Hockey's Future Summer 2010 Top 20 Prospects List Unveiled
My article listing Carolina's Top 20 prospects has been published over at Hockey's Future. Jamie McBain tops the list, followed by recent No. 7 overall pick Jeff Skinner and 2008 first-rounder Zach Boychuk.
almost 2 years ago
Cory Lavalette
59 comments
0 recs |
Email
PrintComments
Good list, I’d might flip McBain and Skinner though, McBain’s over 4 years older than Skinner and yet to establish himself as a solid NHL’er, I realize McBain should have a good year this year, but Skinner probably has more upside and if given the shot may have a better year than McBain.
Well, McBain’s established more than Skinner. I know everyone’s high on Skinner right now, but he was a surprise at No. 7, if we all remember.
by Cory Lavalette on Aug 11, 2010 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
None of those other four guys have had any kind of success in the NHL or locked down an NHL roster spot yet.
by Cory Lavalette on Aug 11, 2010 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
McBain, Skinner, Boychuk
I feel certain Boychuk would be quite pleased to be considered in the same discussions as McBain & Skinner as highly talented prospects. Skinner being taken at #7 and getting the praise he has received places him as a very high prospect. I don’t put much weight in exactly where numerically the top prospects are listed because there is no right or wrong answer. Any team should be thrilled to have McBain, Skinner, and Boychuk in their system. I was really impressed with how much depth there is in the system. The increase in talent over the past two years along is pretty amazing.
It comes down to a call involving a prospect that at least has 14 NHL games under his belt (and looked pretty good while doing so) versus a prospect that’s still in juniors.
Maybe in the next year or so, that reversal in position will indeed occur, but this seems right for now.
Here we are now...entertain us.
by Elsker on Aug 11, 2010 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
As you must know – I loved getting this, Cory. (So others know, I think I’ve emailed you to ask is it ready yet? several times since around July 3rd). It is so much more relevant to the franchise than anytime I can think of, yes?
And the fact that it’s longer than a typical hockeymom post tells me there is a lot of really great depth in the system. (well, maybe not but you get my drift) I was struck how I kept scrolling down and down and down – and at #20, you’re still at an AHL All-star, Jerome Samson. Another AHL standout, Jon Matsumoto didn’t even make the cut. Nor Justin Shugg. Nor Kyle Lawson; all of whom would likely show up in most top-20’s.
Do you have a best guess on when Dumoulin will sign and what kinds of indicators we should look for to determine how he would decide?
Last – I just tweeted this, but an LA blog interviewed two 1st round/ 2010 forwards who were at the USA U-20 camp last week, Charlie Coyle and Nick Bjugstad. When asked who he thought was the top D-man at camp, Coyle answered Dumoulin as his top choice, with very specific observations. How cool is that? ( see Question 10 in the link. you get the feeling the blog was hoping the answer was Derek Forbort…)
Are you familiar enough with the other 29 franchises to say how the Hurricanes prospects compare to others in the NHL? Is there a ranking based on the top 20’s ratings or somesuch?
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Aug 11, 2010 5:33 PM EDT reply actions
Samson...
I was also surprised at #20 … seems low to me? Cory, why doesn’t he get more love?
also, why would someone who can score like he did last year, be looked at as a 4th liner?
Seems like he should 1st get a shot on a scoring line b4 forced into a limited checking role?!!
Unfortunately for Samson he is stuck behind way too many seemingly prospects to get a legit chance in a top-6 spot. Who knows, he could very well be a Matt Moulson type guy who could surprise everyone and put up 30 goals in the top-6, but I doubt he will get that chance.
He looked very good as a 4th line checker in his time for the Canes though… Just because a guy is 4th line doesn’t mean he isn’t good, Samsons extreme hard-working approach, willingness to get dirty, and occasional scoring touch is perfect for a 4th line and Penalty Killing role player. Leave the scoring to guys like Skinner, Dalpe, Boychuk, etc.
I hear ya, but...
