Notes at Noon: What is Market Value For Erik Cole?
Carolina Hurricanes winger Erik Cole finds himself in a great position this offseason. Not only is he coming off an excellent season in which he played in all 82 games while scoring 26 goals and 52 points, but if he waits until July 1, he could be one of the most sought after free agents on the open market.
The teams who are looking in the market to beef up this summer won't necessarily find a plethora of superstars to choose from. After Brad Richards and a few others, the talent pool gets a bit shallow.
Following the jump is a listing of the top 36 unrestricted free agent forwards, who at this time, have yet to re-sign with their current teams. You'll see that Cole has scored more goals than all but two of them and his point total is in the top five.
| 2011 UFA Listing as of 5/3/11, (from CapGeek.com) | |||||
| Name | Age | Previous | 2011 | 2011 | |
| Cap Hit | Goals | Points | |||
| 1 | Brad Richards | 31 | $ 7,800,000 | 28 | 77 |
| 2 | Simon Gagne | 31 | $ 5,250,000 | 17 | 40 |
| 3 | Alex Kovalev | 38 | $ 5,000,000 | 16 | 34 |
| 4 | Michael Nylander | 38 | $ 4,875,000 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Teemu Selanne | 40 | $ 4,500,000 | 31 | 80 |
| 6 | Jason Arnott | 36 | $ 4,500,000 | 17 | 41 |
| 7 | Tim Connolly | 29 | $ 4,500,000 | 13 | 42 |
| 8 | Michael Ryder | 31 | $ 4,000,000 | 18 | 41 |
| 9 | Michal Handzus | 34 | $ 4,000,000 | 12 | 30 |
| 10 | Steve Sullivan | 36 | $ 3,750,000 | 10 | 22 |
| 11 | Cory Stillman | 37 | $ 3,533,000 | 12 | 39 |
| 12 | Marco Sturm | 33 | $ 3,500,000 | 5 | 16 |
| 13 | Alex Ponikarovski | 31 | $ 3,200,000 | 5 | 15 |
| 14 | Alex Frolov | 28 | $ 3,000,000 | 7 | 16 |
| 15 | Radim Vrbata | 29 | $ 3,000,000 | 19 | 48 |
| 16 | Milan Hejduk | 35 | $ 3,000,000 | 22 | 56 |
| 17 | Erik Cole | 32 | $ 2,900,000 | 26 | 52 |
| 18 | Jamie Langenbrunner | 35 | $ 2,800,000 | 9 | 32 |
| 19 | Chris Clark | 35 | $ 2,633,333 | 5 | 15 |
| 20 | Tomas Fleischmann | 26 | $ 2,600,000 | 12 | 31 |
| 21 | Sergei Samsonov | 32 | $ 2,533,333 | 13 | 40 |
| 22 | Vaclav Prospal | 36 | $ 2,480,000 | 9 | 23 |
| 23 | Todd White | 35 | $ 2,375,000 | 1 | 2 |
| 24 | Antti Miettinen | 30 | $ 2,333,333 | 16 | 35 |
| 25 | Andrew Brunette | 37 | $ 2,333,333 | 18 | 46 |
| 26 | Chuck Kobasew | 29 | $ 2,333,333 | 9 | 16 |
| 27 | Scottie Upshall | 27 | $ 2,250,000 | 22 | 34 |
| 28 | Brooks Laich | 27 | $ 2,066,667 | 16 | 48 |
| 29 | Nikolai Zherdev | 26 | $ 2,000,000 | 16 | 22 |
| 30 | Ethan Moreau | 35 | $ 2,000,000 | 1 | 6 |
| 31 | Mark Recchi | 43 | $ 1,950,000 | 14 | 48 |
| 32 | Mike Modano | 40 | $ 1,750,000 | 4 | 15 |
| 33 | Radek Dvorak | 34 | $ 1,700,000 | 7 | 22 |
| 34 | Chad LaRose | 29 | $ 1,700,000 | 16 | 31 |
| 35 | Alex Tanguay | 31 | $ 1,700,000 | 22 | 69 |
| 36 | Jussi Jokinen | 28 | $ 1,700,000 | 19 | 52 |
One player who scored more goals, Teemu Selanne, might retire. But if he does return, he would most likely go to Anaheim. So if a team is looking for goal scoring, as well as the physical type of game that Cole can bring, they will be targeting the Oswego, New York native.
