Hurricanes At Bruins: Game Day Preview

by Bob Wage on Jan 17, 2011 9:01 AM EST

The Carolina Hurricanes, (22-16-6) are on the road again, this time to take on the Boston Bruins, (24-13-7) for a game with a special 1 p.m. start time for Martin Luther King Day at TD Garden in Beantown. The contest is the first of a back-to-back and home-and-home matchup. The two teams meet again in Raleigh on Tuesday night.

The Canes are presently one of the hottest teams in the league. In their last 10 games they are 7-1-2, and their record is 11-4-3 in their last 18.

Several players have scoring streaks, led by Eric Staal who has points in eight consecutive games. His career best is 11 games. Tuomo Ruutu and Jeff Skinner have earned points in five straight. Ruutu has 16 points, (5G 11A) in his last 11 games.

The Bruins have also been a fairly hot team as they have earned points in 10 of their last 12 games. In their last 10, they have a 5-2-3 record, but they are coming off a tough, 3-2 loss to the Penguins on Saturday night.

According to the Bruins homepage, Tim Thomas should be back between the pipes today. Cam Ward will get the start for Carolina and might get every start from now until the All Star break, according to coach Paul Maurice.

	GP	MIN	W	L	EGA	GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
2010 - Cam Ward	37	2138	19	12		95	2.67	1209	1114	.921	2

	GP	MIN	W	L	EGA	GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
2010 - Tim Thomas	31	1852	20	4		58	1.88	1010	952	.943	6

Patrice Bergeron is leading the Baby Bears in scoring, followed by David Krejci and Milan Lucic. (Lucic is a bit banged up and he has missed a couple of games.)

The Bruins have faced their fair share of injuries, although defenseman Mark Stuart was recently activated from the IR and could play. Marc Savard is still trying to get back into form and Nathan Horton has been playing through some issues.

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2010 - Patrice Bergeron	44	14	20	34	16	16	3	2	3		109

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2010 - David Krejci	37	7	21	28	10	13	0	0	1		76

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2010 - Milan Lucic	41	16	12	28	11	58	2	0	3		92

According to NESN, both Stuart and Lucic will probably play. For even more info about the B's, check out our SBN partner at Stanley Cup of Chowder.

Eric Staal continues to lead the Hurricanes with rookie Jeff Skinner and Tuomo Ruutu not too far behind.

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2010 - Eric Staal	44	22	24	46	-6	34	7	2	5		165

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2010 - Jeff Skinner	44	16	20	36	2	14	3	0	1		112

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2010 - Tuomo Ruutu	44	12	24	36	-2	28	6	0	1		79

Jussi Jokinen is also hot and has four goals and three assists in the three games he has played in since returning from injury.

This is the 11th of 21 scheduled sets of back-to-backs this season for the Canes. So far the team is 6-1-3 in the first games and 5-4-1 in the second.

The last time the teams met was back on November 26 when Ward earned his first ~~and only~~ shutout of the season.

The game will be televised locally on FS Carolinas and we will have our open game thread up and running at 12:30.

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Comments

this may seem shocking considering Canes' defense

but cam ward has had 2 SOs this season. against boston and against ottawa on Dec 29. I would love to see Tom Rowe get his team to play some damn team defense again like the good ole days…

by tarheelicane9 on Jan 17, 2011 9:32 AM EST reply actions

btw, out of the top 12 point scorers in the league right now, Eric Staal has BY FAR the worst +/- numbers. the next worst in the list is Martin St. Louis at +3. Staal has been having a decent season so far, but I’d like to see some better defense from Canes forwards over the last half of the season…

by tarheelicane9 on Jan 17, 2011 9:41 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah, those 2 defensive breakdowns by defensemen against Tampa on Saturday really didn’t help his +/-.

Staal, Skinner, and ?; almost a NHL level 1st line!

by PackPride17 on Jan 17, 2011 10:29 AM EST up reply actions

I wouldn’t immediately equate /- to good defensive play. Nearly everyone on the team was a minus last game and they won. Granted, not a hallmark for defensive performance, but TB’s guys that got pluses didn’t really deserve them. Brind’Amour won his Selkes with pretty pedestrian plus/minus numbers (7 or +8 each year, I think).

