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2010 NHL First Round Mock Draft

Bob and I decided it would be fun to each do a first-round mock draft so that everyone can weigh in on our thoughts and compare and contrast what we come up with. Bob's will be up in the coming days. Last year, I had 25 of the 30 first-round picks who went in the first round (including seven drafted at the spot predicted, although some went to a different team). I will also have a Canes Country Draft Board — created from a formula that uses several sources and rankings  — some time next week.

For now, here's an educated guess at how I see Round 1 shaking down.

Star-divide

1. Edmonton Oilers — Taylor Hall, LW, Windsor (OHL): The Hall and Seguin debate has raged all year, but Edmonton will put an end to it by drafting the guy everyone has been waiting on for years. Plainly put, Hall’s a winner and the Oilers need to win again.

2. Boston Bruins (via Toronto) — Tyler Seguin, C, Plymouth (OHL): Quite the consolation prize for the B’s, Seguin joins an already stacked group of centers in Beantown. Could Boston move down if the price is right?

3. Florida Panthers — Cam Fowler, D, Windsor (OHL): The Panthers’ choice may be the hardest of the top three teams. Fowler, Gundbranson and Gormley all bring different things to the blueline, but it’s the American-born Fowler that has the most upside.

4. Columbus Blue Jackets — Erik Gundbranson, D, Kingston (OHL): Gundbranson will add grit and leadership to the Columbus defense, but he also has talent and size to go along with his intangibles. He may not have the offensive upside of Fowler or Gormley, but he makes up for it elsewhere.

5. New York Islanders — Nino Neiderreiter, RW, Portland (WHL): Outside of Kyle Okposo, the Isles are lacking physicality in their lineup. With Gundranson gone, New York decides that the Swiss power forward is their best bet to add some jam.

6. Tampa Bay Lightning — Brandon Gormley, D, Moncton (QMJHL): Gormley doesn’t stand out when watching him play, but his solid, all-around game will be an asset to any team, regardless of style. He played this season with QMJHL defenseman of the year David Savard, and could play with Victor Hedman down the road — scary for the rest of the Southeast.

7. Carolina Hurricanes — Brett Connolly, RW, Prince George (WHL): Yes, there have been injuries. But Connolly’s combination of size, scoring ability and smarts make him too good to pass up here. He would seemingly be a perfect fit next to Eric Staal, as both are not only scorers, but capable distributors of the puck.

8. Atlanta Thrashers — Mikael Granlund, C, HIFK (Finland): In size, Granlund is reminiscent of Thrashers forward Bryan Little. As far as skill, give Granlund the edge. He’s perhaps the most exciting player in the draft and would complement 2009 first rounder Evander Kane very well in Blueland.

9. Minnesota Wild — Ryan Johansen, C, Portland (WHL): A linemate of Neiderreiter, Johnasen would be a great addition to an otherwise shallow pool of centers in Minnesota. Several have compared him to a poor man’s Eric Staal.

10. New York Rangers — Derek Forbort, D, U.S. NTDP: A little bit of a project, but Forbert would add size to a Rangers prospects pool that leans more toward skill on defense. Not only is Forbert a physical force, but he has some offensive upside.

11. Dallas Stars — Jack Campbell, G, U.S. NTDP: They acquired and signed Kari Lehtonen to be Marty Turco’s replacement, but the cupboards are still pretty bare in net for the Stars. Enter Campbell, who has already proven to be a big-game goalie.

12.Anaheim Ducks — Emerson Etem, RW, Medicine Hat (WHL): The Ducks go with the in-state talent by selecting Long Beach native Etem. Committed and hard-working, Etem led all WHL rookies is scoring this past season.

13.Phoenix Coyotes (via Calgary) —Alexander Burmistrov, C, Barrie (OHL): He may not even be the best Russian-born forward in this year’s class, but the fact that he spent the entire season in North America gives him the nod as the first selected. He's immensely talented, but is only around 160 pounds when holding a five-pound weight.

14. St. Louis Blues — Jeff Skinner, RW, Kitchener (OHL): Skinner is an undersized but a lethal scorer. There are varied opinions about where he should be ranked in this year’s class: some have him in the top 10, others outside of the first round altogether. With Brad Boyes’ drop in production, the Blues lack an elite goal scorer, so Skinner makes sense here.

15. Boston Bruins — Austin Watson, LW, Peterborough (OHL): After going with Seguin at No. 2, the Bruins get all-around talent in Watson. A skilled penalty killer and hard worker, Watson gives Boston another character guy.

16. Ottawa Senators — Nick Bjugstad, C, Blaine H.S. (Minn.): Some have Bjugstad cracking the top 10, and the Senators would be thrilled to see him fall here. A bit of a project, Bjugstad — who is bound for the University of Minnesota — is big, talented and hard-working.

17. Colorado Avalanche — Vladimir Tarasenko, RW, Novosibirsk (KHL): If Tarasenko wasn’t playing in Russia — and signed for another year there — we’d be mentioning him much sooner. While not tall, he’s already stocky enough to play and compete with men in the KHL. He’s a dangerous offensive player that could be a steal here if he comes to North America.

18. Nashville Predators — Riley Sheahan, C, Notre Dame (CCHA): Sheahan’s small run-in with the law this spring could hurt his status, but the Predators would be wise to select him with their pick. He’s an all-around player who is sure to take care of his own end first, but is also creative offensively. Don't rule out Mark Pysyk here, since the Preds rarely pass on a defenseman they like.

19. Los Angeles Kings — Tyler Pitlick, C, Minnesota State (WCHA): Pitlick is actually somewhat reminiscent of the Kings’ first-round pick last year, Brayden Schenn. Both can play a skilled or power game and have the skills to put up points, but most importantly Pitlick shares Schenn’s compete level.

20. Pittsburgh Penguins — Mark Pysyk, D, Edmonton (WHL): Pysyk slide ends in Pittsburgh, where he’ll join Kris Letang and Alex Goligoski as part of the long-term solution to replace Sergei Gonchar. The Edmonton native is an elite skater and puck mover who is reliable in his own end.

21. Detroit Red Wings — Quinton Howden, LW, Moose Jaw (WHL): It's been a long time since the Wings chose this high. Howden fits the Detroit mold well. He’s a two-way forward who puts the team first and contributes in all three zones.

22.Phoenix Coyotes — Jon Merrill, D, U.S. NTDP: Merrill is pretty far along in his development considering he’s a defenseman. With Burmistrov chosen earlier, the Coyotes take the best defenseman left on the board and continue their recent history of drafting or acquiring University of Michigan — where Merrill is headed — products.

23. Buffalo Sabres — Brock Nelson, C, Warroad H.S. (Minn.): Maybe a bit of a reach here, but the Sabres need and want to add size at center and Nelson fills that need. With last year’s top pick Zach Kassian facing character questions, Buffalo goes with a solid player and citizen who is headed to North Dakota.

24. Atlanta Thrashers — Dylan McIlrath, D, Moose Jaw (WHL): With Granlund already in the fold, the Thrashers could be the first round’s big winner by getting McIlrath here. McIlrath is probably the most feared player in the draft and could be a fantastic complement to Zach Bogosian for years to come.

25. Vancouver Canucks — Jarred Tinordi, D, U.S. NTDP: Tinordi makes it back-to-back tough, physical defensemen. Tinordi, who is headed to Notre Dame, is a monster at 6-6, 200-plus pounds and can control a game in his own end.

26. Washington Capitals — Evgeny Kuznetsov, C, Chelyabinsk (KHL): The Capitals — we’ll call them Russia West — add even more talent by taking a chance on the talented center. A leader on the ice and a threat to score at all times, Kuznetsov would add even more top-end skill to Washington’s lineup.

27. Montreal Canadiens — Stanislav Galiev, RW, Saint John (QMJHL): The Moscow-born winger stays in Quebec by going to Montreal. He’s very skilled in the offensive zone but needs work in his own end.

28. San Jose Sharks — Ludvig Rensfeldt, LW, Brynas Jr. (Sweden): The Sharks have had past success with big forwards, and Rensfeldt is the latest. He’s a deadly shooter on the wing — who would thrive with, say, Joe Thornton centering him — and his size and will takes him to all areas of the offensive zone.

29. Anaheim Ducks (via Philadelphia) — John McFarland, LW, Sudbury (OHL): The Ducks expected this pick to be a lot higher. With Etem selected earlier, the Ducks can roll the dice on McFarland, who has had his character questioned by some. He’s an great skater who plays with an edge, but commitment and consistency are big red flags.

30. Chicago Blackhawks — Kirill Kabanov, LW, Moncton (QMJHL) Kabanov joining the Wildcats was a huge plus heading into last season, but the fact he left Moncton, then was kicked off the Russian under-18 team. On talent alone, he’s a top-five guy, but the erratic season and Russian factor give Chicago the opportunity to take a chance on him.

Some names (of many!) to consider for Carolina's three second-round picks and beyond:

  • Jason Zucker, LW, U.S. NTDP: Zucker is a forechecking machine who was part of the Team USA's shocking upset of Canada at the U20 World Championships this past winter. Oh, and he played midget hockey for the Detroit-based Compuware team owned by Peter Karmanos.
  • Beau Bennett, RW, Penticon (BCHL): Bennett comes from the same team that brought Zac Dalpe into the Carolina fold. A skilled winger, Bennett — as well as Zucker — is poised to join the University of Denver next season.
  • Patrik Nemeth, D, AIK (Sweden): A strong blueliner from Sweden, Nemeth could max out as a shutdown defender.
  • Stephen Silas, D, Bellville (OHL): Silas is a steady defenseman in the Glen Wesley (Carolina, not Boston, version) mold. 
  • Brad Ross, LW, Portland (WHL): Ross is perhaps the best agitator in the draft, the kind of player Carolina could use to get under the skin of opponents. He also has some offensive ability and played with Neiderreiter and Johansen with the Winter Hawks.
  • Teemu Pulkkinen, RW, Jokerit (Finland): Pulkkinen could be the latest Finn to join the Carolina organization. He's a gifted scorer and also willing to engage physically despite being just 5-10.
  • Patrick McNally, D, Milton H.S. (Mass.): A raw defenseman — like last year's second rounder Brian Dumoulin, though with a different skill set — who is set to go to Harvard in the fall.

