Hurricanes' Roster Remainders: What have you done for me lately? (UPDATE) Roster Trimmed To 26
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 26, 2010 11:34 AM EDT
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Last weekend, the 2010 Carolina Hurricanes training camp officially opened amongst the hoopla of the Caniac Carnival.The 46 players were divided into two groups, and Group A was clearly the new and/or younger players with little NHL experience. Eight days and four pre-season games later, we're down to 31 players and the cuts have come, as expected, from that opening day Group A. It's not always pretty, but so far I haven't heard many complaints about the first fifteen names knocked out of the running. The next week will be a lot more challenging, and perhaps controversial, as a the competition heats up for a ticket to St Petersburg.
According to comments made by Carolina Hurricanes Head Coach Paul Maurice after the game last night, it looks like two or three more players will find themselves assigned to the Charlotte Checkers (AHL) pretty soon. We also heard yesterday that the Hurricanes plan to bring 24 - 25 players to Europe when they leave Friday after the matinee game vs the Atlanta Thrashers.
After the jump, I've got a look at the compiled stats put up in the preseason for each of the remaining players and have highlighted some details that may indicate a bit better what we can expect between now and Friday.
UPDATE at 12:10pm: Not exactly rendering this story useless (but pretty close), the Canes have announced the following five players have been assigned to Charlotte: Forwards Riley Nash, Jon Matsumoto, Jared Staal and Jerome Samson and Defenseman Bryan Rodney. Full story. Only 26 players remain. With Samsonov's injury, is this the final cut?
I began this exercise only to discover that NHL.com does not compile preseason stats, so you need to keep two things in mind. One, these are my calculations based on the gamesheets for the first four games. Secondly, we should not in any way regard these stats as the most important or insightful criteria we have to evaluate this set of hockey players. It's pre-season, and winning may not have been as important as other instructions they received from the coaching staff. Also I kept in mind the brave experimentation and the quality of competition, both of which were all over the map. Do not read more into these numbers than what they deserve - a small sample under sorta-gamelike-conditions under a grueling schedule. I provide them more for curiosity than as a window to the future of the season.
If you want to check out the source docs, here are the "Event Sheets" for the four games I used to compile my numbers: Hurricanes vs Panthers, Sept 21, Hurricanes at Predators, Sept 23, Hurricanes vs Predators, Sept 24, Hurricanes at Atlanta, Sept 25.
Among the forwards, there have been three groups of positional slots we've been focusing on over the last several weeks:
- Third line center
- Top Four Wings
- Bottom Six
CENTERS
Starting with the centers, here's a look at those hoping to find a spot behind Eric Staal and Brandon Sutter:
| PLAYER | Games | G | A | P | +/- | PN | PIM | TOT TOI | Avg TOI/G | S | A/B | MS | HT | GV | TK | BS | FW | FL | F% | |||
| 12 | STAAL, ERIC | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 37.07 | 18.53 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 23 | 42.5% | ||
| 16 | SUTTER, BRANDON | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 33.75 | 16.88 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 16 | 44.8% | ||
| 18 | MATSUMOTO, JON | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 2 | 35.47 | 11.82 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 17 | 34.6% | ||
| 22 | DALPE, ZAC | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39.48 | 13.16 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 54.5% | ||
| 23 | NASH, RILEY | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 40.67 | 13.56 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 17 | 43.3% | ||
| 53 | SKINNER, JEFF | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 49.75 | 16.58 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 24 | 29.4% | ||
Jon Matsumoto, Zac Dalpe, Riley Nash and Jeff Skinner each got three games to show what they bring to the ice, though the quality of their wings varied tremendously. A couple things stand out to me among these three. Skinner led for total and average time on ice with about 16 1/2 minutes per game. Only Staal had more Shots on Goal, with 10 compared to Skinner's 9. Dalpe was third with 6. Dalpe didn't take the most face-offs, but he won over 50%, making him the only player above who did. Matsumoto had the least TOI, the worst plus/minus at -2, and as I recall, the weakest of wing personnel to help him out. Neither Nash nor Matsumoto registered a point, which, again, may be more about fulfilling their assignments.
A little more on Matsumoto: His TOI increased steadily in the three games he played in, from 9:51 to 11:25 to, finally, 14:12 last night. He was -2 in that first game Tuesday night, and even after that. The increasing icetime tells me Maurice is looking hard. In contrast, Riley Nash saw his ice time diminish from 15:34 to 13:33 to 11:53. Does that tell us anything about who's got the inside track for the role of fourth line center? We'll find out this week.
UPDATE: reports from Chip Alexander via @ice_chip twitter, more "cuts to be announced shortly".
WINGS
About all I can say with certainty is that the Hurricanes need eight of them every night, plus a couple spares. With Jiri Tlusty and now Sergei Samsonov questionable with injuries, and reports that Jared Staal and Jerome Samson are en route to Charlotte, we're left with only eight names available to fill those eight spots remaining of those listed below. Except that, as of last night's game and reports from today's practice, Jeff Skinner has been moved over to the left. And Chad LaRose is now finding himself slotted as a center. Nothing's ever simple, is it?
| PLAYER | Games | G | A | P | +/- | PN | PIM | TOT TOI | Avg TOI/G | S | A/B | MS | HT | GV | TK | BS | FW | FL | F% | |||
| 8 | O'SULLIVAN, PATRICK | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 43.48 | 14.49 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 11 | BOYCHUK, ZACH | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 2 | 44.30 | 14.77 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 14 | SAMSONOV, SERGEI | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 30.83 | 15.42 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 15 | RUUTU, TUOMO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 46.05 | 15.35 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 21 | BOWMAN, DRAYSON | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 61.97 | 15.49 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 26 | COLE, ERIK | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 31.90 | 15.95 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ||
| 29 | KOSTOPOULOS, TOM | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 39.68 | 13.23 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 34 | STAAL, JARED | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.05 | 11.05 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 36 | JOKINEN, JUSSI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32.00 | 16.00 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 66.7% | ||
| 39 | DWYER, PATRICK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21.75 | 10.88 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ||
| 59 | LAROSE, CHAD | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 45.67 | 15.22 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 30.0% | ||
| 71 | SAMSON, JEROME | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 24.40 | 12.20 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 100.0% | ||
As I see it, until Samsonov and Tlusty are back at 100%, the only real competition at the moment, is between Drayson Bowman and Zach Boychuk and perhaps Patrick Dwyer who joined the Canes midseason last year and was here for 58 games, many of those as the Canes fourth line center, not his natural position. Boychuk, the former first round draft pick in 2008 was in Raleigh for 31 games last season. He worked hard on his conditioning over the summer and many expect him to become a full-time NHLer this season.