If you include special teams, Staal has been on the ice for 66 goals for, 51 against.

CanesCountry.com: An Eye On Carolina Hockey

by Cory Lavalette on Jan 17, 2011 10:41 AM EST up reply actions

What’s the relevance of Top 12? Is it because #13 is Sharp, who has a worse +/- than Staal? Yay for arbitrary cut-offs.

by Kahz on Jan 17, 2011 11:49 AM EST up reply actions

In defense of Staal

I don’t think the slights against Eric Staal have merit. The top dozen scorers in the league don’t play on equivalent teams and they don’t play the same roles.

First, the roles. Not all of the top scorers play on the PK like Staal. Staal plays about the same time ES as Crosby, 16:11 to 16:01 in Staal’s favor. But Staal plays 3 times as much on the PK as Crosby, 1:28 to :28 per game. Staal gets less time on the power play than Crosby, 4:16 to 5:25. I’m not saying Staal is as good as Crosby, just that he spends more time on the PK and less on the power play.

Staal is 8th in the league in goals scored. If you run down the shorthanded time on ice for top goal scorers, Ryan Kesler has 2:17, Corey Perry’s name turns up next at 1:35, then Staal at 1:28. Patrick Sharp is about the same at 1:25. Stamkos is next with :31 and then Crosby with :28. Brad Richards plays :22 on the PK. The Sedins, Briere and Nash don’t do PK at all.

Also, on + / – , Staal is – 6, which as you say is by far worst among the top 12 point scorers, and far behind Crosby’s +20 Stamkos’ +10, Sedin’s +17. On the other hand, it’s better than the +/- of some other top scorers like Patrick Sharp (-7), Phil Kessel (-16) and John Tavares (-17). Kessel and Tavares play on teams with lousy defenses. That has an effect on their + / -.

How do the defenses stack up for the teams of those top 12 point scorers?

Goals Against per Game – Teams of Top 12 Point Scorers

Crosby Pitt 2.33
Stamkos TB 3.17
Sedin Vancouver 2.36
St. Louis TB 3.17
Richards Dallas 2.56
Zetterberg Det 2.87
Perry Anaheim 2.77
Erikson Dallas 2.56
Staal Carolina 2.98
Kopitar LAK 2.57
Ovechkin Wash 2.56

So St. Louis, Stamkos, Zetterberg and Staal have the disadvantage of playing on teams with relatively poor defenses. Crosby, the Sedins and Richards have the advantage of playing on teams with excellent defenses.

Now look at the top scorers who play for teams with poor defenses and also log serious time on the PK. Zetterberg plays :40 per game on the PK. Stamkos plays :31, St. Louis :41. So the list narrows down to Staal who has both the disadvantage of playing for a team with a defense in the bottom half of the league and the drain of playing substantial time on the PP.

Let’s imagine what Staal would look like statistically in Evgeny Malkin’s circumstances. Plays on a team with a great defense. Plays 3 seconds per game on the PK. Logs time with league’s leading scorer, Crosby. Staal might look like Malkin in Malkin’s best year. Would Staal still have the – 7 +/- that he has on the Canes? Or would his + / – look more like Jordan Staal’s last year? Now let’s trade Malkin to the Canes for Staal. Malkin plays on the top line, half the time with Chad LaRose. Malkin plays for a team with one of the league’s leakier defenses. Malkin is asked to play 1:30 per night on the PK. Would Malkin still have the – 3 + / – that he does in Pittsburgh?

by curiouscanesfan on Jan 17, 2011 1:03 PM EST up reply actions

Okay, how about his face off % or the silly retaliation penalties he takes or that even though he wants to play center he usually ends up high on the defensive side while one of the wingers covers down low?

Look, I like Staal. He’s a very good player, but he has holes in his game. He’s got fewer than most players, but he still has them. This isn’t a sleight or jealousy of a salary. It’s honesty. He’s got some holes in his game. He’s got time to remedy some of them (although one has to ask why he waited for Rod to retire before addressing his faceoff % and what that says about him).

