Should Hurricanes Make "Big Play" For Tyler Seguin?
by Bob Wage on Jun 18, 2010 10:00 AM EDT
137 comments
There has been a lot of speculation from fans and local sports writers alike about the possibility of the Carolina Hurricanes trading up in the draft so that they can acquire the second overall pick from the Boston Bruins.
The Edmonton Oilers will almost certainly select Taylor Hall with the first pick. And don't believe the rumors that GM Steve Tambellini would be open to offers for that pick. Hall and Edmonton prospect Jordan Eberle already have shown tremendous chemistry playing together in the WJC's. It would be way too costly to pry Hall away from the Oilers.
But what about the Boston Bruins at number two, the team next in line to select Plymouth Whalers' blue chip, Tyler Seguin?
While Boston GM Peter Chiarelli has made it clear that he is not very interested in trading that pick, perhaps the Hurricanes could make him an offer that he can not refuse?
Although let's face it, a couple of second rounders, a third rounder or two, and/or a roster player is not going to get the job done. Boston has upcoming cap problems and can not afford to take on any more salary unless they have to, so any roster player Carolina has to offer is more than likely not even going to be considered by them.
Multiple second rounders and third rounders will not equal the talent of Seguin's ilk and those won't get the job done either.
So what does Carolina have that Boston might be interested in? How about next year's first round pick, in addition to this year's seventh overall?
That price is very high, perhaps too high for Carolina to even consider. Two first round draft picks for one player is indeed steep. But Seguin is as close to a sure thing as there can be in any draft.
Let's look at the young center's numbers again. He scored 48 goals and had 58 assists for a total of 106 points in just 63 games. The ISS Draft Guide described him as being "a pro level competitor with red hot skill who will make fans sizzle with excitement."
Why might Boston be willing to consider a proposal? First of all, Seguin will be an expensive signing, probably demanding bonus amounts which could put his cap number well over $3 million. For instance, both Steven Stamkos and John Tavares have cap numbers of $3.75 million.
Boston is projected to be so tight against the cap this season that they are probably going to have to trade RFA Blake Wheeler because they won't have room to sign him.
Also, the Bruins are already loaded at center. Marc Savard, David Krejci, and Patrice Bergeron make a very strong trio at the position.
If they make the trade, the newly drafted player at number seven will not require such a large contract, and might not even make their team. It could save the Bruins almost $4 million of cap space this year.
It's obvious why the Hurricanes would love to have Seguin. With Eric Staal, Brandon Sutter, and Seguin, they would have an extremely strong middle of the ice for many years to come. Plus, the star would excite the fanbase and help sell more tickets. He might even help the team win a few more games as well.
The big question is, if the Hurricanes offer up two first round draft picks, is that too much? It is a big gamble, but it's a big gamble for both teams. Anything could happen next year. If the Canes finish near last in the league, it will turn out to be a great deal for Boston and Caniacs will probably be hanging their heads like Toronto fans are right now. But if Carolina can finish near the middle of the pack or higher, the deal would be in their favor.
Should the Canes gamble with their future to acquire that pick?
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while i understand
and respect each persons thoughts & opinions…but Zi see this as a form of “selling” our souls so to speak…and while I am NOT against taking a chance or a caculated risk…but logic,past history has shown and proven that JR & the canes wouldn’t make such a move…now i will admit that IF JR were to pull that off …he’d fill up alot of freaking seats. but still I persoanlly don’t think it’s worth the risk…
have fun folks…got to go as i got a 2 pm medical appointment…it takes a wee bit ti get ready…
And if it Aint Hockey,It Aint Nothin !!
Nino is The One !
Great article… I myself have come to the same conclusion, the Bruins can’t afford to take Salary and 2nd/3rd Rounders just aren’t going to do it. Personally I think it is a price worth paying, however being that Seguin is from a Peter Karmanos owned team, I am certain management themselves has decided for themseles he is worth it or not based on the huge amount of information they have at their disposal (more than any other team in the league). I think there is a very good chance they might see Seguin as a franchise superstar that would be too good to pass up, not to mention he is the best Hurricanes home-grown prospect to come along in years.
I think if we offered #7 Overall and our 1st next year, that IS an offer Boston will be extremely hard pressed to refuse. Especially, as you mention, given their Cap problems and their logjam at Center.
I would pull the trigger on that deal. With Staal/Sutter/Seguin as our top-3 Centers next year there is absolutely no way we will have a top-5 pick, likely not a top-10. Certainly not a top-2 pick. This team NEEDS to make a big splash and counteract the negativity brought on by the budget cut. A huge play for Seguin would make this happen.
Not to mention that leaves us with our three 2nd Round picks in this extremely deep Draft. These guys could easily turn out to be just as good as any mid to late 1st Round pick we would get next year.
I think if we offered #7 Overall and our 1st next year, that IS an offer Boston will be extremely hard pressed to refuse.
As bad as this team is likely to be this year that 1st next year might be a really really good pick too.
it always burns within
the downward spiral never ends
when driven into sin
your salvation's found in a sinner's deed
by Douchebag St John on Jun 18, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
So where’s the cut off in your mind? How good of a pick next year is too good to give up?
I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.
In my mind it would only be a loss if it ended up being a top-5 pick. You simply aren’t going to find an immediate potential superstar anywhere outside the Top-5 of the Draft.
If I had the choice between Connolly this year and a guy similar to Forbert, McIlrath, or Pysyk next year OR just Tyler Seguin… I would still take Seguin.
That’s about where it’s at in my mind as well.
I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.
Jussi answered the question for me. Seguin all freaking day.
it always burns within
the downward spiral never ends
when driven into sin
your salvation's found in a sinner's deed
by Douchebag St John on Jun 18, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
If you think any team with Staal/Sutter/Seguin down the middle isn’t at the very least a middle of the pack team… Then I’m sorry but you must not watch hockey a lot.
He watches with me, he watches plenty. Don’t forget how young this team is going to be next year. Rookes have talent but are inconsistent. An injury to Staal or Ward next year like they took this year and the team could really really struggle, particularly if it’s Staal and there’s no Cullen to fill in.
I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.