My question really is what do you think makes other prospects “better”, when he outscored most of them last year? I’m not arguing… i just want to understand what you think their criteria/ skillset evaluation, that determines who’s better etc.
The view from Samson's seat
It’s just going to be a matter of patience. Samson’s only 23 and already exceeding expectations. His time will come.
Our right side is pretty clogged right now, but will open up in a year or two. At that point, Samson’s only 25 and would be an excellent fourth-line right wing, capable of spot injury duty or even field promotion to the top nine, if he deserves the shot.
Ahead of him right now in the right-wing slots, in some order or another, are Ruutu, LaRose, Cole, and Kostopoulos, with Bowman also wanting to make top-9. So I say no chance this season, unless (until?) injuries strike.
But, Cole’s contract expires this season and so does LaRose’s. LaRose may be renewed, but I’m doubtful on Cole.
Kostopoulos has two more years left and probably has the same role that Samson would fill well covered, although Samson becomes a nice spare tire if something goes awry there.
So, spot duty perhaps this season, maybe more later if a couple of trades occurred. More spot duty and prime injury backup on the right side the season thereafter. And a real shot at the fourth line once the Kostopoulos era ends.
But, right now, there’s just too much skill and/or experience ahead of him.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Consider that Skinner and/or will likely end up in a top-6 wing spot and it becomes even more clogged.
I think the Canes desperately NEED guys like Samson who can be cheap, young, high energy guys for the Canes long term. Too long have we paid our 3rd and 4th lines far too much money… The 4th line isn’t for overpaid and underperforming veterans as we have come to know so well. Playing as a bottom-6 energy line guy is a vital role that I think Samson fills perfectly. If we could keep him in that role for a long time for under $1-1.5 million, we would be in great shape.
I absolutely agree with you that we have to get back to the “I’m just incredibly lucky to even be here” energy guys that traditionally form your most effective (and affordable) fourth lines. Samson’s a good candidate for that.
You also mention Dalpe, who may indeed need to convert to a winger if Nash is the third-line center of our future. He shoots right and I have no idea which wing he prefers. But, it might make sense to move him to his off-wing on the left side, just to move that incredible shot of his a bit closer to the slot.
So, maybe Dalpe’s not part of that right-wing logjam. Just the left-wing logjam. :-D
Here we are now...entertain us.
Dalpe – Staal – Skinner
Jokinen – Sutter – Ruutu
Boychuk – Nash – Tlusty
I think I may be able to live with that top-9 in 2011-2012. Dalpe’s right shot would compliment Skinner’s left shot pretty well (good point you brought up). Hopefully Jussi doesn’t become a casualty of the top-6 logjam.
Brings up a good question also… We had a pretty bad potential top-9 logjam already before we picked up Skinner. There is just no way now that we can accomodate everyone. In this scenario Bowman/Osala lose out, someone has to go at some point.
Early recognition of the inevitable.
This is why a few of us have been gently saying such a thing just has to happen, at some point.
But, it’s not a bad thing whatsoever. We keep the best of the best, and use the rest to upgrade the D…or invest in “futures” (draft picks/prospects).
Cue abramsdoug. :-D
Here we are now...entertain us.
Skinner and the impact of talent
There are clearly too many talented players for the spots available. The only question is when and who. I would be surprised if there is no more consensus than disagreement.
I can’t envision Samsonov being re-signed, for example. I can’t envision the Hurricanes trading Staal, Ruutu, Sutter, or Jokinen.
Based on the big love shown to Boychuk by the organization and his performances when given time on the ice with other talented forwards, I personally think he is a lock to stay a Hurricane player. Skinner, too, is a lock to stick with the organization and not be traded. Based on the public statements, official statements, quasi-official statements, by the Hurricanes organization about Tlusty, Dalpe, Nash, Bowman, and Dwyer the organization seems very, very committed to those players.