Drayson Bowman, a prolific scorer in juniors, was a third-round pick in 2007. But he has shown up stronger than ever before for this camp, and with only 9 games up with the Hurricanes last season, Maurice is apparently intrigued and wants to understand what kind of potential is there. Bowman is one of only two players to play all four games and, with substantial ice time (over 15 minutes/game on average), Mo is seeing a lot. Bowman is a supposed to be a scorer, right?, and his leading the charts with 11 SOG (plus 7 more taken that the goalie didn't touch) is great to see, over his four games. But check out the Hits column - that number 9 there, right below Tuomo "the hitting-machine" Ruutu's 9. (yes, I know Ruu had only 3 games - but you get my drift.)
With full acknowledgment of Boychuk's efforts as he works to be whatever it is Maurice wants from him, at the moment, in my opinion: Advantage Bowman.
I also fully expect we'll be seeing a lot of Dwyer, Bowman and Boychuk on Wednesday.
DEFENSEMEN
According to reports that the Hurricanes will have eight dmen with them in Europe, that leaves only one to be sent down to the Queen City this week. Bryan Rodney bruised his knee severely at the game Friday, but is out at practice today in a yellow "no-contact" jersey. Is that enough to send him to Mecklenburg rather than St Petersburg? And what shall I say about Jay Harrison...?
| PLAYER | Games | G | A | P | +/- | PN | PIM | TOT TOI | Avg TOI/G | S | A/B | MS | HT | GV | TK | BS | ||
| 4 | D | MCBAIN, JAMIE | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 69.88 | 23.29 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 6 | D | GLEASON, TIM | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 19 | 51.15 | 17.05 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 24 | D | SANGUINETTI, BOBBY | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 62.82 | 20.94 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 25 | D | PITKANEN, JONI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25.75 | 25.75 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 | D | CARSON, BRETT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 41.77 | 20.88 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 28 | D | RODNEY, BRYAN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 31.17 | 15.58 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 33 | D | BABCHUK, ANTON | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 68.07 | 22.69 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 44 | D | HARRISON, JAY | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 3 | 9 | 66.83 | 16.71 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| 77 | D | CORVO, JOE | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 43.45 | 21.73 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
I realize Harrison stands out for his size (6-4, 211) and grit. But looking at the charts, he also shows up at a combined plu/minus of -5. Perhaps four games is not a large enough sample to draw from? He leads all defensemen for blocked shots (8) and hits with six (and is the other player, with Bowman, who has played all four games).
I don't see Bobby Sanguinetti (another of the team's first round picks atending camp this season) heading to our southwest anytime soon - he's outperformed Rodney (who was undrafted) - from both an offensive (shots taken) and defensive (hits delivered) perspective.
Is Brett Carson going to be passed over for the Euro-trip in favor of Harrison? Who would Maurice rather have out there at crunch time when the Canes need to shut the other team down? I'm going to be watching Carson, who only has 2 games so far, closely this week. He's never been much of hitting machine - is that gonna change?
One other comment - there have been observations that both Jamie McBain and Anton Babchuk were showing some real physicality at practices. Between them they've been credited with one hit so far.
GOALTENDERS
Finally - last night made all the difference for Cam Ward's numbers. Nothing like a 32-save shutout to do that for ya.
| Player | Games (Starts) | Minutes | Goals allowed | Shots faced | GAA | SV % | W | L | |
| 30 | WARD, CAM | 2 (2) | 92 | 3 | 52 | 1.96 | 0.942 | 1 | 1 |
| 31 | POGGE, JUSTIN | 2 (1) | 88 | 3 | 31 | 2.05 | 0.903 | 0 | 1 |
| 60 | PETERS, JUSTIN | 2 (1) | 60 | 1 | 28 | 1.00 | 0.964 | 1 | 0 |
| 70 | MURPHY, MIKE | 1 (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 |
According to reports, there are more cuts expected this afternoon. Take a look at the numbers and see if they match your impressions from what you've seen and read. We don't make the calls, but we have a lot of information to better understand how it's done.
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Interesting tweet from ice_chip just now: Appears third-line center will be Jussi Jokinen, according to Maurice.
Not sure if that means just for Wednesday or for the foreseeable future.
"What Carolina really has going for them is Brandon Sutter. When that kid first showed up, he looked like a skinny little thing that wouldn’t last two weeks. But he’s turned into a real star."
I know – Nothing like working for hours assembling all the stats and writing it up to see one tweet render it pointless. ;)
Still – I’m wondering on that choice for Jussi too. He must like the wings (Dwyer, Bowman, Boychuk) better than Nash and Matsumoto.
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 26, 2010 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Sounds to me like they may have decided a certain someone is a lock for a top-6 Wing spot, pushing Jussi to 3rd line Center.
Skinner – Staal – Ruutu
Cole – Sutter – O’Sullivan
Bowman – Jokinen – Tlusty
Kostop – Dwyer – Larose
It is still hard to come up with a potential lineup, even after Samsonov getting injured frees up a spot.
Eh, I wouldn’t worry too much. The way Mo switches lines, odds are Jussi will end up back on wing at some point and one of the green circled prospects (nicely done by the way) will be centering the third line.
"What Carolina really has going for them is Brandon Sutter. When that kid first showed up, he looked like a skinny little thing that wouldn’t last two weeks. But he’s turned into a real star."
Canes Organization & Nurturing Young Players
As I’ve mentioned previously, the entire situation with Boychuk is puzzling to me; but of course Okam’s Razor (simplest explanation is most often the correct answer) would say it’s just a case of Boychuk needing more time in the AHL. I can easily accept that answer as being correct. On the other hand, my perception is that Maurice has some way he wants Boychuk to play and is actively at work to make that happen. As such, given the fact the Hurricanes are an organization that is built around being a nurturing environment, it would seem the coaches, Jim Rutherford, and Jason Karmanos Jr. would err on the side of keeping Dwyer, Bowman, Boychuk, Dalpe, on the travel team to Europe and perhaps the long away game stand. At this point, however, I am more confused than anything else given the lack of scoring punch and the trades/non-re-signing of Whitney, I’d have thought finding some young scorers would be a matter of top priority. I realize the Hurricanes brain trust are experts and I’m not the least bit skeptical. It seems to me there are only good choices for many of the positions. I am assuming as well based on the organization’s comments with regard to Belanger not being retained as an asset that Boychuk is viewed as an asset not to be wasted or under-valued.
Okay, I admit I laughed at the photo. But only a little. Please tell me you used MS Paint. Very nicely done!
Great compilation! Although I visualize papers being thrown into the air in frustration after that tweet from Chip about Jussi.
Phoblographer and Finn Aficionado
SISU
Just papers? I’m hoping her computer screen doesn’t have a HM fist sized hole in it.
"What Carolina really has going for them is Brandon Sutter. When that kid first showed up, he looked like a skinny little thing that wouldn’t last two weeks. But he’s turned into a real star."
And, if you want to kind to you blogging faithful Mo, if you say 2 or 3 players will be cut, Saturday night at midnight, please don’t change that to 7 players at 11am Sunday morning.
Darn that pancake breakfast. I don’t even like pancakes. ;)
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 26, 2010 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I do. You have any left over? I’m headed in that direction. Just sayin.
