Five Reasons Why Carolina Will — And Won’t — Be This Year’s Avalanche
by Cory Lavalette on Sep 7, 2010 4:00 PM EDT
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The 2010-11 Carolina Hurricanes are one of the upcoming season’s biggest question marks. Some think the up-and-down franchise will bounce back from a disappointing 2009-10 and return to the postseason, while others see the roster turnover and abundant unproven youth as a sign that the Canes will be rebuilding toward 2011-12.
Last season, the Colorado Avalance emerged from the depths of the NHL to make the postseason, shocking all the pundits and proving that the post-lockout NHL is as unpredictable as any time in league history. Here are five reasons the Hurricanes will go from cellar-dweller to contender — and five more why they won't.
Pretender To Contender
1. New Leadership — No one denies how great a player Joe Sakic was, but the long-time captain retired prior to last season and veteran Adam Foote took over the reins. In Carolina, the Canes replaced Rod Brind'Amour — nearly as iconic in Raleigh as Sakic is in Denver — with Eric Staal late in the season, and both the team and Staal were much improved. The Hurricanes, under Staal's leadership right from training camp, could very well jump out of the gates and continue playing at the pace they did once No. 12 was given the C.
2. Better Goaltending — After a terrible 2009-10, the Avalanche got a boost in net by newcomer Craig Anderson. Peter Budaj, who struggled the year before along with Andrew Raycroft, proved a suitable backup and Colorado roared out of the gates to start the year. Carolina's netminding was suspect last season, mostly due to injuries to Cam Ward and a revolving crease that saw Michael Leighton, Manny Legace and Justin Peters perform admirably but not spectacularly. Ward is a world-class goalie who, when healthy, can be as good as last year's Vezina winner, Ryan Miller. Don't count on Ward struggling in back-to-back seasons
3. Influx of Youth — Colorado benefited from the addition of several young, impact players in 2009-10. Matt Duchene, Ryan O`Reilly, T.J. Galiardi, Ryan Wilson and Brandon Yip were all rookies last season and were huge contributors to the Avs. First-round pick Jeff Skinner isn't a lock to make the Canes — like Duchene last year — but if he does, the sniper could add a much-needed boost on offense. Zac Dalpe, Riley Nash, Drayson Bowman and Jamie McBain could all contribute as much, or more, than the Avalanche's rookies last year.
4. Sophomore Breakout — Chris Stewart was a big part of the Avalanche's success last year. The second-year NHLer had 28 goals and 36 assists in 2009-10, a 45-point increase on the previous season that made him the Avs’ No. 2 scorer. Zach Boychuk was underwhelming in a 31-game stint in Carolina last year, managing just nine points (three goals, six assists) in his first significant NHL action. But Boychuk's talent in undeniable, and if he can find space — and confidence — he could be a deadly weapon for the Canes and have a Stewart-like scoring impact.
5. Divisional Help — Outside of the Canucks, the Northwest Division has been a mishmash of mediocrity and underachieving. Colorado actually had a losing record against the Northwest (10-11-3), but the rest of the division's struggles against the remainder of the league opened the door for the Avs to finish second in the Northwest and get the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference. In the Southeast, Washington is the undisputed favorite but the other four teams are all wild cards. If Carolina can either feast on those teams or outperform them in games outside of the Southeast, they should be in the mix for the postseason.
Rebuilding Takes Time
1. Coaching — Paul Maurice has proven he can win in the NHL — and in Carolina — but Colorado benefited from having a new voice behind the bench last season in Joe Sacco. That doesn't mean Maurice is incapable of turning around the Canes — he's done it before — but there will likely be few surprises from him when camp opens.
2. Defense On The Blueline — While Joni Pitkanen and Joe Corvo are underrated defenders, the Hurricanes boast only one proven stay-at-home defenseman in Tim Gleason. Brett Carson is definitely defense-first, but the second-year NHLer is far from a shutdown blueliner this early in his career, plus he will be in a battle for a roster spot. The Canes have a wealth of offensive potential, but you have to wonder how well they will be able to help Ward in their own end. By comparison, the Avs had veterans Foote and Scott Hannan leading the way last year.
3. Coming Out Of The Gate — Colorado was the hottest team to start 2009-10, whereas Carolina was arguably the worst. Things won't be easier for Carolina this year with the season starting overseas in Finland and a total of seven games away from the RBC Center before they finally play on home ice Oct. 27. Of those seven games, just two — both against Minnesota in Finland — come against a team that failed to make the postseason last year. Ottawa, Vancouver, San Jose, Los Angeles and Phoenix host the Canes in October and could potentially ruin the season's first month for Carolina.
