Tanking the Season: Five Reasons Why That Is A Terrible Idea; also ISS Draft Rankings

by hurricanefever on Dec 18, 2011 3:58 PM EST

Most of the mainstream hockey journalist are providing some prospectives that JR is indeed in a rebuild mode. Most CC posters have figured that notion out already or just having a hard time digesting that phrase as a possible truth. If he is in a rebuild mode, JR will need to maximize the assets he does not intend to retain for the 2012-13 season. Good assets have a tendency to grow in value closer to the trade deadline. Patience will have to be exercised. However, JR will also have to make decisions on “buying” talent in this period, especially talent which make sense long-term.

Once team management decides to rebuild, pundits sometimes call this a fire sale. Some posters regard this action as an opportunity to push the team record downward (or tank) in order to gain the rights to the #1 pick in the upcoming Draft. The reasoning is simple, a #1 pick can have a major effect on a franchise; reference Crosby as example. Other posters say that even in times of rebuild there still is an obligation to put the best product on the ice regardless of what that does to the final team standings. Compelling arguments each.

Tanking is a descriptor that has been around but I cannot recall it ever being associated with the Hurricanes. Here are a few of my reasons why tanking is a terrible idea. It is not all reasons, far from it, just the ones I think are the top five reasons.

At the end is a list of the latest ISS rankings of the top 10 draft eligible players with notes on the first five I picked up from a prior Bob McKenzie list. I know this is a very tempting list but it is shown as a way of reminding us there is a prize at the end of a bad season.

Top Five Reasons why Tanking is a Terrible Idea

1. There are many thousands of people who have already paid large amounts of money to see the remaining home games (more than half remain). If you want to keep them you are going to have to come as close as you can in producing the entertainment value they expect to see for that money. Finding new ticker payers to replace them could be impossible short-term.

2. There are a significant number of paying sponsors who expect an environment that is as happy as possible. An arena of unhappy folks is not an environment that sells a product. Keeping them beyond this season is important and likely vital to the heath of the club.

3. Tanking, or from one perspective as losing, turns away potential ticket buyers of all types. The future of the Hurricanes depends on new ticket buyers and returning ticket buyers.

4. Places more significant negative pressure on club finances. If you want the Hurricanes to make a decision to spend closer to the cap then tanking will likely provide the exact opposite effect. Less ticket sales, concessions, parking, sponsorships, and so on.

5. TV affiliations may be placed in future jeopardy. The club receives some revenue from TV broadcasts but more importantly provides significant direct exposure in the local market. If that exposure is reduced because of a bad product then the direct pipeline to potential new fans is reduced. It is also likely that new fans are not developed if they see a losing effort time and time again.

Here are the latest ISS draft rankings.

1. MIKHAIL GRIGORENKO RW 6’ 3 200 L Quebec QMJHL A top Russian prospect in the 2012 NHL Draft who scored 56 points in 35 games with Quebec.

2. NAIL YAKUPOV LW 5'10 189 L Sarnia OHL He's a dynamic goal-scorer but who isn't afraid to get his nose dirty to score goals and make plays.

3. FILIP FORSBERG RW 6'1 176 R Leksands SweAI NHL-ready package in terms of size and skill as an offensive pivot who was head and shoulders the most dominant player at the Ivan Hlinka Under-18 tournament in August.

4. RYAN MURRAY D 6'0 201 L Everett WHL He's considered the defenseman with the best all-around game. Not as flashy as some of the many offensive blueliners available this year, Murray can make an impact at both ends of the ice

5. MATT DUMBA D 5'11 183 R Red Deer WHL His leadership skills and incredible energy with and without the puck make him an elite pick. Dumba is a reckless and aggressive hitter but has a bomb for a shot and the wheels to get up the ice in a hurry.

6. JACOB TROUBA D 6'2 196 R USA U-18 USNTDP

7. BRENDAN GAUNCE C 6'2 215 L Belleville OHL

8. PONTUS ABERG LW 5'11 187 R Djurgarden SweE

9. MORGAN RIELLY D 5'11 190 L Moose Jaw WHL

10. CODY CECI D 6'2 207 R Ottawa OHL

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Comments

Your analysis is right on in all regards. I really can’t offer anything that would vary with what you lay out. I think disposing of players needs to be handled carefully. Taked Jokinen for example. He’s definitely having an off year, but has been a 30 goal scorer. I would be very leery of disposing of players like him assuming management is not privy to some physical problem (loss of speed, nagging injury, etc.)

