Game Analysis: Hurricanes At Avalanche
by Cory Lavalette on Feb 12, 2012 11:30 PM EST
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PrintFor the second straight game the Carolina Hurricanes lost in overtime. Ryan O`Reilly forced Justin Faulk to turn the puck over in the neutral zone and ripped a slap shot past Cam Ward with less than two seconds remaining in the extra session to give the Colorado Avalanche a 4-3 win. Tim Brent, Jiri Tlusty and Eric Staal for Carolina, and Ward made 29 saves.
The Hurricanes are now 20-25-11 with 51 points, last in the Eastern Conference through 56 games.
Three Observations
1. Tlusty continues to show off the skills that made him a first-round pick back in 2006. With 23 seconds left in the first period, Tlusty took a Staal pass and quickly fired it past Jean-Sebastian Giguere to give the Hurricanes a 2-1 lead. Tlusty now has a four-game point streak and even though he's playing on the top line, he's only playing between 14 to 16 minutes each night and is doing his damage at even strength.
2. With Ward, Giguere and Justin Peters suited up, the game had three goalies who were selected by the Hartford/Carolina franchise in the game. Only eight goaltenders drafted by the franchise have made it to the NHL (Ward, Peters, Giguere, Mike Murphy, Manny Legace, Mike Lenarduzzi, Kay Whitmore and Darren Jensen), so to have nearly half of them in the game was surely a rare event. Semyon Varlamov, Colorado's backup Friday, was selected by Washington before being traded to Colorado this offseason, but happened to be drafted in Raleigh at the 2004 NHL Entry Draft
3. The Canes did not commit a penalty against the Avalanche, the first time this season they did not get called for an infraction. But Carolina was unable to convert on any of their three opportunities with the man-advantage. The Hurricanes are 0-for-February, having gone four games without scoring on the power play. They last scored with the man advantage when Tim Brent tallied in a 5-2 loss to the Islanders Jan. 31.
Number To Know
2-11 — Carolina’s overtime/shootout record this season, the worst in the NHL. No team has fewer wins after regulation, and only Los Angeles and Florida have as many losses. Detroit holds the league's top record in overtimes and shootouts at 10-2.
Plus
Eric Staal — The Carolina captain continued his hot streak, scoring a goal and adding an assist. He was also a plus-2, making it four straight games Staal has finished on the right side of the plus/minus ledger. He is now minus-21 on the season, and is out of the NHL cellar as the Islanders' Milan Jurcina (minus-23) and Columbus' Rick Nash (minus-22) sit in the bottom two spots.
Minus
Justin Faulk — Having a 19-year-old defenseman playing 20 minutes every night — actually 25:39 against the Avs — means you're going to have some growing pains along the way, Faulk's turnover that led to O`Reilly's game-winner was the second of two bad giveaways on the night for the rookie. On the whole Faulk had another good night, leading the team with four hits and adding two blocked shots. But defensemen are often judged on the mistakes they make, not the plays they make. Faulk's mistakes are what will be remembered from Friday.
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I’m willing to give him a pass. He is skating hard. The first turnover was just a bad bounce, and then he tripped over his own skates. It happens. The second seems like everyone else had just quit skating and left him all alone, out on an island, with no one to outlet the puck to. With 5 seconds left he should have just had someone to play catch with, burning the clock, or getting it in deep, but all his line mates seem like they were all skating towards the bench getting ready for a shootout. Even Johnny F. commented that you have to play to the buzzer. The kid is probably beating himself up over this game but I don’t think he should be. We are fortunate to have him. Better he get these mistakes/lessons out of the way now than next year in a game 7 when it really counts.
Not to be confused with CoastalCane.
Clarity for Point 2
You kept mentioning Hartford/Carolina PLAYERS when I think you meant to say GOALTENDERS. Also it is kind of pathetic that only 8 goaltenders in the history of our franchise have played in the NHL.
thx .. yes, that’s what I meant. Fixed.
by Cory Lavalette on Feb 13, 2012 9:01 AM EST up reply actions
How to Make it to the Playoffs in 2012-2013;
The Hurricanes are 7-4-5 since Jan. 1st. As Bob points out the Hurricanes are 2-11 in overtime and shootouts this season. Those figures are indicative of the fact that over all the Hurricanes since the arrival of Muller are as presently constituted almost built to the make the playoffs.