Based on statements by there are only six, seven, or eight “untouchables” among the veterans, I think Jim Rutherford is prepared to trade Cole and Kostopoulos. With respect to LaRose, his total package includes a strong positive leadership presence and a strong loyalty to the organization. Then again, I felt Whitney felt loyalty to the organization; and it turns out any loyalty he had was not $500,000.00 or so deep. In fairness to LaRose and not to have that comment taken a way I didn’t intend, LaRose has been part of the extended Hurricanes family since he was a kid. The Caniacs love him. His teammates love him. He’s like a son to Jim Rutherford. It’s hard for me to envision that LaRose would be traded if there are any other viable options. I could theorize LaRose plays himself out of a job; but that is not like him at all. Still, it is conceivable that the talent pool has grown to the point that there is no viable option for keeping LaRose. It’s too soon to say. If the bond LaRose has with the organization and the fans were ignored and the question was a weighing solely of pure hockey skills (and I am not suggesting that is a brilliant idea), LaRose is at risk of being traded.
By 2011-2012, the picture of which players will be a part of the long-term core of Hurricanes will be much clearer. There are likely to be surprises; and a player like Osala or Jared Staal could work hard enough and improve enough that they earn their spot on the roster.
Sound reasoning, but...
I think you’ve made a case for moving Kostopoulos, LaRose, and Samsonov rather than for making Samson wait.
I like Kostopolous but he’s not part of the Canes’ future. LaRose has value, but I don’t think he can compete with the wave of talent that’s coming. I don’t think Cole can be traded and I don’t know about Samsonov, but the Canes should get what value they can while they can.
The alternative is benching the established players and further devaluing them, or playing them and delaying the development of the next Canes’ championship team.
by curiouscanesfan on Aug 12, 2010 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry, but right now, Kostopoulos > Samson, and for not that much more salary.
Not a bad thing to have a spare tire for that position. Jeff Daniels needs players, too.
Samson’s time will come. The others are not really the ones in his way.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Agree Kostopoulos is better than Samson at this point and comes at a bargain price. I guess I attach more weight to whether Samson would be better than Kostopoulos after playing a full season in the NHL. I think Samson would score more at that point and be just as physical. I don’t think he would be as good as Kostopoulos defensively. The crucial difference is that a year from now, Samson is an asset going forward and Kostopoulos is not part of the plan. Kostopoulos loses out based on age discrimination.
by curiouscanesfan on Aug 12, 2010 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m in agreement, but we have Kostopoulos in such a good contract ($0.95M/$1.1M) for the next two years, that I’m reluctant to trade him prematurely…unless, of course, for great return!
However, after those two years pass, slotting Samson into that fourth line at age 25 should provide not only a seamless fit for role, but some upside on scoring and top-nine injury replacement duty.
If Kostopoulos were to get hurt this season (played all 82 games for us last season), Samson would be my choice to fill in for him. But, they may be so desperate to get Bowman some ice time in the NHL that they would call him up, instead.
That would certainly fit Mo’s pattern of how to best bury use the rookies…put ’em on the fourth line, regardless of level of talent. :-D
Here we are now...entertain us.
Bowman and the Power Play
I would not be shocked at all to see Bowman put on the fourth line this year and to get some time on ice on the power play. I continue to believe the Hurricanes will transition to a team in which virtually all their forwards can play on any line. Bowman has the ability to play on the second, third, or fourth line; and could at times, depending on the situation, play on the first line. I think they will go for speed, skill, and character rather than trying to pigeon hole players. They will keep the best and most versatile players, and leave it up to Maurice and Francis to figure out which lines to put their forwards. From what I can tell, Francis is given wide berth when it comes to assessing the talent of players and determining when they are NHL ready.
Maybe I need to open up a separate Fanpost to discuss the role of a fourth line sometime, but it would be rare to see a power play component on a team’s fourth line.
After the power play units have had their shifts during a two (or more) minute period of time, it’s usually the fourth line (containing elements of the PK unit) that is deployed to let the elements of the top three lines that have been out there catch their breath and get their lactic acid under control.