Good topic introduced with excellent analysis.

by FoxtrotSierra on Dec 18, 2011 4:31 PM EST reply actions

that seems a little bit like one reason under five descriptions

people will stop watching. that’s bad.

If I cared more about my UNC side, I'd call myself "Tar Volon," and that'd be awesome.
Bolts, Canes, Preds (now in different conferences!). Canes mini-STH. Southern hockey solidarity
Rocky Top Talk

by Incipient_Senescence on Dec 18, 2011 5:45 PM EST reply actions

Sorry, but we’re not TRYING to tank. Reasons:

Muller wants to instill a culture of winning, of hard work, of competing the whole sixty minutes. that’s not possible when trying to tank.

Players are playing for position, contracts, and keeping ice time. They are not trying to tank, they’re trying to find their groove and excell. whether for us or the next team. they are not trying to tank.

You cannot control last place, plus there’s a lottery. So there’s no sense in playing for last.

We want to bring in a top six scorer—they aren’t going to want to come to a team that doesn’t want to compete, that isn’t working to turn things around. So we’re trying to do that. It’s not trading season, we’re in a freeze now anyway. Playoff hunts are tight so no one will give up a top assett at the current time. So JR is making connections and playing a wiating game on acquisitions. He’s not trying to tank.

Lastly, as mentioned we’ve got to at least compete to get fans to show up. That’s where the money comes from. Tanking destroys attendance, so the GM and Owner are no way planning on tanking and have a worry about future sales, current sales, etc.

So I can tell you…we are NOT trying to tank this season. It may work out we’re a bottom dwellar, but we’re looking better. We could have beat Fl tonight with just a little more scoring talent—like Skinner and Pitkanen whom we are missing, but we never replaced Cole adequately. JR’s gamble that the team of Stewart and Poni would do it didn;t work out. He recognizes that like he recognized his mistaek with kaberle. So he’s not gonna settle for another project forward again—hence the waiting. But don’t equate any of that with Tanking.

I’m out.

by Squeaky83 on Dec 18, 2011 8:07 PM EST reply actions

Actually the topic came to me when I saw so many posters advocating some level of tanking over the last couple of weeks. Seemed like a good topic to address since these next couple of months will set the direction of what the Canes will look like next year and give us a much clearer idea what the summer holds. I am absolutely sure the Canes Management structure and hopefully the players will give it all they have to make the second half a wonderful experience for the fans.

So it is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you can win a hundred battles without a single loss.
If you only know yourself, but not your opponent, you may win or may lose.
If you know neither yourself nor your enemy, you will always endanger yourself.
Sun Tzu circa 4th Century BC

by hurricanefever on Dec 19, 2011 9:30 AM EST up reply actions

Definitions and. Outcomes

Tanking: Losing on purpose by not performing at one’s best.
Not tanking: Perform at one’s best yet still lose due to lesser skill levels

Outcomes: Nearly identical draft position through all draft rounds.

The best outcomes for this season are those that best prepare this team for the 2012-2913 season. Those outcomes are achieved by:
1. Fully adequate rest to recover from injury for all players that have injuries.
2. Experiment with line combinations and special teams play to determine if the current talent level is being used optimally.
3. Showcase players that are determined to be tradeable. Trade them as their value is maximized.
4. Evaluate AHL talent in the role they are needed to play at the NHL level. Know for sure what you have in the pipeline, to know what the real draft and trade needs are going forward.
5. Establish the locker room culture of a team that expects to compete every night through hard honest efforts.

There is no reason for this team to “tank” this season. It just isn’t necessary. The right coaching decisions for this team going forward will give us a steady diet of enough close fought late game loses to insure excellent draft position. Finally the best reason to not tank is our new coach. This is his first season at this level in this position, Muller is in many ways in his rookie season and needs to be seen as the leader capable of moving the Canes forward to a winning tradition.

by surgalt on Dec 19, 2011 11:56 AM EST up reply actions

Ending up 28th, 29th, or 30th

It isn’t an intentional effort to throw the season. It’s a combination of factors that have been long-discussed. Jim Rutherford’s interview earlier this week makes it clear he will change this team significantly over the off-season if not sooner. I think we’ll see another significant off-loading of players at the trade deadline. It sounds as if Jim Rutherford is going to shed salary so he can make a major signing of a top six forward.

