Why this year's draft will be a good one for the Canes

by curiouscanesfan on Jun 9, 2011 12:11 PM EDT

It's easy to read about this year's draft and feel disappointed that the Canes' draft position seems to fall a few picks below the prospects that most experts consider elite or near-elite. Barring a trade, the Canes have no shot at Nugent-Hopkins, Landeskog, Larsson or Huberdeau or the apparent next tier of Couturier, Murphy, Hamilton and Strome or some similar grouping.

But what looks great about this draft to me is the availability of players that match the Canes' needs. I think there's a consensus on this site that the Canes need size at forward, a second-line center, and good shutdown defensemen with size. Comments below are based on looking at ratings and mock drafts in Red Line Report, Puck Prospectus, NHL.com and other places. They represent possibilities for which players might be available. I can't judge which player the Canes should take - just don't have enough knowledge - so please speak up if you have opinions.

Big Forwards

The Canes will probably have their pick at 12th overall of Marc McNeil, Mark Scheifele, JT Miller, Joel Armia, Brandon Saad, Nicklas Jensen and Tyler Biggs. It's possible that Zibanejad will be there. There seems to be no doubt that the Canes will be able to get a pretty talented forward with size if that's their preference, and the freedom to go for a more skilled scoring type, an accomplished two-way forward, or a big bruiser to win puck battles and protect guys like Skinner and Boychuk. It's intriguing that Red Line Report (draft guide is well worth the money) compared JT Miller's style to Erik Cole and ranked him in the top 10. They don't say one word against him and he sounds like exactly what the Canes are missing up front. On the other hand, they don't call him a top-line forward and he's not in the top 30 at Puck Prospectus.

Second Line Center

The Canes will probably get to choose from two of the following three centers: McNeil, Scheifele and Zibanejad (not counting the two highly rated Russians that I doubt they'll consider). There is a remote chance that Couturier could fall if, say, there's a run on defensemen, with Larsson, Murphy, Hamilton, Klefbom, Oleksiak, Beaulieu, Jonas Brodin, Siemens, Morrow and Musil representing 10 at least plausible picks ahead of the Canes at 12th. There's also the possibility of other developments that push one of the better centers down, such as all the write-ups of Grimaldi as the second coming of Martin St. Louis or Matt Puempel as this year's Jeff Skinner, or if some team has a very high opinion of Joel Armia or JT Miller or Alexander Khokhlachev. McNeil, Zibanejad and Miller have all been showing up in mock drafts in the top 10 in various places. So have Oleksiak and Sven Bartschi. Hence a remote chance that Couturier could fall.

Shutdown Defensemen

Assuming Larsson and Hamilton are gone, the Canes will still have a shot at a couple of the shutdown defensemen among the defensemen just listed: Klefbom, Oleksiak, Siemens, Musil.

Surprise Scenarios

There are at least three players that various experts consider very talented who could drop and, if the Canes are among those who rate them very highly, could end up in Carolina. This is where the Canes decide sheer talent outweighs apparent team needs, a Jeff-Skinner-style pick. The three: Murphy, Bartschi, Grimaldi. Smaller players seem to drop on draft day. Writeups of Grimaldi as a 1st-line scoring forward (Red Line Report) and a top-ten talent and other comments that he would be the best player in this draft if he stood two inches taller indicate there's a possibility that Grimaldi isn't just an extra little guy that the Canes shouldn't even consider. Grimaldi is a center to this point in his career so perhaps he could even help there, unlikely as it seems. Every team has to think twice about a defenseman as small as Murphy, but there are people who think Murphy is the best player in this draft. If that's what the Canes think, they won't pass him up. They'll meet other needs with something other than their 12th overall pick. The same applies if the Canes think a puck-moving defenseman like Brodin or Beaulieu is too good to pass up. If the Canes go for one of these guys who doesn't seem to match a pressing need, it may mean they think they're getting an extraordinary talent so we should probably hold our criticism and hope they're right.

The Second Round

It looks as though there will be big forwards of interest in the second round when the Canes pick, such as perhaps Kale Kessy, Mario Lucia or Adam Lowry. There will also be some intriguing defensemen, perhaps including 6'5" 230 lb Mike McKee, a recent convert from forward, or Scott Mayfield or Connor Murphy.

