Being a buyer or seller: setting the price for each player

by curiouscanesfan on Feb 3, 2011 10:20 AM EST

There have been a lot of interesting discussions about whether the Canes should be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline and related discussions about which players should go, which players should stay to further a playoff run, and which prospects should or should not be bundled for what kind of return. These discussions haven't come close to reaching a consensus and yet there are several opinions that I think just about everybody seems to share:

1) The Canes' current roster isn't good enough to get out of the first round if the Canes make the playoffs.

2) The Canes' defense has to get better through external moves--significant help is not coming soon from the system.

3) The Canes need a top pairing defensive defenseman.

4) The Canes probably couldn't afford an established top pairing defensive defenseman if they did manage to land one in a trade and couldn't afford to sign one as a free agent.

5) The Canes' offense will probably improve some next year through the growth of individual prospects such as Boychuk and Dalpe, but there's serious doubt than any current Canes' prospect is going to be a first-line scoring forward that scares other teams and helps the Canes get the most from their top player, Eric Staal.

6) The Canes couldn't afford an established first-line scoring wing (such as Mike Richards, again Elsker's idea) if they landed one in a trade and couldn't afford to sign one as a free agent.

7) The Canes need more size and grit to compete with top-tier teams and keep their young prospects in one piece.

The list above details some serious constraints on JR's options and implies some priorities. The biggest constraint is that you can't just get the proven guy you want and plug him in immediately. Another big constraint is that you should be biased against finesse players, both small or nonphysical forwards and small, mostly offensive or not very physical defensemen.

We've thought about the big issues facing the Canes as how to get a top-pairing defensive defenseman and how to get a better first-line forward than current options. On reflection, I think we're grappling for a solution that's probably unrealistic given all the constraints and priorities: directly transforming current Canes with expiring contracts into the missing ingredients so that the Canes quickly become much more competitive. I think we should back off and think more along the lines that Elsker often recommends--asset management. But in this case, I think it would be interesting to think more in terms of asset building for mid to late next season or even the season after rather than for this year's playoffs or the start of next season. I suspect the constraints above are forcing JR to think in terms of less-than-immediate asset building, not creating an instant powerhouse through a couple of quick personnel moves.

If the Canes are building assets toward becoming a top-flight team as soon as realistically possible, then just about all current assets are on the table. Expiring contracts or not, almost everybody could go if the price is right. It's all a matter of setting the right price. Could Boychuk or Dalpe be traded? Not for a short-term fix for a playoff run this year, but for a long-term talent upgrade, yes--if the price is right. But the same is true of Ruutu as well, and probably true of every Canes' player except Staal, Ward and Skinner.

So I thought it might be interesting to shift the discussion from specific trades to the kind of value that would make it worth giving up each of the current Canes' players. We could state value in two ways: player description by role and quality (such as first-line scoring right winger, top-pairing defensive defenseman) or draft pick, not just by round but by position within the round (very specifically for the first round: top 10 first-round pick, top 3 first-round pick; a little less specific for rounds 2-5: early, middle or late second round pick, early, middle or late third round pick,etc.)

(A note on the need to add a first-line scoring wing: Most of us seem to think that Skinner should not play on the same line with Staal. I'm in the minority in still wanting the Canes to give that a serious look over an extended period, but it's unclear to me that putting Staal and Skinner together on the first line would be the best course. There's a chance it would be, but only a chance. Staal and Skinner are both first-line quality players. That's why it might make sense to put them together. Boychuk, Dalpe and some current Canes are definitely good enough to be second line players but might not be good enough to be first-line players. If Skinner and Staal worked out as linemates, everything else might fall into place. If. But for this discussion, it's probably best to assume that Skinner should not play on Staal's line.)

After the jump, how I would price some current Canes' players and prospects in these terms and an invitation to some of you more knowledgeable Caniacs to say how you would price Canes' players.

Prices that seem unrealistically high just mean that I don't think the Canes should trade the player unless they get an extremely compelling return. Besides the question of fair value, there's the question of whether the change would be worth disrupting the team, gambling the loss of a player who currently plays a vital role for an equal or superior talent who might or might not fit in as well with the Canes and their style of play.

