History Dictates That Canes Should Draft Defense With 12th Pick
by Bob Wage on Jun 11, 2011 12:00 PM EDT
in 2011 NHL Entry Draft
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What kind of player can the Carolina Hurricanes expect to draft with the 12th overall selection in the NHL Entry Draft? If past results indicate anything, they can expect to pick up a very fine player.
And oddly enough, over the past 10 years the best players selected at number 12 have been defensemen. Let's take a closer look:
2010 - Cam Fowler
Some draft projections had Fowler going as high as number three, and they all had him in the top 10. But somehow, he slipped to number 12 and no one in Anaheim is complaining.
2009 - Calvin De Haan
Injuries have slowed the defenseman down a bit, but when you can generate a point a game from the blueline in juniors, there's always hope for you at the next level. The Islanders are still high on this kid.
2008 - Tyler Myers
This 12th overall pick had an immediate impact in Buffalo as he contributed 48 points and was +13 in his rookie campaign. He went on to win the Calder.
2007 - Ryan McDonagh
Originally drafted by the Montreal Canadiens, McDonagh was included in the mega trade which sent Scott Gomez to the Habs. Still developing, he's been pretty solid for the Rangers so far.
2006 - Bryan Little
Leave it to Atlanta to break the streak of defensemen, but Little has been a productive player for the Thrashers over the years.
2005 - Marc Staal
Many in Carolina wish this player had been the third pick in the draft that year and not number twelve, but hindsight is 20/20.
2004 - AJ Thelan
He is a defenseman, but here is one 12th overall pick that never panned out as expected. Originally a big time prospect at Michigan State, he's bounced around a lot and has even played a couple of seasons for the Florida Everblades. The Minnesota Wild made the selection.
2003 - Hugh Jessiman
The New York Rangers have the distinction of making what's been called the worst pick in the one of the most talent laden first rounds in NHL Draft history, the 2003 draft. The winger finally played a couple of games in the NHL last season for Florida. Perhaps the Rangers should have chosen a defenseman instead? (NOTE: Checkers fans should recognize him, he played a couple of partial seasons in Charlotte).
2002 - Steve Eminger
This defenseman was originally drafted by the Capitals. He's not a superstar, but has played the blueline in the NHL since the 2002-03 season.
2001 - Dan Hamhuis
After spending all of his career in Nashville, the solid defenseman was a highly sought after free agent last summer. He eventually signed a six year deal with Vancouver which will average $4.5 million per year.
In eight of the last ten drafts, defensemen were selected at number 12 and most of them have proven to be very good choices. The Hurricanes certainly don't need to be shy if a highly touted blueliner falls in their lap, and there are several who look good this year.
As always, it will be an interesting draft.
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Thanks Bob
and if we look at the current rosters of the Canes & the Checkers..some would ask do we really need yet another d-man?? myself if i was JR i’d error on the side of having an extra one as one never knows when the Canes or checkers would or could lose another “carson” huh ?? stay Cool Bob and again…thank you
What did you do during the summer when the playoffs are over ?
Go Canes & Checkers !!
I vote for Jim Rutherford to stay the course and go for big forwards this draft. What first round pick dman whom the Canes drafted is presently on the Canes’ Roster?
That’s kind of a chicken or the egg argument. Rutherford hasn’t shown much of a propensity for drafting defensemen earlier.
Play to Your Strengths
It is a chicken and egg consideration. I would argue that the Hurricanes present scouts have demonstrated they can pick forwards well as first round picks, with the notable exception of Paradis and I think Sheldon Ferguson was not in charge of that decision if I remember correctly. On the other hand, if I recall the roster correctly, the Canes have exactly 0 defensemen whom they drafted in the first round. This draft is a much better draft than many people predicted and its strength includes both large forwards and defensemen. The Canes need large forwards who hit and this draft will give them a chance to fix that weakness. On the other hand, I wonder if Jim Rutherford will find a way to generate another later round first round pick in 2011 to grab a defenseman in the later round. If it were me, I’d have my eyes on Tyler Biggs. He could well fall to #25-#30. If he’s around, the Hurricanes might be able to somewhat painlessly grab him by trading two second round picks to the team picking. Adding Mark McNeill and Tyler Biggs would go a huge way toward adding the big, fast, mean element to the forward prospects.