Being the worst in the NHL at getting wins in overtime and in shootouts is more of a positive sign than sign of distress. With some adjustments in personnel offensively the overtime/shootout losses should become overtime/shootout wins. Defensively, the Hurricanes can look to improvement from within the ranks. The return of Pitkanen and the development of Faulk, McBain, Murphy, and Dumoulin will bring more offensive firepower on the defensive side. The Hurricanes also have Joslin and Sanguinetti, as well as prospects such as Rissanen, Krueger, Alt, Lowe, Levy, and Jordan.
What is unlikely to happen is that Cam Ward will suddenly become the NHL’s best shootout goalie. On the other hand, the more goals the Hurricanes score, the more weight can be taken off Ward’s shoulder’s to be perfect. The Hurricanes have many of the pieces they need already in place. Muller and his coaching staff also are doing a good job of using the players to the players’ best strengths.
The next challenge is going to be re-signing Ruutu. If Ruutu re-signs, the Hurricanes are probably only (1) the selection of Yakupov, Girgorenko, Galychenyuk, or Forsberg and (2) the signing of an immediate impact top six forward away from being a playoff team. The main prize for 2012 UFAs is Parise. The more risky prize, at a high price, but more importantly both as risk and as reward due to the long contract, is Jeff Carter. Parise is a no risk player in that he has the heart of a warrior; and his work ethic and skills on Staal’s line would be a thing of beauty. Semin is another high risk/high reward player with an artists personality. If Muller and MacLean could ever tap into his talent and get him committed, he’d be a Malkin type of dominating player. Penner is another man child who is floundering in his career; and is another high risk/high reward player.
The Hurricanes organization over the next two weeks will be giving important clues as to its commitment as an organization to making the hard but necessary choices to move into a top tier team. Hiring Muller and MacLean are two very significant positive signs. Neither are the kind of people to take jobs unless they were convinced they’d have all the organization support, including financial commitment, to be successful. The signing of Gleason to an extension is another positive sign. The discussion of signing Ruutu to an extension is yet another positive sign; and if that extension comes to fruition, it’s even clearer that Karmanos is ready to take the Hurricanes organization to the next level.
For me, one final step in the next two weeks will be to see who is traded at the trade deadline and what is obtained in return. These next steps are not going to be pain free. The Hurricanes have to evolve into a top six team; and it means adding some talent and jettisoning some players to make room for more talented players. No pain, no gain.
"The discussion of signing Ruutu to an extension is yet another positive sign; and if that extension comes to fruition, it’s even clearer that Karmanos is ready to take the Hurricanes organization to the next level."
How is re-signing a second-line forward/center (currently playing on the first line) who has been part of a team missing the playoffs 3 straight seasons a sign K is taking this to the next level?
Trading Gleason, Ruutu, and others for serious upgrades and/or picks, now THAT would be a clear indication the team is committed to taking this thing up a notch.
Re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic? Nothing new.
"Look into my eyes and repeat after me: I will vacation in Ontario. I will vacation in Ontario. I will vacation in Ontario..."
by Capt. Stinky on Feb 13, 2012 8:22 AM EST up reply actions
Perhaps the many teams searching for Ruutu or a similar player and prepared to pay Ruutu a significant salary over a long term simply lack the insight to understand the error of their ways.
And if one of them happens to snag him… welcome back to the top six Chad LaRose.
by Jamie Kellner on Feb 13, 2012 9:32 AM EST up reply actions
oh come on now, Ruutu isn’t being looked at as a first liner anywhere, please. on OUR team he’s a first liner, elsewhere he’s a plug-in for the playoffs. I’m saying his value has never been higher, we can get a big return, doing so would show a committment to improvement, keeping him and not getting anyone else of note is just the status quo.
