Even Strength Minutes And Lines
by Bob Wage on Aug 23, 2010 8:01 AM EDT
Email
PrintLast week, there was a very lively discussion going on in the Fanpost section regarding the Hurricanes potential fourth line. In relation to this, I recently came across an article over at "Copper and Blue" which disclosed the team by team average "time on ice" results for each club's forward lines last season.
Lines were determined by comparing each forward's even strength average "time on ice", then separating them into lines from top to bottom, (1-3, 4-6, 7-9. 10-15.) Keep in mind that this is not an exact science and things like injuries and trades can play havoc with the results. Still, the individual time on ice results tend to match with what the Hurricanes were doing in the second half of the season last year and give a pretty good indication of how many minutes the fourth line was playing.
When compared to other teams, the Hurricanes fourth line averaged playing 10:13 minutes per game, the eighth highest amount in the league. The Colorado Avalanche fourth line had the lowest number at 6.90 minutes per game while the Montreal Canadiens came in first at 11:37.
The chart with the results is at this link.
After the jump, we'll take a look at the top 15 forwards even strength average ice time last season for the Canes.
- Eric Staal 15:40
- Ray Whitney 15:07
- Erik Cole 13:35
- Chad LaRose 13:28
- Matt Cullen 13:25
- Tuomo Ruutu 13:20
- Jussi Jokinen 13:10
- Brandon Sutter 12:54
- Jiri Tlusty 11:41
- Sergei Samsonov 11:05
- Drayson Bowman 10:28
- Patrick Dwyer 10:20
- Rod Brind`Amour 10:12
- Tom Kostopoulos 10:12
- Zach Boychuk 10:02
Perhaps the time was split a bit more evenly than some thought? Will the fourth line this coming season play fewer or more minutes than last season?
_____
Speaking of the Copper and Blue, they also recently published an interesting article entitled "Best Forwards in the NHL, Normalizing the Corsi". We have not delved into Corsi numbers much here. Some consider them to be relevant and important, others not so much. Here is a definition of what they are by "Hockey Numbers".
Corsi Number
Corsi number is the number of shots directed towards the net while the player is on the ice. The number can be broken down into whose net the shots are directed towards (their own net (-) and their opponent's net (+)) similar to the plus minus statistic. The hope of course is that the Corsi plus minus would correlate well with the regular plus minus, but because the numbers will be 16x larger than plus minus numbers they'll be about 4x more accurate than the plus minus numbers.
In essence, the rating measures even strength shots on goal, for and against. The higher the number, the better the player.
Derek Zona compiled the last three years of Corsi results, then incorporated in a "tough competition" factor, and came up with what he calls a "Normalized Corsi" statistic. This takes the Corsi numbers for each player while they are on the ice versus the opposition's toughest competition.
In Derek's results, Pavel Datsyuk came in first, Henrik Zetterberg was number two, and Eric Staal came in third.
It's surprising that Alexander Ovechkin did not finish in the top 10, especially considering he leads the league in shots on goal every year, but it must mean that other teams also have a lot of shots on goal when he is on the ice.
Regardless, it's a good stat for Staal who does have to face the NHL's best, night in and night out.
20 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
It’s surprising that Alexander Ovechkin did not finish in the top 10, especially considering he leads the league in shots on goal every year, but it must mean that other teams also have a lot of shots on goal when he is on the ice.
There are sixteen forwards that have played the tough minutes each of the last three years. Broken out by position they are:
Left Wing:
Jochen Hecht, Ilya Kovalchuk, Henrik Zetterberg
Center:
Pavel Datsyuk, Scott Gomez, Martin Hanzal, Shawn Horcoff, Jay McClement, Samuel Pahlsson, Mike Richards, Eric Staal, Stephen Weiss,
Right Wing:
Daniel Alfredsson, Milan Hejduk, Rick Nash, Martin St. Louis
Ovechkin doesn’t show up because his team doesn’t use him to do the heavy lifting. Bruce Boudreau doesn’t line match forwards. At all.
