How to Fit Parise and Skinner In to the Budget

by C-Leaguer on Feb 8, 2012 1:08 PM EST

I've had a few things bubbling through my head since the Gleason signing and haven't found a good way to express them. Quite frankly they are so humongous big. There has been a discussion on the Stewart thread about if it's possible to fit Skinner and Parise in to the Canes budget. In a rare rare occurence I agreed with Doug and said it was possible. Cory disagreed, discussions were had, and I felt it better to create this area for that discussion. Since this also worked as a good way to get to some of the thoughts and help me organize them I thought I'd take that opportunity.

In an effort to clear things up I brought the data regarding the Canes from Capgeek.com in to a spreadsheet so we could do some scenario testing. A couple of quick hits on the scenario I looked at:

1) I am looking only at salary pay out and not cap hit. This is how the Canes budget so this is how the analysis will be conducted.

2) I'm assuming that all bonuses will be paid to rookies on ELC contracts. This is a max salary pay out assumption which means that if not all bonuses are paid the team will not have as high of a salary outlay as I am forecasting.

3) I tried to err on the high side on potential contracts other than Ruutu's ($4.8 per year for 4 years, and Parise at $8.25M). I've got Nodl in at $1M and Dwyer in at a $1M contract. These seem high to me, but again, I thought better to err that way.

4) I'm making some expectations of rookies, but I think they're acceptable. I

have Murphy on the team next year. I have Doumolin and a Rookie forward the year after. I'm fairly comfortable with the rookie forward as they would take A Stewart's spot.

5) I'm assuming Joni and LaRose are traded, but I'm not assuming anything coming back. This isn't to say those two can't be parlayed in to something more than a salary dump, I'm sure they can. I just don't know what that is and so I'm not going to conjecture. Personally I think this assumption also errs on the side of higher salary pay out, but there's a case either way.

So, the sheet is here. If need be check out "scenario test 1" tab at the bottom. *edit:I changed the link and added the ability for all to see. It should work now.*

What are the quick facts? 21 players at $53.195M in 2012-13, $59.275M for 20 players in 2013-14, and $47.925M for 14 players in 2014-15.

The salary jump to $53.195M represents only about a $3M increase over the projections going in to this season, which is roughly in keeping with how much PK jumps the salary each year. The $6M jump from 2012-13 to 2013-14 is significant, but remember that the new TV deal and new Radio deal will be in place that year as will a new CBA not to mention any dispersal that could be had from the league sale of the Coyotes. $48M for 14 players in 2014-15 also allows the team to turn over quite a bit in a few years and shed salary obligations if they wish to go in a different direction.

Personally, I don't know that i would want the team to sign Parise. I'd prefer to spend the money on two players and get depth in the top 6 as opposed to spending it all on Parise. That said, the numbers seem to work out. The team can sign Parise and not hinder themselves long term. If you want a copy of the spreadsheet to do your own scenarios let me know. I think I can add sheets for you or allow others to make changes.

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Comments

Agree with not signing Parise.

I think he is a great player, but i would rather add a more physical power forward type and watch Skinner become the next Parise.

Just because I don't care doesn't mean I don't understand.

by HockeyHick74 on Feb 8, 2012 3:13 PM EST reply actions

Let me throw this out there….just recently (last hour or so WRAL and ESPN is reporting JR has decided to treat resigning Ruutu as a top priority. Seems like the conversation between those two went well. There you go……and here we go again.

Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him.
Sun Tzu circa 4th Century BC

by hurricanefever on Feb 9, 2012 4:53 PM EST reply actions

Game Changer

Parise would be a game changer in terms of talent. I would think this would payoff at the ticket office as well with better attendance. I for one would welcome that upgrade and I believe he would make the other players around him better by forcing the defenders to pick their poison in terms of defensive pairings.

In Kirk we Trust

by Mullett on Feb 10, 2012 8:54 AM EST reply actions

Ruutu is a solid performer, but Parise is a game-changer. I would let Ruutu walk and set my sights on Parise. Let the flaming begin…

"The Carolina Hurricanes will keep President and General Manager Jim Rutherford for at least four more years after resigning him to a contract extension that runs through the 2015-16 season."

by Capt. Stinky on Feb 10, 2012 9:29 AM EST up reply actions

I think you need both

A team this devoid of scoring needs both; Joni and Spacek gone saves Parise type salary. (4.5 plus 3.8).

Gleason – Allen (or someone equivalent)
Faulk – Harrison
Joslin – McBain

Plus you have Murphy or another young defensemen who could step in.