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Great Work

Cory,

  Great work on the Mock Draft. I suspect you will be very, very close to the actual draft. Will you be posting a second round and third round mock draft?

by abramsdoug on Jun 15, 2010 9:40 PM EDT reply actions  

He really whet your appetite, I can see. Is it October yet?!

It's gonna be a long summer.

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 15, 2010 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

I will have a draft board next week … I think I will list at least 50 players, but perhaps more. We’ll see what time permits.

by Cory Lavalette on Jun 15, 2010 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

That being said, the board I’ll have in front of me on draft day will list more than a hundred players.

by Cory Lavalette on Jun 15, 2010 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Where will said draft board be at and how do I get a front row seat?

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 7:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

I’ll post it here, plus be updating my “Best Available Player” list during the draft in the open thread.

by Cory Lavalette on Jun 16, 2010 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

Rudino’s better have wifi then.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

Excellent Cory – you’re the man on this. What are you doing next Friday night (the 25th)? And Saturday?

It's gonna be a long summer.

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 15, 2010 9:43 PM EDT reply actions  

Well, I’m on kid duty Friday, so I’ll be watching from home and likely online once the little ones are in bed. Saturday is still up in the air. But I’ll be watching.

by Cory Lavalette on Jun 15, 2010 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Kirill Kabanov

  One of the most interesting picks for the draft will be Kabanov. Talent-wise he is top five; but will teams risk picking him in the first round when there are some very solid players left in the first round? The good news for the Canes is that if teams like Kabanov and McFarland in the first round, there will be some excellent choices in the second round.

by abramsdoug on Jun 15, 2010 9:47 PM EDT reply actions  

I can see the Caps choosing Kabanov, they don’t seem to mind the questionable characters of their players… Plus he’s also Russian. Nuff said. Lol

by webbo26 on Jun 16, 2010 6:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

Whether Carolina moves up the draft board or not, it looks like they’re going to get a fine player either way. Because the draft is so deep, it looks like they really can’t go wrong with whom they select.

by DesertCaniac on Jun 15, 2010 9:53 PM EDT reply actions  

Nice job Cory, tough act to follow!

Editing Manager of CanesCountry.com

by Bob Wage on Jun 15, 2010 10:08 PM EDT reply actions  

Cory and I have talked about this draft a lot and he and I are both fans of Connolly and would love to see him along side Staal. When this kid is healthy, he has one of the best skill sets. One of the steals of the draft could be McIlrath, this kid is just nasty, within the rules of the game, and has some offensive talent. He’ll probably fall in the mid 20’s as Cory has predicted but he’s the kind of player a team could jump on a bit early.

Oh and Cory, I’m coming over Friday to watch the draft right??

by sticker on Jun 15, 2010 10:14 PM EDT reply actions  

Great effort Cory

But and even though Connolly is good and may have more solid & better stats, i feel the JR may shy away from him…why ? in one word…Ruutu…I love ( almost as much as LTD does) Ruutu…but with all that has been going On doe JR really or can he rwally afford to take a chance…Again I am NOT against the guy…but i am looking at this from a dollar & cents perspective…is or will he be 1000% healthy when he reports IF the Canes draft him ? but i still feel that “nino” is da one !! gee i better quit here as my grand children with no dogs are stiring….they will be leaving to go back to spokane on tonight…sigh…and i miss them already…always a thrill never a chore…a bit trying at times…but never a chore…

And if it Aint Hockey,It Aint Nothin !!
Nino is The One !

by CaniacSteve on Jun 16, 2010 7:05 AM EDT reply actions  

I agree that Connolly is a risk, but the Isles could very well have an interest in Niederreiter (based on what they’ve said they’re looking for) and if he’s off the board I think there’s a drop off after Connolly and he’s worth the risk.

by Cory Lavalette on Jun 16, 2010 8:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

FWIW it seems from scouring the internet the last few days that Connolly’s draft stock is rising. I think most everyone is coming to the same conclusion as you have Cory. There is a talent drop off after Connolly and teams looking for first line forward talent may be more willing to roll the dice on him then taking a guy they expect to be second line at best and praying he beats expectations. I’m really starting to worry that Columbus will take Connolly at #4 especially now that it’s known that Tarasenko is signed to the KHL for next season.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed, been getting the same sentiment, Cowen last year somewhat proves that someone will take a crack at him sooner than later.

by Go_Shelf on Jun 16, 2010 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

Connolly and the Injury Risk Factor

  I am totally on board with Cory. The reward for Connolly is so high if he is healthy that the risk is worth it. Based on pure talent alone, in my view there are four forwards whose present talent talent rises about the rest: Hall, Seguin, Connolly, and Kabanov. Kabanov has his tendencies to appear more of the prima donna kind of player than the Hurricanes typically choose. Hall and Seguin are one/two in some order. Connolly has the risk of past injuries, but could be exactly what the Hurricanes need long term to fully unleash E. Staal.

by abramsdoug on Jun 16, 2010 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

Excellent!!

I gotta think you’re right-on with almost every pick! I’m scared w/ connolly, and i’m hoping we move up for a D-man, but if we stay at #7 i’d prefer Granlund, or Johansen (50/50). The second round guys are all in the ballpark, and i’d add Faulk, Pickard, Coyle, Petrovic, and MacKenzie to your list!!

by randycane on Jun 16, 2010 8:32 AM EDT reply actions  

Interesting, looks like you used team needs a little more than best player on the board, which usually isn’t the case in the 1st round. Obviously I’d love Connolly at #7, I think you have Neiderreiter too high, Pysyk & McIlrath too low, otherwise very good. It’s almost here.

by Go_Shelf on Jun 16, 2010 9:06 AM EDT reply actions  

Neiderreiter is definitely higher than he’ll be on the draft board I’ll do, and Pysyk will be higher on the board (which is why I mentioned him slipping). But I think teams do draft more for need once you get out of the so-called “can’t miss” guys.

by Cory Lavalette on Jun 16, 2010 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

Pysyk??

I know he’s supposed to be a good skater, but RLR has him rated at #41. There comment is:
“Could run for President of Candyassistan – and win”
Not what i’d look for in a D-man!!!!!!!

by randycane on Jun 16, 2010 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

That’s the only rating he has that’s out of line. Most of these guys have at least one service that rates them somewhere far off as the rest. Most have Pysyk in the mid-teens, CSS has him in the top 10. Only RLR has him that late. Same with Skinner — he’s top 15 by a few, 25th by another, then CSS has him out of the first round altogether.

by Cory Lavalette on Jun 16, 2010 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

Skinner and the Draft

   The very wide range of opinions about Skinner is interesting to me. I agree that he seems to be a first round pick, but a somewhat later first round pick. I think the lack of physicality in his play perhaps concerns some pro scouts.

by abramsdoug on Jun 16, 2010 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Lack of Phys

In a D-man i think that this s/b a concern!!, don’t you?

by randycane on Jun 16, 2010 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

i’m talking Pysyk…

by randycane on Jun 16, 2010 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

Ya I know and no because while he’s not a big hitter like Gudbranson, he’s very effective at separating guys from the puck which typically means it’s hard to possess the puck for long periods of time in the offensive zone when he’s on the ice. A taller slower version of Duncan Keith, not the best comparison.

by Go_Shelf on Jun 16, 2010 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

Physicality and Skinner

   The knock on Skinner that I keep reading is that (1) he is not as good a skater as the scouts would like, (2) he doesn’t get into the physical areas of the ice, and (3) he isn’t willing to play his size in terms of defensive play. I do think the NHL scouts want to see forwards who have the will to go into the nasty areas and get their goals. If as an 18 year old there is some degree of hesitation to take the pain to get a goal, then when placed upon some mean men in the NHL, the player’s effectiveness could be limited.

  All that being said, I get the feeling the Hurricanes find a lot to like in Skinner; and he is definitely on their radar screen.

by abramsdoug on Jun 16, 2010 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

Seeing as Skinner scored 70 goals in 84 games last season in the OHL, I’m going to venture a guess that he is willing to take some pain to score.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

ya, that’s not far off a goal a game pace over 84 games = not a perimeter player.

by Go_Shelf on Jun 16, 2010 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

Skating and defensive play can be worked on (maybe not so much physicality) however scoring ability like that can never be learned.

I’m hoping and praying we either get a top-4 D or potential 1st line Winger out of this Draft. If Hall, Seguin, Connolly, Gudbranson, Gormley, and Fowler are the top-6 (worst case scenario) then I would have to go with either Tarasenko or Skinner and I really hope that the Canes feel the same way.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

I am only reporting what pro scouts have said and it comes from a number of different scouting services. I doubt they don’t know what playing a tough inside game means; but I have no dog in that fight one way or the other. I haven’t seen videos of Skinner playing as far as I can recall.

  In general, I question whether the Hurricanes need more 5’10" 185 to 190 lb forwards unless the player is incredibly fast, quick, and has a cannon for a shot. Skinner seems to be a smaller, less physical, less intense version of Bowman. If I had to choose between Bowman and Skinner based on having seen many videos of Bowman in games at both the NHL and AHL level, I would choose Bowman over Skinner.

by abramsdoug on Jun 16, 2010 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

Why? Bowman’s a 3rd round pick. Almost all the players in the ‘07 draft picked 20 or lower are all played in the NHL last season. So you’re saying that 72nd pick’s probably better than a top 20 pick since 72nd pick is taller?

by Go_Shelf on Jun 16, 2010 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

Bowman

  What I am saying is that Bowman has earned the respect of the Hurricanes organization due to his play; and that although he was a third round pick, he has shown he is a much more complete player than the Hurricanes predicted. Bowman is a natural scorer who is also physical. He has played some games in the NHL and during that short stint he had one game in which he scored two goals.

