Babchuk: still learning, or fatally flawed?
by curiouscanesfan on Jul 26, 2010 7:13 PM EDT
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PrintBabchuk had spectacular moments in his last season with the Canes. His scoring ability is undeniable: 16 G, 19 A in 08-09. He scored in the clutch: 4 GW goals. In the KHL this year, Babchuk kept scoring. He made the All-Star team and had a goal and an assist in the All-Star game.
With all the talk of Babchuk as a defensive liability, he had the second highest +/- on the team in 08-09 at +13 (behind Staal's +15 and ahead of Pitkanen's +11). But that's just because he scores so much, right? Well, as it turns out, probably not. I'll get to that in a minute.
The playoffs in 08-09 seemed to be Babchuk's undoing. He scored only one assist and the +/- sank to -5. But on a closer look, Babchuk wasn't the only Canes' player who struggled. It's easy to forget that Brand'Amour, Cole and Siedenberg were also -5, Corvo was -7, and Ray Whitney -9. Gleason was -2, and Ruutu, Jokinen and Staal -3. That's an awful lot of players on the minus side and it looks as though Babchuk was around the mean for players on the minus side. He wasn't necessarily the oversized anchor that dragged the team under. Was he seen as such a disaster because his -5 was an 18 pt swing from +13? But then Staal's -3 was also an 18-pt swing in the wrong direction.
The collective numbers suggest the opposition figured out how to deal with the Canes--not that Babchuk's collapse wrecked the Canes' playoff chances.
Babchuk gets knocked for having no idea where his booming shot will end up. Oddly, in 08-09, when we mostly formed that opinion, Babchuk was third on the team in shooting percentage among regulars (12.6%), trailing only Cullen (15.8) and Ruutu (13.7). Among defensemen, Corvo hit 6.6% of his shots and Pitkanen 4.8%. If I hadn't read so many times that Babchuk has no idea where his shot might end up, I'd swear the data says that Babchuk should shoot much more, and Corvo and Pitkanen less.
Is the data some sort of weird statistical illusion? Or could Babchuk be better than everybody thinks?
Looking back, I think Babchuk's shot is so powerful that we tend to remember every miss about as well as every goal. When most people miss, it's not worth remembering. When Babchuk misses, somebody hits the ice or the puck hits the boards like an RPG. We think Babchuk's shot is wild because it's hard. His shot seems to be hard and accurate.
And when he's contributing on offense and caught out of defensive position, he's awfully conspicuous at 6'5", trying to get those long legs going in the opposite direction. He's also conspicuous trying to defend against a 2 on 1 break when he's up against speed. He seems indecisive, perhaps because he seems to think his reach is so great that his stick can take one player out and his body the other. As a result, he doesn't succeed in stopping either player.
I have to say when I look at the 08-09 stats, there were not four other defensemen who should have kept Babchuk out of the top four. Corvo was -1 in the 08-09 season. He was -6 with the Canes last year and -4 with the Caps. Just about everybody considers him an excellent offensive defenseman and a competent NHL defender. (That's my opinion.) We tend to consider Babchuk a weak NHL defender with a powerful but inaccurate shot and little else to offer. (That was my opinion until I went back to figure out just how much of a liability Babchuk was in 08-09 and will be this year.)
Whatever adjectives we use to describe them, it's hard to make an objective case that Babchuk is less valuable than Corvo, or that Babchuk's stats are deceiving because his scoring masks a world of defensive lapses. In 08-09, Corvo scored 38 points and was -1. Babchuk scored 35 points and was +13. It can't be that Babchuk's offense masks disastrous defensive play because he didn't have as much offense as Corvo but was 14 pts better on +/-.
Babchuk is not going to make the NHL All-star team. He's never going to be a shut-down defender. His long, thin frame will always get pushed around. He doesn't add the missing grit and hitting. But the Canes got him this year at a bargain price, and I'd be surprised if by season's end there are four other Canes' defensemen who have contributed more to team success.
The most reasonable assessment at this stage is that Babchuk is a competent NHL defender and a dynamic offensive player. When he fails as a defender, you can't miss it. When he's caught out of position, it's as though the Eiffel Tower is trying to get back. When his shot misses, the miss makes a dent in your ear drum and burns a hole in your retina. Could it be that Babchuk's reputation suffers because his shortcomings are even more conspicuous than the goals he scores?