In Kirk we Trust

by Mullett on Feb 10, 2012 9:44 AM EST up reply actions

It would be nice to dream about Parise in a Canes uniform but I put the chances of that happened at close to zero. Parise is already on record as saying he want to maximize his new contract (money and term) and play for a contender (we are not there yet). Even if we get his bargaining rights he walks July 1. I fail to see the logic of paying anything for Parise when he controls his own destiny. Does anyone see Parise jumping at the chance to play for the Canes as currently structured?

At least Ruutu wants to play for the Canes.

Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him.
Sun Tzu circa 4th Century BC

by hurricanefever on Feb 10, 2012 9:45 AM EST up reply actions

I agree with you. Parise already has stated he wnats to play for a contender. That eliminates us in his mind I would think.

by FoxtrotSierra on Feb 10, 2012 3:59 PM EST up reply actions

I think letting Ruutu walk and going after Parise leaves the team too thin. In this test scenario I’m still assuming either Tlusty or Dalpe in the top 6. If you go with Parise instead of Ruutu then you’ve got to have both in the top 6, and well, then we’re kind of in the same place we are today with not enough top 6 talent by at least two.

All things being equal I would likely keep Ruutu, then look for a guy like Shane Doan or Jarret Stoll to sign and then look for a trade for a forward using Joni and LaRose. Team would have more depth and a guy like Dalpe, Bowman, this years first, or Rask, would be able to play on a third line with Sutter and Tlusty, which would be a situation where they could succeed.

As I said, there are a number of options open to the Canes this off-season. Not much is off the table.

Is there a better time of year than the NHL Trade Deadline?

by C-Leaguer on Feb 10, 2012 10:32 AM EST up reply actions

My concern?

No changes…. SO far:

Staal Tlusty Ruutu… all back next season
Skinner Jokinen ?? Need a top six guy here (or Ruutu and top six with Staal)
Sutter Dwyer ?? (Nodl? Bowman? Dalpe? Nash? DaDonov? I’m wary of JR signing Nodl back and expect it, so no new blood here either)
Brent LaRose Stewart… all back next season (oy ve)

So the only available spot next year—the only change to the roster would be ONE winger and no spots for Charlotte prospects. And, if JR does go and sign a vet top six winger, and we do manage to pick up a top prospect like Forsberg or Galchenyuk or Grigorenko, there’s no spt for them either.

To me it’s obvious we need to move Stewart and LaRose, and not re-sign Nodl to open a spot for either Bowman, Nash, Dalpe or draft pick….

Or we admit all our prospects are a bust, and future prospects better worry about ever getting and opportunity to play on this team unless you’re a top first round pick…

by Squeaky83 on Feb 10, 2012 11:17 AM EST up reply actions

Boychuk is the only first rounder that is underpreforming. The rest are second and third round players. I wouldn’t call them busts, just not exceeding expectations. If you take a look at this article Scott Cullen did on the value of draft picks a few years ago (one he mentioned he might update before this years trade deadline) you can see what value you can expect out of a pick. Dalpe was taken at #45. That’s got an average value of 2.80. A 2 is a minor leaguer who maybe gets a shot in the NHL, and a 3 is a Very good minor leaguer. I’d say Dalpe is right in that with still the potential to improve.

Is there a better time of year than the NHL Trade Deadline?

by C-Leaguer on Feb 10, 2012 12:48 PM EST up reply actions

I sort of agree that looking for one top 6 winger will be hard enough. If Ruutu is gone looking for two seems to be outside of the range of a miracle JR would be expected to perform.

Few people have argued against the notion that a top 6 winger is the #1 priority for next season. I don’t think JR will be able to do that at the deadline but rather it becomes an after July 1 task. I think it is still possible JR might be able to do something at the draft but the assets he could have used to do that will be significantly reduced if he signs Ruutu.

Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him.
Sun Tzu circa 4th Century BC

by hurricanefever on Feb 10, 2012 11:55 AM EST up reply actions

Joni and LaRose will be very valuable at the draft. Joni’s contract is pretty affordable and has two years on it. LaRose I think could make a great fit on a team looking for a third line player who can do a number of small things. He should have a couple of extra seconds to deal with when Allen and Spacek are traded. Right there you’ve got the makings of a system to bring in a decent forward.

Is there a better time of year than the NHL Trade Deadline?

by C-Leaguer on Feb 10, 2012 12:39 PM EST up reply actions

I am not all sure that JR will be willing to give up Joni. I am not sure that any current Canes D can fill in what Joni brings on the back end. He is an anchor D with skill and stamina. When Joni gave the hometown discount on his current contract that pretty much told me that if Joni plays at his current level JR will not be able to replace Joni on the open market at the same price. Granted we might have prospects who can eventually become what Joni brings but interesting it may take another couple of years to get there, the term left on Joni’s current contract.

