Game Analysis: Jets At Hurricanes
by Cory Lavalette on Jan 24, 2012 12:42 PM EST
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PrintThe Carolina Hurricanes had scored just four total goals in three outings against Chris Mason and the Winnipeg Jets this season, but it took the Canes less than 10 minutes to notch two goals against their Southeast division foe Monday. Those two goals were enough as Carolina held off the Jets to win 2-1 in their final game before the All-Star break. Jeff Skinner and Tim Brent scored, while Cam Ward continued his hot play by stopping 29 shots. He is 8-3-3 since Dec. 23.
The Hurricanes improved to 18-24-9 and their 45 points leapfrogged them into a tie for 11th in the Eastern Conference — as well as eight points out of eighth place and nine out of the division lead — with a league-high 51 games played.
Three Observations
1. I'd like to think I'll admit when I was wrong. I was wrong about Jay Harrison being a legitimate NHL defenseman, and it looks like I may have been wrong about Jeff Skinner playing center in the NHL. Carolina's sophomore sensation has now scored in back-to-back games while playing in the middle, but more impressively he has held his own defensively. The Canes aren't using him much in the faceoff circle yet — he took just four draws Monday, winning one — but the huge improvements made by Eric Staal in that facet of the game makes Skinner's inexperience in that area not as pressing a matter. Moving Skinner to the middle means Jussi Jokinen can play left wing, where he's most comfortable, and opens up the options for Staal's wings on the top line. Skinner's long-term future may still be at right wing, but for now he's doing just fine in the middle.
2. With the All-Star break upon us, Carolina coach Kirk Muller will finally get a chance to sit back and reflect on his new job. One thing that is clear early in Muller's tenure: the rookie coach is willing to give his young players a chance to make an impact and doesn't bury them for making mistakes. But one face that has been absent is Zach Boychuk. Five forwards have been recalled from Charlotte since Muller took over (Drayson Bowman, Zac Dalpe, Riley Nash, Jerome Samson and Brett Sutter), but Boychuk is yet to get the call. It's safe to say Boychuk's career is reaching a pivotal point: he has been bypassed by several prospects over the past couple years and next season will have to clear waivers to be recalled. Boychuk needs to show Checkers coach Jeff Daniels that he is worthy of his endorsement to be recalled, and then he needs to make an impact in Raleigh if he is to remain in the Hurricanes' future plans.
3. Tim Brent's game-winning goal was his sixth tally of the season, just two shy of the career-high eight he had last season in Toronto. But more impressive is the fact that Brent has scored those goals on just 28 shots, good for a team-high 21.4 shooting percentage. A Carolina player has never spent the majority of the season with the team and finished above 20 percent, and best that I can tell it hasn't been done by a player in franchise history since 1992-93 when Terry Yake scored 22 goals in 66 games. Yake accomplished it with just 98 shots, a 22.4 percent shooting percentage.
Number To Know
17 — Goals allowed by Cam Ward in 10 games this month. With 335 shots faced, Ward has a .949 save percentage in January (with one game left on the schedule) and boasts a 1.67 goals-against average. Furthermore, he has not allowed two goals in a period since Jan. 3 against the Islanders. His record may not be jaw-dropping (5-2-3), but he has been Carolina's best player this month.
Plus
Justin Faulk — The tandem of Faulk and Jay Harrison has become as defensively reliable as the pairing of Tim Gleason and Bryan Allen. Faulk's confidence continues to grow, leading to him being more decisive and more physical. He definitely won "hit of the night" with his punishing against-the-boards check of Alexander Burmistrov in the third period, and he was tied for the team-lead with four. Throw in that Faulk — and Harrison, for that matter — is an all-situations blueliner, and Carolina has a lot to look forward to with a player who is just 35 games into his NHL career. Next up: serving as the Canes' one representative at the All-Star Weekend in Ottawa.
Minus
Chad LaRose — LaRose earns the minus simply for having bad luck. In just his second game back after suffering an injury in practice, LaRose went down again after being cut by a skate. It looks like LaRose's injury is not serious — the team said he would be out a week to 10 days — and that he could be back immediately after the All-Star break, but LaRose will again have to work back to game condition.
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Muller, MacLean and Talent Evaluation
I like the idea of Skinner at center and felt center has his natural position. One area in which I feel Muller and MacLean brought some important improvements is in talent evaluation of the players. I don’t know if Maurice was hampered by long-term personal relationships with some of the players, but whatever the reasons, I much prefer how Muller and MacLean are using the talent on the team. Maybe it is simply the result of a new set of eyes and a clean slate.
+1
I have felt that if the long range goal was for Skinner to be a center in the NHL, that he should start playing it sooner rather than later. Having him on a wing for a few years then trying to convert him would be harder in my opinion. It seemed that under Mo there was not a real concerted effort to move Skinner towards that goal.
He’ll get stronger again next summer with Gary, and will have two all time great face-off men to help with draws, so I expect good things next season in the circle from young Mr Skinner. To say the difference between Mo and Muller’s way of handling the roster is night and day would be an understatement. The magnitude of the Muller hiring continues to be felt, I am still thrilled he’s here.
The center position is looking really strong for us down the road when we can roll out Staal, Skinner and Sutter.
"I'm not going to waste my time with Tuukka Rask" - Cam Ward
Not to mention some of the young centers currently under development. Nash could well be a 3rd or 4th line NHL center down the road.
Rask and Nash
Rask is projected as a second line center with the potential to develop into a first line center. Nash is probably more often projected as a third line center who could start as a fourth line center to cut his teeth in the NHL. Nash is playing first line center for the Checkers and is rising to the responsibilities. It’s easy to underestimate Nash because his style of play is to be very responsible defensively. My belief is the more one puts an isocam on Nash the better his game looks. He’s big, fast, strong, has superb vision on the ice and has hockey intelligence.
Rask has star power skills and is learning to how to harness the skills. He has been excellent for the Calgary Hitmen in the WHL; and he is at his best when the game is on the line. I’ve seen games where he took over the game in overtime. He has become much stronger and much better at finishing as the season has progressed. Both Rask and Nash seem to be players who will do well for the Hurricanes with some more development. I view both Rask and Nash as being players for whom it is more a matter of when than if they will play for the Hurricanes.
Not trying to criticize
but where other than on this site have you seen Rask projected as a 2nd line guy or even possibly a 1st liner? I’m just wondering if there were some links as I’d like to read some more on him. I try to follow the Canes prospects as much as possible but maybe I’ve missed some info in the last few months.
The main reason I ask is that I feel a lot of our prospects get severely overrated at times with best case scenario placed on every prospect every time. I’m just interested in what everyone sees in certain prospects that makes them value Player A over Player B so much more than the consensus. For me, I see Rask as a young man who has already notched a season of professional hockey playing with boys who the majority of will never touch pro ice. I personally am a little disappointed he’s not producing more with his skill set and experience.
by The Gottfather on Jan 25, 2012 10:07 AM EST up reply actions
FWIW, I have him ranked as an 8.0D at Hockey’s Future, which means he has first-line potential (8.0) but is “Unlikely to reach potential” (D). Rask is a wild card for sure … he has the talent, but some wonder about the will and determination.
by Cory Lavalette on Jan 25, 2012 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
I for one see Rask as a projected 2nd line center, but I think a 1st line center would be a little optimistic. Anything could happen, but a him being a 2nd line center in 2 or 3 years would be great from my prespective.
Nash on the other hand looks to be a solid 4th line NHL center that could potentially develop into a 3rd line center. But I doubt Nash is ever going to be more than a 4th line center with the Canes (mainly because of Sutter & the other centers we have or will have in the future).