In the 08-09 playoffs, had other teams found a fatal weakness in Babchuk's play, or are his flaws correctable? Even if not correctable, are his flaws things that the Canes can and should compensate for?
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My concern with Babchuk is that once the Canes got to the playoffs in 08-09, other teams learned that getting in his grill would negate his shot and lead to a turnover. He WAS a healthy scratch druing the playoffs. Whether a year in the KHL has remedied that or whether other teams have forgotten that point remains to be seen. I look forward to seeing him on the power play, however.
Nice post again :)
Agree to an extent
I essentially agree with your assessment. What I thought I saw in the playoffs was that other teams discovered that it took Babchuk a lot of time to get his boomer off and thus they crowded him so he did not have enough time to shoot.
Of course, if this is the case, you could say the opposition treated him as a dangerous opponent and overplayed him leaving it up to someone else to beat them.
Overplaying Babchuk
It was really just one skill set that Babchuk needed to master and the coaches didn’t have time in the middle of playoff to work on it. Overplaying Babchuk did rush his decision-making, but as you point out, it leaves more gaps to exploit. It’s a learned skill and some players, such as McBain, seem to have a natural gift for feeling the openings and seeing the ice. For other players, it takes settling their mind and realizing they really have more time than they might think to read the open spots. If the coaches were as immediately dismissive of talented players as some Hurricanes fans because the players had one specific area of weakness, the Hurricanes would be a truly awful team because nobody would want to play for them. I view Babchuk and players like him as coaching opportunities. Elsker is correct, Babchuk needs time with Rowe to get better at the area the defense exploited. For all we know, Babchuk spent his time in the KHL working on that area of his game.
Do you recall why Seidenberg and Corvo struggled?
Did Babchuk get banished because he didn’t adjust to pressure on the point and they did, or were their defensive issues different from his in the 08-09 playoffs?
by curiouscanesfan on Jul 27, 2010 8:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Seidenberg and Corvo
I do recall Seidenberg’s issues. Seidenberg to me was a person with uniquely bad timing. By that I mean, he would have mental lapses at the worst possible times. I still see in my mind, Malkin skating laterally and Seidenberg giving up space for no apparent reason only to have Malkin backhand glove side high a shot over Cam Ward, with Seidenberg providing a screen for Malkin. Babchuk was not adjusting to pressure on the point, and he had a couple of other pure skating errors – one where he lost his balance trying to cut off a pass and took down Cam Ward. Seidenberg’s issues were more a lack of consistency and a flaw for dramatic, random bone-headed plays. Seidenberg was more a fine defensive player who misfired when you needed him the most. Babchuk had one or two physical areas where he needed off-season work on the ice, in the weight room, and probably in the video screening room with his coaches.
Corvo I didn’t have on my list of “what was that all about?” plays. My reaction to Corvo was that he did as well as anybody could expect; but is limited by being 6’ and 200 lbs. He is a beast for his size; but sometimes, the lack of weight and explosive strength means he gets worn down; whereas Gleason at 6’2" and say 220 lbs is more unmoveable. Corvo has had a reputation for making some mind-numbing choices, but to me it was a situation where he had a plan in mind and tried to stretch his abilities and it didnt’ work out. It was more of a high risk/high reward choice rather than Gleason who takes the low risk/medium reward choice.
Disagree about your assessment of Seidenburg and the Malkin goal you’re referring to was Ward’s fault, he dropped his shoulders and gave Malkin the top of the net. I think Seidenburg’s a very good defensemen, he’s a little undersized at 6’1 210, he’s not the best skater, but he makes the most of his abilities. The thing I like most about him is his willingness to do whatever it takes – he blocks a ton of shots and takes a lot more big hits clearing pucks & making good 1st passes than most defensemen, certainly more than Babchuk. What I really noticed about Babchuk in the playoffs is how bad he was with the puck when the speed of the game changed.
Wish my memory was half as functional as yours and Abramsdoug’s, Go_Shelf.
