Consistency, Part Two: Goals and Points Scored Per Minute Played
by Bob Wage on Jul 23, 2010 2:45 PM EDT
45 comments
Did the scoring leaders for the Carolina Hurricanes also play the most minutes?
Last week, I published a report with some statistics indicating that Eric Staal was more apt to score a point in each game he played in, than any other Cane. Some of you asked me to dig a little bit deeper, thinking that maybe the reason Staal scored more points was simply because he played more minutes per game than any other forward.
Let's see the results when we look at these new ratios.
The following three charts show the total minutes each forward played for the season, number of minutes played at even strength, and number of minutes played while on the powerplay. Included are the appropriate goals and points each player scored for each category.
Simply dividing one column by the other gives us a ratio of goals or points scored, per minute played for each criteria.
| Total Time | Total | Total | Total | Total | ||
| On Ice | Goals | Points | G P M | P P M | ||
| Whitney | 1532 | 21 | 58 | 0.014 | 0.038 | |
| Staal | 1450 | 29 | 70 | 0.020 | 0.048 | |
| Jokinen | 1362 | 30 | 65 | 0.022 | 0.048 | |
| Sutter | 1191 | 21 | 40 | 0.018 | 0.034 | |
| Cullen | 1141 | 12 | 40 | 0.011 | 0.035 | |
| Kostopoulos | 1028 | 8 | 21 | 0.008 | 0.020 | |
| Brind'Amour | 1017 | 9 | 19 | 0.009 | 0.019 | |
| Samsonov | 963 | 14 | 29 | 0.015 | 0.030 | |
| Ruutu | 885 | 14 | 35 | 0.016 | 0.040 | |
| LaRose | 879 | 11 | 28 | 0.013 | 0.032 | |
| Dwyer | 725 | 7 | 12 | 0.010 | 0.017 | |
| Cole | 655 | 11 | 16 | 0.017 | 0.024 | |
| Yelle | 552 | 4 | 7 | 0.007 | 0.013 | |
| Boychuk | 333 | 3 | 9 | 0.009 | 0.027 | |
| Walker | 324 | 3 | 5 | 0.009 | 0.015 | |
| Tlusty | 226 | 1 | 6 | 0.004 | 0.027 | |
| Bowman | 108 | 2 | 2 | 0.019 | 0.019 | |
| Samson | 59 | 0 | 2 | - | 0.034 |
Our first table shows total time on the ice along with total goals and points scored per minute. Jussi Jokinen scored the most goals per minute played followed by Staal and Sutter. Interestingly enough, Ray Whitney's numbers seem inflated due to his extra time on the ice. His per minute goal ratio was also lower than Samsonov's, Ruutu's, and Cole's.
Whitney played 80 games while Jokinen played in 81, yet Whitney played 170 more minutes. That difference is simply a coaching decision. No doubt about it, Jokinen needs more time on the ice.
Jokinen tied Staal for most points scored per minute. Tuomo Ruutu came in second while Whitney placed third.
| EV S | EV S | EV S | EV S | EV S | ||
| TOI | Goals | Points | G P M | P P M | ||
| Whitney | 1209 | 14 | 39 | 0.012 | 0.032 | |
| Staal | 1097 | 16 | 47 | 0.015 | 0.043 | |
| Jokinen | 1066 | 20 | 41 | 0.019 | 0.038 | |
| Sutter | 929 | 16 | 30 | 0.017 | 0.032 | |
| Cullen | 805 | 9 | 28 | 0.011 | 0.035 | |
| Kostopoulos | 836 | 6 | 18 | 0.007 | 0.022 | |
| Brind'Amour | 817 | 7 | 14 | 0.009 | 0.017 | |
| Samsonov | 798 | 12 | 22 | 0.015 | 0.028 | |
| Ruutu | 720 | 9 | 23 | 0.013 | 0.032 | |
| LaRose | 754 | 10 | 17 | 0.013 | 0.023 | |
| Dwyer | 600 | 7 | 11 | 0.012 | 0.018 | |
| Cole | 543 | 9 | 14 | 0.017 | 0.026 | |
| Yelle | 404 | 3 | 6 | 0.007 | 0.015 | |
| Boychuk | 311 | 3 | 8 | 0.010 | 0.026 | |
| Walker | 309 | 2 | 4 | 0.006 | 0.013 | |
| Tlusty | 210 | 1 | 6 | 0.005 | 0.029 | |
| Bowman | 94 | 1 | 0 | 0.011 | 0.000 | |
| Samson | 59 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.034 |
This time we will look at even strength time on the ice. Again, Ray Whitney leads the way with time on the ice, but not so much in production.
