SB Nation's "Expansion Draft"
by Bob Wage on Aug 28, 2010 8:33 PM EDT
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PrintA couple of the gurus within our great hockey network of blogs were hypothesizing what it might be like if the NHL held an expansion draft. Who would current teams protect? Who would be drafted? What would the lineups be like after the draft and would those two new teams be competitve at all?
Of course, you need to have actual expansion teams in order to have a parallel draft, so it was decided to run the whole way with this. Choose expansion cities, give the teams a name, protect players, and then hold the draft.
This thing took off a bit faster than I expected and the expansion cities have already been selected, (Winnipeg and Quebec City), but the voting is now open for the team names. If the concept interests you, go to SB Nation Hockey for more information.
Toward the middle of the week, we at Canes Country will be discussing which players the Carolina Hurricanes will be protecting.
After the jump, check out the "league's protection rules".
*Ground rules on protected lists:*
- Teams can protect either "1 goalie, 5 defensemen and 9 forwards" OR "2
goalies, 3 defensemen and 7 forwards."
- If you go the two goalie route, at least one goalie left unprotected must
have played in at least 10 games last season OR 25 games in the last two
seasons combined. One game = at least 31 minutes.
- Each team must leave unprotected at least one defenseman who appeared in
40 games last season OR 70 games in the last two seasons combined.
- Each team must leave unprotected at least two forwards who appeared in 40
games last season OR 70 games in the last two seasons combined.
- Players who have played in 49 or fewer games are automatically exempt and
do not need to be protected.
*
Ground rules on drafting:*
- Each expansion team selects 30 players. A total of 60 players will be
selected.
- The first 26 picks are to be used on three goaltenders, eight defensemen
and thirteen forwards.
- The final four picks can be used to pick a player at any position.
- Only one goalie or one defenseman can be selected from each existing team.
- Team must be compliant with the salary cap.
Share your ideas here if you want to participate and we will submit Carolina's "protected list" to the league on Thursday.
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Good idea Bob!
I actually wrote a blog about this last year. The rosters are out of date, but you get a good idea of what things might end up like if this sort of thing were to happen. Here’s my original post:
http://greaticepectations.blogspot.com/2009/10/mock-expansion-draft.html
www.prosportsblogging.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on Aug 28, 2010 8:46 PM EDT reply actions
Protected List
1 Goalie: Ward,
5 Defensemen: Gleason, Pitkanen, Carson, Sanguinetti, McBain (I’m assuming this is for after 2010-2011 season)
9 Forwards: Staal, Sutter, Jokinen, Ruutu, Boychuk, Dalpe, Nash, Tlusty, Bowman, (I’m assuming Skinner does not meet the 40 game criterion and is automatically protected)
This is my first draft. I may well revisit the idea as I see what others say.
Good list so far but you wouldnt need to protect Boychuk, Dalphe, Nash and Bowman would you? Considering none of them have played 49 NHL games yet? Or is it 49 games over every league? … Although that would be weird…
2010 Expansion
Let’s assume the expansion draft is August, 2010
Players who don’t need protection: Boychuk, Bowman, Skinner, Osala, Nash, Dalpe, McBain, Peters,
Players protected:
1 Goalie: Cam Ward
9 Forwards: Staal, Sutter, Ruutu, Jokinen, LaRose, Cole, Tlusty, Kostopoulos, Dwyer
5 Defensemen: Gleason, Pitkanen, Corvo, Babchuk, Carson
In short, an expansion draft would have essentially no impact on the Hurricanes if it were to occur in 2010.
Let me said, in Quebec citie, the name of another NHL team will be Nordique.
Actually, we prepare a walk in the park, look like a fest, on the plaine d’Abraham.
If you want to registre our manifest:
http://www.nordiquesnation.com/
Around 30 000 fans will be there next october 2 to manifest our interest for having a team in the old Capital.
Some rumor talk more about buying a team them waiting for a expansion. Wich team? Atlanta, Florida, NYL and Phoenix. But there only rumor.
NHL Needs to Expand
I continue to believe the NHL needs to quickly expand to 30 teams as part of the new CBA. The talent pool of players vastly exceeds the number of roster spots for 30 teams. Quebec seems to be a logical place to expand. Winnipeg seems like another logical place to expand.
I think it that first sentence you mean “Expand beyond 30 teams…” perhaps.
"The increase in pain is way beyond what you would expect a person to play with," said coach Paul Maurice. "Unfortunately it’s even beyond what Tim Gleason can play with, because he can play with just about anything."
I don’t think Expansion would benefit revenues as much as relocating teams. If Phoenix and Florida or Nashville were moved to say Quebec City, Southern Ontario, Winnipeg, Seattle, or a second Toronto team the NHL would significantly improve revenues, shore up ownership, and likely help other struggling teams by being able to provide more revenue sharing. I don’t see how 32 teams helps.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
32 Teams
The NHL has been adamant it is committed to expanding its footprint and that it will not readily approve the movement of existing franchises. Additionally, after watching hour after hour of AHL games and other NHL games, I came away 100% convinced that the salary of mid to lower NHL players is being adversely affected by the huge number of very qualified hockey players. The supply of these mid to lower NHL players vastly exceeds the number of NHL roster spots. Expanding to 32 teams would help the NHL ready players, would give some players a chance to develop into superstars, would expand the footprint of the NHL to other markets, and would ease the tension between the NHLPA and the owners.
Going to 32 teams would not help the struggling franchises that already exist. Also, no one wants to watch a bunch of mid to low level talent. People want to watch top talent. If people wanted to watch mid to low level talent the AHL would pull in a lot more fans than it does. There aren’t enough top tier players in the NHL right now to go around. Nor are there enough owners willing to buy teams. Nor are there enough markets to support said teams.
The NHL isn’t opposed to movement. They’re opposed to movement right now. They’ve said as much in the Phoenix case. They goal is to try to keep hockey where it’s at, but they’ve said if no buyer if willing to keep the team in Phoenix the league will look to move the team after this season.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
I disagree with your assessment on a number of different levels. There are only so many spots in a 30 team system for top six, much less top three, forwards. Players like Jokinen can star on the first line when they get the right pairings. Throughout the AHL and the OHL and in the NHL are budding stars. People will come to see great hockey and Chicago shows how teams that once were considered jokes can become contenders. Unless one sees the games being played across the NHL and AHL it is easy to miss how much young talent exists. Look at the UFA situation. One could build a contender around the UFAs who were unsigned as of August 1st.
Great hockey is played by great players not “mid to lower NHL players”.
Name the best forward on Phoenix. Name the best forward on Columbus who isn’t Rick Nash. Name the best forward on Nashville. Name 6 true top six forwards on Florida. The current talent levels don’t fill the existing top six on all 30 teams in the NHL. If the players in the AHL were so good, they would be filling those spots now.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
1) Doan
2) Vermette
3) Ok, I’m Stumped (pun intended)
I agree though. Many people make the opposite argument, that talent is too dilute, rather than it’s too concentrated. I mean, how great were the Olympics?
by red army line on Aug 29, 2010 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I like the Stumped comment. Funny stuff.
Thanks for bringing up the Olympics. The previous Olympic tournament was the greatest hockey tournament I’ve ever seen. The NHL need quality players at most spots before they go expanding. The NHL should look more like the Olympics and less like the AHL or SEL, leagues that are populated solely by “mid to lower NHL players”.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
+1 on the Olympic tournament – it was AWESOME!!!! But, I am still pissed Crosby scored the winner….funny part is, I liked him a lot more before I moved to Pittsburgh!
by PittsburghCaniac on Sep 2, 2010 1:25 AM EDT up reply actions
I actually hate the Penguins more than the Caps.
by PittsburghCaniac on Sep 2, 2010 1:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Stephen Weiss is actually a pretty good Center for Florida… Just crappy talent around him. Columbus also has Nikita Filatov (untested but 1st line potential) and Jakub Voracek who are pretty decent.
Every team in the league has some talent, but not every team has enough talent to be competitive, some of that is about re-building, some of it is poor management, some of it is because there is a lack of talented players.
When it comes to the playoffs is anyone really upset about the teams that don’t qualify? Does anyone really believe that the #9 team in either league could really compete for the cup or at least the conference championship? If there is anyone who believes that I haven’t met them. It’s the same reason there was such a fan backlash about expanding the NCAA tournament to 96 teams. No one wants to see meaningless games.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
The AHL players are often stuck there because GMs are stuck with salaries of under-producing veterans. Look at the salary the Hurricanes unloaded this season. Phoenix is a great example. Phoenix has some excellent young talent at forward. Hanzal, Boedker, Wolski, for example, are all players the Hurricanes should love to have on their team. I think your conclusion is flawed; and I doubt seriously if you went randomly to watch any ten AHL games you would come to the same conclusion. A very good source of ranking and scouting information is www.hockeysfuture.com; and Cory is one of the writers for them.
Doug, let me break it down for you. You’re contending that there is a talent pool that is large enough to support more hockey teams than currently exist. However, you qualify it saying that there is a glut of “mid to lower level NHL players”.
I contend that having a glut of mid to low level talent is not a reason to expand. There are a glut of fry cooks on the job market today, but that is no reason to expand the number of fast food restaurants.
There is and will always be a glut of talent on the low end and this will always impact the salaries of those players. Talent is distributed like a pyramid where there are a few top tier talents and a lot of lower level talents. To continue the fry cook analogy that’s why there are millions of fry cooks and only a few CEOs. No one is paying to see low level hockey players just like no one is investing in a company because of a fry cook. People pay and want to see top talent just like people want to invest in well run companies.
You keep harping on promise, but not on talent. It’s funny that you post a link to a website that has “future” in the title to somehow prove a point about today. It would seems as if you’re maybe confusing tomorrow for today.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Talent and Performance
I think the best way to tell the potential of a hockey player is to watch them play hockey. I don’t see any reference at all to support your contention that there is a glut of low level to medium level talent. It is a flawed premise in my view unless you consider players such as Sutter, Boychuk, Dalpe, Skinner, Bowman, Tlusty, Mueller, Wolski, Hanzal, Alexandre Picard (the forward), Frolik, Grabner, Booth, etc. to be mid to low level talent. I don’t agree they are low to mid level talent. To the contrary, I think you have rushed to judgment without spending sufficient time watching NHL and AHL games to determine if your premise is supported by the data. If there is any NHL game you’ve watched where the young talented forwards on a team were hopelessly outclassed by those players you assert are the creme de le creme, I will be happy to watch the game video. My belief is you cannot find even a single game where the talented young forwards seemed lost and out of place.
You heard of developing players in the AHL? It’s general consensus—I won’t say whether I agree or disagree—that if you put a guy in the NHL too early, he might turn out like Kyle Turris, whereas if you let him take his time, he could reach his potential. Seems like outside of Crosbys and Ovechkins there is some balance between AHL and NHL time that a player needs.
there is a glut of low level to medium level talent.
How many top-tier talents that aren’t contemplating retirement are currently unrestricted free agents? Two—Ilya Kovalchuk and Paul Kariya. The former is about to be signed and the latter has concussion issues.
How many low-to-mid level talents are unemployed? Lots.
by red army line on Aug 29, 2010 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I think there is an inverse relationship between the number of AHL games and NHL games that a person watches and their adherence to the dogma that the AHL and NHL have a glut of low level to mid level talent. Specifically, it seems very few people actually watch five or more AHL games; but despite not watching AHL games, they render adamant opinions about the quality of the players in the AHL. It’s about as reliable as saying I heard from a friend that a move was awesome or terrible.
Doug, do you notice how your argument keeps coming down to “but I’ve seen it and you haven’t na na na boo boo stick your head in doo doo”? Honestly, if the talent was there in the AHL it would be playing in the NHL.
1) NHL teams want to win. 2) They will have the best talent on their team they can have and fit under the salary cap. If we accept those statements as true, and you’d have a hard time discounting either, you see that the most talented players at a team’s disposal are in the NHL. So, I’m going to side with the people who are paid to watch hockey games, i.e. the Owners, GMs, scouts, and coaches in this situation over your amateur opinions.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Well, yes, that is the point. You seem content to comment on the quality of players and leagues when I am skeptical you have even seen 5 AHL games and I suspect you have not watched many NHL games other than games against the Hurricanes. In my view, therefore, you ought to watch a movie before you review it; you ought to read a book before you decide to condemn the author. I find that to be a basic step in analysis.
AD, it doesn’t count for a whit that you’ve watched tons of AHL games.
The point is, there’s a reason there’s an AHL and there’s a NHL. The talent line between the two moves with expansion.
You cannot take a one-year phenomenon such as the Canes are experiencing this year and translate it to 30 teams for all seasons.
Any other season we’d be sucking wind to pull anything at all resembling NHL talent from our AHL ranks.
Plus, just because someone can succeed in the AHL means little for prediction of success in the NHL.
There may be valid reasons for the league to expand. But, they are marketing and economic in nature, not because the deep well of talent in the AHL demands it.
Here we are now...entertain us.
I suppose you think you can tell whether a movie is great or awful when you read the title. The deep well of talent in the AHL and the OHL is inarguable as long as somebody takes the time to watch the players perform. Even if one only watches the players being called up from the AHL and watches them perform, it is beyond argument that the talent pool exceeds the roster spots. For example, San Jose was rotating its AHL players to the Sharks. Their young forwards were outstanding. Chicago likewise rotated some of its younger players to and from the AHL.
It’s really not a difficult proposition: watch the games and then use actual games to prove your conclusion. Otherwise, the statements are full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
So, for proof you offer:
“The deep well of talent in the AHL and the OHL is inarguable…”
“…it is beyond argument that the talent pool exceeds the roster spots.”
and, of course, finishing with something evidently from the classics: “full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.”
Captain of your debate team by any chance?
Compelling arguments, one and all.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Well, it is not hard to disprove an argument based on no facts, having never seen the very league the person is criticizing, and offering conclusions based on no analysis. Step one is to take the time to watch the games and decide for yourself whether the AHL teams are or are not loaded with talent capable of making an impact in the NHL. Without that as a foundation, the opinions are intuition based.
Doug, I’ve seen AHL games. I’ve been asked to write articles for this site about those games.
Again, I’m not the one making the case or claiming to be the expert. You are. You are the plaintiff in this case. Present your prima facie on something that isn’t based on you claiming to be an expert or defend your expert status. This should be a simple task for a trained litigator.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Actually, please do list the AHL games you watched and upon which you rely for saying there is an absence of NHL ready talent in the AHL.
I suggest if you can find the games involving the Worcester Sharks, those games in conjunction with the Rats games, will be more than adequate proof of the amazing talent in the AHL.
Doug, you’re a lawyer, so this should come as no shock to you, but since you are the one making the case your have to prove your point first. As the defendant in this matter I have no need to prove my side until yours is proven. Any high school student in the debate club knows this. This shouldn’t be a foreign concept to someone who claims to be a lawyer.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Doug, if you want to hold yourself up as an expert you should be able to handle criticism. You have sort of made a case and I have rebutted and refuted that. I’ve not resorted to ad hominem attacks and I’d respect that if you did the same. As someone who claims to practice law I would assume that you know such attacks irrelevant to logical discourse and not allowed in legal proceedings.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
It is not at all a personal attack to question the factual basis for your assertions. That indeed is the essence of civil discourse. In my view, your conclusions about the AHL level of talent run counter to the facts. The only way I can conceive of judging the talent available at the AHL is to (1) watch AHL games and (2) watch NHL games in which AHL players are called up.
What I don’t understand is why a person who didn’t watch AHL games would be adamant that there is not much talent there.
Doug, I’ve seen AHL games. I’ve been asked to write articles for this site about those games.
Again, I’m not the one making the case or claiming to be the expert. You are. You are the plaintiff in this case. Present your prima facie on something that isn’t based on you claiming to be an expert or defend your expert status. This should be a simple task for a trained litigator.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
I watched the Calder Cup Finals, so the best teams in the AHL. I watched other Hershey playoff games. Not a big sample size, but I was watching the best, and clearly, clearly, they’re not NHL ready. The speed of thinking isn’t there, though the skill may be.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Doug, I’m quoting you when I say there is a glut of low to mid level NHL talent. Read your post fro 7:34 a.m. PDT. Can you honestly not even remember what you have written?