Don't trust me. I have psychological issues.

by C-Leaguer on Jan 17, 2011 3:46 PM EST up reply actions

C-Leaguer, you’re dead right. Staal does have a low face off %, does sometimes take silly retaliation penalties, isn’t great dangling or in shootouts, etc. He also takes unnecessary penalties when the Canes are already a man down, even in games where the Canes are up by 1 goal late in the game. That drives me nuts. For that matter, Staal isn’t all that strong—he’s tall and skinny and sometimes gets pushed around. He’s like a power forward who isn’t quite strong enough. He’s got plenty of flaws. But he’s still an elite player in the league.

When I came to his defense, it was over the comments about his low + / -. I didn’t make that clear with my first sentence – I stated my point too generally as against “the slights against” Staal. Your response to my message is fully justified based on that.

I think where your point is strongest is in answering the question whether it’s within Staal’s ability to be better than he is and to play more consistently. I think the answer in both cases is yes. At the same time, it really isn’t fair to compare Staal to goal scorers who don’t play comparable minutes on the PK. That’s taxing work and it takes minutes away from his TOI that could be used to score goals and rack up assists.

Look at it this way. Staal plays about 1.5 minutes per game on the PK. How many additional points would he score per year if he spent that time on the PP instead like many top scorers? That question isn’t hard to answer. That would be about another 120 minutes on the PP. How many points does he score per 60 minutes on the PP? Answer: 5.53. So he would have about 11 more points per year. At this point in the season, he would have 5-6 more points. If it’s 6 points, he moves up to a tie with Brad Richards for 6th in league scoring with 52 points. He’s still trailing Crosby, Stamkos, both Sedins and St. Louis. But he’s moved ahead of guys like Zetterburg, who aren’t bad. Staal would also have another 4.5 – 5 goals. If it’s 5, he has 27 goals and is tied with Daniel Sedin for 3rd in the league. Stamkos has St. Louis and Staal doesn’t. The Sedins have each other and Staal has no Sedin equivalent. Staal would look better if his circumstances were comparable to theirs. Daniel Sedin’s face off percentage is 14.3, Stamkos’s is 47. Rick Nash’s is 35.7. St. Louis’s is 40.4. Ovechkin’s is 23.1, and he’s got a measly 15 goals this year. Nobody’s perfect except Sidney Crosby. There aren’t many guys between Staal and Crosby.

So by all means push Staal to stop taking those exasperating penalties and to improve his faceoffs, but also appreciate him for what he is—one of the league’s top goal and point scorers who takes on tough roles like the PK more than most of his peers. He actually does have it harder than a lot of his peers. Maybe that’s why he gets frustrated and does things that hurt the Canes, like those penalties you mention.

Oh, one other thing I noticed that might interest you. Look at shifts per game for forwards in the league. Staal leads with 28. Crosby has 22.7. That means Staal has shorter shifts on average. I don’t know if leading the league in shifts means you tire out faster and have to come off, you play in more situations than any other player or what. I don’t know if it’s an additional burden or an advantage. But it is interesting that Staal leads the league in shifts per game.

by curiouscanesfan on Jan 17, 2011 5:15 PM EST up reply actions

thanks for being a jinx.

by Go_Shelf on Jan 17, 2011 10:02 AM EST up reply actions

Thank goodness for DVR!

I’ll be listening at work with Chuck and the letter K! Hope the Canes give me a good reason to look forward to watching this game on the DVR when I get home from work.

Go Canes!!!

Yeah, well, you know, that's just like, uh, your opinion, man.

by anonymousJ on Jan 17, 2011 9:47 AM EST reply actions

How ya feeling about that DVR now? My advice? Delete!

Phoblographer and Finn Aficionado
SISU

by Jamie Kellner on Jan 17, 2011 5:45 PM EST up reply actions

We currently have 5 guys on pace to score 20+ goals. If that pace continues for those players, it would be the first time since 06/07 that the Canes would have 5 guys with at least 20 goals on the season.

Staal, Skinner, and ?; almost a NHL level 1st line!

by PackPride17 on Jan 17, 2011 10:45 AM EST reply actions

The Fundamentals

Sometimes the fundamentals are interesting to examine, so although it almost goes without sayiing, there are two ways to get to the 20+ goal plateau and beyond: shoot the requisite number of times to do so with an “average” shooting percentage rate, OR have a hot shooting percentage streak while maintaining an “average” number of shots.

