Are our prospects the real deal?
Rather than adding anymore to the endless speculation, I thought I'd look and see how our prospects are fairing, in order to give us some more data to judge them by.
First off, Brian Dumoulin of the BC Eagles... 3 goals, 14 assists, +8 in 22 games. Best numbers by a defenseman on the team. Last year he had 33 points in 37 games, so he is about on the same pace. He still looks as promising as ever.
Sticking with the D... Ryan Murphy. Statistically, he looks like crap. 14 points, and only one goal in 23 games. Miles off of last year's pace. Of course he was badly injured earlier in the year, and suffered both rejection by the Canes and Team Canada. Hopefully he can put it back together. It probably bears remembering that he is a very one dimensional player, which could make him an interesting, but not great NHLer. I'd be happy if he makes it to Marek Zidlicky levels, or even MA Bergeron, though I fear he is more likely to be an Andy Delmore. Here is a nice recent article about him, and his bad season this year...
http://thehockeywriters.com/future-watch-ryan-murphy/
Moving on to the forwards...
Zac Dalpe looked really good in CLT last year, putting up nearly a point-per-game. This year, not so much (13 points in 21 games as of 1/15). His injuries obviously have affected his play. All of this, however, seems to indicate that he is not a lock to end up as a regular Hurricane, let alone the top-six player we need. Maybe, but at 22, he could be approaching his ceiling.
The other Zach, Zach Boychuk, is only a month older than Dalpe, but shows a lot more signs of having hit a ceiling. He was great in CLT last year, but has only 18 points in nearly a season's worth of chances at the NHL level (69 games). He is probably an excellent candidate for a mid-career role redefinition. He might make the NHL if he added a strong defensive element to his game right now. As it is, he is a failed offensive prospect. 22 points in 28 games in CLT right now.
Victor Rask... putting up decent points in the WHL (31 in 36 games). He had an unremarkable WJC tournament, though earned some praise for his play. Still, I'm not sure he has ever done anything to lead us to believe he will be much of an NHLer. Good, sure, but not star material.
Drayson Bowman is slightly off of his praiseworthy AHL scoring pace from last year (14 points in 28 games). His NHL time was not wasted. This guy has future third/fourth line winger written all over him. Definitely a regular next year, assuming we cut some players loose.
Goalies. I am not going to mention Justin Peters, as he is on the Canes roster right now. Mike Murphy, on the other hand, is doing great things in CLT with his .913 save percentage. Definitely NHL backup material.
Anyway, I am in no way convinced that anyone else in our system is going to do much at the NHL level. Realistically, we should only be really confident in Brian Dumoulin. He should become a top-four defenseman. Bowman will be a good bottom-six forward. Mike Murphy can play backup to Ward, and is probably better than Peters. Otherwise, we don't have much help on the way up. Dalpe might yet make it to a top-six NHL level, but I'd put the odds at less than 50-50. Same for Boychuk, but probably more like 20-80 odds. The reality is, especially in the salary cap era, good players don't linger in the AHL. They make the jump young, ala Skinner and Faulk.
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I suspect from reading this analysis that the author has not watched more than two AHL games involving Dalpe, Boychuk, and Bowman. I further would be surprised if the author has watched two Calgary Hitmen hockey games or two WJC games involving Rask.
The best source for information comes from objective and well-experienced scouts watching the games in person. The second best source would come from watching game videos. The third best would come from people who listened to games. The fourth best source would be from people who studied scouting reports from other well-respected sources.
I put little faith in looking at a player’s statistics and making projections. If it were that simple, scouts wouldn’t exists. Computer models would decide who played in the NHL.
A Quick Summary
Here’s what I’ve seen from watching almost all the Checkers games on video:
1. Dalpe: The best Hurricane forward prospect at the moment. He is very fast and has a scorer’s touch. Dalpe’s knee seems to be almost entirely healed and he has his explosiveness back. Dalpe is at his best when the game is on the line. He is stronger this year; but needs to add a more physical element to his game to maximize his impact at the NHL level. He is not a soft player; but could use more strength,especially in his upper body.
