Contrasts and curiosities between the Canes and the Lightning

by curiouscanesfan on Dec 20, 2010 1:06 PM EST

While waiting for Canes Country's preview of tonight's game, I noticed some extreme contrasts between the Canes and the Lightning.

1. TB is first in shots against, allowing 27.0 per game. The Canes are 29th, allowing 34.5.

2. Despite this, TBL allows more goals than the Canes: 3.31 GPG vs. 2.90.

3. As the first two points suggest, there's a big disparity in save percentages. Both Ellis and Smith stop about 88% of shots against them. For the Canes, Cam Ward stops 92.6% and Justin Peters 88%.

4. There's a big difference in shooting percentage by the teams' leading scorers, but only small differences in shots taken by the two teams and the leading scorers. The Lightning put 32.7 shots on goal per game to the Canes' 30.8. Stamkos has taken 122 shots and scored on 20.5% of them (5th in the league) for 25 goals. Staal has taken 123 shots and scored on 13% of them (92nd in the league) for 16 goals. (The Canes' leaders in shooting % are Tlusty with 13.6 and Ruutu with 13.5, with Sutter at 13.0; this excludes Jon Matsumoto 18.2% on only 11 shots.)

5. Tampa Bay's scoring is more concentrated, with Stamkos accounting for 26% of their goals and Stamkos + St. Louis accounting for 38%. The top 3 scorers (Ryan Malone is the third with 9 goals) account for almost half of Lightning goals (47%). Staal scores 19% of the Canes' goals and, combined with Skinner, scores 28%. The top 3 scorers account for 36% of goals.

6. Nothing new here, but there's a big edge to Tampa Bay on the power play. They lead in home power play scoring percentage with 27.6% and are fourth overall with 23.7%. Carolina scores on 16.2% of its power plays, 22nd overall, thanks to recent improvement.

7. Big edge to the Canes on stopping and scoring shorthanded goals. Tampa Bay is worst in the NHL, allowing 7 shorthanded goals, while the Canes are among the best, allowing 2. That doesn't eliminate the goal differential on power plays, but narrows it from 12 to 7. Tampa Bay hasn't scored a SHG. The Canes have scored 2. That further whittles down Tampa Bay's advantage on power plays.

8. Tampa Bay has 4 EN goals to the Canes' 1, and 5 5 on 3 goals to the Canes 3. That seems like a big disproportion on goals in those unusual situations. The teams are virtually tied in 5 on 5 goals, with TBL having one more at 58, but having played an extra game.

Looks like a great night for Sutter's line to have a great night against Stamkos. It would be fatal to repeat the 5 on 3 and 6 on 3 mess that the Canes allowed the Ducks.

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Comments

Great post! Love the analysis.

Point 1: Tampa Bay ranking lowest in shots allowed would indicate they must have some good shot blockers on defense, since teams probably start the same number of attempts toward the net, but more attempts are ending up as missed or blocked shots instead of shots on goal.

Points 2 and 3: I agree with your deductive reasoning. Suspect goaltending on their end of things. Advantage Canes

Points 4 and 5: A 20.5% shooting percentage for Stamkos is unreal, especially considering how many shots he’s taking. That’s how big career years in goal scoring occur. Shooting more often and/or more accurately than others. He’s doing both.

And, to think that Stamkos alone accounts for essentially the goal-scoring horsepower we get out of our two studs, Staal and Skinner, is sobering. But, we do have a much more diversified and balanced scoring attack that is much less susceptible to season-altering injuries and is a bit tougher to defend.

Point 6: Time to play a bit more disciplined, guys. We don’t want to put Vinnie, Steve, and Martin on power play against us, now do we?

As for Sutter’s line defending against their top line, we’ll have a tough time getting that matchup on the road, where the Lightning will have last change coming out of breaks.

This may turn out to be a strength-on-strength evening, where Staal and his linemates have to try and contain them, scrambling a defensive pair to help if we get caught in a line mismatch.

Here we are now...entertain us.

by Elsker on Dec 20, 2010 1:44 PM EST reply actions

Looks like a great night for Sutter’s line to have a great night against Stamkos.

Or a really bad night against Stamkos and company. It will be interesting to watch if Tampa plays into that matchup or play around the Sutter line. What will be key for Carolina success is 3rd/4th line play, Tampa’s bottom 6 is questionable at best.

by Go_Shelf on Dec 20, 2010 1:46 PM EST reply actions

I’ll point out that Staal usually does pretty well against Tampa. Over the past 4 years, Staal has 33 points in 25 games against Tampa.

Staal, Skinner, and ?; almost a NHL level 1st line!

by PackPride17 on Dec 20, 2010 2:36 PM EST reply actions

I wonder what St.Louis has, he always lights us up.

by Go_Shelf on Dec 20, 2010 4:03 PM EST up reply actions

Martin St. Louis

And, the answer can be found in this game preview:

With 31 goals, Martin St. Louis is tied with Ilya Kovalchuk for the most by any player against the Hurricanes since they moved to Carolina in 1997.

Here we are now...entertain us.

by Elsker on Dec 20, 2010 4:34 PM EST up reply actions

Vincent LeCavalier

And, from that same game preview, comes this factoid:

And while Vincent Lecavalier leads all skaters with 63 career points versus the Hurricanes (since the franchise moved to Carolina in 1997), his 37 assists are one shy of the highest total ever against the Canes (Jaromir Jagr, 38).

Here we are now...entertain us.

by Elsker on Dec 20, 2010 4:36 PM EST up reply actions

For his career, Eric Staal has 25 goals, 19 assists, and a +9 in 41 career games against Tampa Bay.

Staal has a 1.073 PPG average against Tampa
St. Louis has a 1.018 PPG average against Carolina
LeCavalier has a 0.955 PPG average against Carolina

Staal, Skinner, and ?; almost a NHL level 1st line!

by PackPride17 on Dec 20, 2010 4:54 PM EST up reply actions

“It would be fatal to repeat the 5 on 3 and 6 on 3 mess that the ~~Canes~~ refs allowed the Ducks”

FTFY

by malkarx on Dec 20, 2010 7:09 PM EST reply actions

we thank you for this…as many here would wonder what TB has over the Canes !! and in many cases it’s not the team over all but a few…and in this case…a select few…after losing like we did …But there will be a Next Time Huh ??

The moment you write off the Hurricanes,
they make you look bad !!

by CaniacSteve on Dec 22, 2010 9:43 AM EST reply actions