The way I would price Canes' top prospects may seem high. That's because I think it makes little sense to trade a Canes' prospect who has emerged as an NHL player for a draft pick unless it's at the very top of the draft. Why start over with a different prospect who is less known and proven? On the other hand, if the draft pick is high enough, I'd make the trade. Boychuk for the 15th pick in the draft this year? No way. For the top overall pick? Absolutely. Also keep in mind that none of these values considers those established top-pairing and top-line players that the Canes would love to have but can't afford.

I found I don't think trading any established NHL player for a 4th round or lower pick really makes sense unless you're doing it to unload a high salary or a bad contract or to open a roster spot for a prospect who's ready.

They players I wouldn't make available at any price are Staal, Ward and Skinner.

OK - How I would price some Canes' players and prospects for rapid asset building:

Pricing Tier 1

Top 5 1st round draft pick, or top NHL-ready prospect projected as first-pairing defensive defenseman or first-line scoring right wing.

Tuomo Ruutu, Zach Boychuk, Zac Dalpe, Brandon Sutter

Pricing Tier 2

Top 10 first round or earlier draft pick, NHL-ready defensive prospect projected as first or second pairing defensive defenseman with size and grit or first-line scoring right wing.

Tim Gleason

Pricing Tier 3

Mid-first round or earlier draft pick, NHL-ready defensive prospect projected as second pairing defensive defenseman with size and grit or first or second line scoring right wing

Joni Pitkanen

Pricing Tier 4

1st-round draft pick in 15-30 range, established second pairing defensive defenseman, NHL-ready prospect projected as second-pairing defensive defenseman or true power right wing (even if not a big scorer)

Jussi Jokinen

Pricing Tier 5

Early 2nd round draft pick, NHL-ready prospect projected as second pairing defensive defenseman or true power right wing for 2nd or 3rd line (even if not much of a scorer)

Erik Cole

Pricing Tier 6

Late 2nd round draft pick; defensive prospect projected as 2nd or 3rd pairing defenseman with size and grit

Chad LaRose, Joe Corvo

Pricing Tier 7

Third round draft pick

Patrick Dwyer, Sergei Samsonov

A surprise for me in this exercise was learning that I attach a greater value to certain knowledge about what some current Canes players can do for the Canes than to speculation about what some theoretically more talented players are likely to do if the Canes trade for them. For example, I think LaRose is probably worth a 3rd round pick in league economics, given his talents and salary, but for the Canes, he's an excellent penalty killer who can fill a variety of roles, always with high intensity. So I wouldn't part with him for just any old trade offer. Also, though it doesn't make sense, I think Dwyer is the better player now, but LaRose has greater value to the Canes. Go figure.

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Comments

First of all

Thank you for the efforts and your thoughts on this as and as you pointed out many of us, have thought out loud and did the what if shell game before switching and swappiny players around on the what if train of thought and who would fit in and where…You for the most part have all the ducks that are or would be involved and what the canes could,would or might hopefully get or need in return…but there are just 2 things missing…or not considered…
1. The current talent pool as you said probably good for the first round again depending on who it would be and how healthy both teams would be…

2. Know what we as fans do know of the current roster & talent available in Charlotte…JR can in the first round stand pat and not work up a sweat or worry…again IF everyone is or was healthy…and looking at many of the other teams we have and will face the canes over all are in better health and staff wise for the most part…but there is the small matter of the next 31 games…and the trade deadline and who the Canes know for sure is out there..

For myself…whaile i do have a “shopping list” of players but again…like JR …i’ll just sit back and wait and see how the Canes as a team does in the next 5- 7 games…and that would still leave room to work on a trade or two if one could…

gee isn’t it fun to be back seat GM’s ??? Again..thanks for the effort asa you have given all of us much to think about & consider…

The moment you write off the Hurricanes,
they make you look bad !!

by CaniacSteve on Feb 3, 2011 2:47 PM EST reply actions

After the next 5-7 games

Thanks for setting a marker, CaniacSteve. The 7th game will be February 16th against the Devils. That is the point at which JR will have to decide what to do. If he waits any later, he might not have enough time to dicker and get the best value from any trades he makes.

It happens the seven next games are an interesting mix of opponents. The Flyers and Lightning will be big challenges. But the other five games are the Leafs tonight, the Devils twice and the Thrashers twice. Given the way the Thrashers have been playing and the lousy seasons that the Leafs and Devils are having, you would have to expect the Canes to win at least four of these seven games if they’re going to make the playoffs, and preferably five. If the Canes win three games or less in this stretch, surely JR will sell for all he’s worth.