Analysis can help, but there’s no substitute for remembering what really happened.
by curiouscanesfan on Jul 27, 2010 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn’t praise Ward’s handling of the play. I disagree with you, Go_Shelf if you conclude Seidenberg did anything other than mishandle that play. I’ve seen that play a number of times and each time I was shocked at how badly Seidenberg handled the skating. It is not to say that Cam Ward should have been stunned that Malkin took the backhand shot; but he never should have been able to have that space to shoot and Seidenberg should not have been screening Ward in the first place.
We’ve both seen him make that save numerous times and it made sense that he was having back spasms because he was leaning forward versus being square. I would say it’s more Malkin’s ability than Seid’s handling it badly, Seid’s is average skater at best and Malkin’s one of the best in world, especially at creating space. It’s going to be interesting to see how our dmen stack up against opponents this year, I have a strong feeling teams will really test McBain early in the season, especially on the road when they can dictate matchups. The first road trip of the season will be pivotal, there’s not an easy game on there.
Malkin
Malkin, I think, is one of the top three players in the NHL; and absolutely I can’t think of a defenseman he hasn’t made to look foolish at one time or another. I didn’t think it was Malkin being amazing with his move on that play, but then again I concede it’s really easy for me to say that from the stands and not on the ice trying to keep up with one of the world’s best players. All that being said, at the time and now I still felt Seidenberg blew it on that play; but I readily admit your points are valid about Malkin’s ability.
i feel for
a “flawed” player he has had his “magic” moments to where is liabilites were not so evident…but that’s just me…good night & Be Safe everyone
And if it Aint Hockey,It Aint Nothin !!
That Checkers 3rd Sweater ROCKS !!!
One other point you don’t look at when comparing:what role did they play. Corvo was matched with Gleason as our top defensive pairing. Babchuk was part of our third pair most of the year. Huge difference in the caliber of the opposition faced. Babchuk’s defensive failings were revealed against lesser lines(usually).
by ncyankee on Jul 26, 2010 8:16 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Doesn’t that argument work both ways? On a lower pairing, Babchuk played against inferior offensive players. But he also played with an inferior defensive partner. Shouldn’t that hurt his +/- about as much as the difference between the offensive capabilities he faced helped his +/-?
by curiouscanesfan on Jul 27, 2010 8:11 AM EDT up reply actions
But a guy with a booming slap shot who's never covered tightly can be set up by almost anybody.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 27, 2010 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
This.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 27, 2010 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Babchuk and myth versus reality
I very much appreciate your post for trying to sort through the myth of Babchuk’s lack of defensive skill and trying to provide a dose of reality. Like all young defensemen, Babchuk had his share of miscues. Some of the miscues wound up being irrelevant because the opposing team failed to score and at other times his miscues wound up costing a goal. If that were the test to determine defensive ineptitude, the Hurricanes would have to have played without any defensemen on the ice. Every NHL defensemen, other than the exceptional elite who are generational players, makes their share of mistakes.
I also saw the playoffs and read about Babchuk’s issues in the playoffs. Teams did pressure Babchuk; and he didn’t respond well at all to the pressure. Even at the time it was obvious Babchuk would be fine after getting more coaching on that aspect of his game. On the other hand, before Babchuk went on his scoring tear, it was clear to me that he needed to be playing a much more substantial role in the Hurricanes offense. I thought his shot was a key to keeping the defense truly honest. A 100 mph puck zipping past a defender’s head is absolutely a wake up call. Only a few fools tried to block his shots and they didn’t try twice.
Once Babchuk was moved slightly from the point so he had a clear lane to shoot, he became far more lethal. Offensively, Babchuk had some critical goals for the Hurricanes.
Looking ahead to 2010-2011, Babchuk will be a key in getting the Hurricanes to the playoffs. I am convinced in Babchuk were on the 2009-2010 Hurricanes, the additional offensive firepower (and hopefully the absence of Aaron Ward) would have been enough to have the Hurricanes reach the playoffs. The downside, of course, is that the amazing 2010 draft and trades would not have occurred. As a fan, I would happily take the total frustration of 2009-2010, to have Skinner, Nash, Sanguinetti, Faulk, Alt, Levi, Shugg, Stahl, and Anderssen. I also very much like the fact Corvo re-signed and Babchuk is returning.