  Therefore, what I conclude is that the Hurricanes are probably not likely to take Skinner as their #7 pick because he does not fill a role for the Hurricanes to such a degree that the Hurricanes should take him rather than a player like Johansen. There are plenty of third round draft choices who beat out first round picks. I also am convinced the Hurricanes are looking to get bigger, stronger, and faster at forward. There is too much risk with Skinner that he would not be substantially better than the forwards already on the team; and the Hurricanes need to make certain their #7 pick is a player with a long and successful career with the Hurricanes.

by abramsdoug on Jun 16, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

Skinner is among Hall and Tarasenko as the best goal scorer in this entire Draft. Bowman had nowhere near that acclaim, not then and not now compared to his Draft class.

I’d take Skinner in a heartbeat over Bowman.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

Actually, Bowman’s scouting report from 2007 (from ISS):

A gifted scorer with a big time shot. Has top end speed. Needs to improve consistency and add grit. Has natural goal-scoring skill. As season progressed, he improved defensively. Could be a draft-day steal.

He was also listed as having the third hardest shot in the draft.

by Cory Lavalette on Jun 16, 2010 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

Just to stir the pot a bit, but didn’t Paradis also have one of the hardest shots in his draft class?

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think you would be hard pressed to find a report saying that Skinner will be a draft day steal in the 3rd Round.

I like our prospects too, but to say that Bowman > Skinner is a little overzealous in my opinion.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

Bowman versus Skinner

I must not have been clear and I apologize. I agree that if the choice were between taking Bowman as he is now or Skinner, that at least 90% of all GMs would take Skinner. My point is different. I believe that the choice for the Hurricanes is whether to take Skinner at #7 or another player. I believe that the fact the Hurricanes have Bowman is yet another reason why the Hurricanes will choose another player with their #7 pick rather than Skinner.

   I do think the Hurricanes like Skinner and may well like him enough to trade up to a later first round pick to get him.

by abramsdoug on Jun 16, 2010 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Personally I don’t think Skinner necessarily deserves a top-10 selection either… But I also think the forward talent drops of considerably after Seguin, Hall, Connolly, Granlund, and Tarasenko. It shows in the wildly different mock drafts that every organization is putting out.

I don’t think taking Niederreiter or Johansen at #7 is very justified either because of the fact that someone like Riley Sheahan (probably going 20-30) is very similar in talent level. Same with Austin Watson, Emerson Etem, ect.

One of the big reasons that I am a proponent of trading up, either to grab Seguin or one of the top-3 D. If we can’t have that then I hope Connolly falls to us (very sketchy odds). Since I doubt we will Draft Russian (could be a huge mistake), I agree they would probably pass on Tarasenko. If Connolly is off the board and we go anti-Russian, I’d be all for Granlund but Skinner would be next on my list.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

I know .. i’m just saying that people saw Bowman’s potential.

FWIW, ISS’s top five list for best scorer:
1. Hall
2. Skinner
3. Rensfeldt
4. Pulkkinen
5. Tarasenko

by Cory Lavalette on Jun 16, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Interesting, Pulkkinen will be a great 2nd Round pick if we can manage it.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

No, I’m not saying the Canes should, he seems he’ll probably go 15-20.
Bowman’s played 9 NHL games since his draft in ‘07, you’re still hard pressed to tell anyone that drafting him has been successful.

by Go_Shelf on Jun 16, 2010 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

There’s no doubt his drafting has been successful b/c as of right now he’s an asset that would fetch more than what it took to get him. That doesn’t make him a successful NHLer at this point, but he has justified his selection in the third round.

by Cory Lavalette on Jun 16, 2010 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

I’ll qualify: 9 NHL games since his draft year does not make him an NHL success. Yes, there are low expectations for 3rd round picks and maybe 2nd round picks depending who you ask.

by Go_Shelf on Jun 16, 2010 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

Bowman and Success

  You might want to ask Ron Francis what he thinks of Bowman. I think Bowman was a steal and yes, I think the Hurricanes will pick somebody whom they believe will fill a spot that is not being filled. I believe the Hurricanes organization does seem to like Skinner; but in the end, I still believe the Hurricanes will have a list of choices that is ordered, Connolly, Johansen, Niederreiter. I would not be at all surprised if the Hurricanes packaged a deal to get a late first round pick; and if Skinner is available that they will take Skinner in the late first round. I don’t see Skinner as a #7 pick.

by abramsdoug on Jun 16, 2010 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

Also AD

Bowman played consistanly the same way he does now when he was with Spokane…the only reason i felt he was chsen in the 3rd round was because many of the “scouts” didn’t think he had the stuff to tough it out for the long haul…well time and experience has proved his detractors wrong haven’t they ?

And if it Aint Hockey,It Aint Nothin !!
Nino is The One !

by CaniacSteve on Jun 16, 2010 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Very True

Bowman has succeeded at every level. I wonder how many prospects wound up with a two goal game in their first nine NHL games?

by abramsdoug on Jun 16, 2010 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes, but there are also prospects like Kurka and Surma that scored their first NHL goal in their first NHL game back in the infamous ‘02-’03 season…and were never heard from again.

Once the initial adrenalin fades, the real evaluation process begins.

by Elsker on Jun 16, 2010 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

If you think position drafted means much you should look up Datsyuk or Zetterburg or Brett Hull’s draft position.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

It does mean a lot, those are rare cases, they get it right more often than not.

by Go_Shelf on Jun 16, 2010 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

Draft position means what scouts thought of players at age 18. That’s it. You can’t simply say player Y is better than Player X because Player Y was drafted ahead of Player X.

Check out the 1993 draft here. It’s headlined by Alexandre Daigle. I don’t know how many people in the first round I’d say he’s better than and he was first overall.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

We could start picking up every 5 foot 5 inch Free Agent and hope they would turn into Martin St. Louis while we are at it.

To be fair the scouting, media availability, and the Draft in general has advanced leaps and bounds since 1993.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not saying it hasn’t. Just saying that you can’t compare one player to another and say one is better simply because they were drafted higher.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

I understand that, Jason Bonsignore, etc. But you can though, what’s the point of the draft. History’s shown that the closer you draft to #1 the higher probably you have of getting an impact player. I posted a copper n blue article last week that did a decent job of proving that. I know the stories about Datsyk and Zetterberg, etc. but they really don’t happen that often.

by Go_Shelf on Jun 16, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

In the end though, it’s only probability. Players have to play, and that’s the only way to compare one to another.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

There’s a pretty strong correlation, especially if you’re comparing top 5 players to bottom 5 players in the 1st round, look at the last 10 drafts. You go into the 2nd, 3rd, 4th round, and so on the number of impact NHL’ers really drops off.

by Go_Shelf on Jun 16, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m not denying that players at the top of a draft tend to do better. The statistics bare that out. But that is a generalization comparing one group (top 5 picks) to another (bottom five picks).

You cannot compare two individual players on that basis though. The only way to compare players is to actually compare them. Again, draft position means nothing in a head to head comparison. Players under-preform and over-preform draft positioning.

By it’s very nature a sample size helps to diminish the impact of outliers. This is why a sample size must be sufficiently large enough compared to the population to be statistically significant. A sample size does not eliminate outliers.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agree, I know you can’t do it when comparing 5 to 7 or 15 to 18 but you’re most likely getting a better player at 15 then 72.

by Go_Shelf on Jun 16, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

But only most likely. That’s the point I’m trying to make here. The only way to compare to players is to compare them. You can’t just use draft position as short hand.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

They did? I think you need to look at the top 20 picked again. No one from 12-20 played nine games in the NHL this year, and only Sutter, Voracek, Gagner, Van Riemsdyk and Kane were truly NHLers this year from the top 20.

by Cory Lavalette on Jun 16, 2010 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

My bad, will take more time to do research going forward. In the first round I’d also add Perron, Couture had decent seasons.

by Go_Shelf on Jun 16, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

What’s RLR – NHL CSS has him at #8. Pysyk’s a kid who does all the things dmen are supposed to do well: he skates well, makes great 1st passes, he’s not overly physical but is effective. I’ve talked to a number of people who have seen him play and the thing that comes up most is how smooth he is and how composed he plays. He’s very low maintenance and you typically know what you’re going to get out of him – solid consistent play.

by Go_Shelf on Jun 16, 2010 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed, which is why I wouldn’t put him in the top 8, certainly not ahead of Connolly. Based on what I read about his perfomance at the combine, he definitely needs to step up his off-ice workout routine and start preparing to be a pro. He may be dominating in the WHL but when he gets to AHL and NHL it’s another level of competition, it does not seem he’s mentally invested yet for what it takes. I’d be reluctant to grab him in the top 8 knowing he could be at least 2 years off.

by Go_Shelf on Jun 16, 2010 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

I agree, I think the only way we are getting Connolly is if someone goes for Granlund, Tarasenko, or if the Lightning pick Johansen. Neiderreiter’s combine results will definitely hurt his Draft spot, nobody wants to take a chance on a guy that doesn’t seem 150% committed.

I don’t know that Tarasenko being signed next year will hurt him that much, especially compared to Connolly who is certainly a year off also. Tarasenko had mirror stats to that of a little known Alex Ovechkin in the KHL during his Draft year. Russian or not, he seems very intended on playing in the NHL and I really hope if we stay pat at #7 and Connolly goes before that we will pick him over Neiderreiter. I’d put the forwards in these tiers:

Cory, I really like the shout-out to Pulkkinen… I’m a big fan and I think he could be a serious steal with one of our 2nd Round picks. Finnish, a lethal scorer (said to have the best one-timer in the Draft), considered to be a top-10 pretty much unanimously before he struggled with injury and team issues this year. I think his performance at the U-18 tournament shows he could easily be the real deal.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

Forward tiers:

Tier 1: Hall and Seguin
Tier 2: Connolly, Tarasenko, Granlund
Tier 3: Johansen, Skinner, Kabanov, Niederreiter (barely after Combine)
Tier 4: Etem, Burminstrov, Watson, Sheahan, Bjugstad

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

geee

after the first round yesterday…we all seem to have much more to contribute !!! And i just had a good laugh as i heard a comment about the fans who were cheering for the North Korean team…were nothing more than paid Chinese actors to cheer for the North Korean team…gee who said “out sourcing” was a dying art form ?? hehehe

And if it Aint Hockey,It Aint Nothin !!
Nino is The One !

by CaniacSteve on Jun 16, 2010 10:12 AM EDT reply actions  

whooops i was talking about the World Cup hehehe

And if it Aint Hockey,It Aint Nothin !!
Nino is The One !

by CaniacSteve on Jun 16, 2010 10:14 AM EDT reply actions  

I saw that game.