It is very easy to be negative and say we are going to suck next year… True we don’t have a great team, but we certainly don’t have a bottom of the barrel team. With Seguin chipping in 50-60 points we would be a lot better off in any case, I can tell you that.
If you think any team with Staal/Sutter/Seguin down the middle isn’t at the very least a middle of the pack team… Then I’m sorry but you must not watch hockey a lot.
Sutter had a career year last year. He may well up his production, but keep in mind that this was a guy drafted to be a really good third line center or stopper. We may never see that level of production from him again. We certainly should not count on it
Staal is Staal. He is a known quantity and so far has not proven he can carry a team for a full year, just stretches. He has the ability and this first full season with the " C " may bring the best out of him for full year for the first time since the Cup year.
Seguin is a blue chip prospect. No doubt. But so was Alexander Dagle. You simply cannot count on a rookie to be a super star. It should always be a pleasant surprise.
With that being said, the potential for this team to suck, is there especially considering that the payroll is going to be towards the bottom of the league this year. As Puck Daddy said a few days ago:
Carolina Hurricanes: Buried deep inside a post about how Ray Whitney(notes) has not completely given up on returning to the Hurricanes, there is this terrifying fact: “The (Canes’) self-imposed budget this year could be no higher than $44 million.” Hoo boy are they going to be BAD next year.
it always burns within
the downward spiral never ends
when driven into sin
your salvation's found in a sinner's deed
by Douchebag St John on Jun 18, 2010 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Trust me, I don’t think anyone (myself especially as many could tell you) is happy about the budget cuts. I don’t think next year with or without Seguin we will be a Cup powerhouse type team. But do you really think that long-term our team would be better off without Seguin? Would you bank on the chance that we will lose out next year and get a top-2 Overall pick with equal potential?
Personally, I’d rather have every site in the league saying how “BAD” we are going to be next year. Remember at the beginning of this year when every site from TSN to ESPN had the Canes ranked to finish top-10 or top-5 in the league? Shows how much they know…
The Canes will not be picking in the top 10 next year especially if they get Seguin. Plus, this team played much better last year with the younger guys. To say they will be bad next year is WAY TOO PRESUMPTUOUS…
by DesertCaniac on Jun 19, 2010 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Teams at the low end of the payroll scale tend to not do well. To say they won’t be bad is also way too presumptuous.
I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.
Just because low end payroll teams “tend” to do poorly doesn’t mean that the Canes will definitely play poorly next year. Will they be a good team next year? Probably not. But does that mean they’ll be bad? Not necessarily…
by DesertCaniac on Jun 21, 2010 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I voted no but after reading the rest....hmmm maybe it would not be that bad an idea
How about swapping 1st rounders this year and giving them our 1st next year for their 2nd or 3rd?
I say do it. It’d be a cool thing to do, get people excited and give us incredible depth down the middle. I think we’ll do fairly well next year and wont be giving too much next draft. And the 3 second-rounders will soften the blow.
If the Canes do make this move, they can always re-acquire a different 1st round pick in 2011 by pulling a trade during the season…
by DesertCaniac on Jun 19, 2010 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Weren’t they rumored to be interested in Cole before we reaquired him? If this year’s and next year’s first rounders are not enough then throw in Cole to sweeten the pot. MacDonald said we should take the best player available so let’s do it.
Is it October yet?
by hotchipsnsalsa on Jun 18, 2010 11:46 AM EDT reply actions
They can’t take on salary … and certainly not one as inflated as Cole’s. The Canes would have to take back an even worse salary.
Ryder at $4M for next year is the only one that makes sense. We have no use for Thomas at three year and $14M remaining, and I doubt they’d trade Sturm at $3.5M for next year even though he’s hurt and will likely miss the start of the season. Even in all that, a Ryder for Cole swap only saves the B’s $1M and really doesn’t improve them much.
by Cory Lavalette on Jun 18, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Yep, I don’t see roster players moving either, however if we had to take back Ryder so be it, he’s not worth $4mil but he’s proven to effective in a 2nd or 3rd line role. It’s really going to come down to how good the Canes think Seguin is. If he turns out to be a Bobby Ryan or JVR, I don’t think they should do it. If he turns out to be a Malkin or Spezza then pull the trigger.
I’d take a Bobby Ryan thisquick. 66 goals combined the past two seasons … just done quietly b/c all the acclaim went to Getzlaf, Perry, Selanne.
by Cory Lavalette on Jun 18, 2010 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s really who I thought the Canes were going to get back in 2005. It looked like for sure that Johnson was going to Anaheim. I couldn’t imagine what this team would be like with Bobby Ryan. They wouldn’t be picking #7 this year if they had him though, that’s for sure.
I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.
Heck, we would have been just as good trading down and taking Marc Staal.
I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.
There are some players in there. And don’t forget Luc Bourdon. He looked like he was going to be a solid player before he passed away.
I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.
There are some good names in there. Jack Skille will be on the Hawks next year. He was just stuck behind a load of talent this year. Carey Price is in there. Devon Setoguchi. These guys are above the level of solid NHL players already.
I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.
Ryan would’ve been a bit of a surprise even if he went third. Thankfully the Canes didn’t end up with Brule or Pouliot, who both, IIRC, ranked ahead of Rayn on most lists.
by Cory Lavalette on Jun 18, 2010 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Not sure a 7th and a question mark 1st next year for a bluw chip prospect would make sense either. I would think it would take a combo of a prospect and pick(s), maybe boychuck and the 7th pick. Since Boston is facing cap problems, they would also probably want to unload some dead weight salary on the trading partner which doesnt fit with Carolinas financial plans either.
I will personally offer to drive up to Boston and offer in-person Brindy, Colesy, the 7th and next year’s something-or-other pick for their 2nd.
As much as I salivate at the idea this statement per NHL.com makes me believe we’re keeping 7 and going to try to get an additional 1st rounder after 7:
“We feel very strong that we’re going to get a very good player at seven,” he said. “Then with all the extra picks in the other rounds, there’re a lot of things we can do with them.”
So I’ve got my fingers crossed but really won’t be surprised if we do nothing.
