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Notes at Noon: What is Market Value For Erik Cole?

Carolina Hurricanes power forward Erik Cole in 2009 playoffs. (photo by LTD)

Carolina Hurricanes winger Erik Cole finds himself in a great position this offseason.  Not only is he coming off an excellent season in which he played in all 82 games while scoring 26 goals and 52 points, but if he waits until July 1, he could be one of the most sought after free agents on the open market. 

The teams who are looking in the market to beef up this summer won't necessarily find a plethora of superstars to choose from.  After Brad Richards and a few others, the talent pool gets a bit shallow.

Following the jump is a listing of the top 36 unrestricted free agent forwards, who at this time, have yet to re-sign with their current teams.  You'll see that Cole has scored more goals than all but two of them and his point total is in the top five.

Star-divide

 

2011 UFA Listing as of 5/3/11, (from CapGeek.com)
Name Age    Previous 2011 2011
    Cap Hit Goals Points
1 Brad Richards 31  $       7,800,000 28 77
2 Simon Gagne 31  $       5,250,000 17 40
3 Alex Kovalev 38  $       5,000,000 16 34
4 Michael Nylander 38  $       4,875,000 0 0
5 Teemu Selanne 40  $       4,500,000 31 80
6 Jason Arnott 36  $       4,500,000 17 41
7 Tim Connolly 29  $       4,500,000 13 42
8 Michael Ryder 31  $       4,000,000 18 41
9 Michal Handzus 34  $       4,000,000 12 30
10 Steve Sullivan 36  $       3,750,000 10 22
11 Cory Stillman 37  $       3,533,000 12 39
12 Marco Sturm 33  $       3,500,000 5 16
13 Alex Ponikarovski 31  $       3,200,000 5 15
14 Alex Frolov 28  $       3,000,000 7 16
15 Radim Vrbata 29  $       3,000,000 19 48
16 Milan Hejduk 35  $       3,000,000 22 56
17 Erik Cole 32  $       2,900,000 26 52
18 Jamie Langenbrunner 35  $       2,800,000 9 32
19 Chris Clark 35  $       2,633,333 5 15
20 Tomas Fleischmann 26  $       2,600,000 12 31
21 Sergei Samsonov 32  $       2,533,333 13 40
22 Vaclav Prospal 36  $       2,480,000 9 23
23 Todd White 35  $       2,375,000 1 2
24 Antti Miettinen 30  $       2,333,333 16 35
25 Andrew Brunette 37  $       2,333,333 18 46
26 Chuck Kobasew 29  $       2,333,333 9 16
27 Scottie Upshall 27  $       2,250,000 22 34
28 Brooks Laich 27  $       2,066,667 16 48
29 Nikolai Zherdev 26  $       2,000,000 16 22
30 Ethan Moreau 35  $       2,000,000 1 6
31 Mark Recchi 43  $       1,950,000 14 48
32 Mike Modano 40  $       1,750,000 4 15
33 Radek Dvorak 34  $       1,700,000 7 22
34 Chad LaRose 29  $       1,700,000 16 31
35 Alex Tanguay 31  $       1,700,000 22 69
36 Jussi Jokinen 28  $       1,700,000 19 52

 

One player who scored more goals, Teemu Selanne, might retire.  But if he does return, he would most likely go to Anaheim.  So if a team is looking for goal scoring, as well as the physical type of game that Cole can bring, they will be targeting the Oswego, New York native. 

Several general managers have promised their respective fanbases that they will be dipping into the free agent pool this summer.  Buffalo, Ottawa, and Toronto could all be potential suitors.

So what kind of money might Cole get?  Certainly more than the $3,000,000 he made last season. At age 32, Cole will also most likely be looking for a long term deal, (three years or more). 

What should the Hurricanes offer?  Jim Rutherford has already gone on record saying that he wanted to re-sign the hometown favorite, but how far should he go?

Let's take a look at some of the signings from last summer which might be used as comps:

  • Matt Cullen, Wild - 3 years, $10.5 million - (16 goals and 48 points in 2009-2010)
  • Matthew Lombardi, Preds - 3 years $10.5 million - (19 goals and 53 points in 2009-10)
  • Alex Ponikarovski, Kings - 1 year $3.2 million - (21 goals and 50 points in 2009-10)
  • Alex Frolov, Rangers - 1 year $3 million - (19 goals and 51 points in 2009-10) 
  • Colby Armstrong, Leafs - 3 years $9 million (15 goals and 29 points in 2009-10)

Cole's agent could look at any of those signings and make an argument that his client deserves more. 

