Are the 'Canes where they should be?

by Capt. Stinky on Jan 4, 2011 1:40 PM EST

If I came to you with a roster that included Eric Staal, Cam Ward, Tim Gleason, Brandon Sutter, Erik Cole, Tuomo Ruutu, Jussi Jokinen, and potential rookie of the year candidate Jeff Skinner, would you think that we'd be 18-15-5 with 41 points and chasing the last playoff spot from the outside looking in, would you say that's about right?

Why or why not? I would have thought we'd be higher up with wins with that roster...

Poll

Are the 'Canes where they should be with the roster they have?

Yes, they're about where they should be.

28 votes

Actually, they're doing better than I thought.

18 votes

No way, with that much talent we should be a top-8 team

21 votes

67 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Who honestly believes that the Canes are more talented than Montreal, New York, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Washington, Boston, Tampa or Philly? Only three teams have allowed fewer goals than Montreal, and those teams have all played equal or fewer games and this is before we get in to their forwards. The Rangers have so much D they can send Del Zotto down to the AHL. Think about that for a few minutes and then remember Ludqvist, Gaborik, et al. Atlanta is tied with Pittsburgh for most goals scored in the east and have a Buff on the blue line who is in the Norris Trohpy talk. The other five are no brainers.

To climb the mountain you got to knock one of those teams down and right now those 8 teams are all more talented than the Canes.

Don't trust me. I have psychological issues.

by C-Leaguer on Jan 4, 2011 2:39 PM EST reply actions

Agreed, we’re as good if not better than the Rags, Atlanta, and maybe Montreal.

by Go_Shelf on Jan 4, 2011 2:55 PM EST up reply actions

Talent ?

overall the guys are doing better than I expected, so far. I do believe we have some coaching issues to be resolved if we are to be a true playoff team, but mostly I think we lack consistency night after night, we can’t put togather more than a couple of games for a winning streak. Is that a lack of coaching or motivation on the player part……we do have a lot of talent in the young guys waiting for a chance, that has been proven in just the last couple of games, the kids are hot and ready to take a bite of the big teams ass….some of the older players are showing up and seem willing to teach and support the up and comers……but they all lack the consistency needed to make a playoff run

by littlepig on Jan 4, 2011 3:09 PM EST reply actions

We can debate if we are meeting expectations etc…..However we all agree we are not ’Cup contenders. We need better defense and more scoring punch. We are close, but then so are 20 other teams.

My hope is we will blend youthful talent with selected top line free agents to make us ’Cup contenders again next year. Sometimes you need to invest money in order to make money. If the ’Canes continue to tighten the purse strings to the extent they become Salary Cap floor dwellers, I suspect some of the fan base will become disenchanted with the product.

Shoot the puck!!!!!!

by Mullett on Jan 4, 2011 3:37 PM EST reply actions

The Canes have the players you mention, Captain, but they also have forwards playing a line too high and some defensemen who don’t exactly fall into the shut-down category. The salary budget is low and it shows on the ice. Problems on the ice will continue unless the salary budget goes up or the prospects come through and perform above their pay level. I’m not a Mo fan but don’t see any reasonable way to fault him for the team’s performance given the salary and talent limitations at too many positions.

We also can’t lose sight of the development aspect of this season. That looked not so great two weeks ago and I was furious that Boychuk was stuck on the 4th line when the Canes had a chance to see what he can do. Fate intervened. With Boychuk and Dalpe shining along with Skinner, McBain and Sutter, there’s no doubt that the Canes have better things in store. The prospects improve chances of making the playoffs this year. Continued AHL and NHL development plus another good draft, perhaps including high picks from trades to come, and the future could look very bright.

If next year’s team has more talent and doesn’t improve its record I’ll be ready to question Mo again. As long as he’s not blocking development, gives prospects opportunities and shows a little patience with them, I think we should show patience toward him. That’s hard for some of us, but it’s only fair.

by curiouscanesfan on Jan 4, 2011 5:18 PM EST reply actions

As long as he’s not blocking development, gives prospects opportunities and shows a little patience with them, I think we should show patience toward him. That’s hard for some of us, but it’s only fair.

It also keeps the team from having to pay for two coaches next season which would take money away from the pool used for players at a time when a couple of key acquisitions could be very helpful.

Don't trust me. I have psychological issues.

by C-Leaguer on Jan 5, 2011 7:33 AM EST up reply actions

I’d say the Canes are pretty much where I thought they’d be. They have some talented players, but top to bottom we are still not as talented as most teams in the NHL.