Given the fact only Parise is a Canes kind of player, Jim Rutherford will either have to toss out an offer sheet, but I don’t know he has ever done that, or work an off-season trade for an RFA. It doesn’t look good for UFA signings of first tier UFA top six forwards.

The top three forwards of Yakupov, Girgorenko, and Galchenyuk are increasingly reported as being essentially equal in abilities, so as long as the Hurricanes finish 28th or lower, they are in excellent shape. Add a top six forward via trade and one of the top three forwards, and the talent pool is significantly increased, even without discussing the prospects already in the system. It’s a short term failure of talent than can be fixed.

by abramsdoug on Dec 18, 2011 11:51 PM EST reply actions

Offer sheet

IIRC, JR made a “ridiculous” offer to Sergei Fedorov which Detroit matched, many moons ago. There was a huge bonus for getting to the SC Final (or thereabouts). I don’t remember whether Detroit made it that year, but it was “their time” for sure.

by LewPuls1 on Dec 19, 2011 8:58 AM EST up reply actions

Tanking=quitting

I don’t think anyone in the org is quitting.

The real question is, how many of the Canes assets will JR flip between now and October 2012? I think Staal, Ward, and Skinner are the only untouchables.

by Gillimus on Dec 19, 2011 12:26 PM EST reply actions

Sutter, Faulk, Pitkanen, LaRose

LaRose seems like a Muller kind of guy…..The others are not going no where.

In Kirk we Trust

by Mullett on Dec 19, 2011 1:16 PM EST up reply actions

No Quit Yet

We had times we did not play to our potential, but I admire the fight the team has displayed. I’ve seen more cycling the puck in the last two weeks then all of the first two months.

Yes we are talent deprived but that is only a deal or two away. Along with some more seasoning by our Baby Canes and we could make a quick turnaround!

In Kirk we Trust

by Mullett on Dec 19, 2011 1:19 PM EST reply actions

One Note

I was out of town this weekend, so I didn’t get to see the Canes/Panthers game. But I did get to talk with someone that has a good understanding of the NHL inner workings. It was quite a fun conversation. One thing that he brought up that is somewhat related to this topic is the expectation that the salary cap number for next season will drop around $2 or $3 million. This could mean that several upper cap teams could be in trouble. He said he’s not 100% sure what the NHL would do if that happened, but he said this offseason could be huge in the number of trades that occur; to keep certain teams cap compliant.

"We've got to risk implosion. We may explode into the biggest fireball this part of the galaxy has seen, but we've got to take that one in a million chance."
-- Captain Kirk in Star Trek 'The Naked Time'

by PackPride17 on Dec 19, 2011 1:24 PM EST reply actions

One-time Cap free buyout period has been mentioned.

As in NJ could rid themselves of Kovalchuk’s hideous contract scott-free. This seems like a likely option if the Cap is cut.

by JussiJuice on Dec 19, 2011 1:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

That is a very interesting notion. If true I would think the floor will move downward as well. Those teams who are hovering around the floor would certainly be in somewhat of a cat-bird seat to buy talent much like the Panthers did last year. Again, if true, having patience now might pay larger dividends later for the Canes.

by hurricanefever on Dec 19, 2011 1:36 PM EST up reply actions

TEAMS IN TROUBLE "IF" CAP DROPS

This was mentioned in an interview on NHL live awile back with Coyotes GM Don Maloney ,if it were to drop these teams would have to cut salary especially the bottom 7 that are already over the cap.
F D G T Payroll Cap payroll Cap space
Edmonton Oilers 16 9 2 27 0 $56,809,167 $61,551,666 2,748,334
Columbus Blue Jkts 15 8 3 26 0 $62,245,832 $62,613,976 1,686,024
Calgary Flames 14 10 2 26 0 $64,869,168 $63,310,000 990,000
Los Angeles Kings 16 8 2 26 0 $63,415,000 $64,189,642 110,358
New York Rangers 15 8 2 25 0 $68,056,167 $64,260,334 39,666
Vancouver Canucks 15 8 2 25 0 $68,348,500 $64,332,499 -32,499
Pittsburgh Penguins 15 10 2 27 0 $68,545,000 $65,165,834 -865,834
Toronto Maple Leafs 17 8 3 28 0 $68,960,000 $65,661,667 -1,361,667
Montreal Canadiens 16 10 2 28 0 $66,597,534 $65,878,843 -1,578,843
Washington Capitals 14 9 2 25 0 $67,275,833 $66,615,406 -2,315,406
Buffalo Sabres 16 10 2 28 0 $75,603,333 $68,115,357 -3,815,357
Philadelphia Flyers 16 10 2 28 0 $71,574,999 $70,720,038 -6,420,038

