Ten-Game Stretch Provides Insight Into How The Canes Win
by Cory Lavalette on Jan 30, 2010 6:00 AM EST
68 comments
Six wins and four losses may not seem like a great stretch of games, but over the course of the season that works out to 98.4 points — enough to likely earn a spot among the Eastern Conference's top eight. Unfortunately for the Carolina Hurricanes, the recent 6-4 run was preceded by just 12 wins in the team's first 43 games. So while the recent spurt of good play is encouraging, it is probably too little, too late for the Canes to make a push for the postseason.
But with several young players in the lineup, learning how to win is not all bad, even if it costs the Canes the chance to select in the top three in this summer's Entry Draft. There are several factors contributing to Carolina's improved play, be it offense, defense, goaltending or special teams. Let's look at the trends for the past 10 games.
- Much has been made of Eric Staal's play since becoming Carolina's captain. There's definitely some truth in it. Staal now finds himself on a point-per-game pace with 42 in 41 games. But while his past five since his captaincy was announced have been stellar (eight goals plus an assist), he was still averaging a more than a point a night the previous five (two goals, four assists). Combined, that's 10 goals (of his 18 on the year) and five assists in just the past 10. So base it on his new-found leadership position, move back to center, improved health or new linemates: no matter how you slice it, Staal has been a difference-maker for Carolina.
- Speaking of his linemates, both Ray Whitney and Jussi Jokinen have also kept a point-per-game pace over the past 10 games. Whitney has three goals and eights assists in that stretch (plus he had two more goals just 11 games ago) and Jokinen is 5-7-12. Having your top line players all producing at that clip is not unheard of (see San Jose this season), but is no doubt indicative of how good the first line has been.
- Let's not forget defenseman Joni Pitkanen either. He's also registered 10 assists in as many games, plus contributed to a defense that's much improved since the calendar has flipped to 2010. Led by Pitkanen, the defense has managed two points a night (20 total) during the recent stretch. Last season the D — perhaps the best point-producing backend since the team moved to Raleigh — registered 172 points, just slightly better than the current pace.
- Speaking of that defense, it's allowed just 2.3 goals a game during this run, whereas the team is scoring 3.5 a night. Compare that to the entire season: even with the recent improved play, the team is still averaging just 2.6 goals a game while allowing 3.21.
- A big part of that, of course, is goalie Cam Ward. How good has Ward been? He's earned the decision in all 10 games, and in the six wins his save percentage has been at least .941, with four better than .960. Even when figured with the four losses, Ward's save percentage is .938 in the last 10.
- Perhaps most importantly, Carolina's special teams have been much improved in both ends of the ice. The Hurricanes have converted 11 of 34 power play chances (32.4 percent, including seven games out of 10 with at least one) and stopped 31 of 36 (86.1 percent) on the penalty kill. Compare that to an 18.1 percent season success rate with the man advantage and 79.4 percent penalty kill — and keep in mind both numbers benefit from the recent surge in special teams — and you can see why it's been so crucial to the improved play.
- While the top guns have fueled the offensive surge, it's important not to discount the secondary scoring the team has received. Sergei Samsonov came back from injury and has three goals and an assist since returning six games ago. Matt Cullen continues to boost his trade value, registering eight points (two goals, six assists) in the past 10 games — which has him on a pace for 52 points that would be the most of his NHL career (he had 49 twice before with the Canes). Rod Brind'Amour, Brandon Sutter, Tom Kostopoulos, Patrick Dwyer and Chad LaRose have all scored twice — good for an average of one a game — during the run.
Are all things cured with the Hurricanes? No, certainly not. The trade deadline will lead to the departure of several players, potentially including some key cogs like Whitney and Cullen. Yes, Erik Cole, Tuomo Ruutu and Joe Corvo should all return from injury soon, but their return coupled with the deadline threatens to ruin the chemistry that has been built.
But for now, there's plenty to like about the Carolina Hurricanes.