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
If you interpreted my statement to mean the phletora of talent at present in the NHL and AHL of NHL ready players who are mid-level to lower level players means they are just scraping by, then you misinterpreted me. The point is quite different. There are only a few generational players – Crosby, Ovechkin, and perhaps Malkin. There are, however, a number of superstars – E. Staal, Semin, Getzlaf, Parise, Kovalchuk, Hossa, Kane, Toews, to name a few. Below them are very, very talented players who are exciting, talented players.
My point was that these highly talented players, some of whom are at present mid-level and some of whom are quality players, but lower level, vastly exceed the number of roster spots. Some will develop into stars and superstars given the chance. These players are capable of turning a team into a very, very competitive team. For example, Ruutu, Jokinen, Sutter, Boychuk, Dalpe, Nash, Tlusty, Skinner, and Bowman are all players who could form the core of a winning team. Some of the young forwards are likely to become both stars and two or three could become all-stars.
To try to assess their ability or the ability of other similarly situated players – Mueller, Wolski, among others, without watching them play is impossible.
My point was that these highly talented players, some of whom are at present mid-level and some of whom are quality players, but lower level, vastly exceed the number of roster spots.
Any numbers to characterize this or are you conjecturing?
You’re holding yourself up as an expert. What are your credentials? Are you claiming the in addition to being a lawyer, something I have troubles believing as you can’t even present a prima facie argument on this or any other topic, you are also an expert on hockey talent? If you are I would love to hear why you believe that you are an expert. Since the basis of what you’re saying is that you’ve watched and that you know, please defend your expert status.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
I don’t at all claim to be any form of expert in hockey. On the other hand, I do believe it is impossible to defend a premise about the level of talent at the AHL without watching the games and reaching some decision based on visualizing the games.
In fact, because I am the opposite of a hockey expert, I realize that if I can tell players like Boychuk, McBain, Dalpe, Bowman, Carson, Tlusty, and Osala were absolutely NHL ready, it must be completely apparent to the real experts. If you want to watch the best examples of the Hurricanes at the AHL level, watch the Rats in the Calder Cup playoffs.
So if you’re not an expert that why should anyone accept your position? If you are not an expert how can you:
tell players like Boychuk, McBain, Dalpe, Bowman, Carson, Tlusty, and Osala were absolutely NHL ready
Wouldn’t one have to be an expert to make that claim.
it must be completely apparent to the real experts
If it is back that up with some sources from real experts. It’s not that hard. Type something in to google, read the article and if it supports your case post a link.
Again, make your prima facie case for expansion. You’ve yet to do that. Your original argument was based on you being an expert and you’ve since denied that you’re an expert. This shouldn’t be that hard for someone who is actually a lawyer.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
“In fact, because I am the opposite of a hockey expert, I realize that if I can tell players like Boychuk, McBain, Dalpe, Bowman, Carson, Tlusty, and Osala were absolutely NHL ready, it must be completely apparent to the real experts.”
So…you’re not an expert…but you can definitively tell that all of these players are “absolutely NHL ready”.
Someone tell them to cancel training camp. We’re done.
Here we are now...entertain us.
I am not foolish enough to suggest that I could possibly condemn the quality of a hockey league when I hadn’t watched more than four or five games. On the other hand, it doesn’t take a resident expert to watch players like Boychuk/Dalpe/Osala dominate another team such as Hershey in the Calder Cup players and realize these players are ready for the NHL. With McBain, it was similarly totally obvious event to my untrained eyes that he was going to be a special player for the Hurricanes. All it takes is being willing to watch games before reaching an opinion. That seems like a small sacrifice.
Do you have any evidence to support that you’ve even seen an AHL game? I’ve had two articles published on this site that were write ups of AHL games. What are your credentials?
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
So here is the question:
How may AHL games have you actually watched?
Here is my answer to the question:
I have watched over 150 AHL games, including Calder Cup games. In the 2009-2010 season, I watched all the Rats games at least once. For some of the games, I watched them several times to try to assess which Rats players were likely to succeed with the Canes.
It doesn’t make me an expert; but I think I’d rather look at the cards I am holding in my hand rather than guessing whether or not I had a good hand prior to looking at them. I am skeptical whether you have sufficient data upon which to base your conclusions.
Watched in person or on TV? Where did you watch them? Did you watch any other team than the Rats or the Calder Cup?
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
I watched on AHLLIVE.
This year, I watched the Rats in the Calder Cup and followed Hersey in the Calder Cup. AHLLIVE, unlike NHL GAME CENTER is restricted to a particular team unless one pays a small fortune.
So other than watching the Rats play the Admirals in two games, what other AHL games have you watched and upon which you base your assertions?
The Posts from the AHL by
Here are the two posts. I think they are well-written and informative:
http://www.canescountry.com/2010/3/6/1359900/report-from-norfolk-mcbain-shines
http://www.canescountry.com/2010/3/8/1362547/report-from-norfolk-part-deux
Comments from the games by C-Leaguer:
From Game 1:
- Overall I was quite impressed by the play of Jamie McBain. He was able to quarterback the first unit powerplay and lead the penalty kill. His skating was smooth and his outlet passes were well disguised. He made a play on the PK midway through the third were he followed the puck from the far corner up to the half wall at which point the puck was passed back to the point. He continued to follow the puck to the point appearing to take himself out of a solid defensive position. However, instead of being out of position, he was perfectly placed to force a bad pass from the pointman, intercept the puck, and start a 2 on 2 break out the other way. He wasn’t dominating, but he was in control and taking in everything on the ice while he was skating. He was also able to make a nice move in his shoot out attempt out waiting the goal and rolling a puck off Janus’ back and in to the net.
- Oskar Osala had a good night, but didn’t yet seem to be in sync with his team mates. He used his size well at points and he made a point to take on the larger players on the Admirals. Whether this was to make a statement to his team mates or to management is unknown, but it was nice to see the 6’4" 220 pounder play big. That said, the big man did receive a lot of time on the PP and, with the exception of the last thirty seconds of OT, he did not park himself on the crease. He did crash the net after shots were fired, but he did not put himself out there to be a screen on the PP the way someone his size could. Whether this was due to his tendencies as a player, him not being used to the system, or Jeff Daniels coaching remains to be seen. Osala did handle himself and the puck well on the perimeter, showing that he is perhaps more than just a big screen. That said, it was nice to see Osala park himself in front of the net during the final thirty seconds of OT after Daniels drew up the play.
from Game 2:
Oskar Osala continued to impress. On Saturday night he played bigger. On Friday night Osala was hitting to send a message to his team mates. On Saturday he was hitting as part of the flow of the game, delivering the hits when the play called for them and using skill to avoid hits when need be. For his efforts he was rewarded with the second star of the night.
Jeff Daniels worked with Osala all night, giving him advice on the bench seemingly every time Osala came off. Osala seemed to fade in to the background late when the Rats shifted focus from scoring to shutting down the Admirals, but he wasn’t the only one to sort of fade to the background.
Jamie McBain continued to look good. He’s playing at NHL speed. He was able to go from receiving a pass to firing a shot faster than anyone on the ice. He was able to move pucks out of the zone and send pucks to open areas of the ice, be it on an offensive dump or a defensive clear. He was also taking the time he had while being pressured. On the ice he seemed to want to be in every situation; be it power play, penalty kill, late situations, or early scoring runs. His eyes were always taking in the play, even on the bench. He seems to be soaking up game situations like a sponge.
Bowman had a much better game Saturday than he did on Friday. He was able to display his speed and skill and showcase the talent that made him a top goal scorer in major juniors. It would have been nice to see him differentiate himself from the sloppy play early on Friday.
All in all I was fairly impressed with the players in the Hurricane’s system and highly impressed with the ability of the coaching staff in Albany to know and implement the system the big league club plays. The roster looked promising, especially so considering Dwyer, Sutter and Boychuk are all up with the big league team. I’m not certain that anyone in Albany other than McBain will be pushing for a roster spot come the start of the season, but I do think Osala and Bowman have an outside chance.
You do realize that’s me, right? You do realize I wrote that?
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Yes, I so realize your wrote the comments. Nowhere in the well-written comments did I see any reference to an overall lack of talent in the AHL.
typo corrected
Yes, I do realize your wrote the comments. Nowhere in the well-written comments did I see any reference to an overall lack of talent in the AHL.
I’m not certain that anyone in Albany other than McBain will be pushing for a roster spot come the start of the season
That says quite clearly the players aren’t NHL ready. This would seem to disprove your contention.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
You do realize you’re saying it’s well written and notes that few of the talents will be pushing for a roster spot?
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Do you think it is fair to judge the entire AHL based on watching two games? Do you believe it is fair to assess the talent of Bowman based on those two games as compared with his play while at Carolina?
Do you believe it is fair to judge Osala’s ability based on his play during the first two games he was with the Rats?
If you have only watched two AHL games, what other data do you rely upon to support your contention that the AHL does not have an abundance of NHL ready young players?
You’re saying there’s a wealth of talent for two additional NHL teams, and yet only using Hurricane’s prospects. Again, make your Prima Facie case that the NHL should expand. Stop attacking me and make your case.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Again, other than the two games which you wrote about and which reflect your observations at the time, what other AHL games did you watch? Other than those two games, what other data forms the basis of your assertion?
I’ve made not comments about the AHL. You have, but then said you aren’t an expert. I’m not offering any information on the AHL. Again, as a lawyer you should be aware of the need for the plaintiff to make a prima facie case. Why do you no address this? Make your case. Why should the NHL expand? Keep it to the topic and stop insulting me.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Tlusty
I assume you did not make any assessment of Tlusty during those two games because he was injured and did not play.
Doug, stop attacking me and make your case that the NHL should expand. I will not allow you to turn this in to some attack on me. Keep it on the topic. I’ve made no assertion other than the NHL shouldn’t expand. I’ve said there isn’t enough top level talent, which is at the NHL and not the AHL, and that expansion would not improve existing financial hardships. However, as I’ve noted above the onus is on you to first prove your point. That’s how debate and the law works.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
It is clearly not an attack on you to ask you whether the basis of your assertions is anything beyond the two AHL games you watched and eloquently wrote articles about.
During those two games, what about the play of the Rats and the Admirals made you conclude the entire AHL lacked sufficient depth of talent to help populate two more NHL teams. What about the players who left for the KHL? What about their play makes you believe they are not NHL ready? What about the remaining unsigned UFA players, what about their play makes you conclude there is inadequate talent to populate two more teams?
Doug, I am not asserting anything about the AHL. If this hasn’t been clear to you before now, let me make it clear now. I am not asserting anything about the AHL. As I said above my issues were the lack of top flight talent, talent which is in the NHL, and my thoughts that adding teams will exacerbate current financial hardships.
If it makes you happy I will stipulate that you have seen more AHL games. That point is irrelevant to me, but it seems to be a big deal to you. I attended the two games in Norfolk, watched games on AHL live and watched Calder Cup games on the NHL network.
Again though, make your case that the NHL should expand. You’ve already said above you are not an expert on the AHL so please make your case that the NHL should expand and cite some evidence. If you really are a lawyer this shouldn’t be that difficult. Drop this AHL business and make your case that the NHL should expand.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Unsigned UFAs
Here’s a link to the unsigned UFAs:
http://www.sportscity.com/nhl/2010-nhl-unrestricted-free-agents-by-position/
Another Link to Unsigned UFAs
http://espn.go.com/nhl/freeagents/_/type/available
Which of these unsigned UFAs do you feel are unworthy of playing in the NHL?
Before you contend that there are sufficient UFA’s to make a new team you need to prove that there are no spots for those UFAs on existing teams. The Canes for instances have at least three spots open at forward. Find out how many open spots there are on all thirty teams and then subtract that number from your available talent numbers where available talent is the unsigned UFAs and your NHL ready players who didn’t play in the NHL last season. That right there is going to eat in to your number. Capgeek.com may be the best place to determine open spots.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
If you look at www.capgeek.com you will see that there are a number of teams that are over the Cap. The Devils will have to dump players after signing Kovalchuk. The composite of a new NHL team would be from an expansion draft, the draft itself, the AHL, the NCAA, and the KHL.
If one considers there are a total of some 50 players involved, including potential call-ups for injuries, isn’t it quite clear that there are more than enough NHL ready players, unsigned UFAs, NCAA players, European players, and KHL players to field a very competitive team?
The Expansion Draft
The end result of the expansion draft will prove the point quite clearly. With 30 teams, the two teams would not even be picking two players on average from the entire NHL; not even counting the other sources of talent.
I’m not following. How will the thought experiment about the expansion draft make it clear? Just because you can make a team does not mean it will be competitive nor does it mean new teams should be made.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
What was the basis for your assertion that the expansion draft, the AHL, the European leagues, the KHL, and the NCAA would fail to yield two competitive teams?
Make the teams and tell me how they will be competitive. I’ve asked this about six times. It’s not that hard. Again, build your case. You started this with a contention that the NHL should expand and you keep contending that there is enough talent. However, you undercut your assertion that there is enough talent when you say that you are not an expert.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Making Teams
To avoid the constant evasiveness about the core issues by you, my plan is to wait until the SBnation protects the rosters and then along with others in this exercise, I will try my best to pick two competitive teams. I will also look toward the UFAs available at the start of the UFA signing period, the AHL, the NCAA, some European Leagues where appropriate or needed, and the KHL. I will leave out trades because trades are too subjective for the exercise. I challenge you to do the same. It is a level playing field in this exercise. Using your best hockey knowledge can you field two competitive teams?
Doug, what am I evading? I’ve answered how many AHL games I’ve watched. I’ve answered every question you’ve asked. The only person evading is you. Make the team.
Explain what the all-star list you posted means. You indicated in your all-star list that Keith Aucoin was of a special class. Keith Aucoin does not have the skills to play in the NHL on a consistent basis. If he did, he would be in the NHL.
Using your best hockey knowledge can you field two competitive teams?
That’s your task, not mine. It’s not my job to do your work, even if the only evidence in favor of expansion was the article that I posted.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
I had hoped my assessment of you was inaccurate;
but it’s clear to me you have made absurd conclusions and rather than re-assess you evade. I would hope that with your extensive fund of hockey knowledge picking 60 players from the expansion pool would be child’s play.
The rest of us will participate. Undoubtedly, you play the role of resident cynic.
Hockeys Future Top 50
Here is a good starting point to assess some of the top end talent not in the NHL:
http://www.hockeysfuture.com/hockey_top_50_prospects/
Hockeys Future top 50 provides an excellent beginning in understanding the depth of talent available. Then go to http://tinyurl.com/29q897p
at www.theahl.com for information on top scorers. It’s a good first step in wrapping one’s head around the talent pool.
Okay, what are you contending with these lists? Develop an argument.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Seriously, if there are 50 top prospects with Hockeys future, NHL UFAs unsigned who are 20+ goal scorers, NHL players going to the KHL because they cannot get jobs at the NHL, what is the basis for your assertion that there is insufficient talent to field two more quality NHL teams?
It would be helpful if you could state the factual basis for your opinion.
Your argument is based on the assumption that all 50 prospects will be NHL players. Only an expert can make that assumption and as you’ve said you aren’t an expert.
As for players going to the KHL, which ones are you talking about? There have been a handful and they left not because they couldn’t get a spot on a team but for money.
Again Doug, you are the plaintiff in this issue. Make your prima facie case. If you are a lawyer you should understand this concept. You keep saying that there are a lot of NHL ready players but then say you are not an expert. You have not made your case.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
You have made the case for me. It began with you asserting there was an obvious lack of talent, and that AHL didn’t have enough NHL ready talent to field two teams. We then see that your fund of knowledge about the AHL is limited.
Then we turn to other sources of talent, from the expansion draft, the NCAA, the KHL and European leagues.
Doug, it began with you asserting that there was sufficient talent. You started this. You are making the argument, not me.
My response was that there was plenty of mid to low level talent but that there wasn’t enough high level talent. I also contended that two additional teams didn’t solve the financial problems of teams like Phoenix, Nashville, and to a lesser extent Carolina and Florida.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Maybe only the top 7-8 of those are NHL ready, by the way
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
The AHL players are often stuck there because GMs are stuck with salaries of under-producing veterans.