Jussi Jokinen is first with most goals scored per minute followed by Brandon Sutter and Erik Cole. Eric Staal comes up fourth.
This is a good picture perhaps indicating that Erik Cole has not lost his game as much as some have thought. If he could stay healthy and play more minutes, according to this table, his goal scoring numbers should go up.
Eric Staal is number one with most points scored per minute played, (at even strength). Jokinen was second, Matt Cullen was third.
| PP | PP | PP | PP | PP | ||
| TOI | Goals | Points | G P M | P P M | ||
| Whitney | 319 | 7 | 19 | 0.022 | 0.060 | |
| Staal | 294 | 13 | 23 | 0.044 | 0.078 | |
| Jokinen | 273 | 10 | 24 | 0.037 | 0.088 | |
| Sutter | 138 | 5 | 10 | 0.036 | 0.072 | |
| Cullen | 205 | 1 | 9 | 0.005 | 0.044 | |
| Kostopoulos | 13 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Brind'Amour | 111 | 2 | 5 | 0.018 | 0.045 | |
| Samsonov | 164 | 2 | 7 | 0.012 | 0.043 | |
| Ruutu | 162 | 5 | 12 | 0.031 | 0.074 | |
| LaRose | 16 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Dwyer | 5 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Cole | 74 | 2 | 2 | 0.027 | 0.027 | |
| Yelle | 5 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Boychuk | 21 | 0 | 1 | - | 0.048 | |
| Walker | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0.067 | 0.067 | |
| Tlusty | 13 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Bowman | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0.071 | 0.071 | |
| Samson | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Finally, let's look at the highly coveted powerplay time. Once again Ray Whitney led the way with most time on the ice, but he showed his mettle here with a second best 12 goals and .038 ratio. ( Corrected -- Whitney scored just seven PP goals for a .022 ratio). Eric Staal led the way with the most goals scored and the highest ratio of goals scored per minute played.
Jokinen came in second with Brandon Sutter close behind in third.
The Finns also showed their skill here with total points scored as Jokinen placed number one, Staal second, and Ruutu third. Brandon Sutter was in fourth.
What does this comparison show us? Each of us can take what we want from the numbers, but here is my take.
- Jussi Jokinen definitely needs more ice time. He was among the leaders in every category even though his ice time was third best.
- Brandon Sutter also needs more ice time, especially on the powerplay. While some might think he does not have enough experience or skill to be productive there, the ratios indicate otherwise. He will surely get more time as second line center this winter.
- Eric Staal was the leader, or among the leaders, in every "per minute" scoring category. That indicates to me that his scoring results are not just based upon the number of minutes he plays.
- On the other hand, the team might not miss Ray Whitney as much as some of us think. The extra minutes played seem to have helped to inflate his numbers more so than any player. His per minute scoring ratios were much lower than I expected.
- Tuomo Ruutu and Erik Cole had fairly good results. It looks like their overall scoring numbers were low primarily because of the missed time on the ice. Their "per minute" ratios were fairly close to the leaders in most categories.
1 recs |
45 comments
| Add comment
|
Email
Print
Comments
I’ve always been a big advocate of PPM becoming a more prominent stat. I remember being real excited the ‘Canes signed Jeff Hamilton because his PPM on the Hawks was awesome. That didn’t work out great, but still. Good stuff here.
http://www.prosportsblogging.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on Jul 23, 2010 2:48 PM EDT reply actions
LOL...
It worked out really well…for a couple weeks.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 29, 2010 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for providing this insightful analysis, Bob. I feel better about the Canes’ ability to get by without Whitney, and encouraged about the potential for greater contributions from Cole and Ruutu. You’ve made a powerful case for increasing Jokinen’s and Sutter’s TOI.
Most of the prospects got too little TOI to support conclusions, but it may be reasonable to draw positive inferences about Boychuk’s and Tlusty’s ability to deliver points given even strength time. Those two got more minutes than the other prospects, and the 0.026 and 0.029 PPM even strength at least suggest they’re going to do OK for the Canes this season.
by curiouscanesfan on Jul 23, 2010 2:58 PM EDT reply actions
Very impressive analysis that provides a useful perspective.