Several general managers have promised their respective fanbases that they will be dipping into the free agent pool this summer. Buffalo, Ottawa, and Toronto could all be potential suitors.
So what kind of money might Cole get? Certainly more than the $3,000,000 he made last season. At age 32, Cole will also most likely be looking for a long term deal, (three years or more).
What should the Hurricanes offer? Jim Rutherford has already gone on record saying that he wanted to re-sign the hometown favorite, but how far should he go?
Let's take a look at some of the signings from last summer which might be used as comps:
- Matt Cullen, Wild - 3 years, $10.5 million - (16 goals and 48 points in 2009-2010)
- Matthew Lombardi, Preds - 3 years $10.5 million - (19 goals and 53 points in 2009-10)
- Alex Ponikarovski, Kings - 1 year $3.2 million - (21 goals and 50 points in 2009-10)
- Alex Frolov, Rangers - 1 year $3 million - (19 goals and 51 points in 2009-10)
- Colby Armstrong, Leafs - 3 years $9 million (15 goals and 29 points in 2009-10)
Cole's agent could look at any of those signings and make an argument that his client deserves more.
The good news for Rutherford is that Cole likes it here, he has family in the area, and has close friends on the team. But this is business and it would be surprising if the power forward did not test the market, just to see what kind of numbers are out there.
If you were Jim Rutherford, what kind of deal would you offer him? Interesting days are ahead.
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I think I speak for many when I say that is one hell of a playoff beard.
Phoblographer and Finn Aficionado
SISU
good point – I don’t think Skinner can grow one, not sure what Sutter can offer, and we all remember Eric Staal’s attempt in 2006. However, the better playoff beards don’t mean the best players – ask Mike Commodore and the Blue Jackets.
Bob, one other poll question you need to ask is how long a contract? You say 3yrs in your article, but we got stiffed last season (only played about 40 games). If we get 82 games each of the next 3 years like we saw this last year, then I’d go 3yrs/$8million, but higher priority is to sign #36 on this list and to decide what to do with #34.
I’d like to bring Cole back (and that is tough for an RPI guy to say), but there are 2 costs – one $$$ and one is playing time for a checker. Or do we invest the money in picking someone else off of this list that is either a power forward or more healthy than Cole.
Giving Cole any contract over 2 years is a mistake, and anything over 3 is just insane. He has proven time and time again that he shows up in contract years.
As far as cash goes, keep it around the 3M mark and I won’t panic too much.
We tend to over-reward these guys who’ve been around for awhile though (i.e Cole, LaRose, etc), so I fully expect a Ruutu-esque contract and I’m going to throw things.
He has been playing at Ruutu salary level and brings a speed and power dynamic we don’t have elsewhere… he probably would make at least 3.5 mil on any other team.
Problem is Jussi also put up 50 points, and previously 30 goals…. If not for injury, Jussi would also be a 20+ goal scorer—so do they get the same contract? Cole brings more physical play and more speed so he should get more, but I think we need both. Cole we can’t replace (both on the market or from within). Jussi brings intangibles as well.
I’d say give Jussi three years @ 2.0 to 2.5 Average, Cole two years at 3.3 to 3.5. Cole might want more years to take the “Discount”. If we do, we should keep him to 3.3 to 3.5 Cap hit and Maybe go 3.8, 3.3, 2.8 which shold make everyone happy.