I am hopeful that Babchuk’s defensive and offensive skills will be improved from his year with the KHL; but I for one would gladly take Babchuk back as if he were coming back directly after the 2008-2009 season. I look forward to seeing opponents diving for cover when the Babchuk cannon fires on the net. It’s the kind of havoc around the goalie and the net that the Hurricanes desperately needed at times in 2009-2010.
by abramsdoug on Jul 26, 2010 8:21 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Not a big fan of Babs myself. Too wishy washy for me. Probably still wouldn’t like him if he scored 70 goals and finished at +100. But I didn’t like TO when he joined the Eagles and still don’t to this day, and he helped the team get to the Super Bowl. If Babs can contribute to the team for a couple years and show a little humility, he may move up a level or two in my book, but evidence points to the opposite. I’ll believe it when I see it.
Satan is just a coping mechanism for monotheists.
Okay, you convinced me. We need to get rid of Corvo. :-D
Very nice grounding in the reality of the stats and an enjoyable read.
Nonetheless, we all know what we saw in the playoffs, which was that highly skilled defenders and systems found his Achilles heel.
But, that was then and this is now. He’s described by the coaches as being an eager learner.
I stand by what I said the day we heard he would return.
This is how Tom Rowe will earn his bonus this season.
Here we are now...entertain us.
I certainly agree that highly skilled defenders and systems found Babchuk’s Achilles’ heel. But they also found the Achilles’ heels of about half the Canes’ team and made half of the Canes’ defensemen look horrible.
To me, that suggests that either the Canes made it to a point in the playoffs where they were outclassed by the talent on the other team or outcoached by the other team’s coach.
I’d agree with AD that Babchuk didn’t respond well to pressure. When he had the puck at the point, he looked like a deer in the headlights.
What I don’t recall was how the Canes as a team responded to the other team’s clear strategy to pressure Babchuk when he got the puck. Did the Canes provide passing lanes and Babchuk failed to see them? Were the Canes falling into a trap by passing to Babchuk when the other team was set up to pressure Babchuk? In other words, what’s unclear to me in retrospect is whether Babchuk looked awful purely because of his individual shortcomings, or whether the coaches and team were slow to adjust and, as designated shooter, he was the obvious guy to trap and the guy who ended up symbolizing a huge team failure that he lacked the talent to overcome.
There are defensemen who could have handled the pressure so it’s at least partly on Babchuk. What’s most striking is that other Canes’ defensemen who played the point on power plays look as bad or worse statistically—Seidenberg at -5 like Babchuk, Corvo at -7. How much was Babchuk, and how much was the way the Canes were handling the power play?
Corvo and Seidenberg are pretty skilled with the puck. Why did they look as bad statistically as Babchuk? My suspicion from the numbers for the three defensemen is that there was a team failure at least as big as Babchuk’s individual problem.
However, I don’t honestly recall how Seidenberg and Corvo ended up -5 and -7, while, like everybody else, I vividly recall seeing Babchuk struggle at the point.
by curiouscanesfan on Jul 27, 2010 8:32 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m pretty much of an opinion that we were beaten more by a system than individual players, which is why I added that to “talented players” above.
And yes, it wasn’t just limited to him, although the point of failure on the power play was occurring on his stick too often to ignore it, with the only fix on the fly being to remove him from the pressure point.
Why was this occurring? Well, for one thing, we are not a very good passing team on the power play, for whatever mysterious reason.
Passes are telegraphed, executed slowly, rarely stick-to-stick, and the puck seemingly often has to be settled by the recipient before anything can be done with it at all. And, yes, sometimes I don’t think we work hard enough without the puck in being available as an outlet for those being pressured.
Practice, practice, practice for one thing. Also, we’re slowly getting new players that may be more skilled, individually and collectively, in getting this done.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Post of the Week
Dead on right. Too many passes made after staring at the player to receive the pass, taking an ad: “here comes the pass” and then waiting for the gap to close before passing; often included in the package was a bouncing puck or a pass either too soft or with too much pace.
