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Scoring Chances?

(Wow, it's been a long time since I've written a FanPost...)

 

Last year, fans kept track of "scoring chances" for and against for the Canadian teams and the Wild, in every game. With so much potentially hinging on having a better understanding about how players play defense--at this point, defense is more-or-less a team statistic--other fanbases have started tracking scoring chances for this season. George E. Ays on Blueshirt Banter has taken up the Rangers, Derek Zona has adopted the Panthers, Knee high to a duck and myself the Capitals, and so on. I was wondering if any of you would be interested in keeping track of "scoring chances" for the Hurricanes.

 

The "scoring chances" numbers you see on TV are based upon, by my understanding, a pretty strict definition (I think you even have to get a shot on goal, so posts don't count, though I could be wrong). Counting scoring chances is subjective, and we need actual people who understand what they're counting to help keep track. It's really a fun exercise and hopefully at the end of the year we can compare across teams.

 

Counting chances is really quite simply. Just get a notebook and a pen and sit in front of your TV, then each time either the Canes or the opponent get some sort of play that makes you excited or anxious (that someone may score), jot down the time remaining in the period and which team got that chance. The focus should be on shots from the "home plate" area, goal posts to faceoff dots to tops of the circles and across the slot. You don't have to exactly follow these rules, or you'd just be the unofficial scoring chance counts that broadcasts display. Nor do you have to be a stats guru like Hawerchuk or JLikens.

 

When you're finished, go to Vic Ferrari's scoring chances tool at timeonice. Choose Carolina as the primary team. For "Game number," head to the game preview or recap on NHL.com--somewhere in the website URL, you'll see a string of ten digits. The Game number is the final five digits(normally starting with 2). Then just enter the scoring chance data you have--which team, period, time remaining, and any notes you may have (I note goals). It's a little tedious, but when you're done and click "Submit Query," you get this nice chart with what scoring chances you had, who was on the ice, and how individuals did with regards to chances.

You probably want to save the url of this page (it can exceed 3500 characters, so bit.ly or tinyurl is helpful here) and/or save the page to your computer. Periodically then you can take a look to actually see, for example, if Tim Gleason has been playing good defense over the past week (keeping in mind zonestart, quality of competition, etc).

 

Apologies if some of you already do this. I realize that the season is already a few games old, but skipping a few games is not too big of a deal, and I'm sure some of you have access to Gamecenter archives or the missed games on DVR. Counting scoring chances is really fun exercise for the more statistically-inclined of you [looks at C-Leaguer]. I highly recommend it. Even if you can't catch every game, a few people keeping count means we get data from most of the games, and our hockey knowledge base will be richer as a result.

Poll
Are you interested in keeping track of scoring chances for at least some Hurricanes games this season?
Yes (all of them)
0 votes
Yes (most)
1 votes
Yes (some)
5 votes
Yes (a few)
0 votes
No
2 votes
Statistics are BS
1 votes

9 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 20 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Bob/Cory,

Sorry if this is one big blob of text. I’m having internet issues right now. I tried to fix the post, but I’m not sure if it worked or not.

Everyone,

If you haven’t looked at Timeonice, you need to ASAP. It’s a fantastic tool. It’ll take some digging through to figure out what it can do and how to do it (I tried to put together a short how-to guide here, since no one else has seemed to bother making one), but once you know, it opens all sorts of windows.

My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the winger that has now terrorized over 70 NHL goalies.

by red army line on Oct 12, 2010 4:52 PM EDT reply actions  

If you need someone to do some games, I’d be inclined to help. I’ve always found it fascinating what they count as a scoring chance. So, it would be fun to see how my view differs from the real statisticians!

Satan is just a coping mechanism for monotheists.

by wilmnoca on Oct 12, 2010 5:03 PM EDT reply actions  

I’m not, but that’s not to say the excercise does not have value; personally, I think this stat is too subjective and at a glance I can’t find a good definition. I’ll be interested to see what you guys come up with.

by Go_Shelf on Oct 12, 2010 5:19 PM EDT reply actions  

red army, thanks for submitting that information. It is an extremely subjective stat, but it would be interesting to see it tracked in a consistent way over a long period of time.

Editing Manager of CanesCountry.com

by Bob Wage on Oct 12, 2010 5:49 PM EDT reply actions  

i would be glad to help out for a few games…

however, if staal has a breakaway does it count as a scoring chance? we all know he wont score x.x

by ECUCanesFan on Oct 12, 2010 6:09 PM EDT reply actions  

He can't hit water from a boat

Let’s just leave it at that

Twitter @ ivyleager

by ivyleager on Oct 12, 2010 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

While i am an avid fan

but for myself personally…something like that would take away for the whole experience for me…and speaking just for me…I’ll respectfully decline….but i will say for those who do like stats and etc..go for it !!

Everytime you write off the Hurricanes,
They make You Look Bad!!

by CaniacSteve on Oct 13, 2010 7:57 AM EDT reply actions  

Counting scoring chances is really fun exercise for the more statistically-inclined of you [looks at C-Leaguer]

That’s exactly why I responded that Stats are bogus.

I’ll try and keep up with some of the stuff. No guarantees though. My wife is due with our first in February. That may put a damper in things. Shouldn’t be too difficult though. I’ve got a little notebook that I can keep with me.

Don't trust me. I have psychological issues.

by C-Leaguer on Oct 13, 2010 11:08 AM EDT reply actions  

A Wee-leaguer.

Don't trust me. I have psychological issues.

by C-Leaguer on Oct 14, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

ugh……..

Satan is just a coping mechanism for monotheists.

by wilmnoca on Oct 14, 2010 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

It’s already her nickname, and she’s going to destroy you in fantasy hockey next season.

Don't trust me. I have psychological issues.

by C-Leaguer on Oct 15, 2010 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

Here’s a Google doc. Just list the opponent, date, and a link to your data. I’ll write some programs at some point to analyze them.

My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the winger that has now terrorized over 70 NHL goalies.

by red army line on Oct 14, 2010 5:56 AM EDT reply actions  

I only got an error link?

by Go_Shelf on Oct 14, 2010 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

For a while I couldn’t access any of my Google Docs too. See if it works now. Worst comes to worst, just email me at the address in my profile with “Canes Scoring Chances” in the subject and a link to the data in the body of the email, and I’ll put it up.

My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the winger that has now terrorized over 70 NHL goalies.

by red army line on Oct 14, 2010 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

So, do you want to keep this in google docs or just want us to enter it in timeoneice?

Don't trust me. I have psychological issues.

by C-Leaguer on Oct 14, 2010 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

Just enter in the link to the TOI page on the doc. I’ll download them and run some stats at some point. Or you guys can organize something too. It’s your SC chart, after all.

My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the winger that has now terrorized over 70 NHL goalies.

by red army line on Oct 14, 2010 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

Last night

I go the first period last night, but not the second or third. I’d forgotten how much I do around the house during the game (on a side note, DVR = greatest invention ever). I ended up with the chances 7-4 in favor of the Sens, which didn’t match the FSN tally of 9-6 for the Sens. Maybe they have a lower threshold. Who knows. Anyone get the end of the game?

Don't trust me. I have psychological issues.

by C-Leaguer on Oct 15, 2010 9:27 AM EDT reply actions  

which didn’t match the FSN tally of 9-6 for the Sens.

They count differently. Your count is probably better :)

My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the winger that has now terrorized over 70 NHL goalies.

by red army line on Oct 18, 2010 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

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