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Draft Analysis 2000-2004 - Part 1

What I have tried to do here is a draft analysis for what the Canes might be expecting in this year's draft based on our past draftees and our current draft picks.  We currently have 10 (maybe 11) draft picks for the 2010 NHL Draft.  Based on team's current placement and not taking any compensatory picks into account, the Canes have the 3rd, 33rd, 50th, 51st, 63rd, 84th(?), 104th, 153rd, 173rd, 183rd, and 210th pick.  I have also tried to list all players that have had at least a somewhat significant contribution to a NHL team that were taken after the 1st round.  If I missed someone, sorry, there are a lot of draft picks in 5 seasons.  I hope you enjoy reading this, it's long!

2000 NHL Draft

These are the picks that the Hurricanes had this year.

#32 Tomas Kurka-LW, #80 Ryan Bayda-LW, #97 Niclas Wallin-D, #110 Jared Newman-D, #181 J.D. Forrest-D, #212 Magnus Kahnberg-LW, and #235 Craig Kowalski-G.

Only 2 of these players have had any significant contribution in the NHL and Bayda being one of them, he is not exactly a NHL regular.

These are the picks that correspond to where the Hurricanes are drafting this season.

#3 Marian Gaborik-LW, #33 Nick Schultz-D, #50 Segei Soin-C, #51 Kris Vernarsky-C, #63 Agris Saviels-D, #84 Peter Hamerlik-G, #104 Jon Disalvatore-RW, #153 Bill Case-D, #173 Tomas Harant-D, #183 Michal Macho-RW, and #210 John Eichelberger-C.

Only 2 of these players have done anything in the NHL, but Gaborik is an excellent player and Schultz is a solid bottom defenseman.  The rest of the group is pretty much worthless.

Here are the "draft finds" of the 2000 NHL Draft (decent to good players drafted after the 1st round).

Nick Schultz, Andy Hilbert, Tomas Kopecky, Ilya Bryzgalov, Jarrent Stoll, Andreas Lilja, Antonie Vermette, Dan Ellis, Paul Martin, Mike Rupp, Ryan Bayda, Kurt Sauer, Dominic Moore, Niclas Wallin, Lubomir Visnovsky, Michael Ouellet, Tarvis Moen, Greg Zanon, John-Michael Liles, Darcy Hordichuk, Henrik Lundqvist, Matthew Lombardi, and Paul Gaustad.

Of this group Henrik Lundqvist-G has been the best find, drafted at #252.  Jarrett Stoll-C (#46), Paul Martin-D (#62), and Lubomir Visnovsky-D (#118) are all very good players.  25% of the 2nd rounders have played significant roles in the NHL, 13% for the 3rd, and10% overall (after the 1st round).

2001 NHL Draft

These are the picks that the Hurricanes had this year.

#15 Igor Knyazev-D, #46 Mike Zigomanis-C, #91 Kevin Estrada-LW, #110 Rob Zepp-G, #181 Daniel Boisclair-G, #211 Sean Curry-D, and #244 Carter Trevisani-D.

Of this group, Mike Zigomanis was an somewhat decent player; but he is already out of the NHL at the age of 29.  This would have to be considered a bad draft by the Hurricanes.

These are the picks that correspond to where the Hurricanes are drafting this season.

#3 Alexandr Svitov-C, #33 Timofei Shishkanov-LW, #50 Chris Thorburn-C, #51 Jaroslav Bednar-RW, #63 Peter Budaj-G, #84 Kenny Smith-D, #104 Brent Maclellan-D, #153 Tuukka Mantyla-D, #173 Justin Aikins-C, #183 Jaroslav Sklenar-LW, and #210 Steve Belanger-G.

These picks were pretty much a waste of time.  Probably the best NHL player in this group is Budaj and he isn't exactly good.

Here are the "draft finds" of the 2001 NHL Draft (decent to good players drafted after the 1st round).

Derek Roy, Tim Jackman, Fedor Tyutin, Mike Zigomanis, Mike Cammalleri, Jason Pominville, Jay McClement, Nathan Paetsch, Peter Budaj, Tomas Plekanec, Craig Anderson, Stephane Veilleux, Evgeny Artukhin, Patrick Sharp, Jordin Tootoo, Ray Emery, Cory Stillman, Christian Ehrhoff, Christoph Schubert, Kyle Wellwood, Kevin Bieksa, Mike Smith, Dennis Seidenberg, Ryan Clowe, Marek Zidlicky, Andrew Alberts, Jussi Jokinen, Brooks Laich, Cristobal Huet, David Moss, Johnny Oduya, Marek Svatos, Aaron Voros, Martin Gerber, and Milan Jurcina.