2. Bowman: Bowman plays a complete game. He, too, is fast, and plays with desire. He is not as elusive as Dalpe, but he has a wicked shot. Bowman also plays with an edge.
3. Boychuk: Boychuk had a slump of sorts during parts of this season at Charlotte; but he is playing much better. Boychuk is a natural scorer. When Boychuk gets into trouble it is usually because he is spectating during parts of his shift rather than anticipating the puck. To me it looks like he is still over-thinking and that leaves him stationary rather than moving his feet. When Boychuk skates the entire shift, he is an impact player. Boychuk is working on being more dynamic and creative with the puck. Only time will tell if he will flourish under Muller. There is no reason he cannot be a top six forward.
Here is what I’ve seen from watching Rask both on WHL Live and the WJC. Rask is big, fast, and strong. He plays a very strong two way game. When the game is on the line, Rask takes over games in the way Skinner can take over a game. There are shifts where Rask completely dominates the competition. Rask has great vision of the ice and has a sense of the good ice. Rask is also a puck magnet. The puck seems to find him. Rask is the Hurricanes second best forward prospect. Rask will be a top six forward in the NHL sooner rather than later. Rask’s best assets include his strength handling the puck and on his skates. He is seldom knocked down. Rask also has a mean streak; and if somebody hits him, he takes his time, but he will return the hit at some point during the game. Rask is also an extremely fit player. If he works on his explosiveness and his overall strength this offseason, I would not be surprised to see him take a roster spot.
Samson is a player who uses his skills to the maximum. He has strength and relentlessness. He has a great sense of where the puck is going and gets more than his fair share of pucks. He scores through hard work and finding shooting lanes. He is extremely strong on his skates. He’s shown he can play in the NHL.
In short, based on what I’ve seen, Dalpe, Bowman, and Samson are NHL ready. Boychuk has the skills to be a good NHL top six forward if he puts in the work and if he is given a chance. It’s a numbers game; and given Boychuk’s size, he has to show he is better than some combination of Dalpe, Bowman, Samson, and Rask to make it with the Hurricanes. I have little doubt Boychuk will be a solid NHL player for some time in the near future.
Other notable players for the Checkers. Nash is going to make the Hurricanes roster sooner rather than later. He is big, fast, has great vision on the ice and has fine hands. He is good around the net; and plays a strong defensive game. Nash probably needs to assert himself more on the ice. He’s been hurt recently. I think the Checkers will make the AHL playoffs; and it will be telling to see which players step up their game for the playoffs. Nash is quite well rounded. Brett Sutter is showing he is NHL ready as a fourth line center/wing. He plays a complete game; and thrives when the play gets physical. He is one of the best open ice hitters on the team. Brett Sutter is fast and strong. Brett Sutter has more offensive upside than he is showing; but he has been quite good on the fourth line.
Based on what I’ve seen & heard regarding our prospects, these are my thoughts.
Dalpe – he appears to be a fast player that has the ability to score. He needs to get more strength and become more physical. He also needs to improve his play without the puck and his defensive positioning. I think he should be a top 6 player for the Canes. I think his ceiling is really a 2nd line spot, but on the Canes he could be a 1st liner. He just needs to be the #3 option if he is on the 1st line.
Bowman – Bowman appears to be ready to assume his role in the Canes bottom 6. He’s strong on the puck, has good size, and seems to have figured out how to get points in the NHL during his last call-up. He’s probably a 3rd or 4th line winger, but could at times move up if needed.
Boychuk – Seems to be the odd man out. He’s got skill and can put up points at the AHL level, but his size is a concern. He also appears to have trouble in the AHL when going up against more physical competition. He will likely make it to the NHL eventually, but it will be as a 2nd liner in the right situation or a 4th liner on most teams. I think his career in Carolina is likely over.
Samson – This guy has pretty much proven everything he can at the AHL level and during his most recent call-up, he has displayed a very solid NHL game. He has good size, skating ability, and can win battles along the boards. It really appears that he can be a solid bottom 6 guy; I think he is NHL ready, but with a limited ceiling.