That’s just not true. There are better reasons. (Those are two links, FYI, to Copper n Blue and Blueshirt Banter)
The American Hockey League is a professional hockey league where you have the veterans not good enough to make the NHL full time, like Alexandre Giroux and Keith Aucoin (although he did in Carolina—zing!), and some young guys who need to develop a little more to make the NHL (like McBain a little while ago, like Mike Green in 2006). Sometimes it is depth chart issues, but rarely is an overpaid veteran pushing a top-notch kid out (Karl Alzner this season aside).
by red army line on Aug 29, 2010 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
McBain and Bowman
I think McBain and Bowman are examples of young players who were ready for the NHL well before they got the call up. The Hurricanes had to first unload some players, like A. Ward, Wallin, and Alberts before McBain could get time on the ice. As I recall Ron Francis was strongly advocating for McBain being ready. Similarly, if contracts were not an issue, Bowman would have gotten more games under his belt. I agree that Hershey uses its team as a place to keep almost NHL quality veterans; but most AHL teams are like Carolina where there are four to eight NHL ready players but there are not roster spaces for them. The more you watch AHL games, the clearer it is that the AHL has young NHL ready players; and on teams like Albany/Charlotte the young players arrive ready to perform when they get the call up. Peters is another example of a player NHL ready, but in need of a roster space. For Carolina, Yelle, A. Ward, Wallin, Alberts, and Walker all were under-performing veterans and the Rats had players significantly better waiting in the wings. That situation is more the rule than the exception. If all one did was to read hockey commentators, the impression of the AHL would be entirely different than what one sees when watching AHL game after AHL game. The AHL games are by and large excellent games, played at a high level of talent.
The idea is that you don’t want to rush players. Every AHL team more or less has NHL-ready players. All those guys will get up full time within two years. That’s the nature of the AHL, and I have yet to see an instance where that is considered detrimental to the development of the player.
Also, Hershey in 2010-2011 was arguably the best AHL team ever, and they iced exactly three NHL-ready youngsters—Karl Alzner and John Carlson and Michal Neuvirth. Mathieu Perreault might be, but is not a lock. Keith Aucoin is serviceable but not a solid NHLer. Put them all in and that’s at the low end of your 4-8 NHL ready players. There are guys with skill, but you need to have a well rounded game to make the NHL. Some guys just don’t have the NHL skating (Alexandre Giroux). Some guys don’t think at an NHL level (Joe Finley). Some guys are too small and can’t compensate with other skills (Chris Bourque). Some guys lack skills altogether (Quintin Laing).
by red army line on Aug 29, 2010 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Junkyard Dogs
Of all the amusing statements I’ve seen you make during this conversation, this one cracked me up the most:
One could build a contender around the UFAs who were unsigned as of August 1st.
Honestly, AD. You should look before you leap.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Kovalchuk looks good to me
Kovalchuk was and is an UFA. He’s pretty good. Stemp was available. Niemi is available. I am on ipad, but I’ll go through the August 1st list for you. Maybe there will be some names you know and of whom you approve. Is Kovalchuk not worthy in your esteemed view?
Kovalchuk stuck with the Devils. Stempniak stuck with the Coyotes. You’d need to prove how an expansion team could pull such a player away. That will be difficult with Kovalchuk who turned down an 11 year $101 million contract from Atlanta. Source is here and he quotes Don Waddell.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
No need to bother on my account, because my point is already confirmed.
My point is that you tend to just make statements like this without even bothering to check, much less post, any factual data behind them. Only now are you reaching for a list, when challenged, and will get all technical about just who is and wasn’t signed on August 1st, just to cover yourself, instead of focusing on the point of whether or not the league needs to support the aged warriors that you’re always so quick to discard anyway.
And, I’m talking about the ones who are not caught in protracted contract negotiations, so no need to go all Kolvachuk and M. Staal on us in a blustering technical defense. And, yes, there are a handful of goalies out there as the latest fad of going cheap with the goalie sweeps through the GM ranks, some of which will be signed by mid-season as experiments start going awry.
I honestly don’t think it matters one way or another whether the NHL has its current total of players or forty-some more players.
For sure they will be forty-some of the least talented players in the league, so whoop-dee-do. The league talent is certainly diluted with their additions, however, even if hardly measurably so.
In reality expansion is all about identifying marketing opportunities for NHL teams to survive and economic plans by which the current band of owners is sufficiently enriched to allow it to happen.
Maybe the influx of American youth will eventually take up the talent slack if expansion occurs, but there’s no need to expand the league artificially to stretch the talent beyond the dreck we already see at the bottom of rosters.
Here we are now...entertain us.
by Elsker on Aug 31, 2010 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I meant exactly what I wrote about the August 1st date. You were the one who didn’t take the time to see which players were available as of August 1st. Once shown you were mistaken, you predictably rush to another topic. It was not a technical defense as you call it. Instead, you forget apparently that as of August 1st quite a number of upper level talent were still UFAs. It would be simple to admit you made the mistake; but that is not something you are prepared to do. The “dreck at the bottom of the roster”? That is a pathetic mis-statement about the state of the NHL. You were the one singing the praises of Nick Dodge. Is he the dreck at the bottom of the roster? Dodge has a battle to even make the team; yet you praised him. What a sad commentary that you prefer to find the negatives in life; even if you have to invent them.
Instead, you forget apparently that as of August 1st quite a number of upper level talent were still UFAs
Who? (And Kovy was off the board. There was zero chance he’d go unsigned, and you know it)
You keep saying that there were good players. I want a list.
by red army line on Aug 31, 2010 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
What I wrote was plain and simple: as of August 1, 2010, if one could sign all the available UFAs, one could build a contender. It is not ambiguous or complicated. Kovalchuk was unsigned as of August 1st. He is a good player, I think. Do you agree?
Here’s a list of the UFAs. http://www.sportscity.com/nhl/2010-nhl-unrestricted-free-agents-by-position/
Do you really need me to cut and paste the list for you?
You do realize that lists all players who were UFAs this summer, not just those who are still free agents. It also lists some players (Patrick Marleau for one) who was scheduled to be a UFA but resigned with their current team prior to July 1. Again, simply name these teams. You’ve got the lists. Give 4 centers, 4 LW, 4 RW, 6 D and 2 Goalies. Just name them. This shouldn’t be difficult.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Typical
It has the same list and sorce that Elsker cited. Yes, the lists have some errors on them. Now who would you pick of the August 1st UFSs? As you say it is simple.
You’re the one who says it can be done, so you done. I’m not doing this for you. Me not supporting your side isn’t somehow some great argument to prove your argument.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
by C-Leaguer on Aug 31, 2010 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Also, respond to my analysis below about AHL vs. NHL attendance. You’ve accused me of evading (although I don’t know what I’m evading). I’m accusing you of evading my analysis of attendance figures and the conclusion that these figures prove that paying customers want to see top end talent and not lower level talent.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Oh, I had looked at the list before posting, so knew exactly what level of talent lurked there.
So who is your top line center, AD?
Eric Bellanger? Stephan Yelle?
Let’s see your team.
And how would it help prove your point to include players that are still in contract negotiations as of a month ago?
Sheesh. Technical defense, as predicted.
Here we are now...entertain us.
My statement was not hard to decipher: as of August 1, 2010, with the unsigned UFAs one could build a contender if one could sign them. I’d begin probably with Kovalchuk. Stemp’s 28 goals look pretty good to me as well. Here’s the list of UFAs.
http://www.sportscity.com/nhl/2010-nhl-unrestricted-free-agents-by-position/
I will be happy to go back tonight when I get home and give you a list of those players who were unsigned as of August 1, 2010. Of course, you could cut and paste the list to put up your best team as of August 1, 2010, to see if you can craft a team you consider a possible contender.
I await your results.
You won’t see mine, because there’s not a “contender” team lurking in that junk pile.
I looked before I leaped.
Here we are now...entertain us.
by Elsker on Aug 31, 2010 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
So Kovalchuk now joins the junkpile? Of course you won’t use the list to draft a team from August 1st unsigned UFAs. Neither will you explain why fourth line players on one day are critical to winning teams; and the next post they are drecks.
Kovy was with the Devils before Aug 1. Again, if you want to say he’s going to a new team you need to make a strong case given the 9 year $102 million contract he turned down from Atlanta. I linked to the article here that quoted Don Waddell so this isn’t a rumor, it’s a fact, find the link. Kovy wasn’t going to play for a non-competitive team. If you claim he would sign with an expansion team you’ll need to make a strong case.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Nope. What I said is simple: if you could pick from all unsigned UFAs, they are a group around which one could build a contender. Kovy is on that list.
Let’s see the other 20-some, big boy.
You keep naming one player who is not even a leftover player.
Let’s see one line that looks like anything that belongs in anyone’s top six.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Will do tonight. I’m in Tenn in meetings. I feel certain you too will use your best skills to pick 20 more from the August 1st list to see if your contention has even the least bit of merit. Any complaints with Kovalchuk, Stemp., Niemi, as three worthy picks?
You can cheat and use ’em if you want, but only Niemi is truly a leftover at this point.
I have no interest in playing this game at all, but I’m not the one making wild statements that are now being challenged.
Here we are now...entertain us.
It is the words of the English language:
Is there sufficient talent among the UFAs unsigned as of August 1, 2010, such that if an NHL GM were allowed to pick or choose any of them he so desired would he have a team around which he could build a contender.
The language is not ambiguous. It’s a straight forward concept. I look forward to seeing your best efforts. If no effort is the best you can do, then that indeed speaks volumes about the lack of merit to your position.
Is there sufficient talent among the UFAs unsigned as of August 1, 2010, such that if an NHL GM were allowed to pick or choose any of them he so desired would he have a team around which he could build a contender.
The language is not ambiguous. It’s a straight forward concept. I look forward to seeing your best efforts. If no effort is the best you can do, then that indeed speaks volumes about the lack of merit to your position.
You’re the one maintaining this and you’ve given no effort to do it. I’d say your right, it does speak volumes about the lack of merit to your position.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
I feel certain you too will use your best skills to pick 20 more from the August 1st list to see if your contention has even the least bit of merit. Any complaints with Kovalchuk, Stemp., Niemi, as three worthy picks?
You’re not competing with him to play expansion sign-all-the-FAs GM. He’s asked you to build a contender based on those FAs.
Kovalchuk can score but he’s not a franchise player since he can’t drive Corsi, IMO. Stempniak had 25% shooting in Phoenix, which is unsustainable (Gretzky shot around 21% in his 92 goal year). He’s more of an 18 or so goal guy. And there are a slew of goalies better than Antti Niemi.
by red army line on Sep 1, 2010 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions
And, while you’re at it, don’t use a list from June, that has every available UFA waiting to be signed beginning July 1st to form your team, like the one that you posted above.
Know you’re a bit unpracticed in finding sources, so here’s a freebie for you, already pre-sorted for “Available”:
http://espn.go.com/nhl/freeagents/_/type/available
Here we are now...entertain us.
How does using players that have since been signed, or will be signed, by one of the 30 existing teams help your argument?
You keep wanting to use Kolvachuk to prove exactly what in your argument that the leftover talent is “inarguably” dictating the need for two more NHL teams.
Here we are now...entertain us.
It is quite simple. If one could choose from all unsigned UFAs as of August 1st you could build a contender. Take your time and put your GM hat on. Who do you choose?
Who would I choose?!? LOL!
I’m not doing your homework assignment for you, AD.
Show us this “contender” team that you would field from the unsigned UFA’s, even if you decide to cheat and use players that are signed later in August by one of the 30 existing clubs.
Who is your #1 center?
Who is your #2 center?
Who is your top D pairing?
Here we are now...entertain us.
by Elsker on Aug 31, 2010 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yes, please choose
I assume if you could prove you were correct by doing your best as a GM, you would do so.bbIf not, the only inference is you don’t know who is available. Obviously, you were not aware Kovalchuk was on that list. I lokk forward to seeing your picks.
So, let me get this straight.
You make a statement that there’s a contender among the unsigned UFA’s and you want someone else to put together a team from that list in order to prove you wrong?
What kind of logic is that?!?
Put up or shut up, AD. The ball is in your court.
Here we are now...entertain us.
It’s a logical fallacy to think that if we can’t pick a contender, it proves our point.
You believe that there is a contender there. If you can build one, then it proves that there is. If you can’t, your position is irrational.
We’ve already told you we don’t think there is a contender there.
by red army line on Sep 1, 2010 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions
What is the factual basis for this statement by you:
bq.Going to 32 teams would not help the struggling franchises that already exist. Also, no one wants to watch a bunch of mid to low level talent. People want to watch top talent. If people wanted to watch mid to low level talent the AHL would pull in a lot more fans than it does. There aren’t enough top tier players in the NHL right now to go around. Nor are there enough owners willing to buy teams. Nor are there enough markets to support said teams.bq.
Specifically, what is the your basis for saying that
If people wanted to watch mid to low level talent the AHL would pull in a lot more fans than it does. bq.
Do you really believe you have enough data from the AHL games you did watch to make that statement?
The ahl average attendance is here:
http://theahl.com/stats/schedule.php?view=attendance&season_id=30
It’s broken down by team. You will see all are less than 10,000.
Here is the average attendance by team in the NHL:
http://espn.go.com/nhl/attendance
You will note that the Coyotes were the lowest with just less than 12,000 which is approximately 2,000 more than the highest AHL team. The Coyotes are not a good example as the ownership issues kept fans away. The Islanders had 12,735 per game. They finished out of the playoffs and still on average had approximately 3,000 more fans per game than the best AHL team.
Do you really believe you have enough data from the AHL games you did watch to make that statement?
Yes, I would say I do have enough data to make that statement. Would you agree?
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Also, my watching games is irrelevant to this contention. My contention is that people want to see top talent. The attendance numbers in the AHL compared to the NHL would back that up by showing more people go to NHL games as opposed to AHL games. The only way my contention isn’t correct is if there is more talent in the AHL as compared to the NHL. Would you say the NHL has more talent than the AHL?
On another note, do you see how I cited evidence and then formulated a position based on said evidence. This is what I’m asking you to do on your contention that the NHL should expand.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Here is some further data from baseball.
In 2006 the attendance for minor teams was:
http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/article/113699
The attendance figures for MLB are:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/attendance/_/year/2006/order/false
The Marlins had the lowest attendance figure of 14,372 which is about 8,000 more than the roughly 6,400 average attendance at US AAA teams (I’m excluding the Mexican AA team). Fans have more desire to see top talent in baseball too.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
No. In fact, I could not disagree more with your assertion. I think the evidence is quite clear that even based on your comments about their being more than sufficient mid-level to lower level NHL talent in the AHL, your premise is flawed. If you look at www.capgeek.com, you will see the UFAs available next year. UFAs, of course, do not require the loss of draft picks. Given the fact you now agree that the two expansion teams from the AHL alone would have an abundance of mid level to lower level NHL talent available, then considering the UFA market, the talent pool is available to field two very competitive teams. Then add the possibility of trades, particularly where there are teams who have to unload players due to salary cap issues, the talent pool for upper end talent would be more than satisfied. Take for example the New Jersey Devils. Also, consider that Kaberle and Savard are openly on the market.
It is hard to envision anybody trying to compare attendance at NHL games to attendance at AHL games and then suggesting the predominant reason is the talent. Similarly, that argument is flawed because it assumes the two expansion teams would be AHL teams within the NHL. The AHL All-Star roster is a better example of a comparison between the talent pool of the AHL and the NHL. If the top talent in the AHL were not capable players within the NHL, why then are top prospects often groomed in the AHL.
Hossa, Kovalchuk, Heatley, Havlat, among others, changed teams and qualify as NHL Allstars. The point is that teams added to their top end talent by signing UFAs or making trades. Then, too, the expansion teams would have the benefit of top positions in the NHL entry draft.
Doug, I’ve laid out my case, I’ve presented evidence. You’ve done no such thing. I’ve spent enough time on this. I’m done here.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Actually, you have not only failed to make our your case, the information you provided proved the contrary: that with an abundance of NHL ready talent in the AHL alone, there is more than adequate NHL ready talent available to field two more competitive NHL teams.
You now agree there is an abundance of NHL ready talent, at minimum in the mid-level to lower level, to be found in the AHL. The expansion draft allows for the transfer of players from existing NHL teams to the new two teams.
The UFA market has sufficient upper level talent that the expansion teams could sign first line players. The NHL entry draft in the top eight provides players with potential star quality. High quality players are available via trade due to salary cap concerns. The KHL also provides a ready market for players with high talent. The NCAA also now has unsigned players with high talent levels.