One may think that’s why we don’t have anyone that would work into a top pairing on almost any NHL team, or one hoping to be a consistent playoff contender.
good point and one I was going to bring up. This team can’t afford to buy a top pairing defenseman in free agency. If you ever want a top pairing guy, you’re going to have to draft him at some point and they usually don’t come in the 2nd round. (although the Canes could get lucky)
I’m currently working on an article which provides argument that the Canes could have had the worst defense in the league last year.
Editing Manager of Canes Country.com
It is far more difficult to assess the learning curve of defensemen than forwards. As a result, taking a defenseman is far more risky than selecting a forward in the first round. Additionally, in general by the time a defenseman gets settled in after being picked in the first round, he is a UFA. All the Canes will have done is trained well a player who crushes them. Until the Hurricanes can afford to pay salaries at or very nearly at the NHL salary cap, they need to stay the course. This year in particular, they can solve for the next five to six years the lack of big, strong, fast, physical forwards on the team and in the system.
They could stick with that strategy and draft another Philippe Paradis :-)
I understand the drawbacks about choosing a defenseman, but there must be some reason other than blind chance that in 8 of the last 10 drafts, the number 12 pick has been a defenseman. My guess would be that the top forwards are gobbled up in the first group of picks, then teams grab the top defensemen in the next grouping.
The title of the article is a bit tongue in cheek, but as the last paragraph of the article says, I don’t think the Canes should shy away from a d-man if a top rated one falls to them.
Editing Manager of Canes Country.com
So,
I believe the draft is a crap shoot, with the exception of the first few picks, every year. So, I’d rather take a chance on one of the upper end Dmen in this draft, even if we have to trade up a few slots for him, because that’s what we NEED, as opposed to drafting a forward simply based on his size. We need the big forward also I know, but right now I think a Dman is the more pressing issue. I think JR messed up by not giving what the Ducks wanted last year and getting Fowler.
There are plenty of undersized puck moving D in the draft this year.
For forwards, Rocco Grimaldi will probably drop to you guys. I think he could be a good pick. He’s small, but other than that probably has a better skillset than RNH.
Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
To help with basic Timeonice functions.
If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Jun 12, 2011 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I see the Canes taking one of Duncan Siemens, Nathan Beaulieu, Oscar Klefbom, or Jamie Oleksiak who are 6’3"-6’7", 190lbs – 240 lbs. Not exactly undersized and all project as potential top-pairing D.
Unless Ryan Murphy unexpectedly falls to them, they can find a big 2-way guy pretty easily with a better potential than any of our current D prospects except maybe Faulk.
That’s actually one of the better jokes I’ve heard today. All 5’6" of Rocco. Or then again maybe you were serious and you were thinking Jr. Hurricanes.
Heard of Patrick Kane? One scouting report read something like this:
“I first saw Rocco play midget hockey. He was dominant. I thought surely he can’t keep doing this against bigger boys. He did. I then thought, surely he can’t do this at U18s. He did. I thought this can’t continue into the CHL. He continued.”
Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
To help with basic Timeonice functions.
If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Jun 15, 2011 8:57 AM EDT up reply actions
It is far more difficult to assess the learning curve of defensemen than forwards. As a result, taking a defenseman is far more risky than selecting a forward in the first round.
I think Copper and Blue ran the numbers for the past decade, and no, defensemen are more likely to pan out. It’s more difficult to project a defenseman’s upside, but they are generally safe picks in the top rounds.
Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
To help with basic Timeonice functions.
If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on Jun 12, 2011 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Canes worst D?
My wife would certainly concur!
by hockeythoughts on Jun 12, 2011 6:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Bob, you are dead right that the Canes will not be able to afford an established top-line defenseman and that if they want one, they have to draft him. I think the unknown is whether they can succeed in drafting one in the 2nd round. Odds seem against, but Dumoulin, Faulk and McBain offer hope.
