FanPost

Canes' Big Forwards

We often complain about the Canes' lack of big forwards but recent developments may be changing the picture. Mattias Lindstrom, Victor Rask and Brody Sutter are on the roster for conditioning camp. HMo2 reminded us that  Jared Staal is training under Gary Roberts. Lots of people have been speculating about possible 4th liners this coming season and a couple of pretty big forwards from the Canes' system have been mentioned as possibilities. There's also been talk of signing an untendered free agent from another team, like Stewart from Winnipeg. Finally, there are a few relatively big forwards on the NHL roster. Regardless of the size of these players, in many cases it isn't yet clear if they'll play big. That's probably the most interesting area for speculation. I haven't tried to answer that question and am hoping more knowledgeable people will.

I thought it might be interesting to take a guess at the probability of each of the big forwards whose rights the Canes' already own making the NHL roster at some point (not necessarily this season). I've included odds on sure things to make the table look decent. I considered computing a sort of future roster mass index by multiplying weight times probability of making it in the NHL but thought better of it.

Below are three views of the Canes' big forwards and forward prospects: by weight, height and probability of making it in the NHL (except for current roster players, my guess). I hope some of you will take more informed guesses about the chances of these players making it in the NHL. FYI, I give Osala such a low percentage because he may not come back to North America.

Everybody here already knows all this information. The value in this post, if any, is providing a quick summary view that may add perspective on whether the Canes have and will continue to have a problem with size on the forward lines.

 

Canes' Big Forwards by Weight
Name  Height  Weight  Age  NHL%
Oskar Osala    6' 4"  219 23 10%
Matthew Pistilli    6' 2"  219 22 10%
Jared Staal    6' 4"  210 20 20%
Mattias Lindstrom    6' 4"  205 20 50%
Eric Staal "C"   6' 4"  205 26 100%
Tuomo Ruutu    6' 0"  205 28 100%
Nicolas Blanchard    6' 3"  200 24 10%
Brett Sutter    6' 0"  200 24 50%
Zac Dalpe    6' 1"  195 21 100%
Jerome Samson    6' 0"  195 23 80%
Victor Rask  6' 2" 194 18 80%
Riley Nash    6' 1"  191 22 90%
Brody Sutter  6' 4"  190 19 20%
Drayson Bowman    6' 1"  190 22 80%
Brandon Sutter "A"   6' 3"  183 22 100%

We can always hope that some of the tall players will put on weight.

Canes' Big Forwards by Height
Name  Height  Weight  Age  NHL %
Oskar Osala    6' 4"  219 23 10%
Jared Staal    6' 4"  210 20 20%
Mattias Lindstrom    6' 4"  205 20 50%
Eric Staal "C"   6' 4"  205 26 100%
Brody Sutter  6' 4"  190 19 20%
Nicolas Blanchard    6' 3"  200 24 10%
Brandon Sutter "A"   6' 3"  183 22 100%
Matthew Pistilli    6' 2"  219 22 10%
Victor Rask  6' 2" 194 18 80%
Zac Dalpe    6' 1"  195 21 100%
Riley Nash    6' 1"  191 22 90%
Drayson Bowman    6' 1"  190 22 80%
Tuomo Ruutu    6' 0"  205 28 100%
Brett Sutter    6' 0"  200 24 50%
Jerome Samson    6' 0"  195 23 80%

 

Finally, my guesses about likelihood of making it in the NHL.

Canes' Big Forwards by Likelihood of Making NHL
Name  Height  Weight  Age  NHL %
Eric Staal "C"   6' 4"  205 26 100%
Tuomo Ruutu    6' 0"  205 28 100%
Zac Dalpe    6' 1"  195 21 100%
Brandon Sutter "A"   6' 3"  183 22 100%
Riley Nash    6' 1"  191 22 90%
Jerome Samson    6' 0"  195 23 80%
Victor Rask  6' 2" 194 18 80%
Drayson Bowman    6' 1"  190 22 80%
Mattias Lindstrom    6' 4"  205 20 50%
Brett Sutter    6' 0"  200 24 50%
Jared Staal    6' 4"  210 20 20%
Brody Sutter  6' 4"  190 19 20%
Oskar Osala    6' 4"  219 23 10%
Matthew Pistilli    6' 2"  219 22 10%
Nicolas Blanchard    6' 3"  200 24 10%

 

Realistically, how many of the bigger forwards will actually play in the NHL and play big?

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