Anybody who spent much time watching the AHL alone would conclude that within the AHL are a remarkable number of highly skilled, highly talented high level hockey players. When one adds the expansion draft, UFAs, trades, the entry draft, the KHL talent pool, the talent pool from the European leagues, and the unsigned talent from the NCAA, the conclusion is simply inarguable. There is more than sufficient talent to field two highly competitive expansion teams.
To get a good sense of the high level of talent in the AHL, here are the Canadian AHL Allstars:
2010 Canadian AHL All-Star Team
Goaltenders
x-Jonathan Bernier, Manchester
Cedrick Desjardins, Hamilton
Brent Krahn, Texas
Defensemen
x-Nolan Baumgartner, Manitoba (“C”)
Tyler Eckford, Lowell
Keaton Ellerby, Rochester
Danny Groulx, Worcester
Mark Katic, Bridgeport
Maxim Noreau, Houston
Bryan Rodney, Albany
x-P.K. Subban, Hamilton
Forwards
x-Logan Couture, Worcester
Tyler Ennis, Portland
x-Alexandre Giroux, Hershey
Andrew Gordon, Hershey
Darren Haydar, Lake Erie
Jason Jaffray, Abbotsford
x-Dustin Jeffrey, Wilkes-Barre/Scranton
Ryan Keller, Binghamton
Charles Linglet, Springfield
Corey Locke, Hartford
Jon Matsumoto, Adirondack
Cal O’Reilly, Milwaukee
Martin St. Pierre, Binghamton
x-starters
Here are the Planet USA All-stars from 2010:
2010 PlanetUSA AHL All-Star Team
Goaltenders
Anton Khudobin, Houston
x-Michal Neuvirth, Hershey
Alexander Salak, Rochester
Defensemen
John Carlson, Hershey
Jonas Junland, Peoria
Bobby Sanguinetti, Hartford
Sean Sullivan, San Antonio
x-Ivan Vishnevskiy, Texas
Viatcheslav Voynov, Manchester
x-Mike Weber, Portland
Andy Wozniewski, Providence
Forwards
x-Keith Aucoin, Hershey
x-Brandon Bochenski, Norfolk
Mark Cullen, Rockford
Lars Eller, Peoria
Dan Fritsche, Syracuse
x-Nathan Gerbe, Portland
Christian Hanson, Toronto
Mikko Lehtonen, Providence
Graham Mink, Rochester ("C")
Patrick Rissmiller, Grand Rapids
Sergei Shirokov, Manitoba
Jack Skille, Rockford
Brett Sterling, Chicago
x-starters
I can’t believe I’m doing this but here goes again.
the information you provided proved the contrary: that with an abundance of NHL ready talent in the AHL alone, there is more than adequate NHL ready talent available to field two more competitive NHL teams.
I have provided no evidence about the AHL other than attendance figures which support my claim that paying customers want to see high end talent. You have presented evidence about the AHL. You keep posting your opinion on the matter even after stating that you are not an expert. If you’re not an expert than you cannot offer up your opinion as fact. You do understand what “expert testimony” is and is not don’t you? If you are the lawyer you claim to be you should be able to understand the difference. To claim that you are not an expert and then hold your opinion up as fact is not a logical argument.
You now agree there is an abundance of NHL ready talent, at minimum in the mid-level to lower level, to be found in the AHL. The expansion draft allows for the transfer of players from existing NHL teams to the new two teams.
Yes, there are more mid to low level NHL players than there are spots for them. Two things here. 1) Transferring players in an expansion draft doesn’t create new players, it is a zero sum game. The expansion adds spots but doesn’t create players. 2) My contention from the start has been the lack of top end talent. It’s why I asked the questions about Phoenix, Columbus, Nashville and Florida’s roster. Creating spots for mid to low level talent does not create the top end talent that is needed for teams to compete in the NHL.
The UFA market has sufficient upper level talent that the expansion teams could sign first line players. The NHL entry draft in the top eight provides players with potential star quality. High quality players are available via trade due to salary cap concerns. The KHL also provides a ready market for players with high talent. The NCAA also now has unsigned players with high talent levels.
Name the top end UFAs. I’ve asked you to do this a couple of time and at best you’ve provided a link to a list of all UFAs. Name these top end UFAs. There are not many left. Also, please remember that every player added to the new teams is a player taken from an existing team. Again, we’re not creating players we’re simply redistributing existing talent. As I mentioned above if people aren’t clamoring to expand the playoffs it would seem that the fans agree that teams that finish from 9 to 15 in the league aren’t true competitors for the Stanley Cup. Also, please remember it is very common in hockey for most if not all teams to qualify for the playoffs.
As for the KHL and NCAA, name these players. Most NCAA players of talent are already property of an existing team. There are very few NCAA free agents of note. Also, who from the KHL is a top end talent? Jagr? He’s old and over the hill. Radulov? He’s still property of Nashville. Who are these KHL and NCAA players? Name them then defend their merits.
As for the draft, that’s potential only and not guaranteed talent. Again, as with other facets that’s simply a redistribution, not a creation of new talent.
Anybody who spent much time watching the AHL alone would conclude that within the AHL are a remarkable number of highly skilled, highly talented high level hockey players. When one adds the expansion draft, UFAs, trades, the entry draft, the KHL talent pool, the talent pool from the European leagues, and the unsigned talent from the NCAA, the conclusion is simply inarguable. There is more than sufficient talent to field two highly competitive expansion teams.
Again, your first line is implying that you are an expert on the AHL when in fact you have stated you are not an expert on the AHL. If your first line is so accurate find that in an article and link the article. I’ve asked for this many times and you’ve yet to provide it. If experts believe this to be true then back it up with some expert testimony. If not, drop it. Just simply make your prima facie case. You do know what prima facie means don’t you? You do understand as you are the person pushing for a change it is up to you to first make your prima facie case? If you’re a lawyer this shouldn’t be a foreign concept.
As I noted above, the expansion draft doesn’t create players, it re-assigns them. It’s simply a dillution of the talent pool, not added depth. UFAs, trades, and the draft are the same. It’s all the same pie Doug and now we’re slicing it thinner. As for the KHL and euro leagues please name me some players that can come over. Just find an article about it and post the link. Again, not hard. I bet you’ve got a google box in your browser. Spend a few minutes and do a google search.
As for your list of all-stars, what conclusions are you drawing from that? A list is not an argument. Every league has an all-star team. My c-league has an all-star team that I’ve been on. Does this make me an NHL talent? You’ve got Ketih Aucoin on that list, are you holding him up as the height of talent by noting he’s a starter? You do understand that Keith Aucoin can’t get full time work in the NHL because his skill level isn’t good enough. If you’re saying Keith Aucoin is more talented than most of the people on the list, then you’ve made the case that these players are not NHL ready as we know for a fact that Keith Aucoin is not an NHL talent. That said, I’m only guessing what you’re doing as you’ve only posted a list and not made formulated an argument.
You’ve claimed you’re a lawyer, but you don’t seem to grasp simple legal terms like “prima facie case”, “expert testimony”, “plaintiff”, or “burden of proof”. You do understand that in a civil matter the plaintiff has the burden of proof and must put on a prima facie case and that if the plaintiff fails to do so the defendant can have the case dismissed without presenting any defense? You also understand that in a criminal case the state must provide a similar prima facie case and if they fail to do so the defendant can motion to have all charges dropped without presenting a defense? You are pushing for a change. You are the plaintiff in this matter. You have the burden of proof on you. Just make your case. Stop responding to me. Make your case. Don’t just stop with the lists, draw conclusions from the data that are logical. Quote experts. This is simple stuff that a Lawyer, something you claim to be, should understand.
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by C-Leaguer on Aug 30, 2010 8:26 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Your Assertions about Attendance are an Apples to Oranges Comparison
The point remains you have tried to justify or rationalize an indefensible argument which you made by trying to compare attendance at AHL games with NHL games. The position is beyond arcane. The NHL ready talent at the AHL alone is beyond dispute. Let’s take the Hurricanes AHL team. From the Checkers this year, one could construct a third line for the NHL as follows:
Dwyer/Matsumoto/Bowman or Osala
One could construct a fourth line as follows:
Samson/Dodge/Terry or J. Staal
Are you really suggesting or arguing that these two lines would be inferior lines?
Adding former Hurricanes who are unsigned Veterans would add to the third or fourth line. Scott Walker is more than capable of third line and fourth line duty. Yelle was awful for the Hurricanes, but surely he can still play 5 to 8 minutes a game as a center on the fourth line and be competitive.
If one team’s players who will have a difficult time cracking the Hurricanes roster at the start of the season can make a credible third and fourth line, with the other AHL teams alone, do you honestly say you have reviewed the AHL rosters and concluded there is insufficient talent alone to build a team? If so, please support your conclusion. You chose to articulate your conclusion. If you had any basis other than pure speculation and intuition, please be so kind as to detail that opinion.
As far as the unsigned UFAs go, from the unsigned players here are first second line, and third line forwards available:
The point remains you have tried to justify or rationalize an indefensible argument which you made by trying to compare attendance at AHL games with NHL games. The position is beyond arcane. It’s like trying to compare the attendance of the Durham Bulls to the New York Yankees as a basis for saying there are no talented baseball players on the Durham Bulls.
The NHL ready talent at the AHL alone is beyond dispute. Let’s take the Hurricanes AHL team. From the Checkers this year, one could construct a third line for the NHL as follows:
Dwyer/Matsumoto/Bowman or Osala
One could construct a fourth line as follows:
Samson/Dodge/Terry or J. Staal
Are you really suggesting or arguing that these two lines would be inferior lines for the third and fourth line?
Adding former Hurricanes who are unsigned Veterans would add to the third or fourth line. Scott Walker is more than capable of third line and fourth line duty. Yelle was awful for the Hurricanes, but surely he can still play 5 to 8 minutes a game as a center on the fourth line and be competitive.
If one team’s players who will have a difficult time cracking the Hurricanes roster at the start of the season can make a credible third and fourth line, with the other AHL teams alone, do you honestly say you have reviewed the AHL rosters and concluded there is insufficient talent alone to build a team? If so, please support your conclusion. You chose to articulate your conclusion. If you had any basis other than pure speculation and intuition, please be so kind as to detail that opinion. All I have read thus far is non-sequiturs and evasion. For example, I have asked a number of times, what AHL games did you watch other than the two games you attended when the Rats played the Norfolk Admirals. That question is simple. What is the answer.
Here are some unsigned UFAs this close to training camp.
Mike Comrie 29 EDM $1,125,000
Kyle Wellwood 27 VAN $1,200,000
Eric Belanger 32 WAS $1,750,000 (as a second line center)
Jeff Halpern 34 LA $2,000,000
Ruslan Fedotenko 31 PIT $1,800,000
Vyacheslav Kozlov 38 ATL $3,850,000
Owen Nolan 38 MIN $2,750,000
Scott Walker 36 WASH $2,500,000
Petr Sykora MIN $1,600,000
Evgeny Artyukhin 27 ANA $1,000,000
Richard Park 34 NYI $800,000
Marek Svatos 27 COL $2,350,000
Bill Guerin 39 PIT $2,000,000
Patrick O’Sullivan Phoenix — bought out
These are the UFAs not signed in 2010. In 2011, the UFAs available at the start of the signing period would be a far better group for comparison. It is absolutely not a zero sum game to take players from the AHL, from the UFAs, from Europe, from the NCAAs, and from the KHL.
As far as the unsigned UFAs go, from the unsigned players here are first second line, and third line forwards available:
Looks like you’re missing something here. Fill this in please.
Are you really suggesting or arguing that these two lines would be inferior lines for the third and fourth line?
Inferior to whom? You’re asking for a comparison, but providing nothing to compare those lines to.
As for these unsigned UFAs, have you yet looked at how many open spots are available on NHL Teams? I asked you to look at this previously and have yet heard back. We know the Canes have three spots, so from your list of available players to make a team you need to subtract three players for those spots. You’ll need to do a similar analysis for all teams to prove that there is more talent than there are spots. Again, please do some investigation and supply evidence. Stop giving your self described non-expert opinion. Again, not that hard. If you need me to I can teach you some excel and basic math to help.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Is there a reason you refuse to give the factual basis for your opinion? An expansion team, as seen with the exercise being performed gets to select unprotected players. The established teams then have to go to the draft, their AHL teams, the UFA crop, trades, the KHL, the NCAA, and the European leagues to complete their team roster.
Again, Adding teams doesn’t create players it simply redistributes them and slices the pie thinner.
These Euro players, and NCAA free agents, why are they not in the league now? If they are good enough to play in the NHL why aren’t they here? How will adding two teams change that? This is something you’ll need to address when you start bringing in Euro players. If they’re not here, what about two additional teams will bring them here. Many of the top Euro players stay in Europe because they want to stay close to family. Adding two new teams in the NHL won’t change that.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Here’s an analysis that you can do. Get a copy of NHL 2k10 or some other hockey games that assigns a player ranking. These rankings are generally on a 1 to 100 point scale. These rankings are likely the closest thing we can find to an unbiased expert ranking. Calculate the average player ranking for each team making sure to include at least 23 players for each team and probably 25 to 28 to handle mid-season injury call ups.
After you’ve done that create two teams out of what’s left. The newest games have all leagues, so you can make a two teams comprised of Euro players, AHLers, free agent NCAA players.
Lastly compare the average of the two teams you’ve created with the average of the #16 team in the NHL.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Here’s my suggestion:
In 2011 when AHL season starts, go watch 30 AHL games randomly. Then go read the results of the mock expansion draft. Then go to www.nhlnumbers.com and www.capgeek.com for 2011 UFAs. Then look at the 2011 draft reports from www.hockeysfuture.com.
Then consider possible trades. Once you do all that, then discuss your conclusion about the pool of talent. You could also do some research on unsigned NCAA players, similar to Riley Nash. After that go read about the KHL contracts and the European leagues. Then look at previous expansion drafts and the number of players who were protected. Those data points will give you an clearer idea of the overall talent pool available for the NHL expanding to two teams. You might also for reference look at the signings by Toronto from Europe and the NCAA.
Trades aren’t made for equal players when involving picks and prospects. They are made for potential, since as one star ages and declines a young one rises.
Also, some 1st line AHLers are good enough to play in the NHL—but not on a tough minutes checking line, which you’re trying to say that they are. The links I provided above show that young players need soft minutes. To get soft minutes you need to play on a scoring line. There aren’t enough scoring line spots open in the NHL.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
AD,
As you have pointed out, there are plenty of 3rd & 4th line players that are in the AHL; probably even a few 2nd liners. But where the talent pool is diluted is the top line players. I know many here have their favorite players, but in all honesty the Canes really only have 1 top line forward, 1 to 2 top pairing defenseman, and a true starting goalie. You could fill 2 more NHL teams with average talent, but the product wouldn’t be better.
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PackPride you must be foolish, you see because Doug, even though he isn’t an expert, knows so much about the pool of available talent by watching the same Albany games over and over again. Plus he probably has some source in the NCAA, the KHL, and the Euro leagues because he’s aware of all this top flight talent outside of the US that hasn’t come over yet but for some reason will once there are two new teams. Yep, Good ole Doug, sure has his ear to the ground. God bless him for all he does for us.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
by C-Leaguer on Aug 30, 2010 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Top Line Talent for an Expansion Team
Expansion Teams would likely have to use a combination of (1) UFA signings (such as were available at the start of 2010), (2) trades; (3) raiding the AHL talent pool, (4) entry draft – such as a top five pick, (5) KHL re-resigning, and (6) NCAA unsigned players – such as Billy Sweatt.
The question is really basic: can the NHL expand to two more teams and have two competitive teams? My plan to test the theory that yes there is such talent is to wait until the SBNation finishes its rosters of protected and unprotected players and then participate in a draft to create a team. I think for example that freed of the albatross of some bad contracts for under-producing veterans, the two new teams might well be competitive ahead of teams like the NY Islanders or Florida, just to use two examples.
It’s really a question of whether some young talent (think Mueller, Boychuk, Dalpe, Skinner, Nash, Tlusty, Frolov, Wolski, Brunnstrom, Bowman as examples) could rise to the top by necessity. Also, given the reward for tremendous failure (think Chicago and Pittsburgh) the expansion teams would quickly be filled with major talent. Trades, too, cannot be overlooked (think of the Kessel trade and the effort to trade Savard).