Six Scenarios Representative of the Canes' Choices in the 2011-12 Draft

Size and toughness at center and a future shutdown defenseman

Round 1: Mark McNeil; Round 2: Connor Murphy

Size, skill and scoring at forward and a chance on big raw talent on D

Round 1: Joel Armia; Round 2: Mike McKee

Great size and emerging talent on D and size and scoring at forward

Round 1: Jamieson Oleksiak; Round 2: Mario Lucia

Size and skill on D and size and toughness at forward

Round 1: Oskar Klefbom; Round 2: Kale Kessy

Bigger and tougher at forward

Round 1: Mark McNeil; Round 2: Kale Kessy

Bigger at forward with an infusion of scoring talent

Round 1: Joel Armia; Round 2: Mario Lucia

Conclusion FWIW

There are multiple scenarios on which the Canes could come away from this draft with players that seem to address long-standing team needs. It seems unlikely they'll get a player who will help next year. McNeil might be the best hope along those lines to step in at 2nd-line center if everything breaks perfectly. Klefbom might be the second best choice to help next year. Some attractive choices appear to need years to refine skills or put on weight and muscle. Grimaldi, Murphy, Bartschi and Brodin may be wild cards whose talent blows all scenarios away.

This post shares information but my main purpose is to get a better sense of this draft from comments of the many people on this site who know a lot more than I do. I'd be grateful for opinions on how the Canes will likely fare in this draft, what you think they should do, etc. There's already been informed discussion in previous threads, but new information seems to emerge every day as the draft approaches.

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Comments

I player moving up the rankings who some think could make the move right into the NHL is Mika Zibanejad. Unfortunately he may not be there at 12th since it seems there is a growing buzz about him. He’s listed as a center but can play wing and many are suggesting he can be an effective power forward. Has a nasty streak to go with size and skill.

by sittler27 on Jun 9, 2011 1:11 PM EDT reply actions

It does sound as though Zibanejad is rising, not falling toward 12th. Odds look better on McNeil’s being there, but I’ve seen him showing up in top 10s too.

Will six centers go before the Canes’ pick, or seven if you count Grimaldi? Nugent-Hopkins, Huberdeau, Strome, Couturier, Zibanejad, McNeil, Grimaldi. If lots of centers and Landeskog, Hamilton and Larsson go high, more D fall to the Canes, maybe Klefbom. I’ve seen one mock that has Hamilton going after the Canes’ pick (I think with Oleksiak and Klefbom going top 10). If lots of D go high, the Canes get their second line center or a big forward.

To me, worst case is likely Armia or Schiefele or Miller or Jensen and you can find very positive things written about all four. Best case based on most rankings is Zibanejad, McNeil or Klefbom.

Miller seems to have soared from the 20s to top 10 or close to it. What do you think of him?

by curiouscanesfan on Jun 9, 2011 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Z-Bad would be a solid choice. Rankings are all over the map and ever changing for this Draft. I could see Ryan Murphy, Mika Zibanejad, or Ryan Strome falling to us. I would have never guessed Cam Fowler would drop as low as he did last year, anything can happen.

by JussiJuice on Jun 9, 2011 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions

This seems to be a deep draft with a lot of talent all the way through the top 20. Probably why the various mock drafts are changing as players work out or more information becomes available. This is where you need a top shelf scouting team that can find those qualities that see the intangibles and assess the upside, giving you that guy who will be a star rather than just a every day player at the NHL level. Canes did an exceptional job picking Skinner last year….. hopefully Sheldon Ferguson and crew pick another winner this year.

by sittler27 on Jun 9, 2011 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Analysis

I appreciate all of your work on this post. You have laid out many possible scenarios with multiple prospects to match each scenario. At the end you get more specific. I, like you don’t know enough to advise on who the best picks would be, but I like you like to look at various possibilities. I’m going to keep your post and compare it to what happens on draft day.

Excellent pre-draft post.

by FoxtrotSierra on Jun 9, 2011 1:13 PM EDT reply actions

Yes, excellent post.

by hockeythoughts on Jun 9, 2011 3:47 PM EDT reply actions

Good research...