And CG, your visual is better than mine, as HM is in all likelihood paperless.
Phoblographer and Finn Aficionado
SISU
by Jamie Kellner on Sep 26, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Ha! Yes – it was MSPaint. I had Boy13 giving me suggestions – it’s one of his favorite programs.
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 26, 2010 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Just saw the tweet we’re down to 26. BRB.
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 26, 2010 12:08 PM EDT reply actions
And not there are 26:
The five players assigned to Charlotte are forwards Jon Matsumoto, Riley Nash, Jerome Samson and Jared Staal, as well as defenseman Bryan Rodney
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 26, 2010 12:09 PM EDT reply actions
Well…bright side…you can have Boy13 help you with MS Paint again. :)
"What Carolina really has going for them is Brandon Sutter. When that kid first showed up, he looked like a skinny little thing that wouldn’t last two weeks. But he’s turned into a real star."
Yeah, but it’s going to be an MS Paint of HM with steam coming out of her ears.
Phoblographer and Finn Aficionado
SISU
by Jamie Kellner on Sep 26, 2010 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
If he’s anything like my brother was at that age, odds are Boy13 has seen that look before. He could probably put it together from memory.
"What Carolina really has going for them is Brandon Sutter. When that kid first showed up, he looked like a skinny little thing that wouldn’t last two weeks. But he’s turned into a real star."
Since you asked:
Here’s the visual with the latest round of cuts. From Group “B” of the first day, only Rodney has been cut.
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 26, 2010 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I know it’s just coincidence, but it seems fitting that 2 out of the 4 guys left are genuinely smiling in their photos.
"What Carolina really has going for them is Brandon Sutter. When that kid first showed up, he looked like a skinny little thing that wouldn’t last two weeks. But he’s turned into a real star."
And I could have chosen a different one for Pogge which might have been even more appropriate.
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 26, 2010 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s one of my favorite pictures of him, no doubt about it. This one is still in first place though. Warning: hockey eye candy.
"What Carolina really has going for them is Brandon Sutter. When that kid first showed up, he looked like a skinny little thing that wouldn’t last two weeks. But he’s turned into a real star."
Yes it is. The picture is a few years old, but it’s definitely him.
"What Carolina really has going for them is Brandon Sutter. When that kid first showed up, he looked like a skinny little thing that wouldn’t last two weeks. But he’s turned into a real star."
For the love of all that is holy
I sure wish I was younger and single (well, younger anyway).
Twitter @ ivyleager
Very proud that I “recognized” both photos before I even launched them :D
Phoblographer and Finn Aficionado
SISU
by Jamie Kellner on Sep 26, 2010 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions
They were both joking around and laughing at practice today – big grins on their faces. Skinner is adorable, btw! Skating around with his tongue hanging out…
Want. Hockey. Now.
by Andrea's evil twin on Sep 26, 2010 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh he is beyond adorable. I said it last night, but that kid is basically a living, breathing hockey playing doll. I’m willing to forgive a lot of shortcomings if the player has a great attitude and that kid has one of the best attitudes there is.
Just think of the promotional ads we’re going to have in 2 or 3 years with this group. The opportunities really are endless.
"What Carolina really has going for them is Brandon Sutter. When that kid first showed up, he looked like a skinny little thing that wouldn’t last two weeks. But he’s turned into a real star."
Riley Nash
I bet Nash is wishing he had not signed now, and stayed in college. I’m sure they told him he had a REALLY good chance to make the team just to get him to sign.
Carolina Hurricanes! Your 2011 Stanley Cup Champions!
If I were him, I’d be super pissed about making $500,000+ playing in the AHL next year. -sarcasm
I think he will live.
Agreed, he’ll be fine, but he has a 2-way and will make $65,000 with the Checkers. (announcement). But he got that nice signing bonus of $262,500 this summer. As you say, he’ll live.
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 26, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
That confuses me, doesn’t it say he gets the AHL pay in addition to his entry level pay? I thought tookie deals paid the full amount no matter what?
There are no two-way, entry-level deals that work that way. Nope, you only get paid your NHL salary if you’re in the NHL on your ELD.
by Cory Lavalette on Sep 27, 2010 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions
So that leaves us with Skinner, Bowman, Tlusty and Dalpe looking for spots at forward? And Sanguinetti, Harrison and Carson battling for that last top 6 D spot?
Still a few decisions to be made in the next week.
"What Carolina really has going for them is Brandon Sutter. When that kid first showed up, he looked like a skinny little thing that wouldn’t last two weeks. But he’s turned into a real star."
I agree those are the ones competing, but they won’t necessarily decide this week. We’re down to 15 forwards, 8 D and 3 Goalies now. That’s the 26 – it’s all coming down to one forward who’s staying home for this trip – and if Sammi is out for a couple weeks, decisions made.
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 26, 2010 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I wasn’t thinking more cuts were to be made, but more of who gets to suit up on D in Russia and Helsinki. That’s where it’s still a little fuzzy for me.
"What Carolina really has going for them is Brandon Sutter. When that kid first showed up, he looked like a skinny little thing that wouldn’t last two weeks. But he’s turned into a real star."
I see your point – but not sure the starting six will last more than one game at a time anyway. I do think there will be more cuts October 10th. That’s likely the next significant roster move.
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 26, 2010 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I could see them just rotating Sangs, Carson and Harrison through that last spot because by the time they get to Europe, I’m thinking 5/6 of that group is set in stone. Unless someone really blows it or morphs into the next Bobby Orr overnight.
"What Carolina really has going for them is Brandon Sutter. When that kid first showed up, he looked like a skinny little thing that wouldn’t last two weeks. But he’s turned into a real star."
Maurice Kicks the Table Over
I have got to start paying attention more to what Mo casually says three months before he has to do something. :-D
He mentioned early in the post-season that he’d like to see Jokinen at center. And, voila!
Well, this changes everything. And, in a good way, in my opinion.
One, it tells me they’re keeping Skinner, and playing him as a winger right off the bat. Despite them saying he’d had experience at left wing, I’d prefer to see him on the right with that left shot of his, but whatever, it’s a good decision. Life’s simpler there, especially from the third line slot I expect to see him occupy for his launch.
Jokinen as his center. Put a NHL vet on the right (or left, wherever Skinner is not), like Cole if they need a RW or, heck, O’Sullivan if they need a LW to complement Jokinen/Skinner.
That right there is the answer to points from the third line that we so desperately need to have as currently balanced (second line having to conduct checking responsibilities cutting into its offense a bit).
Now, the other pieces begin to fall into place, although Skinner’s of course being groomed to ascend to the first line when ready.
Samsonov / Staal / Ruutu
Tlusty / Sutter / LaRose
Skinner / Jokinen / Cole
O’Sullivan / Dalpe / Kostopoulos
Tlusty may or may not be ready for that LW role as the season opens, but they’re taking off the yellow jersey on Tuesday, I saw, so he’s close.