Brett Sutter – He will do almost everything you ask him to do, but he is not the most skilled guy. He has decent size, but is not overly big or strong. He is the definition of a 4th line guy and I believe he can work there & contribute on the PK. In my eyes he is probably a 12th or 13th forward.
Nash – Nash has good size and appears to be bigger on the ice than listed on the roster sheet. He’s not really a scoring power, but probably needs a little more development. I think he will probably be with the AHL team for another season, but should see limited time as the 4th line center. I think his ceiling is a 3rd line/checking line center, but I’m not sure if he’ll ever get there.
Rask – I think Rask is a very interesting prospect. He has the ability and size to be a quality top 6 NHL player, but he needs more “seasoning”. I believe that in a couple of years, Rask will be our #2 and do quite well at it. Given that, he is not going to be an immediate help to the Canes, but should be an important member of the squad in a couple of seasons.
Dumoulin – I really haven’t seen much of him, but from what I have read he is a solid two-way defenseman. He contributes offensively and is very steady in his own end. He has good size, but its going to take some time to get use to pro competition. I think he will probably need at least a year in the AHL before coming up for his first taste of the NHL.
Murphy – I am definitely not as high on Murphy as many people. He appears to be an offensive assassin, but has real limited size. Of course he could still grow, but I think a lot of growth is unlikely. I believe he will have to be paired with someone that can make up for his shortcomings. My thought is that Murphy would be a fine bottom pairing guy/powerplay specialist, but that is about it. For a team that needs better defense, I don’t see him helping out a lot in that area. But with him, I do think that McBain becomes expendable (but that is because I think McBain is a bottom pairing guy/powerplay specialist).
So in conclusion; I believe we have two top 6 prospects, neither are really considered “high-end” players. One should be ready for duty as late as next season, while the other is still a year or two away from making the team. We have four bottom 6 prospects and three of them could make the team next season if we have room for them. The fourth is probably still a year away, but is close. We really have an abundance of bottom 6 players at the NHL & AHL level. We have one forward prospect that just doesn’t seem to have a place, but is probably ready for the challenge of the NHL. There is not a lot more for him in the AHL, but where does he go? The two main defensive prospects are probably a year away from really being able to help the NHL team. One is probably a potential top 4 defenseman, while the other is probably a PP specialist.
JR; please dump some players and bring the kids up to stay!
I put little faith in looking at a player’s statistics and making projections. If it were that simple, scouts wouldn’t exists. Computer models would decide who played in the NHL.
Having the “tools” doesn’t mean anything if you can’t “put it all together.” Yeah, the people watching the games can tell you about matchups, power play time, and injuries, which seem like they’re a really big deal here, as well as possession and instincts in all zones (since obviously in just a few games sometimes you don’t get the bounces). But ideally, the sooner a guy dominates his league, the better.
Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
I believe in next year.
by red army line on Jan 16, 2012 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
Not a straight line
The path from prospect to player, from juniors to AHL, from AHL to NHL is not a straight line. Our recent experience with Skinner and more recently with Faulk is the atypical experience. Even the scouts get the details wrong on who and when regarding their success in the big show. Vrbata’s recent appearance here reminded me of the long transition that is usually the case on being a reliable 2 way NHLer. With Muller here and you know who gone the kids will be used as round pegs in round holes. Samsone as a top 6 and Brett Sutter as an energy player tells us much more about their eventual team role vs. any time spent on ice by a Checker during the first 25 games of this season.
Samson is da bomb
he is going to be an excellent 3rd liner. strong on the puck, big, with a shoot-first mentality. i really look forward to him finding a niche with this team
"I need to make sure I don't get too frustrated and stay focused on my game...The points and the offense, you have to believe, are going to come." - Eric Staal, 11/6/2011
Great Analyis by AD
Appreciate AD’s analysis of some of our prospects. Being ready for the NHL is part of getting there. The other part is getting the opportunity to play in the NHL. Taking into account the NHL rules (waiver rules, salary cap, etc.) as our current roster is constructed there has been little opportunity for any of our young forwards to come in and establish a role for themselves.
Alsop agree with “surgalt” and “stink” statements.