The question might be can Allen, Spacek and LaRose in a packaged combination of some sort yield a top winger. I don’t think so. It will take something else and bigger to do that. Likely the 1st Round pick and one or two of the above and perhaps a B prospect. I am not sure JR wants to give up that 1st round pick and would prefer to “buy” a top winger this summer.

Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him.
Sun Tzu circa 4th Century BC

by hurricanefever on Feb 10, 2012 12:59 PM EST up reply actions

You are correct when you say that JR doesn’t have a D that can replace Joni. That said, Joni has been out quite a while now, and the D is really playing quite well. One only needs to look at Cam’s stats to see his SV%age up aroun .913 and his GAA back down to 2.77 to realize that ship is righting itself. The question I think for JR needs to be “do I bring back Joni and try to get better on D, or keep relatively the same D, and trade Joni to get another good forward?” Allen will be traded, but I could see him coming back on a 2 year $6M deal. Spacek will be traded, but he can be replaced on the market or potentially from within by a draft pick. The options for acquiring a forward are more limited. The options out there aren’t that great at forward, so a trade makes a lot of sense.

Personally, I would pursue a trade of Joni for a top 6 forward, including either LaRose of Boychuk to try and make the pieces work. I think the canes have more need at forward going forward. Joni’s contract should make him quite attractive to a number of teams. A decent return, even including a young forward who would be an RFA when his existing contract is complete, isn’t out of the picture.

I do see and understand the other side of the coin, and, as I’ve said repeatedly, there are numerous options out there for the Canes to explore this season.

Is there a better time of year than the NHL Trade Deadline?

by C-Leaguer on Feb 10, 2012 2:05 PM EST up reply actions

All are good points…..but I keep coming back to the hypothetical of where the Canes might be now if Joni were in the line-up. It would seem our overall defense would have even been better than what we have seen over the last 30 days or so. Joni could have made everyone, including Cam better. Joni has been out so long I think we forget just how much he does contribute to the whole team effort. I would hate to lose that.

The other part of that is chemistry with the other Finns. I have been thinking that part of Jussi’s problem this year is because he does not have his Finn buddy Joni in the line-up with him. Pure speculation of course. If Ruutu is signed that is more reason to keep Jussi and Ruutu with Joni.

The body of positives about keeping Joni just seem to out-weight the body of negatives that result if traded. I just don’t think JR is willing to sort out and deal with the causes and effects of a Joni trade, especially since he already has a full platter of other things to do.

But hey…….JR has proven this year he might have broken his old habits. Who’s to say what he will do with any of the current roster? Got me guessing more and more importantly, he has got the other GM’s guessing and second guessing. I guess that is a good thing after all.

Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him.
Sun Tzu circa 4th Century BC

by hurricanefever on Feb 10, 2012 2:39 PM EST up reply actions

I’m not sure how much better the defense can be. Since the first of the year Cam has given up 24 goals in 14 games (He didn’t play Nashville). I’m using Cam’s GA because that eliminates empty net goals. That’s 1.7 per game. On an 82 game season that 141 rounding up. To put that in perspective 21 teams have given up more than 141 goals already this season and two other have given up only 141 goals. I know those totals include empty net goals, so it’s not a true apples to apples comparison, but I still think it’s illuminating. There’s only so much better the defense can play. The marginal value of Pitkanen over say a McBain is small.

In that last 15 games (14 cam played + Nashville) the team has gone 7-4-4 (They lost to Nashville, so Cam is 7-3-4). To be giving up so few goals and not putting up more points means to me that the issue is really at forward. I think the marginal value over replacemtn of a forward that could be brought back for a trade involving Joni is higher than keeping Joni.

You make an interesting point about Jussi Jokinen’s play. is it possible being with Joni would hurt his play? I think it’s possible, but I’d be willing to role the dice on that one. I think Jussi’s issues came earlier in the season when he was playing at center, and continue to come from playing in a top 6 that doesn’t actually have 6 forwards that should be in the top 6. Tlusty or LaRose or whoever is slotted there is a compromise at best. Replacing that not-top-6 player with a true top 6 player, especially if it’s a center, I think provides the better value over retaining Joni.

This isn’t to say I want Joni out the door. I like him and what he does. I think he’s one of the best defenders out there when you consider his versatility. That said, my only desire is to see this team win more games and I think trading Joni at the draft provides the best course for winning more games.