They gave Brazil a tough game, but goalie let in a bad angle shot!!

by randycane on Jun 16, 2010 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

+2

And if it Aint Hockey,It Aint Nothin !!
Nino is The One !

by CaniacSteve on Jun 16, 2010 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Tony MacDonald spoke to Mike Maniscalco on the Buzz this morning. less than 10 minutes. The last few are the best.

At the very end MacDonald says the Canes have now settled on who they want at #7. They just hope he’s available.

It's gonna be a long summer.

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 16, 2010 10:21 AM EDT reply actions  

Yeah that doesn’t sound very helpful… They could have settled on Seguin at #7, doesn’t mean he will be there.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

Awww Cory

you’re teasing us again…hehehe

And if it Aint Hockey,It Aint Nothin !!
Nino is The One !

by CaniacSteve on Jun 16, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Actually, he didn’t exactly say they know who they want at #7.

He paused for a moment and said they know who they want and that it remains to be seen if things will work out (or something like that).

I immediately thought “well, that certainly leaves all options open”. I was actually encouraged that trade talks may be underway.

by Elsker on Jun 16, 2010 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

I like this a lot better haha

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

Misinformation??

I’m hoping they’re trying to mislead teams and are REALLY going to trade up!!

by randycane on Jun 16, 2010 10:27 AM EDT reply actions  

I think that’s in the back of many of our minds. Nine more days.Great drama. Pretty exciting.

It's gonna be a long summer.

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 16, 2010 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

The ONLY way I’m going to be seriously upset by this Draft is if they pick Neiderreiter at #7…

I can only conclude then with all certainty that is what is going to happen.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

Aww Jussi

why to sour grapes on Nino ?/ heck he could turn out to just as good a prospect as did Tlusty is for us now…after all Jussi…it’s only Hockey…right ?? hehehe…But seriously i understand you point…some don’t think the kid will ever make in the NHl and will prpbably a career AHL .. but again.Jussi…only time will tell…enjoy the rest of you day

And if it Aint Hockey,It Aint Nothin !!
Nino is The One !

by CaniacSteve on Jun 16, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Misinformation or Accurate Information

  I had been reading and hearing that the Hurricanes intend to stay put. I don’t have a clue whom their preferred pick is. My hunch is that it is Johansen – just a total hunch based on all the various comments I’ve read and the fact that Johansen is a big, strong, natural leader who throws down the gloves to protect his teammates. I’m think they see Johansen as a possible second line center who can play third line, but who also could play second line in some years with Sutter moving to first line to free up Staal to be a goal scoring machine. In other words, they want the leadership and flexibility of having Johansen. With Staal, Sutter, Dalpe, Johansen, Jokinen, Ruutu, Dwyer, Tlusty, and Bowman, they have flexibility at center as injuries crop up.

by abramsdoug on Jun 16, 2010 10:36 AM EDT reply actions  

Butts in the Seats at the RBC

  Most complicated situations have a simple theme underlying the complexity. For Peter Karmanos the simple and sole need at the moment is more butts in the seats of the RBC. Whatever happens with the draft, the Hurricanes need to have an on-ice product that brings in more fans to watch the game.

  Winning brings fans. Exciting young stars bring fans into the RBC. In the end, the steps Jim Rutherford takes this season will have that underlying theme well in mind.

by abramsdoug on Jun 16, 2010 12:23 PM EDT reply actions  

Agree 100%, with the budget PK has given to JR it’s not going to be easy, he has a lot less options that for sure and has to bet on a lot more uncertainty with the younger players.

by Go_Shelf on Jun 16, 2010 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Winning brings fans, however usually cutting the payroll by 25% doesn’t bring winning. As Go_Shelf said, betting that untested youth will carry this team is pretty risky.

In my opinion, the best business plan for putting butts in the seats would be to trade up (at any reasonable cost) to bring in an impact player through the Draft. Seguin or Fowler I think would be the type of player that would bring a new level of young, exciting, offensive hype to the team. It would also be likely the cheapest means possible of achieving this ultimate goal of filling the arena.

We have the need, we have the assets to make it happen, now will they be smart enough to do it.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

And what better way to kick off the Canes youth-movement. It would really solidify for the fans the direction they are trying to head in.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agree on Winning...

but we also need some character guys that make the news and stimulate interest from casual fans (e.g. Commodore did, Georges Laraque could…okay, bad example)….our “youth movement” all appear and act the same…..

by WStout on Jun 16, 2010 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Don’t forget about the All-Star Game this season. That will help to reduce the flight of fans if the team is bad.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Youth is

NOT a "cure all’ for the Canes or any other team …

And if it Aint Hockey,It Aint Nothin !!
Nino is The One !

by CaniacSteve on Jun 16, 2010 12:56 PM EDT reply actions  

Wow, Gudbranson at #5. First time I’ve seen him lower than 4.

http://www.prosportsblogging.com

by Great Ice-Pectations on Jun 16, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good job on the draft. Have you compared your mock draft to the Hockeys’ Future mock draft. Do you think Florida is going for Connolly in the NHL draft?

by abramsdoug on Jun 16, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why did you take Nino over Granlund and Tarasenko? I’m assuming the Russia issues for Tarasenko, but would like to hear your comments on Nino vs. Granlund.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

I like Granlund, but the combo of small stature and Niederreiter’s WJC play had me lean toward Nino, who I think fits need a little more. It’s close though.

by Cory Lavalette on Jun 16, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Cory, I am with you. If I were given those top #6 picks, I’d go either with Niederreiter or Johansen. If Niederreiter is ultimately a replacement for Erik Cole then it’s hard to disagree with your selection.

by abramsdoug on Jun 16, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Replacement for Erik Cole? I think a sack of potatoes could replace Cole’s sorry arse. At least the sack of potatoes could maybe rebound a puck into the net for a single playoff goal.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Niederreiter and Cole

If Jim Rutherford’s conclusions come close to yours, he will take Niederreiter unless Connolly is available. For Cole’s lack of ability to finish and particularly to pound rebounds into the net, Cole provides speed and physicality. If Cole doesn’t measure up by the trade deadline, he’ll be traded. I think it is that simple. On a team with a tight grip on salary expense, prime candidates out the door are highly paid veteran forwards who don’t produce goals and who have a history of missing twenty or more games per season. I hope Cole proves his doubters wrong this season and that he plays 75 games at minimum and has at least 20 goals.

by abramsdoug on Jun 16, 2010 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Don’t get me wrong when I say this. I like Nino, but I’m still of the mind set that the group after Hall, Seguin, Connolly, Gudbranson, Fowler, Gormley, and Tarasenko is all pretty even. I’m talking Nino, Granlund, Johansen, Frobort, etx, they all seem to have about the same talent level. If only Tarasenko is available out of that first group at 6, I’d just as soon trade down and hopefully get a late first rounder to get someone like Tinordi.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Can’t argue with that … I’d say the dropoff is somewhere before or after Nino.

by Cory Lavalette on Jun 16, 2010 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

It makes me wish the team would have lost a game or two more and were drafting fourth or third.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sigh… We are going to end up with the Swiss Miss. I was really hoping him being so out of shape at the combine would be a red flag for the Canes, but I’m sure it will happen anyway.

I’d take Tarasenko, Skinner, or Granlund over Nino.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

That mock Draft looks almost exactly like I would guess by the way… including the Canes taking Nino, which is why it is so depressing.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t think Nino is a bad pick at all. He’s the youngest player in the draft and just qualified in age by 1 week. 36 goals in his rookie year is nothing to sneeze at and he plays physical for a 17 year old playing against older kids. Hitting on the ice is all about timing and he’s got it. His conditioning will come.

If he was a week younger he would have to wait until next year and could very well pot 40 plus goals and be the number one pick in next year’s draft.

Some services have him slotted higher than 7.

Editing Manager of CanesCountry.com

by Bob Wage on Jun 16, 2010 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

95th in % body fat at the combine screams that his work ethic is far from where it should be. Second to last in the VO2 endurance testing compounds that even further.

Work ethic and attitude can’t really be changed. He is obviously not 100% dedicated to his workouts and getting better/stroner physically. I just don’t see any difference between him and say, Jeff Skinner, Johansen, Austin Watson, Burminstrov, Emerson Etem, Riley Sheahan. If we were going to take one of these kids we might as well just trade up to 12-17ish and get two of them.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

And I have never seen a site that has him ranked higher than #6 and even those are the sites that are heavily biased against Russians and injury risks.

I’m also far from impressed with his WJC, I’m sure any single one of the top-50 players could have done as well as he if they played on a horrible Swiss squad whose game-plan was “OMG, PASS NINO THE PUCK!!”

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

a horrible Swiss squad which beat Russia, came in 4th, the best they ever finished. Apparently, according to you, all on Nino’s back?

all the more reason to draft him.

Editing Manager of CanesCountry.com

by Bob Wage on Jun 16, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Is beating Russia ever that impressive? Look at the Olympics, they had an amazing team on paper but can’t ever put together a cohesive effort because Russian players playing in Russia have personal problems with those that go to America.

I’m not doubting Nino is a 1st Round pick, he definitely deserves to be… He was by far the best player on the Swiss squad. This is the reason their whole game-plan was to get him the puck. If he was on the Canadian squad, would he have been nearly as impressive? No, because they wouldn’t be dishing him the puck every single chance they got.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wouldn’t the opposition be solely focused on him as well then?

by Cory Lavalette on Jun 16, 2010 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think in a small tournament like that you can’t really focus on one player. Rarely are players on the teams actual teammates and they have almost no knowledge of how the other teams are going to pair their lines, who has chemistry together, who is going to be hot, ect.

Switzerland being considered a non-competitive team worked even further to their advantage in that regard.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

I dunno … I saw the U.S. target Taylor Hall quite a bit.

by Cory Lavalette on Jun 16, 2010 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Taylor Hall has been the unanimous #1 Overall pick for the past 2 years.

