World Juniors Finale Could Shape Hurricanes’ Draft
by Cory Lavalette on Jan 4, 2010 12:55 PM EST
67 comments
The holiday season is a busy time for everyone, but perhaps no one is working more than an NHL scout during the two weeks around Christmas through New Year's. The reason? The IIHF World Under-20 Championships. The very best teenage hockey players from around the world meet with national pride on the line. For some, their NHL future also hangs in the balance. A good performance against the best competition on the planet can solidify or propel a player's draft status. Failing to make your country's squad or struggling in the tournament can lead to a tumbling ranking.
When the 2009-10 season began, the Carolina Hurricanes expected to be competing for a Stanley Cup instead of the worst record in the NHL. Instead, they are taking a hard look at the best of the best: specifically Canada's Taylor Hall and the USA's Cam Fowler.
Last year, John Tavares and Victor Hedman were the two top prospects at the WJC's. Tavares' dominant performance at the tournament — specifically the way he took over the New Year's Eve matchup against the U.S., then outplayed Hedman in the gold medal game between Canada and Sweden — solidified his place as the No. 1 overall pick, eventually leading to his selection by the New York Islanders.
In this year's U.S.-Canada game, neither Hall nor Fowler took over the way Tavares had a year before. In fact, neither has proven to be their country's best player over the course of the tournament. U.S captain Derek Stepan — a 2008 second-round pick of the Rangers — and Canada's Jordan Eberle — taken 22nd overall by Edmonton in 2008 — have been the difference-makers for their respective teams.
While Hall's numbers are impressive — five goals and four assists in five games — they are not mind-blowing for a team averaging more than eight goals a game in the tournament. He's shown flashes of brilliance. His skating and puck handling are on par, if not better than, most anyone else in the tournament, and his elevated hockey sense is evident. But much of the damage he's done has come against inferior opponents: two games vs. Switzerland, one against Slovakia and the other vs. Latvia. In his one game against tough competition — Team USA — Hall was held to just two shots and kept off the scoresheet, plus was a minus-2 in a game Canada won in a shootout. He was not chosen as one of Canada's four shooters..
Like Hall, Fowler's skills have been on display, but not in dominant fashion. The hulking defenseman has shown he can punish the opposition and has a pro-level first pass out of his own zone. He also plays with poise and confidence on special teams, and has not been hesitant to unleash his powerful slapshot on the power play. Through six games, Fowler has just two assists with 13 shots on net, but has been plus-8. He was quietly efficient against Canada on New Year's Eve, going pointless but helping to hold the Canadian offensive juggernaut in check. But there have been moments of indecision and even struggles for Fowler, who at times has lacked some hustle and desperation in his own end.
The good news for Carolina and the other teams angling for a top pick? The U.S. and Canada will do it once more Tuesday when they meet for the gold medal (8 p.m., NHL Network in U.S.), meaning Hall and Fowler — teammates in the OHL with the Windsor Spitfires — will get one final chance to make their case on junior hockey's biggest stage. A standout performance from either could mean being the No. 1 overall pick — perhaps to Carolina. If nothing is resolved Tuesday, Plymouth's Tyler Seguin, the third wheel in this race to the top spot, could benefit despite not being chosen to Canada's team.
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Taylor Hall
I have been watching the WJCs, but not studying them. From what I’ve seen, Taylor Hall is the #1 pick without a doubt. Cam Fowler is going to be a great player; but I suspect Tyler Seguin will be the second pick. Cam Fowler will be the third pick, I think. There are some very, very talented players in this year’s draft. I think the #1 pick was Taylor Hall’s to lose; and he certainly did not cause anybody to doubt his skill or his heart.
Windsor won the Memorial Cup last season, so it’s not like Hall or Fowler are known for blowing it in big games. But I’d like to see Hall elevate his game some — he’s still the frontrunner, but if Fowler comes out tomorrow and dominates the game or both guys are invisible, it’s going to leave a lot to question.