For kicks, check out the Boychuk/Sutter/Bowman power play against Tampa in which Bowman scored his first NHL goal. It was a much better example of how to work a power play. The kids skated hard, Sutter battled behind the net got the puck to Boychuk, who shot around the net and shot on goal and kept whacking, the puck bounces out a few feet and Bowman lifts the puck past the goalie for his first goal. Speed, intensity, quickness, eye hand coordination, and Bowman’s special scoring instincts. At that point in the last nine games the Hurricanes were 2 for 31 on the power play – sealing their doom for the season. Add the young kids to the power play and special things happened.
It’s also why Pierre McGuire made his hilarious comment about the coaches behind the Carolina bench “grinning like butcher’s dogs” when McBain made that incredible thread-the-needle pass to Staal for a power play goal against Montreal.
More of that. Less of the other.
Here we are now...entertain us.
McBain and Staal
A couple games before that McBain on even strength made the same pass to Staal; and Staal was so surprised that McBain could thread the needle on the pass that Staal missed the shot. Later Francis was shown talking to Staal on the bench; and reading lips Francis was smiling and said something to the effect that “you have to be ready with McBain, he’ll get you the puck.” Staal was smiling, too, and shaking his head a bit. I think Jim Rutherford has made commented in interviews that Francis has been a strong proponent of McBain being ready to play in the NHL for some time before McBain was moved up.
You do know that PP time doesn't affect +/-, right?
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 27, 2010 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Not entirely true, in that shorthanded goals count as a minus against those on the ice, so turnovers can hurt.
But your point about power play goals not being counted as a plus is certainly valid.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Yeah, but they're rare and fluky enough that it very rarely even comes into play.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 28, 2010 1:58 AM EDT up reply actions
If this was a serious Cup year...
I’d say Babchuck’s a waste of a contract. That said, during a rebuilding year (or 2 or 3) I see no problem bringing him back and correcting the 1-2 flaws in his game. We have a little more wiggle room to see if he sinks or swims just like the rest of the new players.
I think we’re going to fix him up and sell him.
But, who knows? He could turn out to be a keeper.
Problem is, he’s UFA next summer, so there’s potentially lots of competition if we want him.
Therefore, my guess is that he’ll be traded for value somewhere around the deadline, particularly if Rowe has managed to quiet doubts about defensive liability concerns…which I predict he will.
Here we are now...entertain us.
I wouldn’t be surprised at all, Elsker, if Babchuk is traded BEFORE the deadline. For me, he is the piece that doesn’t fit in the Canes defense for 10-11. We have puck movers (Pits, Corvo), shutdown D (Gleason, Carson, Harrison – don’t laugh, that’s his role), and a talented youngster that has shown he can play D and contribute offensively (McBain- I love Maurice’s quote that his shot gets to the net). Babchuk’s D is suspect. His shot on the point is big, but there’s proof it can be negated. In today’s NHL, teams need D-men that are responsible in their own end and can make a pass to start a rush. Babchuk hasn’t proven he can do either.
I am hopeful that his game is better — he’s 2 years older. If he can be a responsible D-man with a cannon on the point then he has a place on my Canes roster. I have been pessimistic about his addition to the team; from this moment forward I will embrace optimism and wait to see his performance.
by Gillimus on Jul 27, 2010 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
speaking of shutdown Dmen, wonder how long before we see Dumoulin? He’s young, won’t turn 19 till September. I wonder if we’ll see him next year or 2012-13.
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Jul 27, 2010 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Great question. I hope Max the scout will give us a clue about that.
by curiouscanesfan on Jul 27, 2010 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions
He’s at BC, but had a phenomenal freshman year as one of the youngest freshmen in the country and youngest d-men in his draft year.
BC won the national championship, and Dumoulin made the Frozen Four all tournament team over Wisconsin d-men drafted in the first round.
After next year at BC, Dumoulin will still be young but will have deep experience for a guy entering his jr year. He’ll be plenty big enough, and might be ready for the NHL sooner than the average 20-yr-old.
by curiouscanesfan on Jul 28, 2010 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Brian Dumoulin
I happened to have been browsing through some material related to Brian Dumoulin over the weekend, so have some reading material to validate curiouscanesfan’s assessment of where he is at age 20.
Here’s a NESN article from April that discusses his last season at Boston College, including his rare-for-college +36 plus/minus.
Good insight within that article, including praise from his goalie about his easy outlet pass (man, could we ever use that!) and how good he is in the locker room.
