Carolina's Goals Against

by Sluv on Jul 15, 2011 9:38 PM EDT

A few days ago, Bob Wage posted an illuminating article (“Will Carolina Defense Be Improved Next Season?”) showing how the Hurricanes’ defense had improved after the 2011 trade deadline and the acquisitions of Derek Joslin and Bryan Allen. Some posters on Canes Country pointed out that around the time of the trade deadline and as the post-season grows nearer, teams generally change to a more defensive style of play. I wanted to get a better idea of just how the Carolina defense improved after the deadline compared to the rest of the league so I copied the final scores from all 1230 regular season games from www.nhl.com and did some analysis.

To recap, Mr. Wage wrote that Carolina’s goals against average (GAA) dropped from 2.91 during the first 63 games of the 2010-11 season to 2.42 in the 19 games after the March 1st deadline.

I was able to confirm that the Canes’ GAA for the 19 games after the deadline was 2.42 (rounded to the nearest hundredth). As for the first 63 games, the number I got was 3.06 goals against per game. The average for the whole season was 2.91 (239 GA / 82GP)*.

To go from 3.06 to 2.42 is a 20.92% drop. That, by itself is huge. However, some of that can be attributed not only to a change in personnel (most notably, Allen and Joslin), but also to a stylistic change in play that is common throughout the league apropos of the last few weeks of the regular season.

In order to measure any effect that tightening up toward the end of the deadline might have had on the Canes’ GAA, I compared the average amount of goals scored per game in the entire NHL before and after March 1st. In the 941 games leading up to the deadline, a total of 5,305 goals were scored for an average of 5.638 per game. In the 289 games after the deadline, 1,565 goals were scored for an average of 5.415 per game.*

So in support of the claim that NHL teams tighten up their play toward the end of the season, there was a noticeable decline in the average number of goals scored after the deadline – a decline of about 3.96%.

So we can conclude that while a decrease in goals against is common for a team after the deadline (3.96% league average), the 2010-11 Hurricanes were exceptional (20.96%). Reason for the exceptionalness? Maybe the Canes’ were lucky. Maybe their opposition was uncommonly weak in March and April. Or maybe a change in personnel was all the team needed and Allen and Joslin happen to fit that need well. It’s either that or Paul Maurice became a much better coach on the morning of March 1st.

*Note: The actual number of goals allowed for the 2010-2011 season was 234. The reason for the discrepancy is shootout goals. The Hurricanes lost 5 shootout games and since I am using the final scores from games, it looks as if they gave up an extra 5 goals. I realize this throws the data off by a small amount, but I don’t care enough/don’t have the time to correct for shootouts.

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I’d say that is a very thorough and well planned analysis of the phenomena. I myself attributed most of that decrease to near-Playoff-time hockey but clearly Allen and Joslin had a much bigger effect than I thought and the control suggests. Bodes well for next year.

Thank you!

by JussiJuice on Jul 15, 2011 11:08 PM EDT reply actions

Nice job and thanks for the followup! Interesting stuff.

Editing Manager of Canes Country.com

by Bob Wage on Jul 15, 2011 11:56 PM EDT reply actions

Thank you.

by Sluv on Jul 16, 2011 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Great analysis. I’ve always felt like Joslin and Allen helped the defense significantly, and this confirms it. I wonder how a fit Kaberle to replace Corvo’s poor defensive play and a healthy Gleason (if he was injured) will add to that.

by hurricane9 on Jul 16, 2011 10:52 AM EDT reply actions

I really don't think we'll see a big improvement from Corvo to Kaberle on defense.

Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.

Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 16, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions

I never said a big improvement, but he will definitely be an improvement.

by hurricane9 on Jul 16, 2011 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions

I feel like it will be negligible at best.

Plust, Kaberle’s lack of physical play will require us to be more deliberate in picking a line pair for him.

Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.

Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 17, 2011 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions

Why? Corvo wasn’t physical either.

by hurricane9 on Jul 17, 2011 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions

Not very much so, no...

But his 55 hits were about 50% more than Kaberle’s 37, and his 60 takeaways were more than double Kaberle’s 29. I’d say those are significant differences in terms of defensive play.

Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.

Panthers '010: Save the Richardson family coffers! We'll take the winning if we stumble into it.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 17, 2011 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions

As I pointed out in Bob’s article, for the first 17 games of the season, the goals against average was 3.53. (I did not correct for shootout goals either.) Then, we traded for Ian White and got rid of Anton Babchuk. So, there was a decline in goals against between then and the trade deadline from 3.53 to 3.06 or 2.91 whichever number you prefer. So, the decline in getting rid of Babchuk and replacing him with the more defensively responsible White was definitely an improvement. There is a similar noticeable improvement when Allen and Joslin were added after the trade deadline. I also think that Jamie McBain improved in the latter part of the season after he sat for a few weeks from an injury and was able to watch the games and get a better feel for them. While McBain will not likely ever be a physical defender, he has a very good and active stick and uses that to help block a lot of shots.

I don’t think you will see a striking improvement in Kaberle for Corvo but I also don’t think you’ll see a dropoff either. So, other improvements that were made (Brent to help improve faceoffs as well as being a strong penalty killer), Staal’s improved faceoff percentage as the season progressed, Sutter not starting the season with a wrist injury which hurt his ability to win faceoffs, etc., should also marginally improve the GAA. If the team has bought into a stronger defensive focus by the forwards as well, which I think is also part of the lowered GAA post deadline, plus a solid backup for Cam Ward which will allow him to rest as needed, then we should not start out this season with such a horrendous GAA.

One other factor which might help improve the defense is the fact that we will be carrying seven NHL defensemen on the roster this season. While only six might play on any given night, if someone is banged up a little then rather than play, he could sit and rest a game or two so that minor injuries aren’t allowed to ‘fester’ (so to speak). Or there might be some nights where we would dress 7 D and only 11 forwards. This gives us much more flexibility.

by Chuck Burns on Jul 16, 2011 3:06 PM EDT reply actions

McBain

I definitely noticed an improvement in his game as the season progressed and especially after coming back from injury. He was downright awful at times in December and January. I don’t think it’s uncharacteristic for a defenseman to struggle at times during his first full season in the NHL – and playing 20+ minutes a night, no less. The fact that he finished the season strong is encouraging and I’m very much looking forward to watching him play next season.

by Sluv on Jul 16, 2011 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions

If McBain can improve his foot-speed during the offseason, then he should be fine. He doesn’t need to be physical since he has a very great stick. But he was very slow last season and would get beat easily by the faster, more agile forwards, and that’s why he never fared well on the 1st or 2nd pairing but played well on the 3rd pairing (where he played during his better performance). Unfortunately, because of the recovery from surgery, he hasn’t been able to work on the ice much (just started less than 2 weeks ago according to him on Twitter), so we will have to see how that goes.

by hurricane9 on Jul 16, 2011 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Shows how closely I follow our players. I didn’t even know he had surgery.

by Sluv on Jul 16, 2011 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes, he and Jiri Tlusty had shoulder surgery. It flew under the radar and was only mentioned briefly. I think it got covered up by the post-last game loss excitement.

by hurricane9 on Jul 17, 2011 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions