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This year's Canes: Looking at some numbers year-to-date (updated for penalty stats)

I think we're all aware that the Hurricanes have had a pretty good year the last few months, though hardly an impressive season. Here's a quick look at the numbers since the calendar turned to 2010. There have been 31 games (nearly half of the 71 the team has played), which is a large enough sample to not to be perceived as a "fluke of scheduling" or unusual tear. This span of games is sufficient to show consistency and effectiveness of the roster, the depth (especially in goal), the system, and the coaching.

Since January 1, 2010 the Hurricanes have posted a record of 20-10-1. In the 6 games that have gone into overtime, the Hurricanes are 5-1, with each of those decided before time ran out (including Jamie McBain's .9 second stunner yesterday vs the Penguins).

Other familiar statistics.

Points Wins Losses OTL Goals For Goals Against PP % PK%
 Actual numbers in 31 games since January 1, 2010  41 20 10 1 98 76 19.5% 85.7%
 How would these look if the Hurricanes had matched these numbers for all 71 games 94 46 23 2 224 174
 Based on 71 games, where would those numbers rank in the Eastern Conference 2nd 2nd 2nd 2nd 2nd 4th 7th 3rd

 

Last, remember how "old" the team of experienced veterans was when we started this season in October? Then the average age number was figured at 30.24 years of age. In January, that number was down to 28.59. The players we expect to see take the ice today, with Justin Peters in goal, now average 27.88 years of age. 

After the jump, I've updated this post to look at the penalty numbers (both drawn and committed).

Star-divide

I've figured more stats to answer the question from PackPride17 about Penalties Drawn (giving the Hurricanes powerplay opportunities) and Minor Penalties committed, forcing the team to play short-handed on a Penalty Kill.

These tables include yesterday's game vs the Sabres, so there are now 32 games in 2010.

The number of Powerplay Opportunities/game was almost identical from 2009 to 2010, which on the season so far, I was surprised to see, puts the Canes at the top of the League. More importantly, (if you remember these posts in October) the reduction in minor penalties committed was greatly reduced, which may be why the PK% above has improved as well, when there is nearly one less PK/game (4.65/game in 2009 reduced to 3.84/game in 2010). Extrapolating the rate of Penalty Kills in these 32 games to a 72 game total (like I did above) the Hurricanes would improve to 8th in the NHL (not 18th).

 Power Play opportunities (PP Opp)  Games PP Opps PP Opp/game
 Ranked First in League on the season  72 303 4.21
 First 40 games (2009)   40 169 4.23
 Since Jan 1, 2010  32 134 4.19
 Minor Penalties served (->Penalty kills)  Games Minor penalties Minors/game
 Ranked 18th in League on the season  72 309 4.29
 First 40 games (2009)   40 186 4.65
 Since Jan 1, 2010  32 123 3.84

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Shame they have to play all the games?

Or is that why they play them?

A

Errors of opinion may be tolerated where reason is left free to combat it.

He who knows nothing is closer to the truth than he whose mind is filled with falsehoods and errors

We must indeed all hang together, or most assuredly we shall all hang separately

by Paladin6 on Mar 21, 2010 4:49 PM EDT reply actions  

Youth be served.

prosportsblogging.com

by Great Ice-Pectations on Mar 21, 2010 7:10 PM EDT reply actions  

After I posted this, I realized it might come off as a “what if” piece, which wasn’t my intention. It’s just a way of looking at these last few months and evaluate the changes and adjustments we’ve seen (yes youth be served) have been gradually but consistently introduced.

Tough loss today, eh?

Olympian Tim Gleason in Vancouver: "I don’t care what anybody says, to watch an exciting hockey game, there’s nothing like it."

by Carolyn Christians on Mar 21, 2010 8:15 PM EDT reply actions  

Tough Loss; but It Comes With the Territory

   It was a very tough loss tonight against Buffalo. To my mind, I think games like Buffalo will come with the territory of bringing up younger players and particularly against the teams that are built around size and an inside game. On the other hand, the younger players by and large have been responsible for new energy, skill, and speed.

