The Bright Side: Reckless Optimism Advisory
by curiouscanesfan on Jul 9, 2010 8:21 PM EDT
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PrintIt’s easy to see nothing but doom and gloom when the Canes say minimizing salary is a top priority, but this is the season for optimism. The Canes unexpectedly signed Corvo, and the pictures of the kids at the RecZone and comments from observers look great (thanks LTD, abramsdoug et al!).
But frankly, I hadn’t really felt much optimism until I happened to notice Drayson Bowman’s stats from his WHL days. The stats for some of this year’s draftees were fresh in my mind.
I was hoping the Canes would get Nino Neiderreiter. He seemed to fill the need for size and scoring ability. He had 36-24-60 in the WHL regular season for Portland and 8-8-16 in 13 playoff games. When the Canes didn’t get Nino or Connolly and had no chance at Hall or Seguin, I saw no hope for getting a proven goal scorer or the kind of size the Canes seem to need on the wing.
Then I stumbled onto Bowman’s old WHL stats. Bowman’s last two years in the WHL, he had 42-40-80 and 47-36-83. In the playoffs, he had 11-9-20 in 21 games and 8-5-13 in 12 games. And don't forget: Bowman leaves Neiderreiter in the dust when it comes to the ease of spelling and typing their names. That’s a draft consideration bloggers should not overlook.
So I did a couple of additional comparisons, frankly looking for facts to cheer me up. In another WHL comparison, Zach Boychuk also scored at a faster clip than Johansen or Neiderreiter. Johansen had a very impressive 44 assists—but Boychuk had 60 assists at Lethbridge in 2006-7 and 91 points in 69 games. In an OHL comparison, this seems like a good time for a reminder that Jeff Skinner scored more goals this year than Taylor Hall or Tyler Seguin.
Despite all this, I was still feeling a bit down about this year’s draft because NHL Central Scouting had a bunch of our draftees ranked lower than the spots where we took them. Skinner and Levi were the most glaring examples. That doom-and-gloom syndrome is hard to shake when there’s so much uncertainty about who will even make the team.
I decided to seek an alternative opinion on the Canes’ draftees. I wondered whether Red Line Report has done an analysis of the 2010 draft that I could see free of charge, and how they might judge the Canes’ choices. There’s no analysis of the actual draft, but they have made their 2010 mock draft public. They had Skinner going 9th to Minnesota instead of 7th to the Canes (the Canes got Johansen in the RLR mock). That makes the Canes’ choice of Skinner look better. Things really start to look bright when you see that RLR had Justin Faulk going 21st to the Penguins and Mark Alt 24th to the Canucks. I take that as evidence that the Canes got THREE first-rounders in this year’s draft. With the two first-rounders acquired by trade, Riley Nash and Bobby Sanguinetti, this draft added FIVE first-rounders to the Canes’ system in a couple of days. I find it hard to believe that many NHL teams have done that.
While we’re taking a long drag on the hookah of irrational exuberance, let’s remember that freshman Brian Dumoulin made the NCAA Frozen Four All-Tournament team this year, and Wisconsin’s Ryan McDonough, playing against him, didn’t. That’s the Ryan McDonough taken 12th overall by Montreal in the 2007 draft and just signed by the Rangers. The Canes got Dumoulin in the second round. We’re talking about the 6’3” Brian Dumoulin who had the biggest wingspan (80 inches) at the 2009 NHL Combine (tying a 6’6.5” defenseman from Kingston). That wingspan is greater than Derek Forbort’s (78.5) and Erik Gudbranson’s and Jarred Tinordi’s (78). It would have trailed only Dylan McIlrath’s 83-inch wingspan at the 2010 combine. Dumoulin also had the lowest body fat, 6%, at the 2009 combine. Tyler Seguin was best this year at 7%, and Taylor Hall was an almost pudgy 7.45% body fat. I think it’s time to promote Dumoulin to first-round status based on both his outstanding performance a big step up in competition from when the Canes drafted him, and measurables that make his performance seem like anything but a fluke.