4. PK Might Not Be OK — Colorado got great contributions from rookies Galiardi and O'Reilly on the penalty kill, and coupled with veterans like Foote and Hannan they were able to stay afloat on the PK at 80.2 percent (21st in the league). While that's nothing to call home about, Carolina finished 19th (80.6) in 2009-10 and has subtracted shorthanded minute munchers like Brind'Amour, Nic Wallin, Matt Cullen and Aaron Ward. Asking Carolina to improve on a 19th place finish — or even maintain it — is a tall task.
5. Budget Crisis — Carolina GM Jim Rutherford has been told to keep the team's salaries in check until owner Peter Karmanos can find a new partner to invest in the team. That means the team should hover around the mid- to high-$40 million. Karmanos has been willing to spend when Rutherford has expressed that the team has a chance — see 2005-06 — but with youth on the menu and expectations relatively low, it's likely Carolina will have to win with what they have.
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Great pic of Skinner!
"The increase in pain is way beyond what you would expect a person to play with," said coach Paul Maurice. "Unfortunately it’s even beyond what Tim Gleason can play with, because he can play with just about anything."
Looks like Mark Wahlberg in that pic. :P
"...they will not force us...they will stop degrading us...they will not control us...we will be victorious..."
Mah blog.
No, but when you make remarks like that you must also refer to him as Sk8ter boi.
Phoblographer and Finn Aficionado
SISU
by Jamie Kellner on Sep 7, 2010 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m just throwing this out there, but perhaps we need to work on getting @Sk8terboi on Twitter because if there is a more perfect Twitter handle out there, I have yet to find it.
"What Carolina really has going for them is Brandon Sutter. When that kid first showed up, he looked like a skinny little thing that wouldn’t last two weeks. But he’s turned into a real star."
I don’t think you’re old enough to be a cougar so you have nothing to worry about.
"The increase in pain is way beyond what you would expect a person to play with," said coach Paul Maurice. "Unfortunately it’s even beyond what Tim Gleason can play with, because he can play with just about anything."
Great topic and a decent comparison. I think we probably have a better roster than Colorado did last year. Why it’s hard to predict how Carolina will do is we don’t know what kind of contributions we’ll get from the young players, which was pivotal for Colorado last year, O’Reilly & Duchene were huge for them in the 1st few months. Obviously you can’t say enough about the 1st road trip, but late November & early December seem to be the toughest time for rookies because you’re kind of in the middle and can’t see the finish line yet, so the # of games and travel tend wear down the rookies.
Carolina would be lucky to have the deep roster Colorado had last year. Would almost need all the young guys to play well above their heads to match the team Colorado iced (and that was with Jones and Yip out for most of the year). This will be a great year to grow as a team but next season is more likely to be when Carolina has a chance to become a real contender… That is if ownership puts more money I to the team. Looking forward to seeing what the Canes do this year.
Depth we got...
If there’s anything this team has, it’s (prospect) depth! we don’t know which prospect(s) will
peform the best, but we have many candidates to throw at the problem!!! me-thinks we may have a player, or two, who will shine like the 1st year of cole’s career!
needless to say, training camp will be “way cool”, and fascinating, eh?!!
Colorado had insane shooting% and great goaltending. It’ll be mighty tough for anyone to replicate that—not because Colorado had such a star-laden roster (they didn’t), but because they were pretty heavily outshot all season but managed to put in their own at an uncharacteristically high rate.
by red army line on Sep 8, 2010 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
i agree Bob....But...
Are the Canes as they stand now on paper at least that poor due to the lack of real experience & TOI ? Or am i just being a paranoid old grouchy fan who feels that we ought to wait a week into the 10-11 season before we fans start chanting Mo must go before we can make any honest judgement calls…as we here all know the final choices of who plays & stays fall on the shoulders of Mo & Ron…but rest assured i got all my fingers crossed, all the magic juu juu charms & Celtic druids working overtime…so that opening road trip will be a good one and a blessing for the canes… gee do ya think 12 druids will be enough?? how about several monks from Nepal …couldn’t hurt right ???
thanks for putting up with me…on this…i has to admit this was a good article…:)
And if it Aint Hockey,It Aint Nothin !!
That Checkers 3rd Sweater ROCKS !!!
"Pretender to Contender" comments
1. New Leadership – Although our “new Captain” event was last season instead of the beginning of the season, like Colorado’s, the difference in the Canes locker room this season is the final house cleaning of the Cup team remnants.