And here is a nice Portland Press Herald article from June 2009 that contains a nice endorsement from his coach about his level of maturity.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Great stuff. Thanks for tracking it down.
by curiouscanesfan on Jul 29, 2010 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Fun with birthdays, Dumoulin-style
Drafted a year earlier, Dumoulin is 13 days older than Biega, 42 days older than Alt, and six months older than Faulk. An accident of the cut-off date means Dumoulin gets a year’s college experience sooner. Presumably that makes it easier for Dumoulin to make it in the NHL at age 20 than for the other guys. From the Canes’ perspective, they might get Dumoulin sooner but will have to wait longer for Faulk and the others to be ready.
On a second look, Biega has already been playing at Harvard, so he and Dumoulin should be on the same track. Alt and Faulk are the ones lagging by a year.
Brian Dumoulin 6’ 3" 205…………………….Sep 6, 1991
Danny Biega 6’ 0" 200…………………………Sep 29, 1991
Mark Alt 6’ 3" 200 Oct 18, 1991……………Oct 18, 1991
Tyler Stahl 6’ 1" 196……………………………..Jan 29, 1992
Austin Levi 6’ 3" 192…………………………….Feb 16, 1992
Justin Faulk 6’ 0" 205…………………………..Mar 20, 1992
For reference, I decided to look at Dumoulin’s age vs. prominent d-men drafted in his draft year, 2009: Hedman, Kulikov, Rundlbad, Ellis and Cowen, and Ekman-Larsson. Dumoulin is basically a year younger than everybody on that list but Ekman-Larsson, who is close to Dumoulin’s age.
You’d have to assume there’s a big drop-off in talent between those guys and Dumoulin. But with respect to most of them, he has about a year to catch up before the comparison is fair as far as age and physical maturity go.
Time spent at different levels of competition is another factor in development. That’s different (and almost certainly lower) for Dumoulin from those first rounders in his year. They’re not only older, but they’ve played in Canadian major junior hockey or Swedish and Russian leagues.
I was trying to get a sense of what to expect from Dumoulin and when, but now I’m less certain than ever. Maybe he’s way behind because of playing small-time hockey in Maine instead of for the Windsor Spitfires, but it didn’t look that way when he played in the Frozen Four and made the all-tournament team. You begin to get a sense of why scouts and teams struggle to project when prospects will be ready for the NHL.
With Canes’ college players, Dalpe came out after his sophomore year and McBain and Nash after their junior years. It looks as though that schedule worked out great for McBain, but he still needed most of a year in the AHL. I guess the most plausible forecast is for Dumoulin to come out after his junior year and go to Charlotte. If Dalpe thrives this year, maybe the Canes will think Dumoulin can make the jump after sophomore year too—but probably the jump to Charlotte.
Patience is a virtue as long you’re not the ones who have to wait. In this case, we are the ones waiting and it’s a damn nuisance.
Sure wish Dumoulin was playing in Traverse City. That would gives us a much better idea of how ready he is or isn’t. Meanwhile, we have to look to the prospects in their mid-Twenties.
by curiouscanesfan on Jul 29, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
For convenience for those that are curious, here are the 2009 (Dumoulin’s), 2008, and 2007 (McBain’s) drafts.
McBain’s path to the NHL might indeed be the model that Dumoulin (and the org) will follow, sticking with the college program until after his junior season (‘11-’12). Looking down those entry draft lists, it’s hard to find a drafted defenseman that’s arriving any sooner, other than the elite talent at the top of the lists.
However, it would seem reasonable that if Dumoulin were to leave Boston College after his sophomore season ended this season and log a season in the AHL for ‘11-’12, then it might be possible to see him in ‘12-’13.
He’s certainly big enough in frame and could be beefed up over the next couple of years. Really comes down to refining the skill package.
And for a defensive defenseman, he’s seemingly not that far away in the skills department.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Couple details to consider for Dumoulin.
1 – From what I’ve seen on NCAA eleigibility for Traverse City, he could play if he paid his own way and it didn’t require he miss classes. Classes start the week before so it’s unlikely he can do it.