I voted yes. When I first saw the headline my initial thought was Hell Yeah! But that wasn’t a choice. I wouldn’t mind if they offered the 7th and a prospect, maybe throw a second rounder in there as well. As I see it, since the Canes are in a rebuilding phase they can’t start soon enough. If you want to keep the fan interest up during a rebuilding time, show the fans you are willing to do what it takes to win. If this kid is the real deal, which most seem to think he is, I believe it’s worth the gamble. Make it happen, JR!
Make an offer. If Boston says no, than we haven’t lost anything. Take a chance and if they say no we sit happy at 7 and go from there.
Offering two 1st round picks is risky, but so would any other trade. Giving up a 1st seems just as risky as taking Connolly and his “chronic hip problems” in my mind.
Seguin is a guy who will fill seats in a rebuilding time for the Canes. Make the move.
by Clemson Caniac on Jun 18, 2010 12:42 PM EDT reply actions
Gudbranson/Gormley
I think he’d be a good fit here, but I’d rather see us trade up to the fourth pick to draft Gudbranson, or Gormley if Florida takes Gudbranson. I’ve been watching videos of both of them and think they’d pair well with Pitkanen, and we need someone to pair with Joni. Also, we’d have to give up less to get the 4th pick than the 2nd.
I think realistically we could get the 4th pick for Samsonov, our first round pick, and one or two second rounders, maybe a first, second, and third.
Joni Pitkanen
I would also add that we aren’t going to able to afford Pitkanen next year. I wouldn’t be the least surprised if he was moved at some point in the season for a 1st Round pick (especially if we end up trading ours away).
If we can’t keep Pitkanen, that it makes even more sense to do what I said, and trade up to draft either Gudbranson or Gormley. They’ll both fit well with Pitkanen while he’s here, but then we’ll still need some solid defensemen when he leaves, and based on the current roster, we’d only have two solid defensemen in Gleason and McBain, which is only a third of the defense. Both Gudbranson and Gormley look like very solid two-way defensemen. Plus, with their first names (Erik and Brandon), they’d fit right in with the team.
I think you make a good point, but couldn’t Pitkanen be traded for another (offensive) defensemen prospect?
I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.
Pitkanen no no no!!!
No chance we trade Joni next year unless someone makes an offer we can’t refuse!! Can’t believe you even are thinking about it, WHY??
Because he has 1 year left on his deal and because the salary level for this team will be in the mid 40’s. Joni will make $4.5 million next year, after which he will be an unrestricted free agent. If he gets to free agency there will likely be a number of teams trying to sign him which will drive up the price and probably put him out of range for the Canes. My guess, if he isn’t extended before the start of the season, he’ll be traded.
I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.
I love Pitkanen (My personal Jersey is graced with his name), but I have accepted the fact that there is no way in hell (unless we win the Cup next year and gain 5000 STH) that we will be able to afford him next year at his UFA rate. He is simply too good and we are too cheap.
Hey, I like him, too. But, like you, I’m just being realistic.
He was a saviour when we had nothing at all like him. I now fully understand why JR stalked him across two teams to acquire him.
But, like a river, a hockey team is ever-changing. And, like you said, he’s simply too good for our budget.
However, he certainly has gotten us through a very tough period in the D-corps. I’m definitely a fan and will continue to follow him, along with the other scattered ex-Canes, wherever he might land.
From Ryan Kennedy, who I generally don’t agree with:
http://www.thehockeynews.com/articles/34150-The-Straight-Edge-Predraft-winners-and-losers.html
Why I think the Canes should do it
1) The Salary Cap – The best way to maximize the money allowed to be spent on players is to have solid centers. Spending an extra $2million on a center can save you $3 or $4 million on wingers. If he’s a good two-way guy it can also save you some money from the blue line.
2) Draft picks in hand – The Canes have three second this year and already two next year. They can utilize the picks they already have at their disposal to fill the cupboard up with defensive prospects and a forward or two.
3) Existing players in the system – The Canes have a number of strong forward prospects but not true top flight guys. Not saying I don’t like the forwards in the system, but none of them looks to be a consistent 40 goal guy at this point in time. Adding Seguin gives the depth down the middle while the existing forwards can fill in the wing positions.
4) Hesitance to draft defensemen early – It’s well known JR doesn’t like to draft defensemen early. I’m not sure it’s the best strategy ever, but JR does make it work. If the forwards are already decently stocked and you’re not going to draft a defensemen early next season, the pick becomes less critical to the Canes.
5) Ability to acquire more picks this upcoming season – If the Canes are sellers at the deadline this upcoming season then they can move Joni, Samsonov (assuming no buyout), LaRose and Cole. Babchuk could be another potential trade. Now, those guys aren’t likely to bring in a first rounder on their own, but there are a couple of second round picks and prospects that can be acquired for that group. If the Canes aren’t sellers, well, then the pick given up for Seguin won’t be that bad.
6) Solid team for years to come – Staal, Seguin, and Sutter is a phenomenal group of centers. Look at the luxury that Pittsburgh has being able to play Jordan Staal on the third line. Think of the match ups he gets. Well, Brandon Sutter would get those matchups if the team acquires Seguin (or Seguin does).
The only downside I see is if the pick is in the top 3 next year. I fully anticipate that Florida will be in that group given their rebuilding. That means the Canes only need to beat out two other teams, and not win the draft lottery, to avoid a top 3 pick.
I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.
So you’d be OK in giving up the No. 4 pick, but not the No. 3 pick? I really don’t like drawing a line as to where the cutoff is on who will be good and just OK coming out of the draft. I think if you give up a first next year and don’t vastly improve (b/c that’s why everyone’s saying they want Seguin: b/c he can step in now), then the trade is likely a failure.
by Cory Lavalette on Jun 18, 2010 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s hard to draw such a definitive line at this point in time. I picked #3 because I wouldn’t want to do it if the pick is in the top 2, so going with worse than 3 I have a small margin of error.