Of course, Danny Biega killed everybody in lots of tests at this year’s combine and Mark Alt did extremely well, too. Alt’s wingspan was only ¼ inch less than Gudbranson’s and Tinordi’s. While we’re on the subject of prospects with impressive measurables, Sanguinetti was the fastest skater in the AHL last year.
I’ll be the first to acknowledge that measurables and college and junior performance don’t guarantee success in the NHL, and that none of the Canes’ prospects is a game changer in the way that Patrick Kane is. For God's sake, Kane had 62 goals and 145 points in 58 games for the London Knights in his OHL season--I looked it up because I hoped to find a Canes prospect had outperformed Kane. Not even close. Kane's OHL season makes Hall and Seguin look pedestrian, let alone Boychuk and Bowman.
Even discounting the level of competition and the disconnect between fitness measurables and hockey skills, I think the facts shift the balance at this point from doom-and-gloom to rational optimism about the Canes. They won't win the Cup this year and probably won't even make the playoffs, but the evidence is mounting for a bright, bright future. Guys like Bowman, Boychuk, Samson, Tlusty, and even Dalpe have already gotten their feet wet, Sutter and McBain have performed well in the NHL, and the Canes’ leading veterans are 27 or younger. It’s a question of when the Canes rise, not if.
The Canes' low self-imposed salary cap shouldn't spoil our outlook on the season. Not any more.
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Two things....
…..make this one of my favorite posts ever.
1) the warning that there would be reckless optimism
2) And this….. Bowman leaves Neiderreiter in the dust when it comes to the ease of spelling and typing their names
I don’t think this will change my outlook on the State of the Canes for this season, but very well played my friend, very well played.
Satan is just a coping mechanism for monotheists.
You are now clearly “one of us”. The beauty is in the details, isn’t it? (both these up-and-comers and the way you write about it). Not sure where you are , but if you can make it to the RecZone tomorrow I guaranty you’ll have an extra spring in your step for a week. (or maybe till Training Camp starts in 70 days.)
Good stuff.
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Jul 9, 2010 10:08 PM EDT reply actions
Thanks for the kind words, hockeymomof2
I wish I could come to the RecZone today. I live close enough to drive down but have to do some other things this afternoon.
And yes, the beauty IS in the details. In a half-hour, you can go from thinking Dumoulin is just another long shot to seeing that he’s a big-time prospect who has performed at a very high level at a very young age against older players who are first rounders for the Redwings and Rangers. You go back and watch Dumoulin and try to figure out how he manages to get to the puck first so often. He doesn’t seem to be skating that fast. Maybe it’s the remarkable reach. Maybe it’s an ability to think ahead.
I’m no expert, but I’m hoping Dumoulin is that big, shutdown defensive defenseman needed to complement the Canes’ impressive collection of speedy puck movers with booming shots. He’s a big kid and any weight he puts on is going to be rock solid based on the low percentage body fat he had at the 2009 combine. I don’t know how physically aggressive he’s going to be, but he won’t be soft in the literal sense.
Dumoulin might look perfect next to McBain in a couple of years. I wouldn’t care whether BC or Wisconsin comes out on top in that pairing. A tie would be just fine.
Once you get this optimism thing going, it’s kind of hard to tamp down.
by curiouscanesfan on Jul 10, 2010 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Dumoulin is just one of many in the system we can look forward to. And though that may not get us in the finals in 2011, it’s still fun hockey to watch and follow, and just means it’s a more of a 2-part novel than a one season story.
And if I can point out the obvious, there is no better place to keep up with all these background stories than at Canes Country. I think that’s one of the main reasons we’re here.
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Jul 10, 2010 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Not to pick nits...
But isn’t that what drug users say when they slip into their fixes to avoid their real troubles?
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 9, 2010 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Then don’t.
Pick nits that is.
And please don’t imply that I’m either using drugs or avoiding troubles. I don’t have troubles when it comes to supporting the team that plays hockey in my back yard.
Thanks.
Phoblographer and Finn Aficionado
SISU
by Jamie Kellner on Jul 9, 2010 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm certainly not.
Somebody’s a little over-defensive, huh? Just a joke, kiddo.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 10, 2010 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
I get that was what you were trying to do, kiddo.
