Carolina's Leaders in Scoring Consistency For 2009-10
by Bob Wage on Jul 14, 2010 2:30 PM EDT
65 comments
Eric Staal was the leading scorer for the Carolina Hurricanes last season and he also averaged more points per game than any other Cane. But Staal's critics will point out that he seems to do his scoring in bunches. That is, he will load up on points in certain games when he is hot, but then will disappear for a number of games in a row.
After the jump, let's take a look at a report showing the scoring consistency of all the Hurricanes last season.
The following chart shows the player's name, the number of games he played, the points he scored, his points per game average, the games played when scoring a point, and finally the percentage of games played while scoring a point. The results have been sorted by that percentage.
| Player | GP | Total | Points | GP | % of GP |
| Points | per game | w/point | w/points | ||
| Staal | 70 | 69 | 0.99 | 43 | 61.4 |
| McBain | 14 | 10 | 0.71 | 8 | 57.1 |
| Jokinen | 81 | 66 | 0.81 | 45 | 55.6 |
| Whitney | 80 | 58 | 0.73 | 42 | 52.5 |
| Cullen | 60 | 40 | 0.67 | 31 | 51.7 |
| Sutter | 72 | 40 | 0.56 | 34 | 47.2 |
| Rodney | 22 | 11 | 0.5 | 10 | 45.5 |
| Pitkanen | 71 | 46 | 0.65 | 31 | 43.7 |
| Ruutu | 54 | 35 | 0.65 | 23 | 42.6 |
| LaRose | 56 | 28 | 0.5 | 20 | 35.7 |
| Samsonov | 72 | 29 | 0.4 | 25 | 34.7 |
| Tlusty | 18 | 6 | 0.33 | 6 | 33.3 |
| Cole | 40 | 16 | 0.4 | 12 | 30 |
| Corvo | 34 | 12 | 0.35 | 10 | 29.4 |
| Samson | 7 | 2 | 0.29 | 2 | 28.6 |
| Gleason | 61 | 19 | 0.31 | 17 | 27.9 |
| Boychuk | 31 | 9 | 0.29 | 8 | 25.8 |
| Carson | 54 | 12 | 0.22 | 12 | 22.2 |
| Kostopoulos | 82 | 21 | 0.26 | 18 | 18 |
| Brind'Amour | 80 | 19 | 0.24 | 17 | 21.3 |
| Dwyer | 58 | 12 | 0.21 | 11 | 19 |
| Ward, A | 60 | 11 | 0.18 | 11 | 18.3 |
| Harrison | 38 | 6 | 0.16 | 6 | 15.8 |
| Walker | 33 | 5 | 0.15 | 5 | 15.2 |
As you can see, not only does Eric Staal have the highest points per game average, he also has the highest percentage of games played while scoring a point.
We all know that the big center loads up on points when he gets hot, (he does hold the franchise record for hat tricks), but according to these results, he's also the most consistent scorer on the team, (regarding points earned per each game played).
Another myth busted.
Surprisingly enough, Jamie McBain came in second. Will he be able to keep up his numbers?
Not surprisingly, Jussi Jokinen came in third, with Whitney, Cullen, and Sutter rounding out the top six. (Regarding Corvo and Cullen, these numbers just include games played while with the Canes).
Bryan Rodney scored well in the few games he played, but the team might not need him now that they are stocked with offensive minded defensemen. Undoubtedly, the Canes would love to have him in Charlotte, but perhaps he's holding out for an NHL deal.
Jiri Tlusty spread his scoring out and according to these results was more consistent in scoring than Erik Cole.
You know what they say about statistics and those who purvey them, but we will continue to dig out stats for conversation sake during this long offseason.
(with help from Dobber Hockey)
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Line Combinations and Scoring Efficiency
An interesting set of statistics that I am trying to gather is the impact of line composition on scoring.
www.dobberhockey.com allows you to check line combinations. It is a fascinating set of data.
I did that last year for 2008-09.
http://www.canescountry.com/2009/7/28/965242/last-years-top-line-combinations
Editing Manager of CanesCountry.com
very interesting numbers, but i’d be interested to see the numbers for players with similar PPG as staal. He averages near 1 PPG, but still doesn’t score in 38% of games
dany heatley played 82 games this year with 82 points. he scored in 55 of them for a GPw/Points% of 67.1 (besting staal by over 5%)
Take a look here. It doesn’t have the answer, but it’s a start. It’s the top 40 players in the NHL based on PPG. I may look at what you said in more depth. It may be an interesting data point as it pertains to fantasy hockey drafting. That said, I may be reluctant to share if CanesCountry is doing fantasy hockey drafts again this upcoming season.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Stepping it up a notch or two
Very interesting analysis. If there’s anyone on that list we’d like to nudge up a few notches, it’s probably Cole and Ruutu, both of whom may have been playing injured for a portion of last season.