Personally, I don’t think the team does need to be vastly superior next year to make the trade worthwhile. The only thing that would make it worthwhile for me is if Seguin can be either the second or third center on this team for years to come. Staal’s not going anywhere. Sutter is still on his entry deal. Ward is locked up. McBain is still on his entry deal and Gleason can be extended. To me that’s a nucleus that you can build a championship team around. I don’t think there’s anyway at #7 this year that I would say the same thing about, even Connolly. So if Seguin can be that piece and the Canes avoid being in a draft position to take another similar piece next year then I would call it a win for the Canes.
I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.
I’d be willing to take the long term view, as well. Immediate improvement is not necessary, since we’re going nowhere unless the planets align somehow.
I want quality over quantity, and would easily choose Seguin now for a first-rounder next year…especially since I believe we could regain one through a Joni trade.
Yes, that trade pick may be lower than ours next year, but acquisition of the known talent trumps the unknown talent upgrade that may (or may not) mean at next year’s draft.
This is where it all gets confusing to me … so you’re OK with him being a second or third center, and are willing to basically pay TWO first round picks for that? To me, if you’re going to sacrifice a first, you need to be sure this kid is a star.
by Cory Lavalette on Jun 18, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Malkin is technically a second line center.
I’m taking it that Staal is and will be the first line center. I’d be a little disappointed if he turned in to a third line center, but I don’t see that happening too much given Sutter’s skill set. Sutter is a much more natural third line guy.
I’m not denying that the first round pick next year is a significant piece to give up. That said, when I look at who the Canes have in the system (lots of forwards), what they need out of the draft (defensive prospects), and when they usually take those types of players (second round) I come to the conclusion that getting one top flight forward is better than getting two decent forwards.
I personally think the team has enough decent forwards. Connolly could be the next Patrick Kane, but he could also end up with a walker before my Grandma does. Nino is good, but has a ceiling. Tarasenko would be nice, but I still worry about his willingness to play here. Granlund is a decent option, but I also wonder about his ceiling in the NHL. He seems to duplicate Sutter talentwise, which isn’t the worst option, but it also isn’t Seguin.
I think you need two elite forwards to win in the NHL. Staal is one. The only way this team is going to get another is through the draft. I don’t see one as likely as Seguin available at #7.
I just wish JR would have given up Ray Whitney for Lent.
That’s kind of a copout to say Malkin is a second-line center. That’s like saying Ron Francis was a second line center b/c he played behind Mario in Pittsburgh. That’s more what they call 1A and 1B.
You either have to be convinced that Seguin will be a star or you don’t even think about giving up two firsts for one first.
by Cory Lavalette on Jun 18, 2010 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I think we can all agree that with Karmanos owning the Plymouth Whalers, the Canes management easily has the best resources and contacts to make a finite decision on whether Seguin is worth it or not.
Personally I’m convinced. Also, Seguin may play 2nd or 3rd line Center next year, however that doesn’t mean this will be his long term spot. He is an amazing playmaker, I think in a season (maybe even during this season or on Power Plays) he could easily push Staal to wing.
Also, lets not forget that Seguin has commented many times saying that he can also play Wing. He isn’t just a one trick pony.
I’d love to slot Sutter back into the third line as a dangerous two-way checking center.
Or, leave him at the second line level (at least for a couple of years) and move Seguin up when he’s ready for increased opposition talent.
It’s what this deal does for all the other moving parts, including Staal, that makes it work for me.
I’ve seen enough first-round busts to go for the known brass ring instead, assuming (of course) that we wouldn’t make this move unless the org, who should know him best, thinks he’s the real deal.
Yes, I would burn two first-rounders on him. But, remember, I’m also assuming that we’ll re-acquire a first-rounder next year by moving Joni before the deadline. I’d love to keep him…but, I’m pretty sure we won’t, so that’s the way to get value for the departing asset.
Yes, I would burn two first-rounders on him. But, remember, I’m also assuming that we’ll re-acquire a first-rounder next year by moving Joni before the deadline. I’d love to keep him…but, I’m pretty sure we won’t, so that’s the way to get value for the departing asset.
I’m not ready to concede next year even if we are rebuilding. The “baby” Canes played pretty good coming down the stretch last year.
What in the world in that quoted statement has anything to do with the Canes success (or lack thereof) next year?
I’m simply stating that I think Joni will be moved at the deadline due to his pending UFA status. We can’t afford what his next contract will cost and he may not even fit into our picture by the end of next season, assuming that McBain continues to progress.
That all has little to do with whether we’re a bust or a success next season. Am I missing something?
I don’t see us trading anyone if we are in the playoff mix. I don’t disagree with you that he will be difficult for the Canes to sign as an UFA. I would like to see us try and move up the draft. These are the kind of players that can make the difference in making the playoffs versus winning the ’Cup.
As a GM, Mission 1 is preservation of the value of assets assembled.
Letting a UFA walk out the door without getting anything at all is only excusable if you think you have a Cup team, which is why the Whitney fiasco hurts so much.
We will want and need a pick/prospect combo for Joni…and we’re no Cup team next season. If playoff bound, we will be fine without Joni.
That trade will go down, mark my words. Only question is can we extract a first-rounder for him, or will it be only a second and a prospect.
I'LL TAKE THAT BET!!
No way do you let him go, or trade him, unless someone makes a fantastic offer! Why? He’s still young! Pay him a little more. Big deal. we lose more veteran $$ next year, that will offset his pay, and it sounds like you assume we’re going to be a CHEAPO team forever. I don’t think so!
Not “forever”, but for the near-term future, yes.
And, Brandon Sutter and Jiri Tlusty are RFA that same summer, so there’s where your expiring vet salaries go as those two move from $0.875M and $0.5M respectively to true market value (assuming Tlusty’s still with us, that is), not to mention Cam’s $1.3M programmed raise.
Joni fulfilled a huge band-aid need when we acquired him. But, McBain will fullfill the same need at a much more affordable rate.
Early recognition of the inevitable. It’s a gift.
I'm sorry...
My mind just isn’t programmed to expect the worst, assume the sky is falling, and think you have to bend over and take it! What makes you so sure that the salary budget will be tiny beyond this year?
Well, just where is the source of revenue for it to be increased?
Unless ownership is ready to return to losing money every season, I don’t see a change occurring anytime soon…particularly as soon as the following season.
And it’s not “the worst”. It’s simply reality.
