Interesting Prospect/Draft Oulook
by Caniac Kid on Mar 5, 2010 2:06 PM EST
19 comments
http://hurricanes.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=520266&navid=DL|CAR|home
The article offers some insight to the outlook of the 3 young players we acquired at the deadline. The most interesting thing in the article, in my opinion, is the Jason Karmanos' comments about how this years draft class is rather strong, similar to the class of 2003. I thought I had heard that this class was relatively weak outside of the top ten? Maybe not, but if you look at our 2003 draft, other than Eric Staal, we completely struck out. Other than Danny Richmond and Kevin Natsiuk, I haven't even heard of the other draftees by the Canes. We all know that neither Richmond and Natsiuk turned into anything serviceable for us.
I just hope that our scouting staff has improved and will actually pick some players that will develop into NHL regulars for us instead of the duds we got in rounds 2-7 in 2003.
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Actually, Danny Richmond turned into Anton Babchuk via a straight trade (and an exchange of fourth-round picks) with Chicago in January of 2006.
Whether or not that’s anything serviceable for us is the subject of quite some debate within this forum. ;-D
However, you are correct. 2003 was not a good year for us in the draft (other than Eric).
But, then, that’s been the rule for us, rather than the exception. We have had some absolutely pitiful draft years until just recently.
ive heard we have the smallest scouting department in the entire league. don’t know if its true, but it is said like it is.
by CarolinaCanes on Mar 8, 2010 9:13 AM EST up reply actions
No idea about the size of the scouting department. With the advent of major scouting services, there are few names that are not known in the draft. The trick is being able to project how an 18 year old is going to mature and grow (both physically and psychologically). It seems to me the Hurricanes are doing a much better job over the past five years with their assessment of which players will fit in Carolina.
Yeah I definitely agree. After reading the article, I went through the last 4-5 drafts for us and they just are awful. I have watched every single one of those drafts and every time I get excited for the players we choose, but retrospectively they all have been disappointments. Its still way too early to determine whether or not are last 2-3 drafts can be considered successful or not.
Looking at the bottom 10 picks in the second round, the only name that jumps out is David Backes. . Any players taken outside of the first round have a marginal chance of making the NHL, but with 3 picks maybe we can catch some lightning in a bottle.
Pogge
Watched the Albany game tonight
McBain was a stud – scored in regulation and in the shootout
Pogge looked weak as hell.
Pogge has to rediscover his game
I didn’t see the Albany game, but I will watch it on the AHLlive archives. I am not at all surprised to read that Pogge looked weak. His game has deteriorated and it is going to take the Hurricanes helping his rediscover his game. He has the potential to do well and the Hurricanes excel at helping players rebuild their game after being unappreciated elsewhere. For a goalie, it seems to be particularly challenging for them to regain their swagger after being unloved by a franchise. I am glad to see you were impressed with McBain. In the games I’ve been watching, he has grown by leaps and bounds this season. To me is playing like somebody who will move mountains to make the Carolina team next season.
Actually, I was surprised to learn that Justin Pogge was AHL player of the week 3 weeks ago. (Feb 15). I was hoping for more when I saw that. But after an incredible junior career he’s really struggled his first couple years as a pro. That can’t be helpful.
Olympian Tim Gleason in Vancouver: "I don’t care what anybody says, to watch an exciting hockey game, there’s nothing like it."
I’ve actually started collecting some information about the last 10 drafts that I will post in a day or two (when I’m finished). While the 2003 draft was very strong in the first 2 rounds, the rest of the draft was rather week. There were very few good players that were found beyond the 2nd round. The one thing I noticed first while compiling the information is that good goalies are found later in the draft. I think Lunqvist was like selection #252.
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by PackPride17 on Mar 5, 2010 10:09 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Second Round Picks
I don’t what to duplicate efforts, and I had intended to create a list of the second round picks who were monsters and the second round picks who were duds. I was pleased overall with the number of second round picks who were fantastic NHL players. One of four second round picks play significant games in the NHL; but the ones who make it often are as successful or more successful that first round picks.
Hitting and missing with second rounders (Canes version)
Since coming here in ’97, the Canes have had a second round pick in 10 of their past 13 drafts.
Projecting that both Dalpe and McBain make the roster when ready, 7 of those 10 picks made the team (not just a brief appearance), although throwing Zigomanis into that category is a push.
DeFauw wasn’t much of a player. Bayda was a decent fourth-line grinder and could do spot duty in the top nine.
Richmond became Babchuk. Justin Peters looks like a keeper (pun intended). We’re hopeful on Dalpe and McBain. Jury’s still out on Dumoulin.