Who didn’t disappear at the deadline was shed over the summer with Whitney not being re-signed and Brind’Amour’s retirement, so now only Ward and Staal (who were in their first and second NHL seasons respectively when the Cup was won) are still around.
2. Better Goaltending – Although I don’t believe Justin Peters is going to duplicate Craig Anderson’s impact, he is a solid backup and we will have better goaltending just from Cam being healthy and having another year under Barasso’s tutelage. I also like the Pilates and Hot Yoga focus on the core as a means of keeping our goalies intact.
3. Influx of Youth – Boy, have we got that in spades. Plus, I’m not convinced that JR is through with this season’s team just yet. All that hunger has to be good for something.
4. Sophomore Breakout – Honestly, Boychuk is due. There’s nowhere to go but up. Add in Sutter’s and McBain’s continued development, and I believe we can cover Whitney’s missing points.
5. Divisional Help – This season should heat up some of our divisional rivalries, which could stand some heating up, in my opinion. Florida’s only got a spoiler role, but the sports hate is there. It’s Atlanta and really Tampa that are really the head-to-head matchups to mark on the calendar, as those two teams have to be behind us in points for us to make it into the post-season.
And, if our reward for making the playoffs is a series with the Caps….well, that’s the stuff of real rivalries: intra-divisional playoff series.
Here we are now...entertain us.
"Rebuilding Takes Time" comments
1. Coaching – Yes, same ‘ole Mo. But, maybe continuity is what we need this season. I’m not totally convinced we’re seeing nothing but Mo, anyway. This actually feels a bit more like top-down management where the “org” has decided what style we’re playing.
Jeff Daniels has been imprinting this style of play on the prospects. Nearly all of the headstrong vets are gone. Let’s just see what we have and whether it works or not.
So, no change in coaching may be just what we need…at least for this season.
2. Defense on the Blueline – No, we don’t have the veteran defensive defensemen upon which to draw (other than “how did I suddenly end up being one of the veterans?” Gleason, that is). But, we do have Mo’s “total defense” system (see above) running hopefully as he (or someone) envisioned it should.
3. Coming Out of the Gate – With our road schedule I doubt we have an Avalanche start. But slow and steady wins the race, which this version of the team may have learned. 1.1 points a game will get us there.
4. PK Might Not Be OK – I do believe we can field some credible PK units, despite the loss of veterans. Again, the Mo system of defense breeds lots of potential PK’ers. We’ll figure out something that should work. However, we do need to get to the point where (PP%+PK%) > 1.0, unlike last season’s total.
5. Budget Crisis – I’m not convinced that JR is done with the makeup of this team. By the time the December “GM Panic” and the trade deadline seasons close, we could see some parts exchanged for missing pieces with the salary budget maintained.
Sure, we’d be getting a lot more discussion among the pundits with a $5M winger on Staal’s line and a stud D-man as a component of the top 4. But, give us a couple of seasons and we’ll get there the hard way.
Here we are now...entertain us.
The thing that concerns me about the PK is who we are going to use at the center position. Staal and Sutter are going to see a good amount of even strength time, a lot of PP, and probably a good amount of PK. Those two guys could get extremely worn down as the season marches along.
I would really like to see someone step up to take Staal’s role on the PK, only use him occasionally in that situation. I would also like to see someone be able to center the 2nd PP unit other than Sutter. I would like to see Sutter on the PP every once in a while, but I want him concentrating more on his PK duties (where I think he is needed more).
Triple Gold Juice - It's Potent and Guaranteed to Help You Score!
Sutter will def. be out there. As for the No. 2 PK center, it depends who wins the Nos. 3 & 4 jobs — in fact, might be a huge part of determining who wins those jobs. That’s why i like Dodge as a dark horse No. 4 center:
good faceoff guy, smart in his own end and can kill on the PK.
by Cory Lavalette on Sep 8, 2010 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree that I’d like to get Staal out of this role.
He’s not that great, for one thing, and his minutes are better spent elsewhere.
So, my solution is to move Sutter to first unit PK as the center.
And then use Nick Dodge, with his defensive responsibility and faceoff prowess (led the Rats last season) as our fourth line center and second unit PK center.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Copycat.
I actually like Staal on the PK b/c of his reach covering the point men, plus he can create shorthanded opp. Just think he needs to be on the wing to be effective. And even if he does play some PK wing, I don’t think it should be a full-time role for him. Think Sutter, LaRose, Dwyer and TK can all handle it. Throw in another center (Dodge? Nash?) and Staal on occasion and you have a decent rotation.
by Cory Lavalette on Sep 8, 2010 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t mind having Staal on the PK, I just don’t want him out there for a minute each time. I think the Canes should start the PK with Sutter-TK, then move to Dwyer-Tlusty or Nash-Dwyer (or maybe Dodge in there depending on the roster), then in the final seconds when the PK can get a little more aggressive; then put Staal-Chad out there. So when the PK is killed, we have our best offensive player out there ready to attack.