   I saw the Buffalo game as a precursor for the upcoming draft because the game highlighted both the areas in which the team presently does well and those areas where the team at present struggles. Looking toward next season, I continue to wonder how Jim Rutherford will work his magic to further revamp the team in favor of larger, faster, more physical forwards. With Sutter, Boychuk, and Dwyer now playing the impact of their speed, soft hands, and commitment is extremely impressive. I think the first round pick for Carolina will be projected to play at Carolina next season. With Tlusty, Bowman and possibly Dalpe, focusing only on next season, Jim Rutherford is going to need to move some of the 5’9" 180 lb veteran forwards, i.e. Samsonov and possibly LaRose. Brind’Amour’s situation is the elephant in the room and has been for two seasons. Last night shows what Brind’Amour can still do; but also demonstrated how a lack of speed and quickness, and iron hands haunt him.

    Beyond next season and projecting into 2011-2012, Samson and Osala should clearly be ready to play at Carolina. It is conceivable that from the numerous second round picks, at least one of those players will be ready for 2011-2012.

   So for Jim Rutherford, one of the first gaps to fix is the third line center, in order to move Dwyer to fourth line center. The first round pick I think will address the need for a large, explosive scorer to go onto Staal’s line — hopefully in 2010-2011; but certainly by 2011-2012.

    The game also showed unfortunately that the Hurricanes struggle on the power play when large-bodied teams dare the Hurricanes to skate the puck into the slot in order to score. After the game, the commentators and players suggested that the Hurricanes needed to have a shoot first mentality which is true; but until the Hurricanes have a bona fide power forward with size, speed, and scoring skills, they are going to have an uphill battle against the bigger teams on power plays. Cole will get opportunties; but his lack of soft hands undermines tremendously his effectiveness. Staal lacks the shiftiness to skate the puck to the net. Sutter is by far the most talented skater/scorer of the centers, but he at present lacks the bulk to overwhelm the defense on the power play. The time may well come over the next two or three years where Sutter is a force of nature. For example, Jordan Staal was actually quite skinny when he first came into the league.

   For me, as long as the team is learning, getting younger, and moving forward with the rebuild, tonight’s games are a necessary teaching lesson. In some ways, I am the most proud of the team for the guts they showed tonight — even more so than in some of the victories. Adversity builds character and this team is showing class and character as it battles through a tough start.

by abramsdoug on Mar 21, 2010 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Its quite amazing that at the start of this season, Staal was the youngest player on this team. Even when Sutter and Dwyer were added, Staal was the 2nd youngest. As of today, Staal is a grizzeled, old vet. Sutter, Boychuk, McBain, Carson, Rodney, Harrison, and Peters are all younger. That doesn’t even include Tlusty, Picard, Bowman, and Samson that have all seen time in the NHL this season. This is really a significant change from 2009 to now.

Triple Gold Juice - It's Potent and Guaranteed to Help You Score!

by PackPride17 on Mar 21, 2010 11:32 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

You’re right about how Staal has really changed his place on the team with the new guys. However, a couple of the call-up are still older than he is in years (though not in NHL seasons for sure)

ZACH BOYCHUK 20.42 years old
BRANDON SUTTER 21.08
JAMIE MCBAIN 22.08
JUSTIN PETERS 23.58
BRETT CARSON 24.33
ERIC STAAL 25.42
BRYAN RODNEY 25.92
JAY HARRISON 27.33

Olympian Tim Gleason in Vancouver: "I don’t care what anybody says, to watch an exciting hockey game, there’s nothing like it."

by Carolyn Christians on Mar 22, 2010 8:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

Joss Whedon did a 3 part web series musical called Dr. Horrible. It’s wonderful if you haven’t seen it. http://doctorhorrible.net/

Joss’ brother Zach also did writing for the show. In the commentary there’s a part where he says “ZACH! I’m the youngest!” When the Canes called up Boychuk, I had to look at the ages to confirm he was indeed the youngest in Raleigh. So now, whenever his name is announced I turn to RF and say “I’m the youngest!”