Is there a better time of year than the NHL Trade Deadline?

by C-Leaguer on Feb 10, 2012 3:21 PM EST up reply actions

OK…….but Joni has only played 21 games this season. Some say it was the best he has ever played in his career (except the 2 or 3 games he played injured). If you go back that far and then move forward, the possibilities are infinite. If he had played all games would he have effected the outcome of our current standing in the League? I am not sure I can puzzle that one out……but it is clear that when Joni and Skinner went down this was a different (bad) team than at the beginning of the season.

I am going to have to disagree with you and say that Joni belongs in the “core” group. Trading would be a mistake in my opinion. He is a D you surround other D who complement and enhance. To be honest there are no current D including Timmy and Faulk that you would want to do this with and no prospects are even close.

I think you hit on the solution in another of your post somewhere. You can have your cake and eat it too….. JR will have more money, JR is on record somewhere that he will be competitive for a top forward in the market place. He does not have to trade Joni to do that. He can buy a forward with draft picks and prospects from a team with an top RFA that he can make a good deal with them now till the draft or trade deadline. Or, he can aggressively seek both UFA and RFA after July 1. That might work and he still has Joni.

Lastly, Joni is a valuable asset, one that should be held. But Joni does not have a no-trade as far as I know so JR can trade him anytime. Why not wait to see if these other things work before doing a big trade with Joni as a centerpiece?

Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him.
Sun Tzu circa 4th Century BC

by hurricanefever on Feb 10, 2012 4:03 PM EST up reply actions

This pretty much illustrates my concerns. You have a $59 million payroll in 2013-14.

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by Cory Lavalette on Feb 10, 2012 12:00 PM EST reply actions

And, new TV deal will bring in how much? an extra $2 or $3 per if not more if MASN becomes a serious player? A new Radio deal, extra $500K? PK should be saving money on debt service now that he sold a portion of the team and used that to pay down debt. 5% of $20M is $1M, so it’s conceivable he’s saving that much on debt service per year now. Winnipeg not taking revenue sharing should up the Canes allocation. Conservatively let’s call that $200K. Start adding that up.

$2.5 for new TV and Radio
$500K debt service savings
$200k extra revenue sharing

That’s over $3M a year right there. We haven’t even begun to look at how the new NA TV deals will impact things nor the sale of the international TV Rights.

The team started out with a payroll budget of close to $51M this year. A jump to $53 next year is perfectly in line with payroll escalation in years past. A jump to $55M would represent the background growth for the 2013-14 season. Add to it the $3M+ I’ve identified above and $59M isn’t unreasonable at all. And all of that is before you factor in any playoff revenue at all. I’ve also not looked at any dispersal from the sale of the Coyotes or any increased revenue sharing that would come along if the Coyotes were to move to a location such as Seattle or Quebec City that did not require revenue sharing. I’ve also not looked at any changes to revenue sharing that may come out of the next CBA, or the impact to salaries if player share of revenue dropped from 57% current levels to something more similar to the NBA deal which gave players 53%. All of those would make the numbers work more in Karamanos’ favor, not less.

I’ve also been quite generous on my salaries. Is McBain really a $2M per year player? You yourself said $1.25m. There’s $750K savings. What about Nodl and Dwyer both at $1M? Tlusty at $1.4M? There is even some flexibility in the $4.8M for Ruutu. There’s a potential to come in $1.5M to $2.0M less than the $59.275M I’m forecasting. Even if that drops only $1.275M, which isn’t that tough if McBain comes in at the $1.25M number you posited previously, than the salary level jumps to only $58M. You figure the typical background growth we’ve seen in salaries of $2M per year and start at $51M as the basis for this year that only leaves a $3M gap to fill in two seasons.

The potential exists. It exists in such a way that it can be incorporated in to the constraints the team will have. As I said above, I’m not sure that if I were GM I would pursue Parise over other paths, but as a though experiment I would say it’s possible to do that and to be in a decent salary position in 2013-14 and even beyond.

Is there a better time of year than the NHL Trade Deadline?

by C-Leaguer on Feb 10, 2012 12:33 PM EST up reply actions

A lot of ifs here

First question would be is this a team he would want to sign with? Would he be content with being a possible playoff contender or a team that is totally committed to making the playoffs year in and year out with a good shot at winning the cup? I’m a big fan, just not sure we have the financial resources to be a quality team year in and year out regardless of what deals are made. We are more suited to be a franchise like when we won the cup. Take the risk if there is a shot, otherwise, we can’t afford to burn this amount of cash.

by Pissed Penguin on Feb 12, 2012 3:25 PM EST reply actions