Carolina Hurricanes: Status report on the budget and the roster
by hockeymomof2 on Jul 12, 2010 6:30 AM EDT
33 comments
With the few additional signings last week, we find ourselves at a point where we can sharpen our pencils and see exactly where the Hurricanes organization stands as we ready for the 2010-11 season, both in terms of dollars committed and remaining roster spots to be filled. Reviewing these exchanges, it's been a hectic few weeks, and if you've kept up with all of it, at the very least, you deserve a gold star.
A few weeks ago, on June 21, we listened to GM Jim Rutherford explaining that, in the context of efforts to recapitalize the franchise with a new minority partner, the budget for the Carolina club's NHL salary for next season would be set close to the cap floor, since determined to be $43.4 million. For many of us, this was when it became all too apparent that, if that budget number held true, Hurricanes alternate captain Ray Whitney was unlikely to return next season. We also didn't know what would be happen (if anything) in the handling of the remaining year of Rod Brind`Amour's contract. Or was Sergei Samsonov a potential buyout candidate? Was it possible there were other free agents that Rutherford might bring in? How would the numbers work then, especially to add some grit and experience to the blue line?
After the jump, I've got the current numbers and a downloadable spreadsheet to enable you to better take on the role of "Armchair GM" between now and October, when we find out which 22 or 23 players will head overseas for the Hurricanes' exhibition game in St Petersburg, Russia, followed by the 2010-11 season opener in Helsinki, Finland.
What's happened since June 21st?
With the addition of AHL All-stars Bobby Sanguinetti and Jonathan Matsumoto via trade at the Entry Draft June 27th, and the signings of restricted free agents Jerome Samson, Zack Fitzgerald, Justin Peters, Casey Borer, Nicolas Blanchard, all to two-way contracts, we have a better sense of the depth that might be in the mix for a spot on the roster for the Hurricanes, or at the least, will be part of the Charlotte Checkers' first season in AHL minor league hockey.
As for the veteran NHLers, on June 30, Rod Brind`Amour announced his de facto retirement and his plan to transition to a front office role. The next day, July 1, Ray Whitney signed with the Phoenix Coyotes, closing the door on any hopes he might return to Raleigh. As we were told to expect in April, it was announced on July 1 that Anton Babchuk would be bringing his [loose] canon of a slapshot back to Carolina, signing a one-year/one-way contract. And most recently, this past Wednesday, 33-year-old defenseman Joe Corvo took a cut in pay to return to the Canes and play with his former teammates and an organization with whom he felt he fit in very well.
Where does all this stand now?
So after all these decisions and contracts, what's left to accomplish over the next couple months? Because it seems this year's roster and salary status will be especially fluid throughout the season, I created a workable Excel spreadsheet that allows those of you who are so inclined to follow along as changes happen. You can download by clicking here: CC Salary worksheet 2010-11.
Below is a "fixed" look at the status of the team with what we know today. Clearly I've made some assumptions which I admit may be completely faulty as to who ends up in Raleigh and who plays in Charlotte. I was focusing more on the budget than the talent and positional strengths. That's why you may want to download your own sheet and get it the way YOU would place the players, and then have a solid grasp of the financial results in your proposed scenario.
