is Canes hockey.
My second point is about the injury early in the season. He was hurt early on … maybe second game. He played with that injury as long as he could. Like a champion should. He is obviously better now and that is the guy that we are seeing. Don’t forget, we don’t hear about the nagging injuries that happen to those guys. His injury(maybe a rib), was not going to heal without time off. Anyone who has broken a rib or separated a shoulder knows how painful it is. I cannot imagine playing with that type of injury at all.
And finally, This is the Captain of the future and now. While Roddy says “I have been caught on the ice at the end of a shift a lot just when the other team scores…..that is why my +/- is so bad…..”(I paraphrase). Eric Staal says we can do better, I can do better….he holds himself accountable. That is the guy that I want moving into the future. The young guys will go to war with him anytime any day. Just wait until the pieces come together again. Eric Staal = Bright Future for Canes.
Off the soapbox Ken
Couldn't have said it better myself Ken!
"He has all the virtues I dislike, and none of the vices I admire." -Sir Winston Churchill
So, Staal is not a snarl kind of guy. He is natural way of being off the ice is calm and quiet.
Perhaps “snarl” was the wrong way to phrase my thought. You’re right, he’s not that kind of player. When I typed “snarl” I meant more of a general attitude that “this is his game and that he won’t be denied by anyone”. And yes, you’re right as well that he can only work with what the other team gives him. But some nights, he forces them to give him more. That’s what I’d like to see more often.
"This guy is as meat and potatoes as there is of a man."
Gleason for Emperor!
As far as Kovalchuck vsr Staal goes, tats are misleading. Contributions go well beyond what you can find on a scoresheet. The last time I checked Kovy has been in the league a long time, and has had some real all star linemates during that time (to include Marian Hossa, Danny Heatley, and Marc Savard to name 3). Yet in his time he has made the post season once, and once there failed to muster a single win.
Couple that with the fact that they play very different roles on their teams. Kovy and backcheck are two words you rarely hear together. I am not saying Staal is the epitome of two way players, but he can be counted on 10 tens more than Kovy in his own end. This is a big deal. If you have a guy who is always cheating towards the offensive side of the puck he is gonna to cash in with more goals, but he is also forsaking the defensive efforts of his teammates.
The Kovy to Staal comparison is a dubious one at best.
I never said one was better than the other. I never said I would rather have one over the other. I was just pointing out something that stuck out to me (I even said I wasn’t making a point there either way just thinking out loud).
"This guy is as meat and potatoes as there is of a man."
Gleason for Emperor!
I know CG, just trying to give a different perspective.
by wylde4canes on Jan 25, 2010 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
No worries, it was not my intent to
a: put words in your mouth
b: words in your fingers
c: fingers in your mouth
If it seemed like any of the above, i apologize! Especially if it was the last one.
=)
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Latest Puck Daddy - NHL from Yahoo! Sports
- In which former NHL coach Ken Hitchcock foils a shoplifter
- Montreal's Price talks new 2-year contract, expectations post-Halak
- Donald Fehr aware of Kovalchuk drama, mum on everything else
- Puck Headlines: Savard's agent rants on Bettman; Halak in Montreal
- Boudreau, Crawford placed on the coaching hot seat
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