And feel free to challenge my opinion all you want, I’d just prefer you not try to project character traits onto me in an effort to rationalize why my opinion might not jive with yours.
I have enough character flaws (and real troubles) as it is without folks making up new ones on my behalf.
Phoblographer and Finn Aficionado
SISU
by Jamie Kellner on Jul 10, 2010 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Again, I'm not projecting anything.
I neither know you nor have ever claimed to.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 10, 2010 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Bet you never anticipated that response – wow
by PittsburghCaniac on Jul 12, 2010 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions
As a drug user.....
…..let me just say that I have never said those words when slipping into my fix to avoid my real troubles. I usually just say " Damn, If only I didn’t live in Eastern NC, then I wouldn’t have to self medicate."
Satan is just a coping mechanism for monotheists.
by wilmnoca on Jul 10, 2010 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well-played.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 10, 2010 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Cane's Kane
For God’s sake, Kane had 62 goals and 145 points in 58 games for the London Knights in his OHL season—I looked it up because I hoped to find a Canes prospect had outperformed Kane.
He’s not a prospect. In fact, he’s suddenly finding himself joining the ranks of the “vets”.
But the Canes do have someone that came close to matching Patrick Kane’s 62-83-145 58-game OHL year.
Chad LaRose had a 61-56-117 season over 67 OHL games played for the Plymouth Whalers in ‘02-’03.
And, it is my personal opinion that the Madness that is Chadness has not yet peaked.
Chad LaRose
It would help the Hurricanes tremendously if LaRose continues to develop. Imagine how much a 25 goal season by LaRose would boost the team. He has such a great attitude on and off the ice; and he learned at Brind’Amour’s knee about fitness. I really hope you are right. It’s inarguable that LaRose has been a scorer at all levels; and every NHL player can expect at some point to have an off year. If one throw’s out last year and goes back to his 19 goal season in 2008-2009, 2010-2011 could well be his year.
Then again...
We should probably note that that was Sharp’s first OHL season at 18, whereas LaRose’s was an overage season at 20, his third year in the league. You don’t ever get that kind of physical and advantage in the NHL.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 10, 2010 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Your post on LaRose is more cheering than any fact I found, Elsker
LaRose is quick and sometimes makes goalies look foolish in the NHL, but I never thought to look up his junior stats. They are very, very impressive so maybe he has more to contribute than I dreamed. Maybe he should be on a scoring line. And we already know he can play effectively in the NHL.
I can’t help sounding a pessimistic note, though. LaRose doesn’t have that magical ability that Kane does to hold onto the puck forever and cruise around in control no matter what the defense is trying to do. Samsonov may be the Cane who hangs onto the puck most effectively, but somehow that ability doesn’t turn into points as often as you’d hope.
by curiouscanesfan on Jul 10, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I first saw this
about 15-20 mins. after this person posted this..and so I went and did the homework and the author is spot on target…all the “I’s” are dotted & all of the “t’s” crossed…great peice of work…gets a 2 thumbs up from me…as and while i am “mildly” optimistic…but if the likes of Bowman & Boychuk along with a few others (samson,osala& tlusty) all step it up…what concerns we fans have NOW about the self imposed cap…will be a mere passing thought we all had so foollishly…BUT…as HM2 reminds us 70 more days until “training camp” starts and the fur will be sure to fly…In the mean time…grab that Hockey book y’all been meaning to start or finnish…and relax…it’s all good…nash or no nash…it’s all good…
And if it Aint Hockey,It Aint Nothin !!
That Checkers 3rd Sweater ROCKS !!!
Didn’t know all of those stat points, makes me even more optimistic… and I was never one to be dooming and glooming.. lots of hope from me.
-Cory- LETS GO CANES.
Our closest prospect to Kane is Skinner who scored 50 goals with 40 assists in 64 games. If Skinner develops and is on a line with Staal and Jokinen, I think he could be a 30 goal scorer a few years from now.
I still have guarded optimism concerning this year. I think we will start out much better than last year. If we are at .500 through the first half of the season, this team could gel in the second half of the season to make the playoffs.