JR; please dump some players and bring the kids up to stay!
by PackPride17 on Jan 25, 2012 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
Rask
Rask was initially ranked as a top 5 prospect. As Cory mentioned below, he and Hockeys Future have Rask as a 8.0 D. Corey Pronman at Hockey Prospectus has Rask projected as a second line center with possibility of being a first line center. I’ve read that analysis quite frequently; but don’t recall all the other scouting services I’ve seen with that projection. I’ve also asked other scouting services people who are on Twitter and gotten the similar projections.
Rask is having quite a good year as a first year player in the WHL. He’s playing against players who are often a year or two years older than him. It’s his first year on small ice and is in the extremely physical WHL; and the season is not even over yet. He is performing statistically at a higher level than Getzlaf was at the same point in their careers. What else do you want Rask to be doing that he is not?
Brody Sutter
Brody Sutter is slightly outscoring Rask in the WHL on the Lethbridge Hurricanes which are next to last in the same division with the Calgary Hitmen. Sutter has 41pts in 45 games ,and is 6’4 205lb ,and Rask has 36pts in 41 games ,and is 6’1 192lb ,but is 2 yrs younger though ,so i wouldn’t undervalue Sutter just yet…Remember they play against the same teams/player’s ,and are close in scoring pts per game. Rask is a higher ranked player in Jr’s ,but so was Boychuk over Bowman.
Sutter and Rask
I like Brody Sutter and think he is a late blooming big forward with lots of potential. He is also older than Rask as you point out. Brody Sutter is probably more like 6’5" and 220 lbs. They are very different kinds of players; and I don’t at all undervalue the potential Brody Sutter has. He was on my list of players I wanted Jim Rutherford to draft and I had him slotted somewhat higher than he was picked.
Some scouts have Brody Sutter slotted as a third line checking forward; and I think he could one day be one of those two way forwards who hit like freight trains, but also have some good scoring touch.
For one
coming from a professional league, I’d expect at least a PPG player by now. That would be the equivalent of a rookie AHL guy going back to CHL and use their new found knowledge to exploit the weak links. I personally believe if you come out of a professional league with the potential that Rask has, dominating the CHL shouldn’t be hard.
Second, I would still like to see his body fill out a little. He still looks somewhat skinny (I know he’s still very young and has time) and a guy like Getzlaf is 6’4", 220 – a big difference from 6’1", 190. If he adds another inch before he fully matures, he’ll need to be at least 210-215 to withstand the beating a top-center takes.
by The Gottfather on Jan 25, 2012 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
Rask over Last 3 Games
In the last three games, Rask has 4 goals and 3 assists for 7 points. Surely, it is hard to complain about that performance.
It is a completely different game on smaller ice, most players have a hard time adjusting to the CHL largely due to the significant increase in physicality. As many have mentioned, the WHL is the most physical and demanding of the CHL leagues.
For reference, Nino Niederreiter scored at a similar pace (60 points in 65 games) in his first transition year and he had a team loaded with future NHL talent (Johansen, Ross, Rattie, Morrow, etc.).
Rask is playing quite well as a clutch leader of the team on a veritable desert island of talent. I wouldn’t be too hard on him just yet. He will be a Checker/Cane next year and make an impact.
by JussiJuice on Jan 26, 2012 4:50 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
That's a fair point
I just look at it as a guy that’s pegged as a 2nd line NHLer with 1st line potential should be outperforming everyone by a good margin. I may be a little harsh in my stance, but it’s because I see too many “top prospects” that flame out after glittery CHL careers because their game is just not suited to the NHL style.
I don’t hope he fails, I hope he improves and between him, Murphy, Levi and some of the other guys (Lowe, Sutter, Hoffman, etc) the Canes can find a few NHL quality players. I’m usually a little more skeptical than most on prospects though because of the high drop off rate. For example, I may be in the minority, but I don’t see Murphy (as he is right now) as an NHL top-6 Dman
by The Gottfather on Jan 26, 2012 10:19 AM EST up reply actions
Murphy will either make it as a Star in the mold of Rafalski or Orr-lite or prove to be too small and be a pp specialist (MA Bergeron). He can’t really focus on his defensive game as he has been trying to do, he just needs to use his raw offensive talent that brings fans out of their seats every night as much as he can.
Personally I like Murphy and see him pulling it out as a Star.
I think Rask has the overall game to contribute either in the top-6 or as a defensive Center in the NHL. Hoffmann has the moves to sink or swim as a top-6 scorer. Id put Chris Terry in that same boat. Bowman and Dalpe will pan out anywhere in the lineup. Boychuk needs a fresh start somewhere else.
Maybe it is wishful thinking, but I believe Mike Murphy has NHL level talent. From what I read of Fredrik Andersen, he may be even better than Murphy. Possible late round Lundqvist or Halak type pick. Goaltending may be our strongest depth position.
by JussiJuice on Jan 26, 2012 11:30 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I agree on Andersen
Maybe not Lundqvist (that would be exceptional), but a Halak type would be great or even a strong backup type that profiles as a low-tier starter, high-end back up would make me happy.
With Murphy though, I see a guy who can skate through junior players and has a solid shot, but is that a guy you can really carry on an NHL roster? How do you deploy him in NHL games if his defensive game is that big of a liability? I read about McBain’s lack of aggressiveness and how frustrating it can be or how he occasionally jumps in too much, but Murphy seems to be right up that alley. I hope he gets to a point where his defense is more acceptable and he can learn from some of the vets (Harrison, Pitkanen, etc.) on playing D in the pros.
Maybe he can make the jump and use his offense as well as fine tune his defense like a Ryan Ellis or Stefan Elliot. And hopefully the concussion and big hit didn’t scare him even further away from traffic areas and physicality.
by The Gottfather on Jan 26, 2012 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
For what it is worth… I think Ryan Ellis is a rough comparable, but Murphy has better offensive instincts and by far the superior skater (while Ellis holds the better slapshot). Ryan Murphy was heralded as the best skater in his Draft, for any small player that is a huge benefit. His ability to leave forwards in the dust and go end-to-end is unparalleled.
I think people are down on him because of his terrible injury. Every report coming out of the OHL from the past couple weeks say he is right back on track as a gamebreaker. Only 2nd D this year to win OHL player of the week honors (last week).
by JussiJuice on Jan 26, 2012 2:39 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
No signs of slowing down either, last night he put 3 points (goal and 2 assists) and a +4 rating.
I have read multiple places that Kitchener is now the team to beat in the OHL since “Ryan Murphy is back”
by JussiJuice on Jan 26, 2012 2:50 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
If he’s a liability because of his size he could always switch to forward ala Scott Walker ,and he had a pretty good career…Murphy has the speed to make any team have fits at containing him ,if he could put on 20lbs he would be Scott Walkers size..Brian Campbell is only 6’ 188 ,and Murphy 5’ 11" 176 imo could be better at scoring than him.
Played golf with Scotty a couple of times. Know he was listed at 5’10" and 195 lbs. There is NO way. Maybe 5’8" and 180.
I heard that Scott was pretty scrawny when he made the switch from D. My guess is he had no chance to move his career forward unless he made that change. Its harder than many think. Murphy seems comfortable and committed. He isn’t that far off of Faulk size wise and Justin is handling himself fine physically. But to your point there are only so many smallish D that a team can carry and if we have both Faulk and Murphy in the lineup we better also have some big guys.
