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Life of a draft pick

The vast majority of the Carolina Hurricanes (other than undrafted signees like LaRose and Samson) begin their NHL pro careers as draft picks. They're the precious tokens given each year (if not traded away by the org's GM, that is) for them to use to place their bets on the collection of mostly 18-year-old talent that's there to be divided amongst the 30 teams.

Some picks, of course, turn out to be total busts.  They just never make it in the NHL at all.  It's to be expected in the later rounds, where the odds are low for them to push their way past the talent in front of them.  But it sometimes happens at the highest levels, and Carolina has certainly had their share of busts, particularly before 2002, as discussed in an earlier August 1st FanPost I authored, entitled "Drafting for Wealth, Health, and Control".

The other extreme is a draft pick that not only turns into a NHL player, but plays for the org that drafted them their entire NHL career.  That can be as long as say Steve Yzerman's 22-year NHL career with the Red Wings.  Maybe Staal, or even Ward, will be that type of player for us, even if not for so many seasons.

And, in between are draft picks that turn into NHL players but only for days, weeks, months, or even years, but flame out and are either dropped off NHL payrolls or traded away.  

But the shrewd GM wants to identify these casualties early and pick the latter trade option as quickly as possible, so as to keep the flame that is that draft pick alive, ideally as a serviceable NHL asset, but as a potential NHL prospect or the pure form of a future draft pick, if nothing else. 

As an example, follow the bouncing ball that began as a second-round draft pick that JR made in 2003, the year we selected Eric Staal 2nd overall.  We had the 31st overall pick that season (finished dead last, but lost the lottery, so slid back to #2 in the first round) and selected Danny Richmond (D).

Danny is a scrappy D-man that more than made up for lack of size with "spunk", but when the opportunity came along to make a straight-up trade with Chicago in January 2006 for Anton Babchuk, with a side exchange of 4th round draft picks to make the values work out (their way).

Suddenly, JR had upgraded his 2003 2nd rounder to a 21st overall 2002 D-man that was a bit of a project (abandoned by Chicago) but right up JR's reclamation project alley.  Plus, he provided depth as JR was loading up for our Cup run and it was obvious from his 10 games so far that season that Danny was not a serviceable piece of that puzzle.

Anton didn't play in the playoffs, but the team lobbied to have his name added to the Cup and he even shared a day with it in Kiev, Ukraine with teammate Oleg Tverdovsky.  So...a little context as to why JR was so miffed when Anton balked on him later.  But, I digress. :-)

Danny spun off for partial NHL seasons, bouncing up and down from Norfolk to Chicago and is currently with the Toronto Marlies.  And JR funneled Anton's return from the KHL into a partial season for us (evaluation and scouting purposes) before converting his original 2003 second-rounder D-man pick into defenseman Ian White.  Admittedly, the valuation is a bit fuzzy here, since it was a four-player trade:  Anton Babchuk/Tom Kostopoulos <-> Ian White/Brett Sutter.  But the D variable is what we're tracking, with the forward variable being it's own basic equivalency of "serviceable now" for "futures" trade that GM's routinely perform.

You know the rest, as White now sleeps with the Sharks, and JR's original 2003 second rounder now lives and breathes amongst us in the form of Derek Joslin, a 2005 fifth-round D-man that appears to be a NHL serviceable asset.  Yes, I know he was part of a separate "future considerations" deal, but I believe it was an "earnest money" side transaction between the GM's for the White deal to be reserved for them while valuations were determined, assuming that there were probably other interested parties.

Plus, note that JR also holds the Shark's second-round draft pick in 2012...which will be a full nine years later from the original 2003 draft pick that began life as current Toronto Marlie defenseman, Danny Richmond, and spun off current 23-year-old Canes defenseman Derek Joslin on its way to potentially yet another a new life as a NHL'er beginning in 2012.

Way to keep that wave rolling, JR.  :-)

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Nice post, Elsker.

It’s pretty wild to think the Canes’ 2nd-round pick in 2003 turned into Joslin and a 2nd in 2012. JR seems to be pretty adept at extracting value for high draft picks.

2010 brought the Canes Jeff Skinner, essentially replacing Ray Whitney who was a free-agent pickup.

09 first-rounder Philippe Paradis is now Juri Tlusty.

The 08 draft stocked the Checkers. 07 was Sutter, 06 was McBain, 05 turned into Gleason, and 04 turned into Ruutu.

JR’s built the core of the Canes through the draft. Even Joni Pitkanen came to the team via a 98 3rd-rounder — Erik Cole.

by Gillimus on Mar 6, 2011 8:26 AM EST reply actions  

Very nice narrative - what could that 2012 2nd rounder be worth?

Elsker, with your excellent narrative of how that one 2003 2nd round pick started out as Danny Richmond and made an interesting journey through the years, I couldn’t resist summarizing how the Canes used other 2nd round picks. It’s a way to speculate about your story’s ending. That depends on how much of an asset that 2012 2nd rounder turns out to be in the flesh. Everybody on this site knows about past Canes’ draft picks, but the summary brought the possible value of that 2012 2nd rounder into focus for me.