Agree with all your suggestions!! If this is the year that JR actually picks a D-man in the 1st rd (i know, UNHEARD OF…) there will be a few likely available -Klefbom is very intriguing!!
your forward selection seems to be spot on!! (at least to me, based on more reading, and research, than direct knowledge…??)

by randycane on Jun 9, 2011 4:11 PM EDT reply actions

Thanks. I’m really weak on the specific players. What makes me feel good about the draft is the availability of multiple players who seem to fit the Canes’ general needs in terms of size and type. Because there are multiple players, the odds are greater that the Canes will find one player that they think can do the job. I don’t know which one – I’m just encouraged that there’s a good chance we’ll get a big forward and a shutdown D who will help down the road.

After this draft, we may not have to grind our teeth about having too many 185-lb forwards and puck-moving defensemen and too few big forwards and shutdown D to play beside them. We can just worry about when different players will be ready, not whether the Canes have a prospect to fit the bill.

by curiouscanesfan on Jun 9, 2011 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Great post

I’d go:

Murphy/Beaulieu/Klefbom in the 1st
Stefan Noesen / Connor Murphy / Ryan Sproul in the 2nd

In the preferred order. Add a dynamic future top-pairing D and either a solid Center from Plymouth or another promising D.

by JussiJuice on Jun 9, 2011 6:29 PM EDT reply actions

Still more appealing combinations. I could go for those too.

However, I’m still hoping for more size on D unless Murphy is an all-star despite his size. I’m not sure the Canes have anybody coming along to pair with Murphy or could sign anybody who would do the trick. Murphy sounds like a better skating, better shooting, vastly more irresponsible, pint-sized Pitkanen that anybody in the NHL can push around. He would be fun to watch, but how much would he help if the Canes can’t put Shea Weber next to him?

by curiouscanesfan on Jun 9, 2011 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions

I think Murphy has what it takes to be a Tobi Enstrom type D with an even higher offensive upside. He has the hockey smarts to develop the defensive acumen required for a small D in the NHL. I’d snap him up if he fell to 12, which is not likely but possible.

by JussiJuice on Jun 9, 2011 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Another way of looking at Canes' choice

I canvassed a bunch of rankings and mock drafts to see which player was either ranked 12th or projected to go to the Canes at 12th. The 15 sources included the NHL.com mocks, the ISS rankings, CSS North American Skater rankings, RLR Rankings and mock drafts, Craig Button rankings, Craig Button mock draft, Puck Prospectus rankings, Bleacher Report 6/9 mock draft, and Hockey Wilderness 6/7 draft. Without attribution to individual sources, the players taken or ranked 12th:

Schiefele
Grimaldi
Jensen
Siemens
Hamilton
Zibanejad
Armia
Bartschi
Olieksiak
Morrow
McNeill

Armia appeared twice and Siemens three times.

15 sources, 11 different players ranked or drafted 12th. The new article on the Canes’ site confirms that the Canes’ scouts see similar instability in player ratings from team to team as well as encouraging words about the overall quality of this year’s draft: perhaps not as strong at the very top as in previous years, but sustained quality well into the second round. That works out just about perfectly for the Canes since they pick 12th and 42nd.

by curiouscanesfan on Jun 10, 2011 7:58 AM EDT reply actions

A Deep Draft through First 120

Initially, some commentators were bemoaning the fact that this year’s draft crop was supposedly weaker than last season. I felt they were either creating smokescreens or were not digging deep enough into the players. As the scouting services have analyzed the players, the reports back are very positive. The difference from last season and this season is that there were perhaps 10 to 15 players who were clearly best in class. This draft crop has perhaps 1-5 as best in class, with 6-15 being slightly better than their peers and then the perhaps 16-35 or so as all being fine prospects with different skill sets to commend them. Through the next grouping there are quite a number of excellent choices.