Just as the shooting percentage stat provides a quantitative way to judge the efficiency of goal scorers (but not so much assist specialists), this points per minute stat seemingly gives a much more thorough feeling of the productivity of an offensive player.
So, Staal vindicated. Sutter with even more respect than before. And Jokinen continues to be “under-appreciated”, even as we appreciate the heck out of him.
Unanswered questions are far less dangerous than unquestioned answers.
I still just get out of this that STAAL is our BEST player.
Carolina Hurricanes! Your 2011 Stanley Cup Champions!
by canescup on Jul 23, 2010 3:31 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
This.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 29, 2010 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions
When this is the tweet announcing the article:
Consistency, Part Two: Goals and Points Scored Per Minute Played – Jokinen and Sutter need more ice time.
I don’t really need to read it to know I like it. But I did read it. :) Nicely done Bob.
"What Carolina really has going for them is Brandon Sutter. When that kid first showed up, he looked like a skinny little thing that wouldn’t last two weeks. But he’s turned into a real star."
Ray Whitney had 7 PP goals, not 12. I think you got the goals and assist column mixed up for him (the 19 PP points is correct).
To add to the bit about not missing Whitney as much as previously thought: Ray Whitney received first line ice time, first unit powerplay time and usually the best linemates on the team and scored….58 points in 80 games. That is not good. If you are averaging 19 minutes a game with no PK time and you can’t score 60 points and provide nothing in the way of physicality or defensive play, then you probably aren’t very good. Some people excused his huge drop in production production because of the team he was on, yet failed to notice that the team was 13th in goals scored and scored just 10 fewer goals total than the season prior (the “bad team” came from the inability to keep the puck out of their own net rather than a poor offense).
I am dead serious that if you were put Samsonov on the first line and first powerplay unit for the entire season and never remove him regardless of whatever slump he is mired in, he could probably put up 45-50 points (don’t laugh…Samsonov put up 48 points two seasons ago with less ice time and a slow start). But, again, that is second line production in a first line role. We’ve gotten to a point where we are routinely throwing players in roles they do not deserve, which gives them a boost in point totals (that still aren’t good enough) and an inflated value that leads us to pay 1st line money for 2nd line talent, 2nd line money for 3rd talent, and so on. And THAT’S how you wind up at the cap ceiling with no first line winger like last season.
I think Ray will be missed simply because of that “key moment” factor; where he would find the player streaking to the net or pop one in himself. But I also have said for quite some time that Ray Whitney is not a 1st line player. This actually indicates that assumption on my part could be correct; at least in regards to last season.
Triple Gold Juice - It's Potent and Guaranteed to Help You Score!
When given a chance.....
The young guys will be making those plays soon enough…
by KenRab on Jul 23, 2010 7:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
When given a chance.....
The young guys will be making those plays soon enough…
by KenRab on Jul 23, 2010 7:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
1) Ray Whitney is a very talented player, and to say that the young kids will be doing that implies that they will all be as good as Ray. A couple might, but I can’t see all of them doing it. However, if they do that would be great. The team would be loaded.
2) When is “soon”? This is the question I’ve been asking all along. There’s no doubt that there are some talented players in this system, but we can’t simply assume that they will come up and immediately produce consistently.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Kahz - thanks
Thanks, i did copy that from the wrong column. Now corrected and his numbers are even worse than before on the powerplay.
Editing Manager of CanesCountry.com
I absolutely agree – just because you put a player on the first line doesn’t mean he’s talented enough to be there. I cringe every time I see someone list Rosey on Staal’s line. Don’t get me wrong, I really like LaRose. He’s a great roll, and third line, player. But he is not a top line winger, no matter how we try to dress him up.
Thank God the Canes didn't scrape together enough money to resign Whitney
I didn’t want the Canes to resign Whitney because he was in decline, but my perception of the level he was declining from was way too high.
He definitely made memorable passes but I’m still puzzled by how I got such an exaggerated impression of his actual performance. In retrospect, it seems strange NOT tp realize it wasn’t so much that others benefited from his playmaking as that he benefited from so much time on the ice.
It will be interesting to see whether Whitney helps the Coyotes—at $ 3 M per year.