I don’t know how to counter JR’s belief that by the time a young defenseman is ready, is EL contract is up. The implication is that you train the D-man, get him ready and then can’t afford him yourself. If that’s the case, the Canes need to draft a top-pairing D-man who can play no later than his second year. Finding D-men like that is truly rare.
Is Cam Fowler a top-line defenseman, or a situational scoring defenseman who might replace Pitkanen without improving the Canes’ defense?
by curiouscanesfan on Jun 13, 2011 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions
You can argue that Tim Gleason is the answer to your question since he’s a 1st round pick who came in the Jack Johnson trade.
by curiouscanesfan on Jun 13, 2011 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Gleason via Trade
The Jack Johnson fiasco makes the point. Why draft #3 to get Gleason? He’s great at what he does. He’s a key part of the Hurricanes core team; but is he a player who is a #3 pick? Dumoulin seems to be a very talented, stay at home defenseman. Faulk seems to be a puck-moving defenseman who plays with an edge. I prefer both to Babchuk despite the fact Babchuk was a first round pick.
Here’s an interesting article on the Blackhawks and their approach toward drafting defensemen. http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2011/06/12/draft-strategies-ii-the-chicago-model-of-drafting-defencemen/
BPA makes sense..
As has already been said by JR, they will, and should take the best player available!!
If you go to the trouble and expense to pay scouts, why not listen to them?
If i was GM for a day i’d take a D-man (Klefbom), but as i’m just a fan…WTF do i know?
Hey there Randycane
the hey i’m a fan line…is mine…but I’ll be nice and share !!! and you’re right. Why pay scouts if you won’t listen to them…
What did you do during the summer when the playoffs are over ?
Go Canes & Checkers !!
It just seems to me that we sometimes overlook our pipeline. We are currently grooming some very solid defensemen (okay in the case of Dumoulin we’re letting BC do it for us) in our system. We have Biega, Levi, and the aforementioned Dumoulin all of which are projecting very well at the moment, with Biega and Levi both very physical guys w/shutdown potential. We have the very physical Mark Alt, rough, yes, but with very real potential. Rissanen and Kivisto both projected as solid, stay at home guys. Add Jordan and Sanguinetti from a puck moving perspective and I’m not sure we need to agonize over that 1 big defenseman pick.
As AD has said, this draft is proving deeper than originally thought, and there are plenty of outstanding defenseman to be had later in the draft, just not quite as polished as a Larsson, Hamilton or a Siemens. There are guys like Connor Murphy, Joseph Morrow, and Ryan Sproul who would be excellent additions to our back end. Quite frankly I think this is how I would hope we would use our 2nd pick this year. Then back to forwards, with another back end project in the late rounds.
For us to be a consistent playoff contender we need homegrown talent, no matter what round. Build around a team concept and move forward from there. We won the cup playing team defense with a group of 2nd and 3rd liners on the blue line, but we played responsible team defense. That’s what I’d like to see us return to. Exciting, up tempo, “put the puck in the net” mentality. I’d rather see us win 5-3 games than lose 2-1.
We need a 1 year band aid on D. Really on semi-shut down guy. Corvo is Corvo and he’s working for us right now. McBain will continue to improve. Joslin showed signs. Allen is a physical presence who will be a couple of years removed from his surgery. Gleason is the wild card. He has to find his game of a couple of years ago.
So let’s take the big, speedy, skilled forward in the first round and let time, free-agency, and/or trade mend the back end.
Great post but take issue with the headline
Bob, your post and analysis of 12th overall picks dating back to 2001 are excellent. After scanning some draft history, though, I have to disagree that history dictates taking a defenseman at 12. History shows you can get a good defenseman at 12 and teams drafting there often do.
The question is which forwards were there at 12 in those years that might have been as valuable and in which cases were defensemen who were just about as good as the player taken at 12 available later. If we wanted to be strictly parallel to the Canes’ draft position this year, we could look at players taken at 12 and after and at 42 and after to see what the teams drafting at 12 could have gotten if they had gone in a different direction. I haven’t been that precise, but have eyeballed picks taken after 12th overall to see what the alternatives were to defensemen. We can all form our own conclusions from the list below. My conclusions are that you can usually get a good forward, often one with size, instead of a defenseman, and you can fairly often get a comparable defenseman later.