If nothing else, it should be a helluva game. Hopefully a puck on Schroeder’s stick isn’t the difference, b/c he seems to shrink from the spotlight some.
by Cory Lavalette on Jan 4, 2010 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
first off happy new year everybody!
You know who has impressed me and I would be thrilled to see us hit with our second round pick is D’amigo for Team USA. The kid is has hustle and a good skill set. Hall has actually fallen, albeit slightly, in my eyes through what I have seen of him in the tourney. He has the skills that are advertised, but the way he played against US made me think that he may not be as NHL ready as previously stated. I think he just needs another year to be ready for the jump in talent.
All that aside the WJHC has been some fun hockey to watch. Something about knowing these kids are playing for their futures makes the games special. You feel both their successes and failures a little more acutely.
Thanks for helping to put this all in perspective. I’ve never paid a lot of attention, with the NHL/AHL being about as deep as I wanted to go but with the Canes situation, I think all of us are learning a lot about major junior hockey (and NCAA hockey too).
Anyone up for a live thread for the final tomorrow at 8pm? I’d love to hear what others take is from what they see. It has all the makings of quite a battle with a great display of both skill, smarts and hunger. (Imagine if it was a 7-game series!?)
Gleason for the "C" :
Just what do we need to do to make this happen?
USA, USA, USA
Pulling for the home team.
I’m hoping that the boys from the Canes on their respective national teams do really, really well. I still want their respective goalies for Canada and Finland to spring multiple leaks.
Then they all come back rested and pissed, ready to skate as a Cane.
Happerry Chrisolkwanaka
I’m on hold w/ AT&T
Worst customer service on planet earth…..
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Jan 4, 2010 1:57 PM EST reply actions
I could have told you that.....
there’s a company that thinks they save money by missing SLAs as they “out sourced it” and saved on the front end.
US management practices at their best.
Happerry Chrisolkwanaka
I finally just hung up….
I only have DSL service with them…. and if you do not know the # to the DSL jack in your home they refuse to look up your account using your name and/or SSN…. bastards.
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Jan 4, 2010 2:06 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, call me a wet blanket
but looking “forward” to “win by losing” is no way to go.
I just can’t stand the fact that the “winner” of being the biggest “loser” could easily be the Canes this year.
Yeah, “Just try to make the best of it”, is what some might say but that person wouldn’t be me.
Happerry Chrisolkwanaka
Thing is…. we still are not 100% sure of getting the #1 pick…. even if we’re dead last….
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Jan 4, 2010 2:00 PM EST up reply actions
Then wishing to be the #1 in an inverted list
is foolish and destructive.
Then how many times has a #1 pick turned into a #1 epic fail?
Happerry Chrisolkwanaka
At www.nhl.com, there is a list of drafts. In the past, 1-5 draft picks were mature players whose skill was a known commodity. Sometimes in deep drafts, 1-15 were known talents. Given the training available to talented players now, and the amount of scrutiny they get, draft choices 1-5 usually work out well.
Draft Info 1 - 10 from last year
http://www.nhl.com/ice/draftstats.htm#?navid=nav-ply-drft
Rnd Pick Overall Team Player Pos Country Ht Wt Amateur League Amateur Team
1 1 1 NYI John Tavares C CAN 6’ 0" 195 OHL London
1 2 2 TBL Victor Hedman D SWE 6’ 6" 230 SWEDEN Modo
1 3 3 COL Matt Duchene C CAN 5’ 11" 200 OHL Brampton
1 4 4 ATL Evander Kane C CAN 6’ 2" 190 WHL Vancouver
1 5 5 LAK Brayden Schenn C CAN 6’ 1" 192 WHL Brandon
1 6 6 PHX Oliver Ekman-Larsson D SWE 6’ 2" 176 SWEDEN-2 Leksand
1 7 7 TOR Nazem Kadri C CAN 6’ 0" 167 OHL London
1 8 8 DAL Scott Glennie R CAN 6’ 1" 185 WHL Brandon
1 9 9 OTT Jared Cowen D CAN 6’ 5" 220 WHL Spokane
1 10 10 EDM Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson L SWE 6’ 1" 201 SWEDEN Timra
I don’t see anybody in 1-10 that teams regret picking. 1-5 are even clearer as fine picks, I think.