| Canes Country Roster/Salary Worksheet | ||||||||
| 2010-11 Season | ||||||||
| HURRICANES (NHL) ROSTER | Other Players w/Contracts (Two-way) | |||||||
| (players in gray cells have 2-way deals) | (also known as: the AHL roster - not payroll) | |||||||
| Name | NHL Cap Hit | NHL Salary | Name | NHL Cap Hit | NHL Salary | |||
| FORWARDS (13) | FORWARDS | |||||||
| Eric Staal | $8,250,000 | $7,500,000 | Oskar Osala | $850,000 | $785,000 | |||
| Tuomo Ruutu | $3,800,000 | $4,000,000 | Chris Terry | $750,000 | $625,000 | |||
| Erik Cole | $2,900,000 | $3,000,000 | Stefan Chaput | $548,333 | $565,000 | |||
| Sergei Samsonov | $2,533,000 | $2,800,000 | Cedric McNicoll | $610,000 | $550,000 | |||
| Chad LaRose | $1,700,000 | $1,900,000 | Jared Staal | $566,667 | $550,000 | |||
| Jussi Jokinen | $1,700,000 | $1,900,000 | Matt Kennedy | $566,667 | $550,000 | |||
| Tom Kostopoulos | $916,667 | $950,000 | Patrick Dwyer | $500,000 | $500,000 | |||
| Brandon Sutter | $1,225,000 | $875,000 | Jerome Samson | $512,500 | $500,000 | |||
| Zach Boychuk | $1,195,833 | $875,000 | Matthew Pistilli | $521,667 | $500,000 | |||
| Drayson Bowman | $845,833 | $687,500 | Nicolas Blanchard | $512,500 | $500,000 | |||
| Zac Dalpe | $875,000 | $637,500 | 11th Forward | |||||
| Jiri Tlusty | $500,000 | $500,000 | 12th Forward | |||||
| Jon Matsumoto | $512,500 | $500,000 | 13th Forward ? | |||||
| Total Forwards | $26,953,833 | $26,125,000 | ||||||
| DEFENSEMEN (7) | DEFENSEMEN | |||||||
| Joni Pitkanen | $4,000,000 | $4,500,000 | Michal Jordan | $606,667 | $580,000 | |||
| Tim Gleason | $2,750,000 | $3,000,000 | Brett Bellemore | $533,333 | $555,000 | |||
| Joe Corvo | $2,250,000 | $2,000,000 | Kyle Lawson | $552,500 | $540,000 | |||
| Anton Babchuk | $1,400,000 | $1,400,000 | Zack Fitzgerald | $500,000 | $500,000 | |||
| Bobby Sanguinetti | $855,000 | $765,000 | Casey Borer | $500,000 | $500,000 | |||
| Jamie McBain | $850,000 | $685,000 | 6th D-man | |||||
| Jay Harrison | $500,000 | $500,000 | 7th D-man? | |||||
| Total Defense | $12,605,000 | $12,850,000 | ||||||
| GOALTENDERS (2) | GOALTENDERS | |||||||
| Cam Ward | $6,300,000 | $5,000,000 | Mike Murphy | $783,333 | $630,000 | |||
| Justin Peters | $525,000 | $500,000 | 2nd Goalie | |||||
| Total Goaltenders | $6,825,000 | $5,500,000 | ||||||
| Total Salary for roster players | $44,475,000 | |||||||
| # roster players | 22 | |||||||
| BUYOUTS | ||||||||
| Frantisek Kaberle | $733,333 | $733,333 | ||||||
| Rod Brind`amour | $3,600,000 | $1,000,000 | ||||||
| SALARY CAP | $59,400,000 | w/buyouts: | ||||||
| PAYROLL | $50,717,166 | $46,208,333 | ||||||
| CAP SPACE | $8,682,834 | |||||||
The first thing we notice is that if the Hurricanes financial analysts don't "count" the buyout amounts, at $44.475mil, Rutherford is still in that $44 to $45mil range that he stated was the goal three weeks ago. However, if the Kaberle and Brind`Amour buyout costs are applied to the total (there is something less than straightforward about this guesswork, agreed?), then he stands at $46.2mil and change. If a couple of the more expensive contracts are moved from the AHL to the NHL side of the ledger, that number goes up a bit more. Whichever accounting strategies are applied, it seems unlikely that there is room for anyone else receiving more than league minimum salary to be added this summer; at least, not without a major reconsideration from owner Peter Karmanos, Jr and his advisors to the anticipated sale.
The second thing to realize is that the Hurricanes have just 38 players under contract. Even at a bare minimum of 20 on the roster in Charlotte, there are likely four more positions to fill: two forwards, a defenseman and a goalie. Likely a 13th F and 7th D would be signed as well. And if/when there are injuries beyond those small margins, will they turn to the ECHL's Everblades, or decide then to sign another warm body to fill the void.
What happens next?
According to the free agent tracker the Canes have on their website, these are the remaining unsigned RFA's whom we can expect are first in line for those vacant spots (I've listed last year's salary amount as well).
Nick Dodge (C)..................$500,000 (09-10)
Bryan Rodney (D)...............$600,000 (09-10)
Justin Pogge (G)................$600,000 (09-10)
Even adding these three players, there are still not enough bodies to fill all the open spots. Who else can we expect has an open file on Rutherford's desktop labeled: "TBD: Potential Contracts"? Certainly newcomer forwards Riley Nash and Jeff Skinner are subject to further discussion. Skinner, at 18, will only be added if he is ready for the NHL. (Agreements between the leagues stipulate that CHL major junior players be at least 20 years of age before they are eligible to join an AHL team.) Nash is 21 and therefore could play at either level.
