Conditions for a Cup

Once you're in the playoffs, anything can happen. That's what we like to say as Canes fans. But we also wonder if the Canes could survive the first round of the playoffs if they did squeak in. The problem is that the Canes usually don't score many more goals than they allow. Some of us thought the Canes needed to score more goals last year to be competitive, but others thought the key was to clamp down on the opposition.

The Canes have lots of room for improvement at both ends of the ice. Last year's Canes scored 231 goals and allowed 234, with Cam Ward playing spectacularly in net to keep many games close. In 2009-2010, the Canes scored 221 goals and allowed 256. In 2008-2009, the Canes scored 236 goals and allowed 221, which is definitely much better but not great. In 2007-2008, the Canes scored 250 goals and allowed 246. In 2006-2007, the Canes scored 241 and allowed 248. The year of the Stanley Cup, 2005-2006, was different. The Canes scored 286 and allowed 258, for a goal differential of +32.

Summing up, except for the Cup year, the Canes have had a goal differential of - 3, - 34, +15, +4, and - 7. Note that recent goal totals have been pretty low and even in 2008-2009, the total was anemic. The Canes have been on the + side of the ledger three times. Twice they did it mostly by scoring well, once mostly by keeping the opposition off the scoreboard. In the 2008-2009 playoffs, the Canes edged the Devils 4-3, edged the Bruins 4-3, and were swept in the conference finals. That seems pretty consistent with a team that had a goal differential on the year of +15 - their opponents probably had differentials at least as good. Losing either of the first two series 3-4 seems as likely as winning 4-3.

That +15 goal differential from the conference finals year is 10-58 goals short of the season goal differential for any Stanley Cup team in the last six years:

Bruins + 55

Blackhawks + 59

Penguins + 25

Redwings + 73

Ducks + 56

Canes + 28.

Note that even in that glorious Canes' Cup season, the Canes were at the bottom end of scoring differential for a Cup team, a whisker better than the Penguins were in the year when they swept the Canes 4-0 in the conference finals.

The point of this exercise is to lay the groundwork for asking how the Canes are going to get from last year's  - 3 differential to something on the order of + 25. One way would be to allow 28 goals less. That would have been 8th best in the NHL last season. I personally find it hard to envision the Canes becoming that kind of defensive team this year, particularly with the heavy tilt toward offensive defensemen. So I'm assuming the Canes might get goals against on the season down to something like 220 - 225. But to look like a Cup contender, the Canes are going to have to increase their goal scoring by 15 goals or so, too. If they can't push goals against farther down than 225, the Canes will have to score 20 goals more than last season.

This means the Canes have to do considerably more than replace Erik Cole if they're really going to become a contender. What would it take for the Canes to increase their scoring to, say, 250 goals this season? My guesses after the jump.

The Canes not only lost Erik Cole and his 26 goals, but also their top goal-scoring D-man, Joe Corvo, and his 11 goals. So just treading water requires getting other players on this year's final roster to make up for 37 goals. Getting to a really competitive goal total of 250 (really competitive if the Canes can also cut down opposition scoring), requires another 19 goals.

How could that happen? First, as a baseline, I assume we will get this season exactly what we got from the forwards still on the roster as we got last season, plus what the Canes got from defensemen on the roster. For NHL vets from other teams that have joined the Canes, I assume we get either what they posted in a typical goal-scoring year based on their careers or what they posted last season. I zero out the prospects that played partial seasons, including Dalpe, Boychuk, Tlusty, Bowman, Samson, and Joslin. That's because I'm trying to figure out how many goals they have to contribute on top of the vets to match last year's total or reach 250. Below is the vet scoring forecast, if you can call it that.

The 2011-2012 Goal Scoring Forecast Based on 2010-2011 or Historical Average Seasons

 

Canes Vets
Staal	33
Skinner	31
Ruutu	19
Jokinen	19
LaRose	16
Sutter	14
Dwyer	8
McBain	7
Pitkanen	5
Gleason	2
Harrison	3
New Vets
Ponikarovsky	18
Stewart	14
Brent	8
Allen	4
Kaberle	6
TOTAL VETS	207

 

The upshot is that to match last year's goal scoring total, the Canes need 24 goals from newcomers. To increase to a more Cup-competitive level of 250 goals, the newcomers need to provide 43 or more goals. We already learned from JR that 5 forward prospects are competing for two open slots. On defense, Joslin seems to have scoring ability, but he has a very limited track record and splitting time with Harrison will likely hold his totals down. I arbitrarily give Joslin 3 goals on both lower and higher scoring scenarios. I'm showing the goals coming from the most likely candidates, Dalpe and Tlusty but listed the other prospects because they could win the jobs.

The table below shows what's needed to match last season's 231 goals and to score a more competitive 250 goals.

	Score 231	Score 250
Dalpe	13	25
Tlusty	8	15
Boychuk
Bowman
Samson
Joslin	3	3
TOTAL GOALS	24	43

 

Conclusion

Based on this crude analysis, I don't think the Canes will have trouble matching last year's goal scoring, especially since Staal and Jokinen have scored more goals in previous seasons and Skinner, Sutter, McBain and Joslin could show growth. Of course, injuries could also take out a scorer, but I don't want to think about that.

While odds are against Dalpe scoring 25 goals, I don't think it's unreasonable to forecast 15 goals for a healthy Jiri Tlusty or Zach Boychuk. I also think it's good to know that if Tlusty gets hurt, Boychuk can score as well. If Tlusty and Boychuk both get hurt or falter, I'm less optimistic about getting goals from Bowman and Samson because it hasn't happened yet. Certainly both have shown ample goal-scoring talent at every other level and they might break through for the Canes if given a chance in a scoring role.

Are these goal-scoring forecasts reasonable for the Canes' forward prospects? Among them, Dalpe, Boychuk and Tlusty scored 13 goals last year. The three of them played a total of about 928 minutes. That is around 70-80 minutes less than Patrick Dwyer played. But this year, two forward prospects should have full-time jobs, and one will probably play on the second line. That should mean a total of at least 2300 minutes of playing time for whichever two prospects win the jobs. That time ratio x 13 goals should mean 32 goals without adjusting for the change in roles from what Dalpe/Boychuk/Tlusty had last year. That total would easily top the 24 goals from forward prospects needed to match last year's goal scoring. It only falls 11 goals short of my arbitrary competitive target of 250 goals.The counter argument: the Canes' prospects won't score much if they're told to focus on defense to such a degree that they hide the offensive talent that got them drafted high.

It would take 36 goals on top of the target 250 to match that Canes' Cup team. That seems pretty unrealistic, but we can dream.

Anybody got fresh impressions of the prospects from the pre-camp skates?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Poll

What goal totals with be posted this year by the two forward prospects who win roster spots?

17%

25 and 15

3 votes

41%

20 and 10

7 votes

41%

16 and 8

7 votes

0%

12 and 6

0 votes

17 votes | Poll has closed