Dead Last
If dead last, the Hurricanes will pick either #1 or #2. I believe #1 pick is Taylor Hall and #2 is Tyler Seguin (unless Cam Fowler is picked #2).
I wonder if the ’Canes regret picking Jack Johnson…..
They could have found another way to pick up Gleason….
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Jan 4, 2010 2:17 PM EST up reply actions
Gleason was 23rd in the 2001 draft, the year we picked Igor Knyazev 15th overall.
What I believe JR regrets is not trading downwards (or, heck, even drafting him at #3) to pick up Marc Staal, who went to the Rangers 12th overall in 2005, instead of picking Jack Johnson…who did turn into Gleason, after all, and got rid of Tverdovsky’s $2.7M contract in the process.
I agree, although Cory has mentioned that he doesn’t think Rutherford seriously entertained taking Marc Staal that year. In a perfect world, we pick Gleason instead of Knyazev, and move down and acquire M Staal and also get a player/ pick in return.
by hockeythoughts on Jan 4, 2010 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
It would’ve been tough to pass on Johnson … everyone expected him to be an absolute superstar.
by Cory Lavalette on Jan 4, 2010 3:14 PM EST up reply actions
Johnson in Hindsight
The fundamental rule in early picks is don’t out think yourself. A second rule is that go with the horse with pedigree — in other words, Marc Staal was a winner and was going to be excellent. He was a more known commodity. It is why I hope the Hurricanes take either Hall or Seguin in that order. You can’t go wrong with them or with Cam Fowler. All three will be excellent players. Top three or four picks come along once a decade. Take the solid pick with the least risk of flopping.
Another Rule
A third important rule is that if the hockey dad or hockey mom is a raging pain in the ….. neck …. think long and hard before selecting the player because you are likely getting the entire family not just the player.
also, it’s not like there were problems with Jack Sr. when JJ was at Michigan (other than his crazy dancing, but the Johnson family has long been UM fans). When a guy like Red Berenson calls you maybe the best d-man to play at Michigan, that’s a pretty strong endorsement.
by Cory Lavalette on Jan 4, 2010 3:34 PM EST up reply actions
IMO, outthinking yourself would’ve been taking Marc instead of JJ. Also, it’s hard to argue with JJ’s pedigree. From the time he was a kid at Shattuck-Saint Mary’s playing with Crosby, he was considered a sure thing. And he still may emerge as an excellent defenseman — hell, he made the Olympic team, even if I don’t agree with it.
It would’ve been a mistake to take Jared instead of Dalpe, IMO. I don’t think this year’s is clear cut yet … we learn a little more tomorrow.
by Cory Lavalette on Jan 4, 2010 3:30 PM EST up reply actions
JJ --violated Rule 3
The only problem with JJ was whether his father was a person with whom the Hurricanes organization would be comfortable. Obviously, JJ did not want to play with the Hurricanes. JJ may still become the player who lives up to the hype. I think JJ made the Olympic team so Burke could court him for Toronto. In my view with top five picks you have to make them count. I would see Marc Staal as coming from a steadier family and having the physical skills to be excellent. Jack Johnson was less predictable — perhaps with a much higher upside, but more of a prima donna. It’s all hindsight and indeed if the Hurricanes took Marc Staal and then JJ was awesome, they would be harshly criticized.
I do think the best player who is the most guaranteed good pick is the way to go.