Canes’ 2nd Round Draft Picks Since Danny Richmond

2004 Justin Peters
2005 Nate Hagemo
2006 Jamie McBain
2007 Used in Recchi deal
2008 Zac Dalpe
2009 Brian Dumoulin
2010 Justin Faulk, Mark Alt

Because they were picked so recently, the jury is out on Dalpe, Dumoulin, Faulk and Alt, but what we’ve seen and heard suggests good things about them as individuals and a positive trend over time. There are very promising reports on Dalpe, Dumoulin and Faulk. We hear less about Alt. With our own eyes, we’ve seen Dalpe show impressive speed and an impressive shot in a Canes’ uniform. To some of us, he looks like he could step in and upgrade the Canes’ top 6 right now. (That’s partly because of how good Dalpe looks, and partly because of a topic we don’t need to get into to cloud this story.)

McBain will be a solid NHL defenseman provided he’s able to get stronger and he might become more than that. I think Peters is an NHL goalie but he may never get a chance to settle that question in Carolina – the Canes’ backup goalie plays so little that I doubt they’ll use another 2nd rounder on a goalie in the Ward era. The Recchi deal in 2007 is a reminder of how a 2nd rounder can bolster the roster for a playoff run.

Hagemo is the only clear mistake on this list of 2nd rounders. (Somebody put a curse on that 2005 draft, though Jack Johnson did turn into Tim Gleason and lesser assets).

Given how the Canes have been using 2nd rounders, it looks as though the player drafted with that 2012 2nd rounder will probably turn out to be a bigger piece of the Canes’ future than Derek Joslin. Joslin’s value remains uncertain, but he looks more valuable to me than the 5th rounder that the Sharks used to draft him—he may even have the makings of a solid NHL defenseman.

Getting another Dalpe, Faulk or Dumoulin + Joslin for Ian White looks pretty good to me. Getting that for Danny Richmond looks spectacular.

by curiouscanesfan on Mar 6, 2011 10:22 AM EST reply actions  

Options

We have indeed scored well in the second round lately, that’s for sure. Pre-2003, we were maybe 50-50 in finding NHL players in the second round, and even then those finds were not at the talent level of what we’ve secured lately.

So, either the talent pool is getting deeper (which is entirely possible with the growth of hockey in the USA) and/or we’re getting better with our scouting. I actually think it’s both.

Nonetheless, if JR is not in a gambling mood with this “extra” second round pick in 2012, besides our own, he can also use this “free” pick as what has become the standard price for an identified RFA player, usually bundled with a prospect.

Therefore, here lies JR’s ability to do with this pick what he has done with it ever since he acquired it (briefly in the name of Danny Richmond)…use it for a known D-man instead of hoping he would get one.

First Anton, to provide the offensive skill needed in our lacking D-corps, then Ian to provide two-way balance (another failed Joni companion) and D-corps stability, now Joslin for depth, but also able to perhaps secure a top-4 RFA D-man that would bridge us over the next couple of seasons until some of the Dumoulin/Faulk/Biega era talent matures to NHL levels.

Or, if he think’s he’s good by summer of 2012 with his top-4 D then he can either use it to goose the top-6 forward talent, or re-invest in futures by actually making that 2nd round pick.

The man has some options, which as a fellow businessman, I totally admire. :-)

Here we are now...entertain us.

by Elsker on Mar 6, 2011 3:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Yup, JR has kept that pick alive. Knowing his proclivities against drafting a D, I would expect the pick to turn into a winger.

by Gillimus on Mar 6, 2011 3:50 PM EST up reply actions  

And the Canes need more production from the top two lines. Drafting a winger in 2012 is chock full of tiger’s blood and adonis dna.

Sorry, couldn’t resist. Although I am concerned about Charlie Sheen’s health, as a guy I am totally behind giving the finger to the establishment. I envy the circumstances that allow him to speak his mind, even though he makes no sense.

by Gillimus on Mar 6, 2011 3:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Can we Draft Charlie Sheen? I assume he is still a free agent given he has never signed. I hear he can destroy an earthworm with his words alone, just imagine what he can do with his fire breathing fists.

by JussiJuice on Mar 6, 2011 11:57 PM EST up reply actions  

very nice article. interesting.

Editing Manager of Canes Country.com

by Bob Wage on Mar 6, 2011 12:02 PM EST reply actions  

2003 Draft

Here’s the 2003 draft, where with the benefit of 20-20 hindsight, we second-guessers can see the names with which JR had to choose from when Danny Richmond was selected 31st overall.

I see Shea Weber and Patrick O’Sullivan going later in the 2nd round, along with Jim Howard.

But what about Tobias Enstrom and Dustin Byfuglien going in the 8th round?

Here we are now...entertain us.

by Elsker on Mar 6, 2011 11:56 PM EST reply actions  

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