The good news for Rutherford is that Cole likes it here, he has family in the area, and has close friends on the team.  But this is business and it would be surprising if the power forward did not test the market, just to see what kind of numbers are out there. 

If you were Jim Rutherford, what kind of deal would you offer him?  Interesting days are ahead.

Poll
How much do you think the Hurricanes should offer Erik Cole in annual salary?
$2 million or less
26 votes
$3 million
227 votes
$4 million
107 votes
$5 million
7 votes
$6 million or more
4 votes
not sure
3 votes
they should not re-sign him
6 votes

380 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 44 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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I think I speak for many when I say that is one hell of a playoff beard.

Phoblographer and Finn Aficionado
SISU

by Jamie Kellner on May 3, 2011 12:08 PM EDT reply actions  

and that can’t be under-rated…

by Squeaky83 on May 3, 2011 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, no joke!

Yeah, well, you know, that's just like, uh, your opinion, man.

by anonymousJ on May 3, 2011 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

good point – I don’t think Skinner can grow one, not sure what Sutter can offer, and we all remember Eric Staal’s attempt in 2006. However, the better playoff beards don’t mean the best players – ask Mike Commodore and the Blue Jackets.

Bob, one other poll question you need to ask is how long a contract? You say 3yrs in your article, but we got stiffed last season (only played about 40 games). If we get 82 games each of the next 3 years like we saw this last year, then I’d go 3yrs/$8million, but higher priority is to sign #36 on this list and to decide what to do with #34.

I’d like to bring Cole back (and that is tough for an RPI guy to say), but there are 2 costs – one $$$ and one is playing time for a checker. Or do we invest the money in picking someone else off of this list that is either a power forward or more healthy than Cole.

by jbwhite99 on May 3, 2011 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Giving Cole any contract over 2 years is a mistake, and anything over 3 is just insane. He has proven time and time again that he shows up in contract years.

As far as cash goes, keep it around the 3M mark and I won’t panic too much.

We tend to over-reward these guys who’ve been around for awhile though (i.e Cole, LaRose, etc), so I fully expect a Ruutu-esque contract and I’m going to throw things.

by jdboone21 on May 3, 2011 12:10 PM EDT reply actions  

He has been playing at Ruutu salary level and brings a speed and power dynamic we don’t have elsewhere… he probably would make at least 3.5 mil on any other team.

Problem is Jussi also put up 50 points, and previously 30 goals…. If not for injury, Jussi would also be a 20+ goal scorer—so do they get the same contract? Cole brings more physical play and more speed so he should get more, but I think we need both. Cole we can’t replace (both on the market or from within). Jussi brings intangibles as well.

I’d say give Jussi three years @ 2.0 to 2.5 Average, Cole two years at 3.3 to 3.5. Cole might want more years to take the “Discount”. If we do, we should keep him to 3.3 to 3.5 Cap hit and Maybe go 3.8, 3.3, 2.8 which shold make everyone happy.

by Squeaky83 on May 3, 2011 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed on the contract year sentiment. I’d love to think his increase in play was solely due to being healthier/stronger, but it is hard to ignore the contract year factor. Every player tends to play a little harder when their immediate future is depending on it.

I wouldn’t like to see him get more than $3.5 million a year for 2 years. The Canes can’t continue to overpay players when the budget gets tighter every year. Unfortunately, being that this is an extremely thin FA market, I can see him getting $4+ from a desperate team. Will the Canes match? Probably… We love to overpay our favorites.

by JussiJuice on May 3, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

My Guess is 3 years 3.5 per season……He makes Staal a better player therefore it makes sense to keep him.

Desperation from Day One......let's not wait until the end!

by Mullett on May 3, 2011 12:22 PM EDT reply actions  

3/ 4 years

3.7 M + make him the powerskating coach, and give him an “A”!!!!

by randycane on May 3, 2011 1:10 PM EDT reply actions  

3.25 to 3.5 for 2 seasons. The Jim Rutherford loyalty long-term contract has come back to haunt the team more often.