He wasn’t considered a prima donna in college. My day job is working on a Univ. of Michigan magazine (among other schools) and I followed him while he was there. I think you’re confusing what we know now with what we knew then.
by Cory Lavalette on Jan 4, 2010 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
Either way….
the mention of Jack Johnson…. and the Mention of his loser of a dad… gets my freeking blood boiling…..
And I think I’m the one who brought it up……
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Jan 5, 2010 12:29 AM EST up reply actions
I liked Eberle last year ( much better than Paradis, but heck, what do I know) . Kid has a motor.
Satan is just a coping mechanism for monotheists.
Did we pass on Eberle and pick Paradis?
by hockeythoughts on Jan 4, 2010 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
yeah … but you know what they say about hindsight.
by Cory Lavalette on Jan 4, 2010 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
Didn’t we just trade Paradis for The Nakey Boy?
First the Nature Boy… now the Nakey Boy…. great……
by Mateos_Canes_Lamp on Jan 5, 2010 12:31 AM EST up reply actions
Was there a good reason why Tyler Seguin was not pick to play in the WJC?
And what I’ve seen of Hall in the games so far has been well above anybody else out there regardless of the stat sheet.
Staal will be the next CAPTAIN........get over it!
Canada is deeper at center than on wing but has enough depth at wing that they don’t need to play a center on the wing (a la Eric Staal on team Canada in the Olympics). if I’m not mistake all four centers on Team Canada’s roster have already been drafted.
5 seconds left.
Do you believe in miracles?
YES!!
I thought I read that we were going to play like the San Jose Sharks the second half of the season to make the playsoffs so talking about draft picks is kind of obselete, isn’t it?
JR won't pick Hall or Seguin or even Fowler
It’s funny how everyone assumes the Canes (even finish last and win the lottery for 1st pick) will pick the #1 prospect. JR is famous for going out on a limb and picking out of the box. Trust me, even if we do get lucky and pick first don’t be shocked when he picks somebody of the radar.
Staal will be the next CAPTAIN........get over it!
JR won't pick Hall or Seguin or even Fowler
It’s funny how everyone assumes the Canes (even finish last and win the lottery for 1st pick) will pick the #1 prospect. JR is famous for going out on a limb and picking out of the box. Trust me, even if we do get lucky and pick first don’t be shocked when he picks somebody of the radar.
Staal will be the next CAPTAIN........get over it!
That would ruin my day. I really hope they stick with Hall, Seguin, Fowler, and take the tried and true route of the well-vetted pick. The Hurricanes just need a pick who will substantially improve the team and don’t have to have a player around whom the entire team becomes focused. I think Hall and Seguin and Fowler are are game changer players — even if some other players are equally good or even potentially slightly better.
I don’t know that the team has gone off the board with a high pick. The closest to going off the board with a top-half of the first pick was Sutter, and that’s gone well (I think we all agree).
by Cory Lavalette on Jan 4, 2010 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
TAYLOR HALL - #1 PICK BY FAR
Rutherford knows what he is doing and he is just monitoring Edmonton and Toronto and we’ll finish last and secure TAYLOR HALL and plop him on a line with Staal and Boychuk next year. I have watched every game of this tourney and Hall is clearly the best player. Remember, he is the youngest kid. All other Canadians have already been dratfed. What he is doing is incredible.
reminds me of Pavel Bure...
speed speed speed…skill…lethal shot…hockey sense…good size….electric….look up Bure’s #s and see how’d you’d like that on your team….5x he went over 90 pts…2x over 60 goals…this kid is Bure plus.
T. Hall is savvy, too!
http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=512302
A
The Canes are like a box of expired chocolates......
watch the Canes rebound just enough to miss the lottery. We’ll play at the same rate as we’ve played the last 10 (about .500). We’ll pass Edmonton, Columbus, Toronto, St. Louis and Philly and end up with the 6th pick.