Face off men
I’ve always wondered how Brind’Amour teaches faceoffs, considering he never practiced them. “You just…have to be better than them and stronger! Get better! Get in the gym!” Does 5 hours of strength training to set an example.
I think Tripp mentioned this in this broadcast or the Islanders game. He said Brindy shows them video of face-offs and very rarely actually practices them.
I think they mentioned it last night. He said that the officials drop the puck differently from coaches, which is why video review is often actually better than the on-ice practice.
by Jamie Kellner on Jan 24, 2012 6:25 PM EST up reply actions
Ahh, I never heard about the officials and the videos. I’d only heard the part about Brindy never practicing faceoffs.
Spurred by your comments, I looked for and dredged up an old article about it that backed up what you said. Thanks for the lesson!
Awesome find on the Brindy article, thanks!
by Jamie Kellner on Jan 25, 2012 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
Oh and one other quick thing, they do practice face-offs more often now than they did previously, at least by my observations from practice. Or maybe I’m just more aware since it’s faceoff king Brind’Amour running them now.
by Jamie Kellner on Jan 24, 2012 6:27 PM EST up reply actions
Muller also seems to have a unique knack of getting the best out of some veterans such as Staal.
In Staal’s case I think it has a lot to do with the fact that Muller has been there as both a two way center and a captain. I thought it was telling how Muller commented on how much pride Staal was taking in his penalty killing. Sometimes it takes a coach who has that unique credibility and perspective to reinforce how much certain contributions are specifically appreciated by the coaches and the team. Interesting that the emergence of Staal as a top shelf penalty killer has improved his overall game; has helped the team lower their goals against; and has contributed to wins.
Sometimes it takes a coach who has that unique credibility and perspective to reinforce how much certain contributions are specifically appreciated by the coaches and the team.
This was always a concern for me regarding Mo. Not sure if he was considered an NHL prospect when he sadly had his eye injury, but the fact is he never played at the NHL level. Fast forward to now look at the credentials of the coaching staff. While JR has made some mistakes with the roster, the brain trust he has assembled is fantastic.
I’m not disagreeing with the value of high-level playing experience, but Scotty Bowman’s minor league playing career was cut short by injury, and he won nine Cups as a coach.
Mo’s ineffectiveness in some respects appears to be more Mo’s personal preference for veteran, grinding players than anything else.
Hockey is not (yet anyway) at a stage where players disrespect coaches and think they’re more important, as they often do in the NBA.
I don’t at all think you have to have been a high level NHL player to be a successful coach. In fact sometimes it detracts. Your example of Bowman; then there is Roger Neilson; Toe Blake; Punch Imlach and the list goes on. In fact if you look at many of the current highly successful coaches there are few with extensive high-level playing experience.
I can’t speak for the other bloggers but my point was more that Muller may have been the right coach at the right time. He has been empathetic to certain players at a time that it was most needed. This team had become uptight and fragile. Some players were struggling with confidence. In this instance I think his playing experience may have been aided in saying the right thing at the right time and maybe focusing certain players like Staal on other contributions than just scoring.
Thanks for the report Cory
and this fan agrees with you completely..and this fan is pleased with a “clean slate” others who can get to skate,contribute and help the canes win…have a good afternoon everyone…
9/11/01 - Never Forget !!
Long Live #63 The Condor
Go Canes & Checkers !!!
We haven’t talked much about our D prospects in Charlotte lately… mainly because none were showing they were ready to battle for an NHL roster spot. Since he returned from his most recent injury Sanguinetti has been on fire. Playing great both defensively and offensively. I suspect that if one or two of our UFA D are traded then we will see him soon.
Watched him last night—looked very good offensively, good stick positioning on defense, and not as yippy/panicky with the puck like McBain under pressure—but he is less physical than McBain and looks very thin and smaller. I’m not confidence in Sanguinetti’s ability to stop an NHL forward from getting to prime scoring areas…..
Given his size, it seems like he would be the same type of gamble of Murphy: could his offense overcome his defensive weakness. I doubt it for his offensive upside over, say, Faulk or Murphy.
Sanguinetti is tall tho … 6’3. There is a benefit to being rangy.
by Cory Lavalette on Jan 25, 2012 9:57 AM EST up reply actions
Boychuk
So Erik Karlsson was taken right after Boychuk, at #15. Rutherford needs to revise his stance on drafting D-Men early. I know we took Murphy last year in the first round. But makes me wonder what they were scouting back in 2008. I know players change over time and maybe Karlsson versus Boychuk wasn’t very clear back in 2008, but Karlsson was taken “right after” Boychuk, so what was the distinction that lead us to take Boychuk ahead of Karlsson, unless it was that Boychuk was a forward and Karlsson a defensemen? I guess you win some (Skinner) and lose some. But we may be better served by a best player available philosophy (not counting goalie) than taking the best forward with our first pick. We missed out on John Carlson, Luca Sbisa, and Michael DelZotto in 2008. I mention this because we need better D to complement Cam Ward, who I think is one of the best goalies in the league.
Agreed. But they did take Murphy early last year. He was the best player available but an undersized D with exceptional skating skills. That was a big leap for JR.
I’ve said it before but I wouldn’t be disappointed one bit if we come out of the draft with either Dumba or Murray. I doubt we’ll get a top 3 pick and Yakupov, Galchenyuk and Gigorenko may be taken before we draft. A future blue line stable that consists of Faulk, Murphy, Dumoulin, McBain and Murray/Dumba would be very nice.
I will say that Filip Forsberg who is a left winger intrigues me a lot though. He seems to have flown under the radar compared the top 3 forwards listed above but I’ve read he may be the most NHL ready and looks like he would be a real solid pick wherever he’s drafted.
"I'm not going to waste my time with Tuukka Rask" - Cam Ward
I’ve seen the same that Forsberg may actually be NHL ready next year. I’d guess the Canes enjoy the option of sending a non-CHL player to the AHL if things didn’t work out as planned (such as with Rask next year).
You have to believe Edmonton will take Murray or Dumba. I’d be shocked if they took a forward. Maybe they trade the pick in a deal for someone like Shea Weber (or maybe move up a few spots for another pick which the Canes will have many), I just don’t see them drafting yet another forward with their defense and goaltending clealy holding them back right now.
Jacob Trouba out of the USNTDP has gotten much hype as emerging to be best overall D in the Draft. May not be a bad option either.
My order would be:
Yakupov
Grigorenko
Murray
Forsberg
Dumba
Trouba
I believe we are all but locked into a top-6 pick. Unless we win the next 8 in a row, our UFAs will be sold off to the highest bidder ensuring this position.
by JussiJuice on Jan 26, 2012 5:16 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Hindsight is 20-20. They’ve done a good job at drafting D (Dumoulin, McBain, Faulk, Levi, ect. ect.) outside of the first round, so it’s hard to knock them on that. They took Boychuk right around where everyone thought he would be selected. Sometimes you hit the mark, other times you don’t.
by Cory Lavalette on Jan 25, 2012 9:01 AM EST up reply actions
Anybody else watching...
The Avs/Wild game? The Wild have a Justin Faulk as well and it both confuses and infuriates me.
Playoff....
2007-2008 8th = 94 pts
2008-2009 8th = 93 pts
2009-2010 8th = 88 pts
2010-2011 8th = 93 pts
I guess we need at least 95 pts to make the playoff
2011-2012
Carolina have played 51 games = 45 pts
31 games left with a possibility of 62 pts
If we say that we need 95 pts to make the playoff, we need to win at least 25 games (50 pts) of 31.