What do you think? Lots of moving parts, so substitutes for all of the above pieces exist within the system.
But, something like this is how I think they’re approaching Opening Day.
Here we are now...entertain us.
You think Sammy is going to ready for opening day? IMO, he may be the odd forward out leaving his spot open.
"What Carolina really has going for them is Brandon Sutter. When that kid first showed up, he looked like a skinny little thing that wouldn’t last two weeks. But he’s turned into a real star."
Hard to tell with a sprain as to severity, but I think the possibility exists that he doesn’t even travel to Europe.
Phoblographer and Finn Aficionado
SISU
by Jamie Kellner on Sep 26, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Samsonov and Staying Home While Team Travels
It’s really a logical solution to leave Samsonov back in Raleigh. He hasn’t played a full game yet; and on the other side the other forwards have been in an all out battle for a position. None of the six forwards deserve to be sent down to Raleigh. At this point, many fans are pointing to Boychuk as the odd man out; but given the team’s approach to nurturing players, taking a player who played in 31 games last season and then sending him back to Charlotte before even playing one regular season game seems uncharacteristically harsh.
Honestly, has Boychuk earned a spot on the team right now? I know it might hurt his feelings, but he needs to go to Charlotte and use his NHL experience to tear up the A. He will get his shot this season. Let him build his confidence up before coming back to the N. I like his hustle, but we need him to be offensive and right now he looks lost in that area.
Now I have really been impressed with Bowman so far. I know he doesn’t have any points, but he’s throwing his body around. To me, he looks like he is developing into a solid 3rd line winger. If he can get his scoring going a little, he has a real good shot at a nice career in Carolina. I’m sure it won’t be this season, but I’m interested in seeing a Osala-Nash-Bowman or a Bowman-Nash-Opie Staal line in the future.
Triple Gold Juice - It's Potent and Guaranteed to Help You Score!
by PackPride17 on Sep 26, 2010 4:15 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Plus Bowman was close to top in SOG first 3 games. So his lack of points is not for lack of trying, he was banging and trying to get shots through. I just did not see it from Boychuck, which is sad I have high hopes for Boychuck. Unless he turns up his play a lot and soon AHL may not be a bad starting location, does not mean we could not bring him up a bit later in the season once he starts to get some confidence back.
Right now, it’s Bowman > Boychuk on a number of fronts.
Bowman’s showing a good two-way responsible game, so has caught Mo’s eye. Has hit at least one post of which I know, and I want to say two.
But, as for who “wins”, it’s probably moot for now. I bet both are taken overseas, with Boychuk serving as LW insurance and Bowman as RW insurance. Dalpe goes as center and/or backup winger, if they can take 26.
I would have had Dwyer in the mix as a familiar utility player to Mo (always a safe bet), until HMof2 mentioned that they are expecting. Just like the family-friendly org that is the Canes to take that into consideration, especially since it’s just an insurance role that is well-covered by others.
And, once they return and cut to 22 or 23, then probably ALL of the insurance pieces find themselves in Charlotte. There’s where the dogfight of who makes it back begins.
There will be injuries, if nothing else…because the more physical teams are going to beat on us this season, for one thing.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Remembering how indifferent they were to Michael Leighton the day after his daughter was born last Halloween (I think we all remember that), not sure how it would play out from Mo’s point of view..
I could imagine that if the baby hasn’t arrived by Friday, that might be something the Dwyer family discusses. Not really anything I can or should second-guess, but it’s an interesting angle that I hadn’t considered till today.
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 26, 2010 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, left up to Mo, he’ll like the familiarity of knowing Dwyer’s game from last season.
He’s definitely on the list, in my opinion, family matters aside, as a Jeff-Daniels-type utility player with a defensive game that Mo trusts.
Here we are now...entertain us.
and traveling to St Petersburg Russia and then Helsinki for a week is a little different from a quick jaunt up to Philadelphia. Again, we need to tuck that in the back of our mind as the week goes a long and decisions need to be made if Samsonov and Tlusty are good-to-go.
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 26, 2010 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I do. I think the whole thing was just precautionary.
I mean, he was discharged from the hospital and walked to the plane.
He’s fine.
Here we are now...entertain us.
For his sake, I hope you’re right. By all accounts, he’s been on fire lately. But walking 20 feet to a plane and playing a full contact sport are worlds apart. We’ll know more in the next couple of days of course, but if it comes down to taking an iffy player in Sammy or a perfectly healthy substitute, I think Sammy is staying stateside.
"What Carolina really has going for them is Brandon Sutter. When that kid first showed up, he looked like a skinny little thing that wouldn’t last two weeks. But he’s turned into a real star."
All they can do is wait and see I suppose. I wonder what connections he still has in Russia? He’s our only Russian born player (since it’s been pointed out to me that Babchuk is Ukrainian – which is an entirely different country).
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 26, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah those Eastern European countries tend to blend together for me, but from what I’ve heard Ukrainians don’t smile at being called Russians. But then again, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen Babs smile.
I’m sure Sammy still has extended family in Russia.
"What Carolina really has going for them is Brandon Sutter. When that kid first showed up, he looked like a skinny little thing that wouldn’t last two weeks. But he’s turned into a real star."
No neck brace. No, “let’s keep you overnight and see how you feel in the morning”.
Even Mo’s upbeat in his quoted assessment.
They’re just paranoid super-cautious after their attorneys carefully explained to them how exposed they were after letting Erik walk off the ice with a broken neck.
Here we are now...entertain us.
According to the reports from last night, he was wearing a neck brace as he left the hospital.
Phoblographer and Finn Aficionado
SISU
by Jamie Kellner on Sep 26, 2010 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
To be fair, I’m not sure that you can come into the hospital on a back board and NOT leave wearing some sort of neck brace. They hand them out like Halloween candy. Hospitals don’t like being open to lawsuits any more than do hockey teams, especially when they involve necks and spines.
Either way though, him getting discharged that same night is a very very good sign and hopefully he’ll be back to stickhandling in a phone booth in no time.
"What Carolina really has going for them is Brandon Sutter. When that kid first showed up, he looked like a skinny little thing that wouldn’t last two weeks. But he’s turned into a real star."
I’m sure if the doctors let him go then there isn’t a severe injury. My point was that he can feel fine walking to the plane (after they’ve probably given him a painkiller at the hospital) and then feel very unfine after taking a full-on hit in a game. Only time and testing it out will tell.
"What Carolina really has going for them is Brandon Sutter. When that kid first showed up, he looked like a skinny little thing that wouldn’t last two weeks. But he’s turned into a real star."
Neck Sprains and Healing Time
Slamming into boards at full speed head first has all the makings of an injury that takes time before the player returns to full contact sports. Plenty of people in car wrecks are not ready for golf or tennis for weeks or months with neck sprains. There are all varieties of neck sprains and obviously I didn’t see the video of the impact. It’s a scenario, however, where very severe injuries can occur; and I wouldn’t be surprised if it takes quite some time before he is ready to play hockey.
