Carolina v. Norfolk Round 2; Rats win 4 to 2. Samson, Osala, Bowman and friends
Albany beats Norfolk 4-2 March 6, 2010
I watched the second meeting of Albany and Norfolk and had a number of reactions and observations. Albany dominated the game and won 4 to 2. I watched the game without rewinding the video stream, so I didn't catch as much as I would on a second viewing. Also, the AHLlive archive is from the jumbotron, so the entire ice is not shown. That view makes it harder to put an isocam on a particular player.
Samson had an amazing game. Not only did he score twice, but he was all over the ice. He is improving every time I watch him. He works very well with Osala. Even when the Hurricanes were ahead by three goals, Samson never let up at all. He plays with an inner fury. He is playing like somebody who will not be denied a roster spot for Carolina next season. Samson has thirty goals for Albany and plays extremely well positionally,
Osala had two assists. He has great hands and excellent speed. I also think he has patience with the puck and doesn't treat the puck as if it is on fire and has to gotten rid of as soon as humanly possible. One of the best things I've seen from Osala is that he seems to be thinking well ahead of the play and makes excellent passes. Osala also seems to love attacking the net. I will be surprised if he doesn't stick on the Hurricanes, at least on the fourth line, when next season begins.
McBain also played quite well. He has improved dramatically over the course of the season. I am impressed by McBain's acceleration and by his puck handling. Rodney is getting stronger physically. He makes some amazing passes. Bowman is showing me more and more as well. I knew he was a scorer, but he is increasing his physical play as well. Bowman is one of the best natural scorers I've seen. He is one of those players who seems to take shots from crazy angles and yet the puck winds up right at the goal face.
Bellemore has also improved since the season began. He seems more confident with the puck and is seldom out of position. Borer had some excellent plays, but seems to be getting his hockey legs. I have been impressed by Borer before his injuries; and really hope he can continue his progress.
I didn't know what to expect with regard to Pogge. I had seen him play before and had read about him. Pogge had an excellent game. He made some game saving stops. The first goal was a little weak; but he is using his size well and seems to be athletic in the way Peters is athletic. I have a feeling that the Hurricanes will be able to work with him to have him develop into an NHL ready goalie. In the end, Pogge is likely to be traded because the Hurricanes are more likely to focus on Murphy even though Murphy does not have ideal size for an NHL goalie. On the other hand, that situation is likely to be a couple of years down the road.
Dodge had a very solid game and seems to be in position all the time. Terry had also had a solid game. I have been enthusiastic about Pisilli's potential and he has made excellent strides from the start of the season.
There was an interview during intermission (my recollection is that it was the second intermission) with Jason Karmanos. He stated that Sutter, Dwyer, and Carson were not considered members of the Hurricanes and would not be re-assigned to Albany for the playoffs. He left often whether Boychuk would be reassigned to Albany for the playoffs. I suspect Harrison may well be reassigned to Albany for the playoffs.
Looking to next season, I think Boychuk, Bowman, Samson, Osala, McBain and/or Rodney will make the Hurricanes next season. The issue is which players will they replace on the current roster. With four new forwards, there have to be three roster spots opened because Boychuk is already on the team. I assume that prior to the draft, Jim Rutherford is going to make some trades.
Based soley on a one to one merits selection, without consideration of legacy issues, I prefer what Bowman and Samson have to offer over Brind'Amour and Samsonov. If Cole is traded or retires from injuries, Osala would be my pick. I like Cole's speed, size, and strength. Cole does back down defenders and bangs bodies with the inside game. I am underwhelmed with his offensive production this year. I also wonder whether he can remain healthy. Osala is like a bigger, more polished, and better offensively Cole. He is also far less expensive.
I am guessing that Rodney will be given a chance to stick with Carolina this season and that McBain is going to be expected to need another year of seasoning. I can tell McBain is hungry to get to Carolina and he may well make it to Carolina next season.
Interestingly, if the Hurricanes draft well, they will have at least one more roster player next season in their #1 draft choice. I continue to want to see the #1 pick be a large, fast, scoring power foward to go with Staal and Jokinen. If that occurs, Jim Rutherford will have some difficult decisions. LaRose has been playing much, much better since returning from his injury; however, iit would seem that LaRose could be the odd man out next season. If trades are not made prior to the draft, the trade deadline next season will be very, very interesting. Certainly when one factors in the salary of Brind'Amour versus his productivity, Samson or Dwyer seem a better return on investment. Similarly, with regard to Samsonov and Bowman, Bowman is bigger, faster, and has a better shot. For the cost savings, Bowman is a more cost effective choice. With regard to Cole and Osala, Cole may be faster, but Osala is bigger and is a better skater and has much better hands and a much better shot. Considering Cole's cost, Osala is a good choice.
If the #1 draft choice is NHL ready, it is going to be hard for LaRose to beat out the #1 pick, Osala, Bowman, or Samson. LaRose has been a survivor, so I wouldn't count him out; but he is facing stiff competition for a roster spot next season. With LaRose's contract expiring next season, he could be a player traded at the deadline. On the other hand, Dwyer is a player who could be the odd man out. Dwyer has played extremely well and plays intelligently and intensely every shift. From a cost savings standpoint, Dwyer provides skill and energy at a very affordable price.
I think we are seeing since January the emergence of the new Hurricanes team. My hunch is that the transformation will continue during the off-season and that there will be even more changes before the 2010-2011 season.
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Nice write up AD! I like the breakdown of the players, you don’t get that type of info generally by following the Albany newspapers or game reports. Very happy to hear good things about Samson and McBain. Interesting that Dwyer and Carson are no longer considered Rats. I’m sure they were happy when they heard that statement. I think it speaks volumes to how the org. feels about the young guys.
Value Assessment Managing the Salary Cap (some esoteric)
What is becoming clear to me is that Jim Rutherford is a master at value assessment as part of managing the salary cap and the Hurricanes salary budget. The idea is to find players who offer value for there salary. For example, considering a value analysis in the hypothetical realm a $550,000 fourth line player adds more value to the team than a $1,900,000 fourth line player because the difference, $1,350,000 of gained salary can be used to sign other players with higher productivity.
From that assessment, Sutter, Carson, Boychuk, Tlusty, Bowman, Samson, Osala, McBain, and Rodney are all high value players. Sutter and Carson have seamlessly made the jump to the NHL. I would argue that Boychuk too is NHL ready. As shown last night against Atlanta, he drew three penalties by employing his speed and aggressive style. He did so in relatively low minutes.
Even if a young player like Dwyer, for example, is hypothetically 95% as effective over the course of a season as Samsonov, the differential in salary would argue for retaining Dwyer and using the salary savings to re-sign other players or obtain other players.
Well now, if JR is a “master of value assessment” it’s only because of what he’s learned this year.
Eric Staal...Team Canada first line
Dwyer, Sutter, Boychuk,Carson, Rodney, McBain, Samson, Borer, Terry, Bowman, Dalpe, and Dodge were all part of the Hurricanes system before this year. The 2005-2006 trades left some gaps and the younger players have development time. Accordingly, from my perspective the management of value assessment was occurring well before this season by Jim Rutherford. I think credit needs to go to Francis, Daniels, Rowe, Barrasso, Jason Karmanos, and McDonald, for the young talent in the organization.
The Hurricanes organization is very, very loyal to its players and that means the veteran players will be given every opportunity to succeed and to make themselves indispensable core players. The Hurricanes hold on to veterans somewhat longer than some teams. I personally think that is a positive thing for the organization, the team, and the fans; but it does mean we see some players kept when on a 100% objective basis, they probably should have been traded or waived. Maurice had an interesting comment early in the season. He stated that if you give up on one player on the team because he is not producing rather than trying to help him succeed, it makes all players on the team feel you would give up on them if they went through a tough patch.
Also, Jim Rutherford unloaded the contracts of veterans whose contracts were vastly beyond their productivity: (a) A. Ward, (b) Wallin, © Walker, and (d) Yelle (even though his was a minimum salary. Cullen was somewhat over-priced on value assessment because other players with much smaller salaries and a higher long term upside are available in the system and on the team. Corvo is a closer call on value assessment because experienced puck moving defensemen are hard to find and therefore are expensive. Pothier has done a great job for the Hurricanes in a similar role.
Do you think Tlusty is NHL ready??
"If me and King Kong went into an alley, only one of us would come out. And it wouldn't be the monkey."
"I don't really trust a sane person."
"I never met a man I didn't want to fight." The one and only Lyle Alzado
Yes, I think Tlusty is NHL ready as long as the Hurricanes don’t put huge scoring expectations on him. It wouldn’t be the worst thing ever if he played some games next season in Albany; but my suspicion is that Tlusty will have a spot at Carolina when the season begins. He’s had some injuries recently and I am not certain when he returns.
AD
i agree with you 1000% with what you said and especailly about Tlusty & Pogge…Tlusty will be competing for a spot on the canes 2nd line…and i feel and have said that Pogge needs an extensive visit and work out session or 3 in the Tom Barrasso goalie boot camp…I like how Boychuk has fit in and isn’t afraid to get in there and mix it up and even said he appreciates the pointers and things Rod BrindAmour, LaRose and Cole have offered and suggested…good article sir…
Relax !! Even Micro Wave Popcorn takes time !! Go Canes !!

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