And for the Canes, part of the value of losing Whitney will be making more ice time for Jokinen and Sutter as well as the prospects.
by curiouscanesfan on Jul 23, 2010 6:32 PM EDT reply actions
Whitney
Cory,
My impression was that Ray Whitney had a post trade deadline slump. Do your numbers show a difference in his effectiveness after the first thirty games with Whitney becoming of a score during the last thirty games or so?
Bob, I apologize;
Bob, I apologize. Yes, I meant Bob and not Cory.
Bob,
what did your analysis show in terms of Whitney’s statistics through the first 30 days as compared with his statistics for the last thirty games he was a Hurricane?
sorry adog, the numbers are season totals taken from NHL.com and inserted into a spreadsheet. I agree Whitney had a season ending slump and that is certainly reflected in these numbers, but I can’t tell you the specifics.
Another thing to keep in mind. Sutter’s and Jokinen’s ice time increased as the season went on and as other players were either moved out (Cullen) or time was reduced, (Brind’Amour).
Editing Manager of CanesCountry.com
How Badly Do You Think Whitney's Absence Will Be
After looking at the statistics do you have thoughts one way or the other as to how badly Whitney’s absence will be for the team’s performance?
That’s hard to say just looking at these numbers, but I was surprised at the results for Whitney. None of us know how meaningful these numbers really are though.
Whitney had 2.3 times more playing time than Sutter did on the powerplay. Does that mean Sutter would have scored 11 goals and totaled 23 powerplay points with equal playing time? (2.3 times his numbers)
That’s what we will find out this coming season.
Stats can only show us a small picture of things, and of course they also give us something to talk about during the summer. :-)
Editing Manager of CanesCountry.com
Hey ADog – you can always check out Whitney’s “gamelog” for the season here if you want to crunch the numbers yourself. I’d be interested to know.
Twitter @HMof2
by hockeymomof2 on Jul 23, 2010 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions
will do; but it will be Sunday night. I’ll wear flipflops to double my counting speed.
Sent via Ipad
LOL Not sure you’ll need to go over 10 anyway, but I appreciate your commitment to the cause.
Twitter @HMof2
by hockeymomof2 on Jul 23, 2010 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions
15 points in his first 20 games, 9 points in his last 20 games
by ECUCanesFan on Jul 23, 2010 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Here is Whitney's stuff by month
A DOG: he stunk it up after the trade Deadline
Month Pts Per m Goals Per Min
Apr 0.000 0.000
Nov 0.031 0.009
Mar 0.031 0.006
Oct 0.036 0.018
Dec 0.044 0.016
Feb 0.051 0.022
Jan 0.061 0.024
2 years to the Cup
try again PTS PER MINUTE
Month Pts Per Minute
Apr 0.000
Nov 0.031
Mar 0.031
Oct 0.036
Dec 0.044
Feb 0.051
Jan 0.061
Grand Total 0.039
2 years to the Cup
Goals Per MIN
Month Goals Per Min
Apr 0.000
Nov 0.009
Mar 0.006
Oct 0.018
Dec 0.016
Feb 0.022
Jan 0.024
2 years to the Cup
Great Work Caniac233
Thanks very much for pulling all that data together. I wonder if Whitney felt in his heart of hearts that he would not be returning and that influenced his declining play after the trade deadline. Maybe he had some nagging injuries; but I thought Whitney seemed out of sync after the trade deadline. He was a great player for the Hurricanes; and I think Phoenix will really like having him on their team.
Still Assessing Numbers
Here’s what I found thus far:
First Thirty Games: Whitney had 10 goals and 12 assists.
Last Thirty Games: Whitney had 5 goals and 13 assists.
Given the fact the Hurricanes had a fourteen game losing streak and Whitney was still scoring, the drop off of goal-scoring at the end of the season is really unlike Whitney.
I want to check TOI for both periods and then calculate PPM.
Whitney Numbers:
FIRST THIRTY GAMES
10 goals 12 assists 22 points total time on ice 536.19
Goals TOI .0186
Assists TOI .0223
Scoring TOI .0410
(with goals, assists, total divided by 536.19)
LAST THIRTY GAMES
Goals 5
Assists 13
Total scoring: 18
Goals TOI .009
Assists TOI .0235
Total Scoring TOI .0326
(with goals, assists, total divided by 551.76)
15.569 more minutes in last thirty games
It is also to be noted that in March and April Whitney had 2 goals, and 6 assists for a total of 8 points. Total time on ice for March and April was 505.29
(All with the caveat that there is always the chance of operator error with the calculator).
