Canes' "Power Ranking" conundrum. From 10th to 28th.....

in the various "power rankings" so take your pick.  Yeah, these latest "Power Rankings" from the various experts are out and sometimes more than a few are out somewhere that I'm sure requires chemical helpers.

They range from a Power Ranking of 10th from <a href="http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/allan_muir/03/09/power.rankings/index.html" >Allan Muir on Sports Illustrated</a> here,  all the way down to 26th on several other lists (why are most of those Canadian or NE sites?) you can see the discrepancies.

Some split the difference like <a href="http://www.vancouversun.com/business/power+rankings+March/2658733/story.html">Elliott Pap</a> and give them an 18th Power Ranking.  Heck, even ESPN's Scott Burnside gives the Canes as <a href="http://espn.go.com/nhl/powerrankings">19th</a> Power Ranking.  Then you compare that to Robert Picarello of Fox Sports and his <a href="http://msn.foxsports.com/nhl/powerRankings">26th</a> place for them.

So what is the best way?  This would not just be for the Canes of course, but for all teams.

Obviously, the overall record counts but what about the times a team are hot and cold?  With what, 12 wins in 14 games, the Canes are playing tough.  Conversely, the Sabres at 3-5-2 of their last 10 or the Senators and their 5-4-1 with many of those losses AFTER the Olympic break aren't scaring too many other teams right now.

On the other hand, even other teams' blog sites are wary of facing the Canes.  "Playing with nothing holding them back", "Having the freedom to take confounding chances" and more are becoming the norm when referring to the Canes.

So what is my solution to the issue?  Complicated of course.  It's done in three different stages and each stage uses slightly different metrics.

The first stage is straight forward: You take all the Points Earned, add the Goals For and subtract out the goals against and the result is the "Relative Power Rank", RPR.  Or RPR = Points+GF-GA

The second stage is when all teams have played more than 30 games.  It uses a slightly different formula.  The first part is as above but you exclude the last 5 games played.  The second part is only counting the last 5 games the team has played.  The last 5 games are more important in determining how the team is playing now so the Points earned and the GF and GA of those are given twice weight as the earlier games.

RPR = (All games save the last 5 games)[Points+GF-GA] + 2*(Just the last 5 games)[Points+GF-GA]

The last stage is where we're at with all teams playing more than 55 games.  There are three parts to the formula, the last 5 games, the 10 games previous to the last 5 games (the 6 to 15 last games) and the first games minus the last 15.  The last 5 games are weighted 3 times, the previous 10 are weighted twice and the first games save the last 15 are normal.

RPR=(All games save the last 15)[Points+GF-GA] + 2*(last 6 to 15th games)[Points+GF-GA] + 3*(last 5 games)[Points+GF-GA]

Yeah, its a bit complex but I think that better describes what a team has done and what it is currently doing.  Of course, to give a better fit as not all teams play games as fast as others, if one team played 66 games and another just 62, divide each team by the number of games they've played and multiply each result by 64.  That would be the "Weighted Relative Power Ranking", or WRPR.

God I hate conference calls.