I’m just not sold on Tlusty playing in the top 6. He has shown that he is defensively responsible, but has not shown any offense.
I’m thinking/hoping:
O’Sullivan – Staal – Cole
Skinner – Sutter – Ruutu
Samsonov – Jokinen – Dalpe
Tlusty/Bowman – LaRose – Kostopoulos
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by PackPride17 on Sep 26, 2010 1:01 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I like these best of what I’ve seen here. Who’d a thought of LaRose as 4th line Center?… But I can see it. I haven’t checked- has he played much center as a pro?
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 26, 2010 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Our “second line” role is not what most org’s second lines role is, so not necessarily stocked with the second best talent on the offensive depth chart.
Skinner’s not ready to handle Ovechkin coming down the wall.
But, who is? :-D
Here we are now...entertain us.
Yeah our 2nd line isn’t like most, but neither are any of our other lines. While Ruutu and Sutter will knock in some rebounds, you need someone that can actually shoot like Skinner. The best defense (for someone like Ovie) is a good offense.
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by PackPride17 on Sep 26, 2010 1:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Anyway, we have Mo’s boy, the next Pronger, Jay Harrison to shut down Ovie and Semin.
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by PackPride17 on Sep 26, 2010 1:57 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I like Tlusty’s game. He can definitely score (as proven in the AHL), it’s just a matter of that translating. But his game is more rounded than, say, Samson, and he can contribute each night without scoring. He may not be top six now, but he could be a Justin Williams type. He’s been around for a while and it’s easy to forget he’s just 22 — about half a year older than Dalpe and Boychuk.
by Cory Lavalette on Sep 27, 2010 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Cory,
I’m not completely against Tlusty. I just feel that many people have him slotted for more than I feel he can be. I think he’s a solid 3rd line winger, someone that can fill in the top 6 on occasion. I just don’t think he is a sure top 6 or will really ever be a true top 6 player.
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Even if Tlusty’s not “2nd line” material in your eyes, but only 3rd, in our current system we’re a bit muddled in those inner two lines, with the traditional third line role being run from our second.
So, maybe Tlusty sort of is slotted on the “third line”, even if on Sutter’s wing.
Conversely, our actual third line needs to score more than most team’s third to make up for the checking distraction and defense-first personnel that is our second line. So, our third is sort of performing most team’s second line role.
Therefore, slotting Skinner on Jokinen’s wing on the third is akin to giving him a second line scoring role.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Tlusty and Maurice's Preferred Style of Play
Cory,
I am with you on Tlusty. Justin Williams is a good analogy, I think. It’s clear that Maurice has in his brain the vision a style of play that he wants out of his forwards. Tlusty’s solid two way play, with the potential to also be a scorer, fits the preferred Maurice style well. I think Bowman is getting big love from Maurice because he combination of scoring ability and physicality is well-suited to Maurice’s desired style. I felt prior to the start of this season that Bowman could hit his way onto the Canes roster. Bowman is a natural scorer, but he has added to his game the dimension of finishing hits with a purpose.
As I look at how is odd man out, it’s clear to me there are no bad choices. I think Skinner has shown he deserves to be on the team. O’Sullivan, too, has had a great training camp and has proven he can score goals in the NHL. With Dalpe, Boychuk, Dwyer, Bowman, all four deserve to be on the Canes team in terms of talent and performance. Bowman’s physical play and overall play in the preseason games, I think, should and has earned him a roster spot.
Dalpe, too, fits well with the style of play Maurice is seeking to instill in the team. Dalpe, I think, will be a very special player for the Hurricanes and he seems ready for the NHL now. As between Dwyer and Boychuk, Dwyer has shown himself very capable at killing penalties and in playing a solid two way game. He has great speed and plays much more physically than one might think given his size. Boychuk has tremendous offensive firepower and in 2009-2010, he scored some very important goals for the Hurricanes. As between Dwyer and Boychuk, Dwyer’s game seems to fit much more closely than Boychuk with Maurice’s style. On the other hand, Boychuk is the kind of player who can score goals and can turn a game around with his speed.
Last season even with Whitney and Cullen the Hurricanes struggled offensively. This season, I am much more concerned about scoring goals than having one more excellent penalty killer. Even so, I don’t see the issue between Boychuk and Dwyer (if that is how the last man standing comes down) as a matter of the end of Western Civilization. As far as I am concerned, either player would be an asset to the team; and either choice will be fine short term and long term. I do wonder what Maurice wants Boychuk to do differently and I hope in the process of developing Boychuk into a Maurice kind of hockey player Boychuk’s offensive creativity isn’t stifled.
Boychuk
I think your assessment is a good one. Certainly the way to Mo’s heart is through defense, but at the end of the day, goals must be scored.
Boychuk will get there. I think he led the Rats in plus/minus last season, didn’t he? It’s minor little technical things that need some final tweaks, and no better place to do that than under Coach Daniels (Mr. Defensive Reliability) and Francis/Brind’Amour on day trips or overnights from Raleigh.
It’s not like there’s a fundamental flaw to his game. Mo’s just “coaching” him, in the only way Mo seems to know how to do so.
Plus, even if he starts the season in the AHL, there will be injuries, and a guaranteed left wing slot once Samsonov moves onward.
He only turns 21 next week. Plenty of time remaining to find a slot for him. I do wish him well and still have faith in that 2008 first-round draft pick (14th overall) working out for us.
And, if not, then I at least hope for Andrew Ladd value if another org is where his chance lies, as that value-for-value trade for Tuomo Ruutu surely has worked out for us.
So, if the fit is not there, I hope it’s us, and not him.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Here’s the latest on all this from the Canes – with Bowman the story’s cover boy.
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 26, 2010 12:41 PM EDT reply actions
Barring injury to another player between now and the end of the week, that leaves five seats on the plane for the forward group of Zach Boychuk, Drayson Bowman, Zac Dalpe, Patrick Dwyer, Patrick O’Sullivan and Jeff Skinner. All have had at least reasonably good camps, but a decision will have to be made.
The story linked above is chockfull of insight on the battle among the forwards.
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 26, 2010 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s taking me to the link on Nash’s signing. That happening for anyone else?
This takes me to the Canes’ story.
"What Carolina really has going for them is Brandon Sutter. When that kid first showed up, he looked like a skinny little thing that wouldn’t last two weeks. But he’s turned into a real star."
Yep – the url somehow got swapped at the top. Like I don’t have like16 tabs across the top of my browser… http://hurricanes.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=538678
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 26, 2010 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
3 goalies?
Does anyone have any insight as to why we still have both peters and pogge? I thought peters was a shoe-in for backup… anyone think pogge will make the cut?
It's a Caniac Thing
I think Pogge’s still here because the organization plans to send 3 goalies to Europe since they won’t have the ability to call up on the fly.
Phoblographer and Finn Aficionado
SISU
by Jamie Kellner on Sep 26, 2010 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Depth Chart Lines 9/26
Canes depth chart shows Bowman at 2nd line wing..I’m surprised.
