The Staal Balanced Line
by PackPride17 on Nov 7, 2011 9:33 PM EST
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Staal has received much criticism, and deservedly so, for his lack of production and play this season. And I just couldn't figure out what was/is going on with him. This is a guy that has scored 100 points in a season, I'm sure he hasn't forgotten how to produce. Is it really all Erik Cole or is it something else. So I went back to randomly watch previous seasons games to examine what has worked for Staal and what hasn't. What I determined is that Staal doesn't necessarily miss Cole, but missing a certain forward line balance that works best for him.
When Staal has been most successful, he has had a good power forward that plays around/crashes the net and a playmaking, shooter that plays in the high slot. This allows Staal to go back & forth between the slot area and behind the net.; the 2 areas that work best for him. In his most successful seasons, he had Cole rushing alongside down the ice and creating traffic around the net. He also had Stillman playing quarterback in the high slot area, distributing the puck all around the ice and scoring quite often also. Notice the year after the Cup, Cole & Stillman missed a combined 50 games that season and Staal's production was the lowest of his career (outside of his rookie season). That line balance, when healthy, really worked well for Staal.
When Stillman, then later Cole, were traded away; Staal got new linemates. Cole was replaced by Ruutu and Stillman was replaced by Samsonov. While Samsonov was a good dangler, he didn't have the vision of Stillman and had to have the puck on his stick to be most effective. That didn't really mesh with Staal, so Samsonov was replaced on that line by Whitney. So the Whitney/Staal/Ruutu line started clicking. Eventually Cole was re-acquired and he was reunited with Staal, pushing Ruutu to the 2nd line. The Whitney/Staal/Cole line wasn't quite as good as Stillman/Staal/Cole, but it was still real good and productive. Staal had the line balance that worked for him and he was one of the most dangerous forwards in the league.
Then Whitney left via free agency, but Staal still had Cole. As last year showed, the Canes spent a lot of time trying to find the 3rd member of that line. Eventually Stillman was re-acquired and it seemed to work yet again. Staal had 18 points in 20 games after Stillman was brought in. Cole had 15 points in 21 games and Stillman had 16 points in 21 games. Then in the offseason Cole signed in Montreal and Stillman retired.
This season, the Canes started off by having Skinner & Ruutu as Staal's linemates. While Skinner is an excellent player, he is more in the Samsonov mold than Stillman or Whitney. He needs the puck on his stick more often than not to play his game. Ruutu seemed to be injured at the beginning of the year and wasn't really driving the net. Also, neither really seem to have the rushing ability that Staal had with Cole. So Ruutu was replaced by LaRose. While LaRose has decent speed and will crash the net, his skill level is not on par with a NHL top 6 player. So next Poni and tried in Skinner's spot and Ruutu replaced LaRose. Those players all like playing down low and neither are known for their passing abilities; it just wasn't a good balance. So Tlusty & LaRose were put with Staal. Tlusty played well, but really isn't at the playmaking level or Stillman or Whitney. Also both of those wingers still like to play below the circles. A lot of Tlusty passes originate from the goal line area.
This is not trying to make excuses for Staal, because he has not been good this year. Just while looking back, it seems that Staal needs a certain balance to his line to prosper. Maybe the coaches can recognize the same thing and figure out linemates for Staal that would help getting him on track. If Staal can start playing like Staal, that opens up a lot of things for the other lines and other players. We can go from average to above average real quick.
Looking at our current roster, here are some players that might work for "the Staal Balanced Line." You could try Poni & Jussi. Poni is a net crasher with decent hands and Jussi is the high slot player that is good at finding the open man. The major problem here is that Jussi would be off the SkinFinns line and I know that wouldn't work for a lot of the people of CC. You could also try Boychuk & Dalpe. These kids haven't really proved themselves in the NHL yet, but they have similar skills (not the same, but similar) to Stillman & Cole. Boychuk is creative, distributes the puck well, and doesn't have to possess the puck to be effective. He does seem to like to go to the dirty areas more than Stillman, but nobody is going to be the exact same. Dalpe had good speed and is a scoring forward like Cole. He's not going to attack the net like Cole would do, but he might have a better shot than Erik. You could even try Jussi & Stewart. Jussi as mentioned above, but there's still the SkinFinns problem. Stewart has some similarities to Cole's game. He will crash the net and creat havoc, but isn't as responsible defensively as Cole. Other than that, I don't really see a lot of current players that would fit the roles Staal needs.
