How much bigger will the Canes be in 2011-2012?

We all know the Canes are going to be bigger going into 2011-2012 than they were early in 2010-2011, but by how much? There are several ways to answer this question, including: by average weight, by a count of players greater than stated weights, by looking at how many players are well above average size, and by imagining new line combinations and defensive pairings. I'm not commenting on lines and pairings but do try to answer the question in the other ways.

Admittedly, bigger players don't necessarily play a more physical style, but the laws of physics still apply. If Tomas Kaberle at 214 is no more physical than Joe Corvo at 204 or even if Kaberle plays a less physical style, there will probably be times when greater mass allows Kaberle to hold his position better.

There is no great insight in this post. I'm just sharing some numbers I compiled to satisfy my own curiosity on the chance that others may be interested in this particular way of comparing rosters while we're waiting for the 2011-2012 season. The truth is, I don't know how this will all work out on the ice and want the season to start today. I hoped this simple-minded exercise would give me a better feel for the coming season.

A few notes on the players used in the comparisons: I couldn't think of an ideal way to identify the early roster for last season. O'Sullivan was on the opening day roster but played so little that I plugged in Samsonov. Samsonov's official weight was 188 to O'Sullivan's 190 so this substitution hardly made a difference. The forwards I used to figure the 2010-2011 numbers were, starting with former Canes: Cole, Kostopoulos, Samsonov, Jokinen, Staal, Ruutu, Skinner, Sutter, LaRose, Dwyer, Bowman, Dalpe. (Both Bowman and Dalpe were on the opening day roster.) The list for this season scratches Cole, Kostopoulos, Samsonov and Bowman and adds Stewart, Brent, Ponikarovsky and Tlusty, who was injured early last year.

On defense, the Canes started last season with Corvo, Babchuk, Gleason, Pitkanen, McBain and Harrison and I averaged their weights for this comparison. I ignored 200-lb Ian's White's time in Carolina. Besides replacing two defensemen, the Canes are carrying 7 defensemen this season instead of 6. Since both Harrison and Joslin seem likely to play, I averaged the weights of all seven. There are four holdovers and three new guys: Allen, Joslin and Kaberle, close to a 50% makeover.

After the jump, the numbers and a couple of comments.

Note: Average weight of forwards in 2010-2011 with Carter and Bodie instead of Samsonov and Dalpe = 195.5

On the player counts above a certain weight, I was interested in the total count rather than the number of unique players who fall into each weight class. The number in each class is easy to infer as the counts diminish with greater weights. The downside of this approach is that a player who weighs more than 225 pounds shows up in all the weight ranges below that. That is why the player counts in the rows of those tables add up to more than the number of players on the roster.

Really Big Players

How many Canes are well above average size for NHL players? I would arbitrarily draw the line at 215 pounds. Gleason was the only Canes' player for most of last season who qualified. This year Gleason is joined by Allen, Ponikarovsky and Stewart. The Canes have four players who are big by any standard and three of them play a very physical game. Ponikarovsky looks pretty physical in some of his highlights too.

How much of a difference will the added size make in the Canes' play? Will added size on defense make life easier for Cam Ward? Will a couple of truly big forwards create space for Staal, Skinner and Jokinen and boost their scoring? At this point we can only hope. The change from last season is that the problems of an undersized team seemed obvious and for months there was little reason to expect a change. Now what should be a fix is already in place.

There may be times this year when McBain has a day off (as he did late last year when injured) and both Joslin and Harrison play. That will be interesting because it will mean every Canes' defenseman on the ice weighs at least 210 pounds.Where last season the Canes sometimes used a line of Samsonov, LaRose and Dwyer, this year it's possible to send out Ponikarovsky, Staal and Stewart. The possibilities have changed a lot. We'll see the results in October.