31 – 25 = 6 games is the critical point. We cannot lose more than 6 games for now on.
So we can still make the playoff if we win at least 25 games till the rest of the season, but still possible :-)
Glass full
Yes, it’s mathematically possible.
Now if you’ll excuse me, I have to go buy some lottery tickets.
by drifterscape on Jan 25, 2012 10:36 AM EST up reply actions
Now if you’ll excuse me, I have to go buy some lottery tickets.
Made my day
I believe in strength. I believe in unity. And if that strength, that unity of purpose, demands a uniformity of thought, word and deed then so be it.
by Douchebag St John on Jan 25, 2012 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
Are the rest of the games at Home?
I didn’t think so…..Realistically, I would take 18 – 10 – 3 the rest of the way and get ready for next year.
Away games at Boston, Detroit, Montreal, Washington, NY Rangers, Winnapeg along with our current struggles on the road in the Southeast make the challenge a bit much.
Like our competitiveness now and look forward to next year!
In Kirk we Trust
Spending to the Salary Cap and UFAs
Here’s an article about Parise. I found his comments telling about teams that don’t spend to the salary cap having a far harder time being competitive. Clearly, the players are aware which teams have restricted salary budgets.
http://www.thefourthperiod.com/news/lak120125.html
The Hurricanes now have the coaching staff to be successful. The Hurricanes have a core team that can be successful. The depth of prospects is the highest it has ever been. The chink in the armor is the lack of funds for players’ salaries. It’s a long, difficult road to success on a consistent basis if the Hurricanes organization tries to build the fan base first and winning second.
Cap Spending Does Not Necessarily Make Champions or Winners
It is strange that spending levels by a team are automatically linked to winning by a lot of folks. A quick review of the current standings and spending reveals that:
Nashville is 30th in spending and standing 5th in the West.
Ottawa is 26th in spending and 6th in the East.
Florida is 22nd in spending and 7th in the East.
St. Louis is 21st in spending and 4th in the West
Detroit is 19th in spending and 1st in the West.
These spending levels for the above teams in the bottom half of spending will clearly change because of trades, good and poor play and other issues before the end of the season. There are some really poor teams in the bottom half as well. But there are some poor teams in the top half such as Buffalo. What is clear is that it is not clear at all. It will be interesting to see how the final spending numbers hold up with comparisons of final rankings. I am in the camp of how well you spend and not how much, but still looking at this question.
If I was a player I think I would have a self serving interest to put in people’s mind that they have to boost salaries higher…..especially if I knew I would be a top salary dog somewhere else soon (maybe Detroit or a kick at his own team who is 16th in spending?) Who knows what motivation anyway………
When able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.
Sun Tzu circa 4th Century BC
Check how much some these teams spend on scouting. Detroit, for example has more paid full time Scouts in Europe than we have in total. That is how they find the Datsuyks( 6th round) , Zetterbergs (7th round), Franzens( 3rd round), Lidstroms ( 3rd round) of the world. The draft them right, recognize their long term value and sign them to long term contracts early at favorable prices.
They also have very good coaches. If Muller had been here at the outset we would likely be 7th or 8th at the moment.
Lastly it isn’t always how much you spend but spending it the right way. Was the investment in Kaberle worth it? How about LaRose at his contract hit? Poni? Brent has been good of late but could we have filled that need internally? What if we had gone with Dalpe from the get go, and say a Bowman or Samson instead of LaRose and not made a panic signing with Kabs. The contract value differential could have been used to sign a top 6 forward like Fleischmann with money left over to upgrade the D and say another veteran forward. I have felt from day 1 that part of the problem with how JR crafted this team is that rather than sign through free agency just two quality players he went to the hockey Wal-mart and signed 4 and didn’t address the team’s needs.
Would love to add organizational budgets with line item expenditures for these different things because it would add value to any conclusions…..however access to team budgets would likely be impossible unless you know of places where contemporary and accurate budget expenditure data exist.
You agree with me…..it is not necessarily how much you spend but how well you spend it. And it is so much easier to look at these things in a retrospective basis. Sounds like Detroit reduced some players salary expenditures for more scouting expenditures or so it seems.
When the Canes team was assembled back in the summer did we see all of these things in your last paragraph and raised red flags?
I think a couple of the major things did caused some consternation among folks. The Kaberle contract I think was one, although there seemed to be a begrudging acceptance by most folks on the net. I don’t remember too much flogging of JR back then, but I could be wrong.
When able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.
Sun Tzu circa 4th Century BC
by hurricanefever on Jan 25, 2012 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
Me & my friends were in shock when JR decided to spend that money on Kaberle. We all thought it should have been used to upgrade the defensive side of the defense. I was also not thrilled about the forward signings. I made a comment before the playoffs were over that JR needed to decide between Dwyer & LaRose; pick one and let the other go. But he decided to resign both, which I thought was a mistake. I did hold out a little hope that Stewart & Poni would somewhat work, but that obviously was misplaced optimism. Given the lineup we were fielding at the start of the season, I suspected we would be fighting for a playoff birth, but on the outside looking in. I did not expect the Canes would have gotten off to as bad a start as they did and I do think that JR waited a little too long in making the move to fire Mo.
JR; please dump some players and bring the kids up to stay!
Kaberle, Dwyer, LaRose, no Replacement for Cole
Quite a few people at Canes Country were concerned at the re-signing of both LaRose and Dwyer, the failure to find a replacement for Cole, and spending the money on Kaberle. Some people did want Cole re-signed; but quite a few merely wanted Cole or his equivalent. sittler27’s comments were not historical revisionism; but he was adamant at the time these decisions were going to cause the Hurricanes team and its fans tremendous heartache.
To your point, hindsight is always 20/20. But as noted by others there were several concerned bloggers who were adamant that Kabs was a bad investment. He hadn’t been defensively sound in TO for years and we all saw his performance with the Bruins. The Dwyer/LaRose debate has raged for some time. And while it was nice to see Poni and Stewart’s size added there was concern that it was a stretch that either of these two were top 6. Poni had no produced in LA and Stewart had a hot streak in Atlanta early the prior year and then fiizzled. The concern was whether we had really done anything to fill the Cole void. Did we really want to rely on “projects” to fill important needs. Many voiced that at the time. You will also recall several of us openly wince when we saw the James Neal deal earlier. We could have offered a better package to the Pens and he was exactly the type of player we needed.
Having said all that my biggest concern going into the season was actually the D. I never saw Faulk being as good as he is. Harrison has pleasantly surprised. Gleason and Allen have been better than I thought they would be. I am still ambivalent on Joslin and McBain has been what I worried about. But I think it was really the bad forward play that hurt us under Mo. The forwards have been much better under Muller and that has allowed the D to play much better.
All in all I truly thought that even with the concerns we would be battling for a playoff spot, based largely on what thought that this would be the emergence of Dalpe as a top 6 and one other Charlotte alum surprising…. probably Bowman. The complete collapse of the 1st line early on and the fragility the crept into the team caught me by surprise. And the team had no identity as to what game they really wanted to play. Muller has given the team an identity and has instilled much needed confidence. Unless the team is gutted by the trading deadline they will play .500 hockey or better the rest of the way, which with the talent we have should be a reasonable expectation.
Sometimes you have to hit bottom to start moving in the right direction. Had JR engineered the team better we might have been that .500 team under Mo and we would never have made the coaching change that has taken the team in a different, and in my opinion, much better direction. What enthuses me the most is that Muller needs a certain type of player to make his style of play work. There is now much more clarity in what we need and I hope JR works that plan.