Niederreiter might as well have been a nobody before the tournament, most Draft rankings had him going late first to mid second Round before the WJC.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not too many Swiss players are on the radar until they come to N.A. to compete, which he did to start this year. The WJCs is a huge measuring stick for the draft-eligible players. Seguin was a relative unknown heading into this season, too … certainly not considered a top-10 guy, forget about someone competing with Hall for No. 1.

by Cory Lavalette on Jun 16, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Do you see 1st line Winger potential in Niederreiter?

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Personally, I don’t think he’s a first line winger. But that doesn’t make him a failure at No. 7, if that’s who the Canes get. Brandon Sutter is probably not a No. 1 center either.

by Cory Lavalette on Jun 16, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

I should clarify … he could play on the first line maybe. But I don’t see him as an elite power forward, someone you build a line around. But how many teams have elite guys at all three forward spots on their first line? Not many.

by Cory Lavalette on Jun 16, 2010 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

No, that is what I meant. I agree he certainly wouldn’t be a failure, I just think if we aren’t going to get a potential 1st line Winger then we should try to fill our immediate needs at Defense instead.

Very few in the Capped NHL can afford 3 elite players on their 1st line, but I also think that Staal needs and deserves SOMEONE to play with. Being that we will forever be too cheap to afford someone like that, it seems the Draft is our only option.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

But I also have the (very disputable) opinion that Tarasenko or Skinner have the raw skill and potential to be 1st line Wingers.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with Tarasenko, I just don’t know that he’ll ever play over here in the US, or if he does, if he would be willing to play with the Hurricanes.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Worst of Worst Scenarios

The pain of the 2009-2010 season is bearable to me only because of the influx of talent from the 2010 draft. If the Hurricanes picked Tarasenko and he decided he liked the big money of the KHL, the Hurricanes would be in a world of hurt. I am not suggesting I know the answer to that question; but I hope against hope that they have an answer if they are considering Tarasenko.

  Whatever happens, the Hurricanes need a top talent out of the 2009-2010 first round pick.

by abramsdoug on Jun 16, 2010 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

From what I have seen it seems like he is really genuine in his intentions of coming to the USA to play with the best. It seems he really looks up to Ovechkin, trying to mold himself in his image.

Plus in recent years more and more Russian Draftees have been coming to the NHL. There is always exceptions, but the stigma seems to be lessening.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nothing he’s said worries me too much yet. Him being contracted to his KHL team for next season isn’t that surprising either. That said, until I see a young Russian player on the Canes I’m going to think it isn’t going to happen, just to be cautious.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

What 17 year old do you know of that has the work ethic needed to succeed in the NHL? Less than stellar work ethics go with the territory of drafting teenagers.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Someone who knows they are going to be a professional athlete and takes pride in constantly working out and improving themselves for that trade? I don’t know, the 94 players in from of him that had better body fat % or the 98 players with better endurance?

Try telling that to Tyler Seguin.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

If he’s truly a slug, he won’t go in the top 10. We’ll see.

Editing Manager of CanesCountry.com

by Bob Wage on Jun 16, 2010 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Niederreiter will go in the top 10

It is true that Niederreiter’s body fat was too high for him to be fully appreciate the work it takes to be a top NHL player; and it is true that his cardiovascular conditioning also was subpar. As the father of four boys all of whom played sports and none of whom worked out the way they should, I think C-Leaguer has it right. Most young men that age are somewhat clueless about the work ethic; and unless they are from hockey families like the Sutters, Staals, and Seguins, they would have little in their background to push them. I have zero problem with the Canes taking Niederreiter, even though I personally lean more toward Johansen.

by abramsdoug on Jun 16, 2010 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

One thing you have to remember is this kid hasn’t grown up in the US of Canadian hockey systems. Things like coniditioning, work out regiments aren’t stressed in other countries like they are here. Most of the people in his comparison group have a four or five year head start on him.

One thing to remember is that this kid did come over to play major juniors in Canada because he knew it was his best chance to get in to the NHL. To me, that’s all the commitment I need. Cardio can be trained. Desire to compete, as you mentioned, is very difficult. By coming to the us he’s shown me he has that desire.

My knock on Nino has never been about his heart or his willingness. I think the guy is all heart. My knock is that I think he’s an overachiever and lacks some of the talent players that will be drafted near him have. Not that it’s drastic, but I feel like he’s slightly less talented naturally than some other players available.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

He wasn’t even top-30 in points for the whole WHL. He had a lot of goals, very true, but I’ve never heard anyone say he has an amazing shot or is a natural goal scorer. And if we were looking for someone with a lot of goals, I think Skinner is a much better choice.

I think he WILL go top-10 because of his WJC. I agree, I think he is slightly overrated and makes up for his lack of skill with hard work on the ice (although apparently not in the weight room).

What bothers me most about Nino is that we are going to end up with him and he is not a guy with 1st line potential or skill. He will probably come in and replace Cole as a 20 goal scorer in the top-9, it is just my opinion that we have more than enough of those type guys.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Personally, I agree with you on Nino. I’m just not that worried about his training. I don’t think if he was in the same shape as Seguin, he would be a first line player. Other will disagree, but that’s what makes this board fun.

I do like the kids heart, and I think there are worse picks. But this is also why I’m okay with trading down if the top three forwards and d-men are gone when #7 roles around. For my money #7 – #12 or #13 are all about the same. None of them particularly fills a void on this team, so trade down and get more pieces. It’s also one of the big reasons I’m in favor of moving up.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with this, if we aren’t trusting Tarasenko I’d rather just trade down and get another 1st Round pick. We might even still get a guy like Skinner at #10-15 AND pick up a guy like Pysyk, Merrill, or McIlrath at #20-30.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t think moving down a handful of slots would land them another first (unless the Canes threw in maybe the last of their seconds).

by Cory Lavalette on Jun 16, 2010 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh I agree… It would take another 2nd Round pick or two, but it would be worth that in my opinion.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wouldn’t mind moving #7 and #37 for the chance to get Skinner or Granlund early and Tinordi later in the first.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

for what it’s worth….

The ISS, (they sell their report, it’s not online) ranks Nino as the top forward in the WHL, (ahead of Connolly), and they have the Islanders picking him at number 5.

It does not mean they are right, but it’s another opinion.

Editing Manager of CanesCountry.com

by Bob Wage on Jun 16, 2010 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Would you take Nino over Connolly?

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Depends on what the doctors say, doesn’t it?

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

If the Hurricanes team doctor said he was fully healed

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

yes, I would but that’s me.

apparently the Islanders are thinking of passing on him due to his agent withholding medical information.

check out Chris Botta’s latest.

As Katie Strang reports tonight of an Islanders visit with Brett Connolly now in the "doubtful" category – sounds like some medical report shenanigans – here’s another top prospect the Islanders are unlikely to draft:

http://www.islanderspointblank.com/

Editing Manager of CanesCountry.com

by Bob Wage on Jun 16, 2010 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

FWIW, the same questions surrounded Drew Doughty. Just sayin’.

by Cory Lavalette on Jun 16, 2010 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

True, but then Doughty lost 20 lbs before the combine to prove he was serious about his improving his conditioning.

http://www.prosportsblogging.com

by Great Ice-Pectations on Jun 16, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bob McKenzie says he won't be surprised if Skinner is top 10 pick

Bob McKenzie just sent a Tweet saying he won’t be surprised if Skinner is a top 10 pick.

by abramsdoug on Jun 16, 2010 1:47 PM EDT reply actions  

The collection of 30 hockey bloggers for SBNation are also doing a mock-draft. They’re picking 3 a day, starting today.

Edmonton (Copper and Blue) just picked Taylor Hall. Read why here.

Boston is on the clock. I can’t imagine who they’ll select.

Here’s your heads-up: Bob will be writing up the #7 selection on Friday. And the head of NHL blogs wouldn’t allow trades, so for this exercise, the Canes will be #7.

It's gonna be a long summer.

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 16, 2010 2:23 PM EDT reply actions  

I’m guessing it will end up being extremely similar to the Hockey’s Future mock-draft.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Boston just picked Seguin. Florida’s on the clock.

It's gonna be a long summer.

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 16, 2010 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

@ice_chip has started a twitter conversation that the Canes could sign Kris Versteeg.

How’s this for a conversation starter: how about Canes acquiring Kris Versteeg? Blackhawks desperately need to move salary.

He must not be taking The $44mil salary budget seriously either.

It's gonna be a long summer.

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 16, 2010 2:41 PM EDT reply actions  

Is this just smoke, or is there a fire here?

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t think so at all. But the caniac twitterverse is all lit up about it. (boredom → window shopping, I suppose)

It's gonna be a long summer.

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 16, 2010 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

To be clear – I meant I don’t think there’s fire here. Just smoke.

It's gonna be a long summer.

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 16, 2010 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

That’s how I took it, but thanks for the clarification. It would be nice to get Versteeg, but I’m not getting wrapped up in that until I hear more. I got too wrapped up in the chance of Ryan Clowe coming out here at the deadline, and I’m not getting my hopes up like that again.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Everyone is talking about trying to get Versteeg, I’m sure they will have a lot of offers for him. Although he would be probably the closest thing to a potential 1st line winger we could get outside of the Draft. I’m guessing Samsonov and Brind’Amour would have to be bought-out for it to happen though.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Even buying them out and not signing Whitney, there’s no money for anyone making more than $1mil/year.

It's gonna be a long summer.

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 16, 2010 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

ice_chip also says:

Three names to keep in mind for first round of draft next week: Johansen, Burmistrov, Granlund. See a connection there?

(A: they’re all Centers)

It's gonna be a long summer.

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 16, 2010 2:49 PM EDT reply actions  

Not to be rude, but taking stock from anything Chip says about hockey is like relaying on advice from the magic eight ball.

Is it October yet?

by hotchipsnsalsa on Jun 16, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

I live my life based on the magic 8 ball though.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

LOL!

It's gonna be a long summer.