Agreed on the contract year sentiment. I’d love to think his increase in play was solely due to being healthier/stronger, but it is hard to ignore the contract year factor. Every player tends to play a little harder when their immediate future is depending on it.
I wouldn’t like to see him get more than $3.5 million a year for 2 years. The Canes can’t continue to overpay players when the budget gets tighter every year. Unfortunately, being that this is an extremely thin FA market, I can see him getting $4+ from a desperate team. Will the Canes match? Probably… We love to overpay our favorites.
3/ 4 years
3.7 M + make him the powerskating coach, and give him an “A”!!!!
3.25 to 3.5 for 2 seasons. The Jim Rutherford loyalty long-term contract has come back to haunt the team more often.
Jokinen is interesting, and may be the clue in which direction the team will move forward in regards to younger, developed talent. If you really want to start bringing up the Charlotte kids, then he’s expendable. A Finn-fanatic cult hero is gone, but younger players with arguably the same – or at least longer term potential – takes his place.
1 yr @ 500k
just for kicks
"We've got to look at this," Columbus general manager Scott Howson said Monday after exit interviews with the players. "Because whatever we have right now isn't working."
I think...
One thing that would put the icing on the cake for Cole is to make him an Assistant Captain, he’s definitely got great chops when it comes to being a veteran who gave the team some advice. Seen him talking to Skinner and others on the bench a lot. I honestly don’t think Tim Gleason earned that A this past year. Maybe he was more vocal in the locker room, but he sure didn’t lead by example on the ice. Cole did on the bench and the ice…
Ready for the Canes to win the Cup again! :)
by thebl4ckd0g on May 3, 2011 1:57 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I disagree about Gleason, he played a full season for the first time in his career, his +/- isn’t great, but nobody on the team (except Sutter and Allen with 20ish games) had a decent rating in that category. He was the only defense-first d-man the team had all year, I think if you take him out and give his ice time to anybody else in the system the ‘Canes don’t sniff 80 points this season, I could say the same about half the players on the roster.
by Kubota on May 3, 2011 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Cole and other free agents on the list
Great compilation, Bob.
Cole was excellent this season and I hope the Canes re-sign him, but there are risks as you indicate. Cole is extremely valuable, plays in all situations and, very importantly, he’s shown he can play extremely well on a line with either Staal or Skinner. The Canes’ system has talented forwards but not big, fast scoring wings—there’s no apparent internal replacement for Cole. There’s not another free agent forward like Cole to plug in either.
Laich and Zherdev are different but interesting. They have size and speed and are considerably younger. If nothing else, Laich and Zherdev provide reference points for the Canes in deciding what kind of contract to offer Cole. All three of the players have scored 20+ goals multiple times, but there are lots of differences otherwise.
Laich is good at faceoffs and plays a lot on both the PP and PK. He’s the kind of hard-nosed player that Mo would probably like. Zherdev is highly skilled, a big, fast right wing with a right shot. He doesn’t play on the PK. He seems to have great hands and to be more of a playmaker than Cole, though he’s not the same kind of physical presence as Cole or constant threat to drive to the net. It’s unclear whether Zherdev would fit in Mo’s system- he certainly doesn’t come over as hard-nosed, but he does have good size and shouldn’t be easy to push around. With Boychuk and Staal, Zherdev would make an interesting, highly skilled scoring line that’s tough to defend. There’d be a lot of playmaking ability and scoring to take pressure off of Staal and speed to keep up with him.
Interestingly, over Cole’s career he has averaged 0.63 PPG. Zherdev has averaged 0.62. Zherdev is 6 years younger. Cole scores a hair more goals, Zherdev get a hair more assists. Zherdev only played 720 minutes this season and got 22 points, including 16 goals. Cole played 1514 minutes, more than twice as much TOI, to get his 52 points.
