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High Stakes Poker Between Canes and Free Agents

Professional poker player Phil Hellmuth should take note of what's going on in Carolina this week.

It's just two days before free agent signing day and the Carolina Hurricanes find themselves in a bit of a pickle.   The team still has several openings to fill on their roster and most importantly, the club has yet to re-sign two of their top five scorers from last season. 

Erik Cole and Jussi Jokinen accounted for 104 points between the two of them last year but they reportedly both want to test the free agency market on Friday.  That's bad news for Carolina because there is not exactly a robust market of forwards out there and those two free agents are considered by many to be among the best available. 

Postulating, posturing, and out-right bluffing is in full effect. 

Jim Rutherford says he is ready to move on, but who will he replace Cole and Jokinen with?  Alexei Ponikarovsky?  Radim Vrbata?  There are not a ton of viable choices out there.  After the jump, we'll take a look at the some of the available free agents the Canes, as well as other teams, have to choose from.

Star-divide

(sorted by previous salary cap number)


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2010 - Brad Richards   $7.8M 72 28 49 77 1 24 7 0 3 272


If the Hurricanes truly wanted to turn themselves into annual contenders, they would bank the money they were offering to Cole, Jokinen, and LaRose and make a strong play for this superstar center who has previously mentioned Carolina as a preferred destination.   But, this is a small market with small market thinking and Richards will probably draw close to his $7.8 million again. 

(Just a crazy thought, Staal was moved to wing in the Olympics and was one of Team Canada's leading scorers.)

 


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2010 - Simon Gagne  $5.2M 63 17 23 40 -12 20 7 0 3 154


Gagne has been injured off and on the past couple of years, but when he's healthy he's still dangerous on the powerplay, which the Canes found out first hand this past season.  Is he worth $5.2 million per year?  No, but that won't stop someone from overpaying him an amount somewhere between three and four million.  It should not be Carolina.

 


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2010 - Alex Kovalev   $5.0M 74 16 18 34 -6 44 6 0 3 151


At age 38, this player is getting a bit long of tooth, but he might get one more NHL contract before retirement.  Doubtful he would fit in here or even want to come here.

 


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2010 - Teemu Selanne   $4.5M 73 31 49 80 6 49 16 0 5 213


Selanne is age 40 but proved last season that he still has some game.  But it's probably Anaheim or else back to Finland for this scoring machine, although it might be nice to see him in Carolina for a year. 

 


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2010 - Tim Connolly  $4.5M 68 13 29 42 -10 20 6 0 3 151


He's worn out his welcome in Buffalo.  If the Canes can't find anyone else, here is the type of player you are looking at coming in, although it won't be for $4.5 million. 

 


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2010 - Jason Arnott  $4.5M 73 17 14 31 -6 40 4 0 1 169


The 36-year-old still has game, but his better days are behind him.  Not a valid substitute for either Cole or Jokinen.

 


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2010 - Michal Handzus  $4.0M
82 12 18 30 -5 20 4 0 3 94


After a couple of disappointing seasons in Los Angeles, another player who will be taking a pay cut in order to stay in the league. 

 


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2010 - Michael Ryder  $4.0M 79 18 23 41 -1 26 8 0 6 165


Ryder has had an up and down career while in Boston.  Again, if given the choice, I would choose Cole or Jokinen.

 


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2010 - Steve Sullivan   $3.75M 44 10 12 22 4 28 3 0 1 79


Another older player, (36) on the downward slope, but might be a decent pickup at a cheap price. 

 


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2010 - Cory Stillman  $3.533M 65 12 27 39 5 24 3 0 2 116


Stillman, (37) has managed to stay out of the drama so far as he is (reportedly) deciding whether or not to retire.  Would be a decent last minute option, but again he won't be able to replace production of Cole or Jokinen.

 


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2010 - Marco Sturm  $3.5M 35 5 11 16 6 23 1 0 1 57


Sturm was picked up off of waivers last year by the Caps and contributed a bit.  The oft injured forward should not be on Carolina's list.

 


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2010 - Alexei Ponikarovsky  $3.2M 61 5 10 15 1 36 1 0 1 94


 A couple of good years while with the Leafs but a major disappointment in "La La Land".  He would be a major reclamation project at a cheaper price if the Canes got him, not a player to count on. 