"The increase in pain is way beyond what you would expect a person to play with," said coach Paul Maurice. "Unfortunately it’s even beyond what Tim Gleason can play with, because he can play with just about anything."

by Cyn4Canes on Mar 22, 2010 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

If you like anything else that Joss did (Buffy, FIrefly, etc.) you will probably like it. If not, you may still like it.

It’s the best super hero musical ever! And believe me, it grows on you. First time around, I was like, “Ah, that was kind of weird…” Next time, “Hm, I kind of liked it.” Then, it moves into obsession territory.

=)

by Raccoon Fink on Mar 22, 2010 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Sorry for my mistake. I didn’t realize that Rodney and Harrison were both older than Staal.

Triple Gold Juice - It's Potent and Guaranteed to Help You Score!

by PackPride17 on Mar 22, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Reality Check -- Rod Brind'Amour

Statistics don’t always tell the story of course; but as I was thinking about this season, I was wondering about Brind’Amour and whether his play had leveled out or not. I found these statistics at www.nhl.com.

ROD BRIND’AMOUR 2008-2009 SEASON
80 games
16 goals total
35 assists total
51 points total
+/- 23 #884 or second worse +/ in NHL for 2008-2009 season

ROD BRIND’AMOUR 2009-2010 SEASON TO DATE

71 games
7 goals total
9 assists total
16 points total
+/- 26 #847 or third worse +/ in NHL for 2009-2010 season

ROD BRIND’AMOUR COMBINED 2008-2009 AND 2009-2010 +/- STATISTICS:

151 GAMES
23 goals total
44 assists total
67 points total
2008-2009 +/- 23 #884 or second worse +/ in NHL for 2008-2009 season
2009-2010 +/- 26 #847 or third worse +/ in NHL for 2009-2010 season
combined: +/- -49 for both seasons

with combined goals on ice of 23 goals = 72 total goals against scored when Brind’Amour was on the ice at even strength

by abramsdoug on Mar 22, 2010 8:22 AM EDT reply actions  

Brind'Amour 2010

In fairness to the true spirit of hockeymomof2’s post, which is “what have you done for me this year?”, since the beginning of this calendar year, Brind’Amour’s stats have looked far better than the bleak picture you paint above.

In 32 games in 2010, averaging about 11:30 TOI per game, he has accumulated 5 goals and 3 assists, for 8 points (5-3-8), and is a cumulative minus 3.

That’s not bad numbers for a fourth-line center. And, note that he played in all 32 of those games.

by Elsker on Mar 22, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

5 goals, 3 assists 5-3-8 and -3

   In general 5 goals, 3 assists (5-3-8) over the course of 32 games and 3 are indeed very respectable numbers. Add a $3,000,00 salary hit to the mix and 39 years of age, and those statistics become somewhat less appealing; but it is clear Brind’Amour’s play has improved over the past 32 games. I suppose for next season the question is which Brind’Amour will start the season - the one from the first 120 games or so; or the Brind’Amour from the past 32 games.

by abramsdoug on Mar 22, 2010 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

ADog: we really need to figure out why you have this strike-through issue. Do you use repeated hyphens? (which seems to be a shortcut to modify the font and is happening unintentionally) or are you just trying to show us a draft of your comments and then the final mark up? (very lawyerly, leaving a trail of the process to the final document)

Olympian Tim Gleason in Vancouver: "I don’t care what anybody says, to watch an exciting hockey game, there’s nothing like it."

by Carolyn Christians on Mar 22, 2010 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

I believe that using the minus symbol on this board, as used frequently in denoting a minus plus/minus, acts like a shortcut for the “strikethrough” function (usually invoked by the [strike]test[/strike] (test) HTML inserted by the strikethrough “S” above the entry field).