Trading Joni is not a bad thing. We will get return value, just at a lesser immediate cost, since it will undoubtedly be in the form of draft pick(s) and/or prospect(s).
Wow, Joni is Expendable?
Since when? He’s our best (and improving) D-man!! Our revenue will be higher next year (thanks to ASG) due to more season tiks! And if Karmanos is able to get a partner, he may indeed have more resources!
I don’t think he is expendable, but I also don’t think we could even come close to contending with teams that can spend up to the Cap every year when he goes to Unrestricted Free Agency in the Summer.
I think it is a virtual lock he gets traded. It makes me really sad to say so however there is just no way we will be able to afford him unless they increase the budget significantly. Staal, Ruutu, and Cam all have rising salaries and Sutter will need a multi-million dollar upgrade as an RFA.
Do it!
The Canes need top level talent and we are obviously not going to get it via the free agency market (what is it, one top level player in the franchise’s history – Francis in 97?). We have some players in the system right now. Give up next year’s 1st and acquire what SHOULD be an All-Star player. If he flops, then we’re in trouble; but you have to take risks every once in a while. There is only a limited number of times you can pull a Jussi out of the garbage and get a 30 goal scorer.
Triple Gold Juice - It's Potent and Guaranteed to Help You Score!
i see both sides
but i don’t agree…so i’ll do what i normally do…wait for JR to do what ever he will do…and see what shakes out…after all just how many # 7 draft picks in the last 5 years are HOF bound ?? or are even still around for that matter ?? ..
And if it Aint Hockey,It Aint Nothin !!
Nino is The One !
I voted no
Not because I don’t think it would be a great idea, but because the Canes won’t do it. They will not take on the $3-3.5 million in salary for the number 2 pick. I’m not a sky-is-falling guy, but the salary IS falling. Cole, LaRose, Jussi, and Pits are theoretically off the books after 10-11, not to mention some of the younger guys, and I can envision a scenario where they’re all gone come October 2011. If PK’s plan to sell part of the team involves reducing expenses drastically, I think he’d be more likely to move down in the draft than move up. Trade the #7 for Boston’s #15 and next year’s first-rounder (not Toronto’s) and keep salaries at a bare minimum.
I am uncomfortable with the idea that bringing on another owner/ownership group through reducing expenses makes sense. Whomever invests in the Canes needs to be ready to write some checks and face some losses. In this market, at 90% of the NHL salary cap, an owner is probably going to lose money unless the team makes it at least to the ECF if not the Finals. If PK thinks he can bring someone in to “recapitalize” the franchise but who won’t be available to cover losses, then the fans will be rooting for the Kansas City Hurricanes. This franchise is not rock-solid; there are scenarios — including an out-of-town investor — that could lead to the team leaving.
by Gillimus on Jun 18, 2010 9:46 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
NHL Rookie Salary
Isn’t the rookie salary max like $875 (plus up to 50% of that as a bonus)? If they are taking $3-3.5 million in salary for the number 2 pick, wouldn’t it be over 3 years?
It was $875K for the entry-level 2008 draftees, and that number increased to $900K for the 2009 and 2010 draftees. Then there will be bonuses of course (e.g.: games played and signing bonuses).
So if the Canes draft Seguin, it appears his base salary will be no larger than $900K for his first year…
by DesertCaniac on Jun 19, 2010 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m no expert on the numbers and how bonuses work. I was going off the cap hit for Victor Hedman last year, which USA Today listed at $3.5 million. His salary was $900k which negates my argument :)
They are guaranteed bonuses that do count against the Cap. The average final salary IS around $3-3.75 million, both what the Canes would have to pay them and what goes against our Cap.
Theoretically, let’s say the Canes offered Whitney $2.5 million next year but he passed on it up so he ends up walking. Draft Seguin and sign him to a $900K entry-level contract, which is the max allowed. Offer the kid $1.6 million this season in bonuses and boom: that’s $2.5 mil right there IF he plays well enough to earn the extra cash. This is all theoretical of course because Seguin may demand more bonus opportunities, but in this scenario the cap hit would basically be the same for Seguin as it would have been for Whitney.
by DesertCaniac on Jun 19, 2010 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Tyler Seguin’s OHL team (The Plymouth Whalers) is owned by Peter Karmanos. PK has to have a good idea of whether Seguin is going to be a future NHL Star (or has plenty of contacts, coaches, ect. to inform him). I really hope he is convinced and JR makes a move on Draft day. I’d love to see Seguin up in our top-6. He said himself he can play Winger in the NHL, I’m not caught up in the Center aspect.
What insanity is causing the talk about NEXT YEAR?
Because this years budget will be cut doesn’t have anything to do with next year! JR and PK haven’t said anything that i know of concerning next year, so i don’t get where this gloom and doom is coming from! To the contrary, JR has talked about making moves in this draft to pick higher (presumably). they certainly haven’t mentioned anything like getting rid of joni, or jussi. The ASG and increased season tik sales are going to increase revenue this year. That’s a good thing. QUIT WORRYING SO MUCH!!
They are trying to sell a portion of the franchise to a minority owner under the strict business plan that they will operate $10-15 million below the Cap. That is why they had the financial analysis anyway, basically they concluded that the only way to make money is by running the team consistently at around a $40-46 million dollar payroll.
That’s where I start to get concerned JussJuice. If they’re selling part of the team based on a sub-$45 million payroll, will the new minority owner just suddenly agree to $55 million in 10-11? I’m no captain of industry, but even I wouldn’t buy that premise.
$55 million 2010-2011
I think it all depends on who buys into the franchise. If the buyer has a hockey background, then the buyer will realize talent and character drive a team’s success. It takes both to have a winning formula. Similarly, winning = butts in the seats.
Yes, I’m a bit apprehensive right now, too.
The fate of the org hangs somewhat in the balance of just who becomes PK’s partner, even if initially in a minority position.
Could be we get another entrepreneurial maverick billionaire owner that will spend to the cap each year, dreaming of getting their name on the Cup. A rich man’s hobbyist approach that will indeed fill the house if sound management is kept in place.