The goal for both should be something closer to a half-point a game pace, in my opinion, both from a skill and a money standpoint, with perhaps more pressure on Ruutu ($4M next season) than Cole ($3M next season) to perform at that level.
McBain is the pleasant surprise, but admittedly a limited data set and they were certainly giving him every chance to succeed at that point in the season.
Eric is the best......
Well its like Jared Staal said “Eric is the undisputed star of the team”.
Like him or not, Eric is BY FAR THE BEST PLAYER the Canes have, and now the best leader in the locker room.
Carolina Hurricanes! Your 2011 Stanley Cup Champions!
Yeah, because 100-point seasons just come with asking nicely.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 15, 2010 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Consider too that Staal was playing injured for some of those 43 games where he didn’t log any points.
And to defend my Finn, even playing injured (which we know he did) he averaged .65 points per game last season, which extrapolates out to 53 for a full season and is just shy of his career high of 54. I’m not sure how realistic it is for him to be producing at a higher clip than that (knock wood he’s healthy enough to try next season).
Phoblographer and Finn Aficionado
SISU
Ruutu in 2010-2011 and Lessening the Hitting Burden
Ruutu is capable of carrying more of the scoring burden if the Hurricanes can find some players to lessen Ruutu’s responsibilities as the hitting machine. Ruutu is not a finesse player and hitting is a critical part of his game; but to the extent players like Bowman, Osala, and Tlusty show the willingness to make open ice hits, it frees Ruutu to focus energy offensively. One potential benefit from not re-signing Whitney is that it opens a roster spot for the young forwards. Whitney had a multitude of hockey talents, but hitting and physical play were not his best skills.
Osala, Bowman, and Tlusty all showed an increasingly physical game as the season progressed, specifically including their time with the Rats. Osala played a physical game in the WCs as well. I feel certain they realize they can speed their entry onto a full time position with the Canes if they are willing to hit their way onto the team.
Far better to have a star who disappears at times during the grind of a season than one who disappears in the big games. Staal plays big in big games.
_ He played well in the 06 playoffs.
_ He carried the team in the final month of ’08, when short of two bad games by Ward they make the playoffs.
_ He was a stud against the Devils and Boston in the ’09 playoffs.
Seems to me that the previous legit star of this team had a rep for the exact opposite. Then there is that big guy out in San Jose.
To whom do you refer?
Francis?
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 15, 2010 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
The guy DID put up 50 assists three seasons in a row.
I’d take that from any of our young crop at C.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 17, 2010 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I think a more interesting look would be to plot the score of the game vs. the number of points Staal had. I would think 2 points in a 2-1 game is much more important to us than a 6 point hat-trick in a 4-0 blowout of the thrashers. I think point quality would be a statistic which would quiet detractors (if it showed a positive result, which I don’t believe it will).
Staal killed in games and, I recall, did it when the team killed. He didn’t show up when the team needed him. I think that is the beef.
.......Too...............many...........numbers.....
I’m glad some people are good at math and statistics!
Satan is just a coping mechanism for monotheists.
What?
Anyone who thinks that Erik Staal is not one of the best players on the planet just does not understand hockey. He is Carolina Hockey. Without that guy, the Canes would not be anywhere close to legit. No Brodeur tantrum, no cup, no finals, no Canes. Stupid…. Stupid….stupid…. Even critical with the stats right in front of your face!!!! Just crazy.
by KenRab on Jul 14, 2010 7:29 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 1 recs
‘Eric Staal’ just remember his name ends with a ‘C’ not K…… C is for captain.
Carolina Hurricanes! Your 2011 Stanley Cup Champions!
C is not for captain.
C is for COOKIE.
"Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?" -- Oddball, from Kelly's Heroes
[My Hockey Photoshops] [My Music] [Beat a Dead Horse]
by Raccoon Fink on Jul 14, 2010 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Bubba, I knew it was a matter of time before you would post the Staal is God blog.
My love is for this team, not one player. It’s sad and pathetic to see grown people here who can’t separate themselves from a player verus a team and to continue to think that Staal is the mesiah of hockey and this team. Talk about stupid.
When are we going to start the excuse for Staal blog? Let’s see, last year at this time it was his wife was expecting a baby and then she had the baby and he lost sleep and couldn’t concentrate on his game to play good. Then the wingers just were not helping him out so he could play good…he ALWAYS plays injured (for the last 2 years) and the list goes on…What will it be this season?