Just joking. Actually if that starts happening, Rod and AWard need more ice time.
by PackPride17 on Jan 4, 2010 6:33 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I, too, think Hall is our best bet if we get the #1 pick, because we need another scorer. To be honest, the Canes will have about 100% chance of being in the top 3 so I don’t think we can go wrong between Hall, Seguin, or Fowler. As far as playing ourselves out of the top 3…have you watched any games this year? :) The consensus on this board and other places is that the Canes will be sellers approaching the trade deadline, which will mean more Rats in the lineup and an even lower chance to move out of the basement.
In more important and optimistic news, I picked up NHL 2k9 this weekend and my create-a-pro player just made the big league squad.
I was joking. I do think we’ll end up with a top 3 pick, but I wouldn’t be suprised seeing Edmonton and Columbus finish worse than us. Columbus started off the season, but the wheels have fallen off. Edmonton is currently playing the worse hockey in the league. While the Canes obviously stink, the do have one advantage (or disadvantage) on those two teams – the Canes play in the weaker East.
by PackPride17 on Jan 4, 2010 8:43 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I gotta admit I hope and sacrifice chickens you are wrong.
That said the twigs are right there.
These guys have to be consistant in the failure they have wrought. That said even with Staals new stats from his “return” and the core being found and the call ups helping, I kinda think we get that 48/52 shot at number one.
I don’t think it makes up for the pain and suffering and the last time we were here….ouch!!!!…we lost out on the numero uno.. I hope that lightning don’t strike again.
BTW, The Pens now have the worst PP in the league, I hate improving..
;-)
A
The Canes are like a box of expired chocolates......
If you really think about it: whatever could go wrong went wrong for the Canes in the first half of the year.
Our top 10 goalie missed a month – he is playing better now. Our star player missed almost a month – he’s over a PPG player since his return. Rod was playing about 20 minutes a night – now he’s at about 5. Injuries/Suspensions to Cole, Ruutu, Pitkanen, and LaRose – they have returned or are close to returning. And one of our better players (Sutter), his ice time continues to increase.
Regarding playing Rats – I’m sure I’m not the only one who see the energy and better play when they are called up. If you don’t think this team has the talent to win 20 of the remaining 41 games, you are not aware of what this team can do. The players are not going to play for the 1st overall pick. They are going to try to win. We are only a 3 wins behind Edmonton. They have a harder remaining schedule and we have more talent.
I’m not saying it won’t happen, but just don’t be suprised if end up out of the Taylor Hall sweepstakes.
by PackPride17 on Jan 4, 2010 9:07 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Forgot to add we had a 14 game losing streak. I really don’t seeing another double digit losing streak happen this year.
by PackPride17 on Jan 4, 2010 9:09 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
ummm
yeah, but we have a 9-point cushion from 2nd worst! JR can easily manipulate the roster to keep us in the #1 pick slot…
Yep, that was the formula in ‘02-’03. As soon as he had roster room, we saw everyone from Lowell that could legitimately claim a roster spot rotated through the ranks.
Let them make all their rookie mistakes at the ultra-fast NHL level, to their benefit and our standings record. Very entertaining product, nonetheless, even when they lose.
Also lets the org see just what it is we’re holding.
Taking a Test Run with Albany Rats
I agree that the plan is to shed veterans and let the Albany Rats take some test runs during games. The product on the ice will be a much faster team; but they are going to make their share of mistakes. Given the talent available in Albany and with only a trade or two the Hurricanes would be a much improved team.
Again, not to be snide, but in order to maintain losing ways, the Hurricanes might well have to retain enough of the under-achieving, under-producing veterans to drag down the core team and the Albany Rats. I am convinced if the best players from Carolina and Albany were put together in Carolina for the rest of the season, they would go on some winning streaks. Usually winning streaks are desirable, but this season, a failed, Charge of the Light Brigade, run which falls short, would be a financial disaster and a disaster for the organization and fans.
The quest for the 2009-2010 Stanley Cup was a massive flop. Now it is time to embrace the flop and go for the Taylor Hall/Tyler Seguin/Cam Fowler sweepstakes.
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