2 – I think it’s understood by ccf and Elsker, but because one can’t play AHL hockey until your 20th birthday and very few players make the leap from NCAA to NHL, it is pretty risky for a player to sign a contract prior to their 20th, otherwise they have no options if they make the NHL club. Therefore, that has been part of the decision process.
So whereas Dalpe came over in the spring of his Sophomore year, after the Ohio State season was done, we might see Dumoulin no earlier than Sept 2011. I agree that, like you are pointing out, while he’s playing on an NCAA championship team and getting a ton of ice time, it might be better all around to let him “finish cooking” there without moving him to Charlotte at a young age. I’m happy either way, though curious to see what happens next summer on this.
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Jul 29, 2010 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I had eyed his September 6th birthday and thought it possible for him to sign a pro entry-level contract after turning 20 next year (2011) and still be able to make all the pre-season activities for that season.
The advantage of moving onward from Boston College after two seasons, good as they might be, would be to begin to adapt to the pro schedule with all of its many more games. Plus, it allows him to begin working directly under the org’s trainers and defensive coaching staff.
Probably see some injury duty call-up to the NHL during that initial ‘11-’12 pro season, under this scenario. And then make the leap to the NHL for good sometime during the ‘12-’13 season at the age of 22.
Corvo is UFA in Summer 2012, so there’s your slot open in training camp, waiting to be claimed.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Corvo, Dumoulin, and the Hurricanes
My impression is that Corvo fits well with the Canes and the Canes Organization respects and likes him. I think it is an intelligent move for the Canes and Corvo for Corvo to stay with the Hurricanes as long as he is well-treated and as long as his health holds up. I remember vividly being told by many different people that McBain was the real, real deal during his freshman year at College. Jim Rutherford in particular stated in various public formats and forums during McBain’s college tenure that he was very impressive. I am now hearing the same things about Dumoulin.
Well, just remember that they didn’t really try to sign him for this season until nearly the last moment and, even then, it was for a sweet “hometown” discount price. I’m not convinced that he’s part of our long-term plans.
So, I’m viewing him as a band-aid until we grow our own top-4 replacement.
Pitkanen’s the wild card as to whether he’s signed to be top-4 for us long-term or gone at the deadline.
If Pitkanen’s gone, there may be room for both Corvo and Dumoulin to be in the mix.
I am assuming that McBain is top-4 by then, if not long before.
Maybe we even have the luxury of starting Dumoulin on the third pair, if Corvo is still around, but that’s one hazy crystal ball into which we’re gazing.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Or a sweet "Nobody else even wanted me" price...
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 29, 2010 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions
We've heard a lot of the same stuff about Lawson, too.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 29, 2010 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting point on Corvo. I’m thinking Corvo wants to retire here….but that’s 2 years away.
He’s also at WJC development camp next week in Lake Placid (With Faulk and Alt). If he makes the team, we’ll get to see him w/others his age (the best from around the world) in Buffalo. That should be cool.
BTW – I’ll put this in a C&C but those games at camp next week will be webcast – for a charge. There are 2 scrimmages between the US and FInland (Kivisto and Rissanen, maybe). Wed (aug 4) and Saturday at 4pm.
It’s possible all 5 of our prospects will be cut prior to these games, but that seems unlikely.
Here’s a blog on the US WJC camp that’s chock full of info.
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Jul 29, 2010 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 28, 2010 1:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Unlike Corvo, or any other top-four defender you care to list...
Babchuk was put on the ice where we needed to score, and was kept away from the other teams’ top units when they were trying to do the same. Not hard to protect a third-pairing defenseman’s +/- if he’s going to score.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
Babchuk's shooting 12.6% shooting in 08-09 and McBain's 10.3% last year
are both pretty impressive. In 08-09, Babchuk was second among NHL d-men in shooting behind Mike Green’s 12.8. Last year, Leopold, Visnovsky and Doughty led NHL d-men at 11.6, 11.5, and 11.3. Babchuk would have led the league. McBain would have been sixth in the league if he sustained that percentage over the season. Corvo is in the top 30 both years.
That kind of shooting ability has got to take pressure off the other Canes’ on the power play.
by curiouscanesfan on Jul 27, 2010 7:12 PM EDT reply actions
Very SSS.