There was always a disconnect between the game Mo wanted to play and the players JR brought into the organization. I for one could not speak to the communication that went on between Mo and JR regarding draft picks, trades, signings and so on. I would assume any GM would get feedback from the coach on those matters, but the Mo hockey and JR player management were not on the same page quite often.
I essential agree and think that not only were fans sort of blind-sided by that early failure of the team but so was management, as well. Step 1 in the corrective process has already been done, MO is gone and Kabs is gone. Step 2 is on-going, turning the team around in a new system and identify the flaws within the team in this new system. Step 3 is happening right now also with JR and his other 29 peers until game time next fall; JR trying to fill the holes with replacements or add quality prospects. There will be more stages to all of this process until we get to the opening game next fall and start our bellyaching all over again. Fans are entitled to be part of this or we would not be fans.
I had no idea the team at the beginning of the season would perform so badly. It has made me reassess how to view success and failure in this hockey world much differently. I continue with trying to figure that out.
When able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.
Sun Tzu circa 4th Century BC
by hurricanefever on Jan 25, 2012 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
Agree and......
I see improvement across the board. The Special Teams are playing at a very high level. We have done an excellent job cycling the puck which I do not recall happening as much under Mo. I also don’t remember the D-men jumping in on the offensive end as much under Mo. For example McBain’s goal against Pittsburgh….It seemed to me that they would typically stay back at the Blue line more and put shots on net from there but on that particular play, McBain jumped to the open area and made a nice shot.
The way we started the year had me second guessing the wisdom of a full season ticket. However the last few games have re-inspired me towards what the future holds!
In Kirk we Trust
Spending to the Salary Cap
It’s a logical fallacy when people say spending to the salary cap automatically ensures success. It is also a logical fallacy to say that failing to spend to the salary cap is not a detriment to success. It’s true that any team can waste the money it spends. Buffalo is an example of a team that has not been great this year despite a huge salary budget. So once again sittler27 is correct. What matters is a combination of how the money is spent, when it is spent, and how much money is spent. For the Hurricanes, the salary budget is too low; and is so low it is forcing Jim Rutherford into decisions that hurt short term and long term.
JR’s approach was try ,and replace Coles points by committee ,but what he didn’t account for was Kabs being lazy ,and out of shape ,and Poni and Stewart had no chemistry with the players that were here ,so that big gamble was horrible as the Ozolinsh experiment ,or worse ,and Mo’s “experience” with Kabs ,and Poni on a bad Leafs team in which i thought why is JR bringing in questionable players from bad teams? It was like well this team is goin nowhere ,but i could see why he didn’t want to pay Cole the money the Habs did ,but throwing away on Kabs was hard to take.
For what it's worth
Ozolinsh came back to play in the KHL and is one of the captains in their All-Star game this year. He just didn’t fit in here. But Kabs had more obvious baggage than Ozolinsh did.
Salary budget too low……..Your statement cannot be substantiated or proven by any measure that I know. Care to elaborate on how you prove a real number when you stare at current examples like Nashville and Buffalo as extremes and perhaps Detroit in the middle? I have asked the question before……what budget is appropriate? I don’t think the 30 GM’s out there will provide any consensus within the current spread top to floor.
Last year the Stanley Cup Champs spent only $1.1MM more than the Canes but yet won the cup while we did not make the playoffs (one point that is). Vancouver spent $3.8mm more than Boston.
Round numbers because I don’t know remember the exact figure but the floor in the first year from the lock-out was I think $28mm while the Canes budget that year was about $31mm. Lets assume these are true but will adjust this latter with the better numbers. In just 4 years payroll expenditure has gone up in the Canes budget by whopping 60.6 percent. Even if my starting points are off by some you get my point. As a business with the SAME number of EMPLOYEES (the players) the payroll has significantly been increased. Now so has all other teams but it still doesn’t make this thing called a budget any easier.
Don’t get me wrong because I don’t fully buy off on my own argument but I can see there are many things at work here that effect budget. If those numbers I developed are true over the last four years how can any business conduct normal operations? Can you, if your business had that much payroll increase spread over the same number of employees in four short years?
If you build it they will come. If they come they will pay. If they pay you can spend more. If you spend more wisely then you are Detroit. Following the logic trail that seems to be where we go……..
When able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.
Sun Tzu circa 4th Century BC
by hurricanefever on Jan 25, 2012 5:02 PM EST up reply actions
I think the moral of the story is that if you’re not going to spend a lot of money then you best make damn sure you spend it wisely – something I think JR failed miserably at this year…
"I'm not going to waste my time with Tuukka Rask" - Cam Ward
Yep………..I don’t give him a good grade either…….however, he has a chance for redemption in the eyes of us out here. Logically he has to know that………
When able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.
Sun Tzu circa 4th Century BC
by hurricanefever on Jan 25, 2012 5:10 PM EST up reply actions
JR's Comment
When JR mentioned “a trade that makes financial sense” imo could mean spending on the top 6 for value ,and filling out the bottom 6 with who he has in Charlotte which would work “if” he get’s another forward and resigns Ruutu to allow Skinner to play with center with Jussi and Ruutu that would bring Bowman/Dalpe to go with Sutter ,and would allow JR to get a replacement Dman/Dmen he may lose ,and a line with Nodl/Brent/Stewart/Dadonov etc ,but with the depth at forward in the bottom 6 you could add Rask/Nash/Brody Sutter to that…It will be interesting to say the least I would like the 3rd/4th line’s to be basically interchangeable to keep the top 6 fresh for the 3rd period ,and back to back games.
Yes…….he might have meant that. But right now we are hearing the “GM 2-step Speak”. Something clear enough to give some sense of direction but vague enough to hide intentions. Until he actually pulls the trigger I am guessing we will know nothing of substance until then. Rarely are breaking sports news broken early around these parts…….
When able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.
Sun Tzu circa 4th Century BC
by hurricanefever on Jan 25, 2012 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
Anything he says in the local media is out there for any other GM. I think he has a clear idea of what he’d like to get done before the deadline passes.
He is sly like a fox…….most times I think the quotes he gives Chip and others are meant for GMs and not us.
When able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.
Sun Tzu circa 4th Century BC
by hurricanefever on Jan 25, 2012 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
From Ottawa vis TSN
“Hurricanes GM Jim Rutherford has been silent on the trade front. That’s partially because Carolina has played better of late, but it also has something to do with his outrageous asking prices for players. League sources said the Hurricanes are asking for either two No. 1 picks or an ‘A’ prospect and a No. 1 pick in exchange for one of pending UFA Ds Tim Gleason, Bryan Allen or Jaroslav Spacek. The price will come down before the deadline.”
I think any GM would be hand carried out of town if he gave up two number one picks or a One plus a high prospect for a UFA in the category of our D. I can see maybe a first rounder from a team that will finish near the top of the standings since that will be near the end of the round and is really not much better than a high 2nd round pick. I hope this is just posturing from Jim. But if this is indeed the case (and several sources have reported it) don’t look for any early trades involving the Canes.
I think the original source of those quotes was Bruce Garrioch. Nothing surprises me anymore coming from that guy. He also said JR had negotiated with Ruutu……..I don’t think that happened either.
http://www.ottawasun.com/2012/01/26/rink-wrap-how-about-miller-for-hiller
When able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.
Sun Tzu circa 4th Century BC
by hurricanefever on Jan 27, 2012 1:40 PM EST up reply actions
You could be right that the “source” is just on person and every other rumor/blog site is picking this up. But similar info has been popping all over that JR has a high asking price.