 


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2010 - Radim Vrbata  $3.0M 79 19 29 48 5 20 10 0 2 240


Vrbata has had a couple of up and down seasons since leaving the Canes a few years ago.  He might bring some of what Jokinen does. 

 


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2010 - Erik Cole  $2.9M 82 26 26 52 -1 49 3 1 9 201


How much could Cole get on the open market?  It sounds like he wants to find out. 

 


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2010 - Jamie Langenbrunner  $2.8M 70 9 23 32 -18 45 1 0 3 153


Again, this player has seen better days.  Former Devils captain was moved out of town for some reason and ended up in Dallas.

 


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2010 - Chris Clark  $2.6M 53 5 10 15 -3 38 2 0 0 83


Good team guy but not in Jokinen or Cole's league.

 


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2010 - Tomas Fleischmann  $2.6M 45 12 19 31 2 18 3 0 2 98


If Cole and Jokinen both fall through, maybe this player is on the phone list?

 


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2010 - Sergei Samsonov  $2.533M 78 13 27 40 -2 14 4 0 1 123


Yes, he is available.  No, he won't be coming back. 

 


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2010 - Vinny Prospal  $2.48M 29 9 14 23 4 8 2 0 0 61


The "Other Vinny" has had injury problems. 

 


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2010 - Todd White  $2.375M 18 1 1 2 -2 2 0 0 0 11


Speaking of injury problems, another player to stay clear of.

 


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2010 - Antti Miettinen  $2.333M 73 16 19 35 -3 38 8 0 4 168


A possibility at the right price. 

 


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2010 - Chuck Kobasew  $2.333M 63 9 7 16 -6 19 0 0 1 74


The Canes have reportedly always liked this player, but he won't replace Cole and Jokinen's scoring. 

 


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2010 - Andrew Brunette  $2.333M 82 18 28 46 -7 16 8 0 3 117


This player would be a decent pickup at the right price. 

 


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2010 - Scottie Upshall  $2.250M 82 22 12 34 -7 52 2 0 2 191


Another player who could come close to filling the gap. Would be on my list if Cole and/or Jokinen are gone. 

 


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2010 - Nikolay Zherdev  $2.0M 56 16 6 22 5 22 1 0 1 135


Once highly regarded top 10 draft pick is now an enigma.  Too risky for Carolina. 

 


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2010 - Ethan Moreau 37 1 5 6 -9 24 0 0 1 56


Probably will retire this year.

 


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2010 - Mike Modano  $1.75M 40 4 11 15 -4 8 1 0 0 79


Stayed a year too long.

 


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2010 - Radek Dvorak  $1.7M 66 7 15 22 2 24 0 1 3 109


A slim possibility if all other options fail.

 


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2010 - Chad LaRose  $1.7M 82 16 15 31 -21 59 2 1 0 176


Will be hard-pressed to match that contract. 

 


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2010 - Jussi Jokinen  $1.7M 70 19 33 52 3 24 8 0 1 136


Previous 30 goal scorer made the same money as LaRose the past two years and deserves much more now.   Could get a huge payday.

 

In review

There are not very many players listed above who make you want to jump and shout.  Scottie Upshall would be on my short list of forwards to contact, but there are more players closer to retirement in that group than not. 

There are also a few interesting RFA's who were not qualified, but none are experienced enough to be counted on to consistently replace Jokinen and Cole's scoring.

Remember my article from a couple of weeks ago asking readers to make a choice between Cole and Jokinen?  It might just come down to that for Rutherford.  If neither of these players are re-signed by Friday morning, look for the Canes to step up and make a major play to keep at least one of them.  They simply can not afford to let both players go, for a number of reasons. 

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LaRose resigned

via Twitter and retweeted by Paul Branecky: @TSNBobMcKenzie Bob McKenzie
Hearing Carolina has agreed to terms with Chad Larose on a two-year deal.

And that's another Hurricane's goal! WOOOOOOOO!

by jskinner23 on Jun 29, 2011 10:31 AM EDT reply actions  

@PaulBranecky Paul Branecky
Exact same as last contract RT @TSNBobMcKenzie: Larose will earn $1.5M next season and $1.9M the season after that for an AAV of $1.7M.