I think the Hurricanes have some great choices available at #12. In my view players such as McNeill, Zibanejad, Armia, Schiefele, Miller, or Jensen would all be great choices. In fact, I’d be very tempted to do some trading of later draft choices to move up in the second round or even late into the first round to grab a player like Biggs (who seems to be dropping in some reports). Rask, Lowry, and Ambroz may also be available in the second round. I’d load of big forwards and solve that problem for the Hurricanes this draft once and for all.

by abramsdoug on Jun 10, 2011 10:01 AM EDT reply actions

I agree with loading up on big forwards unless the Canes think they can get a number 1 D or a top-line scoring wing who can play soon, which seems very unlikely.

by curiouscanesfan on Jun 10, 2011 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions

My take is that regardless, the Canes won’t come across an NHL ready “D” at #12 this year. We have Biega, Levi, and even Alt a couple of years away, but they all fit the role of “physical” and “shut down”. They may also have some offensive upside. So given that those guys are in the system, I’d go big, fast, skilled forward in the 1st, size on “D” in the second (unless there’s still a big, fast forward still available), and then BPA in the later rounds.

by NotOpie on Jun 10, 2011 11:57 AM EDT reply actions

Wilder wildcards in the draft

Could today’s stories about possible trades – Edmonton’s willingness to trade the top pick and Columbus looking to trade the 8th pick and Voracek for Jeff Carter – affect the Canes at 12th overall?

With this kind of talk well in advance of the draft, we know less about who will be drafting before the Canes, let alone who will be drafted.

I’d assume whoever wants the first pick is after Nugent-Hopkins. I’m not sure why anybody would trade for the 8th pick until they know which players are still going to be there after the first seven picks.

by curiouscanesfan on Jun 10, 2011 4:37 PM EDT reply actions

More and different playing rankings out

Today it’s Hockey Writer’s.

McNeil, Boone Jenner and Mika Zibanejad are ranked 9-11. Players 12-20: Beaulieu, Scheifele, Armia, Baertschi, Puempel, Grimaldli, Siemens, Brodin, Morrow.

I would be hoping that the Canes think Armia is the best of the lot and turn out to be right. Of the forwards in the Canes’ zone by these rankings, Baertschi and Grimaldi seem small, Puempel has an injury history and had to be set back by missing so much time. That leaves Schiefele and Armia. Armia sounds in most descriptions as though he might someday turn into a big-time scoring wing. I’m not sure any of those defensemen would help a lot or help soon.

by curiouscanesfan on Jun 15, 2011 7:02 PM EDT reply actions

I’ve read a few places that Beaulieu may be NHL ready as soon as next season. He already has the size to cut it and was impressive in his teams Memorial Cup winning run.

Oleksiak looks like a Tyler Myers clone (who went 12th Overall in 2008). Myers played one season after being drafted and went on to win the Rookie of the Year award. After an impressive combine I doubt Oleksiak makes it to 12 but it will push someone else good back.

by JussiJuice on Jun 15, 2011 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Oleksiak sounds good to me too. He happens to be well down the rankings at Hockey Writer’s so I didn’t bring him up in my post. Oleksiak is showing up everywhere from top 10 to bottom of 1st round. It will be interesting if he’s there when the Canes pick. Wonder if the Canes’ site is profiling him leading up to the draft?

by curiouscanesfan on Jun 16, 2011 7:16 AM EDT up reply actions

Good draft preview by Cory

at Hockey’s Future.

Cory sounds confident about the NHL-readiness of forwards in Charlotte and the NHL quality of defensemen in the pipeline. He prioritizes the need to rebuild forward depth in the system because of impending promotions and the loss of Osala to the KHL. Looks like a good year to follow that strategy – there seem to be enough good forward prospects in rounds 1 and 2.

by curiouscanesfan on Jun 16, 2011 7:26 AM EDT reply actions

A shot at Landeskog?

If teams think like Cory Pronman at Puck Prospectus, maybe.

Landeskog’s value would be exactly what the doctor ordered for the Canes. There’s also the Skinner connection and the chance that Landeskog could replace Cole down the road.

These lines might look good two years from now:

Skinner Staal Landeskog
Boychuk Dalpe Ruutu

If Cole and Ruutu are both still around, it could be:

Dalpe Staal Cole
Skinner Ruutu Landeskog

by curiouscanesfan on Jun 16, 2011 8:16 AM EDT reply actions