While we undoubtedly will have injuries, I don’t expect a broken leg and TWO freakish leg slash injuries to key personnel plus multiple nagging injuries to our best forward. So with those players on the ice more often and in better health coupled with a strong push from all of our young players, I expect to be competitive against any team in the league.
That doesn’t mean I don’t expect to see some lopsided scores against us. We will make mistakes. But with our oldest player being 33, our core players in their mid 20s, and all the shuttling with our young guys between Raleigh and Charlotte, we will surprise many pundits.
by Chuck Burns on Jul 10, 2010 12:56 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Optimism Update
Today’s great posts about Jared Staal made me realize I should have noted the way the Canes turned a 5th rounder into an extra second rounder this year.
If two of our second rounders were rated as first rounders – Faulk and Alt – and two of our second rounders were swapped for actual first rounders – Nash and Sanguinetti – we shouldn’t forget that Staal is an actual second rounder, and one who seems like he deserved to be drafted that high now that he’s looked impressive in the flesh at the RecZone.
Rutherford has always seemed to prefer older second-tier vets to untried young talent, but now that he’s going for youth, he seems to do it with ruthless efficiency. There’s a lot to be said for trading some of the chances to draft inexperienced second rounders for more experienced first rounders, and for turning a 5th rounder into a second rounder like Jordan Staal.
Between the players the Canes drafted in the second round, the players they got in exchange for second rounders, and the second rounder they got for a fifth rounder, you’d have to say the second round of the 2010 draft added more to the Canes’ talent pool than the entirety of most previous drafts.
On paper, that is.
by curiouscanesfan on Jul 10, 2010 1:14 PM EDT reply actions
Referring to Jared as Staal or JStaal is going to get confusing. I say we just refer to him as Opie and play off the stereotype the rest of the hockey world has of us. :)
Triple Gold Juice - It's Potent and Guaranteed to Help You Score!
by PackPride17 on Jul 10, 2010 1:43 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
A year ago we were debating the questionable “authenticity” of Kaiton’s pronunciations of Frank Kaberle and Tomas Kaberle, which were not the same. I suggested it had to do with birth order. From there I extrapolated that the Staal brothers in order were:
E Staal
M Stale
Jordan Stahlo
Jared Stallini
Maybe Opie is better. Sure fits.
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Jul 10, 2010 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I think if you say J. Staal to anyone in the league except a Canes fan they will immediately think Jordan Staal. Jared is barely even a Staal. Opie fits…
Or SnaggleTooth… at least until Santa brings him a new front tooth for Christmas.
One thing we got to see about Jared at the RecZone today… he’s about as good on a shootout as his eldest brother. Poor guy – both his attempts were really, really off the mark.
"The increase in pain is way beyond what you would expect a person to play with," said coach Paul Maurice. "Unfortunately it’s even beyond what Tim Gleason can play with, because he can play with just about anything."
But that wraparound…it’s every bit as good as his brother’s. :)
"What Carolina really has going for them is Brandon Sutter. When that kid first showed up, he looked like a skinny little thing that wouldn’t last two weeks. But he’s turned into a real star."
good point… and that laying on the ice after he falls down
It’s like they grew up playing together :)
"The increase in pain is way beyond what you would expect a person to play with," said coach Paul Maurice. "Unfortunately it’s even beyond what Tim Gleason can play with, because he can play with just about anything."
elskling and I have used S1, S2, S3, and S4 for years to refer to the brothers when we’re talking to one another.
But then there’s lots of hockey talked around this household and we have little nicknames for nearly everyone.
S1-4?
Isn’t that an Eklund rumor rating? ;)
"Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?" -- Oddball, from Kelly's Heroes
[My Hockey Photoshops] [My Music] [Beat a Dead Horse]
by Raccoon Fink on Jul 13, 2010 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
We could just call him Jared, although then people might confuse him with that Subway dude.
Phoblographer and Finn Aficionado
SISU
by Jamie Kellner on Jul 10, 2010 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Another angle I hadn’t thought of. Um – maybe he can be Staal34, rather than Staal12. Or……Something tells me will come up with something as we get to know him better. That’s a very good skill on this blog.