Now why don’t you post Staal’s minutes played last season compared to the other players on the team with goals against minutes played average and see what they show? I’m thinking the player who averaged playing 20 plus minutes a game is going to have a higher percentage of goals scored. DUH. Let’s see, two players plays the same number of games, but one player plays 20 minutes and the other player plays 5 minutes and the 20 minute player scored more goals, hmmm, now let me think…wait I’m still thinking…ding, ding, ding, the 20 minute player has the higher average. Figures you would make your stats work out this way (Staal’s way). Of course I expect nothing less of you and others.
Hey did you get an upgrade in your press row seat (wink)?
Maybe you should change the name here from ‘Canes Country’ to ‘Staal Country’, it would be so much more fitting. So good to see your all about the team and not just one player (cough, cough).
C
Jeez pal, who pissed in your cornflakes? I think its a little unfounded to accuse Bubba of being a “Staal Lover”. Even if he is, I for one dont believe his writing is so biased that the name should be “Staal Country”.
he has a point though regarding the stats. im not saying the writing is bias in any way and I love this blog, but staal DOES average about 4 minutes more TOI than jokinen and sutter. I’m also certain that staal probably averages more PP TOI than anybody else, so it should be expected that he has the highest %GP w/P
by ECUCanesFan on Jul 14, 2010 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I can agree with that. But thats probably the same on all teams. Of course the star player is gonna play more minutes. Do the Canes have any forwards that you think should play more than Staal? Im not necessarily a “Staal Lover” but I do feel that hes the best player on our team, and is a very dominant player. I dont believe that any other player on our team would be capable of matching Staals point totals if given matching TOI. This team goes as Staal goes. Hes a point a game guy. It could even be argued that his linemates succeed because the competition is keyed in on him. I think he receives negative criticism because of who he is and the expectations. When we win its because Staal carried us, when we lose, its because Staal let us down. Either way, he may have a point, I just felt that his comment was a little disrespectful towards Bubba. I know that bashing writers is commonplace on most blogs like espn, puckdaddy, etc. But this here blog’s kinda different in that were all friends and regulars, kinda like family. To disagree is one thing, but his post seemed a little “attack like” to me. Kinda smart-assy and clearly aimed directly at Bubba.
speaking of bias
I’m new on this blog but have seen no sign of the bias you describe, c59. Bob Wage comes over as a Canes fan, but not one who consistently exaggerates the Canes’ talent or skews favorable coverage toward one player.
What skews coverage toward Staal in every outlet that covers hockey is Staal’s performance and the fact that the Canes live or die based on Staal’s ability to score in the teeth of opposing defenses focused on stopping him.
Staal may get more time on the ice, but what I notice most is that he gets pounded relentlessly by the other team’s defense because he’s head and shoulders above the other Canes offensively. The Chris Prongers of this world try to crush Staal. The pounding Staal takes is why he gets hurt and can’t play at peak efficiency. It’s incredible that Staal puts up the numbers he does.
Jokinen and Sutter are excellent players, but their stats would fall if they got as much defensive attention as Staal does. Did Staal score 70 points in 70 games because teams were focused on stopping Jokinen, or did Jokinen score twice as many goals as ever before because teams were focused on Staal?
Staal’s stats would rise if the Canes had another major goal scoring threat. You can see this by looking at past years when the Canes had more firepower and by looking at the firepower on other teams.
When Staal scored 100 points, the Canes had three other 30-goal scorers, and three other players with 70 or more points. On that year’s Canes, Jokinen’s stats from last year would have made him the number 5 scorer on the team. Sutter’s stats would have made him the 11th leading scorer on the 2005-2006 team. That was when Brind’amour and Cole were still major scoring threats with more than 30 goals each, and Ray Whitney wasn’t the 3rd offensive threat on the Canes but the 8th. What happened to Staal? The complementary firepower on the team declined because of age, injury and budget.
Staal isn’t as good as Ovechkin, but Staal would look better if the Canes had Backstrom and Semin. Staal isn’t as good as Crosby, but Staal would look better if the Canes had Malkin and Jordan Staal. Against the Blackhawks, teams can’t just focus on Toews or Kane or Hossa. Against the Flyers, you have to worry about Richards, Carter, Briere and Gagne. The Lightning has Lecavalier, St. Louis, and Stamkos. Thank God the Canes have Jokinen and Sutter, but it’s not the same as having any of the other names in this paragraph. We can only hope that Skinner, Boychuk or another Canes’ prospect turns out to be the major complementary threat that the Canes need.