Jokinen is interesting, and may be the clue in which direction the team will move forward in regards to younger, developed talent. If you really want to start bringing up the Charlotte kids, then he’s expendable. A Finn-fanatic cult hero is gone, but younger players with arguably the same – or at least longer term potential – takes his place.

by Adam's Journey on May 3, 2011 1:21 PM EDT reply actions  

agree about Cole price and contract duration.

by Go_Shelf on May 3, 2011 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

1 yr @ 500k

just for kicks

"We've got to look at this," Columbus general manager Scott Howson said Monday after exit interviews with the players. "Because whatever we have right now isn't working."

by Sergeant Stinky on May 3, 2011 1:41 PM EDT reply actions  

I think...

One thing that would put the icing on the cake for Cole is to make him an Assistant Captain, he’s definitely got great chops when it comes to being a veteran who gave the team some advice. Seen him talking to Skinner and others on the bench a lot. I honestly don’t think Tim Gleason earned that A this past year. Maybe he was more vocal in the locker room, but he sure didn’t lead by example on the ice. Cole did on the bench and the ice…

Ready for the Canes to win the Cup again! :)

by thebl4ckd0g on May 3, 2011 1:57 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

I disagree about Gleason, he played a full season for the first time in his career, his +/- isn’t great, but nobody on the team (except Sutter and Allen with 20ish games) had a decent rating in that category. He was the only defense-first d-man the team had all year, I think if you take him out and give his ice time to anybody else in the system the ‘Canes don’t sniff 80 points this season, I could say the same about half the players on the roster.

by Kubota on May 3, 2011 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Maybe for the first part of the season, but with White and Allen/Joslin, Glesaon could have sat and we would have lost nothing. In fact, we probably would have improved.

by hurricane9 on May 3, 2011 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Cole and other free agents on the list

Great compilation, Bob.

Cole was excellent this season and I hope the Canes re-sign him, but there are risks as you indicate. Cole is extremely valuable, plays in all situations and, very importantly, he’s shown he can play extremely well on a line with either Staal or Skinner. The Canes’ system has talented forwards but not big, fast scoring wings—there’s no apparent internal replacement for Cole. There’s not another free agent forward like Cole to plug in either.

Laich and Zherdev are different but interesting. They have size and speed and are considerably younger. If nothing else, Laich and Zherdev provide reference points for the Canes in deciding what kind of contract to offer Cole. All three of the players have scored 20+ goals multiple times, but there are lots of differences otherwise.

Laich is good at faceoffs and plays a lot on both the PP and PK. He’s the kind of hard-nosed player that Mo would probably like. Zherdev is highly skilled, a big, fast right wing with a right shot. He doesn’t play on the PK. He seems to have great hands and to be more of a playmaker than Cole, though he’s not the same kind of physical presence as Cole or constant threat to drive to the net. It’s unclear whether Zherdev would fit in Mo’s system- he certainly doesn’t come over as hard-nosed, but he does have good size and shouldn’t be easy to push around. With Boychuk and Staal, Zherdev would make an interesting, highly skilled scoring line that’s tough to defend. There’d be a lot of playmaking ability and scoring to take pressure off of Staal and speed to keep up with him.

Interestingly, over Cole’s career he has averaged 0.63 PPG. Zherdev has averaged 0.62. Zherdev is 6 years younger. Cole scores a hair more goals, Zherdev get a hair more assists. Zherdev only played 720 minutes this season and got 22 points, including 16 goals. Cole played 1514 minutes, more than twice as much TOI, to get his 52 points.

Cole is more valuable than Zherdev, but by how much? How much better can Zherdev get? If Cole, who turns 33 in November, is looking for a 3-year contract at $4 M +, the Canes would probably be wise to consider a more affordable alternative. If they could sign both Laich and Zherdev for around $5 M combined, that would represent better value than Cole alone at $4 M. But Cole for two years at $3 M would make more sense for the Canes. I just doubt the Canes can get Cole for that. I have a feeling that the Sabres with new ownership will make Cole an offer that the Canes’ can’t match. They play fast and need another goal scorer. Cole was born in upstate NY and went to college there. He’d be a hometown favorite.

by curiouscanesfan on May 3, 2011 2:42 PM EDT reply actions  

I agree that Buffalo is certainly somewhere Cole could end up. I have even seen things from their media about their hometown boy and Pegula is looking to make waves, I could easily see it happening.