Or, we could get a corporate buy-in, wherein accountants rule, and we are forever a hamstrung team that will have to play without that superstar edge that cap teams can afford. I doubt this scenario, by the way, but I do also acknowledge that we are at risk.
I’m hoping that PK’s passion for the game and his love of what he has crafted will temper his financial decisions and that we will have something closer to the former extreme of the spectrum than the latter.
Elsker, you may find this difficult to imagine, but I agree with you assessment with regard to the risk if the new buyer is not somebody or some group that puts an emphasis on the passion of hockey rather than trying to deal solely with the numbers.
As we saw this year, the Canes are a better team with the younger guys. Given that, I do believe this team will perform better next season than they did this past one. In other words, we sucked this year and we got the no. 7 pick. I don’t think this team will be picking inside the top 10 or 12 in the 2011 draft, which won’t be as deep as this one. Moreover, having a player like Seguin will only ensure that the Canes don’t have a really high draft pick next year.
The only issue we may have is if PK/JR is willing to add Seguin’s cap hit to the current payroll. I don’t know why they wouldn’t have a problem…draft the kid and then drop this Whitney debacle to help pay for Seguin. MAKE THE MOVE AND DRAFT SEGUIN!!!!!!!!!!
Agree..
I’d make the deal (this yr#7 next yr 1st rd) for #2, and if they balked i’d add swapping cole for ryder, and if they balked, i’d add a 2nd or 3rd this year for next years.
MAKE IT HAPPEN!!
Message to JR
F**KING DO IT!
Most other Eastern Conference teams are trying to improve themselves. Since we are going cheap, at least give me something to be excited about!
Its a smart decision because it would give us 3 very good centers and at least give us a shot at something other than a top 10 pick in 2011. Having Staal, Seguin, and Sutter down the middle would put us as potentially having one of the best center lineups in the league.
Or you can keep the number 7 pick, select Nino or Forbert and remake us in the Panthers mold. Go outside your comfort zone and take a risk!
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by PackPride17 on Jun 19, 2010 10:57 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Isn't that a slight bit of an exaggeration
Seguin is excellent as a prospect; but at this point, he is just that – a talented prospect. To say that the Hurricanes will flounder if they pick one of the other #7 prospects is a slight bit of an exaggeration. Johansen, Niederreiter, Burmistrov, and Connolly are all talented forwards who should develop into a fine NHL players. There is no proof that Seguin will walk into the NHL and be a man among boys. To some degree, it is started to feel as if the myth of Seguin is out-running the reality. If Burmistrov weighed 185 lbs, with his speed, he might well be in the Connolly discussion as a fast, talented forward. If Johansen had developed a little sooner in the season, he would also likely be part of the Connolly discussion. There are no bad choices, and Seguin is not an instant ticket to the Stanley Cup Final.
You’re right that I’m exaggerating. But the key word you used is “slight.”. The organization is known for playing it safe and not taking risk, see the free agents we’ve brought in over the years. If we stayed at 7, I hope they select Connolly or Johansen. Nino could contribute immediately, but let’s be honest – he is a second line winger. See Pittsburgh as a team where having great to really good centers make the team better. I think Seguin would put up respectable numbers his first year, myabe 50 to 60 points. The kids has skill and obviously an excellent work ethic. I think he could progress as quickly as Nicklas Backstrom.
To me, the Canes need to do something that brings excitement and Seguin would do that. If you simply look at the teams on paper (and I understand its just paper), but can you honestly say the Canes are better than 5 Eastern Conference teams? Florida, Toronto; maybe Atlanta, the Isles, and Tampa. We need to improve the team and Seguin would give us the best opportunity to do that!
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by PackPride17 on Jun 19, 2010 11:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
THANK YOU!!!
At this point in time, Caniacs don’t have a lot to be excited about. We will have a very young and inexperienced (albeit talented) team next year. We have no idea how they’ll perform and that drastic cut in payroll isn’t making too many of us happy. In other words, we don’t have that much to look forward to, at least right now. If the Canes stay at no. 7, then they can get a player like Niederreiter; yes he’s a good player, but he probably won’t play with the big club next year and therefore he can’t sell tickets. Plus he won’t exactly get Canes fans to jump with absolute joy. And this is probably the same with the other players you’ll get at no. 7. Getting Seguin will get a lot of us instantly excited.
WE NEED A REASON TO GET EXCITED. THE FANS NEED A REASON TO BUY TICKETS AND GO TO GAMES NEXT YEAR. SEGUIN WILL DO THAT FOR THAT FOR THE ORGANIZATION, AND THE CANES WILL MAKE MORE MONEY AS A RESULT OF PEOPLE PAYING TO GO SEE HIM. IF JR DOESN’T UNDERSTAND THAT THEN HE NEEDS HIS HEAD EXAMINED. HELL, IF THE CANES GET SEGUIN THEN I’LL FLY FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO SEE THE TEAM PLAY IN RALEIGH!
DO THE DEAL JR!!!!!
by DesertCaniac on Jun 21, 2010 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions
You can strap on all the talented wingers you want on an NHL team, but it is strength down the middle that makes a contender.
Build in talent down the middle and it starts making even mediocre wingers look good.
And, I agree with PackPride17. It’s may be the only thing left that could ignite the fan base at this point in time.
Triple S would sell some tickets.
BLAKE WHEELER; TRADE FOR BOSTON'S #15
If I were Jim Rutherford, I would take this deal in a nanosecond. Blake Wheeler and Boston’s #15 pick in the first round for the Hurricanes’ #7 pick.
I have read various rumors about the Bruins wanting to move Blake Wheeler. The Hurricanes really liked Wheeler. Wheeler also fits the profile of a player who can come play for the Hurricanes in 2010-2011. There are plenty of very talented players available for the Hurricanes at pick #15.
http://thehubofhockey.net/?p=2296&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed:thehubofhockey/mjgJ(The+Hub+Of+Hockey)
5. Blake Wheeler RFA Right Wing
Age, size, versatility, and potential: four things that No. 26 has on his side when it comes to contract negotiations. The 23-year-old packed on 15 lbs. during last off-season, but obviously didn’t know how to put it to work on the ice. At 6′5″ 205 lbs., Wheeler has got to learn how to play as a power forward for him to succeed in Boston…or any other city for that matter. Being a restricted free-agent, the Bruins have already extended a qualifying offer to Wheeler…who is also arbitration eligible this season (see below for qualifying offers and salary arbitration).