Doing both can, of course, lead to the 30+ goal level, and beyond. Hot linemates and/or power play time can affect a player’s shooting percentage, but so can just having a hot year with no help at all.

Staal has always been an “average” shooter, hovering slightly above 10 percent to maybe 12 percent. Pretty decent number for the NHL. But, he puts up a lot of shots, so gets his goals and points from quantity perhaps moreso than quality.

The Cup year he had a blistering 16.1% on his usual 279 shots. This season, he’s running hot at 13.3% to date and is waaaayyyy ahead of his usual pace for shots taken at 165. So, big season for Eric if he keeps this up.

Ruutu is also having a hot shooting percentage season to date at 15.2% to lead the team for the regulars (Dalpe has 20% for 3 games and 15 shots). Ruutu gets his goals from sharpshooting, nearly always in the 13% area, but this his hot even for him.

Skinner is also hot for the NHL at 14.3%. In fact, he’s second on the team in shooting percentage and second on the team in shots taken. Look out, NHL.

Jokinen’s at 13.0% and Samsonov’s at 13.6%, but not taking (or getting enough time to do so) shots to be on 20-goal pace at the moment, even though leading the also-rans.

Cole is having an average shooting percentage year for the league at 11.8%, but putting up more shots than is his usual pace, so joining the top five goal scorers through that means. He’s an interesting one to watch, because as much as we lament “no hands” these days, Cole was actually the team’s sharpshooter during the Cup year (18.3%) and the following season (17.5%). So, if he was to get hot again…

Just some things to watch for here at the halfway point.

Here we are now...entertain us.

by Elsker on Jan 17, 2011 11:27 AM EST up reply actions

Interesting stuff.

I can’t wait to watch this game tonight.

by hotchipsnsalsa on Jan 17, 2011 11:46 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah you can!

Phoblographer and Finn Aficionado
SISU

by Jamie Kellner on Jan 17, 2011 5:45 PM EST up reply actions

A variation of the high shooting percentage concept as a way to 20 goals is the brave fool who stands in the crease. Think T.Holmstrom of Detroit. He’s had numerous 20+ goal seasons.

by drifterscape on Jan 17, 2011 12:20 PM EST up reply actions

Holmstrom recorded a phenomenal 20.7% in ‘05-’06 and a 19.1% last season and a 18.7% the season before that one.

He has a less spectacular pace of 13.8% this season to date, but still also has 11 goals so far to maintain a 20+ goal pace for the season.

Those that operate near the crease probably do have elevated shooting percentages.

Here we are now...entertain us.

by Elsker on Jan 17, 2011 12:33 PM EST up reply actions

Very interesting stuff, Elsker, especially about Skinner’s combination of lots of shots and high shooting percentage. Look out NHL is right.

There are a couple of other things about Skinner I noticed on behindthenet.ca and thought you might find interesting. Surprisingly, Skinner leads the team in goals for per 60 minutes on the ice at even strength with 3.43, ahead of Ruutu, Staal, Jokinen and Cole in that order.

I thought Skinner might be dead last in GA/60 at even strength but he’s not. He’s middle of the pack with 2.87, better than Staal, Ruutu, Cole and LaRose.

In fact, when you look at ES +/- per 60 minutes, Skinner is 2nd on the Canes at 0.55, right behind Jokinen at 0.68. So the team scores when Skinner is on the ice and he shoots a lot, but he isn’t a disaster defensively. Skinner isn’t just piling up points and the rest be damned. Pretty amazing stuff for an 18-year-old. Some of this may be a credit to PM’s line juggling – keeping Skinner away from the toughest matchups. Still, he’s up against good NHLers all the time and is often a target.

Skinner may not make 30 goals, but he’s getting results like a vet. Taylor Hall looks like what you’d expect from a talented rookie – the team scores well enough with him out there, but the other team scores more. The Canes are unbelievably fortunate. Imagine what Skinner will be like when he gets stronger and gets some experience.

by curiouscanesfan on Jan 17, 2011 6:40 PM EST up reply actions

Skinner is an unbelievable talent, but the GA/60 is a little misleading. Staal, Ruutu, Cole, Jussi are all important defensive forwards for the Canes. I could be wrong, but at the end of games when the other team pulls the goalie, I think that is still considered even strength. And if you notice, Skinner is usually not on the ice at those times for the Canes. Staal, Cole, Ruutu, Sutter, Jussi usually are on the ice during those important defensive times where the other team is apply more offensive pressure.