One thing that is very frustrating; being a small market, low budget team; is that we are probably only a top line winger and top 4 defenseman away from being a really good team. We have the cap space, but not the actual money to acquire these holes.

Staal, Skinner, and ?; almost a NHL level 1st line!

by PackPride17 on Jan 4, 2011 9:34 PM EST via mobile reply actions

+1

every single stinking one of us who loves this team sees the 5 missing pieces, yet we are hopeless to do anything about it because we’re not millionaires. sigh

"Mo Must STAY! He's the best coach EVER!!!"

by Capt. Stinky on Jan 5, 2011 7:08 AM EST up reply actions

EXACTLY!

by caniacmum on Jan 6, 2011 1:20 PM EST up reply actions

All five ‘holes’ in the team can and probably will be filled within the next few years as prospects turn into NHL players. Both Boychuk and Dalpe are showing they can be both responsible defensively, play aggressively, and score. Dumoulin and Faulk will be able to move into the third pairing and then upward in a few seasons. Pittsburgh didn’t instantly go from being a team that finished in the bottom five every season for a decade to cup champions and perennial contender overnight. We won’t either.

by Chuck Burns on Jan 7, 2011 11:01 PM EST up reply actions

White and a Draft Choice for Dustin Penner

Hypothetically, trading White and a draft choice for Dustin Penner (and moving him to right wing) yields a potential first line of Boychuk/Staal/Penner. The Canes have more than ample firepower for the second, third, and fourth line. The Canes fourth line as Dwyer/Carter/Bodie matches up extremely well with the top tier’s fourth line. Right wings of Penner, Ruutu, Cole, Bodie would be an excellent group for any NHL team. The point is the addition one top tier right wing is a sea change for the Hurricanes. Top tier right wings are scarce. Whether the Hurricanes organization will use trades rather than prospects or the draft to fill that role is entirely unclear. Dalpe has the most speed, size, hands, and versatility to be a scoring right wing. Cole has all the tools but the hands to be a consistent scorer at right wing; but when he gets his motor racing, he is a force on the ice. I wouldn’t discount the possibility that adding a player like Boychuk who has to get attention from the defense could help Staal and Cole put pucks in the back of the net.

I think the much harder task is finding the highly skilled, stay at home, physical defenseman. Why would any team want to trade a top tier player with those skills unless there were a personality conflict with the coach or another player on the team. One possible approach is to take a puck moving defenseman who had make open ice hits as the filling this role. This of Michael Del Zotto, for example. He’s in Torts’ doghouse; but then every year Torts has some defenseman in the doghouse because that is how Torts operates – by invoking fear and loathing to motivate the rest of the team. Here’s the info on Del Zotto:

http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/players/54210/Michael_Del_Zotto

A big hitter with grit would help the defense even if he were not an immovable object.

Also if it only took an investment group to raise say $20 million to solve the financial issues, this problem would be solved. The investment amount is probably between $90 million and $120 million depending on which numbers one uses. In this economy that kind of investment capital is not simple to find.

by abramsdoug on Jan 5, 2011 7:24 AM EST reply actions

You can make a list of eight players just as good or better for almost every team in the league. The only standout players there are Staal and Ward. Gleason is a #3 on a good defense, Sutter is a a third liner on most teams, Ruutu/Jokinen are 50 point players and Erik Cole is a third liner on any team except us and the Leafs. The fact that you manage to mention six forwards and only include one legit first liner and two third liners says it all, doesn’t it?

by Kahz on Jan 5, 2011 7:50 AM EST reply actions

The fact that Jokinen, Ruutu, Sutter and Cole consist of half this list pretty much sums up the Hurricanes. Samsonov sucks and still has managed to outproduce two of them. I know that those players bring more than just scoring, but having a bunch of “hardworking” grinders on a team with a poor defense results in mediocrity.

by Kahz on Jan 5, 2011 7:54 AM EST up reply actions

You've put the problem in a nutshell, but I have a question and a quibble

…having a bunch of ‘hardworking’ grinders on a team with a poor defense results in mediocrity.

Well put, Kahz.

With a leaky defense, winning more games requires scoring more goals. There’s a chance Boychuk and Dalpe can help with that directly and indirectly, scoring goals themselves and opening things up for others. Bring on the kids.

Question: Can anyone explain why Sutter’s scoring rate is substantially down from last year?