And O’Sullivan as a 4th line wing. Really? Here’s the link.
I’m thinking those are speculation. Or I’m hoping they’re not generated under Mo’s strict guidance.
Sammi- Staal – Cole (what is this? 2009 playoffs? I thought we were going young and the 2 oldest F’s on the top line?)
Bowman – Sutter – Ruutu
Skinner – Jokinen – LaRose
O’Sullivan – Dwyer – Kostopoulos
Tlusty – Dalpe – Boychuk at 13 through 15…?
And Sanguinetti and Carson as 7th and 8th D.
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 26, 2010 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I have to say, we’re looking real good down the right side when I look at those lines. That order could be juggled at will, as to who’s hot, got chemistry, or is less injured, with Bowman and Samson for depth.
Center looks strong, too, with depth there that will only get better as Charlotte’s season progresses.
Left side’s not bad, either, with Boychuk thinking he should be there and Dwyer capable of shifting over. One day Osala will join the mix.
Nice list of ingredients. Season to taste. Mix well and bake until ready. Serves 18,630. :-D
Here we are now...entertain us.
These lines wouldn’t surprise me at all. They seem Mo like. We have a 3rd line LW and RW on our top line. A 2nd line LW with 2 or 3 career NHL goals. And a 3rd line (normally most teams checking line) with every player under 6’ tall.
This is going to be a very interesting year. Who are the top prospects for the 2011 Draft?
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by PackPride17 on Sep 26, 2010 2:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
These lines wouldn’t surprise me at all. They seem Mo like. We have a 3rd line LW and RW on our top line. A 2nd line LW with 2 or 3 career NHL goals. And a 3rd line (normally most teams checking line) with every player under 6’ tall.
Hilarious…and true.
Somehow, this does feel “right”, doesn’t it? :-D
Here we are now...entertain us.
Bravo!
I don’t understand Maurice’s logic in constantly sticking Skinner with LaRose. I would think an 18 year old sniper would need some muscle around him to create space (Staal, Cole, Ruutu, even Kostop). Who honestly understands the reasoning behind anything Mo does though?
You saw LaRose as the third line center is why you saw them together last time, which I doubt we’ll see in the regular season.
And, earlier when Skinner was auditioning at center, veteran wingers was a pretty good idea at that time, with LaRose certainly good for that third line role. In fact, LaRose is useful as a “go get the puck” and/or create some space type role on any line.
Not sure we’ll see them on the same line in the regular season, although one of Cole or LaRose is likely for the third line as we open the season.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Larose / Skinner / Dwyer was Skinner’s line for a large part of the first home game (3 midgets) and Larose / Jokinen / Skinner was his line for the 2nd home game (which is what the depth chart has, 3 guys under 6’ tall).
Unfortunately I didn’t get to listen to last nights game, but it sounded like he got some time next to some bigger guys (Cole and Staal) and was successful. The depth chart is never very reliable. Counting on Mo to put good lines together is even less reliable.
Not much of a surprise who the last forwards are to make the team. Maybe Skinner, however, since Traverse it kind of seemed obvious. How long he stays is the next question. And we all know these lines will be arranged and rearranged a thousand times before and during a game so don’t fret because at some point the lines will be exactly how somebody on here would like to see them.
by hotchipsnsalsa on Sep 26, 2010 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ve got to get a satellite! I can’t go a whole Fall of watching the Carolina Panthers. They are freakin’ horrible and unbearable to watch. Can’t the NFL realize they are unwatchable and switch to another game?
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by PackPride17 on Sep 26, 2010 2:34 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
great effort HM2
and we’ll never serve ya pancakes if we ever have you & the family over !!!! and to everyone else..I love the fact that The Juice will be The 3rd line center…
And if it Aint Hockey,It Aint Nothin !!
That Checkers 3rd Sweater ROCKS !!!
O’Sullivan-Staal-Ruutu
Samsonov(Bowman)-Sutter-Cole
Skinner-Jokinen-Larose(Boychuk)
Tlusty-Dwyer(Larose)-TK
It comes down to which young player can produce in the top 9 because you dont want to hinder their development on the 4th line. If it’s Dalpe or Boychuck, then Larose may play 4th line center and Jokinen plays wing or center depending, lets be honest, on a good team Larose is on the checking line anyway. LW is a bit more congested, Bowman may just be a sub for the time being or if they see something worthy of a top 9 slot, Tlusty gets sent down and Sergei does 4th line duty. I think Bowman gets time in Charlotte though.
Since the roster is trimmed down and Samsonov, Tlusty, and Dwyer are unlikely to play the next preseason game in Florida; I would like to see a few experiments before the final 2 preseason games. Here are the lines I would like to see next game:
Skinner-Staal-Jokinen
Bowman-Sutter-Ruutu
O’Sullivan-Dalpe-Cole
Boychuk-LaRose-Kostopoulos
Gleason-McBain
Pitkanen-Sanguinetti
Corvo-Harrison
Peters-Pogge
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by PackPride17 on Sep 26, 2010 8:49 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
you had me until I saw Harrison. I’d like to swap him out for Carson, please.
I really like that 3rd line – there’s some chemistry there.
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 26, 2010 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I know, I know! I’m just trying to be realistic and we all know that Mo will play his illegitimate son; trying to prove to the world he knows more than we do. One day Harrison will actually play a good game, the law of averages, and we will have to hear it from Mo. Because if Harrison gets praised for last season (gutting it out) and this preseason; God only knows how Mo will react if AWard Jr actually plays well.
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by PackPride17 on Sep 26, 2010 10:17 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Fishtank update - it's crystal clear
Speaking of chemistry, I was startled today by how clear the water in the fish tank was this afternoon. Last year at this time everything was off, and the water was dense and cloudy. Not sure why it’s so crystal clear now ( a number of improvements I’ve been working on), but really spectacular, and effervescent. It’s been since spring 2009 that it looked this good. Really.
And, FWIW, Skinnerfish is a beast, still – always gets himself in the right place at the right time for the best flake. He can swallow a freeze-dried shrimp whole – only Sutterfish also has that capacity.
Bainerfish is tireless and incredibly quick – though he went after a ref-fish tonight – what was that about?
The @johhnyfish is slick and continues to pursue the one remaining storm squad member, who is now over 4 years old. God bless him.
With the death of one ref fish and stormy the frog in the last month (both were pretty old – no worries), I’m contemplating a Dalpe or Bowman fish. Or maybe both. Tough decisions ahead.
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 26, 2010 9:42 PM EDT reply actions
I’m guessing swallowing whole freeze-dried shrimp is a good thing. And that it doesn’t translate into weight gain on the actual person because that kid is as skinny as every.
"What Carolina really has going for them is Brandon Sutter. When that kid first showed up, he looked like a skinny little thing that wouldn’t last two weeks. But he’s turned into a real star."
Ever. Not every. My goodness, I need to start going to be earlier.
