Getting inside JR's head come the Trade Deadline...

This will be my first Fan Post, though I am a long time reader and sporadic poster on game days. I’ve been a fan of the franchise for years (dating back to the Hartford Whaler days) and am so happy to see the support the team gets on this board.

For many hockey fans, the trade deadline is the most exciting day of the year. In Canada, there’s all day coverage of the transactions as they come in. The Canes are in a rather unique situation. They’re not quite a Stanley Cup contender, and yet they’re not a bottom feeder either. They’re one of a handful of teams on the cusp of the playoffs. That makes the decisions Jim Rutherford must make even more difficult.

I’m a rather unique brand of fan, in that I personally would rather see my team tank and continue to stockpile better draft picks and prospects than either a) just miss the playoffs (see last year) or b) barely get in and get knocked out in the first round.

I realize, however, that most fans don’t want to suffer through such terrible seasons, and more importantly, the Canes need to do well in order to continue to build fan and corporate support in the region. In other words, the team desperately needs to make the playoffs, even though this doesn’t help them build for the future nearly as well.

I could cite countless examples of teams that have given up much in recent years just to remain in contention (see Atlanta and Calgary). Being a short term buyer at the trade deadline rarely works as either a short term strategy (i.e. going far in the playoffs) or long term (because you give up prospects that often would help you for years to come). Thankfully, JR hasn’t fallen into this category. The one year (2006) where he did go out and sacrifice, we got Doug Weight and Mark Recchi, and I think we can all agree that was well worth it.

With all of that in mind, I tried to imagine Rutherford’s options come trade deadline day. Last year I think we can agree he played things very well, outside of not being able to trade Whitney (or deciding not to trade him, whichever story you choose to believe). This year seems more complicated. I took a long look at the roster, and tried to project what he might do.

My assumptions all begin with thinking about the current elements of the team, and what the team might look like next year. There are a few wild cards, and of course this is subject to opinion, but I think most hockey experts would tell you that a successful team consists of 2 lines that can score (top 6 forwards) a line that can shut down your opponent’s best (the third line) and an energy line (the 4th line). The best teams have 3 lines that can skate and score, with the added benefit that the third line can also check (see the Canes’ cup winning season). As for the defense, I truly believe that you need at least 4 defenders that can skate, hit, and move the puck. The very best teams all seem to have a solid core of defenders, and this may be the Canes’ greatest weakness. I think it’s fair to say that we’re set in goal.

So, with those assumptions in hand, I tried to project our roster for NEXT season, as any trade decisions will likely hinge on that. This gets pretty complicated because we have sooooooo many unrestricted free agents after this year. One thing that this organization really seems to get the benefit of is a hometown discount. The players do seem to love playing with each other and living together. So, with regard to the forwards, here is roughly what we might be looking at:

1st line: Staal, Skinner, Cole

2nd line: Ruttu, Boychuck, Jokinen

3rd line: Sutter, Dalpe, LaRose

4th line: Carter, Tlusty, Bodie

This I realize means resigning UFAs Cole, Jokinen, LaRose, and Carter, plus the RFAs. I believe that Cole would rather play here or retire, and I think both Jokinen and LaRose know they owe much of their success to this franchise. Carter I’m not as sure about, but he is desirable for the way he plays and his size, and given that he was waived by Anaheim I think there may not be too much demand for him elsewhere.

This of course means the team would be without Dwyer and Samsonov next year. I’ll get into trades and values in a bit, but the crux of my logic is this: the Canes work best as a skating team that can get physical. Would they be even better if they went out and got another power forward? Yes, of course. But given the self-imposed spending limit’s the team has, and the fact that EVERY team in the league covets big power forwards that can score, and I don’t think it is likely that the team will give up tons and tons for that player. The above proposed forward lines give them the best potential to succeed.