I now just habitually use “minus” instead of the symbol, because I spotted this phenomena early in my posting era here by use of the “Preview” function (which I highly recommend).

Similarly, the “asterisk” symbol seems to act like the shortcut for bold.

by Elsker on Mar 22, 2010 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

  It is using the minus sign for plus minus. I will write it out from now on.

by abramsdoug on Mar 22, 2010 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Interesting stuff

Those are good stats there HM2. I like the extrapolation to 71 games to see where this team would be now if they had played this way all season. I had no idea that this team is playing at a pace that they would have a +50 goal differential if they had played this way all season. That’s an impressive stat.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Mar 22, 2010 9:51 AM EDT reply actions  

Glad you liked it!

I wanted to do the same thing for all Eastern teams since Jan 1, but didn’t have the time to crunch the numbers myself. Maybe later this week.

In most stats, they would trail only the the Capitals in the East. The PK has really stepped up too. The Power Play since 1/1/10 is actually worse than we are for the full season, meaning the Canes had a better PP in the first 40 games than the last 31. With the arrival of McBain I think those might show some improvement.

Olympian Tim Gleason in Vancouver: "I don’t care what anybody says, to watch an exciting hockey game, there’s nothing like it."

by Carolyn Christians on Mar 22, 2010 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

HM,

How many penalties did we draw the 1st half of the season compared to the 2nd half. This is not an excuse for not converting on the PP, but it SEEMS that we are drawing more penalties now than the start of the season.

Triple Gold Juice - It's Potent and Guaranteed to Help You Score!

by PackPride17 on Mar 22, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

It’s up there under the heading PP Opp. (or did I misunderstand your question?)

 on the season, in 72 games 303 total powerplay opportunities (minor penalties drawn) or 4.21/game
 First 40 games (2009) 40 games, 169 total or 4.23/game
 Since Jan 1, 2010 32 games,134 total, or 4.19/game

You can see all the penalty stats at NHL.com by looking under the Team heading, and then going to game-by-game. You can filter by team to see the Canes in isolation.

Olympian Tim Gleason in Vancouver: "I don’t care what anybody says, to watch an exciting hockey game, there’s nothing like it."

by Carolyn Christians on Mar 22, 2010 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Here’s the place to start since those directions got a little convoluted.

Olympian Tim Gleason in Vancouver: "I don’t care what anybody says, to watch an exciting hockey game, there’s nothing like it."

by Carolyn Christians on Mar 22, 2010 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

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# Pos. DOB W H
Bryan Allen 5 D 8/21/1980 226 6-5
Brian Boucher 33 G 1/2/1977 200 6-2
Drayson Bowman 21 C 3/8/1989 190 6-1
Tim Brent 37 C 3/10/1984 188 6-0
Patrick Dwyer 39 RW 6/22/1983 175 5-11
Justin Faulk 28 D 3/20/1992 205 6-0
Tim Gleason 6 D 1/29/1983 217 6-0
Jay Harrison 44 D 11/3/1982 211 6-4
Jussi Jokinen 36 LW 4/1/1983 198 5-11
Derek Joslin 27 D 3/17/1987 210 6-1
Chad LaRose 59 LW 3/27/1982 181 5-10
Jamie McBain 4 D 2/25/1988 200 6-2
Andreas Nodl 14 RW 2/28/1987 196 6-1
Justin Peters 60 G 8/30/1986 205 6-1
Joni Pitkanen 25 D 9/19/1983 210 6-3
Tuomo Ruutu 15 LW 2/16/1983 200 6-0
Jeff Skinner 53 RW 5/16/1992 193 5-11
Jaroslav Spacek 8 D 2/11/1974 210 6-0
Eric Staal 12 C 10/29/1984 205 6-4
Anthony Stewart 13 C 1/5/1985 230 6-3
Brandon Sutter 16 C 2/14/1989 183 6-3
Jiri Tlusty 19 C 3/16/1988 209 6-0
Cam Ward 30 G 2/29/1984 185 6-1

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