After the 16th, the schedule gets a little tougher. The Devils turn up yet again, but the Canes also get the Flyers, Rangers, Penguins and Canadiens. Montreal is 6-2-2 in its last 10 games. The Canes could lose 4 of those 5 games. That means the Canes almost have to do very, very well in the next 5 to 7 games unless they want JR to come down to the lockerroom and hand a lot of them tickets out of town. All in all, between now and the trade deadline, the Canes have 6 games that should be tough and 6 that should be winnable. Of the six that should be winnable, though, the ones against the Thrashers will be against a highly motivated Atlanta team that’s ahead of the Canes in the standings, big, and in many ways a tough opponent for the Canes.

Do the Canes have to go 8 – 4 between now and February 26 to be buyer’s? 7 – 5? If I were JR, I think I’d be selling if the record is anything less than 7-5. If JR is thinking that way, that means the Canes, coming off a loss, almost have to beat the Leafs tonight.

by curiouscanesfan on Feb 3, 2011 5:43 PM EST up reply actions

Great schedule analysis. Canes need to find another gear.

And, on that point, I remember Cole saying something very interesting in a radio interview that occurred earlier in the season. He was talking about Mo’s coaching style, and how he divided the season up into segments, looking for a different emphasis point for each segment.

Surely post-ASG is one of Mo’s benchmarks and he also surely has the team’s attention at this point. Time to establish an identity and get serious about bringing it every night from here on out.

There’s very little (and maybe none) room for error for the remainder of the season. Got to beat the teams you should beat, and surprise one or two of the teams you shouldn’t.

Here we are now...entertain us.

by Elsker on Feb 3, 2011 6:31 PM EST up reply actions

Critical Assumptions

Good job getting the conversation rolling, curiouscanesfan.

As part of getting inside of JR’s head, it is important to establish his timeframe for development of the team and his priorities in doing so.

Short term, of course the org is always interested in making the playoffs, and has said many times that one just never knows what’s going to happen once a team is in, and that he likes our chances.

And, who wouldn’t, with a franchise goalie and a franchise center (or two/three?) in place? However, he’s also realistic and experienced enough to recognize that the team as currently configured has gaps and critical pieces that are still under development within the system.

So, while he will always have an eye to where we are in the current season, I do agree that his timeline for building a real playoff contender is a couple of years out, perhaps even further out than you speculated above.

Therefore, acquiring, developing, and layering assets that will converge on a roster in 2013 and beyond is what I believe is foremost in his mind.

And, he can afford to do so, since the core of the team will be just then entering their peak performance years, being 27+ years of age (Staal/Ward) or at least in their early to mid 20’s with some significant seasons of experience under their belts (Sutter/Skinner/McBain/Boychuk/Dalpe).

That timeline will also allow pieces that are in college right now (Dumoulin/Faulk) to join the party, and may even be able to include draftees as fresh as this summer’s crop to also contribute. Plus, it gives the org some time to sort out just what it is that we are holding down in Charlotte (Nash/Bowman/Osala).

Therefore, I’m going to advocate that while short term gain is important to JR (and PK!), it’s not the overwhelming driving force. We’re built with enough secondary scoring depth and a defense-by-committee approach that will allow us to lose certain critical parts without having the entire bus grind to a halt.

But, as you have also identified, we are short some functional parts right now. So filling those holes would certainly be one of the objectives of potential trades. However (and this is important), I don’t believe they have to be trades that pay off immediately for us. We can accept a prospect that’s a couple of years away from really contributing…because that’s our time line for a pending series of runs at the Cup.

Here we are now...entertain us.

by Elsker on Feb 3, 2011 2:55 PM EST reply actions

It’s funny that you bring up the timeline aspect of the rebuilding because that has been going around in my head quite a bit the last day or so. Specifically I was curious as to how the success this season was impacting JR’s timeline. During and immediately after last season I had the feeling that the team rebuild would take about three years total. Skinner has clearly accelerated that time frame as has Sutter’s continued development as a shut down player, Boychuk and Dalpe showing they are NHL ready, and the general success of the Checkers.

This has left me with two questions.
1) With all of this, what impact has this had on JR’s timeline?
2) Given the player development we’ve seen so far this season how important is it for the future of the young talent to see that the GM is behind them and for JR to be a buyer (of anything) and for the team to give the best effort to make the post season?