For example, I did get feedback from one source who is well placed in Philly who offhandedly said “yea we’re interested in Gleason, but Jim must think he’s the second coming of Bobby Orr based on the asking price”. At that time I was trying to get him to acknowledge if he suspected that JVR was in play. He said he wasn’t aware of the details but had the distinct impression that the team knew they had to give up something of high value to get a quality D and that they had some outstanding bargaining chips and that I could probably guess who might be moved.
My guess at the time was that JVR and Simmonds were two that could be part of a deal but that if this source was accurate that Philly was in no rush; that they placed high value on these guys; and that they wanted a real quality guy in return.
JR knows what he has and knows that others want it. At this point in time there’s really no reason not to be aggressive in what he wants to trade one. If he gets one team to bight then the market is set and he’s got three guys to trade.
Furthermore there’s a school of though in negotiating that says if you are aware of something’s value then it is better to act first. Naming a price first sets that value in your head and anchor’s the value. JR’s current asking price is high, but it’s not so high that people aren’t trying to talk him down a bit which is exactly where he wants to be. For more on this negoation tactic check out episode 1 of slates Negotiation Academy here.
Then Stats aren’t truth, even though the stats are true…
He probable is asking a high price……..he just has to know when to blink, trade and run. Although a top-6 has been on at least 10 teams want list, I really keep seeing Timmy’s name more often. In a weird sort of way Timmy may yield more than Ruutu……would that be something……..
When able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.
Sun Tzu circa 4th Century BC
by hurricanefever on Jan 27, 2012 3:04 PM EST up reply actions
Agree--but...
As I’ve stated elsewhere—JR sets a too high a price on our players and as in the past, we got nothing for them, and then the ood part: Despite how high JR thought their value was to someone else, he want’s and expects them to take less pay and years from our team going forward (because they aren’t Bobby orr or Lemieux) or he will not re-sign them. So JR is hypocritical in these dealings.
It has hurt the team in the past, and I suspect will hurt us again. I can see us not trading these guys, not getting any prospects or picks, then not signing them either as other teams offer better money or better terms.
I’m not optimistic JR will be doing us any favors during this deadline….
Who are these players that JR has not traded and let walk for nothing? Cole? That was because the team made a (very very poor) decision to be buyers and not sellers at the deadline last year. Every attempt was made to move Ray Whitney but he refused to waive his NTC. No potential UFA has an NTC this year other than Allen and I imagine he’ll take the opportunity to play for a playoff team that Whitney refused. Every other player that could be moved two years ago was moved. I’m not sure where this negative feeling of JR’s ability to handle the deadline are coming from.
Is there a better time of year than the NHL Trade Deadline?
Not entirely true. Ray was ready to waive the no trade on the condition that if he was to be a rental then there was a handshake deal as to what would be on the table when he came back to the Canes in the summer. A lot of things went south in that whole scenario but it wasn’t all on Ray. I know I’m asking you to take this on faith but while I like the guy, to know Jim is to also know how stubborn he can be. He even jokingly acknowledges that.
Here’s the thing, I’m not getting back in to the whose and what’s of the Whitney deadline deal. Don’t care to discuss that like I don’t care much to discuss the team right now. What I will say is this: there was a deal in place that JR agreed to to move Whitney to the Kings for Tuebert and a Second. That was reported by Bob McKenzie. Jr mentioned after the season that there was a deal, did not specify what the deal was, in place that Whitney used his NTC to disallow. The only point I’m trying to make is that JR tried to move the guy and tried to move him for the right price. Everything else is water under the bridge and I don’t care to re-hash it. If you want to re-hash it I’m sure Doug would be more than happy to join that conversation.
Is there a better time of year than the NHL Trade Deadline?
Oh well excuse us. You want to state what you think you “know” but then be dismissive if anyone has a contrary view. Not how blogging works.
Several of us on this blog were neighbors or otherwise knew the Whitney’s.. They are very social. Now just like you don’t talk personal salary and contract details with your friends neither does Ray, but our wives were close. Similar to most of us, the job/salary/contract you would take in Raleigh are a lot different than what you would agree to in a very large and expensive city like LA. As we understand it, Ray would have gone there as a rental but of course LA was not going to give up as much unless they were assured Ray would sign a contract. To move his family to LA, Ray wanted a 3 year deal and more money to be able to afford the lifestyle he wanted for his family. Can you blame him. And Ray didn’t just get that no trade clause originally because Jim was in a giving mood…. he left money on the table to get that for security for his family.
Where do you think Bob got his info from….. his son is Mike McKenzie who is in the Canes system. He has a direct pipeline to JR.
Lots if revisionist history after this deal and something happened in the middle of the subsequent negotiations between Jim and Ray that few if any of us know for sure, but the bottom line he eventually signed with Phoenix for the same deal we were pretty sure he and Jim were at one point discussing here. Something queered all that.
Oh well excuse us. You want to state what you think you "know" but then be dismissive if anyone has a contrary view. Not how blogging works.
Clearly there’s a miscommunication going on here and I’m willing to be the first to say that this may be on me. I have a feeling you’re reacting to my line:
No potential UFA has an NTC this year other than Allen and I imagine he’ll take the opportunity to play for a playoff team that Whitney refused.
I want you to understand that I did not intend to disparage or blame Ray Whitney for what did or did not happen at the deadline in 2010. I can see that there are better words I could have selected there. While my intent was not to place blame the words above look like I am. The only point I’m trying to make is that JR had a deal in place and Ray did not waive his NTC.
Is that better?
Clearly you were close to the Whitney’s. That’s awesome for you. I realize that probably is coming off sarcastic but it’s not meant to be. Ray seems like a good guy to know and a fun guy to hang out with. His wife was always the funniest one when the team used to do the ask the wives segment. If you were that close I am truly envious of you. But I am not trying to re-open the discussion of who are what should have done what at the deadline in 2010. It’s been had and quite frankly too many of us are emotionally tied to one side of the other for the discussion to get anywhere. My only point was to engage Squeaky on why he thought that “JR [won’t] be doing us any favors during this deadline” and point out that JR did try to move players in 2010 and that the team made a poor decision in 2011 to be buyers and not sellers.
Is there a better time of year than the NHL Trade Deadline?
Got it.
I was being somewhat sensitive to the notion that JR is Yoda and has it all figured. I’m on the fence in the JR/Whitney situation. I like them both and saw both sides. I am at times concerned that Jim can be a bit stubborn and hold his position too long. Also don’t get this absolute refusal to make mid season contract extensions if it is not a distraction. However he has had more good years than bad as a GM and it is easy to for me to sit in the bleachers without any of the negotiating facts in hand and critique.
Every year is important but Staal and Ward are hitting their primes and Skinner is emerging. We have a new coach with an exciting brand of hockey. What we do now to build around them I think is critical to the direction of this team for quite some time to come. We can’t afford to come up empty handed and have keys assets like Ruutu and Gleason leave w/o a suitable return.
Also don’t get this absolute refusal to make mid season contract extensions if it is not a distraction.
I always felt this made sense in the pre-cap days, but I’m no longer convinced it makes sense now. Waiting until after the season to know what the cap will be is important, but if the cap drops $2 M that has little bearing on the Canes. They could go cheaper if the floor also dropped, but it seems like you’d set your budget first.
Is there a better time of year than the NHL Trade Deadline?
Mid-Season Extensions
There is at least one article saying that Jim Rutherford is or was discussing an extension with Ruutu. I posted that link previously; but here it is again:
The good news is that if true Jim Rutherford is now negotiating mid-season extensions in some situations.