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I heard an interview with Staal on 99.9 and he talked about how his points tend to come in bunches and during those stretches he makes sure to throw everything at the net as evident by his goal on Lundqvist. The fact that he is admitting that he is more or less a streaky player at this point in his career seems to point to a more mature self analysis. With that attitude, hopefully he can work on his consistency just as Cam has.
Cory?
U were burning the midnight oil on this one. Hope u got enough to zzzzzs to be able to play in the snow with ur family today!
Great points, especially the secondary scoring part
by wylde4canes on Jan 30, 2010 8:13 AM EST via mobile reply actions
na … I did it yesterday then set it to post this a.m. so all our posts wouldn’t be bunched up. We like to keep it flowing for all of you.
by Cory Lavalette on Jan 30, 2010 9:39 PM EST up reply actions
I’ve have said it and others here as well – Staal is the key to the Hurricanes success. I mentioned before that Staal is “the straw that stirs the drink.” When he is on, he is dangerous and other teams must focus on him. This allows other Canes a little extra space which results in better play. With Staal’s confidence up, it seems to transfer to other members of the team. While Staal is the “straw,” Cam is the “glass.” Without him there is no Hurricane drink. He is the one that holds everything together. When he is on, the defense looks better and the Canes are in almost every game.
The Canes success is very dependent on these two players. When they lead the way, the others follow and everybody gets to the finish line.
by PackPride17 on Jan 30, 2010 8:25 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Off topic (sorry)
Anyone heard if they still plan to play tonight? They said on TV they plan to regardless, but on the radio, they said we needed to check the web site. I’m a yankee transplant, so this lil bit of snow and ice won’t keep me off the roads. Bill leave a lot earlier.
Bill leave a lot earlier.
where’s Bill going. The game should be on. I have heard nothing to the contrary. I would leave early with Bill.
THE QUEST FOR TAYLOR HALL...or maybe Seguin..possibly Fowler...from 30th to the top!!! OR MAYBE 27TH OR SO....
They will leave a lot earlier…..
And the reason southerners stay off the road is because our roads seem to accumulated ice during an ICE storm…. and we actually enjoy LIVING in the south…. and in order to LIVE in the south we must not DIE by trying to drive on a sheet of ice…..
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Jan 30, 2010 9:35 AM EST up reply actions
when you say ‘stay off the road’, do you mean when Southerners drive in this weather, they end up in the roadside ditch? :)
You see… the general perception by the Northerner is that the southerner is an idiot…. Because they can’t drive on the ice….
The problem is that in the north the northerners would not be able to drive on the ice except for the fact that their government hires union workers to clear the roadways… otherwise nothing would ever get done because the weather up north is always crappy…. (another reason why so many of people from up there come down here)
Down here we don’t mind taking a day off for the icy conditions because it only happens once… maybe twice every year or two….
I say that we are smarter for not trying to drive in the shit…. you can go out and wreck your car if you want…. but I’ve got TV and beer and plenty of stuff to do at my house…. The Ice will melt tomorrow….
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Jan 30, 2010 10:16 AM EST up reply actions
Didn’t know you were overly sensitive to the typical north/ south banter, no offense was intended. No one can drive on ice…. Well except the zamboni driver.
by Killswitch on Jan 30, 2010 10:45 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I work w/ Canadians… I’m a little sensitive sometimes….. :-) Sorry!
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Jan 30, 2010 11:16 AM EST up reply actions
I wonder if the Zamboni driver can come pick me up so I can make it to the game tonight…. LOL…
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Jan 30, 2010 11:16 AM EST up reply actions
I grew up in the Midwest — Northerners may know a little bit more about how to drive on snow, but there’s plenty of bad driving in Iowa when it snows. It’s just that up there, they have snow plows and salt/sand trucks and enough of them to clear roads pretty quickly. And tires on everyone’s cars that are better for snow conditions. When it snows down here, it’s funny that everyone goes nuts, but it’s also probably good, because we just don’t have the infrastructure to deal with making the roads clear enough for everyone to run out and drive around in it!
I remember when my dad put snow tires on the car every November – I grew up in NJ. Do they still do that? And many places in the mountains require chains added to that, with heavy snow.