Additional thoughts: yes, there are other prospects in the system that may contribute. I think that Bowman will be an NHL player, though I’m not sure he will develop into an offensive threat at the highest level, he may be asked to fill a more defensively responsible role. I think other forwards in the system also have potential in various roles, though I’m not convinced they’re “top 6” players: Nash, Matusmoto, Osala, and Terry. Justin Shugg looks like he may be a great player, though the team has the luxury of being able to let him develop slowly over the next couple seasons.

The defense, as most fans know, needs help. I feel bad writing that, because when you look at any one of the current 6 defensemen, they’re all solid NHLers. Even Harrison, who many were quick to bash early on, has really improved and can be counted on for some reliable defensive play. That being said, the team needs more high end talent on the back end. The trouble here, much like the need for one more top flight power forward on offense, is that EVERY team wants these top end defensemen that can skate and hit. The good news from my perspective is that the team does have the assets to move now for prospects that could contribute as early as next season.

Right now, both White and Pitkanen are set to be UFAs. Both will be desirable assets come the trade deadline. White, while undersized, is an excellent skater and is positionally strong in his own zone. By most standards, he would be a 4th D man on a lot of teams. Pitkanen has always been huge on talent and insanely inconsistent all over the ice. Yet, he could still be the 2nd best D man on many teams in the league. As Abramsdoug mentioned in his post last week, I don’t think JR will risk losing such assets for nothing over the summer. S, this has been my longwinded approach to predicting trades in March.

I think our biggest changes will be on defense, where both Pitkanen and White will be traded.

Pitkanen will be one of the top targets for Stanley Cup contending teams. I expect we will see a 1st round pick and a top flight defensive prospect in return.

White will also be of interest to many teams, especially those not looking to spend quite as much. I think a 2nd round pick and a depth defenseman (perhaps with another year at a moderate contract price) will come back.

After last year’s fiasco, I doubt anyone will come looking for Corvo. As much as teams may want Gleason, given his contributions and another year on his contract, I doubt he’s going anywhere. McBain is certainly a part of the team’s future plans, and Harrison isn’t worth trading - he might command a 5th round pick, and his contributions outweigh that in my opinion.

The forwards are much tougher to peg. Samsonov will be traded. He has value as on offensive contributor, and in the right system, and certainly on the power play, he has much value. What the team will get in return however, is anyone’s guess. My personal feeling is that the team will get a 3rd round pick for him. It could be lower, but I think that’s reasonable for a potential top 6 forward, and I think more than one team will come calling on deadline day.

As I mentioned above, it looks like Dwyer may be an odd man out next year. It’s unfortunate because he does all the little things right, but there are simply too many talented forwards ready for next season. I’m not sure if many teams will be looking for another energy/checking forward at the deadline, but it may be best to move him for a 5th or 6th round pick than lose him for nothing this summer.

As much as many don’t want to read this, I think it’s also fair to assume that both Cole and Jokinen have a good chance of being traded. Cole would almost certainly be a rental that would come back to the team, but he is playing his best hockey in years, and he has size, power, and speed, and would easily garner a 3rd round pick, and/or a non roster prospect.

Jokinen may fall into the “trade him so we don’t lose him like Whitney” category. While he does love it in Carolina (or so I keep reading), the fact remains that he is an UFA this summer. He is the sort of player that makes everyone around him better, and he’s actually bigger than you might think. If traded, I think he’s worth a 2nd rounder and a top notch prospect, given his play. I think if the right team came up with that offer, JR would have no choice but to let him go.

What gets really interesting is wondering what will happen to the defense between now and the start of next season. All of our top end prospects likely need another year’s seasoning, so there will need to be some free agent signing or trade. The prospects in the AHL (Carson, Rodney, Saguinetti, and even Borer) all have their pluses, but like the current defense, likely lack the top end potential the team needs to move forward.

I don’t envy the decisions JR has to make, but I do admire what he’s done to date. This is my best guess and assessment of what we’re looking at in the near future. Thanks for reading this long post, I welcome your feedback and thoughts!