Cole is more valuable than Zherdev, but by how much? How much better can Zherdev get? If Cole, who turns 33 in November, is looking for a 3-year contract at $4 M +, the Canes would probably be wise to consider a more affordable alternative. If they could sign both Laich and Zherdev for around $5 M combined, that would represent better value than Cole alone at $4 M. But Cole for two years at $3 M would make more sense for the Canes. I just doubt the Canes can get Cole for that. I have a feeling that the Sabres with new ownership will make Cole an offer that the Canes’ can’t match. They play fast and need another goal scorer. Cole was born in upstate NY and went to college there. He’d be a hometown favorite.
I agree that Buffalo is certainly somewhere Cole could end up. I have even seen things from their media about their hometown boy and Pegula is looking to make waves, I could easily see it happening.
Zherdev is an interesting option, I kind of hoped the Canes would pick him up last season. He has been in doghouse a few times in Philly this year and historically has been a bit of a problem (such as in Columbus where he demanded a higher pay threatening to bolt to Russia)… but he has also scored 60+ points before, has size, and could be a decent top-6 forward for the Canes.
What is he worth?
The real question is what can we pay him.
He is easily worth $3.5 million for 3 years. But if JR signs him to a contract like that, I will not be happy. If he wants that, he can walk and get it somewhere else.
A few things about Cole:
1) He is a contract year player. As said earlier, JR’s signing of long-term contracts, especially 3 year contracts, has come back to bit up numerous times in recent memory (Samsonov, Brind’Amour [to a lesser extent], Kaberle, etc.). His play this year has resulted from him being healthy, yes, but that is not it. He isn’t magically the best player he has ever been. He’s in a contract year.
2) Old, injury prone. 32 isn’t old to be fair, but for someone who plays the way Cole does, at his intensity level, with a long history of prior injuries, that is old. I don’t think if he can last 3 more years playing at the same level. We will not see the same Cole we saw this year for the next 3 years if that happens.
3) His biggest asset I think is his veteran leadership. Honestly I think we could replace most of his scoring from within. But his ability to perform in clutch situations and to be a mentor is vital to the team.
With all that said, Cole needs to take a hometown discount to keep playing here. Signing him to what he is worth would be a disappointment, and more evidence for people to use to show that we have to pay to keep free agents here.
Why not structure him a deal that has performance incentives, like they do in football. ie, if he scores x amount of points, or x goals, he gets a bonus for x $$$.
I’ve wondered why hockey contracts aren’t structured more like this anyway. Any insight as to why they aren’t, anyone?
Just saw him today at Maggie Moos in Brier Creek. Seems to be growing his playoff beard regardless of how we finished :)
colesy has a new nickname = maggie moo
"We've got to look at this," Columbus general manager Scott Howson said Monday after exit interviews with the players. "Because whatever we have right now isn't working."
by Sergeant Stinky on May 4, 2011 7:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Covet the Coveted
Any other fan of any other franchise (looking for UFA help) in any other city as would look at this list and probably covet Cole. He and a sparse few others on the list are commodities in a supply weak market. We need to keep him here and give him a 3 year deal worth a little over $10M. If not, allow Cole, Larose, Pits, and Jussi to simply leave and embrace the development of younger players for a brighter future.
2 years to the Cup
Stats are only part of a story
Forslund calls Cole “the ignition switch”. We can’t get anyone to fill his role, despite the typical “grass-is-greener on the other side of the hill” attitude of many fans. He should have been an “A” this year and should be next year. He behaves like an assistant captain, certainly.
He is not a great player, though he’d have been better if not for the neck injury, but he is one of our best players. We have a history of letting good players go because they’re too expensive (Cullen and Ward after we won the cup) and we suffered severely for it (did not make playoffs)
I think sittler27 would tell you that the idea an athlete plays harder in a contract year is ridiculous bullpucky. I think Cole finally recovered (perhaps with a better exercise regime) from the neck injury. So expecting him to deteriorate in non-contract years is more insulting than realistic.
Certainly he’ll deteriorate because he’s on the downhill side of 30.