GM and soothsayer of the Unofficial Hurricanes' fishtank.
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by hockeymomof2 on Jan 30, 2010 11:05 AM EST up reply actions
I grew up in the midwest here.
The big difference is, in the midwest, we get snow.
Here, it’s ICE, and it definitely is harder to drive on. Compound that with less experience driving in any wintry weather, and it’s a recipe for danger.
by Raccoon Fink on Jan 30, 2010 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
I worked at ski resort in Vermont one winter long ago. And I can tell you that No One can drive on ice safely. Folks around here don’t seem to wanna spend a heap a tax money on snow removal equipment that they use about once a year. It’ll melt in a few.
by drifterscape on Jan 30, 2010 10:17 AM EST up reply actions
No doubt… Why spend the tax money on snow removal equipment when it snows once or twice every year or two…. the state already waste too much money…..
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Jan 30, 2010 10:19 AM EST up reply actions
Here’s your “official” response.
nhl_canes: Great hockey weather in the Triangle. For those concerned, tonight’s game will proceed as scheduled.
Link to RBC Center site.
Sees the world through ruuu-colored glasses...
Sisu
The Blackhawks came to town yesterday ahead of the storm…. and the Linesmen stayed in town from Thursday nights game….
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Jan 30, 2010 10:17 AM EST up reply actions
But Forslund had it arranged that he would do the call over the TV from home. Thought that was an interesting decision – especially since he was saying this early Friday morning.
Hopefully the worst is over and he can be there live. Better yet – Bob or Cory – will you be there? Maybe you can take over for him and enjoy some buddy time with Tripp?
GM and soothsayer of the Unofficial Hurricanes' fishtank.
Up this week: Introducing Sutter-fish.
by hockeymomof2 on Jan 30, 2010 10:28 AM EST up reply actions
I think John said he would be there, that he did not like calling games from his home. He might of been joking because its not that bad out.
I'm Jim Rutherfords assitant and decision maker. -Canescup
Apparently he called a game for Versus that was played in Europe the same way. He pointed out that it’s much harder because you can’t see the entire ice and see what plays are developing plus you can’t see the refs calling penalties off-camera. etc. If you listen to his talk on 620 the buzz yesterday morning they discuss it.
No mention of where Tripp would be.
GM and soothsayer of the Unofficial Hurricanes' fishtank.
Up this week: Introducing Sutter-fish.
by hockeymomof2 on Jan 30, 2010 11:01 AM EST up reply actions
Whoever does end up going to the game tonight, be safe. Also, don’t drink to much. We don’t need any dead or injuried Caniacs.
by PackPride17 on Jan 30, 2010 10:05 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Ooooohhhhh…. wait…. I got this….
Since most of them are from THE NORTH they can drink and drive in snow and ice and death can not touch them…..
isn’t that special…..
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Jan 30, 2010 10:18 AM EST up reply actions
I’m not really sure how to take that reply. I’m really just asking that anybody that goes to game be careful. The roads will be in bad condition and even a drink or two could effect the abilities to drive in these conditions.
by PackPride17 on Jan 30, 2010 10:27 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Funny, I think it’s time for your nap
by Killswitch on Jan 30, 2010 10:53 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Sorry… I was a little worked up at the moment…..
I can be a ’lil grumpy sometimes anyway…. my bad….
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Jan 30, 2010 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
Meanwhile, back to the story....
I was interested on the defensive production numbers Cory mentioned.
Led by Pitkanen, the defense has managed two points a night (20 total) during the recent stretch. Last season the D — perhaps the best point-producing backend since the team moved to Raleigh — registered 172 points, just slightly better than the current pace.
Other than Pitkanen, that’s hard to believe they’re putting numbers up at that pace without Corvo. Last year we had Seids, Babchuk, Pits and Corvo all shooting big from the blueline.
This is coming from: Carson, Gleason, Wallin, Ward, and Alberts? Who’d a thunk it?
GM and soothsayer of the Unofficial Hurricanes' fishtank.