Not only do the Canes lack the luxury of putting Kovalchuk or Gagne or Semin next to Staal or on another major scoring line, the Canes don’t even have a big guy with average offensive skills to put on the line and take some of the physical pressure off Staal.
Among big-time stars, Staal’s situation may be most like Iginla’s. They’re different players, but both suffer when their teams lose other scorers. The Flames lost Cammalleri and Iginla’s production dropped from 89 points in 82 games in 08-09 to 69 points in 82 games last year. Is Iginla overrated, or do the Flames need other threats?
by curiouscanesfan on Jul 15, 2010 8:50 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
+12
I like you!
Triple Gold Juice - It's Potent and Guaranteed to Help You Score!
by PackPride17 on Jul 15, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
You also can’t deny the fact that Staal shows up when it matters most – the playoffs.
In 2006 he had 28 points (9G, 19A) in 25 games. In 2009 he had 15 points (10G, 5A) in 18 games including the winner of Game 7 in New Jersey. Thats 43 points in 43 games which makes the math pretty easy to see that he is point per game player in the playoffs. A time when many big-name players go into hibernation.
Compare that Ruutu who has had 4 points (1G, 3A) in 16 playoff games and Whitney who had 26 points (12G, 14A) in 42 playoff games as a Hurricane. That’s not meant to disparage either of those two as it is to say #12 shows up and leads the Canes when they need it the most.
Yeah, well, you know, that's just like, uh, your opinion, man.
Great points. I’d add that Staal got nonstop attention from Pronger and Chara in a fair portion of those games. And in the rest of the games, he faced the opponent’s best defenseman, whoever that was.
by curiouscanesfan on Jul 15, 2010 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Excellent post.
Rec’d.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 15, 2010 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
c59
well, this one cracked me up….lol
1. I didn’t make up the stats, they came from a neutral site.
2. We will look at minutes played and goals allowed. (as well as other stats) But you might be disappointed in the results.
3. It’s too bad, you must have totally missed the past month of draft coverage, conditioning camp coverage, and all the exit review articles for every Hurricanes player, (still under process and none for Staal yet).
4. No upgrade in seating yet, but after a few more Staal articles you can expect to see me in the owner’s box. (wink)
5. (Staal Country?) I can’t remember when we did the last Staal related article, (months ago?), but we will certainly have more.
Editing Manager of CanesCountry.com
Logo Update
I took the liberty of updating the logo for you. Even if you don’t end up changing the name, I’m sure canescup will use this a bunch. ;)
"Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?" -- Oddball, from Kelly's Heroes
[My Hockey Photoshops] [My Music] [Beat a Dead Horse]
by Raccoon Fink on Jul 15, 2010 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, if you are going to change the logo you need to add a video so it plays when you enter this site. Maybe something like this:
Is it October yet?
by hotchipsnsalsa on Jul 15, 2010 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Sweet!
Am I dreaming or is this really becoming “Staal Country?”
Triple Gold Juice - It's Potent and Guaranteed to Help You Score!
by PackPride17 on Jul 15, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I knew you’d like it. ;)
"Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?" -- Oddball, from Kelly's Heroes
[My Hockey Photoshops] [My Music] [Beat a Dead Horse]
by Raccoon Fink on Jul 15, 2010 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions
huh?
I believe if you have read any of the game threads last year you will see that Staal is ripped on as much, if not more than any other player. As far as actual posts by the authors of the site – I think they just state facts. Some may be written and spun positive or negatively but I have never got the impression that this blog was pro-Staal all the time.
Also, he plays more minutes simply because he is our best player, biggest offensive threat and the captain. Other than Pitkanen, I can’t think of anyone else I would rather see playing more minutes than Staal. He scores goals and produces offense so he gets more ice time, not vice versa in my opinion.
Yeah, well, you know, that's just like, uh, your opinion, man.
Ok....Sparky....
Staal also plays against every team’s best defenders. Put that in your Stats pipe and smoke it.
You must be CRAZY
If anything this blog site needs MORE Staal love. Not enough mentioned about Staal in my opinion.
Carolina Hurricanes! Your 2011 Stanley Cup Champions!
Anyone else think the conclusion is flawed?
I believe it to be precisely backwards. If you take the points per game and divide that by the games played with points percentage it give you a ratio. Staal’s is 1.5. Sutter’s is 1.2. Wouldn’t that mean that Sutter is not as “streaky” as Staal?
For the gamblers out there if Staal scores a point, it is a fifty% chance he will score another.
good call
That’s exactly right. The only “myth” that is busted with these stats is that “Staal has a lot of games where he doesn’t score any points”. If the thought is Staal scores 0 points or bunches, this only takes out half of the myth.