The first question is mostly idle curiosity, but the second one is really plaguing me. I’ve said many times why I think the team should trade Joni at the deadline and have suggested that the value of Cole over his replacement (Dalpe) isn’t too high and that a reasonable trade would be better off for the team. What I’ve failed to think about, and have only just begun to think about, is how important it may be to the development of Sutter, McBain, Skinner, Boychuk, and Dalpe to see how important it is to the GM and the organization to make the playoffs. There is much to be had by trading Joni and Cole (and Sergei and LaRose and White), and much to be lost if any of those players leave in free agency and the Canes get nothing in return. But is it maybe better for the development of the younger kids to see the team try to make the playoffs and play hard? Is it better for them to come up short and know they had the tools to compete or is it better to build for the future?

I do not envy JR’s job the next couple of months.

Don't trust me. I have psychological issues.

by C-Leaguer on Feb 3, 2011 3:37 PM EST up reply actions

Being a buyer now is a two-edged sword that mostly cuts the wrong way

C-Leaguer, I see your point about the impression JR might make on the Canes’ current young players by going out and buying more talent for a playoff run. That could make a favorable impression, but it’s more likely to take up roster spots and playing time that the young Canes on the roster and in the system need to develop. It will be really tricky bringing in talent for a playoff run without blocking the progress of players already in the system.

For some reason, your comments and Elsker’s talk of 2013 as JR’s target date brought Sanguinetti to mind. What if he were healthy now and had been doing well in Charlotte? If the Canes thought they could plug in a great skater like Sanguinetti and get a lot of the value that Pitkanen contributes because he’s such a great skater, Pitkanen would definitely be up for sale and maybe gone by now. Sanguinetti isn’t healthy, of course. Still, it would be interesting to know how much he figures in the Canes’ plans for the defense over the next two years. If they think of him as potentially a strong NHL offensive defenseman and as coming back healthy next year, won’t that make either Corvo or White expendable in addition to Pitkanen? If the target date for having a real contender is 2013 and McBain and Sanguinetti are two of the desired three offensive defensemen, why not get everything the Canes can get now for the older offensive defensemen? Faulk may be a real possibility for the 3rd offensive defenseman in 2013. Before too long, there might not be room for PItkanen, Corvo or White—not for any of them. If that’s true and the Canes aren’t likely to lock up a playoff spot this season, Pitkanen and White should both be gone at the deadline, with Carson and Rodney or a trade acquisition filling in for the Canes.

With McBain, Sanguinetti, Faulk and Gleason, the Canes can focus on getting two more really good defensive defensemen. If the Canes thought Dumoulin could play on the 3rd pairing in 2013, they actually might be able to go for a first-pairing defensive defenseman to fill out the defensive corps—even one who commands a high salary. Trading Pitkanen and White now could go a long ways toward making that happen by 2013.

by curiouscanesfan on Feb 3, 2011 5:20 PM EST up reply actions

I wouldn’t be shocked to see Justin Faulk in a Checkers/Hurricanes jersey next season… The kid is absolutely tearing it up at Minn-Duluth and had a great WJC.

The Canes just need to bite the bullet on Pits, trade him for the highest bidder, and collect assets for next year. White may be worth a 2nd-3rd Round pick as well. I’m sure with these trades we will acquire a filler D for the Playoffs if we make them, similar to Pothier last year.

by JussiJuice on Feb 3, 2011 5:53 PM EST up reply actions

Your description of the defense is exactly where I think we’re heading.

And, yes, if we had had a full season of Sanguinetti in Charlotte upon which to build, we’d be even more confident in the O side of our defense.

But, JR can always band-aid someone into that role, turning them loose at some future trade deadline if Sanguinetti is ready at mid-season to make the jump.

Here we are now...entertain us.

by Elsker on Feb 4, 2011 12:32 AM EST up reply actions

Your focus on 2013 as JR’s likely target date for having a real playoff contender is interesting. My assumptions about timeline were less precise and so less useful. Consistent with C-Leager’s post, I’m wondering how much Skinner’s unexpectedly high contributions at this stage, plus the good showings by Boychuk and Dalpe, have accelerated JR’s timeline. I don’t have a good sense of that since I’m not privy to any inside knowledge.

But here’s the funny thought that your excellent post prompted—2013 is too far out. The Canes could do great things in 2012, perhaps starting at midyear, if all goes well.

by curiouscanesfan on Feb 3, 2011 4:56 PM EST up reply actions