More times than not, those powerplay units will have been unsuccessful (20 percent success rate is world class), so momentum swings to the other team after a successful kill.
That’s why it’s good to have “energy guys” on the fourth line that can cycle well together to pin the other team down in their zone, stifling the attack, seizing the momentum, and letting us slip elements of the first power play unit back out there on them after now resting through the second unit and the fourth lne’s shifts.
It’s not necessary that they be scorers. Just that they work and play well with others in order to maintain possession until the calvary arrives.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Which is why it is maddening to see Mo put scorers like Bowman on the fourth line.
I think he does it to simply limit their minutes when he doesn’t yet trust them on defense, which is bad for them and bad for the team. I’d much rather see scorers put on the third line, at a minimum, and splash/swim learn to play at the NHL level with double-digit minutes.
At least they’re probably not having to go up against the likes of Chris Pronger from that third line slot.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Samson really just emerged as an AHL scorer last year, by comparison Tlusty has a much better ppg average in the AHL. Boychuk and Bowman had decent seasons as 1st year Pros (much better than Samson’s first AHL season). In Dalpe’s short time he also looked to have much more long-term potential. Skinner and Nash are also likely slotted above him simply on projections alone.
Samson was a 3rd year veteran in the AHL last year, he was no spring chicken. That can have a big effect on point totals, also consider the mass of young talent around him that could have bolstered those numbers. He definitely has a scoring touch, but it seems to be less from pure skill and more from very hard work. That is an ideal playstyle for a 3rd-4th line energy guy. Samson could very well score in the NHL (again Matt Moulson is a great example), but with all the talent ahead of him I doubt he will get the chance.
Your point is well taken that Skinner will undoubtedly take one of those right wing slots opening up. But, perhaps this also highlights the reason we may be well served to let Jeff have a glory year in juniors before shoehorning him into our lineup.
We need to make some room for him. And Cole’s departure would do so for ‘11-’12. Who knows, maybe one of LaRose or Kostopoulos also has to go to make room for Bowman.
Still, in two years, there may be a position open on the fourth line for Samson that would be his to earn.
Here we are now...entertain us.
I’d love to see Samson on our 4th line from next season till the end of time. He played great as a bottom-6 guy in his short time with the Canes last year. He is cheap, high-energy, not afraid to get rough, goes into the corners and high-traffic areas, etc.
I assume Skinner has to be signed to play with us in preseason (or at least for the regular season try-out) right? It will come down to how he plays there… I’d hate to see him light up his try-out and then be sent back down. If he scores a ppg I think we need him here.
If that is the decision of the org: “No way we can send this kid down. He’s ready.”, then they’re going to have to make room for him.
The fans are not going to like what has to happen for him to play this next season, because one of Cole/LaRose/Kostopoulos has to go. And, from a role standpoint, it’s really Cole or LaRose.
I hate to even mention Ruutu at this point. His era will eventually end…but not now.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Ruutu has to stay. If he comes back from the shoulder injury, he’s just too valuable for the Canes’ to part with. He can play a lot of different roles and he’s one of the very few physical players the Canes’ have.
None of the prospects is a sure thing when it comes to providing a physical element.
by curiouscanesfan on Aug 12, 2010 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions
And Ruutu sells tickets. I don’t doubt that a bit. He’s PR gold. More than LaRose even.
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Aug 12, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Ruutu’s in his prime (27 years of age) and under contract for the next two seasons.
Add in the power forward role he plays on a team that’s looking for power forwards among its prospects, and he’s not going anywhere during that contract period, and perhaps beyond.
Was just looking down the road, where we have a cluster of forwards in their young twenties. Eventually, they too are in their prime, with prospects chasing them for slots.
At that point, who knows? The team is like a river…ever changing.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Somehow I didn’t see that I could reply to this message and went and needlessly created another reaction to your excellent list, Cory. I wondered where Tlusty would have fit in and went from there, found I couldn’t actually rank players 1-20, and divided players into tiers.