As far as the Hurricanes go, I am not afraid that Boychuk, Dalpe, Nash, Tlusty, Bowman, Skinner, or Osala will fail to prove themselves worthy of being quite talented NHL players. Interestingly, the other AHL teams had their fair share of quite talented players. When the top talents for the Rats matched up the top talent from the AHL teams, they all acquitted themselves quite well; and not surprisingly they also did quite well in their various stints with their NHL teams. What I saw play itself out was that for many NHL teams they had to clear out their deadwood, the way the Hurricanes had to clear theirs, to make room on the roster for younger players who were superior to the veterans they replaced.
Also, I challenge C-Leaguer to do the same. Given his knowledge of the AHL and the NHL, once the protected players roster is released, he ought to do his best to pick two NHL expansion teams. As the fantasy GM of two expansion teams, does he have the hockey mind and creativity to field two competitive teams?
If there is so much talent in the NHL, we could in theory combine any 2 teams and have an elite team. So let say we combine the Canes and the Panthers. If you took the best players from both of those teams and made 1 team, would they be an elite team?
While there is talent in the AHL, the thing that is weak is top talent in both the NHL and AHL. And without top talent, the product suffers.
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by PackPride17 on Aug 31, 2010 8:32 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
It’s fairly simple witness evasion when asked about the basis for their opinion to say, well what is the basis for your opinion and they take the position no amount of proof is sufficient. Let’s go to your position and give us the basis for it. You assert that there is insufficient talent in the NHL in the form of UFAs, at the AHL, at the KHL, in Europe, in the entry draft, and in the NCAA to field two competitive NHL teams. Despite the tremendous weight of evidence to the contrary, you make comparisons such as the attendance at AHL games. Seriously, do you contend the Durham Bull attendance should be compared to the NY Yankees attendance as a measuring stick for the talent on the Durham Bulls?
Let's Analyze the Flaws in Your Argument
1. The UFA list of presently unsigned UFAs on August 30th to determine what UFAs will be available to an expansion team.
Please be so kind as to explain why the Expansion teams would be held back from signing 2011 UFAs at the same time as other teams? Isn’t that on its face as flawed an argument as one can imagine? You can go to www.capgeek.com and www.nhlnumbers.com to see the 2011 UFAs. That talent pool is the fair assessment rather than the picked over list – which still has some top level talent.
2. AHL attendance compared to NHL attendance:
Nobody can take that comparison seriously. What relevance does that have to say attendance at Winnipeg or Quebec?
3. The total fund of knowledge about the AHL:
Isn’t it pretty basic that one has to have some reasonable familiarity with the AHL to state the opinion that the AHL is populated by players who can’t make NHL teams? What is your estimate of the AHL games you watched? Which teams? You surely know the range of AHL games you watched, and it would be helpful in assessing the basis for your opinion to have that information.
4. AHL All-Stars: the 2010 AHL Canadian and Planet USA teams are demonstrative of the talent waiting for their chance to play in the NHL. Citing Aucoin as the rule rather than the exception is highly misleading. Rodney and Peters are far better examples and closer to the norm of the All-stars.
3. The total fund of knowledge about the AHL:
Isn’t it pretty basic that one has to have some reasonable familiarity with the AHL to state the opinion that the AHL is populated by players who can’t make NHL teams? What is your estimate of the AHL games you watched? Which teams? You surely know the range of AHL games you watched, and it would be helpful in assessing the basis for your opinion to have that information
It is, but you’ve said you’re not an expert thereby discrediting your opinion. I’ve made no comments about the AHL other than attendance. It is you that keeps make comments about the state of talent in the AHL even though you aren’t an expert. I’ve only asked for articles to support your non-expert claim which you’ve failed to provide.
Again, define Prima Facie case and burden of proof.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Prima Facie Case
prima facie
: (pry-mah fay-shah) adj. Latin for “at first look,” or “on its face,” referring to a lawsuit or criminal prosecution in which the evidence before trial is sufficient to prove the case unless there is substantial contradictory evidence presented at trial. A prima facie case presented to a Grand Jury by the prosecution will result in an indictment. Example: in a charge of bad check writing, evidence of a half dozen checks written on a non-existent bank account makes it a prima facie case. However, proof that the bank had misprinted the account number on the checks might disprove the prosecution’s apparent “open and shut” case.
burden of proof
n. the requirement that the plaintiff (the party bringing a civil lawsuit) show by a “preponderance of evidence” or “weight of evidence” that all the facts necessary to win a judgment are presented and are probably true. In a criminal trial the burden of proof required of the prosecutor is to prove the guilt of the accused “beyond a reasonable doubt,” a much more difficult task. Unless there is a complete failure to present substantial evidence of a vital fact (usually called an “element of the cause of action”), the ultimate decision as to whether the plaintiff has met his/her burden of proof rests with the jury or the judge if there is no jury. However, the burden of proof is not always on the plaintiff. In some issues it may shift to the defendant if he/she raises a factual issue in defense, such as a claim that he/she was not the registered owner of the car that hit the plaintiff, so the defendant has the burden to prove that defense. If at the close of the plaintiff’s presentation he/she has not produced any evidence on a necessary fact (e.g. any evidence of damage) then the case may be dismissed without the defendant having to put on any evidence.
See also: beyond a reasonable doubt preponderance of the evidence prima facie weight of evidence
You’re a lawyer and you had to post another persons words? You’re not even an expert on the field you claim to be an expert on.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
You are kidding right? You ask for references, I gave you references with the definition.
What is curious is that with so much information about the NHL you have so little information about the AHL. Yet, you premise part of your conclusion on the difference in attendance between the NHL and the AHL. Did it occur to you that some of the reason for the difference had to do with the geographic location of some of the teams? Is it fair to compare talent of two teams selected by a combination of UFA signings, expansion draft, entry draft, trades, NCAA signings, AHL signings or trades or expansion draft, European signings, KHL signings, to an AHL attendance statistic?
Is that you believe a fair and sincere comparison?
Absolutely I am not an expert on the AHL, despite having watched well over 120 AHL games and some of them multiple times. What I can tell is whether a player seems to be highly skilled – such as McBain, Boychuk, Dalpe, Carson, and Bowman.
What was clear to me from watching those games, as a non-expert, was that virtually every AHL team had somewhere between 4 and 8 NHL ready players. I confirmed my conclusion by watching various AHL players perform in the NHL. It was clear even to my untrained eyes that those players were fully ready for NHL competition. I then reviewed the teams and saw much the same as I saw at Carolina, where A. Ward, Wallin, Alberts, Yelle, and Walker needed to be unloaded to create roster spots for more talented players. Contract issues and the salary cap were more the issue than the lack of talent in keeping some players in the AHL.
Accordingly, it was clear to me that your assessment that the AHL was populated by players who were not NHL impact players could only be the result of inadequate time watching the games. I read enough of your posts to realize you knew too much about hockey to watch a ton of various AHL games and not realize the talent pool there was impressive. In short, I feel you jumped to your conclusion and then steadfastly refused to budge.
You’re claiming you’re not an expert but holding your opinion up as that of an expert. That is not a logical argument.
It was clear even to my untrained eyes that those players were fully ready for NHL competition.
That is for an expert to decide, not you.
Are you employing the Chewbacca defense?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhvAs5GsMPw
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
What I can tell is whether a player seems to be highly skilled – such as McBain, Boychuk, Dalpe, Carson, and Bowman.
Skill does not mean you can make the NHL. Time in the AHL helps young players develop more strength and just getting used to playing men older than themselves. Getting them to make decisions faster and improve their hockey IQ. And so on.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, and for many players, once they develop to the point they are ready for the NHL, they have to have the patience to wait for a roster spot to open. Jack Skille with Chicago is an example. Some players take longer than others to mature and often all they need is the chance at a top scoring line. Your point about top six “soft” minutes validates the point I am making. There are more than enough talented NHL ready players as UFAs, in the AHL, in the NCAA, in the entry draft, in an expansion draft, in European leagues, and in the KHL to field two more competitive NHL teams. The question is not whether on the present 30 NHL teams there are talented hockey players.
It’s a simple premise and if it were not true, one wouldn’t have to go to the series of irrelevant comparison such as total attendance to disprove the premise. There is also the somewhat comical assertion that one can assess the talent of the best players in the AHL without watching them play.
Then there is the somewhat bizarre statement that to judge whether talent is available for two more teams, the expansion teams have to wait until all other teams sign UFAs before they can enter the UFA market to field their team.
All of those statements were presented as somehow proving there was a sufficient pool of talent available than if the NHL were to expand to 32 teams, the two new teams would be competitive. Do you really think the Islanders would lay waste to the new teams? What about Edmonton? What about Florida? What about Toronto? Even if the expansion teams started out needing more talent, like Chicago and Pittsburgh, with excellent draft positions, they would soon become highly competitive.
Yes, and for many players, once they develop to the point they are ready for the NHL, they have to have the patience to wait for a roster spot to open. Jack Skille with Chicago is an example.
How long did Skille have to wait? Not that long. If you mean like 20 games, I have no argument. People aren’t getting stuck in the minors for a full season when they’re clearly a better option, though. Sometimes teams want their young players to play big minutes in the minors rather than small minutes in the big leagues (like Alzner as a Hershey top pair rather than NHL 3rd pair).
Some players take longer than others to mature and often all they need is the chance at a top scoring line. Your point about top six "soft" minutes validates the point I am making. There are more than enough talented NHL ready players as UFAs, in the AHL, in the NCAA, in the entry draft, in an expansion draft, in European leagues, and in the KHL to field two more competitive NHL teams.
I don’t see how what I said validates what you said. The guys playing on scoring lines are the best in the league. You and I both know that if you’re good enough to play on an NHL scoring line, your team is going to bring you up and dump a low minutes grinder or extra forward. Fact is, most of those guys aren’t right away. You’re going to see Taylor Hall struggle mightily, I bet.
The question is not whether on the present 30 NHL teams there are talented hockey players.
That’s what it’s been made into here. I think you originally said that young players were getting stuck in the minors since overpaid veterans were taking spots in the NHL. Well, you have to have a good farm system with a constant influx of ELC talent, and if you dilute the pool, that’s bad news. If you dilute the FA pool, that’s bad news too. Teams will sign more free agents soon—they’re probably working on trades right now to get under the cap, and if they can’t work it out, they’ll just dump a guy in the minors and sign a cheap FA, like Turco.
It’s a simple premise and if it were not true, one wouldn’t have to go to the series of irrelevant comparison such as total attendance to disprove the premise.
You said there’s a lot of talent in the AHL. That talent couldn’t draw big enough crowds to compete with NHL teams, save the worst NHL market vs the absolute class of AHL hockey markets.
There is also the somewhat comical assertion that one can assess the talent of the best players in the AHL without watching them play.
We’ve all seen them play. The great thing about SBN is that you can talk to so many people. I’ve discussed at length prospects—often in the AHL—of the Rangers, Penguins, Capitals, Stars, Kings, and other teams. Maybe none of us have seen 150 AHL games, but it’s not like we haven’t seen any at all, either. I’ve seen about 20, and everything I hear second hand is verified with numbers and my eyes when I watch. Hockey is all about results.
Then there is the somewhat bizarre statement that to judge whether talent is available for two more teams, the expansion teams have to wait until all other teams sign UFAs before they can enter the UFA market to field their team.
Think about it. Teams lose players. They sign others to replace those guys. They sign guys as depth, as injury insurance, as veteran mentors, as leaders. You’re just diluting the talent pool, disrupting the flow.
All of those statements were presented as somehow proving there was a sufficient pool of talent available than if the NHL were to expand to 32 teams, the two new teams would be competitive. Do you really think the Islanders would lay waste to the new teams? What about Edmonton? What about Florida? What about Toronto?
Yes, yes, yes, and yes. There is zero top end talent at FA (Kovy seems to be as good as signed, as reports say the NHL is going to approve his new deal). You can’t compete with 12 3rd liners and 6 third pairing guys anymore. This isn’t the trap era. Offense is based on creativity, speed, youth.
Even if the expansion teams started out needing more talent, like Chicago and Pittsburgh, with excellent draft positions, they would soon become highly competitive.
It’s a cycle. Some teams would start to suck.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
The issue was as stated: is there sufficient talent via UFAs, the AHL, the entry draft, an expansion draft, the NCAAs, European Leagues, trades, and the KHL for two more NHL teams to be added and to be competitive. The UFA class is the class at the start of the signing period not the end.
It is unfathomable that anybody would seriously contend they can tell the quality of the AHL’s better players and not have to watch them in act at the AHL.
As you point out, yes, it is a cycle and under the NHL draft rules the fastest path to greatness is to be genuinely awful and draft well – as occurred in Pittsburgh and Chicago. Savard is available via trade. He is a first line player. Frolov was available and similarly talented first line forwards are up in 2011. Kovalchuk was available. First line forwards and impact players continue to hit the UFA market. Whitney was a UFA.
I have seen the AHL talent enough even with my untrained eyes to tell there are some very, very high end talented players waiting for their shot in the NHL. I saw Boychuk, Dwyer, Bowman, and Tlusty out-perform Yelle, Walker, and Brind’Amour. That is one team only, of course; but it is indicative of the talent in the AHL. Added to the other sources for talent, the talent pool is deep enough to field two fine NHL teams. If you disagree, then please provide something more than the recitation of the attendance at AHL games, or the end of market players available as UFAs.
You keep citing your own eye test. There are hundreds of people who’d disagree with you based on their own eye tests. That’s why we find it hard to believe your one piece of evidence, and you’re hardly an NHL scout.
I’ve provided you with evidence that young skilled players struggle in the NHL when they are put in at 18, 19, 20. I bet the trend continues for older rookies (I guess CnB didn’t go into that because the 18 year old entries would be successful at 21 and skew the results, like Kane and Crosby).
Savard is available for trade. That’s for his contract and because they can afford to give Seguin easy minutes.
I also see a kind of circularity thing here. If so many AHLers are NHL worthy, and you’re citing fewer NHLers as AHL-worthy, then your definition is flawed. No team loads up on scoring line types. Not even Team Canada—Richards and Toews were skilled checking line players, for example.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Doug, I’ve provided you with an experiment to make your case. Just do it. If you can add two teams and maintain the average player rating then you can show clearly that the NHL can expand. If you can’t maintain the average with the two new teams you’re showing a dilution of talent. It’s not that hard.
Failing that, find an article written by someone who is paid to follow hockey that suggests expansion is good. Just find one and post a link. That’s all I’ve been asking for.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2010/08/is-it-time-for-the-nhl-to-consider-expansion.php
For crying out loud, here. Here’s an article discussing expansion.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
What is your basis for saying that the attendance at Winnipeg and Quebec should be judged by the attendance at Albany? You seriously can’t suggest that is a fair and logical comparison.
What is your basis for saying that the attendance at Winnipeg and Quebec should be judged by the attendance at Albany? You seriously can’t suggest that is a fair and logical comparison.
Never suggested that. I said only that attendance at the AHL was lower than attendance at the NHL. I concluded that this was due to talent difference between the AHL and the NHL.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
And that proves what? That is a red herring as far as supposedly disproving the position that there is enough talent from the various available sources to build two more competitive NHL teams.
If there is enough talent in the AHL, why don’t people go and see it?
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not taking sides here, but to compare NHL and AHL attendance figures when NHL arenas are generally much larger than AHL arenas is flawed.
Only if the AHL arenas are full is it flawed. If the AHL arenas are full then there is some unmet demand. If, however, the AHL arenas aren’t full then there is no unmet demand and we can use the attendance figures as a true test for desire to see games on that level.
For instance, the Hersey Bears had the highest attendance at 8,987. The capacity for there arena as per this site is 10,500. That means on average they are under capacity and all demand is being met.
The Mantioba arena seats 15,015 people as per the MTS Centre Wiki site.
I could go on, but I think the point is clear here. Arena size is not limiting attendance. As many people that want to go to AHL games do go to AHL games. The lower talent level isn’t the only reason, but it is a reason.