These are just my observations, so I could be totally wrong. It just appears that Staal needs that balance to be most effective and we need him to be effective to be successful.
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Great observations, PackPride. I’d like to see the Canes start trying some of the combinations you mentioned as possibilities but they seem to be against Mo’s religion.
How long until JR coaxes Stillman out of retirement and trades to get Cole back? Stillman would come relatively cheap for a 1st-line forward. Montreal needs help on defense. If they would take Kaberle as part of a package for Cole, the salaries would work. But getting them to take Kaberle at this point would probably require throwing in at least one good NHL shutdown defenseman as well, or perhaps a good-sized forward prospect like Dalpe to replace Cole in their lineup.
The Canes would finally be facing facts and rebuilding. Unfortunately, they would be rebuilding the past and that has a limited future.
Balanced Lines for Staal
Getting Staal a truly balanced line is a fantastic start. As far as I am concerned, there are available choices for a balanced line; but it requires Maurice and the other coaches to end combinations that don’t work. Ruutu and Staal don’t have the magic. Stop it. LaRose and Staal don’t have the magic. Quit now.
It was a mistake to bring back Stillman because his presence kept Dalpe, Boychuk, and Bowman off the first line. We are paying the price for that choice now. Not going after a true right wing such as James Neal (who plays either wing) was a mistake. I am fine with not having Cole at the price Montreal paid; but either commit to playing young, talented forwards or get another big, fast, Jamie Benn or James Neal kind of power forward. I’m fine with playing either Ponikarovsky or Stewart with Staal as long as a fast, skilled wing is also on the line to balance it out. Dalpe or Boychuk or Bowman ought to have already been given a long series of games to be tested out.
As much as people laughed when I suggested picking up Brunnstrom from waivers, he is now getting praise in Detroit (after being waived by them). Bernier also was available on waivers. As long as the Hurricanes coaches balance the Staal line, even using Sutter at center and moving Staal to right wing, the first line will do fine. What is predictable is that lines that cause opponents to giggle rather than take heed are a huge issue for the Hurricanes. The future of the Hurricanes is bright. The presence looks muddled because the forwards are being mismanaged badly and some of the talented forwards may be a year or so away potentially.
So yes, balance Staal’s lines as is suggested; and the Hurricanes will be much easier to watch in 2011-2012 than they have been for much of this young season.
You do have to look at a few trades that JR probably missed out on. James Neal would have been a real interesting player on the Canes and you could assume that we could have put together a similar package as Pittsburgh. Troy Brouwer (who as many of you probably remember me repeatedly saying we should acquire) would have been a good acquistion. He isn’t a true 1st line player, but plays an overall solid game and will put up in the neighborhood of 40 to 50 points. He could play the LaRose role, yet is more skilled. I’m sure a prospect and draft pick could have enticed Chicago, since all they received was a low 1st round pick. I don’t know how David Booth would have been with the Canes, but the guy is a goal scorer and we need goals. It’s always difficult trading within your own division, but Tallon seems to like “grinders” and we have plenty of those from Mo’s system.
It's time for change! "If you want to change the culture, you will have to start by changing the organization." - Mary Douglas
The Path the Hurricanes Organization Should Take; But Likely Won't Take
The Hurricanes organization has a path before it that would work in the near term to make the Hurricanes a more competitive team short and long term. It’s a painful choice for Jim Rutherford, but it makes sense I’d argue given the constraints of finances under the present fanbase.
The Hurricanes organization is full of forwards who are excellent as second line, third line, and fourth line players. I think the forward prospects most likely to become full time first line impact players are Dalpe, Rask, and Boychuk. Bowman seems to be a fine second or third line forward; but probably that it his likely upper limit. To me Maurice and the coaching staff seem determined to pound square pegs into round holes. LaRose on the first line strikes me as that kind of choice.
The Hurricanes need to run their best three scoring lines and a fourth line as a shutdown line. The third line needs to be defensively sound, as do the first two lines; but instead of a “third line shutdown line,” the Hurricanes need to apportion time between the third line and fourth line as balanced lines with strong defensive emphasis. To do so, the first painful decision is required. Both LaRose and Dwyer would need to be traded. It’s unfair to them because they are both reliable NHL players; but it is necessary under the system I propose. The Hurricanes would need to get much bigger in size on the third and fourth lines. The Hurricanes need to follow an approach like Dallas or Phoenix for example. When the Hurricanes come to town, opposing teams know they are in for a tough, physical battle; and that afterwards, they will be reaching for the Ben-Gay. LaRose and Dwyer don’t fit in that system.