"What Carolina really has going for them is Brandon Sutter. When that kid first showed up, he looked like a skinny little thing that wouldn’t last two weeks. But he’s turned into a real star."
going to be*d* ? ;)
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 27, 2010 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh for heaven’s sake. I was seriously out of it this morning wasn’t I? That’s probably going to be reflected in my test grade dang it.
"What Carolina really has going for them is Brandon Sutter. When that kid first showed up, he looked like a skinny little thing that wouldn’t last two weeks. But he’s turned into a real star."
I saw Toronto released Wayne Primeau. Could we sign him and assign him to Charlotte? Maybe he could teach the young centers how to work in the faceoff circle? And just in case the Canes actually play pretty well, he could be used as the 4th line center and a penalty killer.
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by PackPride17 on Sep 26, 2010 10:32 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I doubt he’d want to go play in the AHL.
by Cory Lavalette on Sep 27, 2010 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions
It’s just an option. We obviously need someone that can win a faceoff and he was just released from Toronto (not exactly the Red Wings). He could go play overseas, some other NHL team could pick him up, or he could retire. But if he wants to continue to play and wants a chance of playing in the NHL; a AHL contract might be an option for him. You never know the answer to question you never ask.
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Just out of curiosity, can anyone explain to me why we shouldn’t be thinking about putting Sanguinetti (sp?) in that 6th d-man spot instead of Harrison? I haven’t seen the guy play, but he has chipped in offensively and from the looks of it, he has played well defensively as well. Any reason why Harrison can’t be a scratch and have Booby S. (or brett carson for that matter) be that 6th guy?
Member of Canes Country and the Cat Scratch Reader
Both Sanguinetti and Carson are better options, but Harrison has an ace up his sleeve in Mo. That is the reason and the ONLY reason Harrison is even in the discussion of making our squad and probably cracking the opening night lineup.
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by PackPride17 on Sep 26, 2010 11:08 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Good point. That and the fact JR signed him to a one way deal, which was a mistake IMO. Hopefully Sanguinetti can be a contributor next year.
Member of Canes Country and the Cat Scratch Reader
Looking for the source of love from Mo and JR? Look at two columns:hits and blocked shots. Everyone talks about the team’s lack of physicality. That’s what Harrison is bringing, and I think that’s what the brain trust is looking for.
But you could also look at another important stat and see the reasoning behind most people questioning the decision. His +/- during the preseason is -5. He might be blocking a few shots and throwing a few hits, but he’s also on the ice a lot when the other team scores.
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by PackPride17 on Sep 27, 2010 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Bingo, take a look at the goals they scored when he was on the ice and just how blatantly terrible he is.
Harrison and Passing the Puck
Not to pile on too much with regard to Harrison, but I think Harrison also has a tendency to fire passes that are almost impossible for his teammates to control and the errant passes often result in icing the puck. I don’t see him making tape to tape passes very often; so when forwards are on his line, their play can appear fairly disjointed as they try to gather in ankle high, howitzer passes.
Stats All Folks!
Much thanks to HMof2 for bringing order out of chaos (which, per my physics professors, always takes energy).
Preseason stats are a limited data set…but they are a data set.
So, here’s a couple of observations, now that the furor of the Jokinen-as-third-line-center news has subsided.
Faceoffs: Yikes! Okay, limited data set, but only Dalpe looks like he knows what he’s doing at 54.5% (12 out of 20).
Eric!…shake of the head…42.5% (17 out of 30)? It’s Season 8…yes, 8…$7.5 million dollars?…any of this ringing a bell?…c’mon, it’s Go time.
Shooting percentage: I’m not sure what the league average (median would perhaps be even more interesting) as to what a “normal” shooting percentage might be. I read somewhere that 12% is a good number, and indeed a player could hit 20 goals over 82 games with only about 2 shots per game with that very success rate.
However, have a hot year/linemate and hit 20% success rate with 2 shots per game and you’re suddenly in 30+ goal per year territory, which is what happens for 30-goal scorers…sometimes.
Other times, they simply get more shots, like PP time they never had before. Their same 12% success rate is then good for 30 goals if they get one more shot per game for 3 shots per game.
It’s really that simple. Improve the success rate with positioning, screening, and opportunistic goals and/or take more shots (while maintaining the quality of the shots the same as before).
And, who are our stars, based on admittedly an incredibly small sample size? Samsonov and Cole, two players we need to have outstanding contract years, are leading the pack at 33% (each at 1 for 3).
Patrick O’Sullivan is the other hot hand, at 25% (2 for 8) in a slightly larger data set. Give that boy some PP time!
Jeff Skinner is a respectable 11% (1 for 9), but at a 3 shots per game pace, so could hit 30 goals at that pace.
Yes, a limited data set. But, nonetheless, backs up the gut feelings a bit, doesn’t it?
Here we are now...entertain us.
Unfortunately I believe that Staal will never actually be able to compete with other true #1 Centers in the faceoff circle. It sucks as a difference from 45% to 55% FO wins can literally mean hundreds of possessions and offensive opportunities… But I really don’t think he is going to magically become a 50% guy.
Faceoffs
It sucks as a difference from 45% to 55% FO wins can literally mean hundreds of possessions and offensive opportunities
You hit the nail on the head, and while we’re talking stats, take a look at this work done by Behind the Net, supplied by my seatmate.
Among their conclusions was a particular emphasis on losing faceoffs in your own end:
In the first seven seconds after a face-off in your own end, you are 10 times more likely to be scored on if you lost the draw than if you won it. In fact, more than 10% of all the goals in the NHL during the 2003-04 season were allowed within 20 seconds of a team losing a face-off in its own defensive zone. Overall, that means that one out of every 40 lost face-offs resulted in a goal in the next 20 seconds. In a league where teams score just 2.5 goals per game, that makes a significant difference.
Now, maybe losing the draw can be countered a bit by putting an emphasis on “compete for the puck”.
But I haven’t really seen that point of emphasis being demonstrated just yet this preseason. Maybe it’s me.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Working link
Let’s try that Behind the Net link one more time, because it’s worth the view.
Here we are now...entertain us.
That big pink mountain on the left side of the graph showing faceoffs in the Dzone do tell a story. Once more – Rod may become the first coach entirely focused on winning faceoffs. If anyone is up to it, it would be him
Twitter @HMof2
by Carolyn Christians on Sep 27, 2010 8:39 AM EDT up reply actions
More from Behind the Net
From JussiJuice’s post above:
Unfortunately I believe that Staal will never actually be able to compete with other true #1 Centers in the faceoff circle. It sucks as a difference from 45% to 55% FO wins can literally mean hundreds of possessions and offensive opportunities… But I really don’t think he is going to magically become a 50% guy.
His 17 wins out of 40 faceoff’s taken to date (42.5%) are even below your range, but for justification of your point about increased faceoff wins leading directly to goals, from Behind the Net:
If a team improves its face-off winning percentage in the offensive zone from 50% to 60% (say, by signing Yanic Perreault, assuming all other things are equal), it can expect, on average, to improve its goal differential by 25 goals over the course of the season.