I could further this by looking at the capacity for the baseball arenas but I believe it would show the same results. People that want to go to minor league games go to minor league games. The venue is not the cause of the lower attendance.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
by C-Leaguer on Aug 31, 2010 7:02 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Further analysis of Attendance figures and Proof of fans desire to see top level talent
I created this spreadsheet.
It has attendance and capacities for each team in the AHL and NHL for last season as well as the sources for the data. As you will see in the AHL only one team averaged above 90% capacity and only three above 80% capacity. The average capacity of the league was 52.2% and the average crowd was 5,099.
In the NHL 19 teams averaged over 90% capacity and 23 were above 80% capacity. In addition the average NHL game drew 17,072 fans and the average arena was at 93 % capacity.
Things to take away from the analysis so far:
1) The AHL was sufficient capacity to accommodate additional demand for seats at any venue and as such the demand for the AHL is in line with the attendance numbers.
2) 7 NHL venues averaged a crowd of 100% capacity or higher. This means that there is some unmet demand and that the demand for hockey at the NHL is above the tickets purchased at least in some markets.
Now, someone brought up the question of market sizes being the difference. Currently there are two cities with both and NHL team and an AHL team; Toronto and Chicago. Toronto is highlighted in yellow and Chicago in red. As you can see the average attendance for the NHL games is significantly higher than the average attendance for AHL games in those cities. Furthermore, neither cities AHL team has an average capacity of over 50%. Compare this to the average NHL capacity of over 100%!
What does this mean? It means that in at least Chicago and Toronto fans prefer to go see NHL games as opposed to NHL games. I would postulate that the Chicago and Toronto markets are proxies for the North American hockey market in general and that if fans in those cities prefer to attend NHL games compared to AHL games that the NA hockey market prefers this as well.
Doug, if you can find a fault in this analysis I’d love to hear it. If need be I can further this by looking at the crowds for playoff teams as opposed to non-playoff teams over the last ten years to further illustrate the hockey fans desire to watch top end talent. For this I would be assuming that entry in the playoffs is a proxy for talent level of a team (i.e. the most talented team qualify for the playoffs). If you’ve got any input on that issue let me know and we can iron out the details.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
by C-Leaguer on Aug 31, 2010 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Doug, again you’ve come back to the board and evaded this post. Reply to it. Deny it if you want but you need to reply.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Let’s see, In 2010, I attended 37 hockey games at the RBC, and watched the remainder on TV. In addition to that I watched most Monday and Tuesday night games as well as numerous Chicago and Vancouver games on center ice. In addition to this I was in three fantasy hockey leagues keeping up with numerous players, their stats and their match ups. If I had to put a guess to the number of games I saw last season in person and on TV I would say it would be north of 164. In general I watch at least one non-Canes game for every canes game.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Already posted that above. Typically rats games and then Calder cup games on NHL network.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
And the number of AHL games you actually watched in 2010 was how many? Which games?
That’s weak sauce, dude.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Seriously, if one is going to make an assessment of the talent in the AHL, is there a better method you are aware than watching AHL games? You honestly think one can intuit the talent pool there? There is not a magic number to watch, but the more varied and the greater the number, the better the fund of knowledge. For example, do you truly believe a person should watch 7 New York Islander games and then make broad conclusions about the lack of talent in the NHL?
How is your assessment of AHL talent valid Doug? You claim you’re not an expert. You’ve said that twice. If mine is not valid then yours is not valid. You spend all this time arguing how well I know the AHL, when I’ve made no comments about the AHL other than general talent level, and you’re only undercutting yourself.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
You have made a broad and unsubstantiated, I think, statement about the general talent level of the AHL. In my view it was clear you rushed to judgment with too little time spent watching AHL games and too little time comparing how the top talent of the AHL fared when they were brought up to the NHL. In short, your opinion was long on being adamant and short on substance to back it up. Rather than conceding the lack of fund of knowledge was at least a matter to be considered when one assessed your position, you turned to non-relevant considerations such as the attendance at AHL games.
I’ve only asserted that the talent level in the NHL was higher than the talent level in the AHL. You are the one asserting about the talent of the AHL and you are also the one who claims to not be an expert on such things.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
by C-Leaguer on Aug 30, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
My Assessment of the AHL Talent
I completely agree with you that I am not an expert in the AHL. There are so many AHL teams that it would take watching many, many hundreds of games along with expertise in hockey for a person to be a true AHL expert. All I can assess is what I’ve seen from watching the AHL games through the prism of a fan with an untrained eye.
Some players like McBain, Boychuk, Carson, Sanguinetti, Tlusty, Bowman, Dalpe, and I think Osala, were so talented that it was obvious to me they were NHL ready.
I highly doubt Osala is NHL ready in the sense that he won’t have significant struggles. Again, talent doesn’t make you to the NHL on its own. He won’t transition like Bobby Ryan, with whom the Ducks did a great job, not rushing him at all.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
All you have to do is read Copper and Blue and Behind the Net on young players, and make some inferences.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, www.hockeysfuture.com provides very detailed assessments of the talent of some young prospects. Wouldn’t you want both to read those kinds of articles and then actually watch the players to see what you think after looking at them play?
Hockey’s Future isn’t the be-all-end-all of scouting. Why? It’s a website. It’s not Central Scouting.
I’ve seen prospects play in the WHL, OHL, and AHL, as well as the KHL and SEL, and of course the NHL, and I rate them differently. There are too many players to rate each one spot on, and in addition to that there is tons of uncertainty.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Do you think NHL teams would draft young prospects by reading the scouting reports and not watch video of the players?
NHL teams have to scout hundreds of players, I bet. And that doesn’t tell you who is NHL ready or not. NHL teams look for the guy that will be the best player available. It’s well known that defensemen and goalies struggle early in the NHL careers. They’re not NHL ready at an early age, in general. Forwards could use more development, but they can score.
There are always exceptions like Tyler Myers, but that’s just getting lucky. They thought he would be good, not this fast though.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I need to be more cohesive
My point is this:
You can tear up a lower league without tearing up the higher league. I think I mentioned that you can tear up juniors like Joel Broda and your drafting team can still let you go for free. Looking good or skill or success at a lower level doesn’t mean it will translate to the NHL. Often, young AHLers need to develop more strength, more defensive smarts, better skating, better and more confident puck handling, and simply compete harder. Playing against guys your own age is different from stronger and older AHLers, which is different from even stronger, faster, and better NHLers.
If you want to make the NHL as a skilled player, you need to make a scoring line. Teams generally roll out two scoring lines, a checking line, and a hybrid line, I’d say. Young guys aren’t going to make those last two—they struggle defensively, check out the Copper and Blue and BSB links on young NHLers—and you need serious skill to play on a scoring line, usually.
You said overpaid veterans pushed out younger players. Can you give me examples? I bet in most instances the veteran is actually better than the kid.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Scott Walker 2009-2010 rather than Boychuk or Bowman. Until Walker was traded or hurt, there was no roster space. In that example, do you rate Walker in 2009-2010 a better player than either Boychuk or Bowman?
Boychuk was on the Roster with Walker, so Walker didn’t push out Boychuk. Bowman and Walker fill different roles. They aren’t competing for the same spot so I wouldn’t say that Walker pushed out Bowman. Cole might have, but Walker didn’t.
Also, where are the examples from other teams? You’ve said in previous posts you’re biased in favor of Canes prospects, but where are your examples from other franchises? Why don’t you woo us with some of that info.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Boychuk spent much of his time on the third and the fourth lines. Indeed, Walker did keep Boychuk and Bowman out of the lineup. Similarly, Yelle took up a wasted space for much of the year. Brind’Amour took up a roster space as well.
In the meantime, why don’t you explain why you feel your time spent watching AHL games gives you sufficient knowledge of the AHL to say that there is not enough talent there along with the other sources of talent – the expansion draft, UFAs, NCAA, European Leagues, the entry draft, and the KHL for two expansion teams to be competitive. Surely, you agree the attendance at the AHL games has zero to do with answering the real question.
Boychuk spent much of his time on the third and the fourth lines.
He’s a skill guy in a low minutes role. In NHL09, that makes your young player get worse. In real life, probably the same.
Also, you kind of have to realize that you’re talking about the Hurricanes, which will likely have one of the weakest teams—on paper, I will stress—in the league. And they haven’t made themselves more competitive with FA signings. Lots of teams are working on budgets too, economy in the state that it’s in. That’s made the FA market this year in particular not go so quickly.
Indeed, Walker did keep Boychuk and Bowman out of the lineup.
Those two aren’t fourth liners like Walker, I bet. Like C-Leaguer said, I think Cole is the one you’re after, and Cole is a good hockey player.
Similarly, Yelle took up a wasted space for much of the year.
Is faceoff specialist where Boychuk and others should play?
Brind’Amour took up a roster space as well.
He had a brutal season, but he was still a legit NHLer.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Boychuk spent much of his time on the third and the fourth lines.
He’s a skill guy in a low minutes role. In NHL09, that makes your young player get worse. In real life, probably the same.
Also, you kind of have to realize that you’re talking about the Hurricanes, which will likely have one of the weakest teams—on paper, I will stress—in the league. And they haven’t made themselves more competitive with FA signings. Lots of teams are working on budgets too, economy in the state that it’s in. That’s made the FA market this year in particular not go so quickly.
Indeed, Walker did keep Boychuk and Bowman out of the lineup.
Those two aren’t fourth liners like Walker, I bet. Like C-Leaguer said, I think Cole is the one you’re after, and Cole is a good hockey player.
Similarly, Yelle took up a wasted space for much of the year.
Is faceoff specialist where Boychuk and others should play?
Brind’Amour took up a roster space as well.
He had a brutal season, but he was still a legit NHLer.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
the Hurricanes, which will likely have one of the weakest teams—on paper, I will stress—in the league.
Let me clarify. There are a handful of elite teams and then a big clump. Some emerge from that clump with hot streaks like Ottawa, some fall with bad luck like Edmonton (checked out their injuries? Wow). But on average Carolina should be in that clump.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I can’t imagine anybody suggesting at plus minus minus 29 Brind’Amour was a legit NHL player in 2009-2010. I also disagree totally that on paper the Hurricanes are a weak team. They have an extraordinary number of first round picks and a solid number of Olympian and World Championship players. From December 26, 2009 forward they were the second best team in the Eastern Conference.
Please give me some data to support your statements. I think they are wildly disconnected from planet earth.
I can’t imagine anybody suggesting at plus minus minus 29 Brind’Amour was a legit NHL player in 2009-2010.
Plus minus is tenuous at best. You should know that. Alex Ovechkin was 18 his second season. And he wasn’t even used in a shutdown type role-at all (though from what I understand Staal does that for CAR now).
I also disagree totally that on paper the Hurricanes are a weak team. They have an extraordinary number of first round picks
Youth is unproven, and did you follow the Copper and Blue and BSB links? Those guys sampled are the cream of the crop, by the way.
And keep in mind the spending. Rutherford expects it to be a tough season. I think perceptions are a little skewed when you have so much youth coming up. I’ve known it, trust me. I used to be excited about Osala as a prospect. I used to be excited about Marcus Johansson, about Mathieu Perreault. About Braden Holtby. But fact is, not every player succeeds.
and a solid number of Olympian and World Championship players.
We all know that a lot of would-be WCers are in the playoffs, and another large group decline invites to rest up, like Martin St. Louis.
As for the Olympics: Joni Pitkanen, Eric Staal, Jussi Jokinen, and who? Tim Gleason maybe? Hardly three people making Canada right there. Anyways, does that even prove anything?
From December 26, 2009 forward they were the second best team in the Eastern Conference.
That’s hardly a good sample size.
Again, I said on paper. Carolina has always been like that to me. They don’t have many names that jump off the page, but they exceed expectations frequently.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
You are kidding. December 26, 2009 through April is not a good sample size? You say Brind’Amour’s plus minus minus 29 is not indicative of poor play?
You say on paper the Hurricanes appear weak when in fact on paper they can field a very impressive resume of players. First round picks available: Staal, Ruutu, Sutter, Boychuk, Nash, Tlusty, Gleason, Pitkanen, Sanguinetti, Babchuk; second round picks, Dalpe, McBain, Peters.
Jokinen 30 goals
And what other teams do you see with vastly more first round and second round picks on their roster?
Doug, just because a player is a first round pick does not make then a guaranteed NHL player. Take a look at this link to a TSN piece put together by Scott Cullen. From 1995 through 2004 the average for a player draft 6-10 was only 5.02. On the scale used for this study a 4 is a fringe NHLer, a 5 is a regular NHLer and a 6 is a top 9 forward. That means for ten years the average pick in that group of high draft picks was only and average NHLer, and not ever a top 9 player.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Draft position does not guarantee success. If it did then Alexandre Daigle would be wrapping up a hall of fame career.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
by C-Leaguer on Aug 30, 2010 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
The players you listed, my breakdown:
Staal—solid player. Nothing to be said here.
Ruutu—he’s 27. He’s not going to get any better offensively. 50 points, okay, that’s good not great.
Sutter—he looks good, probably could have used a bit more time in the AHL to get around a 70 point pace. He may take a bit longer to develop as a result. Anyways, best to be cautious. He almost falls within that CnB analysis range.
Boychuk—he put up “okay” numbers. He’s not NHL ready, I don’t think. At least, not in a role with scoring pressure. He’s also 20 and could very well struggle a bit. It is just his second pro season.
Nash—people just don’t make the jump from NCAA to NHL. Correct me if I’m wrong, that flat-out doesn’t happen, unless you’re a total stud, and even then only Jarome Iginla might have done it as far as I can remember.
Tlusty—very much an unknown. He hadn’t been able to translate AHL play into NHL play in Toronto—can he now? He hasn’t had much of a sample.
Gleason—see Pitkanen
Pitkanen—is he better than Zdeno Chara because he was drafted in the first round and Chara was drafted in the 8th or something? Draft position is completely irrelevant once you get past around a year after the draft. Pitkanen is 26, you should be able to prove to me that he’s good with numbers (not that you need to; I know he’s good, but there are around 15D better, I feel).
Jokinen—The last guy that suddenly broke out at a relatively old age was Jason Blake. Would you like him on your team now? Jokinen is as unproven as the rookies, except in shootouts. Guys don’t break out offensively at age 27. I mean, there’s a reason he was available on waivers. We’ll see, but it’s best to be skeptical. Need I remind you of Jonathan Cheechoo?
Sanguinetti—BSB people weren’t too high on him, and I trust their opinion more than yours. Something was wrong, so it’s best to be cautious.
Babchuk—not a great guy to show me. He’s in his prime and hasn’t been able to do much. Doesn’t look like he improved much in the KHL, either.
Dalpe—you’ve got to be kidding. See Nash.
McBain—nothing much here. I think he’s the real deal. He got “overcooked” in the minors a bit because you bring up a player a little late rather than a little early. It’s the Detroit/Nashville method of developing defensemen.
Peters—goalies are notoriously unpredictable. And this doesn’t really matter, does it? Everyone knows Ward has the starting job locked up. Peters may end up like Cory Schneider, doomed to play out his RFA years behind a starter, possibly as the AHL starter for max ice time (Schneider behind Luongo).
And what other teams do you see with vastly more first round and second round picks on their roster?
This doesn’t say anything. So just because Detroit has like three first rounders (Kronwall, Stuart (not their own), Howard), Carolina is suddenly better? Come on, you know better than that.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
My point is that
Young players are unpredictable. Veterans are not. The Hurricanes have a very unpredictable roster. Most young players struggle early in their NHL careers. The Hurricanes are trying to ice a lot of players early in their NHL careers. Sounds like flirting with disaster to me.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
All you did was to say, It’s a fluke, or they are young, or dismiss statistics. That isn’t using rational discussion. You might was well say, you took out your tarot cards and they told you the Canes were not very good. It’s about as logical.
So provide some stats to rebutt him. Evidence shouldn’t be a foreign concept to someone who claims to be an attorney.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
You both seem to be becoming less and less connected to reality. Ruutu put up those numbers despite significant injuries, missing time with suspension and an injured shoulder. Get serious. You really cannot be serious.
McBain: all you say is yes he’s good.
Boychuk: check back to the 10 penalties drawn, 1 penalty in minimal minutes; and his performance when paired with Sutter and Bowman. Look at the videos of his goals and assists. Go listen to the guys at NHLHomeIce rave on about him. Give me a break.