On the PP; I think the Canes should start with Ruutu-Jussi-Staal and Pits-Babs on the 1st PP unit. Maybe rotate McBain in Babs position every once in a while. On the 2nd PP unit, my hope is someone can take the center spot so Sutter can rest some. Have something like Boychuk-Dalpe-Cole with McBain-Corvo on the backend. You could rotate Sammy into Boychuk’s spot if he’s playing well.
Triple Gold Juice - It's Potent and Guaranteed to Help You Score!
by PackPride17 on Sep 8, 2010 6:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
That’s not a bad plan, especially closing the penalty kill with Staal instead of opening with him out there.
I also like the distribution of the D-men on the PP, pairing a trigger shot (Corvo/Babchuk) with someone that can make the quick decision as to whether to shoot or pass when pressed (Pitkanen/McBain), as well as possessing a shot from the blue line.
We may or may not have the luxury of being able to rest Sutter on the PK. Someone else is going to have to step up in the faceoff department for this to happen.
Here we are now...entertain us.
1. Coaching — We let a guy go who took his new team to the finals, our guy tanked with a full season. ’Nuff said.
2. Defense on the Blueline — I am convinced Pitkanen will be shopped for a package deal sooner than later. Get a young veteran stay-at-home defenseman and a winger to help out Staal, and we don’t need to worry about Pitkanen’s contract situation which we won’t be able to afford. Besides all that, he will be playing his balls off to impress other teams, so while he’s here he will be a beast. Defense vastly improved over last year overall.
3. Coming Out of the Gate — I love this team, but Dear Lord, that travel overseas and schedule with all the new faces makes for a near impossible fast start.
4. PK Might Not Be OK — I actually think with more McBain and Babchuck we will improve there, not so worried.
5. Budget Crisis — JR will need to keep some money aside should — God forbid — Cam’s back be more of a serious situation than initially thought. We may have to deal for a veteran goaltender if he’s unable to play up to his level.
I don’t believe we will see either of Babchuk or McBain on the penalty kill, so you must have been reading “PK” as power play, instead.
Babchuk does provide one more trigger shot from the blue line, while McBain is not only a trigger man, but also a playmaker, too.
In fact, hopefully we have ourselves a legit powerplay quarterback in McBain.
Here we are now...entertain us.
I think we’ll see McBain on the PK this season, he’ll obviously be on the second unit and won’t see a lot of minutes in this role, but I suspect they’ll want penalty killing to be part of his game. You can’t be a top 4 dman and not kill penalties. McBain and the rest of dman should be pretty good on the PP, my concern is who’s going to play the half-wall on the PP and how effective are they going to be.
You know, I think you’re right. As I look at the candidates for PK duty from the D-men, there’s little from which to choose.
Gleason and Corvo can kill penalties, with Corvo serving double duty on both special teams.
Maybe Carson and McBain for the second PK unit? Certainly not Joni or probably Babchuk.
McBain maturing as a two-way special team player and possible powerplay quarterback certainly starts him down the path of performing a near-Lidstrom role for us.
Here we are now...entertain us.
I think that’s how they should mold him, my fear is if they don’t give him PK time it leads him down the path to becoming somewhat one-dimension.
Pitkanen will be out there ahead of McBain, I’d guess. They’ll want to divvy out the even strength and PP minutes more evenly, and since Joni can handle a big workload, he could play on PP and PK and probably cut down on his ES minutes a little.
by Cory Lavalette on Sep 8, 2010 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Yikes! Hmmm. Okay. Just having qualms envisioning Joni on PK, but I guess he has served duty there before, and it would be second-unit duty.
Still, I’m now making my litmus test as to whether or not it’s Mo’s call entirely, or the brain trust (Rowe/Wesley/Francis) has input, by seeing just who is sent over the boards on the second PK unit.
If the org has input, McBain should be there, paired perhaps with Carson.
If it’s Mo only, it will be Carson and Harrison…and to heck with player development (whatever that is). :-D
Here we are now...entertain us.
3. Coming Out of the Gate — I love this team, but Dear Lord, that travel overseas and schedule with all the new faces makes for a near impossible fast start.
But this could actually be a good thing. One thing I think was missing from last season was the annual team building even that Laviolette used to do. That early schedule is a beast, no doubt, but it could also be the time the team gels and unites.