The first line would be morphed toward speed, but physicality and solid defense. There are numerous iterations; but for example, Dalpe/Sutter/Staal fit the pattern. All three are fast. Sutter is very solid defensively. Staal doesn’t play a crushing game, but he is a big, strong man. Dalpe has excellent size and speed.
The second line would be: Boychuk/Skinner/Ruutu. It is a scoring line but with Ruutu at right wing there are going to be some bruises coming the opponents’ way. I envision Skinner ultimately as a center. In addition to being a goal scoring machine, he has such quick hands and great body control with tremendous anticipation, he’s a natural center.
The third line would become Ponikarovsky/Jokinen//Stewart. It’s a big, strong, fast line that has offensive kick, but is also defensively sound. Stewart continues to be underrated, I think; and given time and coaching would do an excellent job. The third line also could be Ponikarovsky/Jokinen/Bowman.
The fourth line would be Brett Sutter/Brent/Bowman. Again, the line has good size, excellent speed; and is defensively sound while still having offensive upside.
One could also think of this approach as having two first lines and two third lines. As Rask and Riley Nash develop, the skill level at forward and the size would also increase. Assuming the Hurricanes in 2011-2012 continue on the slope they are currently on, then they will be picking somewhere around #5 to #8, I think. Add another top tier forward, and the Hurricanes are in good shape, assuming the organization develops and plays its young talent. Among the non-AHL players Rask is looking quite good. Gregory Hofmann is a sleeper and he could develop into an excellent scoring forward who battles.
The odds that Jim Rutherford ever trades LaRose or Dwyer is less than 1%. It’s understandable. They are both fine human beings and fine NHL players. On the other hand, they don’t fit in a system that emphasizes crushing hitting and winning puck battles in the crease. Ponikarovsky and Stewart are better suited for that job than either LaRose or Dwyer. As such, the Hurricanes are neither a truly skilled team like Montreal, nor a big, mean team like Dallas, Boston, Pittsburgh, or Phoenix. Without the salary budget to have three elite forwards on the first line, it’s a recipe for .500 hockey as long as the Hurricanes stick with overslotting players and with nailing the younger forward prospects to the bench. It’s unfortunate because the Hurricanes have the ingredients to make the transition. All that is lacking is organizational will to change a few players. In my view, all the Hurricanes players in the organization deserve equal loyalty; and what is best for the team in the long run has to be the top priority. Where somebody played at age 15 or how many goals he scored in the OHL is irrelevant. Each player deserves to be played based on what he contributes to the team. It’s really not to much to ask of the entire Hurricanes organization.
You are still over-estimating the talent we have. Boychuk has shown every possible indication of being a dud as far as prospects go. He really doesnt look like top-six material. Dalpe needs his chance now, you are right. Bowman is a third line player, as you say. Everyone else is far away from becoming an NHL caliber player.
I’d like to see some of those ideas tried though I’m not confident about the outcome. I want to find out if the prospects can hack it. I’m not confident that they can but I think it’s important for the Canes’ future to find out. I would it more interesting to watch the kids try to make it in the NHL than to watch overslotted players bash their heads against a low ceiling time and again. New things might not work, but watching the same old things fail repeatedly is no fun.
by curiouscanesfan on Nov 8, 2011 6:21 PM EST up reply actions
Great Analysis
There is one other dimension to the Staal linemate discussion. That is, why is hustle all to frequently missing from his game. Some games, some periods, some shifts his movement is not impressive. When he moves his feet and reaches with his stick good things happen, when he only reaches with his stick bad things happen. When there is jam in his stride I love his game. When there is seeming apathy, demonstrated by long glaring ice cold stares at referees after non-calls, long slow glides for a line change or return to the defensive side of the puck, undisciplined penalties taken I wonder what else is happening. Blaming linemates may explain a part of the production issue but not all. In fact it begs the question, has Staal been a good linemate to this point in the season?
LaRose’s increased production is at least partially due to his increase in TOI. I’m curious though if you are satisfied with Staal’s hustle thus far this season. I may be being hyper critical and blowing this observation way out of proportion to reality. If so, I need to stop. Help me. You see the game well.