Tlusty was injured for a part of his time with the Hurricanes. His play for the Canes, albeit brief, and the Rats albeit brief, showed he is NHL ready.
Babchuk: all you say is, well those 16 goals are a fluke. That’s not reasoning, it is simply dismissing facts that disprove a flawed conclusion you apparently have reached. The facts are he scored 16 goals.
Gleason and Pitkanen – who are the other 15 dmen you assert are better than them and on what basis. It’s all a conclusion founded on air.
Dalpe/Nash: oh yes, they are young. Is that an analysis of their ability? Not hardly.
Jokinen: 30 goals are a fact; the NHL’s leading shooutout scorer is a fact. You call it a fluke which is pure supposition without foundation.
Peters: also you say he is young. His performance is fact.
Babchuk: all you say is, well those 16 goals are a fluke. That’s not reasoning, it is simply dismissing facts that disprove a flawed conclusion you apparently have reached. The facts are he scored 16 goals.
Until he reproduces this feat it is a fluke.
Jokinen: 30 goals are a fact; the NHL’s leading shooutout scorer is a fact. You call it a fluke which is pure supposition without foundation.
It’s less supposition to think a player who hits 30 for the first time in his career will continue that pace. Again, look at the stats for other players. The Jason Blake example is a good one. Players who hit the thirty goal mark late in their careers tend to not reproduce it.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
He’s 27 which is old for hitting 30 goals for the first time. And yes, the Jason Blake analogy is a valid one as he was the last player to break out later in his career and become a goal scorer.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Please do show me some statistics to show how you conclude 27 is old to reach 30 goals for the first time; particularly for a player stuck on a bad team on a third line getting little minutes. If true you should be able to give examples. The truth is Jokinen was given minutes on a top, talented lines and scored 30 goals as a result.
Please do show me some statistics
I linked on this page shooting percentage and goals/gm vs age from behind the net. Read my links, please. It saves me lots of trouble.
Also, C-Leaguer, I think I like you.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, and if Ruutu scores 30 goals that is a fluke until he reproduces year after year, according to you, or Staal, or Jokinen. It’s self defining, they will not be good because you say they will not be good and if they are good, it is a fluke and they just got lucky and 27 is old and big is small and it’s life through the looking glass from Alice in Wonderland for you guys. Hot is cold. Little is big. Good is bad.
It shows inconsistency. How can you possibly not see this?
If you’re so certain Jussi will score 30 goals next season and that Babchuk will match his 16, let’s bet on it. Name the terms. If they both do, you win. If they both don’t I win. Any terms you want. Any at all. Just name them.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Inconsistency by Ruutu – yes he has a very, very hard time scoring when he is out of the game, watching from the press box because he is hurt. Brilliant observation.
Clearly we’re both relying on eyes, so this will be my final comment. We’re not getting anywhere.
I recommend you start reading Behind the Net and the Copper and Blue, by the way.
Ruutu put up those numbers despite significant injuries, missing time with suspension and an injured shoulder. Get serious. You really cannot be serious.
He has two good seasons. In 2008-2009 he had 54 points in more than 70 games played. That’s good, not great. You know what great is? 70 points. It’s semantics, no need to get hung up over it.
Boychuk: check back to the 10 penalties drawn, 1 penalty in minimal minutes;
So? Small sample. He isn’t Dustin Brown.
and his performance when paired with Sutter and Bowman.
Young line. Just asking for heartache. Did you follow the Copper and Blue link above yet? The one to young forwards? Small sample, anyway. Over a full season Mike Green had a GAON/60 while shorthanded of 2.5. Yeah, so even an entire season can be small sample.
Look at the videos of his goals and assists.
If skill and flashiness is what we rate a player by, then Zach Parise really sucks and Alexander Semin is the best player in the world.
Go listen to the guys at NHLHomeIce rave on about him.
Boychuk is part of the Hurricanes youth movement. Drafted because of his speed and creativity with the puck, the 20-year-old has shown the typical struggles of an offensively-minded forward in his first full season of professional play, particularly away from the puck. Having already had a taste of NHL play, expect the forward to compete for full-time duties starting in 2010-11. He’s not far away from contributing.
Per Hockey’s Future. They’re saying he has good upside but he may not be a superstar right away.
Tlusty was injured for a part of his time with the Hurricanes. His play for the Canes, albeit brief, and the Rats albeit brief, showed he is NHL ready.
I want you to show me the stats. I’m not convinced. Toronto’s recent GMs have been big on prospects—why did Tlusty get away easily?
Babchuk: all you say is, well those 16 goals are a fluke. That’s not reasoning, it is simply dismissing facts that disprove a flawed conclusion you apparently have reached. The facts are he scored 16 goals.
16 goals is not a lot, unless we’re talking league-worst offense here. Sustainability is the trademark of a true player.
Gleason and Pitkanen – who are the other 15 dmen you assert are better than them and on what basis. It’s all a conclusion founded on air.
I’m saying they’re not elite. The amount of good NHL D may surprise you. Chara, Markov, Phillips (criminally underrated), Green, Pronger, Timonen (criminally underrated), Weber, Suter, Lidstrom, Rafalski, Ehrhoff, Doughty, Keith, Seabrook, Robidas (borderline), Boyle, Vlasic (borderline), Wideman (borderline), Enstrom (borderline), and so on.
Dalpe/Nash: oh yes, they are young. Is that an analysis of their ability? Not hardly.
RIGHT NOW, AT THEIR CURRENT AGE, the reasonable expectation is “growing pains.” They won’t score 70 points. The transition from NCAA to NHL is tough. Just look at James vanRiemsdyk. He struggled so much.
Jokinen: 30 goals are a fact; the NHL’s leading shooutout scorer is a fact. You call it a fluke which is pure supposition without foundation.
Look at his career stats. No sustainability. You want a good shootout guy, Slava Kozlov, Viktor Kozlov, Pavel Datsyuk. Need I mention Cheechoo again? Fluke seasons happen frequently.
Peters: also you say he is young. His performance is fact.
He can’t perform if he’s behind Ward. I think I linked to the CnB draft position article too—did you see how unpredictable goalies were? It’s a bad bet to try and draft them early. While D may be 40% in the first two rounds, goalies are like 20%.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions
So if you are so dismissive of the Hurricanes then why would you not apply the same standards to the other teams I mentioned to do your comparisons. Again, all you say essentially is, it’s a fluke, or they are young. That’s not any form of reasoning. It is defining away any analysis by using your conclusion and trying to mine anything you can to support it.
The truth is all you both are saying is your intuition tells you that the Hurricanes will bad this year and you don’t really know why you feel that why, but that is how you feel. You are confusing intuitive thought with deductive thought. Your intuitions could be right; but they are based on air, not a deductive breakdown of relevant information.
Doug, I’m calling you out as someone who is unwilling to stand behind their convictions. If you believe that Babchuk will score 16 goals and Jussi will net 30 then lets put something on it. You name the terms. Let’s do it. You’re an attorney, I’m certain you can even draw up the contract.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Actually, the betting you suggest is called gambling by law. I can’t imagine drawing up a contract to gamble. What I think is that you have zero factual basis for your views; but you have every right on the planet to feel however you want to feel about any player. But to suggest you have proven there is a lack of talent to field two teams or that Jokinen is a bad player or Babchuk won’t score goals is total nonsense.
Citing things like comparing attendance at Albany versus the RBC is about as far out there as one can get. Citing the end of the UFA season as the top of talent available for expansion is silly. Then to say the Hurricanes team is truly amazing because it is the greatest collection of players having “fluke” great years ever in NHL history. The thing about Staal is that he is so lucky year after year and flukes himself around 30 goals or more each season. And the team flukes itself into a Stanley Cup, a Stanley Cup Final and Eastern Conference finals. They are the absolute luckiest team in the universe if one is to believe you.
Citing things like comparing attendance at Albany versus the RBC is about as far out there as one can get.
I contended that people had more desire to see top level talent. I backed this up by showing the attendance levels at a minor league compared to a major league. I furthered this by including baseball statistics to show that this wasn’t limited to hockey. I’m not sure how difficult this is to understand.
Citing the end of the UFA season as the top of talent available for expansion is silly.
All I’ve ever asked for is for you to make the team. That’s it. I’ve never said the end of the UFA season as the top of talent available. You said I said that, but I never said that. I’ve only asked you to make these two new teams. Again, just make the teams. It’s not that hard. Just do it.
Then to say the Hurricanes team is truly amazing because it is the greatest collection of players having "fluke" great years ever in NHL history.
Again, didn’t say that. Said that certain players were unproven as they have not repeated their career highs. Specifically I pointed to Jussi Jokinen and Anton Babchuk. Both have one and only one great statistical season on their record. Calling them unproven isn’t flawed, it’s actually accurate as they are unproven as consistent threats.
The thing about Staal is that he is so lucky year after year and flukes himself around 30 goals or more each season.
No one has said a bad thing about Staal. Red Line Army praised him and I haven’t talked about him.
And the team flukes itself into a Stanley Cup, a Stanley Cup Final and Eastern Conference finals.
Yes, they’ve done that but haven’t gone to the playoffs outside of that.
Look at the season point totals since 2001. You’ve got 91, 61, 76, 112, 88, 92, 97, 80. That’s an average of 87.125 points ( a total that is outside of the playoffs) and a standard deviation of 15.179 points (which is an 8 game swing one way or the other). So let’s see, the record swings 8 games (a little less than 1/10th of the season) from the average on any given year. Is that inconsistent and flukey? Yeah, I’d say it is.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
by C-Leaguer on Aug 30, 2010 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
So if you are so dismissive of the Hurricanes then why would you not apply the same standards to the other teams I mentioned to do your comparisons.
Boston, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, San Jose, and Detroit.
Boston: Tyler Seguin will not be asked to play a major role. Tuukka Rask may be a question mark, but his solid play—regardless of sample size—has extended over three seasons. You need four to basically be confident the guy is the real deal.
Philadelphia—the only unproven guy they’re icing is JVR
Pittsburgh—they’ll have a couple of D and a couple of forwards. Then again, they just rely on their three-headed monster down the middle. Whether the kids succeed or fail will not change the Pens’ result too much for the worse, if at all.
San Jose: Jason Demers needs to be a 4/5/6 defenseman. That’s it.
Detroit—their only youngsters are 3rd/4th line forwards, a 3rd pair D, and their starting goalie. The last could be an issue.
Carolina has about as many young players combined. I think you are missing my point completely if you can’t see that.
by red army line on Aug 31, 2010 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions
How so? Sounds like you’re taking offense that Carolina is icing more young, first/second year type players than other teams. Blame Rutherford, not me. Take a quick gander at their rosters. Really.
by red army line on Aug 31, 2010 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
The essence of your summary is that the Hurricanes are a young team. How insightful. I guess you think Chicago is an old, nearly ready to retire, team.
The essence of your summary is that the Hurricanes are a young team. How insightful.
Finally, you understand. I was banging my head against a wall here because I thought what I said was simple and intuitive.
I guess you think Chicago is an old, nearly ready to retire, team.
I’m not getting you. Skille is a wildcard but Toews, Kane, etc, all have at least three seasons. Anyone playing any sort of important position is a veteran.
by red army line on Aug 31, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Show me the statistics I dismissed. I’m the one linking to statistics, and the only one you’ve brought up is Rod Brind’Amour’s plus-minus rating. I just went through all their stats, ages, and salaries on capgeek.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Veterans are not unpredictable
“Veterans are not unpredictable” is the statement you make. That statement is patently untrue. Was it predictable that Aaron Ward would be awful in 2009-2010? Was it predictable that Brind’Amour would have a plus minus statistic of minus 29?
These words you chose seem to be more like the stream of consciousness poems of the 1960s than tied to even a thread of logic.
How many rookies or sophomores are there in a season? Maybe 45. How many veterans? Maybe 700. 2/700 is under 1%. Those are exceptions.
At any rate, a veteran will have proved that he is NHL-worthy with several seasons of good production. A rookie or sophomore hardly has a sample size to speak of. We don’t know where his true average is. Many struggle when other teams “figure them out.”
by red army line on Sep 1, 2010 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions
That’s a joke right? Your analysis is beyond strange. Either you are engaging in satire or you are hopelessly uninformed. Please provide a similar analysis for Boston, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, San Jose, and Detroit.
None of those teams have the number of young players that the Canes do. Players on those teams have proven what they can do by posting numbers year in and year out. Few players on the Canes have done that.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
by C-Leaguer on Aug 30, 2010 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Exactly. How many teams are going into the season with so much youth? Carolina, Edmonton, New York Islanders, Florida maybe, Colorado. I think that’s it. Real world-beaters there. Sure, you can have surprises like Colorado, but they weren’t any further ahead than that “clump” I mentioned above.
by red army line on Aug 30, 2010 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
“They are young” is supposed to explain away why highly talented young players were part of a team that from December 26, 2009, did better than almost all the NHL teams you say are much more seasoned and better than the Canes? If so, please use the same paradigm with the other teams I mentioned to show why they “on paper” are better. Pure nonsense on your part. Sort of inventing facts as you go along.
Curious but irrelevant. Now if you would be so kind as to use the same approach to evaluation on those other teams as you used for the Canes.
I just want to say
that whoever wins this debate i will follow on twitter, and not only that, but I will also totally ignore the other person, even if what they have to say is complete genius.
That said, carry on. This is really entertaining (well be swimming in new members because of this!!)
by SouthernHockeyNutter on Aug 30, 2010 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I did. You’re missing the point. The Hurricanes have a completely unpredictable team. That is the nature of youth. Edmonton and New York Islanders will fall in the same book to me.
You asked me to look at veteran-laden teams. Veterans are much more predictable. Their teams will be much more predictable. The only veteran-laden unpredictable teams are probably Ottawa and Buffalo, simply because Buffalo relies heavily on Miller and Ottawa has a raw goalie and can’t control Corsi to cover his back like Detroit and Chicago and Washington can (could).
by red army line on Aug 31, 2010 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Curious but irrelevant. Now if you would be so kind as to use the same approach to evaluation on those other teams as you used for the Canes.
The second chart is goals per 82 games. You see that it’s a smooth curve up from 18 to 25, then steady until 30, then kind of sharp drops. It’s not a sharp uptick like Jussi Jokinen had.
What I’m doing is I’m assuming that the Canes’ youngsters will adhere more or less to the averages. You’re saying that they’ll exceed the averages. Some will, some won’t. Regardless, they should be pretty close. How many players have broken out like Jokinen and sustained it? One comes to mind—Mike Knuble, and that’s because he suddenly started getting top line time with Joe Thornton and PP time.
Anyways, Jokinen went from 1.33 Pts/60 with middling competition and bad teammates to 2.31 pts/60 with even easier competition, but much stronger teammates. His power play time doubled. His 13.4% shooting at even strength is much much more than average and almost certainly unsustainable. His PDO was 102.9%, which is really really high—sustainable only for the league’s uber-elite goalies. He had strong on-ice shooting percentages with some of his most frequent linemates (link takes a while to load).
In short, I was underselling him, yes, but he still overachieved given his opportunities.
SouthernHockeyNutter: I’ll probably leave this “early.” I know ad populum isn’t a valid supporting argument but clearly since others understand and agree with what I’m saying (or at least understand my reasoning) then I don’t need to hang around for too long.
C-Leaguer, this link is for you, lost bad bets aside. Come around sometime. The Clips are where general hockey talk takes place.
(Just teasing, by the way. That could have gone either way. Two of the Caps basically didn’t improve)
/end shamelessly recruiting C-Leaguer
by red army line on Aug 31, 2010 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions
When your statistics disprove your grossly inaccurate dismissal of Jokinen you then pronounce Jokinen’s performance unsustainable. That approach could be used to dismiss Crosby or Ovechkin. Maybe it was just luck all these years and they won’t sustain.
I will dismiss Ovechkin’s 1.5 pts/gm season and his 65 goal season—tons of shots, career high shooting—and Crosby’s 51 goal season.
But you’re missing the point that Jokinen has one season. Jason Blake scored 40 goals in one season. Matt Stajan looked like a great player in one season. Jonathan Cheechoo looked like a top-tier goal scorer in one season (arguably two). Ovechkin and Crosby have looked great for five seasons. Unless you’re insinuating that Gretzky was also all luck.