"Look into my eyes and repeat after me: I will vacation in Ontario. I will vacation in Ontario. I will vacation in Ontario..."
by Capt. Stinky on Feb 13, 2012 9:51 AM EST up reply actions
and also
You can attempt to make a handshake agreement to offer the same deal to him in the offseason. If he wants to win, he should understand what the team can get for him and that he can come back after making a cup run somewhere else for the same contract they’re offering now. Pull a Corvo and deal him for some package and then bring him back in the offseason. You get his haul for the trade and him back for his 2nd line position.
by The Gottfather on Feb 13, 2012 9:58 AM EST up reply actions
The problem with your logic is there are no “serious upgrades” that could be had for Gleason and Ruutu. Draft picks are a crap shoot that will take years to develop and a playoff contending team is not going to pick in the lottery. A serious upgrade would include keeping your productive players and then adding to that by signing a free agent (Parise) in the offseason. I only saw two UFA forwards with more goals than Ruutu….Parise and Teemu Selanne. How can a team with offensive production issues allow your leading goal scorer to leave?
In Kirk we Trust
This. It’s nice to rearrange the core of the team, but only when you can improve by doing it. Trading Gleason and Ruutu would put us in a worse spot next year since there are no FA forwards or defensemen that we could sign to replace them.
The Canes need significant upgrades to compete next year as a bubble team. Simply re-signing Ruutu and Gleason to overpaid contracts won’t cut it. $5 million for Ruutu is getting in the area of negative cost-benefit long term for the Canes.
by JussiJuice on Feb 13, 2012 5:08 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Well for this fan
the loss to the Avs was “avoidable” . bit it is what is it is…And yes faulk probably felt like a fresh turd…but considering how far he has come this season…I too will give him a pass…and if i could talk with JR i’d ay this..either resign Ruutu now or quit kjacking around…there is some serious hockey to be played…and as captain of the ship cal;l the Hurricanes…how he piolts the ship is how it will either be smooth sailing or more troubled seas ahead for we the fans…
9/11/01 - Never Forget !!
Long Live #63 The Condor
Go Canes & Checkers !!!
For Faulk, from Sir Paul McCartney
In the end, the giveaways you make are equal to the plays you break.
Signing Ruutu
As one peruses the wish lists of other teams looking for gritty wingers with offensive skills Tuomo’s name is always the first name to arise. Always. Either everyone else sees him mistakenly as an asset to be desired, or some of us think two birds in the bush are better than one in the hand. His departure may get a return to fill a hole, but will simultaneously create another. If this were the beginning of free agency and JR were signing a winger with the same stats, grit and skill we would be thrilled to be adding him to our top six.
But for three things this team is solidly in the playoff hunt.
1.) Paul Maurice’s 25 game study in team demotivation.
2.) Special team play; PP, PK and especially 4v4.
3.) Uncharacteristically horrible starts for Ward and Staal.
(Note: The second two might actually be part of the first.)
The biggest of the problems created by Mo was a porous team defense. That seems to have been cured without Pitkanen and with massive OJT for a 19 year old. Our biggest risk next season is we are counting on unproven defensive newbies to replace the tenured and steady Allen and Spacek.
This is not to say that there isn’t plenty of room to improve our offensive talent lavel. But given a top 3 draft choice, the fact none of our forwards are on the back side of the age curve, the steady improvement and experience the call ups gain this year our offense is already better next year. But we have no NHL ready defenseman in the pipeline and we cannot afford to backslide at all defensively next season.
It isnt a matter of whether or not the Canes want Ruutu, it is a matter of whether or not he is willing to sign to the Canes for a reasonalble salary before becoming a UFA (fact: the majority of pending UFAs want to test their market value).
If Ruutu wont re-sign mid season, JR has to trade his lest losing him for absolutely nothing which is by far the worst case scenario.
This team is still not a Playoff competitor. Even under Muller, they are still the worst team in the east by a comfortable margin. It will take at least a top line forward (Yakupov, Grigorenko?) and a 1st pairing shutdown D to give the Canes a shot at the 6th-8th Playoff spot next year.
by JussiJuice on Feb 13, 2012 11:18 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Not the worst ... at least since Jan 1st
Since January 1st the Hurricanes are at dead even in team plus/minus. 100 % of the current 30 point negative was 2011 play. 5 of the 39 goals against in 2012 are due to the inability to score 4v4 in OT.