Don't trust me. I have psychological issues.
Huh??
To me this idea of trading Joni is backwards thinking! I’ll explain… We gave Staal and Ward big/ long contracts. WHY? DUH!! …they are STARS!!! why is it any different to do the same thing with Joni? he’s clearly a star, young, can play BIG MINUTES is good on both ends of the ice…yeah we really need to get rid of him…? (sarcasm) PAY HIM BIG AND KEEP HIM …get cheap with someone we don’t need!!!
It’s an issue of budget more than anything else. If the payroll next year is similar to the payroll this year that means there will be limited options. JR won’t trade Staal or Ward to keep Joni. That means it’s going to be very difficult getting Joni under contract and fitting that in to a $45 million dollar budget. No one is wanting to trade Joni because he isn’t very good. The fear is that Joni will be offered more money than the Canes can compete with and will be gone in the off-season and the team will get nothing in return.
That said, someone, Maybe LTD, I cannot remember who, did an exercise looking at who will be a UFA/gone next season and how they could be replaced by younger players and the team could potentially keep Pitkanen. I don’t think Corvo had re-signed at the time, but I don’t think that will have much of an impact on the analysis. It is possible to re-sign Pitkanen and stay around $45 million in payroll and field a full team, but it’s tight. It also relies very heavily on young players which may not make it the most competitive team possible.
It’s a capped league now and the owner is actively keeping salary down to try to sell part of the team. These factors will impact player signings. These are the realities people are looking at when they talk about trading Pitkanen and/or Babchuk. There isn’t an infinite amount of resources so decisions have to be made on how the limited resources get spread around. Personally I’d prefer to keep Joni, but I definitely see trading him as a possibility and depending on what the Canes could get for him could easily sway my mind.
Chicago has a strong offense still, but could use some help on D, especially if it looks like they’ll have to play Vancouver in the playoffs yet again. What could Joni conceivably be worth to Chicago come the deadline? What about LA, who has the cap room to acquire Joni and some wholes on the blue line. What if they start off hot and look like they can take the Pacific (which isn’t that far out of the question given the Sharks loss of Nabokov)? If the Kings were willing to give up Tuebert and a second for Whitney what would they be willing to part with to acquire Joni for the stretch run and possibly sign him long term? What if it’s Tuebert and a first and a third?
Fact is the team has yet to start negotiating with Joni, something they had done with Staal or Ward. By the time Staal and Ward were entering the last year of their contracts they had signed extensions. The org knows what they have in Joni and has targeted him for quite some time. If he was irreplaceable he’d be signed to a contract extension already. Again, no one wants to just get rid of Joni, but they are acknowledging the situation at hand which may force the Canes to trade him.
Don't trust me. I have psychological issues.
CL,
There is definitely debate on whether Joni is going to resign or not with the Canes. I feel that Joni is a need for the Canes right now. He is currently our only real playmaker and being on the backend is a huge plus. There will be teams that will offer him BIG money if he is allowed to hit the market. But I don’t think Chicago or LA would be one of those teams. Chicago still has limited cap space and I think they would rather spend that type of money on resigning Seabrook before adding another offensive defenseman to their blueline. Where would Joni really fit on Chicago? I guess he could play with Keith if Seabrook is gone, but really; who is going to be cheaper – Seabrook or Joni? LA also has a lot of young offensive defenseman. If they were interested in anybody on Carolina’s blueline, it would be Timmy. Vancouver is a possiblity, but they are also a little cap strapped to add him.
Triple Gold Juice - It's Potent and Guaranteed to Help You Score!
Doesn’t Vancouver have 17 blue liners under contract right now? I think Chicago is more of a deadline deal potential. Chicago moved Barker out at the deadline to bring in the players they wanted. I’m not sure if they’ll do that again, but it’s a possibility. Bowman the younger got a lot of picks and prospects for his traded players and he may be willing to part with some if he again looks like he has a champion.
I think LA is a very likely destination. I know there guys under contract and in the system, but I can also see LA easily parting with a young player to bring in the vet Joni and sign him long term.
With all that said, we have to remember that it was Washington that acquired Corvo at the deadline. Who knows where Joni may end up if he leaves. His cap hit is $4 million this year and will be about $1 million come the trade deadline.
Like I said I still hope they keep Joni. I’m not sure if it will happen but I do hope so.
Don't trust me. I have psychological issues.
Both Cam and Eric had their extensions announced in September, before the season began.
That’s JR’s way and he also claims he doesn’t negotiate extensions during the season.