Up this week: Introducing Sutter-fish.
The more I thing about it, that’s one of the most encouraging things I’ve read. Is it just because we’ve gotten the lead so the Dmen aren’t under such pressure to protect our net and can have a broader vision of opportunities on the ice (rather than threats?) There have been some sweet passes too, not just the big boomers and then the tip/rebound goal.
It’s all good.
GM and soothsayer of the Unofficial Hurricanes' fishtank.
Up this week: Introducing Sutter-fish.
by hockeymomof2 on Jan 30, 2010 10:23 AM EST up reply actions
I just read a rumor coming from Chicago. Supposedly the Hawks have interest in Wallin and have a conversation with JR. It sounds like JR wanted Barker, Versteeg, or Brouwer and Chicago wanted one of our prospects included. According to the writer, the deal has fallen through, but its not dead.
Again, this is a rumor – so take it for what it is.
by PackPride17 on Jan 30, 2010 10:56 AM EST via mobile reply actions
It seems like IF we were to trade Wallin (he has used his no-trade clause in the past to block trades) we would probably only get draft picks in return for him….
I really like Wallin… which is not a popular opinion on this web site… So I’d hate to see him go… but on the other hand…. this could very well be his last season in the NHL… so we may as well get something in return for him….
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Jan 30, 2010 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
The rumor is on hockeybuzz.com. John Jaekel is a blogger for the Blackhawks, he’s got the story there.
Let the new era of Hurricanes hockey.... begin!
by 3yrsnoplayoffs? on Jan 30, 2010 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
Hurricanes Prospects -- the True Untouchables; and thoughts on Wallin
In addition to the seven players I personally am totally convinced are untouchables, I am equally convinced for a number of reasons, Jim Rutherford views the prospects in Albany as untouchable. I am increasingly reading about other teams’ GMs asking to have Jim Rutherford sweeten a deal by throwing in an Albany Rat.
My take is that Jim Rutherford realizes the enormous potential of the prospects as a group and the value they represent to the organization. Not much truly shocks me about NHL trades, but I would be shocked if Wallin waives his NTC. I think Wallin would prefer Sweden to another NHL team. The sad thing is that the way Wallin is playing now, some of his harshest critics (as a player not as a person or teammate) would be supporters of his.
Wallin has his merits and when he plays within his limitations, he can help a team. When he goes into his slow mental funks, he is a significant problem. I can’t tell whether Wallin and Aaron Ward suddenly had a revelation about the way they needed to play within the Maurice/Francis/Rowe system or whether there was something else going on. Aaron Ward is still a master of disaster; but Wallin over the last ten games or so has been solid.
I don’t believe the kids are untouchable. JR will be reluctant to trade them, but if the right deal(s) come along – 1 or more could be moved. As noted many times, we have an abundance of left wingers in the organization. If a top 4 defenseman comes up, I could see JR trading Bowman (I actually think Bowman could be better overall than Boychuk). If by chance we select Taylor Hall, that will be one more LW. Again, if the right deal comes along, anything is possible.
Also, AWard is “The Master of the Ice Disaster” or “The Minister of Defensive Ineptitude.” :)
by PackPride17 on Jan 30, 2010 2:31 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Wallin over the last ten games or so has been solid.
Took a while to pick my jaw up off the floor, ADog. Nice to hear that.
(The Islanders commentators had good things to say about Wallin when they called the game Thursday: He would be a great addition of Dcorps’ depth for a cup-contender with his strong physical play and veteran playoff experience – it was an interesting moment. They were right.)
GM and soothsayer of the Unofficial Hurricanes' fishtank.
Up this week: Introducing Sutter-fish.
by hockeymomof2 on Jan 30, 2010 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
Wallin
Just trying my best to be objective. I continue to feel that Wallin will not return next year; and I am even more convinced that he has struggled through approximately 30 games to fit his desired style of play into the Maurice/Francis/Rowe system. The way he is playing now, Wallin could play at Carolina as a third pairing; but to do so, he would have to take a significant pay cut — perhaps $1,200,000.00 on one year deals.