If you want content, go to the Copper and Blue. If you want numbers, go to Behind the Net. If you want craziness, go to Pension Plan Puppets. If you want humor, go to Battle of California.If you want discussion, go to Broad Street Hockey. If you want bravery, go to Five For Howling.
If you want all of the above, go to Japers' Rink.
My blog and Twitter.
so is that an admission that Boudreau’s not a very good coach or Ovie can’t/doesn’t want to play defense.
Zero of the latter, a bit of the former. The only sort of sustained success a Caps line has had against another is really Steckel-Laich-Bradley against Crosby in the 2009 ECSF. They don’t have a defensive specialist line up front, so they just roll ‘em. On defense he does match but not religiously. His philosophy is that each line should be able to hold it’s own defensively and not get complacent.
I wished he’d used the Fedorov-Semin line in 2009 as a shutdown line since Fedorov is a Corsi superstar and Semin provides solid backup two-way play, but he didn’t. Now I want him to use the Ovechkin-Backstrom line as such.
If you want content, go to the Copper and Blue. If you want numbers, go to Behind the Net. If you want craziness, go to Pension Plan Puppets. If you want humor, go to Battle of California.If you want discussion, go to Broad Street Hockey. If you want bravery, go to Five For Howling.
If you want all of the above, go to Japers' Rink.
My blog and Twitter.
by red army line on Aug 23, 2010 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions
I disagree about Ovie, I think he can and does at times play solid d, but it’s inconsistent (doesn’t always backcheck hard) and he does not have the commitment level some of the other elite forwards. Part of it is he’s a winger and not a center & the other part of it is his focus – scoring goals.
I agree completely, but I just don’t think the situation in which Boudreau uses a player indicates a player’s aptitude to play that role. For example, Tom Poti was like 5th in the league in PK TOI/gm, and he flat out sucks (his GAON/60 4-on-5 is the second highest or highest of regular Caps PKers). Meanwhile, Semin and Backstrom are amazing PKers but don’t see all that much time. Green was amazing in 2008-2009 but only saw a minute a game. And so on.
If you want content, go to the Copper and Blue. If you want numbers, go to Behind the Net. If you want craziness, go to Pension Plan Puppets. If you want humor, go to Battle of California.If you want discussion, go to Broad Street Hockey. If you want bravery, go to Five For Howling.
If you want all of the above, go to Japers' Rink.
My blog and Twitter.
by red army line on Aug 23, 2010 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
good morning all
Bob you are right on with this topic…and Red Army line…you also hit a bulls eye…if there was a "major fault or flaw…that is it for the whole team…and NOT just “ovie”…Good to see ya here…
And if it Aint Hockey,It Aint Nothin !!
That Checkers 3rd Sweater ROCKS !!!
Leveling Minutes to Suit the Talent
It was clear to me that the Hurricanes organization decided around late December to bring up younger players and to level the minutes to an extent for even strength. Other than Staal and Whitney, the even strength minutes are quite close. Next season, all it would take to have the even strength time even more level is to add two to three more shifts for the players who are in the 10 minute average. These statistics demonstrate the fact that at least as of December, 2009 until the end of the season, there was not an enormous gulf in time on ice at even strength for the vast majority of the top 15 forwards, and certainly for 13 out of fifteen forwards. With Whitney no longer on the team, it makes sense to spread the time on ice he had among the forwards.
- Erik Cole 13:35
- Chad LaRose 13:28
- Matt Cullen 13:25
- Tuomo Ruutu 13:20
- Jussi Jokinen 13:10
- Brandon Sutter 12:54
- Jiri Tlusty 11:41
- Sergei Samsonov 11:05
- Drayson Bowman 10:28
- Patrick Dwyer 10:20
- Rod Brind`Amour 10:12
- Tom Kostopoulos 10:12
- Zach Boychuk 10:02
More stats, even strength time, overall on ice time, and Corsi numbers, to show what Staal means to this team. People are way too critical of Staal for what he accomplishes.
Numbers that surprise me here are Tlusty and Boychuk’s minutes. Boychuk seemed like he was on the ice a lot. At least way more than KO.