Could be the potential sale of the deceased partner’s share is altering the normal pattern of contract negotiations. But there haven’t been any other signs of such an impact.
It’s hard to see us getting into a bidding war in the summer UFA season and I also don’t see how a responsible GM can let an asset like that walk out the door without preserving its value in the form of a deadline trade.
Here we are now...entertain us.
I am definitely in the camp that says JR will find a way to keep Joni, I don’t think JR has any intention of getting rid of him. I probably hypothesized about some kind of sisu-related situation where Joni is willing to take a [small] home team discount to stay here, but I didn’t do any detailed analysis on it as it relates to actual cap situation or salary or other re-signings. Didn’t want to give anyone a false impression that I do real work around here or anything like that.
Phoblographer and Finn Aficionado
SISU
by Jamie Kellner on Sep 9, 2010 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Do you remember the analysis that I was talking about? Someone looked at who was leaving after this season and showed that Joni could be signed to a reasonable deal (high $5 million per) and it could still fit within the budget. Maybe I’ll search for it or try to reproduce it.
Don't trust me. I have psychological issues.
As I recall, the reasoning was that Cole ($3M) and Samsonov ($2.8M) would not be re-signed, freeing up $5.8M.
However, I don’t believe anyone then tried to reason through just how that $5.8M “savings” would be allocated.
First in line is Brandon Sutter, coming off his very affordable $0.875M entry deal. Second in line will be Jiri Tlusty, who is also coming off his $0.5M entry deal.
Then we’ll need to pay the replacements for Cole and Samsonov, who will easily burn a combined $1.3M or so between the two of them, assuming they are entry-level contract players…who do not have or earn any bonuses, that is.
And, for the big hit, we’ll probably need to sign Jeff Skinner, who may only “make” under $1M in entry level salary, but surely will get some bonuses for his signature thrown into the deal. Taylor Hall has $3.75M in bonuses lurking in his entry deal, so there’s the top end of what it may take.
And, for the final kicker, Ward’s contract escalates from $5M to $6.3M in ‘11-’12.
So, that $5.8M “savings” from not re-signing Cole and Samsonov may be largely spoken for already.
Here we are now...entertain us.
I do remember the discussion, I think the post you’re referring to is here by PackPride: Trade Pitkanen FanPost
Phoblographer and Finn Aficionado
SISU
by Jamie Kellner on Sep 9, 2010 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Totally it, and you are totally awesome for finding it!!!
For those wondering, here is PackPride17s post about the salary for next season.
Cole not resigned ($3M salary/$2.9M cap hit saved). Samsonov not resigned ($2.8M salary/$2.533M cap hit saved). LaRose probably not resigned or signed for much less ($1.9M salary/$1.7M cap hit saved). Kaberle’s buyout comes off the books ($733K saved). That’s $8.433M in salary and $7.866 in cap hit that won’t be on the 2011/2012 books.
Jussi will probably be tendered an offer, but it will not be above $3M (at least not from the Canes). I really like him, but last season was a career year, he will probably come down a little. The Canes will probably offer him something like Erik Cole is making. Probably $2.8M to $3M.
Sutter will probably be inked to a 3 year extension (to take him through restricted free agency) in the neighborhood of $3M per.
Boychuk, Tlusty, Bowman, Osala, and Sanguinetti would probably only be offered the minimum raises unless they have a breakout year or something. So their raises would amount to around or less $1M combined. If some other team uses an offer sheet, then they could get more or we would get draft picks. But as we have seen, offer sheets are not used that often.
I think JR would offer Joni in the $5.5M per season range. So that would be a $1M increase. We need Joni because he is currently the only playmaking offensive defenseman. The other guys are more shooters than passers. And if they resigned Corvo to trade Joni, this organization is doomed. They are not comparable players in the least.
So recap; $8.4M comes off the books with 3 players and a buyout. Jussi, Sutter, and the kids get around $4.5M in raises. Joni gets a $1.5M raise. And we end up with $2.4M to pocket or put toward another player.
Still a few holes, but remember the cap floor will probably go up by $3 million next season (the players have the right to raise the cap by 5% a year which is about $3 which means the cap floor goes up $3). That means the team will have to spend at least $47 worth of salary cap space next season.
Don't trust me. I have psychological issues.
Two major missing pieces that eat up the perceived “extra” salary budget in the above analysis are Cam Ward’s scheduled $1.3M raise and the potential performance bonus money that will be a component of Skinner’s rookie contract in ‘11-’12 (assuming that he’s returned to juniors this season).