If it’s easy for a moderator to do, it might make sense to turn my new fan post into a comment here and delete the separate posting.
As HMo2 notes, the list of Canes’ prospects has gotten so deep that you have to do a double-take. Seeing Samson at 20 was the biggest surprise for me.
And HMo2, that’s a great find with Charlie Coyle’s comments about Dumoulin. There’s no reason to think Coyle is a Canes’ fan so his comments carry weight.
by curiouscanesfan on Aug 11, 2010 6:21 PM EDT reply actions
He said he’s never seen Dumoulin before – just based on his impressions from camp. They will be Beanpot rivals: Coyle starts at BU this fall. Of course he’s just 18, maybe he’s scared Dumoulin will take him out on the boards and trying to buy some room when they play this season. =D
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Aug 11, 2010 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions
If you feel like you want to put it over here – you can cut and paste yourself. But it’s lengthy enough it can stand alone. You can also delete your own post, though we generally discourage people from doing that. It’s all good. These front page “fanshots” (we’ve had two today) are a little different. Some don’t even realize how to click on the title to get to the story being linked. IMHO, it needs to be a little more intuitive.
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Aug 11, 2010 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions
So Forbort was drafted 15th overall and Hockey’s Future says he projects as a number 1 defenseman in the NHL.
Charlie Coyle was in camp for a week with Forbort and Dumoulin and a bunch of other high draftees and says Dumoulin is the defenseman he was most impressed with.
That implies that Dumoulin is a number 1 defenseman in the NHL. In the Hockey’s Future rating system, 8.0 is the appropriate score for a number 2 defenseman. So it looks as though the Canes may have an 8.5 on their hands.
Paging Cory Lavalette!
by curiouscanesfan on Aug 11, 2010 7:21 PM EDT reply actions
Good stuff over all, BUT....
Some of the peeps you listed if i was the writer of that article, just a wee bit hirer..who ? Bowman,Boychuck & Osala…but that’s just me…hehehe…it’s still 94 degrees here…good thing i has a “energy saver” switch on our AC unit…thanks again Cory !!
Be safe Y’all
And if it Aint Hockey,It Aint Nothin !!
That Checkers 3rd Sweater ROCKS !!!
Nice Job Cory!
Pretty deep list of prospects. Certainly feel better that in the case of injuries this year, there will be a lot support through the system.
Here is one that should have been there..
Skip Cunningham, the last original Whaler. End of Discussion.
Hockey's Future prospect ranking system
For those that may be unfamiliar with the system that Hockey’s Future uses to rank an org’s prospects, here’s the code.
May solve a few mysteries and show you why Cory had such a hard time slotting our unknowns into some kind of order.
Basically, the number projects the role to which they might aspire (second F line/second D pairing/back-up goaltender, etc.) and the letter grade gives the odds for making it there.
Here we are now...entertain us.
I think I understand what Hockey’s Future is trying to do, but it’s hard for me to think of a team’s talent pool that way.
I think teams bend heaven and earth to help their most talented prospects succeed, and that increases their opportunity and their likelihood of success. Since the top prospects get more attention and more opportunity, that tends to cancel out the letter grade, or to elevate it substantially.
Conversely, the players seen as having less potential often get less opportunity no matter how well they play, and that tends to exaggerate the effect of the letter grade. Samson has far outperformed expectations, and yet he’s a long shot to get minimal minutes on the 4th line.
In practice, the overall effect is that the number grade overwhelms everything else. Teams are looking for impact players, and they run everything in favor of the prospects who come into the system with the stamp of potential impact players. It’s definitely easier and probably more accurate to throw away the letter grades and just go with the numbers in ranking the players.