And that's another Hurricane's goal! WOOOOOOOO!

by jskinner23 on Jun 29, 2011 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

Like him a lot but that’s way too much.

Worse yet, if Cole and Jokinen are gone and PM stays, LaRose will probably have a great shot at being overslotted for 60 games. I hope PM noticed how LaRose’s presence on the 2nd line coincided with Skinner’s “hitting the wall.” The wall went away when LaRose moved out and Jokinen played with Skinner.

by curiouscanesfan on Jun 29, 2011 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly what I am thinking

by hurricane9 on Jun 29, 2011 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

I’m fine with this and trust they realize he belongs in the bottom 6. He probably be close to $1.2mil but don’t think avg. $1.7 prevents them from re-signing Cole or Jussi.

by Go_Shelf on Jun 29, 2011 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

I’ve been trolling on this site for a long time but never really felt compelled to respond to anything. However, the resigning of LaRose in and of itself, much less the money he’s being given, makes no sense to me.

I like Chad as a person. He’s funny and seems to be a good locker room guy. However, he’s never scored 20 goals, never scored more than 31 points, and finished a -21 this year. He’s a 3rd line player at his peak but only on a less than average team. On a team that makes even a bit of noise in the playoffs, he would be a 4th line player. We don’t need to be investing $3.4 million over the next two years on a player like that.

The most disappointing aspect to me is this takes away a roster spot for one of our younger players (unless we sign a one big name free agent who takes up a significant portion of our payroll). I was pretty convinced once we re-signed Dwyer that we had filled out our necessary short, gritty, offensively-challenged roster spots. I guess I was wrong…

by CanesFanInGA on Jun 29, 2011 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

Poker

I like Cole and Jussi ; most other fans do too. I would go 3.5 for Cole and 3.0 Jussi … but not more. Both players have had one good year out of the last two seasons. Both players have a high “compete” level and bring leadership to the team.

But, this team missed the playoffs the last two seasons. If the definition of a successful season is to make the post season, then we have not succeeded. If some other team wants to overpay, so be it.

by JohnSS on Jun 29, 2011 10:53 AM EDT reply actions  

Salary Floor

Any cap experts know how much more we need to spend to hit the floor?

by tigerblood on Jun 29, 2011 10:58 AM EDT reply actions  

Here’s the link to the Canes page at Cap Geek. Already updated with these last 3 contracts.

Still have a lot of money to spend w/Sutter, Joslin, Tlusty as RFA’s. A backup goalie and 4th line Ctr at $1mil each?.

Not sure if Cole and Jokinen are looking for $4mil or more maybe?

Twitter @HMof2

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 29, 2011 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

Tlusty (and Bodie) are actually both UFAs b/c they were not tendered.

by Cory Lavalette on Jun 29, 2011 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Very true.

Twitter @HMof2

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 29, 2011 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks for the link. Am I correct in believing that the cap floor is $16 M less than the cap and thus is $48.3 million? And based on that, the Canes still need to spend about $10 million more this season?

by tigerblood on Jun 29, 2011 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes – the Cap floor is fixed at $16million below the Ceiling under the current CBA.

Twitter @HMof2

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 29, 2011 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

But I should add that Rutherford has said lately that he anticipates a budget of $50mil or so. Which usually means $51-53mil.

Twitter @HMof2

by Carolyn Christians on Jun 29, 2011 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’d really like to know what JR thinks they are worth. If they both end up not coming back JR should have at least 5 mil to get a replacement. Based on how JR operates I am sure 3 mi of that will go to Cory Stillman !

by Hockeydog on Jun 29, 2011 1:13 PM EDT reply actions  

1) Amazing that the salary cap “floor” is now several million above what the ceiling was before the lockout!
2) If the Canes want to retain Jokinen they better offer a tad more than 3 mil OR a nice 5+ year length. With the weak UFA class and other teams looking to make ‘the floor’ (Islanders/avalanche) there will be tons of interested parties looking at him and willing to give the Finn 4+ mil

I find sometimes it's easy to be myself
sometimes I find it's better to be somebody else

by Fauxrumors on Jun 29, 2011 1:41 PM EDT reply actions  

To be honest, I’d love to see us keep both, I’d prefer Cole (no offense to Jokinen, like him too), but I can see us signing Jokinen over Cole if we needed to keep 1.