This group has a alot of Canes connections in it; Zigomanis, Stillman, Seidenberg, Alberts, Gerber, and of course Jussi.  There probably isn't a superstar in this group, but there are many very good players.  Derek Roy-C (#32), Mike Cammalleri-C (#49), and Patrick Sharp-C (#95) are probably considered the best players.  This was actually the deepest draft IMO from 2000 to 2004.  27% of the 2nd rounders have played significant roles in the NHL, 15% for the 3rd and 4th, 19% for the 6th, 13% for the 7th, and15% overall (after the 1st round).

2002 NHL Draft

These are the picks that the Hurricanes had this year.

#25 Cam Ward-G, #91 Jesse Lane-D, #160 Daniel Manzato-G, and #224 Adam Taylor-RW.

Small draft class by the Canes, but it did net Cam Ward!  Another overall disappointing draft, very few picks and only 1 worked out.  It's tough to build a franchise if you only have 4 draft picks.

These are the picks that correspond to where the Hurricanes are drafting this season.

#3 Jay Bouwmeester-D, #33 Lee Falardeau-C, #50 Sergei Anshakov-LW, #51 Anton Kadeykin-D, #63 Tomas Fleischmann-C, #84 Ahren Nittel-LW, #104 Aaron Rome-D, #153 Peter Hamerlik-G, #173 Luke Fritshaw-D, #183 Paul Ranger-D, and #210 Bryan Hamm-LW.

These were actually some good picks.  Not everyone worked out, but Bouwmeester and Fleischmann are good players and Ranger and Rome do somewhat contribute in the NHL.  As you will also notice, Hamerlik re-entered the draft and was selected again.  It actually happens a few times for a couple of players, so it's not a typo by me.

Here are the "draft finds" of the 2002 NHL Draft (decent to good players drafted after the 1st round).

Jeff DeSlauriers, Jarrett Stoll, Josh Harding, Trevor Daley, Matt Greene, Duncan Keith, Matt Stajan, Jiri Hudler, Tomas Fleischmann, Ole-Kristian Tollefsen, Greg Campbell, Erik Christensen, Franz Nielsen, Matthew Lombardi, Valtteri Filppula, Pat Dwyer, Tom Gilbert, James Wisniewski, Curtis McElhinney, Paul Ranger, Ian White, Max Talbot, Petr Prucha, Dennis Wideman, and Yan Stastny.

This is not exactly an amazing group of players, but you have solid contributors in this group.  Duncan Keith-D (#54) is by far the best player in this group. 27% of the 2nd rounders have played significant roles in the NHL, 18% for the 3rd and 11% overall (after the 1st round).

2003 NHL Draft

These are the picks that the Hurricanes had this year.

#2 Eric Staal-C, #31 Danny Richmond-D, #102 Aaron Dawson-D, #126 Kevin Nastiuk-G, #130 Matej Trojovsky-LW, #137 Tyson Strachan-LW, #198 Shay Stephenson-LW, #230 Jamie Hoffmann-C, and #262 Ryan Rorabeck-C.

A lot more picks this year, but still only 1 roster player.  Now the roster player was Eric Staal and is the face of the franchise, but the organization must do better drafting players.  So far, since 2000, the Canes drafted 27 players and only 3 were roster players with 2 more considered fringe players.  I hope whoever was in charge of scouting was fired.

These are the picks that correspond to where the Hurricanes are drafting this season.

#3 Nathan Horton-C, #33 Loui Eriksson-RW, #50 Ivan Baranka-D, #51 Colin McDonald-RW, #63 Dave Liffiton-D, #84 Konstantin Barulin-G, #104 Philippe Dupuis-C, #153 Mike Brown-G, #173 Tyler Johnson-C, #183 Nate Thompson-C, and #210 Andrei Mukhachev.

The first 2 picks turned out to be very good players.  Horton is a good, but somewhat underachieving player and Eriksson has really become a big time scorer.  The rest of the group hasn't really done anything in the NHL.

Here are the "draft finds" of the 2003 NHL Draft (decent to good players drafted after the 1st round).