Your points are nuts on. A top draft pick is a major part of team improvement. A close look at the March schedule makes that possibility very, very likely. A top defenseman is as high a priority, but I worry few others are noting that fact. Ruutu gets to choose if he stays at the value JR sets for him this week or chooses to test the waters on July 1st. Without a contract by months end he will be gone. Hopefully that will yield at least his eventual replacement and significant sweeteners.
But losing Ruutu would put us back another top 6 forward. So great, we manage to get a top line forward from the draft. But we still would need at least two more to be a contender.
It isnt simply a matter of losing or re-signing Ruutu. As a UFA it is 100% his decision where he goes, it isn’t as if JR is refusing to sign him. JR could throw $8 million a year at him, that would probably be a magic wand, but that isn’t how being a GM works.
True, if Ruutu leaves and doesn’t want to come back July 1 then we need to sign another forward. Maybe a more affordable one like Boyes, Hudler, Grabovski, Parenteau, etc. JR knows the team lacks talent, he wont let Ruutu go without some replacement. Hopefully his latest round of bargain bin hopefuls will convince him we need actual talent.
by JussiJuice on Feb 13, 2012 5:05 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Wouldn't #2
be affected by Ruutu? Looking at the salary he currently commands and most likely will command in the future, he would/should be able to help more with the PK, PP and 4on4. He has 4 PPP this season and only 16 last season. He usually does well on the PK, but if the PK is one of our problems and he’s on one of the units… He’s a solid player, but his perceived value at this point might be more than his actual value.
by The Gottfather on Feb 13, 2012 11:31 AM EST up reply actions
He usually does well on the PK? Tuomo doesn’t kill penalties.
by Jamie Kellner on Feb 13, 2012 11:33 AM EST up reply actions
Sorry
that was supposed to be over his career. Any reason why he hasn’t been put back out there? Just wondering if anyone has a reason why a defensively responsible forward with considerable talent wouldn’t get a shot at it this season. Especially, since we know he can occasionally take draws.
by The Gottfather on Feb 13, 2012 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
The Ruutu Saga
Bob McKenzie is reporting that it will not be until later in the week before a resolution is reached, one way or the other, about Ruutu. The Fourth Period is reporting a number of teams are inquiring about Ruutu.
http://www.thefourthperiod.com/news/car120213.html
I wonder if in this interim period a GM or two won’t make “an offer Jim Rutherford cannot refuse” for Ruutu.
Someone’s going to put a horse head in his bed?
by Cory Lavalette on Feb 13, 2012 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
Personally, I think if Ruutu wasn’t signed by now there is a low likelihood he will be re-signed. Every day past JR’s public statement of negotiations lessens this chance even more.
If he really is asking $5+ million, he probably wouldn’t mind testing the market, as his right, to see if he could find a ridiculous deal from some desperate GM (likely).
In the end I think he will be traded. There are obviously teams willing to go into a bidding war for him, JR will find a great deal. I think it is certainly possible the deal Ruutu will find come July 1 could be from the Canes and he will return. But if he is dead-set on testing his value on the open market, nothing JR can really do right now. As the 15/15 team in the East the Canes can’t really afford to let him walk for absolutely nothing.
by JussiJuice on Feb 13, 2012 11:45 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Has anybody else noticed the differences in contract negotiations between the Finns. Joni has signed 2 contracts with Carolina and those 2 contracts went relatively smoothly. Jussi has also signed 2 contracts with Carolina and both went well, you could even argue that Jussi took a good portion less than what he could have gotten on both contracts.
This is Ruutu’s 3rd “negotiation” with JR. The 1st went very smooth, the 2nd was a little drawn out and almost went to arbitration, and this one seems to be going about the same as the 2nd. Why have 2 of the Finns been so easy to resign and Ruutu has been much more difficult? It seems like Joni & Jussi are willing to “play ball” with JR and his restrictive budget, but Ruutu does not seem to follow his fellow Finns.
JR; please dump some players and bring the kids up to stay!
by PackPride17 on Feb 13, 2012 11:56 AM EST up reply actions
Neither Jussi or Joni were negotiating during the season, on a road trip, around games.