Zherdev is an interesting option, I kind of hoped the Canes would pick him up last season. He has been in doghouse a few times in Philly this year and historically has been a bit of a problem (such as in Columbus where he demanded a higher pay threatening to bolt to Russia)… but he has also scored 60+ points before, has size, and could be a decent top-6 forward for the Canes.

by JussiJuice on May 3, 2011 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

What is he worth?

The real question is what can we pay him.

He is easily worth $3.5 million for 3 years. But if JR signs him to a contract like that, I will not be happy. If he wants that, he can walk and get it somewhere else.

A few things about Cole:

1) He is a contract year player. As said earlier, JR’s signing of long-term contracts, especially 3 year contracts, has come back to bit up numerous times in recent memory (Samsonov, Brind’Amour [to a lesser extent], Kaberle, etc.). His play this year has resulted from him being healthy, yes, but that is not it. He isn’t magically the best player he has ever been. He’s in a contract year.

2) Old, injury prone. 32 isn’t old to be fair, but for someone who plays the way Cole does, at his intensity level, with a long history of prior injuries, that is old. I don’t think if he can last 3 more years playing at the same level. We will not see the same Cole we saw this year for the next 3 years if that happens.

3) His biggest asset I think is his veteran leadership. Honestly I think we could replace most of his scoring from within. But his ability to perform in clutch situations and to be a mentor is vital to the team.

With all that said, Cole needs to take a hometown discount to keep playing here. Signing him to what he is worth would be a disappointment, and more evidence for people to use to show that we have to pay to keep free agents here.

by hurricane9 on May 3, 2011 2:58 PM EDT reply actions  

7 Years / 49MM with a NTC. Count on it.

Satan is just a coping mechanism for monotheists.

by wilmnoca on May 3, 2011 3:11 PM EDT reply actions  

I’d like to see him at 3 years at $2.8 a year. He’s had ups and downs over his current contract, and if he’d like security, he’d have to take a little less per year. But maybe 2 years is better in the long run, because then they can renegotiate a retirement contract before he turns 35.

by rubyhawk on May 3, 2011 4:17 PM EDT reply actions  

Just saw him today at Maggie Moos in Brier Creek. Seems to be growing his playoff beard regardless of how we finished :)

by Kyle13 on May 3, 2011 10:03 PM EDT reply actions  

colesy has a new nickname = maggie moo

"We've got to look at this," Columbus general manager Scott Howson said Monday after exit interviews with the players. "Because whatever we have right now isn't working."

by Sergeant Stinky on May 4, 2011 7:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

Covet the Coveted

Any other fan of any other franchise (looking for UFA help) in any other city as would look at this list and probably covet Cole. He and a sparse few others on the list are commodities in a supply weak market. We need to keep him here and give him a 3 year deal worth a little over $10M. If not, allow Cole, Larose, Pits, and Jussi to simply leave and embrace the development of younger players for a brighter future.

2 years to the Cup

by Caniac233 on May 4, 2011 7:48 AM EDT reply actions  

Which btw would make it about impossible for us to make the cap floor minimum salary…

by Squeaky83 on May 4, 2011 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

Stats are only part of a story

Forslund calls Cole “the ignition switch”. We can’t get anyone to fill his role, despite the typical “grass-is-greener on the other side of the hill” attitude of many fans. He should have been an “A” this year and should be next year. He behaves like an assistant captain, certainly.

He is not a great player, though he’d have been better if not for the neck injury, but he is one of our best players. We have a history of letting good players go because they’re too expensive (Cullen and Ward after we won the cup) and we suffered severely for it (did not make playoffs)

I think sittler27 would tell you that the idea an athlete plays harder in a contract year is ridiculous bullpucky. I think Cole finally recovered (perhaps with a better exercise regime) from the neck injury. So expecting him to deteriorate in non-contract years is more insulting than realistic.

Certainly he’ll deteriorate because he’s on the downhill side of 30.

Front-weighted 3 years for $10.5M would be good for us; unfortunately someone else will offer more, and then it’s up to Cole (and JR and PK).

by LewPuls on May 4, 2011 10:00 AM EDT reply actions  

stats seem to point that, overall, players have their most productive years in contract years

whether that’s an athlete playing harder or just a coincidence is open to interpretation

"We've got to look at this," Columbus general manager Scott Howson said Monday after exit interviews with the players. "Because whatever we have right now isn't working."

by Sergeant Stinky on May 4, 2011 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

The prevalence of it would suggest coincidence is unlikely.

Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.

Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.

by MichaelProcton on May 6, 2011 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don;t know where to look to find them, but there’s been two good articles and studies on this, and you might be incorrect. These studies show pretty conclusively that players often had their best years during contrct years, and their performance after contract attainment was very definitley sub par. This was more true for mid level and down players than for true SuperStars (Jagr not included).

As you might guess using basic phychology—your livelyhood depends on your next contract: how much you get, here you go, who you play for, your ability to influence negotiations all depends on your performance that year (and yes also to previous years, but it’s mostly what have you done for me lately…) and it’s motivating. This is especially true when your career as a hockey player is limited in time. SImilarly, it’s natural to relax a little once you’ve gotten the contract and not have the same drive (see Maslow…).

Obviously this is a generalization and not true of each individual, but holds true for this idea as a whole.

by Squeaky83 on May 4, 2011 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

Give the guy what he deserves

He played his ass off this year, and has had a great impact on the younger players. He has always been there for the fans and the team (other than injuries). 3.5 for 3 years and a NTC. Management should be ashamed of not allowing him to wear the “A”. He has shown he earned it, time and time again…..he showed up a lot more that one of the other guys with the “A”.
     Give him the “A” tell him you’re sorry and make his wallet fat…………

by littlepig on May 4, 2011 10:02 AM EDT reply actions  

Who are you taking the “A” away from? They certainly aren’t taking it from Gleason as he was voted by the players themselves as the Steve Chiasson winner this year. Sutter is the face and leader of our youth, if they plan on stripping him of the “A” then they might as well trade him. Either way it would not go over well.

by JussiJuice on May 4, 2011 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Who's going to loose the "A"

Since everybody cant be a winner, somebody’s got to loose and Gleason is the loser this round. I am a fan of his but he did not play like he should be wearing the “A” this year. He is a team guy and everyone likes and respects him, but he should have to earn the “A”.
   Sutter is the leader of the lost boys, but Cole has the ears as well. The NTC would be icing on the cake, just to get hime to stay, I’d throw that in for kicks.

by littlepig on May 4, 2011 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

Gleason was hurt, and played thru a lot of pain by most accounts. That type of player wears the “A”. I don’t think Sutter would mind giving his A to Cole for a few years, because Sutter is a team guy.

by Hockeydog on May 4, 2011 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

You can have 3 alternates

by hurricane9 on May 4, 2011 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

You can technically have as many as you want.

Some teams rotate more than two (home and road splits are popular), but you can only skate two at a time if you have a captain suited up. But taking a full-time letter away from a player who’s not on his way out the door is a slight to that player and his abilities, on ice and off—no doubt about it.

Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.

Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.

by MichaelProcton on May 6, 2011 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly.

This is my biggest problem with shuffling the captaincy assignments.

Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.

Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.

by MichaelProcton on May 6, 2011 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t think the NTC is a good idea but wouldn’t be against the money u suggest or elevating him to an A. We need this guy!

by OzzyCane on May 4, 2011 10:29 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

JR already got bitten by giving everyone and their mom NTCs last time around. I doubt he hands another one out any time soon unless that person is Sutter or Skinner.

by JussiJuice on May 4, 2011 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

As I said earlier, paying him market value would be a mistake. 3 years would also be a mistake. But a NTC too? Huge mistake.

by hurricane9 on May 4, 2011 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

NTC

If an NTC for someone who has “always” (but for when we ditched him to Canada) been a Canes player will also save us $1.5M or more, it’s worth it. Budgets require sacrifices, no?

by LewPuls on May 4, 2011 1:14 PM EDT reply actions  

"A"

I think someone referred to a team, maybe even the Canes, where some guys alternate the “A”, or one was “A” at home and one away, something like that. I confess I don’t know why Sutter is an A, but no you don’t want to take it away from him.

by LewPuls on May 4, 2011 1:15 PM EDT reply actions  

Sutter has always been a very mature kid and player, particularly for his age.

They wanted to affirm that through the alternate captaincy. And yes, you can name as many potential As as you want, but you can only skate 1 C and 2 As or 3 As if your captain is hurt.

Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.

Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.

by MichaelProcton on May 6, 2011 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

The Caps are gonna go after Cole, you watch

"We've got to look at this," Columbus general manager Scott Howson said Monday after exit interviews with the players. "Because whatever we have right now isn't working."

by Sergeant Stinky on May 5, 2011 11:36 AM EDT reply actions  

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