Loui Eriksson, Kevin Klein, Kamil Kreps, Patrice Bergeron, Matt Carle, Shea Weber, Patrick O'Sullivan, Maxim LaPierre, David Backes, Jimmy Howard, Daniel Carcillo, Clarke MacArthur, Alexandre Picard, Jan Hejda, Bryon Bitz, Kyle Quincey, Lee Stempniak, Nigel Dawes, John Mitchell, Brad Richardson, Bruno Gervais, Drew Miller, Nathan Paetsch, Joe Pavelski, Kyle Brodziak, Todia Enstrom, Dustin Byfuglien, Shane O'Brien, and Matt Moulson.

This seemed to be more of a hit or miss draft.  The players that hit, they turned out to be pretty darn good.  The players that missed, they missed badly.  The best players in this group are lead by Shea Weber-D (#49), David Backes-RW (#62), Patrice Bergeron-C (#45), and Loui Eriksson-RW (#33).  Then other very good players are Matt Carle-D (#47), Daniel Carcillo-LW (#73), Clarke MacArthur-C (#74), Jan Hejda-D (#106), Kyle Quincey-D (#132), Joe Pavelski-C (#205), Tobias Enstrom-D (#239), Dustin Byfuglien-D (#245) and Matt Moulson-LW (#263).  A lot of people consider this to be one of the deepest drafts.  I don't necessarly consider it deeper than 2001, but the players in this draft have more "star" power than almost any other one. 26% of the 2nd rounders have played significant roles in the NHL, 13% for the 5th and12% overall (after the 1st round).

2004 NHL Draft

These are the picks that the Hurricanes had this year.

#4 Andrew Ladd-LW, #38 Justin Peters-G, #69 Casey Borer-D, #109 Brett Carson-D, #137 Magnus Akerlund-G, #202 Ryan Pottruff-D, #235 Jonas Fiedler-RW, and #268 Martin Vagner-D.

This actually looks like a good draft.  Ladd played for us and has continued to get better in Chicago.  Peters and Carson are in the NHL and looking to be important parts for this team next year.  Borer has suffered through some hard times, but is probably a bottom pairing or 7th defenseman.  The Canes actually seem to be grasping what you should do during the draft.  They sort of missed on the 4th overall pick, but it turned into Tuomo Ruutu, who is a "core" player for today's team.

These are the picks that correspond to where the Hurricanes are drafting this season.

#Cam Barker-D, #33 Chris Bourque-C, #50 Enver Lisin-RW, #51 Bruce Graham-C, #63 David Krejci-C, #84 Alexi Yemelin-D, #104 Fredrik Naslund-RW, #153 Steven Zalewski-C, #173 Adam Pardy-D, #183 Trevor Ludwig-D, and #210 Emil Exelsson-D.

This is starting to get into the time frame where the players are still developing.  Barker is probably a top 4 defenseman, but he's got a little ways to go still.  Bourque and Pardy might be a solid roster players, but they are not there yet.  The best of this group is Krejci, he is a talented playmaker that should continue to get better.  The rest of the group has not developed yet or never will.

Here are the "draft finds" of the 2004 NHL Draft (decent to good players drafted after the 1st round).

David Bollard, Blake Comeau, David Booth, Brandon Dubinsky, Alex Goligoski, David Krejci, Andrej Sekera, Peter Regin, Alexander Edler, Thomas Greiss, Johan Franzen, Dustin Boyd, Tyler Kennedy, Brett Carson, Ryan Callahan, Kris Versteeg, Mikhail Grabovsky, Scott Parse, Patrick Kaleta, Roman Polak, Troy Brower, Matt Hunwick, Chris Campoli, Brandon Yip, Pekka Rinne, and Mark Streit.

This is a solid group of players, but not necessarily stars.  The group is lead by Johan Franzen-C (#97), David Booth-LW (#53), David Krejci-C (#63), Pekka Rinne-G (#258) and Mark Streit-D (#262).  There are other good players, but they haven't really developed far enough along to be considered stars yet.  This draft was more consistent among the rounds than any other.  You were just as likely to get a good player in the 7th as you were in the 4th. 17% of the 2nd rounders have played significant roles in the NHL, 18% for the 3rd and10% overall (after the 1st round).

So my conclusion is that if anybody is expecting to find gold with our draft picks this season, you might not want to hold your breath.  Our 1st should give us a very good player, but the rest is just a crapshoot.  We could end up with a Shea Weber, David Backes, David Booth, Duncan Keith, or David Krejci with one of our 2nd round picks; but we are most likely to end up with a career AHLer or someone that never even makes it that far.  A lot will depend of how our scouting does and if we are maybe able to package picks together to move up.  I am still putting together "Part 2" which will talk about 2005-2009, but remember that those players have not all been given enough time to develop.  Please let me know what you think of this.

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