Easiest thing to look at is pre- and post-AS break.
There’s not an easy way to get TOI stats, but before the break, he scored 48 points in 59 games .81 PPG and on pace for 65 points over the 80 games he eventually played. After, he only managed 10 points in 21 games, or .48 PPG.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 29, 2010 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Just read an interesting (&lengthy) review of Zdeno Chara’s 09-10 season here. (Hockey Independent)
The most memorable (and relevant to this post) quote, describing the 09 playoffs was:
Chara was unable to contain ‘Canes offensive-juggernaut Eric Staal
I’m trying to imagine any Canes-centric writer using that term. Perhaps Canescup has a new tagline.
But also you might be interested to read the story (or skim) as it pertains to Aaron Ward, Dennis Seidenberg, and the questions of leadership in the room when times get tough.
Twitter @HMof2
So much to comment on...
First, that is the most interesting article I have read in 6 months. Nice job Bob.
I too was a bit surprised about Jussi. I love his game but this is just amazing to see. Clearly he is a first line guy. I appreciate him more than ever.
Cole is no surprise to me. The guy is a very high end player. He just broke his neck…what else is there to say? If he can manage to stay healthy, he will produce. I would like to see him in there for two games then out. We need him if we can get to the playoffs.
On Ray…. Nice player but the numbers do not lie. Same skill set with more speed will generate better results….. Skinner or Boychuk will fill that role nicely. Letting him go was a tough shrewd move but it was the correct move. We do not need another Rod situation on this team.
Stalsy is the best player, the captain, the franchise. He put up those numbers hurt. Not minor stuff either. The only knock is he could be stronger in the circle. Not every person is good at that. Put all the criticism to bed it is not warranted.
This team will take some time to gel but when they do, there going to be very tough to play.
by KenRab on Jul 23, 2010 8:04 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Hey Bob
1. this fan appreicates very much what you,Cory & HM2 do here.
2. This article had information that even many “pro sites” & etc, would miss.
3. many of us fans will udoubtly look at this with a bit of irony as and while each of us has a favorite player or 2 ( i has 3 myself hehehe) that we do look at and over at times more from the heart instead of the brains when it comes to the “stats” ! Gee aint it great to be a human being ( except some from Buffalo :-} ) .
4. last but NOT least..Thank You,Thank You, Thank You !
PS you don’t get paid to do this do you ?/
And if it Aint Hockey,It Aint Nothin !!
That Checkers 3rd Sweater ROCKS !!!
Cole and Sammy, both in the top six of gpm
and neither one had a ton of ice time.
Also, Sammy had Brindy on his shift much of the time. That likely explains his relatively low points per minute.
Staal and EVPPM
Am I the only one who is amazingly impressed by this stat? Not only did Staal lead the category, but the next closest player was more than 10% behind him. That’s exactly what you ask of a first line center. I also think it points to the need to get someone who can consistently play with Staal.
Awesome stuff here. Really makes me want to develop some money ball strategies for the entire league.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
I would suggest that Whitney's added time at ES wasn't a bad coaching decision.
He’s not a PK player, so there’s extra time you can use him while fresh. Of course he’s going to get more time in ES and PP situations.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 29, 2010 11:19 PM EDT reply actions
Something to say? Choose one of these options to log in.
On Facebook? Use Connect to join SB Nation. Share insights with fans and friends.- » Create a new SB Nation account
- » Already registered with SB Nation? Log in!
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Canes Country
Related FanShots on Canes Country
![Have you seen the "Google search make your own 30-second video" [FIXED the link, sorry] at Youtube? I made my take on the Canes season this morning. Check it out and if you make one you like, post it over here. Lot of fun.](http://cdn2.sbnation.com/fan_shot_images/111208/2_small.jpg)
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Latest Puck Daddy - NHL from Yahoo! Sports
- In which former NHL coach Ken Hitchcock foils a shoplifter
- Montreal's Price talks new 2-year contract, expectations post-Halak
- Donald Fehr aware of Kovalchuk drama, mum on everything else
- Puck Headlines: Savard's agent rants on Bettman; Halak in Montreal
- Boudreau, Crawford placed on the coaching hot seat
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