There is zero comparison, man. The years plus the fact that Sid and AO thrive on being Corsi engines give them pretty sustainable output on the whole. You’re grasping at straws.
PDO strongly regresses to 100%. Elite players will go a bit higher, but maybe one percent if that. Jokinen was 3% higher. He’ll likely regress.
Shooting percentage is wildly variable from year to year, but the only guys you can count on for high shooting% are net crashers like Knuble/Holmstrom and Ilya Kovalchuk. At ES generally you see around 10% for forwards, I think, for the better ones. Jokinen is probably due for a regress, since he did in fact get good PP time. Now, if the Canes’ PP improves A LOT and Jokinen gets A LOT of PP time, then it could be feasible to replicate 30 goals. But betting on it is probably a losing proposition.
by red army line on Aug 31, 2010 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
When your statistics disprove your grossly inaccurate dismissal of Jokinen you then pronounce Jokinen’s performance unsustainable.
I pronounced his performance unsustainable right from the start. I didn’t literally, but it’s a sad day if you didn’t infer that.
by red army line on Aug 31, 2010 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Completely missed the link to these graphs earlier. This stuff is amazing. Wow! Thanks for sharing and thanks for doing this or to whoever did compile the data.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Gabriel Desjardins, Behind the Net. It’s all nice and SBN. Really interesting stuff over there.
by red army line on Aug 31, 2010 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for the heads up. I’ll have to include that on my list of sites to visit.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
The Copper and Blue is the Oilers’ site, but they run broader topics too. They ran a series on tough minutes forwards, for example, and Eric Staal made the cut (I think Bob had a story up on CC). Make sure to check out the links on the right side of behindthenet.ca, the Corsi and rate stat site by Desjardins (Hawerchuk). Good stuff there too, like Puck Prospectus, Irreverent Oilers’ fans (Time on ice scripts are a great tool), and Battle of Alberta.
Also, you may want to chime in on the SE’s top-10 forwards, if you can. Staal’s at #4 behind Stamkos, Backstrom, and Ovechkin. I said Staal should be #3.
by red army line on Aug 31, 2010 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Draft position does not guarantee success. If it did then Alexandre Daigle would be wrapping up a hall of fame career.
What, you mean that he isnt?
it always burns within
the downward spiral never ends
when driven into sin
your salvation's found in a sinner's deed
by Douchebag St John on Aug 31, 2010 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Alexandre Daigle (born February 7, 1975 in Laval, Quebec) is a Canadian professional ice hockey player. He was drafted first overall by the Ottawa Senators in the 1993 NHL Entry Draft. Daigle never measured up to his potential, achieving a maximum season of only 51 points in the regular season, well below expectations for a first overall pick playing in a forward position in the NHL. The Ottawa Sun has listed him among the all time draft busts in NHL history.1 He has done well overseas, helping HC Davos win the Switzerland National League title.
A great way to start your Wikipedia entry, huh?
by red army line on Aug 31, 2010 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Ill admit, I have been a Crosby hater, but its good to see he did not wilt at being the " Next One " like Daigle did.
it always burns within
the downward spiral never ends
when driven into sin
your salvation's found in a sinner's deed
by Douchebag St John on Aug 31, 2010 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m with C-Leaguer, too many teams, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out the NHL would be better with less teams and the on ice product would be better. No one should have pay money to watch players like M. Jurcina or F. Tuytin. There’s too many average players and too many struggling franchises.
I wouldn’t put those guys on my list per say, but if you cut the league back 4 teams Dalpe, Skille, and Mueller would probably be the only guys with spots.
I think
it’s time for lunch …chinese take out ok for the 2 “debaters” ??
And if it Aint Hockey,It Aint Nothin !!
That Checkers 3rd Sweater ROCKS !!!
by CaniacSteve on Aug 30, 2010 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe it’s me but I can’t get through a whole a AHL game, I’ve seen bits and pieces on the NHL Network it’s such a step down from the NHL. I do wish they’d carry more CHL games.
I love watching AHL games just like I used to go to the old Durham Bulls games, the Raleigh Ice Caps, and in ancient days the Greenville Spinners in Greenville, S.C. There is something exciting about seeing which players have natural talent.
In the AHL, I like seeing which players seem NHL ready and then seeing them make their appearances in the NHL. I guess it’s a matter of taste.
yes i did
and it was good !! uhhh 2 & Doug through tossing meadow muffins at each other yet ?? :)
And if it Aint Hockey,It Aint Nothin !!
That Checkers 3rd Sweater ROCKS !!!
just picking on you ADoug :) I’m often inflicted with the bad typing disease as well.
"The increase in pain is way beyond what you would expect a person to play with," said coach Paul Maurice. "Unfortunately it’s even beyond what Tim Gleason can play with, because he can play with just about anything."
After 2010-2011 season
I will go with the 2 goalers
Goalie: Ward, Peters
Defense: Gleason, Carson, McBain, (i’m sure Pitkanen will be not return next year).
Forwards: Staal, Sutter, Jokinen, Ruutu, Boychuk, Bowman, Nash
Why? I assume then Samsonov, Larose, kostopoulos and Cole will play too many games then the rest of the rosters will be under the 40 games and then protect by the rule.
So unprotect you will got:
defense: Harrison, Sanguinetty (if i play more then 40 games)
offense: Cole, Samsonov, Dwyer, Larose and some kid like Samson, Tlusty, Osala, if they pass the 40 games.
2 G: Ward, Peters
3 D: Gleason, McBain, Rodney
7 F: Staal, Jokinen, Ruutu, Sutter, Boychuck, Samson, Skinner
I’m assuming Skinner has a good showing at camp and becomes a call up that sticks. Nash could fall into this spot, but I just like the idea of protecting our future sniper and the idea of seeing Skinner at the NHL level. Dwyer could take this spot if you’d like to go for a two-way guy, but no one really stood out for me at the last forward spot. You can probably tell I’m advocating protecting those with offensive talents, while hopefully filling in some roles up front.
read the rules
You guys need not list McBain, Peters, Bowman, Nash (really?), Boychuk, Skinner, Dalpe, etc, because they have all played 49 or fewer games. i think the idea is an expansion draft now, not after this coming season, since we have no way of knowing who will play past the minimum number of games this year (clearly not all of those players, right?)…
Gee while this...
is verey very interesting…but I’m a fan…not a “bleeding” GM wanna be !!! Now that i got THAT out of my system…sigh…what wasa the question again please ?? personally let me think about this and I’ll get back and post something this afternon..
And if it Aint Hockey,It Aint Nothin !!
That Checkers 3rd Sweater ROCKS !!!
Teams that have it easiest in protecting are those with a lot of rookies. Teams with a lot of good sophomore players have it the worst. Tough decisions to make.
www.prosportsblogging.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on Aug 29, 2010 1:05 PM EDT reply actions
Defensemen to be left available?
If the Canes have to leave a defensemen available who played 40 games last year or 70 in the previous two who qualifies? Does anyone other than Gleason, Pitkanen, Corvo and Babchuk qualify? If so won’t one have to be left unprotected? Is there anyway that defensemen wouldn’t be Babchuk?
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Babchuk for Fall Guy
I haven’t yet begun to look at all the variables that need to be considered, but that was the first thing I checked: how many games did Babchuk play in ‘08-’09?
Answer: 72, so yes, he’s our man for the 70+ game D-man that must be exposed.
And, you have to ask yourself. Would he be chosen?
Perhaps.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Here’s a question: If Babchuk is the guy that has to be exposed would the Canes sign Pothier for something like $650K and leave him exposed instead of Babchuk? Is that a good bet?
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
The sacrificial node theory
That’s pretty clever, since it’s a good bet that an expansion team would pick up so much experience at such an affordable price.
And, he just happens to qualify, with no margin to spare, with 70 games exactly over the past two seasons (“…OR 70 games in the last two seasons combined”).
‘08-’09: 9 games (WSH)
‘09-’10: 41 games (WSH) + 20 games (CAR) = 61 games
Total: 70 games
Here we are now...entertain us.
But, such out-of-the-box thinking is probably not allowed under the rules of this war game exercise.
And, the flaw is we don’t know just what it would take to get Brian signed.
But, interesting real world war gaming strategy there, nonetheless.
And, yes, I think the org would consider such a strategy.
Here we are now...entertain us.
I think Pothier has gone to play in Switzerland.
by red army line on Aug 29, 2010 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I had missed that. That said, Pothier was just a fill in for any defensemen that could be had cheap with the requisite number of games. Call him defensemen X for all I care. I think more people respond and interact when I use a player as opposed to the term “defensemen X”.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Order out of Chaos
At first glance, I thought this was going to be an incredible flowchart of decison-making, beginning with the one-goalie vs. two-goalie protection decision, thereby setting the maximum limits of protection for forwards and defensemen.
But, in reality, since the expansion draft only involves players with more than 49 games, only Cam Ward qualifies.
So, we know we have the one-goalie, 5 defensemen, and 9 forwards option open to us.
Spoiler alert: We don’t need anywhere near that many players protected, so this is all about which eligible players to expose: one defenseman and two forwards
Eligible Defensemen (40 games last season OR 70 games in last two seasons combined):
Pitkanen
Gleason
Corvo (81+34=115)
Babchuk (72+0=72)
Carson (5+54=59, so more than 40 games last season)
Harrison (45 combined over last two seasons, but 58 games total) is not eligible for exposure, but would need to be protected since over 49 games total.
So, since we are allowed to protect 5, but must expose one, our total of 6 works well for the requirements, with the only choice being which defenseman to expose.
Eligible Forwards (40 games last season OR 70 games in last two seasons combined):
Staal
Jokinen
Sutter
Ruutu
Samsonov
LaRose
Kostopoulos
Tlusty
Dwyer (25+58=83)
Cole (17+40=57, so qualifies under 40 last season)
And, again we have a perfect situation for the requirements, with a pool of 10 forwards over 49 games (all other prospects being below that threshold), with an option to protect 9 and a requirement to expose two.
So, the only choice is which two forwards to expose.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Defenseman to expose
I said up above that I had quickly checked to see if Babchuk was in the pool before checking any other variables, but now that I do know more variables, my opinion has shifted as to who to expose.
I would argue that Carson (5+54=59, so less than 70 games combined, but more than 40 games last season) is the one to expose, with the theory being an expansion draft is going to inflict some pain, but this way I hold the loss (assuming he’s selected) to a two-way contract of dubious trade value.
I would view Babchuk’s pending UFA status as too good of a trade deadline asset to lose to an expansion draft for no return, so he goes on my protected list.
Five defensemen can be protected.
Pitkanen, Gleason, Corvo, Babchuk, and even Harrison (not eligible for the one required exposure, but still needing to be protected) can all therefore stay on board, along with all the prospects below the 49 game threshold for protection.
Carson is the one required defenseman to expose, in my opinion.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Really wish we could expose Harrison but Carson would be the only one I’d be willing to expose (finding another defensive d-man shouldn’t be that tough). For the Forwards, expose Cole and probably Kostopoulos or LaRose or Samsonov. Tommy K is a great role-player as is Rosie. Both PK forwards, but Rosie I think brings slightly more scoring touch while Tommy K is more physical. Honestly I’d expose Cole and LaRose, but Cole+one of the three above would be the best choice in my opinion.
Two forwards to expose
Since we know that with the one-goalie, nine forward option that we can protect all forwards needing protection, except for one, and are required to expose two forwards, the menu is posted below:
Staal
Jokinen
Sutter
Ruutu
Samsonov
LaRose
Kostopoulos
Tlusty
Dwyer (25+58=83)
Cole (17+40=57, so qualifies under 40 last season)
Again, an expansion draft is going to inflict some pain, so my choice as to who to expose is all about minimizing the pain and working for me to the degree possible.
We can quickly narrow the pool by removing the players that are RFA or under contract past this season, since none of those need to be lost for no return. So multi-year contract players Staal, Ruutu, and Kostopoulos come off the list, along with RFA’ers Sutter and Tlusty.
So now we’re down to the UFA’s this summer, and it’s all about trade value lost, in my opinion:
Jokinen
Samsonov
LaRose
Dwyer (yes, he’s UFA next summer)
Cole
I’d have to lead with Dwyer, in that I’m having a hard time slotting him anyway, and there’s not much trade value lost.
Second choice has to be looked at as just a salary dump, and it’s between Cole and Samsonov, since I’m holding onto Jokinen and LaRose as possible re-signs or deadline trades.
And, between the two, it becomes who do you think is actually tradeable at the deadline (or before) and who do we move via this process instead (assuming they would be picked).
I’m saying Cole, because of physical questions haunting his trade value tipping the scales to keeping Samsonov.
Your opinion may vary, but that’s what the debate boils down to…at least in my eyes.
Cole or Samsonov to be added to Dwyer for the required exposure of two forwards with more than 70 games combined over the past two seasons OR 40 or more games last season.
Here we are now...entertain us.
I’d like to hold on to Sammy. He has the habit of performing well in contract years and being relegated to fourth line duty really reduced his ability to score b/c he plays a puck possession game in the offensive zone. I think next year when trying to build lines he’ll get some time and get 15-25 goals (depending on which line Mo will stick him in). I can see exposing Dwyer b/c he’s a depth center and we have Nash and Skinner as some good prospects to slot to center eventually. I wouldn’t be unhappy with exposing Cole+Dwyer.
That’s the way I would go. Cole or Samsonov is a toss up, I’m sure the Canes will be able to trade him at the deadline, while there is some concern that Cole might not be healthy given his history. That said, if Cole is healthy, he may bring back more in return, but at this point in time I think the Canes can take the safe approach and leave Cole unprotected. Sure Sammy may only bring in a third, but he will definitely bring that in. Cole could bring in a second, but he may bring in a fifth.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
Cole’s injury history is solving that toss-up in my eyes. It really sucks about that because I really like his power forward game. But he always seems to get creamed doing that signature cut to the crease move he does and that worries me. Injuries are a big concern with Cole nowadays. He ain’t as young as he used to be.
Summary
So, check behind me, if someone has time.
Sources:
2008-2009 Roster
2009-2010 Roster
I used Wikipedia for stats beyond those seasons, in order to check on Harrison’s and Tlusty’s total games played beyond the past two seasons.
But, it looks like we would take the “protect one goalie” option, since we only have one goalie, with over 49 games played, to protect.
We can therefore protect all players that need protection and only have to expose one defenseman and two forwards.
Defenseman: Brett Carson
Forwards: Patrick Dwyer and Erik Cole
What do you think? Are all three drafted?
On average, the two teams need two players from each org.
But, some orgs may have more appealing exposed and unprotected assets than ours.
Here we are now...entertain us.
I bet Cole gets drafted. Dwyer I would bet not. Carson will be the wild card. I could see some teams leaving players with undesirable contracts unprotected which could make a guy like Carson a bargain and highly coveted. Dwyer could also be attractive under that circumstance, but I doubt it. There are probably better options there.
Is it possible to be addicted to hockey?
,
Good thoughts.
Cole would be pretty flashy to have in either a Quebec or Winnepeg expansion team’s lineup.
Plus, no exposure beyond this one season, so why the heck not draft him? He’s probably not over-priced, especially if he stays healthy.
Carson would look mighty good to me, with his two-way contract and NHL experience for a NHL minimum price. But, we don’t know what else will be out there, and they only have 7 or 8 D slots to fill from 30 team menus.
Dwyer, I’m with you. They’ll talk to him as a UFA over the summer for their minor club and/or them, if interested.
So, maybe we only lose Cole to this draft, freeing up both salary and a roster spot on the right wing side for Bowman, if it looked like he was ready in camp.
If not, Jokinen could swing over and let Osala come up to left wing on the fourth line.
Or…grinning…there’s Skinner.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Gee after "watching"
trhe AD & C-Leaguger show…I almost forgot the “question”…which i am NOW too tired to even go there..but for what it would be worth…IF i could chose 2 cites to expand to, they would be Quebec & Winnipeg or Quebec & KCMO and lastly Quebec & Seattle but seeing i don’t have a billion in cash laying around…all i can do is “guess” right along with everyone else here…gee I wonder if “round” 3 between AD & C-leauger will be on soon ??/ hehehe…you guys are too much at times…talk about the “passion”…whoa baby…TTYL…
And if it Aint Hockey,It Aint Nothin !!
That Checkers 3rd Sweater ROCKS !!!
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