"I’m calling it": Wheeler gets dealt by this Friday’s draft, along with their 15th overall pick, as part of a package for Boston to move up into the top-7-ish selection.
Wheeler is a nice player that offers some versatility. But does he address any of the Canes needs? Not really and he will be too expensive for the Canes. Also moving down probably gets us a player that is 2 years away from contributing rather than just 1 year away.
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by PackPride17 on Jun 19, 2010 11:44 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I was in the building when Gretzky stunned the crowd by selecting Blake Wheeler 5th overall for the Coyotes.
But, I seriously doubt that a return to the RBC Center is in the cards for him, except wearing a visitor jersey.
That salary budget issue, for one thing. No outside help this year, unfortunately, except possibly at the trade deadline.
And, I would have no interest whatsoever in dropping back in this draft. Seventh is far enough back and, in fact, I’d love to move the other way.
Am I the only one concerned that this “going cheap” is the first step toward not having the Carolina Hurricanes? If the investment firm is saying PK needs to cut $10M; I take that as the Canes are losing $10M a year. An owner cannot continue to support a sports team losing $10M a season. Maybe I’m over-reacting here, but I see this as the first step toward relocation. This is the smallest market in the NHL and maybe professional sports (big 4 sports). While Raleigh continues to grow, I don’t think it will grow fast enough to bypass any other pro sports towns. If PK cannot find an invester that has deep pockets, this may be the beginning of the end for this franchise in Carolina. We have made huge strides, but going cheap is not going to solve the revenue problem. It actually would probably further deepen the revenue issue. I hope I’m wrong, but signs are pointing to this market not being able to support an NHL franchise.
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by PackPride17 on Jun 20, 2010 12:49 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yes, you are over-reacting and Wheeler
PackPride17, step back from the ledge. The Hurricanes are not moving. The NHL is not going to let the Hurricanes move and Peter Karmanos is not going to try.
Blake Wheeler is a former #5 pick, who is a proven NHL talent. At 6’5" and 205 – 215 lbs he is adds the big, fast, wing the Hurricanes need. There is still a ton of talent at #15; and the Hurricane could also trade some of the draft choices to move back to the #9 to #12 range. In essence, the Hurricanes could translate their #7 pick into three first round draft choices.
Seguin is a tremendously talented player, but remember that Peter Karmanos knows Seguin as well as anybody in the NHL. If Karmanos and Jim Rutherford felt Seguin was the Hurricanes’ last missing piece, they’d make the trade.
AD, I’m just saying look at from a business point of view. The NHL is converting again the haves & have nots. Certain teams are spending to the cap each year (they can also afford to stick some NHL contracts in the minors) and others are spending to the cap minimum. For all the NHL is trying to do with Phoenix, there is still a real possibility of that team eventually moving. There are also other teams that look to be heading in similar directions (Atlanta, Florida, Nashville, Columbus, the Islanders). I’m not saying it is going to happen, but this is a step in that direction.
And while there is talent lower in this draft, you have to see that the further down you go; the longer you will wait for that prospect to be NHL ready. The Canes have a good number of prospects that project to be good to above average NHL players, but they are missing the very good to elite prospects. Moving down in the draft tends to lead to move good prospects and further away from the very good prospect.
Like I said, Wheeler is a nice player, but doesn’t address the Canes primary needs. Also, for the money he is likely to be rewarded, the Canes could use that for a better player. Wheeler is player that fits somewhere between 2nd line and 3rd line, we need a top 6 (preferably someone that could play 1st or 2nd line).
And I think PK knows Seguin is the type of player the Canes need. I think he is just hesitate to give up what would be required to get him. As I stated, this organization is not known for taking risks. They are VERY conservative and like to make the safe moves (see all the re-acquires we have made; those are the definition of safe picks because you have a general idea of what you’re getting). Someone in the organization needs to convince management to take a risk!
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by PackPride17 on Jun 20, 2010 11:28 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Seguin versus Wheeler
Seguin is at best a second line center for the Hurricanes, even assuming he can beat out Sutter for that position. Of course, Seguin is awesome, and nobody could argue otherwise based on what we all know about him. Wheeler is a potential first line wing and is not worse than a second line wing. Wheeler has outstanding talent and the Hurricanes would not have to give up their future to get him. Wheeler has also shown he is ready to play. The Hurricanes would be crazy not to get Seguin if they could do so without mortgaging their future; but why in the world would Boston not refuse anything but a king’s ransom for Seguin? As such, it seems like a pipe dream to me. We will know soon.
Wheeler was a 3rd line Winger for the Bruins, I think at very best he is a 2nd line Winger. Maybe another bandaid for our 1st line, but he certainly does not have the talent to be called a 1st line Wing.
Seguin is a future top-line player. Why does he have to be Center? He has said multiple times that he can play Wing in the NHL. Personally I’d look for any option that would move Staal over to the Wing anyway, Staal is just awful on the face-off. We probably have literally lost games solely due to Staal’s horrible face-off %, it is nowhere near any comparable 1st line Center.
Blake Wheeler
I disagree with your assessment that Blake Wheeler who has only played two years in the NHL is at best a second line wing. He is 23 years old and his future is quite bright. The Seguin love far outpaces anything he has produced in the NHL. Seguin didn’t even make the Canada World Championship team. Seguin is an excellent prospect, but the huge adoration he is receiving seems to be more the subject of media PR than the result of people watching videos of him. For example, I would ask respectfully, how many games have you seen Seguin play? I have had a hard time finding Seguin game videos. Do you have a link for some games in which Seguin played?
I watched all of his Playoff games through Livestream and was pretty good at keeping up with at least the highlights from most of his games later in the season.
What games have you ever watched when Blake Wheeler looked like a 1st line Winger? His point totals last year went down from his rookie year (45 to 38) and he played largely a 3rd line role in Boston… Personally I like him but I would never call him a 1st line Wing (nor do I think he even has the potential to do so). I think he would eventually be a good 2nd line guy, which we already have plenty of.