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Jul 10, 2010 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Then again...
There’s a reason these teams are all-too-willing to give up on former high draft picks. Flaws that weren’t so apparent to them on draft day have become evident, so they’re willing to deal them at a loss. That’s not to suggest they can’t turn it around and become valuable members of the organization, but it’s not like we’re trading LaRose for Malkin or anything.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 10, 2010 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions
One Team's Trash is Another's Team's Treasure
The Canes organization is quite good at evaluating players with whom other teams have somewhat fallen out of love: Ruutu, Jokinen, Pitkanen, Gleason, Corvo, and now Nash and Sanguinetti. It has more to do with coaching philosophy and whether teams style and persona fit with particular players. Nash was a matter more of Nash really not feeling comfortable with Edmonton. Sanguinetti got into Tort’s doghouse during training camp; and Torts is known to be an unforgiving coach.
tampa bay is real good at turning treasurer into trash, at least under old management.
Jussi was a darn good player in Dallas. I’ll never forget that day I turned the TV on and Forslund says “Jokinen.” And I say, “what?” And I’m running through it in my brain, no way “Ollie.” Then he says it again. Then it hits me, “Jussi, yes, yes, yes.”
That's all well and good...
But there are plenty of guys we’ve signed who’ve pretty much flopped. Just look at last year’s FA class for plenty of examples.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 15, 2010 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
While we’re getting all gushy, let’s not forget about the good reports on Justin Shugg as an amazing talent to somehow drop into the Hurricanes’ lap in the 4th round.
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Jul 10, 2010 1:32 PM EDT reply actions
It is amazing that Shugg was around at round 4
Shugg’s pick points out the importance of having plenty of later round draft picks. It’s hard to imagine why Shugg was not selected sooner, but that is good fortune for the Hurricanes.
Nice post. I’m already optimistic about the future. Especially this year. As Chuck mentioned above, if we can avoid the injury bug this year there is no reason to believe the Canes won’t make some noise. I can’t imagine someone having a +/- as abysmal as Brindy’s. Plus the these younger players should increase the overall team speed dramatically. The biggest hurdles I see are how quick the team can gel, and how the early season travel affects the team. If the Canes can walk into Raleigh for their home opener at .500 watch out. That should give them some serious confidence going forth. The future is certainly bright, and I believe it’s a lot closer than some think.
Watchability Factor High
Regardless of how the win/loss record plays out or where we are in the standings this coming season, no question the “watchability factor” is going to be high for this team.
Certainly it has the potential to be a V-16 offensive scoring machine with all 12 forwards and at least 4 of the defensemen dangerous to the opposition.
But, its defensive prowess is a bit untested and all that offensive nature has the potential to be caught out of position and facing odd-man rushes in a split second reversal of momentum.
Pretty exciting stuff for a fan with the likelihood of both more goals for and goals against than your normal Canes season. Both lead to an active viewing experience.
Certainly I’ve experienced far worse seasons as a fan. Travel back in time with me to the post-‘02 Cup run teams of ’02-’03 and ‘03-’04 when Mo’s “left wing lock” *cough*trap*cough* would meet Ottawa’s full-blown trap on a Wednesday evening in front of a sub-10K crowd.
While they’re mucking it back and forth through the neutral zone, I’ve seen grown men and women (and I’ve been one of them) actually doze off in their seats the action was so mind-numbingly dull. Honestly, some evenings the only thing we had going for us at all for entertainment was Arturs Irbe’s acrobatics and seeing what heart-stopping pass through the crease or up the middle Malik would make that night. :-D
And, when the injury bug bit, we were lucky to get minor league players that could hold it together for even a game at the NHL level. Heck, we had so few even AHL-worthy prospects that we were sharing a minor league team with another NHL team since we couldn’t possibly fully stock one ourselves.
Contrast this to the pending season, where we have discussed that with 9 forwards with one-way contracts thati we only have 3 skating slots open for 7 legitimate two-way contract contenders: Boychuk, Bowman, Samson, Dalpe, Dwyer, Osala, and Matsumoto.