However, those salary assumptions look reasonable.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Even if those eat up the 2.4$m there is still the cap raise to factor in. Also, I wonder if for the purposes of internal budgeting if the Canes will worry about the Skinner bonuses. Those will be paid the following season, so that may be something for the 2012-13 season and not the 11-12.
This is sort of splitting hairs though. No matter how you slice it if the Canes don’t increase their internal budget next season it’s going to be hard to re-sign Joni.
Don't trust me. I have psychological issues.
I’m not even convinced it’s entirely a budget issue.
Pitkanen does have that missing dimension that is expected out of the elite crowd, and yet he probably will be compensated equally if he truly tests the market. Some desperate GM will throw stupid money at him.
But, on top of the money issue, he’s a difficult pairing with some disasters among the candidates we’ve tried at times and even makes the forwards a bit unsettled with the “is he going?” question always in their mind (Hint: yes, he is :-D).
I think our Ontario Mafia crowd is eyeing the prospects for the long term D-plan, moreso than scheming how to lock down Pitkanen for the long haul as a core piece.
Plus, there’s a lot of value there that could be captured at the deadline. First/second rounder and a prospect, perhaps.
Then if Joni truly wants back here over the summer, there’s a price at which he would easily be re-hired, no doubt.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Pitkanen as a Core Team Member
LTD, I agree with you. I think Jim Rutherford spent too many years trying to get Pitkanen not to have a plan to keep him. Jim Rutherford just doesn’t send away a 30 minute a game, elite player, where the player is affordable. Expensive players, such as Ward and Staal, are also affordable. One can reasonably argue it is not affordable to send Pitkanen away.
Then why do we not see him already signed to an extension, as was Cam and Eric in September, before the season begins, if he’s to equally be a “core member”?
I’m not even convinced that he is a core member. What irreplaceable skill does Joni have that must be retained, no matter what the cost?
I can guarantee you that JR will not get into a bidding war for him next summer, so just how do you see him being retained?
When is this contract to be negotiated and how does it fit into the ‘11-’12 and beyond salary budget?
I would love to hear your case, because those that believe he will not be extended have certainly made theirs.
Seems that all we are hearing otherwise is a leap of faith statement that somehow the deal will get done with no details as to how it will get done.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Then why do we not see him already signed to an extension, as was Cam and Eric in September, before the season begins
To me this is the most telling fact of the Hurricanes-Pitkanen relationship. Whatever the cause, be it the Canes wanting to leave options open while a new investor is found or if the org doesn’t believe Joni is a core team member, the fact is Joni is not only not signed to an extension but there is not even talk of discussions taking place. JR mentioned deals being done with Ward and Staal while the process was on-going, so I don’t know why he would clam up now if there were discussions with Joni.
I still hope Joni can be retained, something like a 5 year 28 Million deal is nice, personally I’d go 8 years $40 million. Joni will be 27 on 9/19 (I honestly did not know he and I shared a birthday until just now). An 8 year deal would kick in when he hits 28 and carry him through until he’s 35. 8 years ad $40 bring the cap hit down to $5 from the $5.6 of the 5 year $28 million. I think the team is more likely to go with the 5 year routes as that puts him as a UFA the same year as Cam and Staal.
Either way, every day Joni isn’t signed to an extension is one day closer to him being a UFA. The longer JR waits the easier it is for Joni to decide to test the waters. As JR learned with Whitney, he can’t assume that just because a player wants to stay in Carolina that he will do so at the price that makes the Hurricanes happy.
Don't trust me. I have psychological issues.
I would personally not care to see Joni tied to such a long term contract with us, and remember that no current Canes contract extends beyond the CBA expiration date other than Cam’s and Eric’s (something JR made a point of emphasis when discussing the CBA expiration the other day).
To me, he’s missing a dimension to earn the amount of money he will probably attract from others, needing to get either a bit more shot-happy and/or physical.
Plus, as you mentioned, JR did openly talk about his ongoing negotiations over the summer when signing Eric and Cam to their extensions, stating that he wanted to get them done before the season began.
I’ve not even heard kissing noises tossed Joni’s way.
Here we are now...entertain us.
I’m a bit leery of the 8 year myself, just thought it worked well for the cap and that it was something I thought Joni would be willing to take. I think you’re right about him missing a dimension, but I don’t think that will prevent the market for him being in the 5.5 million per year range. I think long term the team can replace him, I just worry what next season will be like without Joni. Would that end up being a potentially second wasted year?
Don't trust me. I have psychological issues.
That is a legitimate concern, that just as the salary budget is potentially “holding us back” this year by withholding a critical piece or two, that loss of a big defensive/offensive piece like Joni could lessen the apogee of where ‘11-’12 could go.