Also, this:
A defensive zone, even strength faceoff loss is equivalent to being on the PK for 15 seconds.
Our past total dependence on Brind’Amour winning those critical draws for us is going to continue to be a problem until at least stabilized at the 50/50 level.
Here we are now...entertain us.
I wonder if Maurice knows how to read stats ? I cant help but feel if the Canes had scored more than 2 goals against Hotlanta, I might have gotten to see O’Sullivan in Charlotte to start the season….Might yet.
Kinda off-topic but tangential to the conversation, Austin Levi was one of the players released early to his junior team. HM tweeted a really nice article about him that was published from Hockey’s Future:
Austin Levi embraces leadership role for Plymouth Whalers
Of note, and something we don’t see reported very often, were Austin’s comments about Joni and his influence during camp. I have to admit it surprised me a little, and in a positive way!
Levi explained that there was one particular Hurricane he paid particular attention to and from whom he hopes to apply his teachings to his game.
"There was Joni Pitkanen — he’s one of the greatest defencemen that I’ve ever had the opportunity to play with," Levi said. "He was a very good influence on me and it was a great experience to get to play with him and practice with him — to see how he does thing and how simple he makes the game.
"He just does everything so simply and it works out well for him — he’s just a great defenceman."
Phoblographer and Finn Aficionado
SISU
I agree that E Staal will likely never be a good face-off guy, which is why I long have spouted that he should at some point be moved to wing. He is a goal scorer, and getting better defensively as a center, but two marks of a good center are performance in the circle and being able to set up his linemates.
For the here and now he’s the teams #1 center. Because of that I’d like to see a top line of
Staal/ O’Sullivan/ Jokenin
My reasoning is that Jussi is a better face-off guy who can win one with the top line out there, and both Staal and Jussi are reliable enough to make up for O’Sullivan’s possible lack of defensive awareness. This leaves a gaping hole at 3rd line Center.
I’d like to see eithe Dalpe or LaRose take that spot. Also the idea of bringing in Lil Preems is not a bad thought.
Bottom line is this. Let this be the rebuilding ( or semi rebuilding) year this had the promise to be.
Let Dalpe run with the 3rd line center spot. Let Rosie take a 4th line center spot. Fill in the rest as desired. That would give us 4 lines that could roll anytime.
Regarding Boychuk.
I wonder if he was caught off guard by the amount of competition for spots this summer.
As of the end of last season he was our best young player expected to make the jump, with Dalpe a “growing concern”. I am not saying he’s pouting or was over- confident about a roster spot, but maybe the influx of good young players shifted his perspective. Either way he’ll be a good player for this team, sooner or soon. There will be chances all season if he doesn’t stick now.
Boychuk really needs to step up his game. Bowman is looking better than him at this point, which pushes him way down the depth chart. One of the reasons I wouldn’t be totally against trading him if we could get value-for-value in a position we need (Playmaking Center, D prospect, or faceoff specialist) such as in the Ladd-for-Ruutu trade.
We are loaded with offensive prospects and Boychuk still has plenty of value. There are teams, like LA for example, with a boatload of D prospects and little top-flight forward talent. Maybe something like a Boychuk for Thomas Hickey (who hasn’t lived up to expectations in LA as well) trade or Boychuk for Colten Teubert + a pick wouldn’t be so bad on either end.
Should have seen the one that got away...
…or Boychuk for Colten Teubert + a pick wouldn’t be so bad on either end
Here’s a spot of irony for you.
In 2008, right before we selected Zac Boychuk 14th overall, Colten Teubert went off the board to LA in the 13th overall slot.
Teubert was the rumored target of the ill-fated Ray Whitney trade, and here you are mentioning him again.
I have always had the feeling that Teubert was really the org’s target that draft day in 2008, and he got away.
Would be interesting if the two orgs end up trading the picks they made that day.
Here we are now...entertain us.
The line of O’Sullivan-Staal-Jokinen is probably the best 1st line we could do out of the gate. Staal and Jussi would help make up for Sully’s defensive shortcomings.
I agree with you 100%. Let this be a rebuilding year! Yeah, we’ll go through some difficult situations, but the kids will learn from it.
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I think I agree with you on that 1st line. We need one line that can be counted on to score goals. That would excuse Cole and Sammy. Staal and JJ seemed to play well together last year.
I understand the attraction of JJ as 3rd center for ‘balance’. But 4 lines getting shutout isn’t the ‘balance’ we need.
by drifterscape on Sep 27, 2010 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
<I understand the attraction of JJ as 3rd center for ‘balance’. But 4 lines getting shutout isn’t the ‘balance’ we need.>
Agreed! If we ( or most teams) can have one line that is dangerous then it takes the heat off the other lines and our other lines get better match ups – as we all know around here. What use is it to have your marque player and perennial top scorer lose possession of the puck on a face-off 60% of the time. Those numbers were quite well explained further up the thread. Jussi taking Staal’s face-offs gives the line more puck possession. I’d rather the top scorers get the puck more than my 3rd line, generally speaking.
Coaching to the Players Strengths While Molding Players to Fit the System
Matt Karash at Hockey Buzz had a very interesting article on the Hurricanes. Here’s the link:
He made an insightful observation, I thought:
“I think the personnel for this team could present a real good test for Coach Paul Maurice’s ability to build a team based on the personnel he has rather than trying to mold players into a certain type of system/style of play. I will write a blog on this within the next few days.”
Every coach has to balance the zeal for a specific playing style with a realistic appraisal of the particular strengths of the team he has. A coach such as Dean Smith was a genius at molding players to work within his system while still keeping flexibility within the system for the player. I agree with Matt Karash that one of the challenges for the Hurricanes coaches is to find a happy medium between molding the younger players to work within Hurricanes hockey while keeping their spontaneity and enthusiasm intact. It’s not a simple task with easy solutions; but great coaches have the ability to find that zone of comfort for their players. As fans, we will know it when we see it. We will also be able to tell relatively quickly if the coaches are taking round pegs and pounding them into square holes. Of course some times players begin a season believing they are a round peg only to find to their surprise and the coaches joy that in fact they are a square hole. In other words, young players can discover another element to their game that they didn’t realize they had. O’Sullivan, for example, may come to love playing hard-nosed, responsible defense and may find he can create turnovers that lead to goals without sacrificing his amazing offensive talent. Bowman has transformed his game into a two-way, hitting game and he seems much improved already over last season (and he did quite well last season).
I believe this is going to be a major factor of this season. Can Mo adjust his style to compliment the talent or will he force the players to adapt to his system?
I personal feel that Mo is not the right man for the job. I think his defensive only system will hurt the kids overall development and lead to “not as exciting” hockey. I do believe that Lavi system was a little reckless, but the blend of those two systems was nice. I would like a coach that has a happy medium type of system. I believe that will lead to more entertaining hockey and better overall development of our young players.
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