Now, add Riley and perhaps Skinner, at least during pre-season, to that mix and we potentially have nine forwards competing for only three skating slots when the one-ways are injury-free or not healthy scratched.
That, folks, is a literal lava lamp of talent that will be bubbling up for their moment in the sun, then returned to Charlotte, where Jeff Daniels will inherit a constant stream of pissed-off, highly motivated forwards being returned to “work on their game”.
Man, you will need, and want a program, even as a STH, just to see who the org has up tonight.
Now that folks, is entertainment. And, after all, it’s an entertainment product at the end of the day.
And I’m looking forward to being there come September to watch it all unfold right below my feet.
by Elsker on Jul 11, 2010 1:43 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Good point… It will be exciting regardless of how good or bad they do. Although don’t underestimate Mo’s ability to create lemons out of lemonade. We will probably see all our exciting young guns playing 5 minutes a night on the 4th line!
I agree...
…..as I often do with Elsker. I look at this season as a parent would go to see their kids pee wee team. They’re probably not going to be that good, but it’s nice to watch the development as the season progresses. It will be almost like a fresh start. Alot of the old guard is out and the youth movement is in full effect so we will literally be getting a rare chance to see the future ( albeit in an underdeveloped form ). I am really excited for the season, if not excited about the prospects of what our win/loss ration will be.
Satan is just a coping mechanism for monotheists.
Should start a thread on our predictions for next year… Mine would be:
1) Dalpe breaks out big time and scores 20 goals and 40-50 points, establishing himself in either the top-6 or as the 3rd line Center
2) Sanguinetti has a great year, establishing himself as a steal similar to the Jussi trade. I will guess he gets at least 30 points
3) Babchuk wins over his nay-sayers, scoring 15-20 goals and leading the team in plus/minus while maintaining decent defensive play
4) Bowman surprises many by being called up and sticking on the team, scoring 10-15 goals and looking very prosperous for the future.
5) Mike Murphy has a knock-out year in Charlotte… Even if we don’t see Playoffs here we can drive to see them in Charlotte.
5) Juice scores 30 goals again!
predictions for next year
JussiJuice, great idea about the predictions fanpost. I respectfully volunteer you to crease it because it is your idea and it’s quite a good idea, I think. It would be fun to see all the different predictions and then to go back later to see how close we were or were not.
edited version
JussiJuice, great idea about the predictions fanpost. I respectfully volunteer you to create it because it is your idea and it’s quite a good idea, I think. It would be fun to see all the different predictions and then to go back later to see how close we were or were not.
#1:
20-30-50 would be a hell of a line for a third-line rookie. He’d certainly put himself in the mix for RoY with that.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 15, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
That, folks, is a literal lava lamp of talent that will be bubbling up for their moment in the sun, then returned to Charlotte, where Jeff Daniels will inherit a constant stream of pissed-off, highly motivated forwards being returned to "work on their game". bq.
Elsker, that really is the best encapsulation of this coming season I’ve read. I, too, am looking forward to seeing a young, fast Hurricanes team, growing pains and all.
Exactly. I expect that talent will be playing pissed off at the first puck drop of training camp. These young players are absolutely gonna be highly motivated knowing the trip to Charlotte is a short one, and a Rat Checker will be waiting to take a spot in Raleigh. Good times definitely lie ahead. Hell they’ve already helped managed to quell the free agent frenzy frustration. I have no reason to doubt this will be a very entertaining year team this year. They may not make the playoffs, but they should be a lot of fun to watch.
by CoastalCane on Jul 12, 2010 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Hurricanes and the Playoffs
I have a feeling the Hurricanes will in fact make the playoffs in 2010-2011. I won’t predict any further than that prediction. I can’t see Staal, Ruutu, Sutter, Jokinen, Gleason, Cam Ward, Pitkanen, and Corvo going through another season without a playoff; and the young prospects are not going to go down without a huge fight.
For me, there is one key factor. They need to stay healthy. If they avoid the injury plague that struck last year, I firmly believe they will make the playoffs.
As for the veterans, I think the memory of a 14 game losing streak, and the damage it caused, will be fresh in their minds. I don’t see that happening again.