Ready for the Canes to win the Cup again! :)

by thebl4ckd0g on Jun 29, 2011 1:54 PM EDT reply actions  

FWIW...

via Twitter:
@ice_chip Chip Alexander
Jussi Jokinen’s agent says he hopes to have deal done with Canes before Friday. We’ll see.

And that's another Hurricane's goal! WOOOOOOOO!

by jskinner23 on Jun 29, 2011 2:50 PM EDT reply actions  

well this fan

hopes that out of the 2 we keep the Juice…but hey..if it doesn’t play out…then so be it…as I too as a fan want to see the canes not only make the playoff but would love to see a deeper run..and not get swept in the opening round…gee I don’t too much do i ?? as another cup would be nice to have too…no ?

What did you do during the summer when the playoffs are over ?
Go Canes & Checkers !!

by CaniacSteve on Jun 29, 2011 3:39 PM EDT reply actions  

Well I hope we keep both but I’d have to say with a heavy heart if JR can only get one back I too would have to pick Jussi. Cole had a wonderful season last year because he stayed healthy,and will be just as good this year as well…. if he stays healthy. He’s not put together back-to-back healthy years in his NHL career to the best of my knowledge. To me Cole is as much a part of this organization as any player past or present but there is always a risk signing him because of his history of being injured. He may well have that all behind him but only time will tell. I am a huge fan of his, but if it came down to choosing between him and Jussi I’d have to look at the safety of my investment.

by Hockeydog on Jun 29, 2011 5:03 PM EDT reply actions  

Jokinen vs Cole

I am also a huge believer in what Cole brings to the team; but I agree that if I were a GM and had to choose between Cole and Jokinen, I’d sign Jokinen. Cole was superb this past season; but statistically, there is a real risk he could face more injury issues. I am turned off by his desire to “test the market.” It isn’t immoral or illegal to do so; but it does say something significant about his perspective. In the end, the Hurricanes will need to replace Cole whether it is two years or four years or even sooner. If I were GM, I’d turn the page and look for a younger, healthier version of Cole. If indeed Cole’s approach is that hockey is a business, then I’d take the same approach to him. Loyalty is a two way street.

by abramsdoug on Jun 29, 2011 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

If we lose Cole we only lose him for two or three years and then he signs his final NHL contract with Carolina and finishes his final two or three years here, the last year of which will probably leave fans wondering why.

I hope we get both Jussi and Cole this time around.

Let's go Hartolina WhalerCanes!!!! I am a big fan of the Canes, but I still have some residual Brass Bonanza Blue and Green in me.

by Ned Butler on Jun 29, 2011 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

I like Cole and he had a great season last year. But if given a choice I would pick the Juice also. (of course I’d take both of them back—but that is if I had to pick one,)

 Cole came off a great season—————-the first since 05-06. (I know he took an injury for the team, so to speak.) But he has also had good support here. And I truly get turned off every time his contract negotiations come up. It is the same BS every time. He is a big hitter with a lot of speed——————but he is physically fragile in many ways. I think he is risky for a high dollar long term contract !! Just my $.02

GO CANES! Go Heels!

by UNCCaniac8 on Jun 29, 2011 8:40 PM EDT reply actions  

Are the neck injury and broken leg really due to being physically fragile?

Quantum Woodworking: Hand crafted pens, bottle stoppers, bowls and more.
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by brogshan on Jun 30, 2011 8:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

Based on age....

I’d keep Jussi, but if they were the same age+/- i’d go w/Cole!! of course it appears we may get no say or we may still get both… i still think JR is posturing and is unlikely to instantly go to option B!!!

by randycane on Jun 29, 2011 9:33 PM EDT reply actions  

I would like to see Vrbata back in Carolina. Not only would he be a former Cane coming back, but he has played solid the last two years in Phoenix. ESPN has a good write-up on him being a breakout free agent candidate because of the offensive numbers he has produced, but also his sound defensive play (for every 60 minutes of ice time he receives the other team scores only 2 goals; very interesting stat).

by Caniac Kid on Jun 29, 2011 10:08 PM EDT reply actions  

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