Cory, if this doesn’t put you in an awkward position with Hockey’s Future, do you have an opinion about that?
by curiouscanesfan on Aug 13, 2010 8:56 AM EDT reply actions
Well, it makes sense to go for more of a sure thing than a long shot, I’d say. I think the letter grades are important — it plays a big part in rankings of guys like McBain, Peters and Murphy, I think. A lot of times a C is a safe letter grade b/c it gives you a lot of leeway. As for someone like Samson, I don’t think anyone who scouts hockey would tell you he has more potential than Boychuk or Bowman regardless of production in the AHL. He does some things well, but he doesn’t have a “plus” skill that makes you think he can do the same thing at the next level. If you watch Boychuk, you can see how his speed could be a huge factor at the next level. Same for Bowman and his shot.
Even in his NHL audition, Samson wasn’t that impressive, IMO. The thing he did well? Cycle and control the puck. There’s value in that on any line, but he’s not yet a good enough passer to make him a huge threat in a top six role at the NHL. Now in a bottom six role, you love to have a guy like that that can go up against another team’s top two lines and control the puck in the offensive zone and essentially render a scoring line useless for a minute or so, even if it doesn’t result in a goal. But throw Boychuk or Bowman on a scoring line and you can see they will do things that make them stand out even against other great players. The key is them finding a consistency in doing so.
by Cory Lavalette on Aug 13, 2010 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions
You make a strong argument, Cory, and I can’t claim to be good at assessing which skills will and won’t translate from the AHL to the NHL. However, the counterargument on Samson would be that his “plus” skills ARE puck possession and shooting. He is very, very hard to knock off the puck. He is remarkably adept at getting to the net and putting the puck in the net, which involves shooting skill. I have not, as you say, seen anything from Samson that convinces me that an isolated skill such as shooting or skating will enable him to stand out against great NHL players. But I also haven’t seen anything that makes me think great NHL players can consistently knock him off the puck, stop him from shooting, or keep him off the scoresheet. Your point about passing is the one I find most convincing. I don’t recall seeing great passes from Samson despite all the puck possession. That may be telling.
I have seen things from Boychuk that I think will stand out against great players, including his deceptive, quick-release shot as well as his skating.
I have seen Bowman’s excellent shot and know about his impressive scoring in the WHL, but I have unfortunately not bee lucky enough to see anything that convinces me he can stand out against other great players. I hope he can. I’m sure I haven’t seen him as much as you have. On the few occasions when I’ve seen Bowman play, he has tended to disappear for long stretches.
Despite the shot, Bowman doesn’t seem to put pressure on the defense. He’s seldom fighting for the puck and then not effectively. I certainly didn’t see all his AHL games, but I thought he was disappointing in the Canes games. Other people did most of the work that set up his goals. Perhaps he was star-struck, but his effort level appeared to me to be nowhere close to Boychuk’s. I didn’t note a skill for puck possession or physical play. One of his goals was a point blank shot set up by hard work from Sutter and Boychuk with Boychuk getting the puck from the back of the net, bringing it to the goal, and whacking away at the corner of the goal. No defender picked up Bowman as he came in for a rebound. The other Bowman goal involved more of his own effort. He went to the net and the goalie stopped a couple of his shots. His goal came a bit later on a point-blank shot set up by hard work from Boychuk again getting the puck out from behind the net and Dwyer whacking away in the crease and becoming the focus of the goalie and the defense.
That’s a very small sample of Bowman’s play, representative of nothing, and not a fair basis for judging him as an NHL prospect. He did put the puck in the net after Boychuk and Dwyer failed to do so. All I’m saying is that I haven’t as yet personally seen the Bowman skills that will stand out against great NHL players. I hope I see them this year.
by curiouscanesfan on Aug 13, 2010 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
FWIW, this was Samson’s third AHL season. That doesn’t discount what he did, but he’s used to the rigors of the pro season and Boychuk and Bowman aren’t. Also, Samson’s shot does concern me some. You see an awful lot of big-time AHL scorers never replicate that in the NHL b/c they can’t beat NHL goalies. It’s amazing the difference btwn. an AHL goalie and an NHL goalie.
by Cory Lavalette on Aug 13, 2010 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Good observations on both players.