Front-weighted 3 years for $10.5M would be good for us; unfortunately someone else will offer more, and then it’s up to Cole (and JR and PK).
stats seem to point that, overall, players have their most productive years in contract years
whether that’s an athlete playing harder or just a coincidence is open to interpretation
"We've got to look at this," Columbus general manager Scott Howson said Monday after exit interviews with the players. "Because whatever we have right now isn't working."
by Sergeant Stinky on May 4, 2011 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
The prevalence of it would suggest coincidence is unlikely.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on May 6, 2011 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions
I don;t know where to look to find them, but there’s been two good articles and studies on this, and you might be incorrect. These studies show pretty conclusively that players often had their best years during contrct years, and their performance after contract attainment was very definitley sub par. This was more true for mid level and down players than for true SuperStars (Jagr not included).
As you might guess using basic phychology—your livelyhood depends on your next contract: how much you get, here you go, who you play for, your ability to influence negotiations all depends on your performance that year (and yes also to previous years, but it’s mostly what have you done for me lately…) and it’s motivating. This is especially true when your career as a hockey player is limited in time. SImilarly, it’s natural to relax a little once you’ve gotten the contract and not have the same drive (see Maslow…).
Obviously this is a generalization and not true of each individual, but holds true for this idea as a whole.
Give the guy what he deserves
He played his ass off this year, and has had a great impact on the younger players. He has always been there for the fans and the team (other than injuries). 3.5 for 3 years and a NTC. Management should be ashamed of not allowing him to wear the “A”. He has shown he earned it, time and time again…..he showed up a lot more that one of the other guys with the “A”.
Give him the “A” tell him you’re sorry and make his wallet fat…………
Who are you taking the “A” away from? They certainly aren’t taking it from Gleason as he was voted by the players themselves as the Steve Chiasson winner this year. Sutter is the face and leader of our youth, if they plan on stripping him of the “A” then they might as well trade him. Either way it would not go over well.
by JussiJuice on May 4, 2011 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Who's going to loose the "A"
Since everybody cant be a winner, somebody’s got to loose and Gleason is the loser this round. I am a fan of his but he did not play like he should be wearing the “A” this year. He is a team guy and everyone likes and respects him, but he should have to earn the “A”.
Sutter is the leader of the lost boys, but Cole has the ears as well. The NTC would be icing on the cake, just to get hime to stay, I’d throw that in for kicks.
You can technically have as many as you want.
Some teams rotate more than two (home and road splits are popular), but you can only skate two at a time if you have a captain suited up. But taking a full-time letter away from a player who’s not on his way out the door is a slight to that player and his abilities, on ice and off—no doubt about it.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on May 6, 2011 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Exactly.
This is my biggest problem with shuffling the captaincy assignments.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on May 6, 2011 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think the NTC is a good idea but wouldn’t be against the money u suggest or elevating him to an A. We need this guy!
by OzzyCane on May 4, 2011 10:29 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
NTC
If an NTC for someone who has “always” (but for when we ditched him to Canada) been a Canes player will also save us $1.5M or more, it’s worth it. Budgets require sacrifices, no?
"A"
I think someone referred to a team, maybe even the Canes, where some guys alternate the “A”, or one was “A” at home and one away, something like that. I confess I don’t know why Sutter is an A, but no you don’t want to take it away from him.
Sutter has always been a very mature kid and player, particularly for his age.
They wanted to affirm that through the alternate captaincy. And yes, you can name as many potential As as you want, but you can only skate 1 C and 2 As or 3 As if your captain is hurt.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.
by MichaelProcton on May 6, 2011 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions
The Caps are gonna go after Cole, you watch
"We've got to look at this," Columbus general manager Scott Howson said Monday after exit interviews with the players. "Because whatever we have right now isn't working."
by Sergeant Stinky on May 5, 2011 11:36 AM EDT reply actions