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 16, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Chip Alexander

I really disagree with you about your comments concerning Chip Alexander. I think Chip is doing a great job and that he seldom says things unless he has researched them. He is not one to say outrageous things just to stir things up; and in fact, I wish he did more expressing his opinion. Chip stays in touch with the Hurricanes organization and has as good a finger on the pulse as anybody. Chip and Luke both have their insights and are well worth reading, I think.

by abramsdoug on Jun 16, 2010 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Chip is an old basketball guy. He tries hard and he’s nice enough, but I think the reporting on the team went down a notch when DeCock became sports editor and Chip took over the Canes Beat. He just doesn’t bring the background.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

I mentioned I wasn’t trying to be rude. I don’t know anything about hockey either other than I like to watch it. I grew up with football and baseball and I could tell what is supposed to happen at each position as each individual play unfolds. But hockey? Not so much. As pointed out by Leaguer he is a nice guy and he tries but to me he is only relaying on info that already has been relayed before and doesn’t give much insight. For example, he tweeted that the ‘Cains won’t touch Connelly because of health reasons — well even I could tell say that and I would be 50% correct. That’s why I say he is like the magic eight ball. I gain more insight from reading post in here in trying to learn more about the inside of the sport and about players than I do with Chip. Just saying.

Is it October yet?

by hotchipsnsalsa on Jun 16, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Chip and Connolly

I had the same reaction to Chip’s comments about Connolly; except there is a critical piece of data I don’t have and Chip might have. If the Hurricanes did not ask for their doctors to examine Connolly, and if they don’t have Connolly examined, the Hurricanes are passing on Connolly. I will go so far as to say it is a 100% certainty the Hurricanes won’t take Connolly unless and until their own team doctors examine him with their own eyes and give the green light. Until we know that one fact, and Chip might know, we lack some crucial information.

by abramsdoug on Jun 16, 2010 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yea, and if he does he should give some type of hint indicating such that he has had some additional info. It would make him more reputable in my opinion. Just making a blanket statement doesn’t mean anything to me because anybody can say that and be right.

Is it October yet?

by hotchipsnsalsa on Jun 16, 2010 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

More Mock Drafts

Here are some links to Mock Drafts at www.nhl.com

http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=62937

(Adam Kimelman’s Version III) – Canes take Gormley (is that cheering I hear from JussiJuice?)

http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=62943

(Brad Holland Version III) – Canes take Niederreiter

http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=62944

(Mike Morreale’s Version III) – Canes take Forbert (again is that very loud applause from some of the CC community)

Interesting that two of the NHL.com three mock drafts have the Canes taking a defenseman.

by abramsdoug on Jun 16, 2010 2:59 PM EDT reply actions  

I certainly wouldn’t mind seeing Gormley in a Canes jersey next year. I have little doubt he would be a permanent top-4 guy halfway through the season.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

He would compliment Tim Gleason very well.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Compliment Tim Gleason - Gormley

   Your observations seem totally correct about Gormley working well with Tim Gleason, but I also confess I had an image of a young rookie Gormley saying “Mr. Gleason, your uniform look especially tidy today,” etc.

by abramsdoug on Jun 16, 2010 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

It would be nice to have Timmy and Joni be followed out by McBain and Gormley. That’s a lot of solid play.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

This would make me much happier about our D. Still young and inexperienced, but at least then we would have some depth.

I wonder if there being no word about Picard is an indication that they are waiting for the Draft to make final changes to our D…

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Dunno why, but Gormley red-flags for me. Just seems ordinary in all aspects (when I’ve watched him) and he had the advantage of playing with an excellent partner all year. It’d be like giving Matt Carle No. 1 d-man money based on how good he was with Pronger this year.

by Cory Lavalette on Jun 16, 2010 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

You think he’s more of a system product than a talent? Should we start calling him the Tim Tebow of the draft?

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Heh … I wouldn’t say that. I just don’t think as much of him as I do Fowler and Gudbranson.

by Cory Lavalette on Jun 16, 2010 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with you there. I am very high on Gudbranson. I can’t quite decide if I would prefer for the Canes to draft Fowler or Gormley. I think Gormley fills more of a need, but Fowler’s upside is hard to pass up.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fowler seems like a guy that would put butts in the seats to me… He might as well be a forward the way he plays sometimes, very exciting player to watch.

Of course Gudbranson probably has more value in being a shut-down guy, but offensive flair usually draws more fans.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Offensive flair not just draws fans, but it can bring back a lot in a trade.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Or… Become a suitable replacement for any expensive UFA’s that the Canes cannot afford to keep next year, therefore opening up the possibility of trading him for a 1st line talent or Draft Picks if we can’t afford to take salary.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was trying not to bring Joni it to this conversation, but yes, drafting Fowler does allow the team to go further down the road of trading Joni if they want to.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Gormley!! Cory

Think Lidstrom! steady 2-way D-man for 20 years.!!
forget red flags…think Cups.

by randycane on Jun 16, 2010 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Everyone sees Lidstrom has a steady guy, but he’s is an absolutely terrific offensive d-man on top of being so positionally sound and smart in his own end. He’s not steady …. he’s downright dynamic in every facet. I don’t see “dynamic” in Gormley.

by Cory Lavalette on Jun 17, 2010 8:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

Except that Gormley would be the Pronger. No defender on Montcon was as good as he was.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Funny that someone else won on the team QMJHL d-man of the year.

by Cory Lavalette on Jun 16, 2010 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

David Savard. Believe he won CHL d-man of the year too.

by Cory Lavalette on Jun 16, 2010 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Haven’t heard much about him… Funny when you try to look him up you just get more articles about how good Gormley is.

I’m impressed Gormley has made such a name for himself playing next to that great of a D-man (albeit a 4th Round pick only last year). He is certainly much younger.

Sometimes I honestly don’t understand why people win the award they do. For example, with all of Johansen and Nino’s acclaim you would think one of them would have won WHL rookie of the year, and yet it went to someone I have never heard of.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m not saying he’s better than Gormley over the long haul.

Also, I don’t know if Nino or Johansen were up for ROY b/c they’re both 1992s. Nino came over from Europe and Johansen was with Penticon of the BCHL last year.

by Cory Lavalette on Jun 16, 2010 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ahh ok… I just assumed because the WHL website listed them as “Rookies” that they would be eligible, but that makes sense if it is only literally 1st year players.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

More Draft news – with Rutherford taking center stage (kinda, sort of with Tambellini)
from NHL.com, Hurricanes, Oilers will be busiest at Draft – went up less than an hour ago.

Rutherford thinks the depth of the draft, as well as a number of other issues, will make this year’s selection process a pretty active one on the trade front.
“Some teams have cap issues, some people have budget issues,” said Rutherford, “so because of that I would suspect that you will see more movement and more activity.”
Rutherford said his team could be among those looking to make some moves at the draft.
 “We feel very strong that we’re going to get a very good player at seven,” he said. “Then with all the extra picks in the other rounds, there’re a lot of things we can do with them.”

It's gonna be a long summer.

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 16, 2010 3:32 PM EDT reply actions  

Use ’em, JR…use ’em.

Let’s make a splash and use some of those later round picks to move up in the first.

Quality over quantity.

by Elsker on Jun 16, 2010 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Skinner, For What It Is Worth

In the very hard-fought 7 game series between Kitchener and Windsor… Here were Skinner and Hall’s Stats:

Skinner – 8 Goal, 5 Assists – 13 Points
Hall – 5 Goals, 5 Assists – 10 Points

Watching the games, Skinner was clearly the dominant of the two in the series. I’m not saying anything like Skinner is better than Hall… But it was nice to see from him.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 3:36 PM EDT reply actions  

FWIW, I love that we’re having such an educated discussion about this here. I think anyone who thinks hockey in Carolina can’t work should read through the thoughtful opinions here.

by Cory Lavalette on Jun 16, 2010 4:07 PM EDT reply actions  

I think Canes Country is one of the most comment rich hockey blogs on SB nation.

http://www.prosportsblogging.com

by Great Ice-Pectations on Jun 16, 2010 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

That’s because all the opinionated blow hards from the north moved down here to follow the Whalers ;-)

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Some of us from the South are equally opinionated, I just want to add

  Some of us who have never lived any further North than Raleigh are also highly opinionated. My family says they are going to put this statement on my tombstone:

“Often mistaken, but never in doubt.”

by abramsdoug on Jun 16, 2010 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well played, ADoug! Well played indeed!

Never let your family tell my family about that line. We’ll have matching tombstones then.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks for that observation. I’d also like to think we have some of the funniest and most creative conversations and least divisive personalities. Good old southern hospitality to go with the hockey smarts and ability to articulate thoughts clearly. Pretty good chemistry all around.

It's gonna be a long summer.

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 16, 2010 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Can we add “very entertaining photoshoppery” to this list too?

"...they will not force us...they will stop degrading us...they will not control us...we will be victorious..."
Mah blog.

by Tachi828 on Jun 16, 2010 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Absolutely. Part of the creativity you can count on here. Nothing ever gets too serious.

It's gonna be a long summer.

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 16, 2010 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Has anyone posted @ice_chip’s follow up?

If reading the tea leaves correctly, Canes are looking for a center in the first round and then defensemen in the second.

to which @puckdrops Brian LeBlanc added:

Which is precisely what they did last year. RT @ice_chip: If reading tea leaves correctly, Canes are looking for a C in 1st rd then D in 2nd

It's gonna be a long summer.

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 16, 2010 4:29 PM EDT reply actions  

So that = Seguin, Johansen, BURMISTROV, or BJUGSTAD. If you just look listed positions (Hall played center in midget).

by Go_Shelf on Jun 16, 2010 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

The names he tweeted earlier were Johansen, Burmistrov and Granlund.

It's gonna be a long summer.

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 16, 2010 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hopefully Johansen.

by Go_Shelf on Jun 16, 2010 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Over Granlund, really? Just curious, but why are you leaning that way?

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

I hope it is ok for me to throw in a comment. Granlund is said to be amazing in terms of puck handling and passing. He is also reported to be more physical than one would expect given his size. My question is whether the grind of the NHL and the Hurricanes style of play makes him the best fit. Granlund has top 10 skills, but it is in a small package.