Now, applying HockeyFuture’s rankings of those two players, I see your observations dovetailing nicely with their assessments.
Samson: HF rating of 6C, which translates to third line potential, at best, with the possibility of dropping two rating points (AHL relief) as an outside downside. So, your observations about his puck-possession, sturdiness, and shotmaking skills are dovetailing nicely with a 6C player that might do spot duty on the third or even find a slot on a weak team, but surely could do fourth line duty.
Boychuk: HF rating of 7.5B, so hovering between that first and second line slot as upside potential, with the “B” indicating the unresolved barrier that needs to be overcome to achieve that level. Worst predicted backslide is one slot, to second or third line duties. This all dovetails nicely with your observation of the one sort of hole in Boychuk’s otherwise impressive performance to date.
Quantifying crystal-ball gazing with still young and developing prospects as to what will be the apogee of their careers is brave work. The two-variable approach taken by HF is pretty good “short speak”, if nothing else.
When someone says to me “He’s a 7.5B”, I at least have an immediate impression as to upside and the number of flaws that still need to be resolved.
Here we are now...entertain us.
You and Cory have convinced me that the HF approach to ratings is sound. I guess I’m just personally uncomfortable with countervailing scales. I’d rather things were simpler.
Reductio ad absurdum: 10.0 D. A generational talent with almost no chance of success. Perhaps that’s what you would have if a Gretzky-like talent had a severe substance abuse problem, but I’m still uncomfortable with the concept.
by curiouscanesfan on Aug 13, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah … I don’t think they’d ever give a guy a 10 if there were that many issues surrounding him that warranted a D.
by Cory Lavalette on Aug 13, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Boychuk's speed, skating, and intensity
Cory, I agree with you. As I watched Boychuk this year, his blazing speed and skating ability struck me as talents that were going to make him a very productive NHL player. Anybody who watched Boychuk also had to notice his intensity. It is no coincidence that when he was slotted with two other scoring forwards, he became far more of a threat. I happen to think the coaching staff must have studied how Dean Smith persuaded Michael Jordan to play within the system – whenever Jordan reached around 20 points, he was taken out of the game. Boychuk was brought along very conservatively; and Maurice spent a great deal of time working with Boychuk. I think the fact that Francis is given very substantial responsibility for the development of the young prospects will help them enormously. It should also calm the concerns of some Caniacs as to whether Maurice will be a good coach for the young forwards.
Cory can weigh in with his thoughts, especially since he probably has more insight into how the ranking system evolved.
But, to me, the letter grade is useful. The number sets the upper bound of what can be achieved. The letter ranks the chances of actually reaching that level.
Some players have all the tools and are sure things. Others may have high offensive skills, but are lacking in their defensive game. That’s perhaps coachable, but it lowers the odds of them hitting their high mark, because that aspect of their game must be improved for them to hit that high mark.
It is more of an indicator of likelihood of success than anything else. Yes, perhaps influenced by the org’s response via coaching. However remember these assessments occur annually, so their letter grade is not locked in stone and can reflect progress on correcting deficiencies.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Bowman in question form
Cory, you’ve got Boychuk rated 7.5 B and Bowman 7.5 C. Do you truly see them as having the same high-end potential? And how big a difference do you see from B to C? In positive terms, what probability would you give each of being successful first or second line players in the NHL? What is it about Bowman that gave him a C realistic probability rating instead of a B?
I’m groping for information about Bowman because I haven’t personally seen those flashes from him but I’ve definitely seen them from Boychuk. You say Bowman’s natural talent is obvious. What have I missed?
by curiouscanesfan on Aug 13, 2010 11:21 AM EDT reply actions
I think Bowman needs confidence to succeed. He really wanted to get to Carolina last year — based on talking to him — and the fact that he might spend another year in the A will either motivate or dishearten him. it could go either way. Boychuk, IMO, will produce b/c of his speed and skating. I think that gives him a slightly better shot. I think Boychuk has a better shot of being a fringe first line winger than Bowman, but Bowman — if he puts it all together — could be lethal.
by Cory Lavalette on Aug 13, 2010 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Then I wish Bowman all the confidence in the world. It would be better if he had boundless determination and there was no danger of his being disheartened, but if there is such a danger, the Canes will have to take it into account.