Wow
I try to stay off the Staal bashing, but I’ve seen a little too much of both sides so far this year. But my take:
Staal is trying and has been working hard. His face-offs have markedly improved, and he seems to try harder when it’s really important. He’s been winning his puck battles, and trying to set up line-mates. Typically this year, they’ve failed to convert some nice passes, or no one’s been near the goal/scoring area. He’s been given musical linemates, so it’s tough to figure out where he’s going to go. He’s been double teamed a lot and gets a lot of ice time relative to anyone else. But there’s also a problem there.
Because he’s been working hard down low, he’s been caught when posession is lost, even when not his fault, and he can’t get back defensively so the team is burned. Secondly, I’ve seen him have some long shifts where he’s worked hard on the offensive shift again, without a lot of support, and he has nothing left to get back, or he has to skate off for a change and is tired. Mo double shiftinghim is not helping here. I see a lot of his "stalygagging as being tired after working hard, trying to do it all on his own. That’s got to stop. He needs to get support, or he needs to work as a line and not on his own, no matter who his linemates are. So some of the “lazy” comments I disagree with.
That said, a certain levels, it’s clear Staal gets fed up—with hilmself, with the score, with the ref’s, whatever, and he does cut back on the effort. He has also sometimes had poor coverage in the defensive zone when he has not been tired, but seemed to hope the defense or Cam would bail him out. He’s not been the most aggressive defensive forward, that’s for sure, and he tends not to play down low in front of the net and make the same defensive plays say Sutter makes… Staal seems to play “winger” defense, same as his linemates, with no one playing “center” defense. Not sure if I’m being clear with that one, but it seems to be the difference between Staal and better defensive centers—the good ones play in the dirt areas in their own zone—Staal doesn’t in many games.
So overall, on the offensive side, I like Staal’s hustle, but on the defnesive side, it’s mostly good, but yes, there are times when he takes the easy way out. On the hustle back side, he could be better, but his initial acceleration is not great, which is typical of big men, while his top speed is quite good. That tends to make me think he assesses some of his comebacks—he knows he doesn’t have the acceleration so will not make it back to stop the initial break, so he goes off or gives up. A better move would be to go back anyways, so if the initial break away is stopped, the he’s there for the follow up defense—Staal is weak there many times—not every time.
But, some of that is one Mo. I do not like some of Staal’s shift lengths. I don’t like some of Staal’s double shifting when he’s not scoring or assisting, and i don’t like using him as a top opiton on the PK. He does work a lot. but his best staistical seasons came which much lower ice times—of course he was younger and we had Brindy logging tons of minutes—and killing penalties, not Staal. But it seems to me, the more ice time Staal gets, the less energy he has to look good and contribute. I know as the big guy he’s probably telling Mo he wants the time, but frankly, as the coach….
…I’d dial it back, tell him to relax and just go play the game you love, the game you played in your back yard with your brothers, stop trying to do it all alone as the Captain, but do what you can and set the example when you are on the ice. I’m going to cut back some of your shifts son, but I want 100% each shift. I’ll take you off the PK, except for the 2nd 5 on 3 to give you a better rest to be more active on the ice at both ends. That’s what the team will see, and that’s what we want you showing.
I think that would work….
Thanks for your lesson.
That was much more than I hoped for, it is appreciated. Looks like it is a little of everything and much more than I could see. You ought to coach kids.
I used to do that for a while as an assistant coach… More to help out. Being in the USAF there’s to much away from home to do it anymore or to be the main man…
ex USAF myself
Thanks for your service. Explains your understanding of leadership. Only the military seems to consistently do that well.
Like I tried to say; this does not excuse Staal’s poor play. Just looking at past seasons games, I noticed Staal does his best when he has a linemates that play a particular style of game. One thing Staal has not had at all this season is a teammate that plays the high slot area. I think this is one reason (but not the only reason), his +/- is so bad. When their are 3 players around the goal and the puck is turned over, it almost instantly creates odd man rushes going the other way.
It's time for change! "If you want to change the culture, you will have to start by changing the organization." - Mary Douglas
Staal line change
I see that Mo is trying Boychuk & Poni on Staal’s line. Boychuk is a little closer to a Stillman type of game than anybody else on the roster (except for Jussi). And Poni is a guy that will get around the net. Staal is in a slump, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get a even strength point with this line. This group probably compliments his talents more than any other tried this season. I hope it works.
And I don’t care what anybody says, I think Mo read my FanPost; so I’m going to take some credit for this line. :)
It's time for change! "If you want to change the culture, you will have to start by changing the organization." - Mary Douglas
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