Is it October yet?
by hotchipsnsalsa on Aug 23, 2010 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Boychuk and Impact Shifts
Interestingly, in the figures for comparison of penalties drawn versus penalties taken, Boychuk had 11 penalties drawn and 1 penalty taken. When one weighs the limited amount of time on ice that Boychuk received in 2009-2010 that statistic is even more impressive. My impression is that the penalties drawn increased in Boychuk’s second stint with the Hurricanes which means that in a very short period of time Boychuk was able to draw a significant number of penalties and help disrupt the flow of the opposing team’s game.
The Hurricanes organization seemed determined not to over-play Boychuk and to bring him along slowly. I don’t know if Cory can check Boychuk’s time on ice in the first stint with the Hurricanes and compare it to Boychuk’s time on ice (even strength) during his second stint. My impression is that Boychuk’s time on ice at even strength did not vary dramatically even on the second stint and that he was given 9 to 11 minutes as a general rule. Maybe it is similar to baseball where teams have a pitch count for their younger pitchers and take them out even they are throwing darts once they hit the pitch count.
No, I don’t think you can make the baseball comparison rather PM like most coaches has an idea of how many minutes he wants to allocate to each line, if he varies from that it’s because of the score or special teams (lots of PP’s really push down 4th line minutes). PM really seems to shorten the bench in close games in the 3rd period, I expect the same this season.
With a better power play, Boychuk becomes more valuable
With McBain, Babchuk, Corso and Pitkanen for power plays, Boychuk’s ability to draw penalties should pay off in goals in this coming season. That’s all the more reason to play Boychuk a lot. It’s also a measure of his ability. Teams have to commit penalties to stop him. That means Boychuk’s modest point total last year may not be the measure of his future scoring.
by curiouscanesfan on Aug 23, 2010 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Don't the even strength minutes show . . .
That guys roles were changing throughout the season. Be it injury, improved play or decreased level of play. Outside of Staal and Whitney all the guys on that top 15 list were moved around as injuries required. For instance Sergei probably started off with higher minutes but had them reduced as he found his way to the fourth line. Sutter started off with fewer but found them increased as he played his way up.
What would be interesting would be the standard deviations from the average for all players. That would show a measure of spread of the data sets. Maybe if I get time tonight I’ll pull that data together and post something. My guess is that the standard deviations for players other than Staal and Whitney, and to a lesser extent Cullen, will be high, showing a great deal of drift in EV strength time per game.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
I buy your hypothesis. It was a season of transition.
I think your targeted variable will indeed show up in the data, if you can find time to do such an analysis, and will substantiate your theory.
Here we are now...entertain us.
I can’t find the individual time on ice by situation data anywhere. I can find the game by game stats, but the TOI isn’t split out by EV Strength, PP, and PK. Any idea where I can get that? If someone can point me to it I’ll pull the data together.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Staal ice time
Do we get to deduct the seconds that Staal spends languishing on his butt on the ice, gesturing and whining to the refs everytime he gets knocked down? How does that affect his TOI?
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Latest Puck Daddy - NHL from Yahoo! Sports
- Puck Previews: Blues host Kings in first game after break; Blackhawks’ road struggles
- Best barometer of the St. Louis Blues’ success? Gifts from political lobbyists
- ‘Scott Gomez Can’t Put Anything In’: The ‘Hey Jude’ of Scott Gomez protest songs (Video)
- Puck Headlines: Jimmy Howard’s injury; top 50 players; drinking beer out of hockey skate (yuck)
- Jersey Fouls: Wayne Gretzky embarrassments; homemade Sedin; minor league Yzerman
Latest stories and headlines from NHL.com
- Oilers' Gagner still in awe of his 8-goal night
- Website highlights Scott Gomez's one-year (well, almost) scoring drought
- Montreal Canadiens recall Palushaj, Blunden not expected to face Capitals
- Center Vitale signs a two-year, US$1.1-million extension with Penguins
- Sabres G Miller a win short of breaking Hasek mark
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