Then there are six established older pros who are now free agents, who played in Albany (and/or Raleigh) last season, but have yet sign anywhere. Will they return? The Canes have stated that the door is always open to Brett Carson and Alexander Picard to re-visit contract talks, and negotiations with versatile tough guy Tim Conboy were ongoing as of June 28th.
D/F Tim Conboy
As we continue to anticipate and analyze contract announcements as they are made, you might like to make use of the spreadsheet [here again: CC Salary worksheet 2010-11 ] and work through the lineups and resultant budget figures. And, finally, if you can work out a scenario by which we can fit in a competitive offer sheet (or trade) for Marc Staal, we want to hear it.
Enjoy your Monday!
Thanks to capgeek.com for many of these numbers. For a longer view of existing multi-year contracts, refer to the Canes Country Unofficial Salary Chart, always conveniently listed in the left rail on the front page.
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I work with Excel spreadsheets all day long.
So why am I so excited about this one? LOL
Totally geeked about this. Well done HM!
:D
Phoblographer and Finn Aficionado
SISU
I have to admit I have an unnatural attraction to spreadsheets – going back to the late 1980s when I was starting out in architecture in an office in LA and they discovered I was The One to be in charge of the generating the program sheets for their RFPs. Better than crossword puzzles! :hangs head and covers face at this confession:
Twitter @HMof2
by hockeymomof2 on Jul 12, 2010 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
hey – at least you weren’t given the title for “Lotus Notes Queen” from your help desk team. YUCK! Where’s that puking emoticon jenniwa30 uses? Insert one here!
"The increase in pain is way beyond what you would expect a person to play with," said coach Paul Maurice. "Unfortunately it’s even beyond what Tim Gleason can play with, because he can play with just about anything."
Spreadsheets are the absolute best thing in life, other than hockey. A hockey related spreadsheet is therefore the greatest combination of two items. I have sheets for just about everything. My personal favorite is a pretty good one for retirement calculations if anyone wants that. It’s set up for folks with 401 (k) and Roth IRAs, but it could work for any defined contribution plan with a company match.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
I’m imagining the hockey connection for your retirement sheet. (Glad to know I’m among friends)
Twitter @HMof2
by hockeymomof2 on Jul 12, 2010 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Bravo,Bravo,Bravo!!
Steve has never worked with any spredsheet and while i have heard of Excel, but I has a question of HM2…where do you find the time ? Dang, you must be super organized…again..thank you,thank you, thank you…and here you had a fear that this summer would be boring…Pfffttt! hehehe
And if it Aint Hockey,It Aint Nothin !!
That Checkers 3rd Sweater ROCKS !!!
Great work, HM2!
Thanks for providing a Rutherford’s-eye-view of the world.
by curiouscanesfan on Jul 12, 2010 9:40 AM EDT reply actions
Skinner's salary after he signs: cap buster?
Last year’s number 7 pick, Nazem Kadri, would get $1.72M at the NHL level, according to capgeek.
If Skinner gets a similar deal and rules prohibit sending him to Charlotte, that would seem to be a substantial hit against the Canes’ self-imposed salary cap. The Canes can get substantial savings by sending Boychuk, Bowman, Dalpe, and other two-way prospects down to Charlotte. The Canes are stuck with Skinner’s full salary if they don’t send him back to junior before he plays 10 games.
That would seem to work against Skinner’s making the NHL roster this year unless a) he’s amazing in preseason or b) the Canes figure Skinner’s presence will put fans in the seats and generate revenue greater than the incremental cost of his salary vs whichever other player would take that roster spot.
Would playing Skinner add $1.2 M in revenue on the year? That’s the approximate difference between Skinner’s likely salary and a $500,000 player like Matsumoto, Dwyer or Samson.
Interesting how being considered lesser prospects works against Samson and Matsumoto making the NHL roster despite their terrific performance in the AHL, but lower salaries work in their favor.
Will the best prospects make the roster, or the best prospects who fit under the self-imposed cap?
by curiouscanesfan on Jul 12, 2010 10:07 AM EDT reply actions
Good question on Nazem Kadri. One thing to remember about CapGeek is that it assumes its users are really worried about Cap Hits and staying under the ceiling, and less driven by actual Salary (cash flow). That was one reason I customized this information for our use.
If you go to the player page there for Kadri, you’ll see that is salary is $850,000. Only performance and signing bonuses and other achievements would push the expense up so high and need to be included if one is concerned about cap issues. (the “+” sign next to the dollar sign over at CapGeek indicates that bonuses are included and may not be applicable)
Take a look at the makeup of the numbers for Taylor Hall. It appears that the signing bonus ($270,000?) cap hit is spread over 3 years.