The numbers don’t say he doesn’t score in bunches, it mainly says he scores at least one point in more games than anyone on the team. To me, based on these numbers, I would say:
1) Staal is more reliable to score 1 point than anyone else on the team.
2) Given Staal scores one point, he is much more likely to scores more than others on the team
To me, the takeaway is—Staal is streaky when it comes to the variance of his point totals per gam, but he’s more likely to score at least a point than anyone else.
by chrisbrasfield on Jul 15, 2010 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Staal scores at least point in a higher percentage of games played than any other Cane. Still not sure what is flawed about that, but you can interpret and manipulate the numbers anyway you want, depending upon how you define the word “consistent”. If scoring in 47% of games played is being more consistent than scoring in 61%, than yes, Sutter is more consistent.
I did mention in the article he still scores in bunches, (franchise leader in hat tricks).
Editing Manager of CanesCountry.com
not disagreeing with you...
I’m saying this doesn’t dispell the myth that Staal is either multipoint or one point (not several points every game)— his “off” night is at least 1 point. This is precisely why Staal is an elite player.
What i’m saying is, this doesnt say anything about the variance of his point totals per game—which I think some people complain about.
I think he’ great so you’ll hear nothing from me :) I think you’re great too :)
by chrisbrasfield on Jul 15, 2010 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
thanks :-)
Everything is open to interpretation. I don’t agree with the “minute analysis” above either. If LaRose plays 20 minutes a night and 4 a night on the PP, and Staal plays half that, I don’t think that means he’s going to outscore Staal.
But I could be wrong. (shrugs) Will work on the minute analysis tonight.
Editing Manager of CanesCountry.com
hmmm
would be interesting to see:
1) points per minute stat for the canes. obviously this would need to be written in some sort of scientific notation to be readable probably
2) staal’s standard deviation for the ppg stat. that’d be very interesting. maybe for everyone if its easy as then you could see if its erratic or consistent
by chrisbrasfield on Jul 15, 2010 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Staal has shown himself to be the team’s most talented forward and what he has accomplished in a short career is beyond impressive. He does have areas he can improve; but anyway one chooses to analyze the data, Staal comes out as the team’s key offensive player. What is most hopeful to me is that the organization is adding talent at forward. When the young kids get their game going, Staal and the rest of the forwards get the benefit of that improved play. Skinner seems to be a player who will ultimately be on Staal’s line; and he could be that scoring winger many of us believe will elevate Staal’s game.
What he has accomplished in his short career...
Eric Staal has become one of just 24 players to join the Triple Gold club. That means winning an Olympic Gold, World Championship Gold, and a Stanley Cup quite an accomplishment for someone his age.
It was my interpretation of "streaky" that may be different
in my mind, a streaky player would more often score a point in a game where he already has. Stall is about fifty percent getting more points when one is already scored. “Streaky”
Or-how often does a player go without scoring any points? Stall had seven sections of two or more games without a point. Three of them were three games or more. To me this would not be streaky, but rather fairly steady.
or he had 26 games with one point, 17 with multiple. at his level of point production, this seems fairly consistent. Two were five point games, which is just cool.
Looking at the game log from last year, it seems obvious to me that people complaining about Staal’s point production are pretty much just whining. Unfortunately he couldn’t rouse the team form it’s early slumber, but as he got better production, we started winning more games. He scored points in 21 of 28 wins he played in.
Sadly he also had a bad first sixteen games-1 or 0 points in each of them.
In conclusion, to me the easiest analysis leads one to believe that he is streaky, but looking closer at the numbers, not so much. Sure he took advantage of the weaker teams for some of his large point games, but he also got one against Washington. I think he does what we pay him for, and I think he can do more for us if the stars align a little better for us next year.
Anybody remember the Crosby and Ovechkin goal-less streaks in this year's playoffs?
It may be that the best scorers score clusters of goals and points because they’re so good at scoring. If the people matching up can’t stop them in the first period, they’ll have trouble stopping them in the second and third.
And if the other team can matchup pretty well, what happens? We just saw that in the Cup finals. Toews and Cane were getting stuffed against the Flyers until the Hawks moved Kane to a different line. After that, Pronger couldn’t continue playing every shift against them both. The Hawks could suddenly score again, and the Flyers and Pronger seemed demoralized because they had no answer. Or maybe Pronger was just worn out from playing so many minutes in so many games.
We don’t get quite the same effect when we move any other Canes’ player from Staal’s line to another as the Hawks got by moving Patrick Kane.
by curiouscanesfan on Jul 15, 2010 5:06 PM EDT reply actions
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