"We sleep safely in our beds because rough men stand ready in the night to visit violence upon those who would do us harm." -George Orwell
As far as Juniors stats translating to the NHL, I only need one line to make my point
Chad LaRose, Plymouth Whalers, 2003
67 games, 61 goals, 56 assists, 117 Points total.
If he scores 117 points the rest of his career I’d be amazed.
In your mentioning of the prospects and their talent, if you were talking about “rational optimism” over the next 2-4 seasons I’d be inclined to agree, but I worry about you folks booking an easy ticket to the playoffs in 2011
That's a deceiving line.
LaRose was an overage player. Most of these guys are putting up these numbers at 18 and 19, not 21.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 15, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree the Canes won’t have an easy path to the playoffs, but I think there’s a chance. Meanwhile, we get to see who makes it at the NHL level and where the progress of the Canes’ young players leaves them for next year.
Your point about junior stats is backed up by some data included in a comment in the “Player Predictions for Next Year” discussion. Overage years, which is what I think you’re quoting for LaRose, really distort things. The figures you quote show LaRose scoring a goal a game. When LaRose was a bit younger, he scored 0.6 goals per game in junior hockey, which is still excellent. Eric Staal scored goals at the same rate as LaRose in junior (0.59).
When they moved to the AHL, both scored at about half that rate.
In his first full season with the Canes (2006-2007), LaRose scored 6 goals in 80 games, down again from his AHL numbers (except for a brief stint when LaRose was sent down to Albany and scored like mad). In his peak year, LaRose scored 19 goals in 81 games.
In his first year with the Canes, Staal scored 11 goals in 81 games. In his second, he scored 45 goals in 82 games.
This suggests Canes’ young players will produce very modestly this year because most have not had a full season in the NHL and most won’t get a full season this year.
Wouldn’t it be nice if we could tell which players will be less than half as productive in the NHL as in junior, and which will soon become just as productive, like Staal? Staal has more skill than LaRose, but the most obvious difference is size. That may be why the draft is biased toward bigger players. Few Canes’ prospects have the advantage of Staal’s size.
I guess part of the excitement of watching the Canes’ young players will be seeing how much their scoring shrinks from earlier levels, and whether anyone defies the odds and scores at a good clip in the NHL. How much NHL TOI the young Canes get will not only determine how much they can score, but how much they can adapt to the NHL.
I’d rather see the young Canes get as much TOI as possible, even if it reduces chances of making the playoffs this year. The Canes are not Cup contenders. They’ll be more competitive next year if they let the kids take over this year.
by curiouscanesfan on Jul 14, 2010 9:45 AM EDT reply actions
Logic says ur rite!!
It’s certainly reasonable to assume that the canes aren’t “Cup contenders”, but i’d say it’s a bit premature! The mix of vets and youth may or may not prove to mesh…chemistry is (to my mind) more important than pure skill!! The number of possible line combinations Adog has supplied us, show us how many options MO has to find an effective/ strong team! At the point we know whether we can make the playoffs, we may be able to discern what our chances look like. My opinion is that if you make the playoffs, ANYONE CAN WIN…!!
Playoffs versus Cup Contenders
I agree it is far too early to write off the 2010-2011 Hurricanes as a playoff team. As the 2005-2006 Canes team showed, once any team makes it into the playoffs, anything is possible. I continue to believe the Hurricanes in 2010-2011 will be highly talented and highly motivated.
forgot one thing...
I know most people here would probably agree, that the league has achieved a modicum of parity! i know when i go to the RBC (every game, with few exceptions) i never assume a win/ loss! when the canes play well – they usually win, and the reverse is equally true!! most other teams fall in that category. every team that has the kind of injuries we had last year, struggles to win games (no matter who they’re playing)!! that said… too much was made of veterans ie. a.ward, causing us to lose last year! YES he played really bad, and others didn’t play great, either, but w/o all the injuries ..1. they wouldn’t have been playing as many minutes 2. more minutes by “the injured players” played would have made a difference in more than a few games. net/ net -we would likely have made the playoffs… Barring a repeat of last years injuries (major) this year’s a tossup at worst!
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