That said, hopefully signing bonuses for Nash and Skinner, if they happen this year, are “below the line” in the self-imposed budget.
I also think that the financial “hit” of moving the 2-way players/prospects around for 20-40 games really isn’t consequential enough to worry about, with the possible exception of moving a one-way player to Charlotte (like Harrison) and needing to pay him the big league salary. In round numbers AHL salaries are 10-20% of the NHL figure.
Twitter @HMof2
by hockeymomof2 on Jul 12, 2010 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Great info, HMof2
I missed the distinction between salary and cap hit, including bonuses. Must be huge bonuses for those high picks. I’m not clear how, when the Canes focus is on cash outlays, they wouldn’t count bonuses immediately on laying them out. But I know zilch about accounting.
by curiouscanesfan on Jul 12, 2010 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
James Neal
I think it would be awesome if the Canes could take a look at James Neal from Dallas. He is a young, big, future 1st line sniper RFA on Dallas, a team that is extremely cash-poor and may not be able to sign the young gun. Reports are Dallas is afraid he is going to get an offer sheet, wonder what it would take to pry him away from them. He would look GREAT next to Staal and Skinner and he would probably only cost $2-2.5 million a year.
Plymouth Whaler, too … but I doubt Dallas will let him go.
by Cory Lavalette on Jul 12, 2010 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Hmm.. I think the Whaler tid-bit at least makes it a little more interesting (Maybe 5% chance instead of 1%?). True, Dallas probably wouldn’t let him go for anything more than a 1st Rounder or a few good prospects. However they are hurting badly for cash (more-so then the Canes even) because their owner is going through bankruptcy… It is hard not to like what Neal does though, 24 and 27 goals in his Rookie and Sophomore season. He could turn out to be a consistent 30-40 goal scorer.
Hmm.. I think the Whaler tid-bit at least makes it a little more interesting (Maybe 5% chance instead of 1%?). True, Dallas probably wouldn’t let him go for anything more than a 1st Rounder or a few good prospects. However they are hurting badly for cash (more-so then the Canes even) because their owner is going through bankruptcy… It is hard not to like what Neal does though, 24 and 27 goals in his Rookie and Sophomore season. He could turn out to be a consistent 30-40 goal scorer.Zach Boychuk + Chad Larose
for
James Neal
Hmm.. I think the Whaler tid-bit at least makes it a little more interesting (Maybe 5% chance instead of 1%?). True, Dallas probably wouldn’t let him go for anything more than a 1st Rounder or a few good prospects. However they are hurting badly for cash (more-so then the Canes even) because their owner is going through bankruptcy… It is hard not to like what Neal does though, 24 and 27 goals in his Rookie and Sophomore season. He could turn out to be a consistent 30-40 goal scorer.Zach Boychuk + Chad Larose
for
James NealThey get a cheap, hard working 3rd liner in Larose and also a top-flight prospect in Boychuk and we get a line-mate for Staal while trading out some salary. I’d kill for a future 1st line talent like Neal.
Awesome posting lag… fixed
Hmm.. I think the Whaler tid-bit at least makes it a little more interesting (Maybe 5% chance instead of 1%?). True, Dallas probably wouldn’t let him go for anything more than a 1st Rounder or a few good prospects. However they are hurting badly for cash (more-so then the Canes even) because their owner is going through bankruptcy… It is hard not to like what Neal does though, 24 and 27 goals in his Rookie and Sophomore season. He could turn out to be a consistent 30-40 goal scorer.
Hmm.. I think the Whaler tid-bit at least makes it a little more interesting (Maybe 5% chance instead of 1%?). True, Dallas probably wouldn’t let him go for anything more than a 1st Rounder or a few good prospects. However they are hurting badly for cash (more-so then the Canes even) because their owner is going through bankruptcy… It is hard not to like what Neal does though, 24 and 27 goals in his Rookie and Sophomore season. He could turn out to be a consistent 30-40 goal scorer.Zach Boychuk + Chad Larose
for
James Neal
Hmm.. I think the Whaler tid-bit at least makes it a little more interesting (Maybe 5% chance instead of 1%?). True, Dallas probably wouldn’t let him go for anything more than a 1st Rounder or a few good prospects. However they are hurting badly for cash (more-so then the Canes even) because their owner is going through bankruptcy… It is hard not to like what Neal does though, 24 and 27 goals in his Rookie and Sophomore season. He could turn out to be a consistent 30-40 goal scorer.Zach Boychuk + Chad Larose
for
James NealThey get a cheap, hard working 3rd liner in Larose and also a top-flight prospect in Boychuk and we get a line-mate for Staal while trading out some salary. I’d kill for a future 1st line talent like Neal.