You guys are sleeping on some potential very good players … Levi and Alt are both very intriguing, and Biega is a lot like Faulk (with less offensive upside). Terry and Hofmann could make for good third liners down the road as well, and Frederik Andersen is having a great year in the SEL.
by Cory Lavalette on Jan 17, 2012 10:25 AM EST reply actions
Alt, Levi, Biega, Lowe, Hofmann, Andersen, and Terry
I have seen a lot of Terry; and he does have plenty of skill and grit. Terry sees the ice very well. He’s become a very well-rounded player, even though he began as primarily a goal scorer. I didn’t summarize the rest because I have seen them far less. I’ve been reading up on Andersen and trying to follow his games as much as I can. Because Andersen is on Twitter, it is somewhat easier to keep up with his games, although I tried to find a link to buy a subscription to the videos of his games and the link I found was in Swedish. Any help there from Caniacs would be appreciated.
I saw as much as I could of Hofmann in the WJCs; and kept up with him via a number of the scouts who were there. Here’s what I’ve seen and been told or read (really a combination of the above) thus far:
Hofmann is a sleeper. He is tough and fast. He also is an excellent open ice hitter. I’ve written before, so at the risk of repeating myself, he reminds me of a young Ruutu. He needs to add weight because he plays a hitting game and crashes the net. Hofmann has the entire package. He has that extreme degree of will and speed that it takes to succeed. He also plays a North American game in terms of loving the physical game. I think a common theme for many of the young forward prospects is that they can move seamlessly among any of the top three lines.
Alt is a great athlete. Alt is big, fast, well-conditioned, and highly athletic. He is still working on his skating; but he has great eye hand coordination.
Levi is big and fast and has a mean streak. The last I saw him play, he was a bit rough around the edges; but he has been quite well-coached and is highly coachable by all reports. Lowe is continuing to improve. He is filling out and is quite a good skater. Lowe has no hesitation in dropping his gloves; and having come from a hockey family, he is well coached.
Biega also comes from a hockey family. He’s having an excellent year. He is fast and strong. Beiga is dedicated to being fit and conditioned. He, too, has been well coached.
Andersen is having a tremendous year. He is huge and is extremely athletic. He also has a leader’s personality. I imagine that he will need to continue to focus on being NHL conditioned because the Hurricanes coaches put a huge emphasis on that aspect of every player’s game, including goalies. Barrasso is basically fit enough now that he would look like an NHL player without having to go to training camp to shed any excess weight.
Brody Sutter
Yes we have another Sutter ,Brody a center(Canes 7th rnd pick in 2011) who is now 6’4" and 205lb ,and is on a nearly a PPG pace 37p in 43g on a not so good Lethbridge team.
Brody Sutter
Brody Sutter by all accounts is making very good progress this season. He’s a somewhat late bloomer; but he has all the size, grit, and skating ability one would want in a hard-nosed player. Brody Sutter is most likely a couple of years away; but he is not to be overlooked. Keep your eyes out for Lukas Sutter in the 2012 draft. I would not be at all surprised to see him taken by the Hurricanes if available in the third round; and some scouts have him as a late second round pick.
Doug has covered the positive aspects of each player—for the most part, I agree with Doug.
However, some issues PP17 brings up are valid, but I think most of the problem with Dalpe’s Forward development has been eliminated with the departure of Mo. But I think Mo’s influence on Dalpe accounts for some of the negative about the player’s chances which PP17 sees and Doug doesn’t see.
Dalpe: Fast, good size, strong kid but still not to his best physically—that will come. Remeber with Dalpe—and may don’t, he wasn’t a big kid until late—he grew a lot right before college—before then he was a Boychuk size guy. Dalpe is a late developer physically, so it will take a little time to get to his best strength. So that’s one aspect.
What I saw from his development under Mo: Good soldier player, will do just what the coach wants. Mo gave him 4th line time, told him to play solid, play defensively sound first, don’t make mistakes. So Dalpe played that way: He was sound, but took too few shots and risked very little offensively, all to Mo’s Standard. Yet his shooting percentage was very high when he did shoot. He looked good in camp when he had his chance and showed his skill and that he belonged. Then he got hurt.