Based on what you said, I’d think Bowman is more likely to succeed if he gets a good, long, secure shot at proving himself in the NHL rather than feeling one slip-up will put him back in Charlotte. Success will breed confidence. Without steady playing time, odds are against early success.
With all the forward prospects competing for NHL time, managing Bowman’s confidence may be a challenge for the Canes.
by curiouscanesfan on Aug 13, 2010 12:01 PM EDT reply actions
Drayson Bowman
Drayson is a prospect that I’ve mentioned in the past has just too much talent to get buried in our system. I’m hoping we can find a slot for him soon, otherwise he may have to be the odd man out on a trade, just to give the kid a chance.
I’m probably preaching to the choir with you, but for others that might not be so familiar with this kid, his experiences and statistics in juniors were just eye-opening.
I don’t know what our scouts spotted, or if it was just a case of getting lucky when the best-player-available in the third round of the 2007 draft was Drayson Bowman. However, right after we drafted him, he just exploded as an offensive talent.
He nearly doubled his scoring, from 43 to 82 points the following season to lead his team in scoring, with 42 goals. He then followed that season with a 47-goal 83-point season the following year before turning pro.
He was a point-a-game guy in both playoff years, and his team won the WHL the season after the draft. They then went on to win the Memorial Cup (winners of each of the three Canadian junior leagues meet), where he scored a hat trick in the opening game and scored in every game of the tournament.
The kid’s just had terrific winning experiences and is an offensive phenom, at least at the junior level. AD and others can take up the baton as to his AHL experiences and track record, but we’re all hoping those skills translate to the NHL. He’s stumbled a bit so far, which is why his 7.5 (equal to Boychuk’s and Dalpe’s) has a “C” appended to it, acknowledging that there’s some reasonable doubts that need to be overcome as to whether he can make it to the first or second line level in the NHL.
Can’t wait to see what he can do…once we find him some roster room to do so past pre-season.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Drayson Bowman
Drayson Bowman is a player who has really been impressing me as I’ve been watching the 2009-2010 season. I didn’t get through all the AHL games on video because the knuckeheads at AHLLIVE decided they wanted to put a time constraint on the availability of the games. In any event, Bowman has worlds of talent. For an insight in to why the Hurricanes organization in general and Francis in particular is so excited about Drayson Bowman, one should go watch the high light videos of his goals. The Boychuk/Sutter/Bowman line tore up the Tampa Bay Lightning on the power play in the Canes 8 to 5 victory. It’s also worth trying to find some of Francis’ and Jim Rutherford’s public comments about Bowman, which are glowing. All that being said, the Hurricanes only have so many top nine spots available. Bowman continues to be regarded as a fast, natural scoring forward by the Hurricanes – so the rumors of Bowman lacking foot speed really are unfounded.
If the pre-season goes as I think it will, Jim Rutherford will carve out some additional roster spots for his young, prized forward and defense talent. That’s my prediction, and I’m sticking to it, at least until facts change my prognostications.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Canes Country
Related FanShots on Canes Country
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recent FanShots
In Association With
Latest Puck Daddy - NHL from Yahoo! Sports
- Why the Devils and the Kings are evidence the Capitals shouldn’t trade Alex Ovechkin
- Eulogy: Remembering the 2011-12 New York Rangers
- Stanley Cup Final: 5 keys for New Jersey Devils and Los Angeles Kings
- Friday’s Three Stars: Devils head to Final; Brodeur, Kovalchuk the difference in Game 6
- Devils eliminate Rangers in Game 6, ending fear of the past, setting course for the future