Is this some brainwashing technique you are trying to perfect?
Is it October yet?
by hotchipsnsalsa on Jul 12, 2010 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I wonder if a deal with Philly could be done for Gagne. Maybe if they took Samsonov or Cole back the salaries could work out while still gaining a 1st line Winger for Staal. With Philly solely looking to clear Cap space I’d bet he would come cheap and it is pretty low-risk with 1 year left on his contract.
Now that would be a move that would indicate they are seriously looking to go for a Playoff run this season. I wouldn’t mind seeing any proven 1st line Winger up on a line with Staal.
They just announced that Nick Dodge has been signed. You can plug him in at
“a one-year, two-way contract. The deal will pay Dodge $500,000 at the NHL level and $55,000 at the minor-league level in 2010-11, with a guarantee of $75,000.”
Twitter @HMof2
Nick Dodge
We’ll set another place at the crowded table for him…but, I’m pulling for him.
He’ll be tons of help for Coach Daniels and a respectable 4th-line center and PK guy for us, if called upon to perform.
Led the Rats (now Checkers) in plus/minus last year and was a former Clarkson captain and MVP award winner as a character reference…also happens to be a faceoff specialist.
One salary budget for Canes and Checkers?
Granted, salaries in Charlotte probably total about $2 M, around 5% of the total in Raleigh. But the Dodge contract makes it sound as though there’s one spreadsheet for the AHL and NHL teams. With the league cap irrelevant, the cost number that matters to potential investors would be all the personnel costs that the Canes are contractually bound to pay, wouldn’t it?
Since high-level prospects like Boychuk ($350K) and Dalpe ($237.5K) get paid more substantial amounts in the AHL than the typical $50-$65K, promoting them to the Canes doesn’t add as much cost overall. If I’m understanding this right, promoting Boychuk adds $525000. Promoting Dodge adds around $450000.
The lower level prospects don’t really offer much of a cost advantage to the Canes over the top guys. The Canes have little reason to economize on promotions from Charlotte.
by curiouscanesfan on Jul 12, 2010 5:55 PM EDT reply actions
Hoping this makes sense, but it’s the random rambling after a long day:
Looking at it from the viewpoint of someone who watched Albany last year I would say from those unsigned I’d pick: Carson, Goertzen, Angelidis (who’s a forward btw, not defence) and Pogge – though only heard Pogge play in away games, didn’t actually witness any play. Only glaring thing I heard that he needed to work on was defending on a shootout. Then as AHL signings, at least to start, pick up Micflikier and Herauf. While I would love all the boys to get 2 way contracts that is obviously not realistic. I feel like I’m forgetting something. I’ll post when I figure out what it is :)
Not Conboy? I do hope Micflikier joins the group in Charlotte. Don’t know enough about Herauf.
Thanks for the correction on Angelidis. Not sure where I picked up his D status incorrectly. Probably Capgeek.
Twitter @HMof2
by hockeymomof2 on Jul 13, 2010 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Conboy if picking an additional Forward, but not if they’re looking for Defense. I’ve been more impressed defensively with Carson and Goertzen than Conboy.
As for Herauf, the off the top of my head description is that he’s a pest and a workhorse. He does not appear to have any concept as to his size in relation to the other players on the opposing team. He’s not a high scorer, netting 5 goals and 6 assists last season, but he does what he needs to in order to let the people who do score score. My personal observation is that he tends to confuse and irritate his larger opponents when he challanges them due to his size (5’11, 195) and the fact that he’s usually laughing at them during the trash talk in the penalty box.
re: Angelidis D/F – could be because though he tends to predominately play forward, he’ll jump in where he’s needed. Speaking of which. A player I’d like to see return, but that I don’t see listed here is Jonathan Paiement. This guy bounced back and forth between D/F last season to the point where I forgot he’s a forward. I think at the very least he’d be an asset to the Checkers.
I’ll get something up in the next day or so. Tied up a lot of loose ends in the last 7 days, eh?
Twitter @HMof2
by hockeymomof2 on Jul 19, 2010 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions
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