Players Needed is based on a 22 man roster

by hellfish on Dec 19, 2011 3:07 PM EST reply actions

Some teams would definitely be in trouble, but I’m not sure where you are getting your numbers. Edmonton has a good amount of players (both UFAs & RFAs) coming off the books at the end of this season, I don’t see them having to cut players because of the cap. Columbus also has some nice size contract expiring. And I don’t see where you are getting Philly with $70 million in salary cap. Where did your numbers come from?

by PackPride17 on Dec 19, 2011 3:49 PM EST up reply actions

Philly is $6.42+ OVER the cap ,the $70m is the actual cap #…here is the site.

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central

by hellfish on Dec 19, 2011 5:27 PM EST reply actions

Well, according to Capgeek; the Flyers have 20 players under contract at just below $60 million.

by PackPride17 on Dec 19, 2011 5:44 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

There not counting the $4.8m LTIR on Pronger and other players which will count when and if they comes back ,and the previous season’s 1.42 .Pronger and the other players will have to retire not to count + the 1.42 counts toward this season as well which reduces there cap room…capgeek complicates the numbers.

by hellfish on Dec 19, 2011 6:24 PM EST reply actions

Adding the numbers myself, Capgeek is correct in their numbers. I’m not sure how HockeyBuzz is doing it to get numbers that are so far off for next season.

by PackPride17 on Dec 19, 2011 7:47 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

+ bonus’s are not counted by capgeek and must count toward the cap as it’s built into there contract.

by hellfish on Dec 19, 2011 6:28 PM EST reply actions

The Flyers have 30 players under contract in which 22 counts against the cap…@ 20 players it adds up to just shy of $60m ,but there have to be at least 22 players on the roster per the CBA ,so there @ 70.7m and change(12) forwards, eight (8) defenseman and two (2) goaltenders including buy-outs.

by hellfish on Dec 19, 2011 8:19 PM EST reply actions

For next season, the Flyers have these players under contract.

10 forwards – Briere, Hartnell, Giroux, Schenn, Talbot, Simmonds, Van Riemsdyk, Couterier, Shelley, & Read @ $28.685 million cap hit

6 defensemen – Timonen, Pronger, Meszaros, Coburn, Walker, & Lilja @ $22.188 million cap hit

2 goalies – Bryzgalov & Bobrovsky @ $7.416 million cap hit

Total Cap Hit of $58.289 million cap hit. They are 2 players short of the NHL roster minimum of 20 (maximum of 23). Jagr& Carle are UFAs and Voracek is a RFA. And if Pronger’s concussion is more serious that it goes into next season, they can put him on LTIR and get $4.921 million in cap relief.

So if the cap did decrease by $3 million, they would probably not be able to resign Jagr & Carle (unless they traded away some other players), but they could fill out a roster without being over the cap.

by PackPride17 on Dec 20, 2011 9:37 AM EST up reply actions

Would love to sign Carle and isn’t Parise a UFA so the previous comment about signing him to an offer sheet is null and void

by Caniac Kid on Dec 21, 2011 10:46 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions

So, all that said, how are the Ducks, Who arguably have much better talent than we do, playing worse than us??? They are screwing with our draft position.

With Selanne, Perry, Getzlaf, Ryan, Koivu, how have they scored less goals than our team? Wouldn’t these guys be considered true top six talent—which everyone here says we’ve only got Two of (Skinner and Staal)

by Squeaky83 on Dec 21, 2011 10:21 AM EST reply actions

The Ducks have more top-end talent than us, but their depth is questionable. Our bottom 6 would probably destroy their bottom 6 and their goaltending has been bad this season.

Getzlaf, Perry, and Ryan aren’t quite producing how they are expected to produce and Koivu has been injured for a little while.

I still think JR should try to do whatever he can to get Ryan. He’s struggled so far this season, but he is a huge talent that would make this Canes team more competitive.

by PackPride17 on Dec 21, 2011 12:20 PM EST up reply actions

I agree on Ryan ,also Ruutu was an under-achiever ,and spent alot of time on IR ,as was Ladd here ,but the change of scenery was a win-win for both teams ,and i have no doubts about Ryans skill as a top line winger ,so if he’s goin let him come to Raleigh

by hellfish on Dec 21, 2011 1:53 PM EST reply actions