AD, really? Wheeler has never proven to be a 1st line player. I know you like him because of his size, but he is NOT a 1st line caliber player.
If we somehow got Seguin, he would probably start next season as our 3rd line center. From there he could in many directions. He could move to the 2nd line center and shift Sutter to 3rd line (similar to Staal in Pittsburgh) or he could move to the 1st line and play center or wing. Then the Canes could ACTUALLY have 2 legitimate 1st line players playing on the top line (I know its an unusual concept here in Carolina).
And AD, you have been the biggest supporter of giving the kids the reigns to the team (even though they have not proven they are ready). Now you seem to want an average experienced player (while young) instead of what is considered an elite talent. I really don’t understand how you would like this team built. It seems as you would be happy with 3 solid 3rd lines.
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by PackPride17 on Jun 20, 2010 2:51 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The Canes need to be moving up in the draft, and not down. Plus I really don’t think JR would be willing to bring on his salary.
by DesertCaniac on Jun 21, 2010 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Philly picked up the rights to Hamhuis for Parent & a conditional 2011 pick! I know Hamhuis probably wants more money than PK is willing to spend, but couldn’t we have offered an equal or better return? I think Hamhuis would have been a great compliment to Pitkanen and given us a VERY solid top 4 D.
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by PackPride17 on Jun 20, 2010 2:29 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Draft choices
As someone pointed out, the only way the Canes are going to get someone who can be “the man” for the team is by the draft. In the playoffs, I think there are times when it is the “big” players who make the difference. A big part of why we lost to Pittsburg last year was that Staal and Cam were outnumbered 3-2 by Crosby, Malkin, and Fleury. Whitney was injured (fingers?) that series, or he might have been able to temporarily provide the third guy, or enough to make a big difference. We need the third guy, and none of our prospects are of that level. I don’t know that Pitkanen will ever be of that level, but we’ll certainly hurt if we lose him because of $$$.
I’ve been a lurker here for a while,and I can only say “hope springs eternal in the human breast”. I’d much rather have a good to excellent player now, than a draft choice. So I’m generally against trading players for draft choices. But choices for choices, to get a chance at “da man”, is worth the risk.
Excitment about the Organization
With the upcoming All Star Game there is already a hockey buzz in Raleigh that is drawing more attention to the Canes. But, if you bring in a young talent the whole view of the organization changes amongst the surrounding public.
There is no better or relevant example than the Washington Nationals. For years the Expos and now Nationals were the cellar dwellers of the NL East and barely averaged 10,000 fans a game. They bring in an electric Stephen Strasburg and now they are filling up the stadium to 45,00+ on days he starts. What better way to gain revenue than to have a sell out every night because the city is excited to see one of the soon to be elite players in the league.
Further more proof is right here on the very blog. LewPuls and I with another 3-4 first time posters were are so excited to get this guy in the red and black that stepped out of our cyber shelter and voiced our opinion because we are excited about the prospect of even making a move on draft day to acquire him. If we do draft Seguin just try and imagine how exciting RBC will be once the Canes return from Finland. Just Imagine!
From a business aspect, PK will be much more likely to find a deep-pocketed investor who is willing to put money into a team with great potential and an avid fan base.
by Clemson Caniac on Jun 20, 2010 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
JR on 99.9 The Fan the other day said exactly that. He was asked about Crosby/Ovechkin turning Pittsburgh and Washington from cellar dwellers to being sold-out every night and agreed that an elite player can fill the house.
One of the reasons I have serious hope that they feel that way about Seguin. They know him better than any other Owner or GM does, if they feel Seguin has Superstar potential, I trust they will follow this logic and make a run at him.
Brind'amour
I forgot to mention, who was the third guy in 2006? Rod B. But we have no one to replace him. (Though remarkably enough, we did get him in a trade, didn’t we?)
For Those Hoping for a June Draft Day Seguin Miracle - Ottawa Sun Mock Draft
http://www.ottawasun.com/sports/hockey/2010/06/19/14450681.html
Bruce Garrioch has this prediction:
“7. CAROLINA: This is an organization that is cleaning house and is trying to get younger. Don’t be surprised if they try to move up to No. 2 to get Seguin. Pick: Brett Connolly, LW, Prince George.”
Where there is smoke there is fire… Almost every sports outlet in the World has had a story or commented about Carolina either talking trades with Boston or trying to move up to #2, I don’t think it can be coincidence.
Especially when I think it is kind of understood that ANY team would love to move up and get their hands on Seguin. Yet the Canes keep getting singled out.
Here’s my question: If Seguin is do amazingly, indescribably fantastic, why in the world would the Bruins trade him unless they got a highway robbery deal like they extracted from Burke for Kessel?
Kessel went for two first Round picks (unknown picks at the time) and a second. Any deal involving us getting Seguin would likely take our #7 Overall pick and our 1st Round Pick next year. Very similar deals. Whether they are highway robbery or not depends on how good of a player Seguin turns out to be (and how much he helps our team next year). I guarantee the Kessel deal wouldn’t look so bad if the Leafs finished middle of the pack and Boston had two mid-round picks. Hindsight is 20-20, if you won’t take the risk you won’t get any rewards.
Would you agree that Karmanos and JR probably know better than anyone else in the NHL (due to PK owning Plymouth) exactly how good Seguin is? If they do believe he could be a superstar, do you think they will make the move?
They might not, that’s why you have to offer them a kings ransom. They obviously need wingers and their team is older than ours. If we can offer something that they could use (even if they trade what we offer) to get to a Cup Finals; they would probably do it. Chara is not going to be around forever and they must capitalize on having him in his prime, same with Savard.
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by PackPride17 on Jun 20, 2010 3:05 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Why would Boston trade the rights to draft Seguin for picks?
Because they can’t afford to acquire him next year, knowing that he’s NHL ready and really should not be buried in juniors for another year.
At the seventh spot, they can draft someone that needs a year more incubation.
Economics in a salary-capped world, that’s why they would trade. To defer having to spend cash now for perceived benefit down the line.
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