There is certainly potentially an awkward period until the prospects engage, perhaps a season or two later.
But, just as JR found us the Joni grapevine upon which to swing, don’t discount his ability to land another sweet RFA D-man with a season or two left on his contract as a component of the trades that will occur as the season unfolds.
Just another D-man vine upon which to swing while we wait for the next Cup team to gel.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Instead, I believe that Corvo’s two-year deal was Pitkanen insurance, bridging us over ‘11-’12 until McBain could assume the role…assuming he’s not ready to do so next season.
So, in ‘11-’12:
Corvo – Gleason
Sanquinetti – McBain
Borer – Carson (?)
plus any D-men prospects gained from the Babchuk/Pitkanen/Cole/Samsonov trade deadline deals
And, in ‘12-’13:
Gleason – McBain
Faulk – Dumoulin
Sanguinetti – Carson/Borer/Alt/Lawson
plus D-men prospects from Babchuk/Pitkanen/Cole/Samsonov trade deadline deals
Here we are now...entertain us.
I’m not as worried about the start of the season either, for the team-building reasons C-Leaguer mentions, and also because I do believe the players feel they have something to prove, both the vets and the guys who will be fighting for roster spots.
This is my second year watching Camp Brind’Amour, and the difference in the intensity between last year and this year is palpable. It struck me today. Last year on golf/media day I showed up at the RecZone and there were I think three guys on the ice, one of them being Rod Brind’Amour. I almost didn’t head over today, thinking no one would be there, and there were 22 freaking guys on the ice when I got there! Totally blew me away. Only one I’d call a “vet”, Tuomo skated with the group for the first time today (presumably he wouldn’t be playing golf), but a lot of the guys who you figure will have a good shot at the roster were skating – McBain, Dwyer, Carson, Rodney, Harrison, Babchuk, Pete-Dawg, etc. Even when no one in the organization had eyes on them, they were all over there working hard. Total shift in the dynamic from last year.
Phoblographer and Finn Aficionado
SISU
I’ve been viewing the extended (or maybe it’s multiple road trips, with brief pit stops at home base) road trip as a possible team-building plus, as well.
No question, the sudden depth in our depth chart has made the veterans a bit less comfortable than most seasons. Plus, we have an unusually large number of contracts pending this summer, so not only is there competition for roster spots and ice time, but also career-positioning going on, as well.
UFA this summer:
Cole
Samsonov
Jokinen
LaRose
Pitkanen
Babchuk
Harrison
Dwyer
RFA this summer:
Sutter
Tlusty
Carson
Here we are now...entertain us.
I don’t think Carson will be an RFA, since he wasn’t qualified this past year and became a UFA. But I may be totally wrong. Just guessing.
by Cory Lavalette on Sep 9, 2010 8:27 AM EDT up reply actions
You know, you may be right. Had forgotten about that little non-event.
Once a UFA, always a UFA, I suppose.
Salary chart I was using still has him listed as RFA…but you know they wouldn’t pick up on a nuance like that.
So, he not only wants to impress the folks here, but also build up some numbers for his agent to possibly use elsewhere.
Here we are now...entertain us.
Once a UFA, always a UFA, I suppose.
I don’t know about that. I seem to recall an unqualified player signing with another team and still being an RFA after that one-year deal expired. I don’t recall any particulars which probably means I’m imagining things.
Don't trust me. I have psychological issues.
Yeah, I’m pretty sure if, say, Drew Doughty (for sake of using an RFA coming up soon) isn’t given a QO and goes to UFA, and signs a 1 year deal, at the end of that he’ll be RFA again. It’s like 7 seasons or age 27, I think.
by red army line on Sep 9, 2010 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I cannot find any specific reference to this situation within the CBA or any article/post discussing similar situations.
A player can choose to be a UFA when they are 27 or after the requisite number of NHL seasons for the age at which they signed their first pro contract, whichever comes first.
But, they can become UFA prior to these trigger points if actions are taken by others, so this may be one of those cases.
One thing’s for sure, if the Canes do retain RFA rights, they better play him for at least 21 games this year, so as to exceed the minimum total of 80 games for 25-year-olds (he has 59 total games now), or he will become a Group VI UFA, whether the lack of a qualifying offer permanently made him one or not.
Here we are now...entertain us.
In fact, he turns 25 on November 29th of this year, so the question would be does he become a Group VI UFA at that very moment in time (assuming no UFA status carryover from the lack of a RFA qualifying offer this season) and assuming the total NHL game count is still below 80 on his birthday (which I believe it would have to be)?
Here we are now...entertain us.
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