Scoring 13 points in 38 games is a pretty big drop from 40 in 72 games. You would expect a 21-year-old forward to improve, meaning Sutter should have something like 13 goals and 12 assists instead of 7 and 6. Sutter is at about half the scoring level that it would have been reasonable to expect. Even with zero improvement, Sutter should have about 11 goals and 10 assists at this point. What’s up with Sutter?

Quibble: I don’t think you’re giving Ruutu and Jokinen enough credit.

They work hard but they’re more than grinders. Ruutu (like Skinner) is tied with Lucic, Bobby Ryan and Cammalleri for 52nd in the league in points scored by forwards. Jokinen isn’t far behind at 26 points and has played only 35 games. He’s tied in points scored with Phil Kessel, Evander Kane and Ville Leino. Wouldn’t we jump at the chance to add any of those other players to the Canes? In a 30-team league, you’re a borderline 1st or solid 2nd line forward if you’re 52nd in the league in scoring and contribute in other ways. Both Ruutu and Jokinen contribute in many other ways. Ruutu hits more than most of those other guys. Jokinen is more versatile than most. Don’t underestimate the Finns. They’re not the problem. Some of the grass on our side of the fence is green.

by curiouscanesfan on Jan 5, 2011 10:19 AM EST up reply actions

I was referring to Sutter/Cole when I mentioned the grinders in that Samsonov was outproducing them. If 1/3rd of a team’s top forwards (as defined by are being Capt. Stinky) are being outproduced by Samsonov, then that team likely does not have a great forward group. People tend to fall in love with the “blue collar” players, but if you are overrelying on them then you will not be more than a .500 team.

At some point, a forecheck has to turn into goals or it is useless. I know that it keeps the puck away from your own end, but if the best a player/line can do most nights is end up at E with 0 points, then you are relying way too much on your very thin group of actual top six forwards to do something. Some people may want to boast about LaRose’s “effort”, but when he gets shut out at even strength in 18 of the last 19 games while getting Top 9 minutes, he is not helping the team win.

This team – despite the defense getting the blame – has scored 0, 1 or 2 goals in all but four losses this season. And two of the four losses with 3+ goals scored came in OT or SO. When this team can score more than a couple goals, it usually wins.

At the end of a loss, people always want to flame whichever defenseman screwed up which goal. I like to look at the five prime scoring chances that Erik Cole had that ended up being shot at the goalies bad or into the glass behind the net. Or the 15 minutes that LaRose was an offensive black hole for.

As for Sutter, he was “significantly injured” for awhile according to Mo and was completely removed from the powerplay for literally well over a month. He wasn’t great at face-offs last year, but he was utterly terrible for the first month+ of this season.

by Kahz on Jan 5, 2011 10:47 AM EST up reply actions

I didn’t realize Sutter’s injury had that big an impact for that long. I hope he comes on strong in the second half.

Two goals or less in all but four losses makes your point in a very powerful way. Is that counting OT and SO losses? If so, the case is even more powerful.

On looking at missed scoring chances instead of defensive screw-ups after a loss, both obviously play a role. The difference is that even a very good shooter misses a high percentage of his shots. That makes each miss less conspicuous. A very good defenseman prevents, blocks, deflects or otherwise spoils and degrades a high percentage of the shots for which he has defensive responsibility. After that, 90% of the pucks that reach the goalie don’t make it into the net. The shot that misses is the rule. The puck that turns into a goal is the exception. That explains our focus on defensive screw-ups over blown scoring chances.

That said, there are players who struggle to put the puck in the net even when they seem to have a can’t-miss scoring chance. We’ve all seen that at times with Cole.

by curiouscanesfan on Jan 5, 2011 11:23 AM EST up reply actions

You’re making a lot of good points.

It’s reasonable to expect the odd goal from energy players, but as you point out, the big picture is to use that energy to produce goals for the scorers.

If not directly on a pair of scorer’s line in a complementary winger role, then as an effectively used fourth line that can truly pin a team down in it’s own end until elements of the first line can be slipped out onto tired defenders. Sure do wish we could get back to those days (Adams Family plus LaRose) when we actually had one of those lines.

Also, your reminder of Sutter’s injury is a good one. His development curve is actually better than Jordan Staal’s, in my opinion. Brandon’s sophomore season (21-19-40 in 72GP) was more productive than Jordan’s (12-16-28 in 82GP) in fairly comparable roles.

And, that two-way role itself is a factor, since Brandon finds himself facing the other teams top lines and top defenders most times at home, when Mo has last change. Lot of energy goes there instead of offense and most top lines can play a strong two-way game.

Here we are now...entertain us.

by Elsker on Jan 5, 2011 11:46 AM EST up reply actions