  Also, bigger players tend to take a while longer to get to their game; and therefore the upper end of their talent is not known. Sutter is a good example of that situation. If Sutter’s full potential were seen by NHL scouts, he is a top six pick.

by abramsdoug on Jun 16, 2010 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Any comment is appreciated by me when it comes to those guys likely to go between #7 and #14. Nothing really differentiates one from another IMO, so I’m trying to see why other people are leaning the ways they are hoping I can pick up a few pieces of info that I’ve missed or overlooked or just been to stubborn to see.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

To eloborate – when it’s that close between players I almost look at where they’re from and where they play. Since Johansen’s a BC boy who plays in the Dub I’ve got a pretty good idea of what we’re getting. The other 2 mentioned: I don’t like Russians and am indifferent towards Finns. In a toss up I always pick the kids from NA.

by Go_Shelf on Jun 16, 2010 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

I hope one of the three seconds yields at least one D.

by Cory Lavalette on Jun 16, 2010 4:32 PM EDT reply actions  

of recent past a lot good dmen have come from the 2nd round.

by Go_Shelf on Jun 16, 2010 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

And so should I go look up the 3 Dmen you have in the “also consider” list above?

It's gonna be a long summer.

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 16, 2010 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’d be shocked if we picked three times in the 2nd Round. If we aren’t moving up from 7, I think we are definitely moving up into a second 1st Rounder.

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

While I don’t think it will happen, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Canes used all three 2nds on blue liners.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

That would be disappointing.

by Go_Shelf on Jun 16, 2010 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would be very upset if they didn’t take a hard look at Teemu Pulkkinen. Being a once-top-10-lock and a very talented goal scorer, he is also Finnish which meshes very well here. He had a great U-18 tournament also (top scorer in the whole tournament I believe).

by JussiJuice on Jun 16, 2010 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pulkkinen would be a nice second round pick up, but I have a feeling #37 is going to be a blue liner, which means Pulkkinen has to fall to middle of the second.

I think the team has quite a bit of talent on offense in the system, especially if they go with a forward with the first pick. Going all D in the second wouldn’t be the worst idea. Again, I doubt that it does actually happen, but I wouldn’t be shocked if it did.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was just reading about him 30 minutes ago here (not to claim that’s a great article – just curious). He’s from Ruutu’s hometown Vantaa.

It's gonna be a long summer.

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 16, 2010 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Strange Ironies and All That Corvo and Whitney

How ironic would it be if Whitney were to leave and the money allocated to Whitney be used to re-sign Corvo? The law of unintended consequences is the prime law of the Universe – the ultimate consequences of actions only appear in rear view mirrors.

by abramsdoug on Jun 16, 2010 5:15 PM EDT reply actions  

Corvo, Pitkanen, McBain, and Babchuk. Plenty of guys to man the points on power plays.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m more concerned with having D-men to keep the puck out of our own net.

http://www.prosportsblogging.com

by Great Ice-Pectations on Jun 16, 2010 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ahem…..“our own net”? Would this be in Raleigh or LA, Great Ice?

It's gonna be a long summer.

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 16, 2010 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Click on the link to my SB nation profile and tell me what is listed as my favorite hockey team. Hint, it’s east of the Mississippi :)

http://www.prosportsblogging.com

by Great Ice-Pectations on Jun 16, 2010 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

And what does it say in your profile of your LAKings blog? (just kidding – I know, down deep, your heart is in Carolina. For now.

It's gonna be a long summer.

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 16, 2010 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh, the razzing… The blood in my veins may look purple, but when I bleed it’s Carolina red.

http://www.prosportsblogging.com

by Great Ice-Pectations on Jun 16, 2010 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Realistically, if the Canes can’t afford Whitney, then it’s unlikely they can afford Corvo either.

Same salary ballpark and just as much competition from other teams on the demand side.

by Elsker on Jun 16, 2010 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Corvo and the Salary Budget

Elsker, I wonder if Corvo has as much market appeal as Whitney. Washington decided to go with its younger defensemen. Ottawa didn’t like him and treated him like dirt, I thought. As a defenseman, Corvo could play a number of years for the Hurricanes if he re-signed. He has a personality that fits well at Carolina and the Hurricanes system suits his skill set. I wonder if the Hurricanes could find $2.75 million to pay him? Also, I wonder how many teams are ready to bid on him? I suspect Canadian teams will take a pass. Which teams do you think will be bidding for Corvo?

  All that being said, it is a financial stretch for the Hurricanes to find the funding for Corvo.

by abramsdoug on Jun 16, 2010 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

There’s a lot of different places he can end up. He’s a solid dman who’s cap friendly, who wouldn’t want him. That being said, I think he ends up in a small market, he doesn’t seem to like the pressure cooker type markets.

by Go_Shelf on Jun 16, 2010 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Corvo and Salary

What’s your best estimate as to what salary it would take to sign Corvo.? I think it’s $2.75 million for Carolina. He knows the team, likes the style of play, and likes the fact people don’t hound him to death away from the rink. It has to be at least a little bit tempting for Jim Rutherford, right?

by abramsdoug on Jun 16, 2010 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes, the list of dmen that can contribute what J. Corvo does at that price is pretty short. Before the budget came out I was definitely hoping Corvo, Whitney, and Cullen would all be back.

by Go_Shelf on Jun 16, 2010 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Corvo made 3.5 million last season, or at least had a cap hit of that. I would assume he makes about the same next season.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Corvo? Unless I’m reading something wrong, according to nhlnumbers.com, he had a four-year deal, $2.5 in 06-07 and 07-08, and $2.75 in 08-09 and 09-10. Cap hit $2.625.

Phoblographer and Finn Aficionado
SISU

by Jamie Kellner on Jun 16, 2010 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

My bad, read Hockeybuzz.com incorrectly. That is the right cap hit.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 16, 2010 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Salary-Joe

If i know JR he’ll start out at 2mil offer…

by randycane on Jun 16, 2010 6:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Can't Argue with the thought Jim Rutherford says $2 million to Corvo's Agent

Although I too believe Jim Rutherford would likely say $2 million to Corvo’s agent, I have to believe he would move some if Corvo would take less than the $3 million or more his agent has promised him based on my complete and total speculation – but knowing human nature as I do. So randycane, what’s the breaking point for Jim Rutherford in terms of the most he’d offer. Remember that A. Ward was paid $2.5 million – a bigger waste of money I can’t recall.

by abramsdoug on Jun 16, 2010 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Where is this money coming from?

It's gonna be a long summer.

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 16, 2010 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Money to Corvo is from Money Allocated to Sign Whitney

In my very speculative world, I am assuming that Jim Rutherford as the ok to go to the very secret Whitney money stash to make things work if all else fails. I am assuming Jim Rutherford in his heart of hearts knows he can get $2.5 million toward some veteran, whether Whitney or Corvo. I can’t imagine Jim Rutherford having an offer to Whitney that inspires disbelief. It’s all guesswork and in this case admittedly has no concrete factual basis. Usually, I have more to work with than in this instance. I freely admit it. All I have is that Whitney was offered something and I doubt he was offered less than $2 million.

by abramsdoug on Jun 16, 2010 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Actually, we don’t know that Whitney was offered anything at all, when you get right down to it.

Budget projections done elsewhere on this blog for next season have room for neither player…at any price.

by Elsker on Jun 16, 2010 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's hard to persuade any NHL player to pay to play

I imagine since Rutherford said he made an offer to Whitney that Jim Rutherford had the idea clearly in mind that he’d have to pay Whitney to play this year for the Hurricanes. It’s hard to imagine any negotiation that said, we can’t pay you anything, but we’d love your company at the games and in the locker rooms. What is unknown is the amount offered; but no agent is going to bid against himself, so if Whitney had an asking price, it is almost a certainty that Jim Rutherford also gave a price to Whitney’s agent. It’s hard to negotiate anything if every word is No.

by abramsdoug on Jun 16, 2010 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Honestly, I don’t think you’ll find a direct quote from JR that he made Whitney an offer and it was rejected.

Instead, I think he announced that it looks like Whitney is headed towards free agency, which could very well be because he had NO money to offer to Ray.

From hockeymomof2’s excellent work on the “two week buyout” thread on salary budget for next year (which I will quote here, if necessary), there is NO money for Ray whatsoever…and we still apparently will have difficulties getting under the self-imposed budget even without Ray/Corvo.

by Elsker on Jun 16, 2010 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

JR said in an interview with Maniscalco (I think) that the talks didn’t progress beyond dollars. JR had an amount in mind, Whitney’s agent said no, and they didn’t even get to the point where they were talking about the length of the contract.

by Gillimus on Jun 16, 2010 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

From 6/10 interview on 620 The Buzz (disclaimer: transcribed closely from audio, I could have missed a word or two):

“We’ve taken our position as far as we can go on an offer, which as I expected would not be suitable for him, but at this point in time it was as far as we could go, and so this is not a surprise to me that he is going to test the free agent market.”

So I think he was at least offered something?

Phoblographer and Finn Aficionado
SISU

by Jamie Kellner on Jun 16, 2010 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Okay, I agree that it sounds like something was offered.

But, it certainly sounds like a low-ball number, since JR freely admits “which as I expected would not be suitable for him”.

I just don’t see where there is anywhere near enough budget to cover what Ray (or Corvo) would want/need.

by Elsker on Jun 16, 2010 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Corvo

I suspect that if the Hurricanes offered Whitney $2 million, then they would ultimately stretch to $2.5 million to keep him as a last ditch effort. Similarly, if there is a stretched budget of $2.5 million more that in an emergency could be tapped for Whitney, it is also capable of being tapped for Corvo.

What is not clear is whether Washington’s opinion of Corvo is an outlier view and that teams are drooling to get him. After all, Boston fell in mad love with Seidenberg and paid him $13 million over 4 years. My bet is that infatuation fails like the love of a mobile phone. Seidenberg is fine, but he has a unique knack for zigging when he should zag and doing so at the absolute worst time imaginable.

by abramsdoug on Jun 16, 2010 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

You’re the guy that was comfortable with a budget team. Well, this is the reality of fielding a team on a near cap floor budget.

There’s no room on such a team for “veteran” help like Whitney or Corvo.

Just do the math. There’s not even $2M to offer to either of them.

by Elsker on Jun 17, 2010 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

He’s like my wife, LOVES A BARGAIN my guess 2.4, 2.6 for 2-years

by randycane on Jun 16, 2010 6:52 PM EDT reply actions  

$46 million self-imposed cap

Actual salaries for players under contract next year: $43.7 million (cap hit is higher, but it doesn’t matter). If Rod and Samsonov get bought out, that lowers actual salaries to about $39.8 million (assuming 2/3 buyout spread over 2 years).