12th pick Later Altenatives
2001 (Hamhuis) Hemsky, Umberger, Patrick Sharp
2002 (Eminger) Semin, Duncan Keith, Johnny Boychuk
2003 (Jessiman) Dustin Brown, Zach Parise, Ryan Kesler, Mike Richards, Brian Boyle, Corey Perry
2004 (Thelan) Travis Zajak, Mike Green
2005 (M Staal) James Neal, M Vlasic, Stastny, Mason Raymond, Cody Franson
2006 (B Little) M Grabner, C Stewart, P Berglan, J McGinn, M Lucic
2007 (R McDonagh) K Shattenkirk, Eric Tangradi, PK Subban, W Simmonds
2008 (T Myers) E Karlsson, J Colborne, L Sbisa, J Eberle, J Carlson, D Stepan, Hamonic, J Hayes
2009 (C DeHaan) Kulikov, Leddy, Rundblad, Kreider, Erixon, M Johannson
2010 (C Fowler) Gormley, Forbort, Tarasenko, Hison, Watson, Bjugstad
It’s too soon to say about the ultimate outcome of the last three or four drafts, but I only see two years where it seems highly likely that the best picks at 12 were the defensemen taken: 2005 and 2008. And I think NotOpie makes an excellent point: this year, a defenseman taken 12th overall would have to be substantially better than Dumoulin, Faulk, Alt, Levi, Biega, Sanguinetti, etc. I would add that a defenseman taken 12th would have to be substantially better than one available with the 42nd pick. I don’t know if defensemen available at 12 will be that good or not. Oleksiak and Murphy would provide qualities that the Canes don’t have on the NHL roster or in the pipeline. But there are forwards who would do the same.
Looking over the list of players taken later than 12th, there are quite a few forwards who could have helped the Canes a lot through the years, including Parise, Hemsky, Umberger, Sharp, Semin (probably), Dustin Brown, Ryan Kesler, Mike Richards, Corey Perry, Travis Zajak, James Neal, Chris Stewart, etc. There are also quite a few defensemen taken later than 12th who worked out extremely well, including Duncan Keith, Brian Boyle, Mike Green, PK Subban, Erik Karlsson and John Carlson.
For the future, my conclusion is that the Canes should take the player that they think is best. If it’s close, they should go for a player who adds something that the team lacks, such as size at forward or size and toughness on D. There will almost certainly be an excellent player available at 12th and very good players available at 42nd. But there’s also a fair chance that the player taken 42nd will turn out to be better than the player taken at 12th. All you can do is grab the player that you think is best with perceived team needs figuring in if there’s a tie.
History doesn’t seem to me to dictate anything. It shows there’s always a good player at 12th, but people miss that player something like one fourth of the time. And as often as not, even if you take a good player at 12th, there’s a better than 50% chance that a player taken later will be better. The draft is anything but an exact science and history is mostly a reminder both that teams drafting higher can blow it and teams drafting lower can hit the jackpot.
by curiouscanesfan on Jun 13, 2011 9:13 AM EDT reply actions
Seems that Keith Ballard is on his way out of Vancouver. Personally I always admired his style of play and contributions to his previous teams, a la Phoenix and Florida. Especially with his poor play in the playoffs and his less than exceptional regular season, I would think he may be on the trade market and available for less than he would have been previously.
If he can turn it around, he would be a great addition to the Canes. THOUGHTS?
The only way I would think it were feasible is if the Canucks were willing to unload him for a significantly reduced price and we do not resign Pitkanen. I know that is a lofty price, but considering the price it would take to acquire another comparable defenseman, he may come cheaper than others.
Obviously this is only assuming he would be return to his play in the past. If he continues to play like he did in the playoffs it would not be worth it at all even if he was being given away.
A few players I would hope we get a chance to draft in the 2nd round: Connor Murphy and Brett Ritchie. Murphy may slip because of his back injury which is concerning, however, when he has played he has been lights out. Ritchie is going to be a beast of a power forward, obviously they take longer to develop, but the kid seems to have the drive and work ethic to truly succeed.
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