I've had a few things bubbling through my head since the Gleason signing and haven't found a good way to express them. Quite frankly they are so humongous big. There has been a discussion on the Stewart thread about if it's possible to fit Skinner and Parise in to the Canes budget. In a rare rare occurence I agreed with Doug and said it was possible. Cory disagreed, discussions were had, and I felt it better to create this area for that discussion. Since this also worked as a good way to get to some of the thoughts and help me organize them I thought I'd take that opportunity.
In an effort to clear things up I brought the data regarding the Canes from Capgeek.com in to a spreadsheet so we could do some scenario testing. A couple of quick hits on the scenario I looked at:
1) I am looking only at salary pay out and not cap hit. This is how the Canes budget so this is how the analysis will be conducted.
2) I'm assuming that all bonuses will be paid to rookies on ELC contracts. This is a max salary pay out assumption which means that if not all bonuses are paid the team will not have as high of a salary outlay as I am forecasting.
3) I tried to err on the high side on potential contracts other than Ruutu's ($4.8 per year for 4 years, and Parise at $8.25M). I've got Nodl in at $1M and Dwyer in at a $1M contract. These seem high to me, but again, I thought better to err that way.
4) I'm making some expectations of rookies, but I think they're acceptable. I
have Murphy on the team next year. I have Doumolin and a Rookie forward the year after. I'm fairly comfortable with the rookie forward as they would take A Stewart's spot.
5) I'm assuming Joni and LaRose are traded, but I'm not assuming anything coming back. This isn't to say those two can't be parlayed in to something more than a salary dump, I'm sure they can. I just don't know what that is and so I'm not going to conjecture. Personally I think this assumption also errs on the side of higher salary pay out, but there's a case either way.
So, the sheet is here. If need be check out "scenario test 1" tab at the bottom. *edit:I changed the link and added the ability for all to see. It should work now.*
What are the quick facts? 21 players at $53.195M in 2012-13, $59.275M for 20 players in 2013-14, and $47.925M for 14 players in 2014-15.
The salary jump to $53.195M represents only about a $3M increase over the projections going in to this season, which is roughly in keeping with how much PK jumps the salary each year. The $6M jump from 2012-13 to 2013-14 is significant, but remember that the new TV deal and new Radio deal will be in place that year as will a new CBA not to mention any dispersal that could be had from the league sale of the Coyotes. $48M for 14 players in 2014-15 also allows the team to turn over quite a bit in a few years and shed salary obligations if they wish to go in a different direction.
Personally, I don't know that i would want the team to sign Parise. I'd prefer to spend the money on two players and get depth in the top 6 as opposed to spending it all on Parise. That said, the numbers seem to work out. The team can sign Parise and not hinder themselves long term. If you want a copy of the spreadsheet to do your own scenarios let me know. I think I can add sheets for you or allow others to make changes.