RFAs I feel the Canes have to sign: Samson, Carson, and Pete-Dawg. Reasonable raises for them would be $550k, $600k and $600k, respectively. That puts salaries at $41.6 with 13 forwards, 5 D, and 2 goalies. If Babchuk comes back and JR can get him for $1.5 million, then the team is at $43.1 million WITHOUT paying the number 7 pick. I’ll assume everyone else drafted by the Canes doesn’t play in the NHL next year.

The #7 pick in the 09 draft (Nazem Kadri) made $900k at the NHL level but only played one game, so his cap hit was negligible. Let’s get optimistic and say the Canes will keep their top pick in Raleigh all year to get him some ice-time and to get the fans excited, and he makes $1 million. Now they’re around $44 million with 14 forwards, 6 D, and 2 goalies. That leaves $2 million — was that Whitney’s money? If they don’t sign him, will they spend it? Bring back Picard for depth? Make a lowball offer to Corvo or Pothier? Sign a cheap UFA or two for depth?

by Gillimus on Jun 16, 2010 7:57 PM EDT reply actions  

I follow the math, but where is the source for the “46 million self-imposed cap”?

That total is not consistent with PK’s “$10M-$15M reduction” from last season’s salary budget.

I’m not sure we’ve seen a salary budget number for next season just yet, so it’s certainly all speculation for now.

But $46M seems a stretch.

by Elsker on Jun 16, 2010 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’ve seen $44 million thrown around, heard $46 million also. I believe the $10-15 million reduction is in total team expenses, not exclusively player salaries, which leaves a little wiggle room.

by Gillimus on Jun 16, 2010 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Could be total budget, not salaries. But, in a year in which we’re flying to Europe/Russia and hosting the All-Star game, it’s hard to imagine that total expenses will be reduced at all.

The only place where cuts can be made is in the salary budget. And, if it’s $44M (or lower), then there’s no room for Whitney…or Corvo.

by Elsker on Jun 16, 2010 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

‘Canes are already at $41.9 million with 15 players signed. That’s for 11 forwards, 3 defensemen, and Ward. So that leaves about $2-4 million to sign 1 forward, 3 defensemen, and Peters.

this of course does not take into consideration the potential buyouts, etc.

http://www.prosportsblogging.com

by Great Ice-Pectations on Jun 16, 2010 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Very true. It could be that PK gave JR the green light for $2 mill for Ray, and when that was rejected the team can settle in around $44 million for salaries.

by Gillimus on Jun 16, 2010 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

My numbers were for 7 D and 13 F, plus 2 goalies. They of course only “need” 6D+12F = 18 skaters, but it seems like they used 22 total, with the goalies last year. IIRC, the number 23 on the roster is used for Cap calculations. Is that the minimum or maximum?

I was also using the 25% reduction number for salary expense – from PKJr’s comments in the Luke DeCock article. Using $56Mil last year – 25% ($14mil) = $42 Mil. Maybe $44 Mil; but I just don’t see $46Mil starting out in October. Is $56mil a good starting figure? That might actually be a little high, especially given how much salary we dumped at the deadline. (Corvo, Wallin, Walker, Cullen = [guessing, at a mimimum] $10mil, for 1/3 season = $3mil)

Maybe they’ll take on some salary at the deadline next Feb, if they’re making a run into the post-season, but not while the number guys are trying to package the investment in this market.

I believe the NHL underwrites a lot of the expense for the European swing. I don’t know how they address the lost revenue for missing a home game.

It's gonna be a long summer.

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 17, 2010 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

23 is the maximum player number. Teams can carry as few as 20 players if they desire. I think 22 is a good guess for the number the Canes will carry next year. That’s one extra d and one extra forward. Since it’s likely to be a rotation of young kids all season it makes no sense to have more than one kid sit in the NHL press box when he could play down in the AHL.

As for the revenue for the missed home game I think both teams split the gate for the two games played in Europe. I believe that’s what I read last year about the Blackhawks opening in Europe last season.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 17, 2010 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

Question, then: How did the Capitals end up with 4 or 5 healthy scratches every game, down the stretch? I never could figure out how they had that many on their roster…

It's gonna be a long summer.

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 17, 2010 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

After the trade deadline I don’t believe there is a roster limit. It’s similar to the how the rosters in baseball expand in August and September to let teams call up young players.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 17, 2010 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks. Makes sense. And McPhee had oodles of cap room too, so that wasn’t a limit either.

It's gonna be a long summer.

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 17, 2010 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

I bet they go with only 12 forwards on the roster, since Charlotte is now so closed and stocked with replacements.

That move alone would save the org $0.5M.

Mo’s precious D and his love of putting 7 of them on the bench at times will probably mean 7 D on the roster, for a total of 21 non-injured at the NHL level at any given time.

by Elsker on Jun 17, 2010 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

7D ++

Don’t you think that’s a good thing…injured D-man during a game can cause a bigger problem than a Fw, eh??

by randycane on Jun 17, 2010 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

Well, you have to have one heck of a crystal ball for that to happen, as you can only put 20 on the bench.

So, taking out the two goalies, that leaves 12 forwards and 6 D, OR 11 forwards and 7 D.

Mo only puts 7 D on the bench when someone’s iffy for the whole game and may need to be replaced during the game. He then either ignores the 4th line or double-shifts a center onto it to make up for the shortage in forwards.

You can’t pull a player off press row to sub for an injury that happens during the game. You just have to go with the 5 remaining D.

by Elsker on Jun 17, 2010 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

my point exactly

that’s why it makes sense, the 4th line is only going to have limited minutes anyway, so double-shifting a center (staal) a few times is usually a good idea anyway.

by randycane on Jun 17, 2010 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Man…then you must just love Mo hockey.

by Elsker on Jun 17, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

NO but i've seen a lot of games..

And when you play with 5D it usually isn’t pretty! That’s just smart
to think ahead. also helps when you have to kill a lot of penalties!

by randycane on Jun 17, 2010 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe only 12 Forwards on the roster, but for budget/cash flow projections, they must consider injuries. Last year the “extra” was Tim Conboy, who could play D or F. Versatile if lacking in the speed and skill actually required to win in the NHL. He had a one-way, and still got the big salary playing in Albany.

It's gonna be a long summer.

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 17, 2010 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

Charlotte’s now so close that they could theoretically pull a replacement up from there for a night game, as long as the injury is identified by the end of the morning skate.

May not have to carry as many (or any?) spare tires at all this season.

by Elsker on Jun 17, 2010 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Potentially, but I think some of the young guys will benefit going thru an NHL practice and schedule even if they get limited of no game time and I think that benefit will outweigh the cost of carrying the additional player. The Canes may do what the Hawks did with Jack Skille all season long and pull him up and down just about every day.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 17, 2010 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

I also apparently blocked out Aaron Ward’s presence on the team this past year. We traded him and his $2.5mil salary on deadline day too. So that’s 5 players with salaries totaling at least $12mil that went away in Feb and March. Wonder what the salary expense actually was for 09-10?

It's gonna be a long summer.

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 17, 2010 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

Another possibility, especially with Chip predicting we'll take a center...

Burmistrov. Like the comparison with Samsonov. Centering the 3rd or 4th line, he could bring some buzz to the Canes.

by Gillimus on Jun 16, 2010 9:25 PM EDT reply actions  

ANOTHER LONG LIST OF MOCK DRAFTS

Here’s a link that compiles a number of the mock drafts:

http://dcprosportsreport.com/NHLMocks.htm

The pattern is emerging with Niederreiter, Johansen, and Connolly being frequent names mentioned as the #7 pick.

If we knew whether or not the Hurricanes doctors personally examined Connolly, it would offer a very helpful clue. I think the chances are 0% that the Hurricanes would run the risk of taking Connolly unless their own doctors examined him and gave them the greenlight on health issues.

by abramsdoug on Jun 16, 2010 11:06 PM EDT reply actions  

I think those mock drafts show the rising draft stock of Connolly. He’s off the board by # 7 on a lot of the mock drafts that have been updated recently.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 17, 2010 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

I’d much rather somebody else takes that risk, we can’t afford to waste a top pick!!

by randycane on Jun 17, 2010 12:35 PM EDT reply actions  

What's that they say about reward?

No risk no reward.

I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.

by C-Leaguer on Jun 17, 2010 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

lots of fish in this sea, and most of them swim real fine! lol

by randycane on Jun 17, 2010 3:11 PM EDT reply actions  

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Carolina Hurricanes Roster

# Pos. DOB W H
Bryan Allen 5 D 8/21/1980 226 6-5
Brian Boucher 33 G 1/2/1977 200 6-2
Drayson Bowman 21 C 3/8/1989 190 6-1
Tim Brent 37 C 3/10/1984 188 6-0
Patrick Dwyer 39 RW 6/22/1983 175 5-11
Justin Faulk 28 D 3/20/1992 205 6-0
Tim Gleason 6 D 1/29/1983 217 6-0
Jay Harrison 44 D 11/3/1982 211 6-4
Jussi Jokinen 36 LW 4/1/1983 198 5-11
Derek Joslin 27 D 3/17/1987 210 6-1
Chad LaRose 59 LW 3/27/1982 181 5-10
Jamie McBain 4 D 2/25/1988 200 6-2
Andreas Nodl 14 RW 2/28/1987 196 6-1
Justin Peters 60 G 8/30/1986 205 6-1
Joni Pitkanen 25 D 9/19/1983 210 6-3
Tuomo Ruutu 15 LW 2/16/1983 200 6-0
Jeff Skinner 53 RW 5/16/1992 193 5-11
Jaroslav Spacek 8 D 2/11/1974 210 6-0
Eric Staal 12 C 10/29/1984 205 6-4
Anthony Stewart 13 C 1/5/1985 230 6-3
Brandon Sutter 16 C 2/14/1989 183 6-3
Jiri Tlusty 19 C 3/16/1988 209 6-0
Cam Ward 30 G 2/29/1984 185 6-1

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