Hard to call those numbers definitive or repeatable at this point.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 28, 2010 1:59 AM EDT up reply actions
whats missing in this conversation is the 1.4 million Babchuck will be paid. Whether he is still learning or fatally flawed, I am thrilled that we get to find out for only 1.4 million dollars. I am totally aware of his prior “transgressions” (and I dont want to get into those), but you really can find guys with his potential – and at his reletively young age – for 1.4 million.
Pits/McBain on the 1st PP unit with Corvo/Babs on the second – pretty good, IMO
Babchuk is Low Risk and High Reward
Exactly the point. Babchuk is a former first round draft choice and is a 6’5" 220 defenseman who scored 16 goals in the past for Carolina; and has a 100 mph shot and who is being paid $1.4 million. He is the definition of low risk and high reward.
+1
yeh, i think many folks are letting their “dislike” of babs color their evaluation of his talent. he’s not my favorite player either, but i believe he’s a lot better than some seem to think. as you say he’s cheap, and it’s hard to find guys who can shoot the puck 100mph!
I’m not denying that Babs has skill, and his off-ice stuff doesn’t bother me. I honestly think most of the tension between him and JR is that the two are very much alike. My two issues with Babchuk are:
1) His shot is wild and not often on target. His shooting percentage is high, but that doesn’t take in to account the shots that were fired wide that aren’t counted as shots on goal. It would be interesting to see of all his shots toward the net what percent were on goal and how many resulted in goals.
2) He was scratched in the playoffs for Frank Kaberle. Furthermore he was scratched in a game 7. It’s hard to like a guy when his own coaches think someone else who won’t even be in the league the following season gives the team a better chance to win.
This isn’t to say that he can’t or hasn’t improved. However, it does put the onus on the player to prove he’s improved. That said, I do agree with Doug’s low risk/high reward statement. With Corvo, McBain, Sanguinetti and others in the system it’s not much of a risk at all.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Hmm...
Are you sure off-targets shots don’t count? I was under the impression that SoG only mattered for SV%.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 29, 2010 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I completely understand JR’s re-acquisition of this asset, although technically I guess we never lost it.
So, more like facilitated Babchuk’s re-entry to the NHL, since we held his RFA rights.
Low cost, high reward, indeed. We’re certainly not paying much more than a “bust” price, and he’s clearly not a “bust”.
At a minimum, Tom Rowe makes an honest defender out of him, we showcase him from a safe position within the lineup (third pairing, once McBain shows he can handle top 4 duties?), particularly on the power play.
He helps us. He gets other GM’s drooling as their own defenders go down to injury or disappoint.
We either trade him for value or attempt to sign him…but the latter is a pretty risky course of action, since he’s UFA.
I think it’s a good pick-up. Whether or not he fits into long-term plans, or even the totality of the season, remains to be seen.
Here we are now...entertain us.
A Question
Jim Rutherford said at one point after signing Babchuk that now Babchuk had the right of arbitration, which is what he wanted all along. It was not said vindictively; but it sounded as if Babchuk for some reason was treated as an RFA with arbitration rights. I didn’t understand that comment because I thought Babchuk became a UFA at the end of this season. Is he perhaps a UFA VI?
I’m not sure what JR meant by that remark, if he indeed said that. Maybe he meant that effectively Babchuk had that result, since next season he will now be able to theoretically collect “market value”, as an arbitrator would have also attempted to determine.
By my read he’s a straight UFA this summer, because he will be 27 years old in May of 2011, which should grant him UFA rights, regardless of number of NHL games played.
Both CapGeek and nhlnumbers have him listed as “UFA” for next season.
Here we are now...entertain us.
This is how I understand things as well. Is it perhaps JR was confusing the current CBA with the old one and misspoke when he said Babchuk would have arbitration rites. Maybe someone should tweet Mike Sundheim or JohnnyF for clarification.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Your take sounds right in that Babchuk has to play one year at this salary and then effectively can test the market. I think Jim Rutherford will depend on Rowe to work with Babchuk and enhance Babchuk’s performance and value. Babchuk could well be traded at the trade deadline rather than risking Babchuk going elsewhere. I suppose it will depend on what the market value for Babchuk is at that point.
At a minimum?
I would say that making him an “honest defenseman” is hardly a sure thing.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 29, 2010 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions
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