The original source as I said yesterday was very likely Bruce Garrioch and I only think half of what he says is true, the rest he finds in his head somewhere. I will post that link again here.
http://www.ottawasun.com/2012/01/26/rink-wrap-how-about-miller-for-hiller
I also quizzed another local journalist who doesn’t understand where Bruce gets his stuff since most of his stuff on the Canes is wrong. He is of the belief that JR has not made an exception to his in-season prohibition on negotiating contract just for Ruutu. I instinctively believe this even though I have never talked face to face with JR.
Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him.
Sun Tzu circa 4th Century BC
by hurricanefever on Jan 28, 2012 9:43 AM EST up reply actions
I did the above post before I had a chance to scan the news out there…..here is another rocket, posted last night from dear Bruce:
AROUND THE BOARDS
Should the Hurricanes decide to tear it down, don’t be surprised if GM Jim Rutherford goes with the total rebuild. C Eric Staal isn’t going to be moved, but some NHL insiders are wondering if G Cam Ward will be part of the solution. His contract, with a $6.3-million cap, hit runs through the 2014-15 season. The ’Canes are nearly six years removed from their Stanley Cup win and several teams would be interested in Ward if he hits the market ...
Can you believe this!….his “NHL insider” must be the mail room guy at the NHL headquarters…….. or maybe his mail room guy at the Sun…..
Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him.
Sun Tzu circa 4th Century BC
by hurricanefever on Jan 28, 2012 10:00 AM EST up reply actions
Garrioch and Bob Watter’s have never been Canes fan’s to say the least ,and of course for contraction ,and if you notice they have nothing ever to say positive about any team above the Mason/Dixon line or west of Chicago unless there in Canada ,so anything that comes out of Watter’s ,or Garrioch’s mouth’s is just diarrhea , or vomit period.
Oh well excuse us. You want to state what you think you “know” but then be dismissive if anyone has a contrary view. Not how blogging works.
Several of us on this blog were neighbors or otherwise knew the Whitney’s.. They are very social. Now just like you don’t talk personal salary and contract details with your friends neither does Ray, but our wives were close. Similar to most of us, the job/salary/contract you would take in Raleigh are a lot different than what you would agree to in a very large and expensive city like LA. As we understand it, Ray would have gone there as a rental but of course LA was not going to give up as much unless they were assured Ray would sign a contract. To move his family to LA, Ray wanted a 3 year deal and more money to be able to afford the lifestyle he wanted for his family. Can you blame him. And Ray didn’t just get that no trade clause originally because Jim was in a giving mood…. he left money on the table to get that for security for his family.
Where do you think Bob got his info from….. his son is Mike McKenzie who is in the Canes system. He has a direct pipeline to JR.
Lots if revisionist history after this deal and something happened in the middle of the subsequent negotiations between Jim and Ray that few if any of us know for sure, but the bottom line he eventually signed with Phoenix for the same deal we were pretty sure he and Jim were at one point discussing here. Something queered all that.
Ruutu
Another from TSN, this one regarding Ruutu.
" Blue Breakfast on TSN Radio 1050 Darren Dreger said he expects trade talk to start slow while teams figure out if they will be buyers or sellers heading up to the trade deadline. One name Dreger said that could be moved as early as next week is Carolina Hurricanes’ forward Ruutu."
Dreger usually has good sources and tends not to just throw wild rumors out there.
This one I believe………with the big flap about the Leafs doing a major deal soon I wonder…………
When able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.
Sun Tzu circa 4th Century BC
by hurricanefever on Jan 27, 2012 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
What do you think the Leafs could offer us in return. Many sites seem to have Boston, Rangers and Wings as teams interested in Ruutu. If that is the case I don’t see any sending us a current roster guy in return and it will be for draft pick(s) and/or prospects.
Ruutu in the News
http://www.ottawasun.com/2012/01/26/rink-wrap-how-about-miller-for-hiller
If this article is correct, Jim Rutherford did what we had hoped he would and was talking about extensions with Ruutu’s agent. The article suggests both sides are far apart. If so, a trade is inevitable. I would love to see the Hurricanes rack up first round picks in 2012 for Gleason, Allen, Spacek, and Ruutu for any player with whom Rutherford is unable to reach an agreement on an extension. Five first round picks in 2012 would be a sea change in terms of raw talent for the Hurricanes. It appears the asking price is either two first round picks or a first round pick and a prospect.
I only think Ruutu and Gleason are likely to bring in a first round pick. Allen is a wild card, and it’s possible, but for whatever reason he doesn’t seem to have the same value on the market. This could work out well for JR though as a team who thinks they can’t afford Gleason could make a strong play for Allen early to ensure they get him thus driving up the prices for all involved. Spacek I would suspect will be a second round pick at best.
Then Stats aren’t truth, even though the stats are true…
Allen
Has a NTC he would have to waive which Whitney used to nix a trade with LA a couple years back ,so Allen would have to approve the team JR is talking too.
god I hope we don’t just get draft picks back for our UFAs. They most likely would be low 1st round picks and most would not contribute for 2+ years. I wouldn’t mind seeing another 1st round pick, but we need some real players/prospects that can help this team out sooner rather than later.
JR; please dump some players and bring the kids up to stay!
Yeah were "overstocked’ with that level of players ,and i’d like a roster player ,if it’s top 6 as either team in both cities are jammed full of bottom 6 ,some high end Dmen prospects like Aulie or Schenn(doubtful) from the Leafs would work ,but if it involves the Leafs i would take Macarthur or Bozak ,however JR ,and Burke doing a trade would be like two goats butting heads ,and even if the Leafs added Ruutu/TG both they are done early anyway.
If the Leafs are short at forward and long at D and have a rare window to the playoffs that is slightly open JR knows that…….in my mind it would have to be at least Schenn or better. Cap is $3.6 for him so pretty close. JR would have to look for his 1st line ling forward elsewhere if he and Burke play together………
When able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.
Sun Tzu circa 4th Century BC
by hurricanefever on Jan 27, 2012 3:00 PM EST up reply actions
Here is Lyle Richardson’s take on Shenn today which I got the idea from and it seemed like a good deal for us since after we trade Gleason, Spacek, and Allen we are certainly going to need new D……Shenn is 22 I think and a horse.
http://www.thehockeynews.com/articles/44420-Rumor-Roundup-Did-Liles-deal-seal-Schenns-fate.html
When able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.
Sun Tzu circa 4th Century BC
by hurricanefever on Jan 27, 2012 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
The thing to remember though is that Schenn can bring back much more than just a rental. Acquiring Schenn would likely cost the Canes Gleason and Ruutu and Boychuk. That’s not necessarily a bad deal, but if the Canes were going to pick someone up I’d prefer it be a young forward. I think there’s is depth on the blue line.
Is there a better time of year than the NHL Trade Deadline?
Might be but Burke can’t take back salary, at least not that much from any team I think…..if he is going to do something it might have to be one-to-one with change going both ways to even it out……
Besides, I think Burke would want some assurances that he can resign Ruutu and JR would likely allow some conversation.
When able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.
Sun Tzu circa 4th Century BC
by hurricanefever on Jan 27, 2012 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
I guess I should say that I don’t think the Canes are going to end up with Schenn at least not at the deadlin. His age and contract make him more valuable than something flipped for a rental or even two. Personally I think Schenn is more likely traded at the draft unless Philly is willing to move JVR for Schenn at the deadline.