Building on the theme of this story:
Canes just tweeted this
Cam Ward will start for the Hurricanes tonight against @NHLBlackhawks. Ward has a 2.13 gaa and .934 save percentage in the last 16 games.
Those are some fine numbers. No complaints here.
GM and soothsayer of the Unofficial Hurricanes' fishtank.
Up this week: Introducing Sutter-fish.
To me, this is why any ideas about tanking ‘on purpose’ to get a draft pick are silly (I know that nobody here is actually advocating this, but I’ve heard this accusation leveled against other teams, like the Pens).
And this is why we should be unequivocally happy that they’re doing so well now. Ward is a young goalie who’s still building his reputation. If he has a disastrous season from wire to wire, it will impact his career in so many ways—his overall stats, his confidence, how others estimate him, his legacy basically.
And the same goes for all the skaters as well. Turning this season around, even just a little, will have lasting benefits for our ‘untouchables’, which may not be measurable against the value of a number 1 pick vs. a number 4 pick.
If Legace got more starts then he could have better trade value at the deadline…..
not that I think he would be traded…. but it is possible…..
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Jan 30, 2010 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
Cam's numbers over the past 10 games
Your observation is correct, hockeymomof2, Cam’s 2.13 GAA and 0.934 SV% are some fine numbers indeed.
Only 2 NHL goalies (Neimi/CHI @ 1.99 and Miller/BUF @ 2.03) have lower Goals Against Allowed than Cam’s 2.13 GAA.
And, only Miller can top him for Save Percentage (0.935 vs. 0.934).
So, using Miller’s contract ($6.25M/yr until ‘14) as a model for Cam’s contract extension through the same season is holding up…now that Cam (and the defense) are beginning to hit on all cylinders, that is.
Big difference is that Miller’s contract carries that same $6.25M/yr cap hit, whereas by extending Cam’s lower RFA contract, the cap hit works out to only be $2.667M/yr.
There’s a reason JR’s been named GM of the Year…twice.
Those are numbers you just can’t ignore. And it’s with the same so-called “lousy” D we’ve had all year. Either that or Brett Carson is a far more promising asset than any of us realized.
GM and soothsayer of the Unofficial Hurricanes' fishtank.
Up this week: Introducing Sutter-fish.
by hockeymomof2 on Jan 30, 2010 3:08 PM EST up reply actions
Another update on today’s activities:
RALEIGH, NC—Davin Olsen, Vice President and General Manager of the RBC Center, today announced the following changes for today’s events at the RBC Center due to the winter weather in the Triangle:
Both the North Carolina State men’s basketball game against North Carolina Central at 2 p.m., as well as the Carolina Hurricanes’ hockey game against the Chicago Blackhawks at 7 p.m., will be played as scheduled.
Parking fees will be suspended for both games.
Fans who cannot attend tonight’s Hurricanes game can exchange their unused tickets for any other Hurricanes game for the remainder of the 2009-10 regular season. Such exchanges must be made at the Time Warner Cable Box Office at the RBC Center during regular operating hours beginning Monday, Feb. 1. Fans must have their tickets in-hand when making their exchange.
Seating for the NC State game will be general admission.
Sees the world through ruuu-colored glasses...
Sisu
Anybody wanna sell me some tickets on the cheap for tonights game?
Let the new era of Hurricanes hockey.... begin!
by 3yrsnoplayoffs? on Jan 30, 2010 12:15 PM EST reply actions
More rumors from Ken Campbell at The Hockey News
The Tampa Bay Lightning sale almost done deal. Next up: suggestion that Lecavalier would go to the Kings for Jack Johnson and others….
The Los Angeles Kings have emerged as the front-runner to get Lecavalier, but it’s believed they are unwilling to part with the package of players and prospects the Lightning is demanding. Sources say the Lightning has asked the Kings for defenseman Jack Johnson, right winger Wayne Simmonds, a prospect and draft picks
That’s a big shift for the SE Division.
GM and soothsayer of the Unofficial Hurricanes' fishtank.