Dalpe had to sit out then start his comeback: without a lot of NHL time as a top six forward, he was still learning the pro game. But when he did come back, Mo made him a 4th liner again, gave him 5 min or less so Dalpe never had the opportunity to get back into true game shape, didn;t get to work on his offensive skills. So they atrophied and his physical conditioning/game speed/decision making and shooting were not given a chance. Look at any NHL player coming back from a lot of time away from their prome positons and skills—llook how rusty Skinner looked, hwo often he missed the net last game: and he had a whole year of NHL time previously to fall back on.
So Dalpe never got his groove back in those conditions (4th line, 5 minutes, not offensive role, no offensive support). Getting sent back to Charlotte was good for Dalpe. As I exected, he started slow: he hadn;t played a key offensive role in months. He hadn’t been skating at game speed very often at only 5 minutes a night. But he’s been gaining back his offensive skills, re-finding his instincts and better rehabbing his knee. I still don’t see him back to where he was in training camp yet, but I don’t see as many AHL games as Doug. But I think in another couple months Dalpe will be back to his AHL form and ready to try for another NHL call-up: hopefully after the trade dealine and to play for a meaningful time period.
So like Doug, if Daloe continnues to find his form in the AHL, and if given a good chance, I can see him as a top six forward, 25 goal type guy next year.
Well...
we just traded 2 of our prospects:
http://hurricanes.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=612448
Ready for the Canes to win the Cup again! :)
Yep, posted in Pens game thread ,i’m not sure what it was other than room making for Rask/Hoffman/Murphy etc. The Checkers have alot of UFA/RFA’s next year ,and 7-8 jr players coming up that are higher end players than alot that’s there…guess we’ll see.MM reported it on the 99.9 show with Ruutu which btw sounds like he’’ll be back.
I like Doug’s dismissive tone, and broad assumptions about what I watch and don’t watch. He goes on to dismiss unqualified opinions AND statistics, and then spouts off his own opinions as if they were some how more informed than mine. This is his usual gig. Usually he seems like a nice guy, but honestly, his tone here was pretty asinine. Thanks, jerk!
I also like how most of my time was spent on Dumolin and Murphy, who Doug ignored. When I went on to criticize Boychuk, he gets all bent out of shape. I guess he and Zach must have shared a moment after all those Checkers games Doug attends, I dunno. But I’ll bet I’m right about Boychuk and Doug is dead wrong.
You may well be right about Boychuk. Dadonov plays a very similar game to Boychuk. I wonder why the Canes would trade or Dadonov if Boychuk is also in their plans. My comments reflect more a disagreement about methodology. Without being able to find the more detailed statistics than exist for the AHL, I find the use of basic statistics less than ideal.
I really do watch quite a few AHL games. Admittedly I’ve only made it to five so far this year in person, but I work to keep up with the CLT players as well.
I was not suggesting statistics tell the whole story. Rather I was suggesting that using stats and trends over time, combined with other factors such as age, how the team has used said prospect, etc, might tell us more than simply saying “such and such looks good” when the results just aren’t there. At the end of the day, all the pretty skating and good speed don’t add up to much if they don’t lead to statistical results (scoring or good defensive play).
I did not intend to be offensive. I did intend to differentiate between looking at a narow set of statistics to make conclusions and using staistics such as are found at www.shutdownline.com and using video (live is far better). Dumoulin was lsted the 50th best NHL prospect by Hockey Prospectus.
He’s MyFriendCorey here on Canes Country.
by Jamie Kellner on Jan 18, 2012 10:52 PM EST up reply actions
Doug (or anyone else), do you not see it as at least somewhat significant that Dumolin is the only Cane prospect to make a blip on puck prospectus? I know on the oft-neglected Hockey’s future site he ranks about as highly as Dalpe and Murphy, but I still think he has to be considered our most promising prospect (assuming we count Dalpe as a graduated NHL player).
Dumoulin
Dumoulin and Ryan Murphy are the two best defensemen prospects now that Faulk and McBain are NHL players. Dumoulin by all accounts has steadily improved. Hopefully, he will sign when the college season ends.

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