That said you make a good point about the inability to take back salary. Cap Geek says the Leafs will only be able to take on an additional $2.8M in annual cap hit at the deadline. Even moving out Schenn they can’t make Ruutu and Gleason work. They’re about $1M short if I’m doing the math correctly in my head. Grabovski could potentially come to the Canes to make the money work, but if the Canes take him as a salary dump then Toronto needs to throw in a second round pick.
Is there a better time of year than the NHL Trade Deadline?
When I first looked at this I realized much more would have to happen which makes the variations endless……and then my brain started to hurt and I stopped. What is known is Burke NEEDS a hard nose forward who can score. He has to have one (so many people say) to assure himself something that has not happened in a long time in TO. He is one GM who would be willing to risk in order to pluck that apple I think.
When able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.
Sun Tzu circa 4th Century BC
by hurricanefever on Jan 27, 2012 4:05 PM EST up reply actions
UFA's
Apparently the list of teams interested in Gleason/Ruutu grows by the day,Lyle Richardson(THN) who is usually pretty accurate had some interesting thought’s on our most popular UFA’s. With all the teams that are calling could drive up the price ,also I seem to remember JR had to fork over a #1 pick for Doug Weight in 2006 when Weight was no where near in his prime.
http://spectorshockey.net/wordpress/2012/01/27/latest-on-the-stars-and-blackhawks/
http://spectorshockey.net/wordpress/2012/01/27/nhl-trade-rumors-january-27-2012/
He pretty much agreed that Garrioch is FOS
Take Out Bids as Well
An additional consideration is that other teams do not want Gleason, Ruutu, Allen, or Spacek to go to a competitor’s team. Some GMs will have to consider doing a take out bid rather than have these guys come into their conference for the playoffs.
That’s exactly what Washington did for Corvo two years back and it netted JR a second round pick, Pothier, and Osala. That kind of package could easily entice JR this time of year as even with Joni coming back and Sanguinetti he may still need a body.
Then Stats aren’t truth, even though the stats are true…
Auction
I agree the closer to the deadline the “oneupsmanship” competition from the other teams especially in the same conference will drive the price up ,but only a few teams will likely have what JR wants like the Blackhawks Rockford team who the Checkers beat in a SO last night looked like other than Pirri it looks like there players of interest to JR would be on the roster much like the Flyers ,and Leafs other than Khadri ,and the Checkers will be looking to clear room for the Juinor players that are coming up ,so imo JR is looking for top 6 roster players or picks as the Checkers are full of prospects other than Dmen ,and next year they will have plenty of them as well.
Darren Dreger reporting Columbus would love to move Jeff Carter but are unlikely to find any takers. If that is true, the Canes should jump on him. Affordable for the next 9 years at $5.3 million, big, annual 30+ goal scorer who would be perfect to play next to Staal for years to come. He is obviously very unhappy in Columbus, I think playing with the likes of Staal, Ward, and Skinner would be more exciting for him. I wonder what it would cost.
Maybe McBain + Boychuk + 1st in 2013 + 2nd in 2012 (SJ) would get it done?
Can’t give up a first. Don’t trust us to turn it around that quickly (even with Carter). God forbid we have a Kessel trade on our hand.
The chance that any 1st round pick we take will turn out to be a player capable of putting up 46 goals in the NHL is right near 0%.
This year’s 1st we should hold onto because it is likely a top-5 pick. But with our team as is, Muller as our coach, adding Jeff Carter, and a top-5 NHL ready pick like Yakupov, Grigorenko, Forsberg (possibly), or Ryan Murray… I can’t see us picking inside the top-10 next year. Worth it, imo.
I think your package is spot on if not a little high. The Canes may only have to give up McBain in the deal. I am a bit worried about Carter as a fit on this team especially given his NTC and the length of his deal. At this point I would go younger than Carter for the next few years and then look to supplement with vets in 2013-2014.
Is there a better time of year than the NHL Trade Deadline?
JR highly values character. Not sure he would see that in Carter, especially as he was shipped out of Philly for being too much of a Party guy over being a team player and hard worker.
A bird in hand always beats bird in a bush…Proven NHL 1st line player > 1st round pick’s “potential” ,and Carter may have been a “parrty” animal ,but never got in trouble which is the bottom line.
Well there wouldn’t be too much worry about Carter being a ‘party animal’ for at least half the season because he’d be in Raleigh. No offense.
by drifterscape on Jan 29, 2012 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
Say No to Kessel Trades
Jim Rutherford will not take on Carter unless he reverses himself on not taking on contracts beyond 7 years (which as I recall is the longest period any contract can be insured). I’d love to get Carter; but I would not give up 1st round picks if I were Jim Rutherford. To the contrary, I would be hoarding as many first round picks as possible. The Hurricanes lack some extremely high end talent to go with Ward, Staal, Skinner, Sutter, and Faulk. I think Dalpe is close and will get there as a 20 plus goal scorer on a consistent basis.
I’d much rather have Rutherford obtain two, three, or even four, more first round picks. From what I’ve read and seen, I think the top three picks are in no specific order: Yakupov, Galchenyuk, and Girgorenko. Forsberg is a wild card. Some scouts have him equal to Yakupov, Galchenyuk, and Girgorenko, while others have him slightly behind them. Any of the four would really help the Hurricanes.
Here’s a link to Hockey Writers Top 60. Many of those players would add significantly to the talent available to the Hurricanes. http://thehockeywriters.com/top-60-prospect-midseason-rankings/
Here’s a paragraph on Galchenyuk to give a sense of the insights and thoughts by Hocker Writers, but the entire article is well done. When I read comparisons to Malkin, and given what I have been able to glean about Galchenyuk’s positive attitude and leadership qualities, it makes me hope against hope he is picked by the Hurricanes.
4. Alex Galchenyuk – Center, Sarnia Sting, OHL
Galchenyuk and Yakupov were a match made in heaven and I still don’t know who benefited from it more. Galchenyuk went down early in the year to a season-ending ACL tear. So me placing him 4th overall speaks to just how big of an impact he can have — even if he hasn’t played a single game this season. Galchenyuk has explosive speed and great stick work. His setup skills rival the best prospects in the world. I’d compare him to Evgeni Malkin.
Alex Galchenyuk; video of goal
http://www.hockeyprospect.tv/2011/10/alex-galchenyuk-goal-vs-windsor-2011-01.html
I came across this website that tries to collect goals or other notable plays by prospects. It’s a pretty good reference point. This goal by Galchenyuk is impressive. Ultimately, I still think Staal’s best, highest position under Muller will be as a right wing if a big, fast, skilled elite young center can be found. I’d like to see what happens with a Dalpe/Galchenyuk/Staal line.
Based on the body of different comments I’ve read, it looks like Ruutu will be traded, the right wing position is going to be pretty much wide open. With Skinner playing center, it does give a wide range of choices for the second line.
Another Galchenyuk Hockey Video Worth Watching
I ran across this composite video showing some Galchenyuk highlights. It’s worth watching:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5tWK459ZXo
Some scouts compare him to Hossa and Malkin.
Anyone else think Justin Faulk is a darkhorse to win the Hardest Shot competition? There is a reason they put him there… Kid has a howitzer.
Can’t find any info on his shot ever being recorded. I bet he breaks 100 mph which would be extremely impressive for his size compared to that Neanderthal Chara.
More Articles Saying It Appeals Ruutu will be Traded; This Time Pierre LeBrun
http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/14334/trade-rumblings-ruutu-carter-on-move
LeBrun says that it appears Ruutu will be traded and that the trade may occur this week. It is not the news I had hoped to hear; but it is what it is.
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