Up this week: Introducing Sutter-fish.
Agreed. That’s a lot to give up for Vinny who’s been underperforming. Simmonds is a pretty sold player from what I’ve seen of him, and I’m kinda surprised that the Kings would part with him. Though having JJ back in the division would add some fun drama.
The talk has all been 1- Kovalchuk, 2 – Whitney for a domino line-up of impending deals. If this is true that Vinny is up for adoption (and the Bolt’s blog says it’s all speculation and has no substance) than Whitney is still the “poor man’s option”, but the deals got even more complicated.
They also said that Kings thought this was too rich for them. I still think the discussion of JJ getting traded (and he didn’t make the trip to Boston with a “sore arm”) adds to the rumor mill that he and the Kings will part ways soon.
GM and soothsayer of the Unofficial Hurricanes' fishtank.
Up this week: Introducing Sutter-fish.
by hockeymomof2 on Jan 30, 2010 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
Enjoy the snow
I live in balmy Vancouver where the Olympic Games start in two weeks and we need your snow Carolina. Stop hogging it. Am a Canucklehad fan in the west and a Canes fan in the east. Any idea as to when Ruutu, Cole, Walker are due back??? Mess with the chemistry or not?
Thanks for checking in. Our snow will be short-lived as always, never fear.
Cole and Ruutu have been skating after practice and with the team (check this link from Tuesday) and hopefully might even make this road trip (heading out for 4 away games next week).
Walker is a ways out after surgery.
Joe Corvo might well play by Mon or Wednesday of this week. (Calgary or Edmonton)
GM and soothsayer of the Unofficial Hurricanes' fishtank.
Up this week: Introducing Sutter-fish.
by hockeymomof2 on Jan 30, 2010 1:00 PM EST up reply actions
Cory, I think you made an excellent point in the first paragraph when you said learning to win for the young guys is important even if it costs a high draft pick. I have definitely been on the “let’s tank and get #1 overall” side of things, but your point is a valid one. If you look at franchises that outright stink all the time, even that #1 pick doesn’t help. It seems like youth is often squandered when placed in perpetually losing situations. I think for me to say we need to lose to get that #1 pick is to say I think we can’t win without that player, which is patently false. This team is a winner, draft pick or not. So from here on out, I’m on the winning bandwagon. Let’s finish this season strong, miss the playoffs, and get a mediocre draft pick, wooooooooooo!
sportstalkbuzz.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on Jan 30, 2010 5:54 PM EST reply actions
Maybe the Swiss Nino – I think he’s be a perfect addition to the Caniac Nation.
GM and soothsayer of the Unofficial Hurricanes' fishtank.
Up this week: Introducing Sutter-fish.
by hockeymomof2 on Jan 30, 2010 6:39 PM EST up reply actions
Great Ice – what are you hearing about JJ’s “sore arm” and his potential to be traded (they’re now saying in exchange for Vinny L with Tampa Bay)
GM and soothsayer of the Unofficial Hurricanes' fishtank.
Up this week: Introducing Sutter-fish.
by hockeymomof2 on Jan 30, 2010 6:45 PM EST up reply actions
I am hearing it’s not gonna happen. JJ’s arm has him at day to day, nothing serious, and I doubt Dean Lombardi pulls the trigger for Vinny because allegedly they want JJ, Simmonds, and 2 1sts. Yikes.
sportstalkbuzz.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on Jan 31, 2010 4:50 AM EST up reply actions
Thanks – but Hockeymom wants to know: what are you doing up at 1:50AM PST posting on the blog?
GM and soothsayer of the Unofficial Hurricanes' fishtank.
Up this week: Introducing Sutter-fish.
by hockeymomof2 on Jan 31, 2010 9:37 AM EST up reply actions
Jack Johnson
My guess is that Jack Johnson is shipped out before the Olympic Break. He has prima donna, high maintenance, diva stamped on his forehead. IF he were an Ovechkin level of player, GMs might excuse it as quaint. Maybe Burke can figure out a way to get him. He seems just like a Burke wannabe player to me.
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