That’s our second round experience…at least to date. No question that having more picks will certainly improves the odds of success in that round.
25 percent success rate league-wide
Heard a stat thrown out on NHL Live in the aftermath of the trade deadline, commenting on all the second-round picks traded, that only 25 percent of second-rounders in the past ten years of the NHL drafts have played 82 games or more (that was their criteria of success and their source for the stat is unknown).
So, using that criteria to judge the ten years out of the past thirteen (as Canes) that the org has had a second rounder, we have only had two players play that many games or more in the NHL, for a 20 percent success rate.
On top of that, one of those two players (Zigomanis and Babchuk*) has an asterisk, since we traded to acquire him. The player we actually drafted (Danny Richmond) has yet to hit that 82 game benchmark.
However, we do have both Zac Dalpe and Justin Peters in the bank as second-rounders, with good potential to make 82 games or more in the NHL. That would raise our success rate to 40 percent, if so.
Not too shabby, especially since the early years of the org was flinch-worthy in its general success ratio. Hence a team full of veterans…no alternatives.
However, our drafting prowess has taken a quantum leap ever since the brain trust was assembled within the org. Single greatest competive advantage this team has, to tell the truth.
Little appreciated or discussed, but the assemblage of brain power that is now focused on the Canes is a huge change management change that has happened to the org, and what encourages me the most about the org’s future.
I am personally a huge practitioner of the principle that two heads are better than one (because, well, they are!). Having minds like Johnston/Francis/Rowe/Wesley/Barasso/Rutherford focused on the Canes…well, I’m pretty excited about the future, both near and far.
We’re now beginning to move from fission to fusion and become a sustainable system, fed from the bottom with raw talent, nurtured into NHL readiness by a fully stocked minor league team that plays the org’s system, player development lead by former players…pinch me. :-D
Drafting is more a crap shoot than anything else. It is likely that we just got the luck of the draw on Bowman/McBain and Peters is just a mediocre backup. Granted there are a few teams such as Detroit that has an amazing brain trust that consistently picks up superstars in the late rounds (Datsyuk and Zetterberg being prime examples), however I seriously doubt the Canes spend the extra cash to scout Canada and Europe that extensively.
Trying to decide how 18-year-olds will turn out is certainly an inexact science. A “crapshoot”? No, I differ on that, since it is an informed decision being made, not a mere roll of the dice.
And, the more minds tasked to the assessment of talent before that decision is made, the better.
Being able to afford a scouting network that can comb the European continent (not such a competitive advantage any longer, in the age of Internet access and databases) is another matter entirely. But, with the KHL, European leagues, etc., I’m less concerned about that than in the past.
"I would say the first time I came across his name was at last year’s scouting meetings when he was a first-year pro," said Jason Karmanos, the Hurricanes’ vice president and assistant general manager. "He really came out of the gate strong last year, so that gets identified in our scouting reports and gets talked about in our scouting meetings. From there, you begin to try to track them a little bit more and pay attention when Albany is playing Hershey and whatnot."
-Jason Karmanos
Is it just me or does this comment rub others the wrong way as well. It shows complete lack of efficiency in our scouting system. Osala was 8th in the Washington prospects list. How was this guy overlooked? This is a division opponent at the AHL level.
I will agree that our drafting has gotten better, but nowhere near the level of teams like Washington and Detroit. Something we need to work on considering how small our market it is.
A comparison to the 2003 class is a bit much. This draft class doesn’t appear as weak as it did at the start of the season, but it’s by no means 2003. Look at the first round here. Only one player, Hugh Jessiman selected 12th, has yet to play minutes in the NHL. If this draft is this deep, I won’t be upset at all with drafting 9th and taking the next Dion Phanuef. Unfortunately I don’t think it’s that deep. There will be talent to be had, but there won’t be the talent level of a Phanuef, Carter, Parise, or Getzlaf in the picks between ten and twenty.
How will you feel if Whitney signs with another team in the summer?
Since Cory is still out-of-pocket, I think I can repeat his previous observations that 2010 is NOT a deep draft. Top 5, maybe10, are great as always, but 2nd rounders are same as always too: Hit-or-miss.
I thought Karmanos’ comments contradicted most of what I’ve heard. But then, he’s right in the middle of it and I’m relying on what others are writing and saying.
Olympian Tim Gleason in Vancouver: "I don’t care what anybody says, to watch an exciting hockey game, there’s nothing like it."
by hockeymomof2 on Mar 6, 2010 10:00 AM EST up reply actions
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