Staal, Skinner, and ?; almost a NHL level 1st line!

by PackPride17 on Jan 17, 2011 10:12 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Your points are on target, PackPride. Skinner doesn’t play defense in critical situations if the Canes have a choice about it and he doesn’t play PK either. I’m not claiming he’s a premier defensive forward or as good as the Canes vet forwards defensively—just that he’s not disastrous defensively, which is what I was afraid might be the case.

Specifically, I thought I’d find that the Canes give up more goals with Skinner on the ice than they score even though the Canes don’t give him the tough defensive assignments. It’s a relief to find out that that isn’t so. It isn’t so for Couture either. It is for Hall, whose stats look like an 18-year-old’s stats should look.

by curiouscanesfan on Jan 18, 2011 3:38 PM EST up reply actions

Who would’ve thought at the start of the season that the Canes would have three players with more points than the B’s top scorer? And what if I told you one of them wouldn’t be Jokinen?

CanesCountry.com: An Eye On Carolina Hockey

by Cory Lavalette on Jan 17, 2011 11:23 AM EST reply actions

It’s really not that surprising considering the way they play and who their coach is. Last year their leading scoring was Bergeron with 52 pts – Canes: Staal – 70, Jussi – 65, and Whitney – 58. I guess Skinner and Ruutu are somewhat of a surprise.

by Go_Shelf on Jan 17, 2011 11:45 AM EST up reply actions

Despite the early start time, I kinda enjoy these back-to-back home-n-home’s. Usually a little more physical stuff.
I’d like to see Justin Peters get a start tomorrow especially if B’s start T.Rask.

by drifterscape on Jan 17, 2011 11:27 AM EST reply actions

Not sure we’ll see Peters tomorrow – Mo has pretty much said Cam will play up to the All Star break…

by caniacmum on Jan 17, 2011 11:34 AM EST reply actions

where is the game streaming

by bcal1983 on Jan 17, 2011 11:47 AM EST reply actions

Tlusty activated off IR, available for this afternoon

Here’s the link.

CanesCountry.com: An Eye On Carolina Hockey

by Cory Lavalette on Jan 17, 2011 12:01 PM EST reply actions

Any news about Boychuk being sent down or Tlusty going on a reconditioning stint?

by caniac617 on Jan 17, 2011 12:12 PM EST up reply actions

Skating

I watched the Caps/Canucks game the other night and the announcers kept commenting on how both teams have the best team speed in the league, which told me I was watching the fastest hockey possible in the league this year.

This isn’t backed up by stats or anything, but my IMPRESSION (IMHI?) is that we are quicker. I can’t remember the last time I thought, or read hear on CC, that we just aren’t skating. Yeah McB got beat a couple of times, but IMHI he was giving max effort. Cole stayed in the play and set up the Staal shorthander. And where were the TB players? I only counted 3 on the screen.

I seems to me that this is what we had in 05/06 that has been missing the last few years and it seems like we have it back. It is youth? Chemistry? I’m not sure, but I’ll take it wherever it comes from.

by coastalcaniac on Jan 17, 2011 12:03 PM EST reply actions

Boston’s a little banged up today, looks like Stuart and Lucic will be in the lineup; I also heard Savard’s got a sore neck from the other night. The boys will need to come out flying and get on them early.

by Go_Shelf on Jan 17, 2011 12:32 PM EST reply actions

Canes offer up AHL Goalteanding Versus the Bruins

What a pathetic display of goaltending on the road today. Cam gives up 2 goals in the first 10 minutes and then AHL wannbe Peters gives up 5 more. We need a quality backup and Peters is not the answer. JR needs to find a quality back – yes even Leighton was better than Peters. We looked worst than the Checkers trying to hang with the BRuins today. Bad overall effort!!!

by kcr630 on Jan 17, 2011 3:34 PM EST reply actions