Also, didn’t JR supposedly report that he didn’t expect to sign either Joni or Jussi, before he did?
by Jamie Kellner on Feb 13, 2012 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
Still, based on the previous negotiations; Ruutu (and his agent) have been much more difficult to deal with (from an outsiders point of view).
And Gleason’s contract negotiation during this season seemed to go pretty smooth.
JR; please dump some players and bring the kids up to stay!
by PackPride17 on Feb 13, 2012 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
“From an outsiders point of view”
That’s all this is. No one really knows anything about how difficult (or easy) any of the negotiations are, so we’re all just making stuff up.
We have no idea what went on behind the scenes with Gleason’s negotiations. The fact they were private are no indication as to how much back and forth there might have been between the parties.
One could argue that by taking himself off the market for offer sheets by filing for arbitration, and by giving us a vehicle (that would not have otherwise existed) for buying out the last year of Frank Kaberle’s contract after finding a replacement in Aaron Ward, Ruutu’s 2009 off-season negotiations were a help to the organization, not a hindrance.
And if the negotiations were so difficult before, why put yourself through that, when a trade would seem to be such an obvious easy path to take?
It’s all posturing, all of it.
by Jamie Kellner on Feb 13, 2012 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
Ok, I admitted it is from an outsiders point of view. But from that perspective; does it not look like negotiations between JR & Ruutu are a lot more difficult than negotiations between JR & Joni/Jussi/Timmy? You have to admit it at least looks that way and that is all I’m trying to say.
JR; please dump some players and bring the kids up to stay!
Not really. But then part of my job involves negotiating big contracts so I’m kind of used to what really goes on behind the scenes versus what’s played out in public.
by Jamie Kellner on Feb 13, 2012 5:54 PM EST up reply actions
Whether it is inflation, salary creep, or supply and demand top 6 wingers have been increasing benchmark salaries since the lockout. Cole at his numbers appeared overpaid by Montreal in amount and term last summer. Today it looks more reasonable. Keeping Ruutu at that contract level now looks like a home team discount. JR needs to keep this inflationary spiral in mind this week as he negotiates with Ruutu. Ruutu agent is only doing his job in reminding both parties of this fact.
Creating an Environment in Which a Player Like Parise Would Want to Sign
Players like Parise have plenty of choices where to go. Part of the role of Jim Rutherford is to create an environment, including the mix of superstars, stars, and support players, that would convince a player like Parise that the organization is committed to winning. I don’t know whether Rutherford and Ruutu’s agent are going to work out a deal. However, the idea that the Hurricanes can simply wave money in front of players like Parise and they will automatically sign a contract seems quite far-fetched to me.
As far as I am concerned the best path is for Jim Rutherford to sign Ruutu to an extension. If that does not happen, the next best course is to trade Ruutu at a high return to a team where Ruutu would be a rental player and could re-sign with the Hurricanes.
The trade and re-sign very rarely happens though. Off the top of my head, I can only think of twice: Glen Wesley and Keith Tkachuk. And both guys had deep, deep roots with the teams they ended up returning to.
by Cory Lavalette on Feb 13, 2012 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
Corvo?
Once, during Prohibition, I was forced to live for days on nothing but food and water ~ W.C. Fields
by SouthernHockeyFan on Feb 13, 2012 2:02 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
I had the same reaction to the idea that Ruutu would be traded, go on the open market, and then get signed by the Hurricanes. I don’t see that outcome as very likely. One can always argue it could happen; and if it did, it would be perhaps the ideal solution in terms of having received a huge premium for renting out a player for the playoff run. It rarely works out the way it is planned. I much, much prefer to see Jim Rutherford sign Ruutu soon to an extension.
Doug Weight and Mark Recchi.
But it is rare, and risky, and seems to be more appropriate for players closer to the end of their career that already have established long term roots, homes, kids in local schools, etc.
by Jamie Kellner on Feb 13, 2012 2:06 PM EST up reply actions
I dont think it would be impossible that Ruutu overinflates his own value, goes to the market, cant find a much better contract than the Canes are offering, and signs where he already likes to play. I believe this is what happened to Corvo.
The only downside the Canes have is the inability to give huge signing bonuses, perks, and front loaded contracts.
by JussiJuice on Feb 13, 2012 5:14 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
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